from the studios of farm journal broadcast, this is us farm report welcome to u.s. farm report. i'm tyne morgan, and here's what we're working on for you this first weekend of fall. it's a wave of ag mergers on the hot seat in washington... i pose a question whether some mergers are simply too big to fix. a debate over competition, but those testifying calling it a win for farmers. it's a no go for a rate hike... we don't want the economy to overheat but hints a hike is still in store for 2016. from teh farm to the finish line... it's so amazing to me just hte lack of education that the public has on what hte ag industry goes through,let's talk food takes center stage at chicagoland speedway. and in john's world... where does food

related news, a whole of hype, with little action. that's how you can characterize the federal reserve meeting this week where officials announced they're leaving interest rates unchanged for another month. fed chair janet yellen annoucing wednesday te hike before the new year. yellen says the fed is watching continued progress in economic growth and a strenthening labor makret. the economy has shown evidence that there are more people who are being attracted back into the labor force so in that sense, i would characterize it as we've foudn the conomy has a bit more running room, never the less, we don't watn the economy to

some gradual increases will be apppropriate. yellen says the fed expects the economy to expand at moderate pace over next few years china could soon start accepting imports of u-s beef. at least that's what a chinese official promised during a speech in new york tuesday night. china's ban on u-s beef started in 2003 after the b-s-e scare. there's no exact timetable as to when imports will resume, but officals they recognize the u-s has very good beef, so why should they deny chinese customers that choice. the world's largest buyer of wheat could be in the market for more of the small grain. egypt is dumping it's zero tolderance policy on ergot, a common grain fungus. that regulation implemented last month basically shut down its access to global wheat. egypt will reinstate the previous tolerance level, and said it's being applied to both

prices weighing on dairy farmers this year, milk production is still on the rise. usda showing milk production in the nation's top 23 states reaching 16 point 7 billion pounds. that's up 2 percent from august of last year. teh largest increase year over year coming from texas, with production topping last year by 11 percent. nationally, production per cow hitting 19 hundred 20 pounds. that sets a new august record since officials started keeping tabs in 2003. harvest nationwide is n crop is harvested, that's 3 points behind average. soybeans are 4 percent harvested, lagging a point behind the 5-year average. cotton harvest is 6 percent complete, down a point. and sorghum--it's 29 percent harvested, right on track with average farmers in northern iowa and southern minnesota won't be harvesting anytime soon. torrential rains dropped as much

more inches could fall in that area over the next 5 days. tim malterer is in janesville, minnesota, that's the southern portion of the state. he received 13 inches of rain in two days. he says it i'll be a challenge to not just harest, but get the ccrops from the field to farm. those are the headlines...meteorologist cindi clawson is filling in for mike hoffman this week. cindi, fall is officially here, and it brought a lot of rain with it for some areas. yeah it's really been a slow mover we'l finally see it kicking out but it's ing off with the latest u s drought monitor mainly we continue to see not a lot of change over the last week that we still see some pretty odd serious dryness in parts of the northeast and parts of the southeast very little change out in the west in fact you could look at that for yourself over the past month you can see there really hasn't been a ton of change in much of the northeast and south is in fact it's gotten a little bit worse

at all here's a look at the forecast for the week ahead and this has been that system that tyne was just talking about and it was over in parts of montana that low was over of montana idaho and bringing a lot of rain there it's finally now moving into the eastern half of the country as we had into this week for missing windy conditions behind that low but look for snow showers and thunderstorms along that cold front into the south east high pressure settling in and much of the western united states it seems to be a quiet wednesday for a lot of the nation's midsection and into the west with that slow moving front still affecting many folks from the great lakes all the way down to the gulf coast down and of southern part of texas and northern parts of mexico as well. as we head into friday were thought to be looking at a little bit of rain in parts of the east united states still fairly quiet though in the nation's mid sections we might actually get some things done or at least allow some folks to dry out there i'm going

roundtables. don roose and andy shissler join me next. u.s. farm report brough tto you by mycogen seeds. visit mocogen dot com or your local mycogen seeds dealer about our relentless dedication to you. to you.

