welcome to u.s. farm report. i'm tyne morgan, and here's what we're working on for you over the next 60 minutes. usda raises the soybean yield, but all the buzz is about demand. l despite murky milk prices, one minnesota producer is focused on the future.

silverado.> now for the news that moved the markets this week, as expected, usda upping the national soybean yield in its latest report, while cutting their corn number. despite teh intitial bearish reaction, corn making new multi month highs, breaking throughthe 3.50 mark late this week. usda projecting acre. that's up from the 50 point 6 we saw in september, but it did come in just below trade estimates. just to give you some perspective of how big this soybean crop is. here's a map showing all the states with record soybean yields this year. the biggest yield in illionois at 62 bushels per acre. followed by indiana projected to hit 59. usda lowering its corn yield to 173 point 4, that's still a record, but down an entire

yields. illinois ringing it in at 202 bushels per acre. followed by iowa at 198. profarmer's chip flory says it's the supply and demand report that caught his eye this week.

rger than expected purchases out of china, the world's largest cotton buyer, raising the estimate of chinese buying by half a million bales. florida's orange crop is projected to be a whopping 70 percent lower than 20 years ago. florida ag commissioner adam putnam using the startling statistic to push for a cure for citrus greening. usda's forecasting 70 million boxes of oranges for the 2016-2017 season. that's off 14 percent from last year. cattle prices continue to slump this week. u.s. cattle futures falling to a six year low tuesday. october live cattle futures settling at 97- 50...that's the lowest closing front month price since october of 2010.

pressure comes from added supplies. u.s. beef production last week climbed above 505 million pounds, up almost 8 percent from this time in 2015, as processors harvested nearly 10 percent more cattle. meanwhile, u-s dollar index hitting 7 month highs. that's partially on increased speculation that the federal reserve will increase interest rates in it's upcoming meeting. oil hitting a one year high earlier this week on talks of russia putting caps on output. those are the headlines...meteorologist mike hoffman joins us now with weather. mike, these contstant some of our viewers. thanks tyne yeah i know but i do think most of the corn belt this week's gonna have some a dry weather a good chunk of the time not just be some scattered lighter showers it is turning dryer parts of southern mississippi valley when we go back a month and ojn the drought monitor, you can see the pocket over the southeast in the northeast those two areas still remain but over the past four weeks we've seen things expand in the parts of arkansas louisiana northeast texas to

south dakota neither than earlier in the season was still very dry for southern california so let's go day by day a powerful storm system coming in to other pacific northwest so should be the last one in the string also some decent rains out there, you can see warm and dry through most of the nation's mid sections a few showers possible in florida and along a stationary front from the northeast across the great lakes by wednesday then that storm system is moving up through eastern canada weak cool front coming southward so this will system in the eastern gulf a lot of the computer models are showing some type of feature coming into that area and what i'm going to show is we'll have to wait and see the direction this thing takes but it's showing a pretty strong storm in the southeast with widespread perhaps tropical rains for parts of the southeast, all depends on the movement and whether this tropical system even developeds, but even see the eastern portions of the country fairly wet, but from the middle of the

longer range forecast coming up there in our next half hour thanks, mike. usda's latest report showed strong export numbers. but is that forecast too agressive? that's our marketing roundtable discussion with kevin duling and mark gold after the break.

gold on the show with me this week while the inn this week we had some strong prices and a rally when we talk about corn soybeans even wheat getting some love late in the week what caused this rally late this week and i personally we've we've been beaten down so far at least corn and wheat have the technicals, you jsut, they they were starting to show signs of getting ready to turn in the hedge funds have these massive

