tv U.S. Farm Report ABC November 13, 2016 3:30am-4:29am CST
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the studios of farm journal broadcast, this is u.s. farm report.> welcome to u.s. farm report. i'm tyne morgan, and here's what we're working on for you over the next 60 minutes. what does a trump presidency mean for ag? we'll look at his first 100 days. usda hit the market with a shocker in corn this week... why did prices plunge and then bounce back? we'll have the answer. milk producers haven't had it easy this year... < i think we're going to close 2016 muh better> we'll tell you why things are looking up. we honor veteran's day with a story of a marine who was held hostage for more than 400 days. andrew mccrea has his story of both bravery and perserverance in american countryside. and in john's world...
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report - brought to you by the dependable, long lasting, chevy silverado. now for the news that moved the markets this week..., a fresh wasde report hitting the market hard and driving moves in the major grains...as usda threw the market a curve ball by raising the corn yield after lowering it last month. usda now says the corn yield is 175 point 3 bushels per acre, nearly a 2 bushel jump from october. production - 15-point-two billion bushels. that's one percent higher from last month. usda also pushing the soybean crop higher. yield estimate is now 52-and a half bushels to the acre, up more than a bushel. production now comes in at four-point-three billion bushels. two percent higher. here's profarmer's brian grete.
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s now back on the supply side of things> the all cotton production forecast is 16-point- two million bales, that's one percent higher from october and 25-percent ahead of last year. bale weight comes in at eight-hundred-three pounds. the stock market caught off guard after the election results tuesday night. as president elect donald trump clinched the victory, the stock market plunged, but the negative action was short lived. wednesday the dow jones closed up 256 points. clsoing high. and the s&p finshed 1 point 1 percent higher. the dow hit a fresh all-time record on thursday morning as investors repositioned after the trump win. in other export news - september was another good month for shipments of u-s beef and pork. the u-s meat export federation says overall beef exports by volume are 27-percent higher than a year ago. the push
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japan increased 49- percent from a year ago. south korea is up 75- percent. as far as pork exports...they're up seven percent in volume from a year ago. pork shipments to mexico are up 14-percent from a year ago. a weak u-s dollar is helping to bolster exports of fruits and vegetables from dock-workers busy at the port of oakland. the packer says export volume at the port hit a three-year high in october. agricultural commodities account for 40-percent of the port's total volume. that's two percent higher than last year. those are the headlines...meteorologist mike hoffman joins us now with weather. mike, our friends in the southeast are getting really desperate for some rain. i know tyne, unfortunately there isn't a lot coming in the next week let's hope on down the road we will overturn what you're talking about is the drought
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alabama and georgia even mississippi starting to get into the act now if we go back a month you can see it wasn't quite as widespread but over the past month we've seen that slowly expand the northeast continues to be dry there has been some improvement there over the last month and you can see some areas again you'll be dryer in the high plains as well obviously continues to be very dry in much of central and southern california so let's go day by day this week on monday st that'll be some showers some mountain snow showers and you can see a weak cool front coming through the great lights with almost no moisture along a little bit of rain and snow in eastern canada with that when a stationary front the southeast causing some areas of rain but once again our overall drive dry pattern continues into the early part of this week wednesday that system out west comes into the midwest just a few scattered showers there maybe a few scattered showers along the east
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going to cause a lot away in northern california much of western washington and oregon and that's into the middle of the country by friday with mild air surging northward ahead of it showers and thunderstorms along a cold front but big time rains and snows the northwest of the system. that's going to put down a lot of moisture through the northern tier of states. we'll be back in our next half hour the longer range forecast thanks, mike, it was a crazy week in the markets. we'll break it all down with jarod creed and ted seifried after the break. tional forecast is sponsored by yamaha full line of real world tough atv's and side by side vehciles. more than just the election is on john's mind this week. he joins us now from the farm. u.s. farm report is brought to you by mycogen seeds. visit mycogen-dot-com or your local mycogen seeds dealer
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yield in november by this much after lowering it in october? well i think what you do gotta look at is, as we move through october into november obviously we get more actual data so i don't know if you can necessarily argue the point that they raised the yield. i would actually think that at about thirty maybe forty five days ago probably see the move past the yield argument. but if anything this number of increase in yield this time around, more less just confirms that there is a good crop out the field. and now we have a pretty dang good chance of having a record yield. you know you date back to two thousand fourteen we did see a slight reduction by about two a bushel an acre going from the november to final yield and that would maybe be the last surprise that we could find in this market on a corn yield drop. but once again i think yield is front center anymore both corn and soybeans when we saw an increase in that with this latest usda report. so does this
