>> schieffer: today on face the nation we'll find out in a matter of hours do the democrats have the votes to pass health care reform? >> we are going to get this done. >> we're about 24 hours from armageddon. >> schieffer: the house will have an up or down vote on the senate health care reform bill sometime today. do they have the 216 votes they need to pass it? we'll ask the men who are tracking the votes. house whip james clyburn of south carolina and the key political strategist chris van hollen of maryland. if it does pass, can republicans then stop it in the senate? we'll talk with the republican

leader there mitch mcconnell of kentucky and democrat dick durbin of illinois. i'll have a final thought on an anniversary we should not for get. first counting the votes on "face the nation." captioning sponsored by cbs "face the nation" with cbs news chief washington correspondent bob schieffer. and now from cbs news in washington, bob schieffer. >> schieffer: good morning again. so today is the day. the house will finally vote on health care reform and a year- long debate that's been rancorous and mean from the start turned even nastier yesterday. demonstrators protesting the bill poured into the halls of congress shouting kill the bill and made in the ussr. as tempers rose, they hurled racial he threats even at civil rights icon john lewis of georgia and sexual slurs at massachusetts democrat barney

frank. other legislators said the protester spit on them. one lawmaker said it was like a page out of a time machine. one of the lawmakers who saw all this is the chief vote counter for the democrats jim clyburn who is at the capital this morning. still working the hallways for votes. he's with the democrats' chief political strategist congressman chris van hollen of maryland. congressman clyburn before we talk about this do you have the votes, what about these demonstrators yesterday? have you seen anything like this in recent times? >> no, not in recent times. thank you so much for having us. the last time i saw anything like that was back in 1960. i celebrated a week ago the 50th anniversary of the march to organize the so-called orange burg seven of which i was. two others, three of us got together with some students

last monday to talk those experiences. we were telling those students how this kind of stuff was behind us. i suspect that i might have to modify some of that after yesterday. >> schieffer: i think i should add that republican leaders this morning along with democrats such as yourself have denounced these demonstrations. be that as it may, it just shows how hot tempers are and how volatile this whole situation has been. congressman van hollen, the two of you have been tracking these votes. where are you right now do you think? >> mr. clyburn is the whip. he informs me he's absolutely confident when the vote comes we will have the votes to get this gone. what we've seen is in our recent weeks and months as our members have gone back to their districts and talked with their constituents, they're getting the very clear signal that the status quo is unacceptable. we have a system where the health insurance industry continues to increase premiums by huge amounts, turn down

constituents for coverage based on pre-existing conditions, have fine print in health care policies to deny access to care when people need it the most and that the status quo is just unacceptable. that has built this consensus to get this done. >> schieffer: mr. clyburn, from the beginning the democrats have been saying we think when this finally comes to a vote this afternoon we will have the votes. you don't have them yet though. do you? in all honesty? >> well, you know, in doing vote counting you try sometimes to work backwards. you look at what it is that you're dealing with. then you look at the members who have issues that you must reconcile. you start counting back. that's the way that i do it. we do believe that the issues that are of concern to people, you know, like racial disparities in health care, we have been talking about that but it's been regional

disparities that has caused us the problem in this health care bill. we are trying to make sure that we reconcile those differences in such a way that every state, every community feels that they are in fact getting the just return on their investment. so these issues have caused us to really be very, very careful as we move to the final vote. that's why we are not going to talk about that 216 number until such time as we get to the floor. >> schieffer: but our cbs count, we put you at having maybe as few as 204 votes. but maybe somewhere around 210 which would mean you're about six votes short now. there's about a dozen votes, it would seem to me, that are in flight. mr. van hollen, why is it that house democrats are so wary of voting for this bill that the

senate has passed? >> well, first of all, bob, we're going to get the votes to go over the top. but the reason the senate bill created some controversy is there are some things that shouldn't have been in the original senate bill. for example, the nebraska deal and some other deals. we're getting rid of those. we're getting rid of the nebraska deal. we're getting rid of the deal that was in there for florida and new york. we're making other improvements to this bill to make sure that coverage is more affordable. that's why our members are now very comfortable voting for the senate bill always amended, as it's going to be amended by the reconciliation bill. that's the package. we're going to have a majority of votes to get that done. as i said, it is a whole lot better than the status quo when it comes to health care. >> schieffer: just for those who don't follow this as closely as we do here in washington, the basic deal here right now is you have made a decision, you're going to vote on if senate bill. even though many in the house don't like it. you're going to take an up or down vote on that. then as i understand it, next you will vote on what is