part was the day of the report we have these big reversals lower and then thursday we came in and just erased all those just automatically and then now wee extending gains today as well so the price action certainly is saying there is value in these levels do you think it's mainly the fund's positions i think it's a good deal the funds okay funds were short hundred seven hundred eighty corn coming in they were short about 150 wheat coming in. they didn't get the following through at all on thursday, it kind of opened up steady, then we we just kind of took off again huge fund buying there was a report out that noaa has changed their opinion on la nina a month ago they said no la nina, all of a sudden they put it back in, could that be the government trying to boost prices up perhaps before the election certainly wouldn't surprise me but it's really been a fine short covering deal in

week and when a market can rally in front of this bad news and a strong dollar that's telling you that somebody wants it may be short lived but at least were getting opportunities mentioning that strong dollar but when we look at exports ok let's take a look at the export picture we saw all this supply and demand come out this week it showed some really impressive export numbers but do you think maybe usda is being too aggressive with those considering we do have the dollar in a seven month where the wheat is ok it's not in europe in the western europe at a major issue so they're kind of off the export trains there they're out on the all russia definitely there and have recollected blacks either have a record exports among the rest of the wheat, there's huge amounts in china so where's the good wheat, wher's it going to come from and you start looking at milling quality of narrows it down a lot and so to me that the limit on

the year i mean there's we're going to max out everything we've already seen rail tariffs explode and it is goign to be interesteting to see if we can ship it and even with the rally in the dollar were still in incredibly low prices over the last six or eight years so it's still very affordable for most of it so you think that these demand numbers that usda came out with this week you think it is attainable why not?if you want quality wheat, youre' going to come ot the us for it. what about beans and corn? we've got corn to get rid of them were doing a good job and we've got record exports on the books for corn an dbeans doesn't look like that's changing the dollar doesn't seem to be on stopping it all. every time we get a break in the bean market the chinese a seemingly standing there buy some more on the fund's along a little bit of beans were not nearly where they could be and if you want to cover the short corner week we got some higher prices coming before the end of the month good

yield usda came out with this week do you think it's high enough i personally don't think we're going higher. i get between thirty to foy yield reports every day right armers all over the country there aren't that many yields on getting under fifty bushels but i'm getting plenty of sixty five seventy fives, plenty of eight is and even some nineties and so i think one it's also not be in the world the higher orn yield we did decrease the corn yield by about a bushel but do you we're at probably a good area right now. we're close, i've been in the one seventy camp pretty much the whole year and i maybe we go down a little maybe we don't know me the way it's a big crop. it comes down to basically they're playing poker with the chinese again i mean do they really have after world court and if they do is it worth anything and so it comes down to

crop you know trust seasonals, trust the charts and go from there say you say no matter what if we were looking at a record corn crop right now record corn and record bean crop. i don't think there's any doubt about it beisdes masssive rains that would stop harvest, but we're really looking at big crops and i agree with kevin, it doesn't matter if it's a fourteen point nine crop or fifteen point two crop probably in the big scheme of things, it doesn't make a lot of difference so if we do have these record crops of corn and beans which looks like we are going to have do you think we have enough demand and consumption to eat through it all ultimately yeah, but i think the point is that if we get the funds to cover their short week corn and red beans of whether we get the selling opportunity here by the end of the month, i think guys are got to take advantage of because we haven't changed the fundamentals only the technical side of the market i heard rumors that we're not going to see a bottom in corn until we see a bottom in wheat,

those bottoms are in at this point when you look at the charts, kevin. the wednesday and thursday reversals technically showed me that w're done going down. we're done with these levels there's still a lot of value here. so theoretically yes i would say the bonds are in for those barring, i mean we're so cheap, we're so far below cost production at least in wheat, i mean the acreage is goign to crash and it was already down last year so going forward. i just i don't i think we we fell in that paradigm were things were just too cheap. all right

welcome back our right mark do you think that we put harvest lows in and all these crops yeah i think we've got a good chance in the corner the way the beans and not so sure because i still think there's bigger yields out there that we don't know about

