>> i am running for president so if u get a chance to caucus, remember the name mitt romney. >> this week on "inside shington," the republican showdown in iowa, wre numbers indicatete -- polls indicate better numbers for romney, paul, santorum. >> howong do we have to stay in korea? we have been there since i was in high school. ron > >> paul gets help from an unlikely b battlefield conveion, michele bachmann's iowa campaign chair. >> ron paul isis in ththe top tier. >> the new york times, bringing the season of primaries -- the

new year comes, bringing a season of primaries. captioned by the national captioning institute --www.ncicap.org-- thanks for joiningng us. i'm mark shields. gordon peterson will be back next week. things have changed since we were last together. newt gingrich's slide in the polls was not by his campaign's failure to qualify for the virginia republican primary. >> it was just a mistake. i hired somebody who turned in 11,100 and -- [unintelligible] >> he compared that to pearl

harbor? i think itit is re like lucille ball at the chocolate factory. [laughter] you got to get it organized. >> gingrich posture problems provided an opening for the campaigns, specifically ron paul and romney, who are fighting for the iowa lead, followed closely by rick santorum, who jumped into double digits. jeanne cummings, what won't, self-inflicted or otherwise, mo led to gingrich's fall from grace? >> there is much chinenese backckground that was ing to come up --. his work up -- there was much in his background that was going to come up. his work with nanancy pelosi in that ad, his work witith freddie mac, an organization tt conservatives hate because of their role in the collapse of the housing market, and millionss in taxpayer money as it had to go to bail it out. but what really hurt him the st was when conservative

opininion leaders, like charles here at the table, clan back -- glenn beck, formerly of fox, and others, one of those people started to come out and say whoa, ththis is a someat we cannot support. this is people that i what primary voters really -- list really.. tha -that iowa primary voters really listen to. that gave credence to the avalanche of attack ads against him. it is light at 2.5 million at versus his 2,000 in positive ads. he has been pummeled with ads that tell people about the baggage he carries. >> charles, have you been complicit in his downfall? >> i would like to believe everything jeanne has said. kingslayer is a nice title but

i don't think i deserve it, although the gingrich campaign has implied as much. the reason he has fallen is because there are things and his background, particularly the pelosi ad and freddie mac is stuff, i think the vast majority of people in iowa didid not know until about three months ago. i had not known about it either, and i and in the business. there are ordininary iowans who do no have to follow this as obsessively as i do, for my sins, learning about this who were surprised as i was abt the pelosi ad and $1.6 million he has taken in. of course, his opponents level of the fire against him in. an unprecedented amount of money dropn in negative ads, the most vicious of which were for ron paul, of all people. he has the most effective negative ad that ran it, serial

hypocrisy, and it was an accumulation of new knowledge. >> the system works. over a long period of time, you find out what people are really like. he is admirable in many ways, but he is not a credible president of the united states. there was too much not just a little baggage but will questions about his leadership ability -- real questions about his leadership ability. he has never been a good leader, never been a good manager, and now the public knows that. >> it struck me, colby, that the criticism of the some many of his former colleagues of the same philosophical bent as if gingrich also took a toll. it started in thehe beltway people in the house and senate who said they would not have him at the top of the ticket. they feel that having newt gingrich at the top of the ticket hurts republican chances in the sate and house. what we have learned about it in

which is that he is not good organize -- wjla.comabout newt gingrich is that he is not a good organizer. he does not have money to respond to the criticicism. he does not have much on the tv at all. he does not have the ground troops out there. plus, he has his own baggage newt gingrich himself. he cannot point fingers at anody. they point fingers at his record, who he is, what t he has done, and that is what has taken him down. >> mitt romney does have to make more contemporary his analogies and metaphors. i mea lucille ball in the chocolate factory? that is going back to the korean war. >> marie antoinette he compares president obama to. >> that is historical, but lucille ball? there has been a lot of television since then. >> a lot of people want to bring back the 1950's and he is a sort

of thehe 1950's guy. >> don draper, that is what mitt romney is. >> mark, it was a classic episode. [laughghter]

i sweated the details. all the phone calls, the emails, the lost weekends. and then after twenty-two years, just like that, i was laid off. today there are so many americans like matthew. he worked hard and played by the rules. suddenly, he's out of a job. it's been a struggle not being able to find a job. but it's been our faith and family and friends that have helped us get through this. citizens energy was created to help the forgotten ones keep warm. we asked the big oil companies and oil producing nations to help. only citgo and the people of venezuela answered the call. and this year, in spite of soaring prices, washington

actually cut fuel assistance for families in need. so if you need help staying warm this winter give me a call. because in times like these, no one should be left out in the cold. >> record of an insider in the sense of being able to get things done but an ouider in being able to do what i've done which is reform congress throw boms when they need to be thrown. >> there is a rick santorurum, but in his credentials as an insider-outsiderer who is willing to toss a bomb when necessary. why, aer languishing for months, is a rick santorum catching on at the last moment? >> a lot of reasons. eight years ago, on the democratic side, gephardt and howard dean were inn the front.