called this reconciliation bill which corrects a lot of the things in the senate bill that house members don't like. mr. clyburn, what about those in the house? and i know you've had problems. there are about a dozen that were very concerned that this senate bill does not go far enough on abortion about prohibiting public funds and these insurance plans from covering abortion. i'm told how that the president is going to issue some sort of an executive order that you hope will satisfy that group of people. where is that? is that settled yet? >> i don't think it's quite settled yet but i think it will be by late afternoon. bob stupak and i spent a lot of time together last evening. i've seen him on one of the networks saying we are very, very close. i think we'll be there by the time that we vote. i fully expect that we'll get

the votes that are necessary. >> schieffer: you do expect to have his vote. now, let me ask you this about these reconciliation corrections. are you satisfied that these corrections will pass parliamentary muster when they go over to the senate because as you well know the senate parliamentarian has to rule on whether they are germane. if they are, they have to have something to do with reducing the deficit. mr. van hollen, are you telling your people that this can work? and how do you have the assurance that the senate will actually pass this reconciliation part? because i know that's one of the things that a lot of people in the house are worried about. they're afraid that the senate will just turn its back on that and then house members will be left out there on a limb having voted for something that they don't really like. >> we are confident it will work and harry reid the senate leader came over to address the house caucus yesterday.

he said he had absolute commitments from the majority of senators to get this done. it does meet the deficit reduction requirements. in fact, the congressional budget office has said that over the first ten years of this bill, it will reduce the deficit by $143 billion. over the second ten years by $1.2 trillion. so this is more than paid for. it's fiscally responsible. i will say unlike some of the bills that have been passed in the past by our predecessors which drove up the deficits this actually reduces the deficit. >> schieffer: let me ask you this, mr. clyburn. i know some house members are so distrustful of the senate that they have actually demanded that senators send them a letter with 51 signatures on it, assuring them that if they pass these corrections to the bill that the senators, those 51, will pledge to vote to approve those corrections. have you obtained such a letter from the senate?

or will that be necessary? >> it's not necessary for me. when senator reed came over yesterday, he told me that he had these ironclad commitments and asked me whether or not i wanted to see the letter. i said, no, i don't need to see the letter. your word is good enough for me. now i know as an institution, we sometimes distrust the senate. but the facts still remain that i think they're people of good will. we'll get this done. >> schieffer: when you say you don't need to see the letter, does that say that there is such a letter, that he has collected those signatures? >> well, i don't know if he's got the signatures or not. i was told that a letter exists. now whether he was asking me whether or not i would need to see something that was in his possession, whether or not he would get me something before we started voting, i don't know exactly what he meant by that. but i did tell him that his word was good enough for me. >> schieffer: mr. van hollen, quickly, are some democrats

facing defeat out there? members of the house in some of those marginal districts if they vote for this bill? >> no, they're not facing defeat. what will happen, bob, is this. once we pass this bill. everyone will see right away that all those horror stories are not going to come true. the world is not going to come to the end. it's not going to be armageddon. there won't be the death panels. they'll begin to see the benefits. we'll be closing the donut hole so seniors have more help for their prescription drugs. we're going to make sure there are lifetime limits on out of pocket costs. there are a lot of benefits that people will see. they'll see a lot of the hysteria and the fearmongering wag just not true. >> schieffer: thank you so much. both of you for a very enlightening discussion bringing us up to the minute. we'll be back to get the republican side of this. employees everywhere are sending out an sos.