welcome back to u s farm report this weekend. on the round table andy shissler of sw trading and don roose of u.s.commodities i guess first we need to talk about this a big bean crop i have heard of some phenomoenal yields out there don you know i think you're on target when you look at it tyne, yields so far, are just really this coul dbe a year we're we are just over the top and i think you have to be a little bit fearful of remember with the eighty three million harvested acres each bushels eighty three million in additional bushels, so could be over four hundred million but you're right so far we have yields that are very large and

hether you have like iowa and minnesota with a some a risk fourteen inches of rain just crazy could make it difficult to get this crop about but at this point andy, does that matter since we have so many beans on our hands well we're getting yield numbers this week and some of the early fields getting harveted and we're hearing yields in illinois yields an eighty five eighty eight range a lot of seventy five i was making a joke with customers yesterday as were selling beans like a million u s party of twenty tomorrow markets always terrible when i'm on there i bothered over the depressed and that makes the guys actually know anything is anybody can figure that out. so that's kind of where we are today like these yields really there it's exceptionally large and it's everywhere i don't think you'll hardly find a field that's not very good in beans and knowing that i like the perfect august weather we never knew what it would do, you know how big it

seventy bushel beans in minnesota. it's a big yield. it really is we our hearing such these big green yields me how much do you think the usda needs to raise their yields forecast in the next report or how much will they? you know hopefully they go up gradually but looks like the way to go up a half almost to a bushel is not on a line i think the rule fear the market is one of we would have to go up one two bushels because er that with the fsa acres were probably even more on the acres by maybe a hundred to four hundred acres so you put that on top of it and then you look at some of the south american crop here that are off to pretty good planting starts so you know it feels like right now and need some weather problems from someplace else to kind of stabilized but technically we were close into the week and so we'll see what happens is next week if we follow through on the downside on that because harvest is going

you're right don, so based on these yields that we are hearing and based on the stocks situation do you think that there's room for this this bean price to go lower well i think what happened was we were pretty short on beans at the end of hte season. we had like cedar rapids basis trading forty five plus over rights a positive basis areas very very hot basis numbers like last year's crop size was wrong because acres weren't right is my opinion but so we're tied on stocks were waiting for harvest were getting the harvest is to get some now we saw cedar rapids go from forty five or three under and roy a couple days and so now that pass, i think we'll see a slow unwind on the bean market here as we we were kind of tight and we're not going ot be as tight i think we'll make new harvest lows and beans and he will challenge nine fifteen on the board is where i think we're headed to, i've always thought we'd go there and with these with these yields i think we're going there. that's my opininon.l you think we could go

remember is historically if you look back on his charge usually put a bottom in that first week of october and our bet is that we probably do something similar and it's also a situation where it's up to the producer how low we go i think the producer if he sells beans at the expense of corn you probably go little more than you think that nine dollars is going to be pretty good support with all the way along eight fifty to nine fifty would be the harvest low so maybe get into the middle of that and then we'll see once i were up to that time frame for south american i think and see how well we tuck the crop away from the market places is what the real goal of the market is so heading into this first week october we usually put it are too low we'll also get that quarterly grain stocks report coming out september thirty at what possible outcome could we have many well it should be pretty close to what they have in a carry out written down on on what's left on the stock so it should be friendly but it's too late for it to matter anymore

wont really show anything there there is enough of it around there is no tightness in corn whatsoever i think that that'll be a non event i dont think theres anything that can really move it. if it i think if it were a rally on it briefly i think it gets sold, you agree with that well i think there's a couple issues on this report number one we had a feed usage from june through august on wheat was huge we have huge crops of corn feed usage could be lower than you think in ending stocks could go up twenty five fifty nine and then if you are in the books now in august it was a poor crush again after strong crush all that could be five to ten million too high so ending stocks on beans could go up five to ten million corn ending stocks after this last year bought twenty five maybe even seventy five million so that's a big unknown i think that a risk remember two thousand ten we thought we knew what we had we ended up with four hundred million bushels more of the september report and it sank the market course and

welcome back to u s farm report andy when we look at corn and we hear year yields maybe not as as as good as some people had hoped in some areas but then we are hearing some exceptional yields in others but does that does the corn yield even matter it does e have one seventy four half its one seventy two market and will be similar to last year i would say if it was one seventy which i think is probably not very realistic at all but i'm hearing that talk that it could be one seventy there's enough good yields out there and i think people thought they would bust the bin but there's enough heat that are causing problems and there's some damage in the corn we had tip back i think were probably around one within a

