north korea d the god particle when we continue.

additional funding provided by: captioning sponsored by rose communications from our studios in new york city, this is charlie rose. welcome to our program.

we begin with the death of kin jung il. he died by heart attack traveling on a train. closely watching out the political transition will ply playout in the nuclear arms sta. from washington jeff bader n and dave sanger of the "new york times" who s been following the story closely and pakistan and other places with nuclear weapons. i begin wit chris hill. tell me what are the questions

you are asking at this time about this death and this transition of power? >> >> well i must say a few monthsa biggest outer to dr try to get e north koreans back to the new clear talks. the us has taken the correct position that we need to see signser in serious. so as this transition under folds in the coming days and weeks wo won wonders whether the north score reans will be willing to make any kind of decision that suggests that they are more serious about nuclear talks so i wonder what the future of the thirdparty talks as kim the iii gets going. i don't think he has any stature he is hardly known in north korea. we have to wait to see how it unfolds. whether the military is runningment place or the people around him are running that place or whether he has a

opinionch his own. lot of questions ahead. tell us about the nuclearwed where they stand on the development and the missi capability. is no question they have nuclear westminster. they set off two nuclear tests one in 2006 and the other in 2001 after percent obama was inaugurated. a few months after that. the test the themselves were not successful but they have proved that they can do a nuclear explosion. they have not proven that they can make one small enough to fit on a war head and launch it as a missile. i think the north koreans know

like any other country does if they launch a nucar weapon what will the retaliation be. : anand the someone took it out. the somebody was the israelis. it's a signal tohe iranians a to what could happen doing it again syria was seizure and risked a lot less rebellion. and la year theres was a visit to north korea by a stamford professor and they showed him running a uranium enrichment plant. that is second to a bomb all of

the bomb we know are plutonium based. they warned that thin they were buildi a second pathway that they purchased from pakistan. in the end the intel intelligens right. they clearly have the beginnings eveof a signature signicant nucr possibility. >> charlie: what can you tellusg the dynamic of the political infighting that is taking place in north korea today? pgh. >> jeff: one problems withnortho

know what is going on. there it's not a problem that we americans have and south core ryan-- south koreans have. i think that as chris said, this young man is kind eve of like a blank slate. i don't know of any american that has melt him. -- met him. is to reason to believe he is held in hig highest high h hig . >> pgthey arethere is a group h ca about the population.

and is there to see mass starvation. there are a numberver possibilities an--numberof poss. kiml will be ru running the country. there will be an informal regency to su surround him and o guide him around to froorchgly n the show. -- froorchgly ru fran fran. the person withmen with the gren

influencgreat oaflt flinestinfluence was his brother-in-law. >> charlie: what should theunit? how does the united states respond? >> ie >> chris: : this i this is is a. we have to talk the nuclear talk. i think right now in china, between the chinese and the united states, i thi we are going through a bit of a diffult patch. i think. chinese would regard the demise of north korea as some kind of victory r the u.s. and defe for china. and so this kind of win-lose or

zero-some gamzero-sum game isine should adroas g dres dress wit . >> that is very important and w -- holds. >> north korea is doing this inw days. and having everyone cry or cue. >> we do need to be prepared foe that north korea won't come out of this will. it's possible that these rivalries will emerge and it is a possible that there wil will e problems. >> to the ec extent that we have humanitarian and if there was

lose nukes out there. as difficult as the u.s.-china relationship las been in th hase resent months and meirs years. >> charlie:. >> i i think china is inwardlyf. it would have them turn a way from a historic ally. because they wouldn't be all that amenable to the start of the course doesn't mean we shouldn't be pressing for this kind of depth to our security dialogue with it. >> david, what should theadmini? >> david: charlie, i thinkchris.

it would be wonder if i am if the united states aren't china could have a honest and private conversation in regards to what to do were the north korean collapse. ththe pentagon believes they goo secure the weans were an the wed see a conflict between the chinese and american forces. >> but the chinese so far aschrt engage 00 in that covering. one reasons is they don't want to acowledge the clapse will happen. the chinese want stablity on the north korean peninsula. they don't want them taking over the north or their allies on the boardeboardborder.

?mplet claarly. >> charlie: and youaccident w g over the border. some documents that we hadlh koreans were talng about what would happen if the north did clap? and the south korean view was that the chinese night be able to be bought off with some consignificant of getting iron ore oil fer nort oil out of nor. we don't know whether in fact

the chinese would set el for some condition that the south took hand of the territory of the north if there what a collapse. as chris said that is a zug that some how the u.s. and china will have to have. >> charlie: ever, you went tothd alt of us know how significant a coop railtding united states and children that relationship would be, not only in terms of career, but a whole range of other issues and even the european debt crisis sises. china that's a tion pac particin around could make a difference. >> thobjective was to try to ma. we put effort in working with the chinese and on global

economic rye coughry. climate change. with some significant results. north korea we got the chinese support strong security council action. the unit security council action in twowt20022009and thin the cht nervous. and they ga began to embrace noh koa more decisively. but late in 2010 after the provocation that we saw last year, the sinking of auto south korean ship, they warned the north koreans to cut it out they would not support these pro vanoc tif acts. pro

provocative acts. so the children niece don't have identical percen perspectives tn the korean issue but they are parallel in sick ways. signific. so we can work on it with them. the overall relationship i is a cooperative issue. we have been able to cooperate well with the chinese. the desirability of the dialogue of the chinese on what would happen in the event of a collapse in north korea? that is right,e tried with the chinese. that is a road that they are unprepared of going down and they don't warran want the koreo see thehave that discussion in e

short tirm. -- terrorism. term. the chinese may have a dialogue of how to introduce form. they think tea a decrepe i had state and think should follow their path. and perhaps now the chinese will be able to pittsburgh that argument a little strongly to make it a more viable state. >> charlie: which raises aquest. how do the north korean see the chinese? do they fear them or need them or what. >> normally the north korean'sda north cor korean. they are octobering the negligence snowing.