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now? i don't you see much change in december. its very rare the usda does much in december because it's sorta that between time where they're still collecting data, but you know things can slow down and then we really will have that data compiled by the time we get to january and then more so even in february. i think it's setting us up for a potential for a slightly higher soybean yield. i think the band aid was ripped off on this november report. i don't think we'll be sharply higher but it could be even just slightly higher maybe slightly lower but you know very slight change there on the soybean yield but i think it's pretty close. for corn, yes i have bushel an acre. and i see that very much so. they also raised ohio by four and i would go on the other way on that. i think what jarod is saying is this kind of confirms that we have a good corn yield, very good corn crop we should probably move past the yield talk at this point, but if anything i feel
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more do more to get into january of next year to make a big enough impact on the national yield, i think you're going have to see minnesota one ninety change. you'll have to see the one ninety nine of iowa change. and certainly 202 in illinois. if we don't see the changes in those three states corn ain't gonna move much. we could argue this yield until we're blue in the face. right and you said i passed this year i'm ready to get over this yield argument but but let's look at the demand side that all right let's look at the demand side what changes did they make on the demand side of the ledger in this latest or corn. well for corn, we didn't see a heck of a lot of demand change certainly nothing to get overly concerned about. but what you are seeing in almost all commodities, both in u s and in the world, as we increase our supply, were also increasing our stocks. all that basically means is that the additional supply is not being offset by additional demand and that is a story line it's going have to be closely watched for
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miles on with you on the pro farmer crop tour we talked about usda gave a gift right off the bat with record usage numbers. the only peace is not really a record to be the corn export number . so maybe that has room to have some wiggle room, but at this point, we just gotta get out there and meet the demand that usda has already forecasted. if we don't, we're really talking a little bit different about prices moving forward. soybean demand had a mean it has been so impressive there, has that story changed any form like a month ago? we lowered the crush a little bit which i think was necessary. but the export number will see. shipments have been really hot on heavy lately. in last three weeks we've shipped over three million bushels of soybeans. there was some compelling argument for the soybean to get more aggressive on soybean demand. however they took the approach of waiting and wanting to see how this plays out. they know that is front loaded right now possibly even because the election, but just because this is that time of year is well. so we'll see. we've underestimated soybean demand basically four years in a row. the usda is taking a very aggressive approach with soybean yields
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soybean demand i don't think that they necessarily been too aggressive until we fast forward about forty five days, understand what the crop situation is in south america. i'd certainly say that there's more of a chance with a trend crop in south america that exports could be seen to be too high at this moment. but with any five or ten million metric ton problem in south america such as we see last year, it's pretty easy to say we can have more soybean exports. so all eyes on the south american production right now. the only other piece to that is you look out and amongst of forward curved months from january to april may, south america is
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a significant move in the dollar in real. basically brought a huge price rally to the south american farmer near record prices if not record prices. and with those record prices the farmer becomes engaged ,sells grain, put pressure on the interior market which long term, could just make them a further discount to u s soybeans. but do you think south america at this point, have those farmers sold enough? i mean are we gonna see more of that product flood and be more of a competition for us back a little bit to kind of wait and see what happens with their currency. because the way it's been coming down, you know they're just like u s producers. prices going they tend to want to wait and sell higher they don't want to miss that opportunity. i just think that south america, their may be a little bit nervous about this growing season as well. so they've been reserved about making sales. that could end up being in being a very bad thing later on, but if they have a weather issue we can chew through our next expert quickly
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welcome back to u s farm report. we had been talking that we cannot have a hiccup anywhere around the globe. you know south america, any production hiccup, or else we are going to see our prices shoot higher looking at the ending stock situation. after this last usda report is that still the case jarod? i think so. if you look at the real numbers, year on year, usda telling us that we could expect roughly twenty nine to thirty million metric more ton on more out of south america. roughly six or seven million metric tons soybeans south america year on year differences. obviously those numbers were down last year due to production issues. given the idea, your question can we see significant price reaction should we have any problem down there? and i think that could certainly happen. i'm
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the market today. a lot of folks got hung out to dry last year by unexpected weather issues in south america. and it looks like maybe put a weather premium in this market already going into prime growing season. so considering that how much more downside risk do we have in this corn be do you think ted? at the moment i don't think a whole lot. i think between now and the year were not gonna see a whole lot of producer sales. so with bins being locked up tight, we can kind of drift higher. we do because with brazil expected to produce a hundred and two million metric tons and without having a whole lot more acres in what they had last year in soybeans if they're all off which i think it's a very lofty expectation, if they're off by any means, we can chew through that four hundred eighty million bushel very quickly. so until we know what that looks like, in say in december january february, i think prices will hold in fairly well. but if things look good at that point