same for that matter cause i know theres some two-forty corn out theres just not a lot of 260 i don't know i think it could create kind of a flat market in corn what do you think dictates this corn price moving forward well i think when you look at the corn price i think is really going to be up to the producers cause there was more old crop carry over from old new thing you might think you know when you're talking about one point seven or one point eight billion bushels some may carry over and market does the producer merchandise way out of the market or does he sell it in try to reown it's i think how much green comes to the marketplace is gonna dictate it but remember we're just the start of the harvest we haven't been challenged by these yields yet and in wheat market we did not gracefully put the crop a way we ended up with big yields a lot of storage and we're still paying for we have got off the

you think that opens up the door any or do we need a lot more demand in order to eat we need more egypts out there is what we need, the wheat thing's in trouble i mean but i was gonna say it's going back to corn a little bit that like the farmers only about ten percent for corn and so that's until the ownership changes its gonna be a long time before this thing rallys same thing that wheat there are they're not sold on we that's why many think of it's like both us to we get a lot ld the markets are in and do a lot i don't think since i can take a lot of business to get wheat going i think switching gears a little bit china announcing possibly no agreement has been signed possibly accepting u s beef for the first time since two thousand three it seems like a very bullish factor for cattle but do you think it moves prices are moving for well i think actions against people i love words and so far is just

d and i think there's some buying into it then reality hit us in cash cattle trade was a little bit poorer at the end of the week in so we saw some early selling of very poor close the end of the week and technically the markets back trying to fight for support or trying to rewind the clock so is china making the difference i don't think so there's no real proof that they're going to take any beef yet solutions we see looking china that china holistically and looking at all of the commodities do you think demand continues there were any signs maybe that demand will taper off or do you think it'll strengthen anti no i think one thing or you're gonna see us is rum will move in the la nina weather situations i think they're going over load the bean imports so if they don't use them all the roll of the next year and so i don't think there's anyway we missed bean forecast of anything they load up a little extra and in the summer next year so i think the bean deman probably exceeds

below next year and she got that covered on the cattle thing china gone australia and they want to brazil now theyer going to the u s they're looking for more places to move beef from there i think you will see beef grow but it's going be a slow pace right all right thank you both will get a closing thought when we come back with market prices constantly changing, it's important to know where current prices stand. get market prices delivered right to your mobile phone, just text markets to

welcome back to u s farm report closing thoughts don we'll start with you where you know i think when you look at this market it's harvest time and were i haven't really been challenged by harvest yet so i think you have to expect from a producer's standpoint we're probably going to come under pressure and see how much a how graceful we tucked the grain away from the

yields were probably going to be very large on soybeans look for variable yields on the corn and look for some you know higher prices down the road thing is going to be a challenge to put the crop away in find storage for it and carry corn and next summer and then generally farmers are gonna store corn. in the next summer and i sell their beans and my preference would be to try to hold more beans or take ownership back in beans and not store as much corn so once we get a decent basis towards like december i'd be one to move some corn use re-ownership strategy is what i would say all right thank you both stay with

farmers feed the world. it's a phrase we hear often, but one john wants you to rethink. that's this week's john's world. for my entire career farmers

comes from grocery stores. in a way they farmers be half-right, but not like you may think. our industry's claim that food comes farms is a bit of a stretch. with the exception of some fruits and vegetables, there is nothing grown on our farms that is consumed directly as food. nobody has a plate of soybeans or corn, or bites a hog. it's wheaties in the bowl, not wheat. this insistence of redefining food makes as much sense as saying cars come an iron mine. most of all if food really came from farms, farmers would never go to the supermarket themselves. but even that simple truism needs an update. the majority of food in the us is coming from restaurants, not grocery stores. last year for the first time on record americans spent more for food away from home than at home. the gap is widening this year, even as restaurants struggle with high labor costs. this is tracking dollars not calories,

food ingredient business, which i think better describes our sector, the customer we're trying to sell to is increasing a restaurant or the prepared food industry, such as frozen pizzas, a major target for our dairy industry. once we get it through our heads that the people who will influence our sales are less often the proverbial female grocery shoppers and more likely to be marketing directors at a restaurant or food company, the better we will be able to let go of our perennial demand for more attention and credit. those decision-makers are making far greater efforts to understand what people want to eat than we are. more importantly, they have proven to be less sensitive to our campaigns based on agrarian images or admiration of our lifestyle. food in the us comes from a vast, complicated food system of which we are small, but important part. the sooner we embrace this truth, the

