this week -- all eyes on iowa. >> it's pretty warm in the political kitchen. >> voters get their turn to speak in just two days. and in the final hour, some candidates rise. while others fall. >> i'm very satisfied with where we are. >> our headliners today, the man who may win on tuesday. texas congressman ron paul. >> ron paul would be dangerous as the president of the united states. >> and congresswoman michele bachmann. iowa once seen her salute. now she's struggling to hang on. complete caucus coverage today. including reporters on the

ground in the hawkeye state and insider perspective from iowa governor terry branstad and predictions from our powerhouse roundtable. good morning. and happy new year. i'm jake tapper. we have lots to get to today. but first, that brand-new poll from the des moines register showing mitt romney and ron paul essentially tied in iowa. romney with 24%. paul, within margin of error at 22% and a last-minute surge for rick santorum. the former pennsylvania senator rockets out of the single digits into third place with 15%. the story behind the numbers tells us that santorum has got the big move. the poll was taken over four days and in the last two of those days, santorum pulled away -- ahead of paul. within a hair's breath of romney. it's a trend to watch. another key number, 41% of those polled say they still could

change their minds. that's a glimmer of hope for the rest of the pack. newt gingrich, falling hard to 12%. rick perry, right behind him at 11% and michele bachmann bringing up the rear with 7%. so, yet, another twist in this race and the dramatic turn of fortune for gingrich. particularly remarkable, just one month ago, he was on top in iowa with 25%. but as our man jon karl tells us in our sunday feature, it's a long way down. >> reporter: it was the week newt gingrich would like to forget. think about it. he couldn't even get on the ballot in virginia and that's where he lives. when the virginia primary rolls around, gingrich won't be able to vote for gingrich. he said it was like pearl harbor. mitt romney suggested lucille ball as a better analogy. >> it's more like lucille ball at the chocolate factory. >> reporter: by midweek, gingrich proved that he could make chocolate just fine.

>> here am i in the chocolate factory. >> reporter: polls this week showed gingrich in a free fall. one put him in fourth place, another in fifth. he has been hammered by negative ads. and told us, he hasn't figured out how to respond yet. 45% of all ad manies the state of way have been negative against you. >> right, i'm committed to running a positive campaign. politics has become a really nasty, vicious, negative business and i think it's disgusting and i think it's dishonest. i think a person who will do that to be president. offers you no hope that they'll be good as president. >> reporter: we asked rick perry about this. he said that he has no regrets for the negative ads that he's run against gingrich. >> we have been telling the truth about the records. not like they played powder puff with me. >> reporter: with newt's collapse, look who's rising --

this week, rick santorum barely registered in the polls and couldn't seem to buy a crowd. now, santorum may be the hottest candidate in iowa. >> how are you? >> reporter: how does it feel? >> to be honest, it doesn't feel that much different. it really doesn't. i'm still doing what i'm doing. >> reporter: michele bachmann had an even worst week than gingrich, way down at the bottom of the polls, she ends up going on the attack against her own iowa co-chairman who jumped ship to support ron paul. >> he told me that he was offered money, he was offered a lot of money, by the ron paul campaign. >> reporter: and it was the week that ended in tears for newt gingrich. while at a town hall meeting, he was asked by a republican pollster about his mom who suffered from depression. >> you know, dealing with, you know, the real problems of real people in my family. >> reporter: and that brings us to trending. romney, up. the conservative anti-romney vote is divided and he's smelling victory.

newt gingrich, down. but he's been there before. up, rick santorum. nobody's rising faster in iowa. rick perry, up. he's picking up gingrich defectors and still spending lots of cash. up, kelly clarkson. ♪ my life would suck without you ♪ >> reporter: she endorses ron paul and watch as her cd sales go up 200%. down, the ames straw poll. remember when bachmann won? now, she's hoping to avoid a last-place finish. for this new year's edition for this week in politics, i'm jonathan karl. jake? >> thank you to jon karl. let's turn to congressman ron paul. many political observers say that he's on take to win. congressman, welcome and happy new year. >> thank you. nice to be with you. >> your rivals have started to

unload on you in the home stretch given your prominent perch in the polls. newt gingrich said your views, are quote, totally out of the mainstream of every decent american. jon huntsman has a web ad calling you unelectable. and even the des moines register poll that shows you essentially tied for first with mitt tied for first with mitt r0mney, says you're leading the pack in terms of who is least electable in a general election. this is a real area of vulnerability. how can you convince republican voters that you are perhaps electable against president obama? >> that whole thing in a contradiction in terms. if i'm leading in the polls i'm electable. i have been elected 12 times in texas. we're doing well in the polls. our crowds are getting bigger. the people are complaining are the ones who are way down in the polls. they don't have a lot of

