>> schieffer: today on "face the nation," we knew you real political junkies would be up to join us this morning. we're watching what you're watching. >> listen. america... america is watching iowa. >> schieffer: and iowans are watching ads, negative ads. >> i made a mistake. i've made mistakes at times. >> serial hypocrites and flip floppers. >> newt gingrich's baggage. he has more baggage than the airline. >> schieffer: nearly half of all the negative ads have been dumped on newt gingrich. remember when he was leading the polls? not anymore. >> we're learning a lot about what our opponents will do. they are nastier and more dishonest than i expected. >> schieffer: the new frontrunner is the old frontrunner in the national polls: mitt romney.

he's sounding more and more like a nominee. >> we will win iowa and take back the white house with the support of this great state. >> schieffer: in the new des moines register poll ron paul is in the margin of error for first and rick santorum is also moving up. >> seven days ago i was being asked the question, are you thinking about quitting? >> schieffer: but can any of them beat barack obama? we'll hear from ron paul's son, senator rand paul. gingrich supporter and former congressman jc watts and romney surrogate and former missouri senator jim talent. then we'll get analysis from the legendary iowa political reporter david yenson, politico's mike allen and our own norah o'donnell and john dickerson. plus all the candidates' new year's resolutions. this is "face the nation." captioning sponsored by cbs

from cbs news in washington, "face the nation" with bob schieffer. >> schieffer: good morning again. happy new year. well, the des moines register is out today with a new poll as we're just hours away now from the iowa caucuses in the top spot mitt romney is at 24% followed closely behind by congressman ron paul at 22%. and now former senator rick santorum at 15%. he is closing fast. rounding out the rest of the field, newt gingrich, rick perry, michele bachmann and john huntsman. this morning we are joined by supporters from three of the top candidates: senator rand paul, the son of ron paul, in bowling green kentucky. romney supporter and former congressman j.c. watts who is the surrogate for newt gingrich. he's in oklahoma city. senator paul, your dad obviously has a shot at winning iowa now.

but the pollsters out there seem to think that rick santorum has really caught the momentum. he's been closing fast here in the last two days. they say if you measure just the last two days he's actually in second place. what do you think happened? i thought your dad was the darling of the evangelical christian vote which is such a big vote out there and a lot of conservatives. what's happening? >> well, i think if you look at it, we've had several frontrunners. we've had several people surge to the top. i think this is the best time to be surging to the top. ron paul has surged probably as much as anyone in the last two or three weeks and has been the frontrunner or near being the frontrunner in iowa. he's closing the gap in new hampshire. so i think he's surging at precisely the right time. >> schieffer: well if rick santorum dops wind up either winning out there or running ahead of your dad, will he be the sort of anybody but romney candidate going into new hampshire? >> i think he has a lot of

things to overcome. i mean, he was in his last election defeated by over 20 points. he was a big supporter of arlen specter against pat tomby. he's really been a big government type of moderate. a lot of people don't know that because he hasn't surged to the top yet so he hasn't had much scrutiny. when he has the scrutiny, i think he's going to have some of the same problems that some of the other fair-weather conservatives have had. >> schieffer: let me ask you this. i mean, your father is a very polite and decent man. he's very nice to deal with. everybody seems to like him. but i don't know a single impartial observer who thinks that he could wind up getting the nomination, let alone winning in a general election. does he think he could win? >> you know, the interesting thing is when people say that, when you actually look at the numbers and the polls who is scoring the best with independents and democrats among republicans? ron paul is the only one

getting significant independent vote, and democrat vote in every... and every year i watch the elections and people you need independent vote to win the election. you can't win with just republicans. so i actually see ron paul as the run... one republican who could collect a lot of people who don't vote normally and really energize the party. look at the crowds. he says his crowds are growing by the hundreds. and then you interview someone like santorum who has got five people and they're telling him to be quiet they're watching a football game. i mean, ron paul is having these big huge crowds in iowa and really exciting a lot of young people and new people. i think there is a lot of momentum. i think he could win by bringing in the independents. >> schieffer: you would have to concede he is far beyond the mainstream in the republican party. is he even a republican or is he a libertarian? >> i would say he's different in the sense that he believes with foreign policy we should only go to war if congress declares war. and because he believes that way, he has a reluctance to go

to war but i think there are a lot of americans who are tired after ten years, we lost 5,000 soldiers or nearly 5,000 soldiers in iraq. the rest of the republican field is beating the drum and jumping up and down and saying, oh, no, i'll bomb iran first. beginning a new war should be something that is done very reluctantly in consultation with congress. i don't think we want people who are eager to go to war. i think many republicans also understand that. that's why his crowds are growing but also you're seeing democrats and independents want someone who is wise, who is not reckless, someone who will control our nuclear weapons should not be someone who is trigger happy and wants to start a war every moment. >> schieffer: let me talk to j.c. watts because i have to state this, you are one of the few people, congressman watts, who served with newt gingrich when he was in the congress who have been out campaigning for him. i want to ask you about some of what rand paul just said. but why is that?