customers. something to think about. thanks, john. well, ag is teaming up with nascar to bring the conversation about farming to the finish line. we'll tell you why coming up on u-s farm

we have much more ahead this weekend on u-s farm report. skepticism over the wave of ag mergers. we'll break down the heated hearing from washington this week. taking food from the farm to the finish line. let's talk food takes over nascar. and john talks about parity pricing in this week's customer support. now for the headlines, executives from top ag companies on the hot seat this week as the senate judiciary committee scrutinized the wave of ag mergers currently on the table. it was a full house as executives from bayer, monsanto, syngenta, dow and dupont defended the mergers, calling it a win for farmers. but not everyone saw it this way. iowa senator chuck grassley says he fears the mergers will further concentrate an industry that's already gone through massive

ays says ncga believe true competition isn't just based on number of plyayers, but on evenly matched companies fighting for market share. we do believe consolidation is compounded by the regulatory barriers facing agriculture. domestic regulatory hurdles and delays in international approvals represent signifiant barriers in markets that are slowing innovation and driving up costs. we'll have more coverage of the heraing in our farm journal report. the senate slamming epa over it's waters of the u-s rule. in a report rleased this week, the u-s senate committee on environment and public works says case studies show these regulatrions show the most extreme overreaches of a federal authority. one case study from 2014 showed the corps used soil surveys and google earth aerial photos to claim the landowner destroyed ephemeral, or short-lived, drainage instead of showing evidence of a bed bank and ordinary high water mark.

tribuatry, the corph and epa will find tributaries almost anywhere gravity moves water downhill. national corn growers says this report suggests epa is trying to expand its authority unlawfully and that the rule simply doesn't work. presidential nominee hilary clinton says she backs epa's waters of the u-s rule. clinton says she'll work with all parties to ensure common sense implementation. more than 6 thousand corn farmers are urging congress to pass trans pacific trade partnership this year. national corn growers president chip bowling telling cogress at a time when the farm economy is struggling, exports represent a rare bright spot for agriculture. supporters want to see the 12 national pact pushed through the lame duck session before the next president takes office. senate majority leader mitch mcconnell has said senate won't even take up the measure this year. that's it for news...meteorologist cindi clawson joins us now with a longer range look at weather. cindi, when does this moisture

are gonna see a break at least in the nation's midsection as we head through this week here's a look at the jet stream you could see this cut off low that's going to be pulling off to the east and no models yesterday weren't showing a whole lot of women it's going take a couple of days to finally kick off to the east were still gonna see some warm conditions along the east coast. we're seeing kind of a ridge building in parts of the west but that cut off low finally kicks on off to the east here's what it looks like on friday we're gonna see some fairly warm temperatures the more fall like air still remaining at mostly in canada. but we'regoing to see a troph bring in some cooler temperatures by sunday into the northwestern united states here's a look at your temperature is in the longer rains the thirty day temperatures and looks like it's going to be on the warm side in the eastern half of the country along the northern tier states and along the west coast as well the only real stronger signal for below normal temperatures is right in western texas and parts

the northeast to the great lakes along the gulf coast states as well looks like perhaps a little bit dry in parts of the art tennessee ohio valleys and into the mid atlantic time thanks cindi. during the senate judiciary hearing this week, leaders from five of the biggest seed and chemical companies in the world were on hand to answer for their plans to consolidate. in this farm journal report, clinton griffiths shows us why making the case for consolidation isn't going to be easy. s american farmers haul in record crops in battle against falling prices consolidation has stepped from the field to the boardroom five mega mergers announced this year alone farmers are taking note of the downside of it is that people don't like the lack of competition and we hope the department of justice in their analysis of the merger and that is their due diligence and analyze it properly i pose a

questions and other concerns were prominently on display in a recent judiciary committee hearing on capitol hill while each of the proposed transactions will be investigated individually the context of these deals taking place concurrently is also very important for us to consider during our discussions today. exactly the sentiment from some farm groups during the hearing but any one of these activities could certainly be well understood recognizing market forces that are underway at this point i'm i think the challenge that we face is an industry is having all of these occur at exactly the same time a remedy that would restore this loss of competition would require massive divestitures viable buyers with scale and scope would be difficult to find outside the big six however business leaders from many of the company's planning consolidation were also on hand stressing the benefits of combining research and