credibility about my electability. indeed, nobody can prove anything until we have a vote. our campaign feels pretty good about how things are going. >> congressman, you would concede that some of your views, in terms of drug legalization or in terms of a -- you couldn't call it an isolationist view -- in terms of a noninterventionalist policy in the world, views that are not shared by a majority of americans and i think the concern among republicans, once they are better known, that would hurt you? >> but, i think that there's where the contradiction is. i don't believe that statistic. what percent wanted to come out of afghanistan? 75% or 85%. how did george bush get elected in 2000? no policing of the world? i mean, obama was seen as the peace candidate just three years ago. so, i would say the american people are with me more now than

ever before. they're with me on cutting spending. nobody else is proposing cutting spend. i want to cut a trillion dollars out of the budget. this support -- this gets support from all of the republicans on this. i would say that, it remains to be seen, but i feel very comfortable with the growing number of people that come out to our rallies, and the enthusiasm, i tell you what, it's a mistake if people want to write me off and say i'm not with the people. as a matter of fact, it's so appealing that we get a lot of independents and democrats coming to our rallies. that's what you need in order to win elections. i'm pretty optimistic about what's going on. what's going on. of course, i always have been optimistic about the message of liberty and i think it's catching on. i think people have come around believing that the government fails in their efforts to do good. they wouldn't to be a good policeman of the world.

look at the prolong gags of the worse overseas. >> all right, congressman, we have a lot of issues to discuss. only a few minutes left. i do want to ask you about those newsletters published under your name. in '90s you defended them. in 2001, you said that you did not write them. now you said you didn't write them and disavowed them. just, if you could give us a straight answer on these, who wrote these newsletters? >> well, i think your assessment there is mixed up. because the reporting has been bad. i wrote a lot of part of the letter. i never said that i didn't. i wrote some of the economic parts. i was not the editor, i was the publisher, and there were some very bad sentences put in. i did not write them, i didn't not review them. >> who wrote them? >> i condemned them. i don't know exactly who wrote them. i had eight to nine people working for me back then. lot of people wrote a lot of

different things. i have condemned them and did not write them and i have said this quite a few times. i just don't think that in itself is going to have long legs, because people who know me know exactly what my thoughts are, people know everything about that in my district, it's never been a big issue at all. and most importantly, on the issue of race relations, i'm the one that really addresses it, when we look at the drug war and the imprisonments, the court systems, the death penalty, the imbalance on the suffering of the minorities in our military, whether we have a draft or a no draft. i think the court system is very, very biased. whether it's the issue of the death penalty -- if you look at it's unbiased. i'm the only one that's talking about that. and i think, that people ought to -- you know, look at my positions there. rather than dwelling on eight sentences that i didn't write

and didn't authorize. and have been apologetic about. >> i think it's more than eight sentences. moving on, one of your former close aids recently said, you quote, engaged in conspiracy theories, including perhaps the 9/11 attacks were coordinated with the cia and that the bush administration might have known about the attacks ahead of time -- have you ever expressed -- >> wait, wait, wait. don't go any further than that. that's complete nonsense. >> not true? >> yeah. i never bought into that stuff. never talked about that. >> okay -- >> conspiracy of bush knowing about this? no, come on. come on. let's be reasonable. that's just off the wall. >> and lastly on the newsletters, you published a for-profit newsletter under your own name for decades, assuming

what you're saying is 100% true, you didn't see these sentences, doesn't this call into question your management style? >> well, yeah, i think so. but nobody, i don't think anybody in the world has been perfect on management. everybody that's ever worked for them. so, yes, it's a flaw, but i think it's a human flaw, i think it's probably shared by a lot more people than myself. when you have hundreds of people over the years that have worked for you, it's happened even in big corporations or big newspapers and tv stations, you can't monitor everything. it's the owner, get blamed for what the person say. you can't monitor every single thing. but it is a flaw. and, of course, i admit that i'm an imperfect person and didn't monitor that as well. but, to paint my whole life on that is a gross distortion.