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does pass the house it goes back to the senate, of course. now we'll talk to two key senate leaders, democrat richard durbin. the number two democrat in the democratic leadership in the senate. he's in springfield this morning. we begin with the senate's top republican mitch mcconnell. >> good morning. >> schieffer: good morning to you, senator. thank you for coming. it looks like you have your work cut out for you. the democratic vote counters there just said they believe they're going to have the votes to pass this in the house. that means this bill and the corrections that the house is going to make go to the senate. what happens then? >> well, they'll have a tough sell first in the house. they'll have to get their members to vote for the senate bill which has the nebraska deal, the louisiana deal, the florida deal, and then they'll have to get them to vote for a second bill which has even bigger medicare cuts than the first bill even more tax increases than the first bill. and its own set of special deals. for example, the rocky top vote swap.

the deal made to get the vote of a congressman from tennessee who voted against the bill the first time and is apparently going to vote for it this time. special deal for a hospital in his district. so the second measure that will come back to the senate is not exactly free of special deals. that is the proposal if the house can pass both these measures that the senate will take up next week. >> schieffer: so what will be your tactic? what will be your strategy? will you just offer a series of amendments to try to just drag this out? what will republicans do? >> well it's not a question of dragging it out. it's a question of making sure the american people know what's in it. we'll have all kinds of amendments on the substance. then of course there are special rules that apply to one of these so-called reconciliation bills that will be tested in the senate. it will be various rulings by the parliamentarian as to whether things meet the so- called byrd rule. those will be tested in votes

as well. >> schieffer: the byrd rule of course is it must be germane to reducing the deficit in order to be considered under this reconciliation plan which we should underline the reason that democrats are trying to do it that way is they can pass this with a simple majority of 51. >> that's correct. it's been used before by both sides. interestingly enough though the only time it's been narrowly partisan when it was used each party lost the senate the next year. in '93 we had narrowly partisan use of reconciliation for the biggest tax increase in history at that time. and the next year my party took the house and senate. in 2005 we used it for a deficit reduction package. it was narrowly passed on a partisan basis. we lost the senate the next year. most of the time we've used this device in the past, the measure has passed by a large bipartisan majority. >> schieffer: just walk us through this. what happens when it gets to the senate?

what's the first thing you will do? >> i'm not going to announce it today. we will have a series of amendments on the substance of the bill. that will highlight the massive medicare cuts, the massive tax increases. and other deficiencies that we think are the reason the american people are against this bill. i mean what's going on here, bob, is that the democrats in the house and senate are trying to convince their members to basically ignore their own constituents and do something that's highly unpopular even though the public opinion is pretty darned clear that americans don't want this. >> schieffer: do you think at this point you can stop this bill from passing? >> i'm not going to make a prediction as to what may happen. but it could end up going back to the house of representatives for a second vote. they may not be through with it after today. they may get it back if it doesn't succeed in the senate. >> schieffer: we hear that, you know, that president obama's put it all on the line for this. he put his whole presidency on the line to get this passed. it's his signature thing.

aren't republicans in a way putting it all on the line by being totally opposed to this? >> look, bob, this is not about the president. it's not about the republicans. it's about the nation's health care. we have a significant difference of opinion about the direction in which to go. interestingly enough, the american people agree with us that this bill ought to be put on the shelf and that we ought to start over and go step by step to fix the problems of cost which is the big problem in the u.s. health care system. >> schieffer: you today,-- and this will be my final question to you-- you are making no predictions on whether you can stop this bill or not. obviously you'll try but you can't say at this point that you think you can solve it. >> we know the american people want us to. we owe it to the american people to do the very best we can to keep this bill from passing so that we can start over and get it right. >> schieffer: all right. mitch mcconnell, thank you for being with us this morning. >> thank you, bob. >> schieffer: now we want to talk to dick durbin, the

senator from illinois who is the number two democrat in the democratic leadership in the senate. senator durbin, what will be the first thing that you will do if, let's say that's correct the house does pass this? >> of course we've been working on this for quite a long time. last week harry reid our leader and senator schumer and senator murray and i have met with every democratic senator face to face so that we understand the importance of this vote. i listened to senator mcconnell talk about the procedure and the process and the politics. but i think our members impressed by the substance of our challenge here. if we do nothing, as the rech cans suggest, we're going to see health care costs reach a point where small businesses can't afford and families can't afford it. we're going to see people turned down from pre-existing conditions. we're going to find the medicare donut hole, a gap in coverage that is going to hurt a lot of seniors. so when you get to the substance beyond the politics of the next election, we think this is a clear choice. >> schieffer: let me ask you just a little bit about the