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that trump what was taking a lead in that he could actually win this thing, we we saw the stock market plunge. right but then we made some recoveries and things have been better so really what's going on with the stock market right now a lot of uncertainty. you know we're talking about that before the show. i personally don't like the phrase of people don't like uncertainty within the market. there was a significant movement in prices but volume in those overnight markets especially on election night was relatively, was not anything near as big of a deal as it would have been had it been during intraday trading sessions. given all that i think obviously there is uncertainty out there. we don't know what trumps policies are going to do we don't know if he's gonna raise taxes. we don't know if he's in in increased spending. what's he gonna put in place on all these pieces? the market wants to think that were going to in a sense strengthen the u s dollar and obviously that has
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writes he would have to think that some of these monetary policies would be it would be a friendlier what we would know how do wrap our heads around this? moving forward, ted? i think that part of the reason we were down in the night of the elections because the market was wrong. we had factored in the idea that hillary was going win. and one that looked very apparent that that was not to be the case you saw that reaction. that was replaced the next morning with i'd say cautious optimism because of what you mention i think going forward, you know there's a good chance that we continue go higher. the only monkey wrench is that we are planning to raise rates. and i think were we are going to get aggressive with that. about thirty seconds left how much more downside risk to have this cattle market? you know i think we'll go back down to test lows again. the fundamentals for me haven't changed enough to say that we need straight higher from here. it's a nice bounce off the lows. we bounced off that technical downtrend line line every time we got into and i think that's what we've been
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time now for closing thoughts and jarod creed well start with you sure obviously, wild ride over last couple days. it's obviously been a boring ride leading up to these last couple days just when we think there's no news we get a whole bunch news dumped on our plate. i've always been a believer that volatility creates opportunity right now is when you're having that conversation or roundtable with the banker any input provider in your family. you need to be making those decisions for 2017. there's certainly a lot of risk out there in today's market given any weather avoidance of any weather issues in south america, we got a look at '17 numbers right now alright, thanks, jared. ted. well, first and foremost on this veterans day we have to stop and think about those who serve our country and those who are serving our
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for us and we just had elections which in large part is due for their service in so again thank you for that and moving forward now that the elections are past us, we don't know what trade policies are to be going forward. but what we do know is there's gonna be a significant risk with the south american growing season so between now and the end december i think prices are going to hang in there fairly well. keep an eye on south american weather. i think we should be making sales between now and the end of december but then if there is a south american weather issue, b quick to reown those bushels if you see that need. our thank you both for being here we
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dnesday morning for obvious reasons. as surprised and dismayed as i am about the outcome, like engineers tend to do, i had at least given a little thought to what would be the impact on my farm should mr. trump win. it's not much consolation, but it keeps me from a lot of useless circular thinking. is it ironic that we had just completed delicate negotiations with landowners for rents for next year and beyond. t remember a more intense and anxiety-laden exercise in my career. as cash rents become more transparent and operators from far away increase the competition, this process was even more harrowing that my fretting about the voting. and it does bring up one salient point about what is really mission critical for our farm. while the elections will
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anged since yesterday: we have to compete somehow with formidable competition to stay in business. since government policy affects all of us pretty much the same, nothing that happens in the white house or congress will determine the course of our future as much as that constant local struggle. looking to washington for economic security has always been a questionable strategy, but i can see growing pressure for farm program changes when the new administration takes office. i frankly have no idea how such pleas will be received, but getting distracted by that undoubtedly rowdy debate may use up more brain time than it deserves. nothing away from our farm will be more important than finding a way to keep up with competitors who seem to be playing above the rim compared
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farm report. we have much more ahead. the rural vote was heard this week. so what does a trump presidency mean for ag? the dairy industry could be changing directions. that's our farm journal report. john has an agsplainer on inflation. and he survived more than 400 days as a hostage in iran. andrew mccrea has his story of courage as we honor all the veterans and active military out there. now for the headlines, the nation elected donald trump as the next president of the united states this week, and it's the rural vote is what helped him clinch the victory tuesday night, taking analyts and those coverign the election by surprise. it was issues like jobs, health care and big government that helped switch states like michigan and pennsylvania from blue to red.