to expand the choices and competitive price values the farmers demand in a way that we could not do independently jointly we will be better able to develop new customized tools to address farmers' future needs also touting improved abilities to deliver new technology fifteen years ago we spent about three hundred million dollars on r and d today we spend over a billion a half dollars a year agricultural companies like ours need to invest more if we expect to deliver what farmers need and do it faster seed price increases have outpaced yield increases over time and the usda has concluded that higher levels of concentration are no longer associated with higher r and d but licensing that technology and who controls it becomes part of the discussion it essentially puts certain companies who own

gets access to them. the comment that was made earlier about making sure that there's an open process for access to those very important. the panel also raising concerns about state owned chemchina and its planned purchase of syngenta leading to the potential for preferential treatment chemchina now has a direct pipeline for hard line into a u s competitors could potentially shape or control or what syngenta does in terms of orates with rivals the types of products that innovates. not for the benefit of the american farmer or consumer but for the benefit of the chinese farmer and consumer. with this acquisition i think the good news is china is more incented to improve the regulatory process because they'll be and invested heavily in technology in agriculture which i think is a good thing for all of us while

be an easy decision for u s farm report on clinton griffiths thanks, clinton. also on the merger front, new reports this week show bayer is considering dropping the monsanto name if the merger goes through. no official decision has been made. up next, john

what would happen if we did away with open markets in agriculutlre? that's this week's customer suppoert. last week we looked at supply control to boost farm income, this week we tackle price control. the most common concept of fixing the price for ag products is parity

agriculture from 1910 to 1914 when farms prospered along with the rest of the economy. if we could simply reestablish the balance of those prices today, farmers would be receiving their fair share, at least in the views of proponents. parity prices are still calculated by law by the usda and published each month, and promptly ignored. for example, these are the parity prices for july 2016: corn $13.00; soybeans $31.10; $51.90; hogs $164; cattle $320 what would happen if prices were mandated at these levels? first, our roundtables would be very boring. second, export demand for these commodities would disappear. third, even if demand stayed the same, imagine what you would be bidding for farmland or cash rents or replacement heifers. you don't

a price jump like this would be. fourth, i suspect farm income would plummet. while you can set the price, you cannot force buyers to buy. as we talked about last week, income is price times quantity. the result would be ever- growing unsold surpluses. fifth, price controls like parity prices require a massive bureaucracy to administer, and invite widespread cheating and black markets. price controls have unintended consequences. during wwii, wage controls during the labor shortage led employers to compete for workers by paying for health insurance, since that was not considered wages. as a result, today, your health care coverage is largely a function of where you work, which economists point to as perhaps the biggest problem in health care delivery. once again we are faced with the struggle to define what is fair to deal with

transaction at a time, not by comparison to history or by absolute equality. there is a reason nobody pays attention to parity prices even though we still crank them out. they don't work, and never have. thank, john. he's hitting on some pretty controversial topics lately. if you have questions or comments, send those to john at mailbag at u-s farm report dot com. when we come back, teh coversation about food moves to

there are around 2 point 1 million farms in the u-s. and the population? it's nearly 319 million. that can explain why there's such a wide knowledge gap between the average consumer and farmers. ag groups teamed up with nascar last weekend to try to narrow that gap by bringing farming and food to the finish line at the chicagoland speedway. their mission was

difficult than driving nascar? ugh, yeah. for sure. i grew up in a farm community. going from the farm to the finish line, coming together for one grand event in an effort to connect consumers to production agriculture. when the initiative of let's talk food dot com came together, for me it was just the icing on the cake, it's an extra piece to what we've been trying to accomplish for a number of years now. so to see winfield ghether. to see the support we have from the ag community, to be able to help drivce education. it's a topic for whiich both allegier and armstrong have a passion. educate the consumer about what they're eating, how important it is and what hte farmer has to do to grow, and all the restrictions we have and everything we have to do to be able to feed the world. it's so amazing to me just hte lack of education that the public has on what hte ag industry goes