politics first. you just heard mr. clyburn the top vote counter in the house saying that senator reed said to him yesterday do you want to see the letter. we've been hearing reports that house democrats were demanding a letter with the signatures of 51 democratic senators. they're so distrustful of the senate that they were asking to see a letter with the names of 51 of you on it. assuring them that they would pass the corrections to the original senate bill that the house wants. there such a letter? will it be given to house members? >> yes, there is such a letter. it has been discussed with senator reed and speaker pelosi. she knows and we know that there is a majority to pass this reconciliation bill in the senate democratic caucus. >> schieffer: it's written down on a piece of paper, 51 signatures by democrats that if the house passes these corrections that they will sign that? >> let me tell you, i think

there may even be more than 51. the speaker knows this. she's spoken directly to senator reed. at this point we're ready to move forward. >> schieffer: how does this work then? i mean the house passes these two bills today. if they do have the votes. what do you take up? and when do you take it up, senator durbin? >> understand, health care reform if the house passes both today is a law that will be sent to the president. we will have health care reform in america. the reconciliation bill which the house is i hope also going to pass makes it even better. in terms of making it more affordable for families and businesses, closing this donut hole, making sure that we have more health care clinics across america. to keep people out of emergency rooms and give them basic care. we think we're on a path now to pass reconciliation in the senate. but the rules are a little different, bob. in the senate we have senator robert byrd who if he didn't invent reconciliation

certainly reinvented it. we need to play by those senate rules to bring this to completion. >> schieffer: do you think you can do that this week? >> yes. >> schieffer: do you think this will be done this week? >> we'll start it this week and we'll.... >> schieffer: what do you do when the republicans, senator mcconnell was playing his cards very close to the vest this morning, as you heard. but he said we're prepared to introduce amendments. this could go on, as we know in the senate, there can be amendments and amendments and amendments. how do you bring that to a close, if in fact you can? >> it's never been tested. you know, the purpose of reconciliation is to afford the filibuster. the filibuster is an effort to talk something to death. in this case, the republicans are going to try to use reconciliation which was supposed to be a more direct process to offer amendments to a breaking point. while i certainly think we're ready to tackle that if that's what they want to do. we're going to deal with honest amendments on substance that meet the test of the senate rules but there will

come a point when the american people and the people in the senate are going to say this isn't about substance but all about politics. let's make a final decision. up or down vote. do you want to change the problems we face in health care today? it's certainly a majority of democrats do. or do you want to stand by the health insurance companies and keep the problems we have going. i'm afraid that's where the republicans are. >> schieffer: just one more time i want to ask you, you think this legislation will be ready for the president to sign this week? >> i can't say what the parliamentary rulings will be on every provision. but i can tell you that we have a majority of the united states senate ready to vote for the reconciliation bill to move this forward for the president's signature. if there is some procedural problem we run into, we're going to work through it. we are determined to get this done. the republicans want us to quit and stop and don't try any more. we're not going to do that. we owe it to the american people to finish this job. >> schieffer: thank you so much, senator. i will be back in a moment with some final thoughts.

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america. growing stronger. every day. ♪ >> schieffer: washington has always been a one-story town. for the last few weeks, months really, the story has been health care reform. that's all we've been talking about around here which is probably one reason a rather important anniversary passed without much notice. march 19, ring a bell? probably not. but march 19 was the 7th anniversary of the iraq invasion which began our longest war. the heavy news cycle was not the only reason it went unnoticed. we remember the wars and events that had an impact on our daily lives. december 7 or 9/11. but in the age of the all volunteer military, few of us remember much about the war that had so little effect on our day-to-day lives especially a war where questions still exist over

whether it should have been fought at all. the iraq war was fought by one half of one percent of us. unless we were part of that small group or had a relative who was, we went about our lives as usual most of the time. no draft. no new taxes. no changes. not so for the small group who fought the war and their families. ask them about the sacrifice, the death toll of nearly 4400 americans and the thousands more who were wounded. now that it is finally winding down, thousands of americans are still there. and history will eventually decide if it was worth it all. while history decides let us remember that whatever history's verdict, the fate of those who died there or suffered life-altering injuries can never change. good war or bad, for them it is the same. the war may have had little impact on most of our lives. but we owe that small group of people. back in a moment.

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