a blow a lot of those longs and make new lows with no crops getting bigger and i think that's possible corn and wheat look pretty good but again i believe between and the end of the month we can see this rally pre election and then the corn i think it will take some more pressure after the election what can i go back to three fifteen it seems now for this point kevin in the pacific northwest where you're from we've heard of a lot of wheat quality issues out there so what producers do their holding onto this poor quality weed is there anything they can do at this point there's not a lot of me if that if you have a really bad stuff the insurance will kick in and help a little bit if it's in that mid range where it's not milling and it's the it's not milling quality and it's not insurance covered then i mean it's just a challenge there's really nothing there's no good answer and so guys who just said you know just going to move it fine and they were buying back that with calls so lease for owning milling wheat on the

mean you get less that three dollar wheat, you get less that three dollar wheat is when you get a bad quality crop it just there's nobody nobody makes money on the thing out so speaking of tough calls cattle a bad week again tuesday what happened what's going on with these cattle starts right now mark well you know we've had the stair step down right on both the fats and the feeders every time we made a new low with a new low bounce and again we've done this for the last eight months really on both markets which one of these lows is going to be the real low that really starts this thing to turn we don't have any indication of it yet i still think there's about ten dollars of risk in the cattle market both fats and feeders out here on at some point though we will turn this market around it'll turn technically first is everybody talking about the

cycle but markets will rally will force enough people out and you know maybe we've got to go a little bit lower first but at some point we will turn this cattle market around i just think we've got unfortunately put on a little more pain before a battery let's look at this macro picture overall when we look heading into these fed meetings you know possibilities of raising interest rates but we haven't really done much of that so far heading into the election is this economy is good is being as scrolling through the minutes from last fed meeting in a couple of the members said they said it concerned me when i read it is that you know we are afraid that if we do not raise rates that that will signal an old lack of credibility for our office for art for the fed and you know do you really want a raise rates just to maintain credibility and so you get a scratch your head

take the whole system and in turn in barrel so it's it's to me doesn't love a good mark what do you think well i think interest rates are going to move higher over time talking my position there have been short bonds were little bit here now but i think the economy still has some challenges ahead i think we're gonna find out after the election that the cost of obamacare is going to go to the roof so i think that's hurt some people out here so i think we're still in some tough times right headed into this election i mean do you think that the u s dollars going to continue to strengthen heading into the election worked out probably you know it is no reason not to in the short term long term you know if trump gets in hes mentioned that he would like a lower dollar for more exports clinton camp i assume is going to be the same right thank you

welcome back time now for closing thoughts kevin start with you when markets start

inverse moves i should say that to me says change in trend and people say how high can it go start looking abroad, start looking at the chinese situation, they could you know they've got half the world's we have the world's corn, if you take that take him out of the equation things are tighter on a world scale than people think. so don't rush in and sell three sixty corn. all right thanks kevin i would say that though we've had a nice little bit of impetus to get these funds to cover their short corn and wheat. i think it'll drag these beans higher. i think what's critical is we're still looking at big crops there's an incentive for the government to get this thing higher by the end of october, the question is is it the beginning of a bull market resist beginning of short covering i believe this is the beginning a short covering. if we get opportunities, three eighty three ninety in corn, ten ten twenty five in the bens, i think you need to take advantage

knolwedge about current market conditions form the prfojessionals at bower trading. view the markets like never

time now to head to the farm for this week's john' world. .well, it happened again last night - i had a spreadsheet cells and formulas and the numbers weren't coming out good and i could not find the error. sort of like those running to get away from a monster and not being able to get going. somebody ought to write a psychology paper about this type of nightmare - if they haven't already. several farmers have admitted to me they have had similar dreams. but the anxiety

and entries in my cash flow or breakeven worksheets in order to get some rest. psychologists do have an explanation for the emotional state that prompts these sleepless nights. it's called scarcity mode. this brain feature evolved to focus our attention on getting food when our bodies were desperately short of calories. when the brain decides we don't have enough food, or time, or now, money it reorganizes our inking processes. once we feel there is not enough, we have a hard time thinking of anything else. even when we sleep. if it happens to you, here's a couple of hints. first, you're not the only one or going crazy. second, one of the most effective cures is to get someone else you trust to verify your numbers - like your banker. in fact, avoiding your banker right now might be

but the important thing is to recognize what your brain is trying to tell you and pay attention. there are a lot better things to dream about. those are the worst dreams. thanks, john. still to come, as dairy farmers weather lower prices, it's not stopping some from focusing on the future.