what they can provide for our consumer. let's talk food had a prominent footprint during the nascar race at chicagoland speedway. the iniative kicked off with the launch of a new website-lets talk food dot com. but on race day, from cars, to burn suits to hats, the drivers along with brandt, winfield and u-s farmers and ranchers alliance fueled conversation all while bringing attention to agriculture. we've often talked about what's good for just production and we innovation and sustainabilities, not only good for production of food and fiber, but it's an awesome story for the world and the safety of the world. for most producers, that combine is their sanucatry, that's their comfort zone, moving to talk to a local school s local govenrment body a local consumer, that's what's diccult fo thme. that's why the groups teamed up with ffa members from chicago ag sciences, a high school in chicago that focuses on teaching ag to inner city students, to discover what

does your food come from? you mean what grocery store? do you believe your food is produced safely? she says no. i say i hope. farmers are extraordinarly trusted by consumers, they don't trust the way we grow and raise food. so that's the shift we have to make. we hav eto familairize consuerms everyday with why we confine livestock, why we use gmos, why we grow organic food. really just to recconnect consuerms across the country with farming and production agriculture. i think more and more people want ot know about hteir food.. what's in it...how's it produced... where did it come from and even downto dates porduction methods, ... i think let's talk food is going to be an ongoing tool for us to know more about food. it's a difficult conversation to start, but one armstrong thinks will have a positve outcome. but as far as this weekend, just

we're doing why things are important that we grow and why we have to d oto keep feeding everybody. from the racing side of things, we always look at wins and top 5s and top 10s. but all in reality, t hat's not what makes this weekend a success. if we can educate 1 person that educates another 1 person and it spreads throughout the community, i think we've done our job.the sport and the drivers attract fans of all ages... so who is your favorite driver, justin...justin who? just alegier. who will hopefully start to cheer on farmers, as well. you can check out lets talk food by visiting their website, lets talk food dot com. when we come back, machinery pete has this week's tractor tales. missed any of todays show, head to us farm report dot com to watch the program online

tractor tales is brough to you by machinery pete, the most trusted name in farm equipment. welcome back to tractor tales folks! this week we're heading to southeastern ohio to meet a collector and learn about his 1959 john deere 530. blaine melvin is active in the pioneer antique power association and spent many hours working on this classic deere. and while this 530 looks like a show tractor, blaine assured us it still gets the job done. bought it from a private individual that i believe in two thousand seven and then i've completely went through it owned the block in a new rings new bearings new radiator had the carburator rebuilt by professional also generate a rebuilt by professional p t o was rebuilt by a friend of mine i did the

primer and paint the tires on it can come with it and there pretty good shape i probably will be brush hogging this afternoon do plow days with it do tractor rides with it and of course show it. i was wanting a five thirty we still have a six thirty that my dad bought new. this side tractors lot easier to have a ittle mini farm uses around the farm still do tractor rides its a pleasure to ride today's country church salute goes to st john's luthern church in levell, wyoming. the congregation celerbated their 100th anniversary earlier this month. they tell us the main part of hthe current church was

story. as always we want to learn about your home church as well... salutes can be sent to the address on the screen. stay with us harvest photos are next. find your next piece of farm equipment with machinery pete visit and shop on machinery pete dot com today with over 100,000 listings for sale visit and shop on machinery pete dot com today with over 100,000 listings for sale

visit and shop on machinery pete dot com today with over 100,000 listings for sale

sy harvesting near yorkville illinois this week. he says they are seeing yields in the 250 bsuhel per acre range... and moisture on the early harvested crop is 22 to 24 percent. our friend chad colby stopped and captured some drone footage of harvest this week. he says it's a mixed bag. there are yields in places that are really good, and others with average as best. he says it just depneded

harvested about 90 acres this week. it's still not dry enough to go full steam, but they tested a little. he says yields look very good in his area. but he says it looks like a wet and cool pattern could be in store all of next week. and many of you know matt bennett, he's one of our analysts. this is his son toby, very proud of this year's corn crop. as he should be... matt says the corn yields are very good this year, but not pping the record he saw in 2014 as always, we want to hear from you, send comments to mailbag-at-us- farm-report-dot-com or check us out on facebook and twitter. for john, al and mike, i'm tyne morgan. thank you for watching u-s farm report. be sure to join us right here again next week, as we work to build on our tradition. have a great weekend, everyone and a safe harvest. high strength steel for high strength durabillity. chevy silderado, the official news

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