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herbicide iwth vaporgrip technology. the roundup ready xtend soybeans had already received epa's stamp of approval, but growers weren't allowed to use dicamba in season this past year. monsanto expects the seed technology will reach 15 million soybean acreas and 3 million cotton acres on it's seed brands alone. but the technology is also licensed to more than 100 additional brands. the federal reserve banks in chicago, kansas city and st louis all released the results expected yields are helping farmers pay bills, but producers don't have a lot of disposable income to increase buying. the kansas city district - which covers the great plains. shows teh value of all land fell more than 6 percent in the third quarter. that's the largest year of year drop since the mid 1980s. cash rents fell 10 percent. farmland values not falling as hard in the midsouth. were not hit as hard.. the st
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during the third quarter of 2016, compared with a year ago. and ranchland actually grew in value by about one percent. cash rents dipping six percent. and in the chicago district, values fell 3 percent. this marks the fourth straight quarter of declining land prices, which hasn't happened since the mid 1980s. if you've been enjoying the abnormally warm weather this fall, you're not alone. the national oceanic and atmosphereic adminsitration says october marks the third warmest october ever, and the warmest since 1963. the average temp came in at 57 point 7 degrees fahrenheit. that's 3 point 6 degrees above average. when you look at the warm october, we're on track to hit the second warmest year on record. drought is tightening its grip on the mid south and southeastern portions of the country. 100 percent of alabma is suffering from drought. today marks the 53rd consecutive day without measurable rain in birmingham, alabama. more than half of the
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news...meteorologist mike hoffman joins us now with the national forecast. mike, it has been a mild fall. does that end anytime soon? thanks tyne. not for good i do see some shots of colder air coming but the overall pattern still isn't going completely to a winter pattern quite yet you can see the jet stream now we do have a a system moving through the eastern part of the country so a trough bring some chilier air behind a bye wednesday that dips into the southeast but this is more warm air from most of the plains there's a big system coming in out west and that's to bowling ball eastward by friday that's the big storm system had been talking about there and that will i continue to move eastward and dive into the eastern part of the country with a shot of cold air but the arctic air still bottled up in canada so we're not talking anything real cold but i am going below normal over the next thirty days for most of the great lakes and an above normal
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days below normal in the southeast and southwest above normal west texas above normal in the northeast and the far northwest tyne thanks, mike. like all of ag, the dairy industry has faced challenges this year, but mainly price. despite weaker commodity values, milk production has grown, proving resilence reigns in that sector of ag. but how does the picture look longer term? that's what i found out during farm journal's milk business conference this week rnal report. 2016 has been full of peaks and valleys for dairy producers across the country. and entering into the final days of the year, prices are starting to look up. "what's been a tough 2016 as we got into mid summer i think we're going to close 2016 muh better if we keep prices where they are today 20:54:36 "we're seeinga shift in terms of tightness in the market around the world and as a result we've
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months" that strength being driven by improving cheese prices, helping carry milk, too. but brown says when you look at the massive supplies of both cheese and butter, there's more downside risk than upside potential over the next few months rabobank's tom bailey agrees, but says we are starting to see a shift. "the u.s. has kind of marched to the beat of its own drum the past 24 months. the international market has done its own thing. but we've fially seen the interinational buggest exporters across the country: that's the u.s. australia, eu, new zeland, uraguay, of those 7, 6 are now contracting in terms of milk volume. so that's a big shift from where we were 6 to 12 months ago." he says the u-s will be the only major dairy producing country to expand production over the next 12 months. "and actually we've seen
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international supply picture does look friendlier, it's the dynamics among production that worries him long-term. if you look at the supply side of the industry, we're very slow to respond to negative returns. and so that means we have to wait for demand to catch up. and go through a longer period of negative times for producers yet when we have goods times int eh dairy industry, we grow right away. we grow pretty rapidly and we grow out of those ver good times. " here's also a shift in this country due to factors like regulatory issues and trouble finding water. that's why some predict california could be dethroned as the number one milk producing state. "if you take the last 6 months alone and you project it out over the next few years, it's going to take about 3 years of california contracting at about 2 percent and wisonsin growing at 4 to 5 percent for wisconsin to be the number one player. so it's still a ways out. bailey says while