rnal broadcast, this is u.s. farm report. weclome back to u-s farm report. we have much more ahead this weekend. despite the price, it's a minnesota dairy focused on people and processes. water plays a big role in arkansas. we're on the road with machinery pete to stuttgart arkansas to see how technology and equipment fit in. and john addresses wheat quality woes in customer suort. now for the headlines, it's been a week since hurricane matthew ripped through the east coast. and in just days, matthew wiped oua year's worth of work in a matter of days. here's the aftermath in north carolina. todd boyd is in pinetown. he tells u-s farm report the cotton crop is a complete loss. and 60 to 80 percent of the area's peanuts were also destroyed. this is the second year in a row

facing a glut of milk this year, forced to dump 43 million gallons so far this year, the hightest amount in 16 years. usda is trying to help ease the pressure, announcing a second 20 million dollar cheese purchase. this comes two months after the department's big buy in august. the 40 million dollars worth of cheese this year falls short of a request by the national milk producers federation earlier this year for usda to purchase switching hats this week, as he was featured on agritalk representing the clinton campaign. host mike adams pressed the secretary on issues such as immigration, the estate tax, trade and wotus. vilsack says he doesn't agree with clinton's stance on trade, but that a clinton presidency would clarify wotus, saying a lack of communication is why there's so much confusion about the rule today

regualtions in a way where people would have better understanding and better clarity of what's in and what's not in> host mike adams did ask the secretary if he would be part of clinton's admistration or remain ag secretary. vilsack didn't answer directly, instead saying his focus is to get clinton elected right now, but he does think maybe a change at the helm of usda would be good. that's it for news...meteorologist mike hoffman has a longer range look at weather this week. mike. after what for a potential tropical system in parts of the southeast but that's down the road to start this week you can see a big ridge for the middle of the country still that lingering trough in the northeast but a big trough out west has been bringing in storm after storm to the pacific northwest and that's going to continue to do that until the middle of the week then we don't see any more coming this way because we'll start to see a big ridge building along the west coast trough digs into the

north in canada far as moisture is concern here is where a tropical system could get involved late in the week in and if they get so caught up with this trough it may spread some pretty good rains up the eastern seaboard but that's a pretty good shot of cold air behind it as well as we had in the next weekend here is my third it out look for chapters above normal for much of the eastern portion of the country below normal out west precipitation above normal in kind of the northern tier states and from the aau river to the gulf coast as well as the mike. the dairy industry has faced plenty of headwinds this year but for some producers the downturn hasn't tempered expectations for the future. such is the case for riverview dairy, headquartered in morris minnesota. this unique operation focuses on people and processes as the main drivers of efficiency...in our farm journal milk magazine cover story. tucked neatly into the minnesota

ns. riverview dairy with it's 850 full time employees and 65-thousand lactating cows...is built for scale. so we're currently operating in five states we have twenty sites ten of which are dairy production sites the rest are beef facilities and heifer replacements for the for the dairies but this growth oriented business didn't start at the top. in the early nineties we had a we had a lot of guys that had a desire to come back. so in nineteen ninety five the dairy across the road was built for i believe eight hundred fifty cows originally and then expanded to twenty five hundred and has been growing ever since at that time in there i think the average dairy size in minnesota was fifty cows the average dairyman was like sixty years old.... we grew as opportunity presented itself in as as we had the people and people continue to help make riverview successful. from it's shockingly young