we have to remember, i didn't write them and i didn't see them before that and i disavowed them. that's the most important thing. the only thing that we should do is you and others should look at my other statements in my defense of civil liberties. the defense is on honest and straight forward. you'll get an honest assessment of my views on race relations. that's all i ask for people to do. because i feet quite comfortable with myself. i know where the shortcomings were. but i'm very comfortable with my viewpoints. believing very sincerely those people who know me know exactly where the defect is in the race relations today, it's in the judicial system where minorities are mistreated. more so than anybody else. >> all right, congressman and dr. ron paul, thank you so much. good luck on tuesday. hope you have a great 2012. >> thank you. congressman ron paul, confident heading into tuesday's caucus. my next guest, sounds just like

as confidence. but her path forward is lot more murky. congresswoman michele bachmann joins me. thank you for joining us and happy new year. >> happy new year. great to be on with you this morning, jake. >> the last time we spoke, you had just won the iowa straw poll. now, that same poll has you with 7% of the vote, what happened to your campaign? >> well, we have had a very good campaign. i think what's happened is, lot of candidates have come in, and iowa voters and national voters have taken look at all of the other candidates, but we have done, i think, what no other candidate has done and that is after the last debate, we have gone across all of iowa, all 99 counties, we have done heavy, heavy retail politics, into cafes and into living rooms of

iowans, and we made strong connections with the iowa people. if you look at the poll, it's upwards of 40% to 50% of the iowans haven't made their decisions yet. i think the polls, what they're reflecting will be very different from what we're seeing on tuesday night. people make the decision in the caucus room. iowa very different, they gather in living rooms, elementary schools and they make their decisions on the spot with their neighbors. we have done what no other candidate has done, over the last two weeks, we have literally gone from town to town to town. meeting with people directly and we saw thousands of people switch their vote just in the last couple of weeks. we think there's going to be a very profound shift that people see on tuesday night. >> one of the dilemmas that you had, is a lot of the voters that you're competing for, conservative voter christian

evangelicals in some cases, are also being wooed by rick santorum and rick perry. santorum has momentum right now. he's at third place in the des moines register poll. and if you look at the last two days, he's in second place. he has social conservative credentials. he's fluent in foreign affairs. so why should voters go for you and not him? >> well, because i'm the strongest core conservative in this race. there is no comparison with all of the other candidates in my credentials. no other candidate has current national security experience in the race. i sit on the house intelligence committee. i'm daily involved with the issue of national security. no other candidate is. what we're seeing happening with iran obtaining a nuclear weapon, that will be a formidable issue immediately with the next president. i'm ready.

no other candidate is currently ready on that issue. also, i'm the only federal tax litigation attorney in this race. when it comes to dealing with the number one issue that's on voters' minds, which is out of control spending, i have that credential in spades over any other candidate. because no other candidate was leading on this issue in in the halls of congress or in washington or nationally. i called for saying no to letting barack obama increase the national credit card limit. when it comes to social issues, there's no one who could compare with my record. i'm a mother of five, a foster mother to 23 children that we have raised. also, i have record on marriage religious liberties. when it comes to values and issues, there's no one that comes close to me on those issues. i think even more so, i'm the one who's been proven and tested in the fires of washington and

that's why i think you saw people vote for me in the iowa straw poll. also, what we have done on the ground. no other candidate has done more retail campaigning on the ground. i think we'll bear the fruit of that on tuesday night. >> but, with all due respect, congresswoman, this is the same pitch that you have been making all summer and all fall and up until today, and you're in last place, according to the polls, and somebody that has similar credentials and appeal to you, rick santorum is showing huge momentum, why you over him? >> well, again, i think the polls take a few days to catch up and we have made that incredible deposit of going into every single county. we have drawn 300 people at a stop. we have drawn 250 people at a stop. lot of that isn't yet reflected in the polls. we're looking forward. we're not looking in the veer view mirror.

the outpouring of young people who are coming out to work on our phone banks, and going door to door is nothing short of amazing. we're number one in the category of enthusiasm. if you look at all of the candidates, which candidate has the most enthusiasm among their supporters? i'm that candidate. i'm number one with the 18 to 29-year-old voters. which are highly motivated. they're doing all of the work. i think that if you look at my past races, in polling that has showed me actually losing and eight points behind in previous races when running for congress, i win by 8 points, 13 points. sometimes polls belie the truth on the ground. this is about what we're seeing in reality. i think tuesday night, people are going to see a miracle. >> congresswoman, the last question, in the interest of candor and being based in

reality, you feel that you're going to have a very good night on tuesday, and all of the polls you're doing well, assuming that the polls are right, isn't that practically speaking the end of your campaign if you come in last on tuesday? >> well, we bought tickets to head off to south carolina and we're looking forward to the debates, january is a very full month, we're here for the long race. this is a 50-state race. we intend to participate not only in new hampshire, south carolina, florida, but to go all the way. because i intend to be the republican nominee and defeat barack obama in 2012. because america needs a candidate that will be a legacy of a ronald reagan and a margaret thatcher. that's what i intend to do, is to be america's iron lady. >> michele bachmann, good luck on tuesday and hope you have a wonderful 2012. >> thank you. same to you and your listeners.