they attack each other viciously. at the last moment, kerry and edwards slipped right in, won iowawa and were on the ticket. all the other candidates were heads above the hedges and have gotten a lot of artillery in coming as a r result except santorum. he was sort of written off. all these negativeds in iowa -- paul attacking bachmann, bachmann attackiking gingrich etc. -the only one who was not attached is santorum. he is now getting this moment, and the timing is perfect. there was one attack o on him a day or two ago, but its not going to work. he w will now, if he emerges, probably top three, b the not- romney not l is not a plausible presidential candidate in the -- what paul is not a plaible presidential candidate in the

end. everyther candidate who has had his moment in the sun has come down. >> it is more than just not being attacked. he also has some positives that have not been noticed as much outside of iowowa. ththe evangelical conservatives in iowa which represent a big part of the caucus constituency, have been the ones who have been shipping in shipping, trying to buy it and it -- shiftingng and shifting trying to find their candidate. they are starting to coalesce behind santorum. he received a very important endorsement from evangelical leader in iowa. that is what is giving him some momentum as well. it is positive energy. >> whatever is driving at, romney ought to be paying santorum because he is the perfect blocking die for him. in much bigger that wouould be if it rick perrrry made a comeback -- a much bigger threat would be

if rick perry made a comeback. he had these horrible debates but he is a plausible national candidate. >> perry's numbers are ring. >> i know that. but if it were to for santorum, is numbers might be really rising and he would be a real threat. >> the emergence of rick santorum and the success of ron paul is good argument for keeping the caasus as far as iowa is concerned, because both of them have followed the traditional role meeting upon meeting retail gcampaigning. >> it is helpful because it allows us to hava good look at the candidates and know who they are and what they are all about. i don't think people ought to disparage it at all.. what we e are seeing that is

interesting is the aversion that evangelicals have to mitt romney. i don't think that is just an iowa phenomenon. we will see that throughout the primaries as well. romney needs to make inroads with social conservativeves in the party. >> is it because of his faith or ideology? >> the combination of people think and he is really more moderate than he pretends to be. i don't think the 80's is -- it is his faith in the sense that he is a mormon, but that he is not evangelica like the governor of arkansas -- >> mike huckabee. >> i think him a being a mormon is a problem with this

constituency. >> we did a blooerg pololl. we tried to ask the question differently -- >> "are you a bigot?" >> do you believe tt mormonism is part of the christian trtradition, yes or no? it was about a 50-50 split. the people who thought that being mormon was part of the christian tradition had romney as their no. 1 candidate. the people who viewed it as something different at him in fourth. >> was it just among republicans? >> l likely caucus attendees. just to adadd to evan's thought about rick pry, our reporting indicates that romney's plan has been most afraid of perry because he has te moneynd a very good life story to tell.

had he not collapsed in the bate himself that was the candidate and a feared by far the most. . >> santorum appealed to the three reagan leggs of republican eight issues. onocial issues, he is the most reliable way of reign issues, he is the guy who went after ron paul for his isolatnism. on economics, he is a down-the- line conservative. he does not have a lot of baggage or apostasies on issues. >> ron paul is a one-two out of every poll in iowa. heresy apostasy, whatever else what has he got goingng for him evan? >> more good news for romney,y, because he cannot be eleed. >> no, but what is his appeal? >> isolationonism plays wewell in the midwest. in iowa, ey doon't want to be

in afghanistan, iraq. what does not work nationally works really well in iowa. also he is organized, he has a wholnetwork there. >> i watched him with the veterans' group this week in iowa. substantial crowd there in a number of young people going out to him and saying, "dr. paul --" they refer to him as dr. paul -- "i am honored to be in your presence." he is like a cult figure with some of the young people out ere and with the veterans as well. >> that's right. has the biggest veterans' support of anybody in the state as of this moment.