on t team in our average age is thirty three point seven years which is really indicative of our whole company our average age in the company's thirty three point four to it's employee ownership program. seventy percent of the company is owned by employees and the other thirty percent it is those neighbors around sites. when we do new sites a lot of times there will be one or two neighbors that are close to the sites that are affected by the sites that will have an opportunity to invest in the dairy. both helping to create a tom. and so when we talk about the culture where we talk about people who are passionate about agriculture passionate about life in general passionate about what they're doing and a desire to help other people become better personally and professionally. many employees here are professionals... you know like my job for example i'm working on becoming an expert on permitting environmental compliance. that's a pretty particular narrow roll for one dairy farm operation. we have

mexico it's on the tn visa agreement through nafta and they come here on a one year visa which is renewable and several of them choose to renew college educated veterinians from mexico recruited to come work and live at the dairy. they really care about the animals they're cattle people that's why to a veterinarian practice so they already love the animal and want to do what's best for it. a passion that pours across the entire workforce.. riverview has a full time professor..teaching language classes... i think that's where it started i think that why riverview brought me on. i think they brought me on to create communication between the two groups. i've been here for the last 8 year. i live here with my family. my wife and two kids. now a supervisor, employees like ramon have

the calf sites in minnesota for riverview.... we need to have the right people here and the right people means to be patient. be patient and have love for the animals. a love he and others are sharing through community outreach... it's very hard to tell your story sometimes becasue we're busy farming. but we need to do a better job of that so being in schools being one on one with those clasms having students as much as we can out in the barns with the animals it's a system that seems to be working. from growing feed, to building their own facilities, recruiting and training it's workforce, and raising the next generation of cows---riverview is building a path toward the future. when we have several hundred people all helping each other working together on encouraging-- as the bible would say iron sharpens iron -- and i really that's what

her. thanks, clinton. while riverview doesn't have specific plans for growth, it continues to add new sites. that's one reason it has it's own full time construction company-- dedicated to building and maintaining riverview

welcome back. it's time to head back to john's farm for this week's customer support. john. we head out to the northwest to investigate the falling number wheat quality problem. from bob shrope in pullman, washington: "we our having a hard time with the wheat grades on the palouse this year. the test is very erratic as the same field of wheat can go from one extreme to the other. some of the grades are coming back below two hundred. varieties don't have much effect on the change in

need to be attentive to the needs of our customers but this may have a huge impact on the profit margin for our area farmers." bob, i have read about this wheat quality problem, but have zero expertise - only what i have been able to learn recently. the falling number test, as you can see is unique, but essentially measures the sprouting damage caused by rain at harvest. there is also a second cause, lma (late maturity alpha amylase activity) brought on by temperature shocks during grain fill - rapid changes from warm to cool or the reverse. falling numbers below 300 in soft white and hard red winter wheat are discounted sharply and usually end up as feed. many producers this year such as bob did not expect low test numbers

have been little sprouting. what interested me was the similarity we are seeing with corn test weights on our farm - uncommon temperatures during grain fill has our test weights (or density) numbers almost are% lower than average, with commensurate yield hit. both of these problems seem to me to be possibly linked with exceptional temperatures - in our case high nighttime temperatures. and there is one other familiar issue: when crops are huge, quality problems are a bigger headache simply because buyers can be choosier. finally, add this to the list of reasons why funding ag research is so important to our future. thanks, john. if you have questions or comments, you can email john. it's mailbag at u-s farm report dot com. up next, water is a vital resource to arknasas farmers. we'll show you how equpment is helping management

on the road with machienry pete on the road with machienry pete

on the road with machienry pete on the road with machienry pete

brought to you by john deere. nothing runs like a deeere. we're continuing our on the road with machinery pete series. and this month, it's a trip to arkansas to greenway equipment. area farmers are battling increased regulations and lower prices. but as you'll see, their focus is always on water and protecting their bottomline through better tools and equipment. if there's two things this town knows, it's how to produce rice and hunt birds. < every farmer om the area farms some acreage of rice > as harvest rolls on, these farmers are mudding the crop out, and yields aren't shattering any records. < there's a lot of blanks on the head> not a really high yield or a low yield, just kind of in the middle htis year. > while water is a battle this fall, during the growing season, it's a vital

irrigation> water is a big issue becasue we can't grow rice iwthout water.> that's why water management is a huge part of what these farmers do. greenway equipment doesn't just sell farm uipment.