up next, our first roundtable of 2012. we'll ask terry branstad who has the inside edge in his all-important state. this was the gulf's best tourism season in years. all because so many people wanted to visit us... in louisiana. they came to see us in florida... nice try, they came to hang out with us in alabama... once folks heard mississippi had the welcome sign out, they couldn't wait to get here. this year was great but next year's gonna be even better. and anyone who knows the gulf knows that winter is primetime fun time. the sun's out and the water's beautiful. you can go deep sea fishing for amberjack, grouper and mackerel. our golf courses are open. our bed and breakfast have special rates. and migrating waterfowl from all over make this a bird watcher's paradise. so if you missed it earlier this year, come on down. if you've already been here come on back... to mississippi... florida... louisiana...

alabama. the gulf's america's get-a-way spot no matter where you go. so come on down and help make 2012 an even better year for tourism on the gulf. brought to you by bp and all of us who call the gulf home. just two days i way from the iowa straw poll, let's go right to the roundtable.

wash tan examiner chief political correspondent byron york, craig robinson, found of the conservative blog, matthew dowd. thanks one and all for being here today. for giving up your new year's and for being here today. i want to go through those des moines register poll numbers again. the overall support numbers show romney with 24%. paul, 22%. santorum, 15%. but as you political junkie know, that this is the four-day poll. in the last two days, just looking at the last two days it's actually romney with 24%. santorum with 21%. paul with 18%. indicating some san-mentum. byron, you have been somewhat bullish on santorum for time. >> i have. he's the one who has room to grow. when you look at the other candidates, what happened to bachmann, to perry, to cain, they all fell because voters

began to realize that they weren't really prepared. they didn't have enough preparation or knowledge to be president. newt gingrich, a lot of social conservatives still can't get over the three-marriages parts. he has fallen after all of these negative attack ads. when you asked them what the problem was santorum was, they always said, he can't get elected. i really like him, but he can't get elected. if you take away that problem that is gone. he has room to grow. gingrich is apparently still falling. and there are some voters who still can go to santorum. >> and neera, you work for hillary clinton, who in the des moines register poll right before the 2007 or 2008 -- >> we don't have to remember. >> she was neck and neck with john edwards. ultimately at the e end she cam in third. what does a candidate have to be

able to withstand a not such a great showing in iowa to continue to run a campaign like secretary of state hillary clinton did? >> i think this is an issue for santorum. he can't -- rather he can be the alternative to romney, does he have the legs to go into south carolina and florida? i think that's why romney is okay with santorum coming up behind him, because it's really an issue of who can sustain. santorum doesn't seem like the threat that gingrich is. >> and craig, you're the iowan at the table here, the des moines register poll is important. >> absolutely. i mean, as the final snapshot, i almost think that this poll is more important because it might be a tiebreaker for a voter. where, if you're trying to weigh between santorum and bachmann, you'll probably likely to go with the person who's in front

instead in the break. santorum clearly broke away from the back of the pack. so, i think that means gingrich and perry probably stay put and santorum has all of this momentum. i think he's going to take those votes and probably have a real shot at second place or even winning this thing. >> matt, put this into perspective for us, what have we learned? >> well, the interesting thing about this is, iowa is not known for picking the president. they are known for picking the losers. if you don't survive the iowa gauntlet, it's hard to go on. we'll see a number of candidates either on wednesday morning or the day after, beginning to say our campaign is folding. >> predictions? >> well, we'll get there. >> okay, okay. >> to me this whole thing is incredible. it's an incredible circus atmosphere over. it reminds me of the car that pulls into the ring of the circus. all of the clowns start getting out. the last one comes out of the trunk. rick santorum is getting out of

the trunk today. i don't think rick santorum can sustain it. he has no national -- when mike huckabee rose last time in iowa, he was rising nationally. we still say that newt gingrich has fallen. but gingrich is tied nationally in this race. if gingrich survives iowa and gets through new hampshire, he still has a shot to do well in south carolina and florida. but what iowa will do, and new hampshire, this field has gone from seven candidates to three or four. and that, i think, jake, that's mitt romney's real test. when this race is no longer a seven-person race, can he get 35% of the vote in places other than new hampshire? he hasn't proven that he can do that. >> mitt romney may win with fewer votes on tuesday than he got four years ago after running for six years. >> he came in second against mike huckabee. >> right. he's been doing this for a very long time. obviously, there's a lot of