>> is one of the places -- iowa is one of the places where you still see retail politics. this is worth its weight at the beginning of the primary season, but not everybody is still on its continued significance in the nominating prorocess.. gail c collins in all but a " -- in "the new york times" poke fun at the state for being out rep. does it deserve all this criticism, and thomas -- evan thomas? >> yes and no. [laughter] >> there is a bold statement. >> it is not representativin the sense that it is isolationist extremely far right, and it does not take precedence. -- not picked presidents. but the one great thing is the retail business that you have

to go out there and meet the folks. because it is a long process, we do get t to know them. the qualities and failures are shown. >> but i think that that tradition has been really eroded in this cycle a itay be the end that kind of tradition. we now that santorum can go to all 99 counties, bachmann wants to do the same thing. romney barely went there, and is closing strong. he certainly has not been out there working -- >> he campaigned d at there four year ago. >> hee did and lost.t. what we're seeing in iowa this cycle is what we are seeing nationallyly, lots of television advertising instead of a lot of the town all sorts of things. we have debates and we have tv ads, but we have not had the same kind of retail politicking that we have seen in cycles past. >> let me give figures on the

representativeness. in 2008, barack obama got 54% of the vote in iowa, a 53% nationally george w. bush about 50% of the vote in iowa 50.7% nationally.y. that is pretty damn presentative ofhe nation if yoyou are talking politically and the way it votes. all the way back in 1996 -- >> but whyoes it have to be? if it what you wanted wa a representative state, you could have one primary election, in missouri, and then call it off. if you look at it in context, it works. we have arrive by pure accident at a system where a is iowa, new hashire, south carolina, nevada, and florida as the of states. that is a wonderful way to sample the count great he gives eaeach state a chance --

that ia wonderful way to sample the country. it gives each state a chance. if you put them together, in context it works. >> it is a wonderful proving ground for the candidates. we've learned something about them as a result of the iowa caucuses -- their ability to organize, their ability to define issues. sure, it is sort of a circular firing squad they have out there, but newt gingrich shows up and he is firing blanks and everybody saide would be a heavy weight. thfirst in the nation is always going to be helpful whether it is the caucuses or primaries. it helps focus our attention. >> iowa will probably always remain first at least for the duration, in part because who is going to change it? once you open that can of worms who is going to be number one? you choose a l large stake then a candidate like rick

santorum cannot survive. they would be way too dependent on money to get the message out. ithe would have huge fight over who would replacece iowa. >> that is the strongest argument, the david anand goliath, that you can that bender- financed underdog candidate connecting through sheer effort and personal charisma, whatever, a leadership talent, message to make a difference. >> and then he gets whacked in new hampshire. >> well, but the two of them together -- >> b the candidate has to ing sometng to the table too. chris dodd moved to iowa with his family four years ago and just collapsed. >> good point.

>> they tested confetti in times square in preparation for new year's eve. we thought we might test inside in both directions as we enter 2012. first, what in your judgment was the most significant political event of 2011? coy king? >> i think it was the fight over raising the debt ceiling limit and e ability of the republicans to connect that with budget cuts. and obama's ability to negotiate through that maelstrom. he came ouas a much weaker person, the congress came as a much weaker institution. >>eanne cummings? >> twofer -- rick perry going blank in the debate, the third or fourth debate he was in, was a huge amount from which he has yet to recover.. secondly, the story we e had at bloomberg news, the $1.6 million

that newt gingrich received from freddie mac h had a huge influence on the race. >> bonus to jeanne cummings at bloomberg. evevan thomas? >> the fact that both parties started talking about entitlement cuts. now, they did not do or cut anything so o it was pathetic in one sense but thehe fact that a political body is talking a about cutting entitlement programs is a momentous. >> charles krauthammer or? >> obama mckenney his political strength after a bad economy and the sllacking in the last election. the speech he gave in tucson, where he pivoted of the tragedy and made himself a sort of thehe father of the nation for night and the end of the year, where he completely out m maneuvered republicans on the deal with the payroll tax that. he stayed a lot higher than he

should be in popularity. >> now, a little pressure. the republican ticket, 2012. >> romney-rurubio. >> same. >> souounds good to me. >> i'll tell you -- romney and rob portman of ohio. tune in again next week. appens every year: fall turns to winter and brings in the cold. because of our economy, millions more will feel that chill than ever before. they're the forgotten ones. the big boys have abused the system to enrich only

themselves, while workers are still hurting. it could be a layoff after 22 years of working for the same company. or choosing between food and heat for a sick chk d. or after working your whole life, you don't have what you need to stay warm. you played by the rules, but who chchanged them? even though oil prices are soaring to record levels, in washington, fuel aid for the poor was cut in half. citizens energy asked big oil companies and oil producing nations to help. they all said 'no,' expect for citgo and the people of venezuela. for the last 7 years, citgo has helped struggling families in the united states in good times and in bad. so if you need help staying warm this winter, give me a call. because no one should be left out in the cold.