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will slow. no matter where the milk is produced, analysts think solid demand will surface over the next five years, making the price story a friendly one for dairy. we can't realy rantionalize where the supply is going to come from that the world is going to need over the next 10 yrs,> he thinks the u-s market is one of the few that has the infranstruture, land and feed to meet growing international and domestic demand. that growing hunger for dairy is something the indsutry is watching, especially the change in consumers' tastes. "purchase decisions historically were driven by price, convenience and taste. that is not longer the case, consumres have questions ab0ut where the products come from, the producers who bring them to market. the practices of those producers. "get to know your customers, get to know ocnsumers and understand what they value and connect to that"> he thinks the industry is just scratching the surface, as this market potential will grow. and that's
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if the election wasn't heavy enough news, john's agsplainer this week is pretty intense, as well. john. i have threatened over the last few years to do an agsplainer about inflation. our inflation rate has been so low, it has been easy to postpone this lesson. but with the economy slowly gaining steam, inflation could be back in the news soon. so this week we are going to start by tackling the basics - what inflation is and
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policy. what we commonly just call inflation is defined as a sustained increase in the general level of prices for goods and services over a period of time. it also can be defined as a decline in the value of money - both definitions are two sides of the same coin. we measure inflation in our economy with two primary tools: the consumer price index (cpi) and the personal consumption expenditures (pce). both of these numbers are generated by gathering detailed price data monthly, allocating them into a basket weighted according to american household budgets, and adjusting them to account for technological advances and other changes in the items measured. here is how each indicator weights different expenses. one big difference between the two is the pce takes into account goods and services bought by businesses and government of
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the best example of these is health care provided by employers. as a result, the same items in the two indexes will have different weights. note, there are considerable differences in weighting for shelter and healthcare, for instance, but very little for food. the cpi is the most popular and widely watched inflation indicator. but the pce is important because it is the preferred measure for the federal reserve. they are both published monthly and often see, they track each other closely, but note the pce is generally lower. the headline number will look like this "inflation for september was 0.3 percent." while this quick read on prices tells something about what happened that month, the second number is perhaps more important. that number compares prices to the preceding year. it
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nthly rate by twelve to approximate the annual rate. because inflation is highly variable from month to month - what economists call noisy - that would be like saying corn had gone up 10 cents in july so should be $1.20 higher next july. well, i told you this would be exciting so don't miss our next thrilling episode: why should i care about inflation indicators? thanks, john. and remember, if you want to watch this again, we'll post john's om. when we come back, andrew mccrea has a story of bravery and perserverance. protests made headliens after the election, just amplifying
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only fitting andrew mccrea joins us with a story of both bravery and courage, introducing us to a marin who says america's ideals are the rock that got him through being held hostage in iran. rocky sickmann grew up in a rural area near union, mo just west of st. louis. he signed up to be a marine without his parents knowledge. he wanted to see the world and become a marine security guard. at 22 years of age, his first assignment in october of 1979 was at the embassy in iran. (the shah had been allowed into the u.s. for medical treatment two weeks prior and there were demonstrations every day rocky sickmann, former marine security guard and iran hostage each day it seemed more people were coming to the embassy to protest the united state's roll in iran. on the morning of november 4th, 1979, rocky had just gotten off duty and was walking to the motor pool gate. (over top of my head was a camera to the front