consternation on the party on it. when you're in a three-person race, this was the same four years ago with hillary, who can be the alternative? and will that person outgrow -- >> we have seen negative ads really do work. gingrich was at 25% at the last des moines register poll. he's at 12% now. biggest fall anybody. these ads run by romney's super pac and ron paul ad was devastating. you couldn't be in des moines or anywhere in iowa, listen to the radio, watch television, and not see an ad bashing newt gingrich. >> half the ads in iowa had a gingrich focus. >> of all the tv ads. >> and a vast majority were negative. 45% of the ads aired in iowa were anti-gingrich. can anybody withstand that kind of negativity? >> they can withstand it -- the reason they were so effective on newt gingrich is because they were true.

here's a guy that arrived with a tremendous amount of baggage and stuff that people, i liked how he was impressing the base. i think it has a lot to do with this guy is a total creature of washington. >> isn't there a problem with romney? when you look at romney super pack ads. they're beating gingrich up on being a flip flopper. so, i think going down past iowa has romney's super pac given other candidates the key to attacking romney? >> that raises the question, where have the anti-romney ads been? he has a whole trunk load of baggage. with romney care. rick perry could have run some. i asked him yesterday, why haven't you guys attacked mitt romney? they said we're fighting. they we're fighting for second place. we're fighting with the conservatives. in the meantime, they're not attacking mitt romney the way they're attacking gingrich. >> i totally agree with that.

they're not contracting themselves with mitt romney. if they wanted to be the nonromney, they should have gone after mitt romney. michele bachmann should have gone after mitt romney. rick perry should have gone. one of them should have said i'm not going to go after the not going to go after the not going to go after the not going to go after the one of them should have said i'm one of them should have said i'm one of them should have said i'm going after mitt romney. >> the irony of this race, newt gingrich who has had a long record of negativity, decided in the last month to be a completely passive, positive candidate, i think that will change dramatically, he's telling people that he'll go more negative. we're going have a debate this saturday. you'll see, i think -- >> i think he's taking the truth. >> i think he's saying, he seems to be telling -- he's going to be contrasting with mitt romney. much more directly. >> if he finishes in iowa, that's damaging to him. i know he's currently leading in

south carolina and florida. but after iowa, i mean, we have seen mike huckabee change the dynamics of the poll in 2008. i don't think romney can count on his standing in other polls in other states, after iowa if he finishes purely there. >> that was the strategy on his part. after the early debates, every republican that watched him liked the fact that he didn't go after fellow candidates. he said that we only have one real opponent and that's barack obama. remember when perry and romney were going after each other? he was above it all. it worked for him until the romney ads came out. >> but he's been tanking. it's been ten days and he's tanked significantly after ten ten days of ads. it seems odd that he hasn't changed his strategy in the last week or so. >> i question if he'll have that opportunity to be that elder statesman after iowa.

when the focus of the race is going to be on romney, ron paul or santorum, i mean, once again, he goes to the outside edges of the debate stage and can you still be that elder statesman? >> let's talk about romney for one second. another interesting note, in the des moines register poll, they asked would-be caucus goers who do you think is the most electable? the best chance of beating president obama? look at this. romney 48%. gingrich, 13%. and ron paul, 12%. so there are more people in iowa will attend the caucus who think that romney has the best chance but will not vote for him than there are people who think that romney has the best chancened will vote for him. >> this is what santorum is trying to fight against. he said, look, don't play pundit. don't play pundit. vote for who you think this is best. he's saying that at every single event he goes to. because he knows that the number one consideration among iowa voters is electability. of course, for a while, they thought that was herman cain, newt gingrich. santorum is saying, please, vote

for who you think is best. >> to me the this is the entire -- this is the entire narrative of this campaign. mitt romney, why hasn't he been able to close the deal with voters? mitt romney, nationally, the only place that he seems to break this is new hampshire, where he basically has a house. why can't he performed better than any other candidate at a debate, he has the most money, the most electable, he can't close the deal. they keep looking. no matter who it is. whether it's michele bachmann, rick perry, herman cain, newt gingrich, michele bachmann and now rick santorum. 12k3w4r ron paul. >> and ron paul. this's another twist in this race. i think mitt still has to prove that he can exceed a level of can he get past 30% of the vote? >> as a democrat, no offense, as a democrat --