-- notion. when you look at the resent years you see a closer and closer economic relationship with china. to the ectoanltd that north korea ca can display any froat t all it tends to be as a wrul ref a china. zplrnlgwe don't want to be witha we want to work with the u.s. as well. as money as this say that the fact show that they are willing to get close to the chinese. the fact that the north koreans went ahead and shelled a sowmenh korean island and then sunk a south korean ship. and the chinese tried to split it down the middle and to call

on all sides to show restraint. this had the effect o of enflamg the public opinion in the state that is by any mesh measure. of what happens in the fumenter would be the success store state. i think maybe if not for us but maish with themselves the chiefn niece know how to do deeper thinking and how they would see things on the korean pence. pgh i think the creation of thes a positive development between president bush and jung single men. it created a motion of community

and a group of penal in that part of the world. they have not basketbal been abo address the multiform that the chinese were aicial to talk to the south coryants and the south koreans anted yach niece as a result of the six pearlt talks. the format has not really been the probably. i would see it as apartment of the solution i don't think the north cory yarch. i don't think they'll w worry we have to g rid of these nuance. >> charlie.har: all roadso thro.

i want to mention a fewminm. pgh it's been a change in the south core racorycore cory yafke in, just five years ago, gafn to reverse that and on reasons that the north koreans are much more dependant on zien that because they are no longer getting the trade and aid they got from south core rye yeah foon for most of the deck ailtd and the chiep that's had to fill that in but that meefnls the nia

breef interlude. that got the north korean's attention. jeff just said, the chiep chine have gotten more concerned since kim jung il had his first stroke in 2008 and he could die and there was instability. i think the biggest concern now is this the way the world developed there is a let's of insens tifer to give up their nuclear wements than ever before. if the north koreanss look look at whalookat what happened in n. the north koreans have too look at ts and say, "the lesson is

did he ever give up your last deterrent. pgh. >> i think it will be hardertha. harder when everwas doing this to get the north keans pgh zoo we know anything about what forces in may be thinking of a coupe at this time. >> well ceainly nobody i havetat has heard any sign or at least that theyave led on to me that the police have centeredden monthto support equipment ill jung. kim judge. the region option you heardy the most likely for a while. the queson is does the split come six months from now or a

year from now. glnkts maybe it ?efer comes at all. whenim ill. >> undied and kimumpism becamete military anything. there was a lot of discussion that the military would never silt still for his son. and over the time he condition stoll entertainmented his power. >> he didn't have a number ofyer had. the last words, jeff. >> yment jr. north korea is aa . if you talk to the leaders they think the ordinary north koreans have a better understanding or

days we are filtering into north korea. and maybe evything is not it should be. but it's, tea frankly hard to envision a sens area flow in the next few years br there is a crack up i that lead to somethig i think tea more likely that instability will lead to a strengthening of the position of the security force. very strong and very controlling. there was a few different sens scenarios that could play out and no one is certain. kim jung il could consolidate power in the news few yrs and we could see cornty newty with

the. statement. -- state. the chinese could lean on them and successfully persuade is coming sort of econoc reform. i would say a lower likelihood because the leadership understands the opening coul coe a threat rm there could be a real crack up. that is a real risk and that may attempt the south koreans to moe in and how the chiefn niece would react to the forces moving north.

>> charlie zm. zm ?mplet..: are. >> i think the tip didn't justsf united states forces these t gentlemen did not work well together. pgh hush is the sue any st. ui o the clerktive presidency. >> the the prime minister hasthe

government structures. and so hush me has tomorrow come after maul key on a number of occasions and they're quite prepared to go after him. now i'm not prepared, i'm not in a position as to speak to the route of security guards by butt it's a very serious charge indeed. most people think of kurds at people that warrant out of that state. i i this i think people are turning to the kurtd to city if they can mend this rift between the uni's hush me and the prime minister maul key. i think anyone who has spent a day in brock and realized it's a place where you have is too birk el your assessment i would think

that they could see this as a function of the political troops. and we also oht to be could go thacould gocognizant of the fact es not put a way thousands of problems and i think they will go on for a limb longerment is there. >> charliedoes it speak as towhn or what. >> >> the sunni leader was a goodt. glnldz a that is a positive side of going in. i don't think that people should connect it in going in and toppling the sunni government. >> we can mend the rif betweent.

the person's political identity i don't think the shia an are prared to have another stun any led government. although mr.alou iis a shi'a himself he is representing a political party which presents it's sever aitself as a nationa. >> they regard it as a sunnibast going to permit that. i'm not sure that it's something that we showment expect some american trooms to stoll you have fo--american troops.

>> pgh the iranians are tryingta sunni split in iraq to solidify their relation had with shi'a and to strengthen their own position there. i think there is limit on how far they can go in that respect. whether you are a sh shi'a or sn any in rierk and you are referring to the iranians as the historic person then then. zplrnlgt i don't think the one should expect the she. in iraq to bow down and to . the ian yans are clearly trying to take advantage of it. you know the iranians had been

exercising influence in lebanon and had he ebola and they are seeking to ex-employed she right measurements. it's parlt of her prodder eye ran yan vault strategy t identiy them safety as the leadish of. >> charlicharlie.har: . >> charlie i know you are notan. >> but you talk to people whoar. >> broadway to fight back toapp. i think the automobile station since it's come ins as put anti-missile batteries throughout the