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it had been for the last two weeks chanting, although when i turned they all started coming over the wall rocky ran for the front door of the embassy where he saw one of the other marine security guards preparing to lock the doors to protect the people, property and documents inside. (he was closing the door and saw me being chased, kept it open long enough for me to get in, closed it and put a big bar down to where nobody could get in nobody could get out. and so that's where we sat for the next three hours waiting for the host government : the iranian army had provided security outside the walls in prior days on november 4th, they simply melted into the crowd allowing the surge of people to scale the walls. rocky and some others eventually barricaded themselves at the top of the building, but when other u.s. personnel had been captured and their lives threatened, rocky and the other guards were given the command to open the door. (eventually we were told to give ourself up
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allowed to speak, tied, that thought of that morning how you had your finger on the trigger of a sawed off shotgun you just wished you had pulled that trigger:20) 17:23 looking back to 1979, rocky says his instincts as a marine made him want to fire his weapon, yet he obeyed his orders. if he had pulled that trigger, world history might be far different today. (you're sitting there as a 22 year old marine, you could have started a major freaking killed us all, we would have started the war on terrorism hostages were held in iran for 444 days. on april 24, 1980, the u.s. initiated operation eagle claw, a helicopter mission to rescue the hostages. the maneuver failed in the iranian desert and eight servicemen where killed. when rocky learned of the operation after his release he vowed to help families who lost servicemen and women. he today works with the
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baseball game, a carnival, a fair, there is someone around the world pointing a weapon at an enemy making sure we live the ideals of theamerican flag are just some of the reasons rockey sickmann became a marine in the first place. it's those same ideals memories of family,faith in god. that kept hinging for those 444 days in captivity and yet today it's those same ideals that he shares with honor program. traveling the country side in st. louis missouri i'm andrew mccrea. wow. what a story. andrew, thank you for that. if you want to hear more of rocky's courageous story, we actually posted his entire unedited interview online. just go to the farm journal tv app and click on american countryside. when we
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all prized cuts, all well-marbled for richness and flavor. this is where those three wonderful cuts of beef come together. you can just tell that blend is working in there. and we sear them, and that seals in the juices of the burger. it doesn't get any better than that. and that's the culver's butterburger. welcome to delicious!
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folks were heading to illinois this week for a classic 706 international. this tractor has worked on the family farm for years. owner mike meal has enjoyed having this one in his collection and says he plans to keep it working for years to come. nineteen sixty seven 706 international tractor with a german diesel engine and an m and w turbo charger added to it new and now he used it on a mounted of corn picker was the reason he had purchased ever since then changed the front end and put a wide front and on it but to we were still using my dad was around we overhauled it or had it overhauled in the sense that i painted it and made it look real nice but then we used it enough now it needs to be fixed up again but they
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to it. its pretty handy to get around with. we still mow with it and plow plant some male rows with our seed corn with it. probably always keep just as a might end up being a parade tractor someday. tractors keep getting bigger and you keep getting better things but it's still kind of fun tool around in my sun i'm sure he's kind of pack rat like me he probably keep it forever but that's the way it goes today's country church salute goes to catholic church of immaculate conception in danville, kansas. the church was built in 1883 from materials imported from france. today's structure features the original wood work and stained glass windows. and at 133 years old, the congregation remains strong today. thanks for sending that
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slow. and it's causing corn to pop up in the field. at first glance it even looks liek a cover crop. john herath captured these pictures on his drive to kansas city this week. it's not only teh warmth, but the right amount of rain and remaining sil nutrients helping these corn seed that fell out during harvest to sprout and thrive. doug shoup is seeing the same thing in kansas. but in his area, the volunteer corn is tastling and even producing ears! for john, al and mike, i'm tyne morgan. thank you for watching u-s farm report. be sure to join us right here again next week, as we work to build on our tradition. have a great weekend, everyone.
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