>> no offense taken. >> who do you least want president obama to face? who's the biggest threat? >> that is very hairy -- lot of people will say mitt romney. but you know the challenge for mitt romney is that he so represents the 1%. wall street. so much of what americans are angry and upset about. there's a strain of economic populism in both parties. it's a driving force. it's been helping the president over the last four, five months. he's doing better now. than he's been doing in a long time. he's in a stronger position. >> relatively speaking. let's not go crazy. >> a run for mitt romney and the new hampshire, manchester newspaper did in this its endorsement of gingrich, romney

really represents all that people are angry about in america. so, i think, after a year-long campaign, i think romney is going to be vulnerable. >> president obama cannot have this race be about him. if this race is about president obama he'll lose. i remember very very well in 2004, when the democrats were running for president, all of the democrats were running around, saying how vulnerable president bush was, he can be beat even, president obama's job approval ratings is 10 points lower. at the same time. the consumer confidence in this country is lower. the number in country is 40 points higher than it was in 2004. so, to me, this race, if we are sitting where we are today and whoever the republican nominee is, president obama can't win under the circumstances that exist today. unless he decimates the republicans so badly the alternative becomes i don't want president obama but that republican is so bad --

>> let's turn to predictions. to put a button on this last thought, who would be the most difficult person for him to be decimate? >> i think it's mitt romney, romney seems to be best able to sort of adapt himself to the circumstances of the time and make himself seem that he can appeal to independent voters. he seems most adaptable. >> but that's one of the reasons it's easy to go after him. >> you sound like the bush campaign of 2004 talking about john kerry. >> the problem with that is, nobody sees president obama like they saw president bush. >> we have to wrap this up. i want quick predictions, iowa, tuesday, what's going to happen? >> three-way tie. i don't know who's on top. >> i'll go santorum with the momentum. >> santorum, number one. >> i would say mitt romney wins with less than he had before. >> santorum. >> santorum, san-mentum.

up next -- we head to iowa and the reporters who covered this campaign day in and day out and hawkeye governor terry branstad joins us with his on the ground expertise.

seven candidates 13 debates. hundreds of rallies. thousands of commercials. millions of dollars.

it all comes down to just one question, who will iowa voters pick on tuesday night? let's go to des moines and iowa republican governor terry branstad. governor, happy new year. thanks for joining us. >> happy new year. i tell you, i think we'll have a great turnout. people want a change in direction. they know that we can't sustain this increase in national debt. a trillion dollars a year under president obama. they don't like the fact that president obama has divided the country. >> all right, so, who do you think is going to win on tuesday? who has the edge? would you agree with the des moines register that right now it looks like it's between romney and ron paul? >> well, also, you see santorum kind of surging here at the end. i think it's a wide-open race. i have always said that a candidate like santorum that goes to every county and works really hard, puts the time in and builds the organization has a good chance.

i think romney has come back and worked very hard in the last few weeks. had a very successful bus tour. ron paul has worked this state very hard as well. so, those are the three that are the front-runners. but, also, rick perry could do better than some people think. gingrich was ahead just a few weeks ago. who knows? it all depends on who turns out. i think we're going to see a turnout because people want to replace obama with somebody that's going to restore fiscal integrity and grow the america economy again. >> why has this caucus been so volatile? with so many front-runners and so many people going up and down in the poll like a roller coaster. >> well, i think it's because of the debates. as you said, there have been more debates than ever before. i think social media has played a role as well. i think people are looking for the perfect candidate and most people have come to the realization that there isn't a perfect candidate. but we can't afford the direction the country is going. we need to choose the strongest

candidate to re-create the american dream and bring federal spending under control. and restore america's leadership position. >> the des moines register poll, which is a very respective poll, indicates that governor romney, mitt romney is about where he always is, 35%, in the polls, when you ask the iowa caucus-goers who is the most electable? they overwhelming think romney -- a plurality of them think that he's the most lebltable. but his support is not there. what's going on there? iowa voters think that romney is the most likely to beat obama, but they don't like him? >> well, i think they're looking for the perfect candidate and there are some things that romney's record in massachusetts that they don't like. but there are some things that -- about the other candidates