why are we seeing so few who knew newt gingrich when he was in the congress out working for him right now? >> well, bob, you would have to ask them. but i can tell you why i'm supporting newt gingrich. because i think newt gingrich has a proven track record of changing washington and getting results. all the things we're talking about on a national level today-- balanced budgets, tax relief, paying down our national debt, entitlement reform-- when newt was speecher, he did those things. we had balanced budgets. the only time we've had balanced budgets in my lifetime. and i'm 54. we had entitlement reform with welfare. we paid our $450 billion toward our national debt. and i believe... i am one of the people that believe that newt gingrich creates, i think, the kind of republican party that i want. he creates a republican party. he's looking to create a

republican party not that looks like j.c. watts annuity gingrich but one that looks like heaven. we'll have red, yellow, brown, black and white in heaven. i don't see that in mitt romney or ron paul or the other canned dates... candidates that i paid close attention to snb why do you think that his campaign now seems to have cratered after, i mean, he suddenly zoomed to the top. he was the frontrunner out there in iowa. now he's dropped 15 or 20 points and he's down there running fourth. in the second tier. what happened? >> well, bob, you said it at the outset. you've had almost 50% of the negative ads in iowa run against newt gingrich. almost 9, 10 million dollars. but the fact that he even registered... that he still registers considering the negative ads that he's had run against him i think shows his stability, shows his strength. i think the polls... i think

you'll see that it's still pretty fluid. i'd say newt... i've seen polls just in the last 48 to 72 hours that has him either tied for first or fourth. so it's still pretty fluid. and no one knows what's going to happen on tuesday. as the old saying goes, we'll get the real polls next tuesday night. >> schieffer: i would just have to say i haven't seen that one that shows him tied for first. but you may be right. >> i saw one that had him at 17% with romney, paul and gingrich all three at about 17%. >> schieffer: let me go to senator talent. let's talk about these ads. governor romney gets up and says he's against these super pacs. he said we ought to do away with them, the ones running all these ads and yet there's a super pac run by his friends. obviously he doesn't have anything... he says, "i obviously don't have anything to do with it because it's against the law." but it's all his people that are running. they're running these vicious

ads. if he wants to get rid of these things why doesn't he just tell his friends to stop the ones that they're running now? that would be a good example. on how to clean this up. >> well, the governor believes the campaign believes in contrast. we have contrast. we have governor romney's record. this is a trusted leader with vast experience in the private sector who knows how to turn around enterprises. >> schieffer: senator, may i just interrupt. we kind of make it a practice here that we ask people to answer the questions that we ask them. could you address the question that i just asked you. >> i mean, look, the governor has said that he doesn't support those pac ads or he doesn't support the idea of the pacs but he does support the idea of contrasting. people are going to do what they're going to do. these ads have been fair contrasts of the record of the various candidates. we have governor romney's record, trusted, strong leader with experience in the private

sector. the guy who can beat barack obama. that's what the polls show. that's the logic of his candidacy. it's what he's running on. >> schieffer: well, senator, congressman watts, what would you say in response to that? do you think that governor romney could stop those ads if he wanted to? >>. >>al with, bob, he could. super pacs are what they are. i'm not going to sit here and try to say that it's the gingrich campaign or the santorum campaign or the paul... or any other candidate had a super pac if they wouldn't be doing the same thing. i think that's the reality that we're dealing with in campaigns these days. people buy into negative ads. we see what has happened to newt gingrich, michele bachmann, rick perry. anybody that has been out front that has been leading the pack, we've seen the romney folks go after them pretty good.