e day, improve our customers bottomline, increase their effeciency and productivity> it's also technology like drones helping make water conservation a little easier. but with so much focus on water, terry dabbs says it's also creating a headache dealing with regulations. from water to pesticides, today's technology is helping with ease of management.

nothing new, but it's been a big boost. across the country, upgrades in equipment are tapering off. machienry pete mer to early october has been a great time to buy over yeras, prices tend to be a little weaker, becasue we're just waitint to see how the harvest comes out how yields are> in this area, more equipment has flooded the market, some not by choice.

direct payments. and on top of that, a new farm bill changed the entire payment structure for farmers. that unknown also impacting equipment buys in the area. with the 2016 crop in the rearview mirror, , he's says rice is what he knows, and what' he'll continue to grow. and that's why with the hope of better rice prices, both stuttgart's history and future is riding on rice. next month, we're heading to boone, iowa with machinery pete. when we come back, machinery pete rejoins us for tractor tales.

elp you find and value your next piece of

welcome back to tractor tales folks were heading to illinois this week for a fully restored john deere 8630. owner kent williams turned this tractor upside down to bring it back to its original look. this was an early production, low serial number tractor that looks like it just rolled off the assembly line. i bought it at an auction at the time i thought it was a weak moment i bid against the scrap man didn't buy it it was probably going to savage it was in very rough conditions it would run but it would not pull itself it had drive train problems that i took it home and started to tear it apart started work on it i had to make the decision whether to junk it or to fix it and i couldn't junket

cond year i was a cosmetic restoration it was completely disassembled down to the bare drive train after the mechanicals were addressed in repaired we sand blasted the bare bones did a resembly the new tires on a changed wheel configuration around it originally was sold on eighteen for thirty four tires on then later years somebody that stepped up rims on it and i just didn't like the appearance of it so we stripped all wheels off changed the wheel sides and put twenty point eight thirty eight on it fifty hours a week full time job and trying to farm and my so called spare time and trying to work a tractor restoration of this magnitude it was difficult after it was done we did use it with what about a thousand hours on the field work since it was restored but i think it's about time retired you dont just load it up on your pick up truck take it to a show

to move it so i probably will take it to show at some point today's country church salute goes to a catholic church in elizabeth, indiana... st peters. the church was founded by german catholics in the area, with the first mass in 18-33. the congregation has been in a few church buildings over the years, as previous ones have burned down. but today, they are the only church in southern harrison county. our thanks to greg dennis for sharing their story. stay with us - from the farm os are next. photos are next.

welcome back. well, mike, we like to have fun on twitter. and there's been a hastag floating around since 2013. it's cabcorn. and here are a few cab corn shots from this week. tony had some cab corn in iowa city this week. dave snapped a picture of his grandpa driving, saying at

g a camerea in the grain tank really helps reduce or even eliminate all that cab corn. and brent wanted to know where hte grain cart driver was... he had some overflow creating cabcorn on the roof. and jason scott, who sort of started this cab corn hashtag, took this picture, saying it's the ever so rare picture of mixed cab corn and cab soybeans. plus a lot of dirt and dust. by the way farm journal they did it with our poll and asked who deserves the blame for all this cab corn, sixty two percent said the combine driver i know that's that's a tough callif you have any pictures or video's you can share those with us by email facebook or twitter for all of us that u s farm report thank you so much for watching be sure

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