that they don't like, either. when compared to obama and they see what obama has done, increasing the national debt by a trillion dollars a year, the entrepreneurs and the business class in this country, i think people are looking for the best leader and i can tell you, having been through several races for governor including beating an incumbent democrat in two years ago, i also in those polls, was the one that people felt was the most likely to win. i think iowa voters and american voters want somebody -- they're not happy with the direction of the country. they want to replace obama and i think that's an important factor in the closing days here of the iowa caucus campaign. >> governor, as you know, some establishment republicans fear that if ron paul wins it will be the death nail for the iowa caucuses. tell us why that is not the case in your view. >> iowa has always whittled the field. it's about beating expectations

here. i think you have three contenders that are going to go out of iowa, if you're not in the top three in iowa, i told jon huntsman that, you're making a big mistake. jon huntsman made a big mistake by not coming here and campaigning here. other candidates, especially rick santorum, who didn't have lot of resources but worked very hard, i think he'll be awarded for that. ron paul, i think, deserves credit for putting a strong effort in here. lot of resources and lot of time in. people like the fact that he's been consistently against this deficit spending and manipulation of the monetary system in this country. i think people have some misgivings about his positions on foreign policy and i think that's something that people are starting to focus on here. >> all right, governor branstad, thank you so much for joining us and happy new year. >> thank you, same to you. now let's bring in two reporters in the hawkeye state. my friends,

abc's senior political correspondent jonathan karl and iowa radio reporter o. kay henderson. jon, what strikes you as different about this one? >> we have never seen one that's been so up and down. jake, think about it. look back, six different candidates at one point or another, held the lead. or tied for the lead in iowa. every single one currently in this race has been on top with the exception of one and that's rick santorum and he's the guy coming up now. this thing is wide open. that makes it a lot of fun to cover. >> kay, you covered every iowa caucus since 1997, you see mitt romney for the second time, he campaigned last time and he won the straw poll, came in second in the iowa caucus. now he's trying again for a win, is he any different now as he was a candidate four years ago? >> he is, indeed.

he's much more confident candidate on the stump. there have been several incidents where he's shown that confidence. he also stuck to a campaign strategy that i don't think many people would have stuck to if they didn't run before. the other thing about this campaign, is that it reminds me a bit about 1996, irony for me, the people who are running romney campaign on the ground here were running lamar alexander's operation in iowa in 1996. so, they know what it's like to be facing surging candidates at the end and this may well turn out to be 1996 all over again. where bob dole eked out a victory. pat buchanan was in second place. whether a mar alexander got the third ticket out of iowa. >> jon, kay just talked about romney strategy in iowa a muddle message of whether he's competing or whether he's not competing. what has been the reality of his strategy in the hawkeye state?

>> well, romney, the campaign, hands off on iowa. noncommittal. they didn't compete in the ames straw poll. a big question on whether or not they would make a run in iowa. what i'm told that republicans here have noticed that romney has had a subterranean campaign for a long time. romney people signing people up in the summer. getting names, getting phone numbers and addresses. romney has had much more of a campaign in the state than he has let on. of course, he's all-in. >> kay, we haven't had a debate in several weeks, i'm actually going through debate withdrawal, because we had them at seemingly every day for several months, and now we haven't had any, but without the debates that clearly hugely impactful on iowa voters, how have voters been getting their information in the absence of these debates? >> they have been doing it the

old-fashioned way, they have been listening to what the candidates are saying on the stump. they're listening to these campaign ads. that's why you have seen gingrich fall, he didn't have a debate performance to reassure iowans that he was a guy that could carry their message forward. >> jon, romney and his allies, the pro-romney super pac and congressman ron paul, they have been attacking newt gingrich viciously on the airwaves. according to one study that we talked about earlier, 45% of the tv ads run in iowa have been anti-newt gingrich. his response has been to almost turn the other cheek, can he continue to still have this nice guy policy? >> absolutely not. i'll tell you right now, jake, that gingrich himself is looking at this very carefully, he's made much of his promise to be positive, in fact, when you go

out with gingrich on the stump here, he gets applause when he says, we stayed positive. he's called it a wonderful experiment. can someone who has been hammered remain positive? that's about to change. look for a new newt gingrich after iowa. i think he'll go on the attack and on the attack in a very big way in south carolina. it's going to be aimed at mitt romney. >> jon, as somebody who covered capitol hill as have i, newt gingrich is not historically known for sweetheart, powder puff politics, this is a guy who has been rather tough in years past, right? >> you know, some would say he's invented this thing that he now condemns. listening to him now, he talks about what a cruel business politics has become. a big question whether or not he's the messenger to deliver that. the question is, who most

relates to ordinary iowans? gingrich comes in dead last, followed by mitt romney. but, you know, his message of being positive out here. they like the idea of a positive campaign. but it's an interesting one coming from newt gingrich. >> kay, covering the iowa caucuses four years ago, almost as if any time anyone said anything negative the press corps, we all shrieked and couldn't believe the horror of people going negative. but, when you're out in iowa, as i have been on this campaign season, voters listen to these ads and they read the fact checks in the newspapers and on tv and they consider this another source of information. >> they do. particularly with gingrich, it reminded they had problems with his marital history, legislative history.