it is what it is. but again i think my candidate is still standing. and the fact that he still registers, he's still getting votes with 50% of the negative ads being run against him. i think it speaks well of the stability of newt gingrich. >> schieffer: senator talent, let me ask.... >> bob, if i could say, look, governor romney has had a strong consistent support across all segments of the party. really at all times in this campaign. it is because of the logic of his candidacy and his record. that's what's driving these poll numbers in iowa. that's what's driving not just the des moines register poll but the des moines register endorsement which assesses the logic of a candidacy that said this is a guy that can beat obama and turn around the federal government. that's the underlying rational for the race. >> schieffer: it's an interesting thing and you're right. he has stayed between 20 and 25%. but that means 75% don't particularly like him. why do you think that is why

is there such a large segment of the republican party that simply does not seem to like mitt romney? what's wrong with him? >> i think... i agree with what j.c.said before. the race is fluid. there are a lot of people who are undecided. they park in one place or another place. again see i would turn that around, bob. i think this is the candidate in a very heavily fractionalized field who has had the strong support all across the party campaigning in a number of different states. where he's campaigned the most, he's the strongest which is in new hampshire. when people find out more about him, then they decide that they like him. again, this is the candidate that can beat obama, turn around the federal government. that's the reason he's running so well. >> schieffer: all right. we'll find out on caucus night who finally winds up ahead. we'll be back in jachlt. thanks to both of you all. as andy moon emit have asked, did you ever wonder what the candidates new year's resolutions are?

>> can i think about this for a second? >> this coming year i will endeavor to say thank you more often, appreciation is a... an underappreciated quality. >> i resolve to pray more often for our young men and women who are in our combat theaters, that they'll come home safe. >> a little more love and compassion. i just hope that this country can show greater compassion toward families who have lost a loved one in the theater of combat. >> i haven't thought about that yet. i suspect you might guess. >> make sure that when people come to hear me that i deliver a proper message and do a better job each time i do it. >> your new year's resolution? >> do you have one? >> to work very, very hard and win the iowa caucus and then go to the new hampshire primary and win the south carolina primary and go and win the florida primary.

my resolution is to win primaries next year. some folks call me a rock star, some call me the mayor... and i love it. and, i make everybody happy. i keep my business insurance with the hartford because... they came through for me once, and i know they've got my back. for whatever challenges come your way... the hartford is here to back you up. helping you move ahead... with confidence. meet some of our small business customers at: thehartford.com/business i don't think about the unknown... i just rock n' roll. premier of the packed bag. you know organization is key... and so is having a trusted assistant. and you...rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle...and go. you can even take a full-size or above and still pay the mid-size price. here we are... [ male announcer ] and there you go, business pro.

there you go. go national. go like a pro. welcome back to face the nation. chief white house correspondent norah o'donnell is here with me in washington. out in des moines in the law library at the iowa state capital political director john dickerson who is up early joined by the legendary political reporter david yepson so many years at the des moines register and politico's chief white house correspondent mike allen. how many of these caucuses have you actually written about and covered? >> well, all of them since 1976. more than i sometimes care to remember. >> schieffer: i was right there with you. i haven't seen, in all those years, any of them quite like this one. we've had some weird ones down through the years. what about this one, we're seeing? it just seems every week somebody else is at the top

and somebody goes right straight to the bottom. >> i think one of the big differences-- and you've already mentioned it in the show-- is the citizens united decision and all this attack media that is sloshing around. it is really incredible. it's had an impact. it explains a lot of this ebb and flow of the race. the candidate jumps out ahead and then he's hit or she's hit by a wave of this attack television. rick santorum is lucky because his surge has started and it may not be time here at the end for a wave of attack media to hit him. >> bob, another. >> schieffer: go ahead, mike. >> another big difference is the christian conservatives didn't pick one candidate. there's not the coalition that made mike huckabee the winner in 2008. if all of them had gotten behind rick santorum if he had the home schoolers and others, he would probably be the favorite. now he's scrambling it's him and romney neck and neck. >> schieffer: david brought up one thing, mike.

i want to ask you about it. he talked about these attack ads. the one person that the romney campaign which has all the money out there and is spending most of the money, they had not attacked rick santorum. some people say that may be by design. they would really like to see him eye merge as the "anybody but romney" candidate. >> the romney campaign feels he does not have the organization to go as long as they do. they feel their energy and crowds are going to make them the winner. even if santorum wins, that's still going to give romney the energy he needs to go on. now they're trying to just be measured to not get cocky at this point. years of work now are for the romney campaign. >> schieffer: bring us up to date on the horse race. we're not ashamed to say we're into the horse race, unlike some people. what's happening here? all of a sudden it's this late moment. it looks like santorum is... what's that all about? i hear the registered people

saying if they just took the last two days that santorum would be right at the top of the heap the way he's going. >> they average out the number of days they've been calling around the state. on tuesday santorum had 10%. by friday he had 22%. he was surging right at the end of the poll there. a lot of people think that surge is continuing for him. another factor here that you talked about is that everybody gets a surge in this race. but mitt romney has a surge protector. he's at 24 now. he was at about, 23 in june. he has not surged. a lot of what's happening here is two things for santorum. one, he's worked the state harder than anybody else. done it the old-fashioned way. but also there is this group of people who are looking for an alternative to mitt romney. right now they've landed on rick santorum. the question is, is se like mike huckabee? there are a whole new bunch of people that are coming to join rick santorum. doesn't seem to be the evidence of that in the polls. the number of evangelicals is down since last time. he may have a surge at the end