they had problems with his history after he left congress. i'm nervous about him for all of the above. that's what the ads did, they reminded people about the things that they didn't like about newt gingrich. >> while i was out in the in iowa, what i heard from iowan republicans, the most important thing for them was they wanted to beat barack obama. that was the top priority. but, how do you reconcile the idea of that according to the des moines register poll, almost half of the would-be attendees at the iowa caucuses think that romney would be the strongest opponent and yet his support is less than half that. do they think he's the most electable? they just don't buy him for some reason. >> well, i think there's a difference between those voters who vote with their head and those who vote with their heart. and i think

that particular statistic drives the nail on that point. the other thing about turnout when you look at 41% of the people who responded, of likely caucus goers in that des moines register poll said they were convincible. they might vote for someone else on caucus. the real thing for caucus if they don't reach 2008 levels, that will show us something that all republicans have been talking about, there's no enthusiasm. whereas, republicans like governor branstad have been indicating that republican voters are so enthusiastic about replacing barack obama. if among 41% of people that they're convincible, if they just stay home because they're not interested in a candidate, i think that will be really a huge indicator about the republican race in general and how enthusiastic about republicans are about this 2012 race. >> all right, we're down to the wire here. one word, your prediction, kay? >> romney.

>> jon? >> i'll go santorum. >> all right, thanks so much. happy new year. up next -- next week in politics. your cheat sheet to the iowa endgame and beyond. cheat sheet to the iowa endgame and beyond.

brace yourself for a busy few days as voting finally begins. here's a look at what to expect next week in politics. the iowa caucuses arrive tuesday. the republican candidates are making their final push, campaigning throughout the state. front-runner mitt romney rallies in davenport and dubuque on tuesday. rand paul joins his father ron paul on the campaign stump. making stops in des moines and cedar falls. after the caucuses that night, the iowa survivors club will move on to the live free or die state of new hampshire. except rick perry will head straight to south carolina.

making two stops in aiken county wednesday afternoon. the remaining gop field meets saturday night in manchester for the abc news/new hampshire debates. moderated by diane sawyer and george stephanopoulos. it begins at 9:00 p.m. eastern, 6:00 p.m. pacific. and we'll be right back. 6:00 p.m. pacific. and we'll be right back. a second is a very long time. long enough for a train track in taiwan to sense an malfunction and alert the operators. or to spot a power disruption in texas before it spreads. or help a global finance company pinpoint fraud and protect customers. smarter analytics is helping companies all over the world predict what's coming and act on it now. that's what i'm working on. i'm an ibmer. let's build a smarter planet. impact wool exports from new zealand,

textile production in spain, and the use of medical technology in the u.s.? at t. rowe price, we understand the connections of a complex, global economy. it's just one reason over 75% of our mutual funds beat their 10-year lipper average. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. request a prospectus or summary prospectus with investment information, risks, fees and expenses to read and consider carefully before investing. ♪ and now, in memoriam. ♪ >> this week the pentagon released the names of six service members killed in afghanistan.

we'll be right back. we'll be right back.

when bp made a commitment to the gulf, we knew it would take time, but we were determined to see it through. today, while our work continues, i want to update you on the progress: bp has set aside 20 billion dollars to fund economic and environmental recovery. we're paying for all spill- related clean-up costs. and we've established a 500 million dollar fund so independent scientists can study the gulf's wildlife and environment for ten years. thousands of environmental samples from across the gulf have been analyzed by independent labs under the direction of the us coast guard. i'm glad to report all beaches and waters are open for everyone to enjoy. and the economy is showing progress with many areas on the gulf coast having their best tourism seasons in years.

i was born here, i'm still here and so is bp. we're committed to the gulf for everyone who loves it, and everyone who calls it home. and that is our program for today. be sure to tune in next saturday when diane sawyer and george stephanopoulos moderate the abc news republican presidential debate live from manchester, new hampshire, at 9:00 p.m. eastern. and next sunday, george stephanopoulos returns to "this week," taking over this broadcast as we plunge into this exciting election year. for all of us here, thanks for watching. happy new year. we'll see you next week. watching. happy new year. we'll see you next week.