but he's not creating a whole new wave of santorum voters. >> bob, one thing that is worth elaborating on about that point that john just made about evangelicals. the turnout in the polling from evangelicals is about half of what it was in the turnout of '08. think about that. 60% of the republican caucus goers in 2008 described themselves as born again or evangelical. this time it's about 30%. why is that? well, there may be a polling error. also the possibility that evangelicals have been divided. their leadership has been divided. in addition, we may be putting too much attention on social conservatives. they're not going to be as big a deal this time as they were in 2008. it's a wild card. we'll have to see on caucus night. >> schieffer: let me go to norah o'donnell here because, you know, for all the republican activity, for all the talk about ground games and all that, the candidate who has the most offices out there, the candidate who is spending the most money out there, that's the most

organized out there, is right now on vacation out in hawaii. what is the white house up to right now? >> no doubt that the spotlight is focused on iowa and the republicans, but i think that the obama 2012 campaign is trying to make the point that they have more campaign offices. they have made more voter to voter contact. they have an unprecedented ground game. the president is actually going to address democrats who are having a caucus too on tuesday night from videoconference. the reason that matters, bob, is iowa is a battle ground state. in the general election this ultimately will be about the general election. iowa is a state that went for gore. it then went for bush. i then went for obama. it's a battle ground state. i think the obama team is trying to make the case that while the republicans so busy duking it out, the obama team has actually set up an unprecedented campaign operation not just in an iowa but across the entire country. whoever is the republican that comes out of this is going to have to play catch-up to equal

what obama has done in terms of a ground game. >> schieffer: mike allen, give us a little road map of where we go from here. who drops out after iowa? >> very telling that rick perry the texas governor is not going to new hampshire, the next contest. he's jumping ahead. on wednesday he's flying to south carolina. it looks like he may try to make his last stand there. michele bachmann, amazingly, has gone from first four-and-a-half months ago to last in this register poll. she's going to also have a lot of pressure to drop out. santorum doesn't have the organization but just picking up on nora's point about the obama campaign, the obama campaign loves the santorum surge for two reasons: one, it bolsters their idea that mitt romney is having to struggle for this. in a weak field he's trying to keep his head ahead water. with santorum surging he'll be pushed to little bit to the

right to close the deal in this very exciting caucus. we'll set a record on tuesday night. 119,000 people in 2008, republicans coming out. they said there could be as many as 140,000 this time because the excitement of all these candidates and because it's nice weather. we came here without overcoats. >> to add to that, one area where they think santorum has moved mitt romney to the right is yesterday on the campaign trail. mitt romney said he would veto the dream act. the dream act would allow children of illegal immigrants to get citizenship if they graduate from high school. that's something mike huckabee supported the dream kakt. hispanics will be a huge force in the 2012 general election campaign. and mitt romney yesterday said he would veto that proposal. that is something that is going to come up in a general election match that will be a big deal in terms of courting the hispanic vote. >> schieffer: david, does iowa really matter? i know you speak as an iowan but it's not a great predictor especially on the republican side of who gets the

nomination. what should we take away from iowa, whoever wins? >> well i think you have... iowa is first. that's why it's important. i think you watch in terms of how the race unfolds, mitt romney, this is a lot like the 1980s caucus, bob. you'll remember that. george herbert walker bush an unknown ambassador a moderate candidate in the race, won that caucus because the conservative vote was all chopped up. one of the things to watch coming out of iowa is can the conservatives coalesce around one candidate? rick perry in south carolina, rick santorum? who will that be? going forward to be the alternative to romney? that's what i would look for coming out of iowa. >> schieffer: in 1980, ronald reagan wins the fom nation. then you shift to 1988. of all people pat robertson finishes ahead of george bush in iowa that year. and then george bush goes on to win. i agree with you. it's important because it's first.

we find out, we see them all lay it out. thanks to all of you. we'll see you all out there. i'll be out there this afternoon. back in a moment with some final thoughts. ♪ [ male announcer ] how could switchgrass in argentina, change engineering in dubai, aluminum production in south africa, and the aerospace industry in the u.s.? at t. rowe price, we understand the connections of a complex, global economy.

it's just one reason over 75% of our mutual funds beat their 10-year lipper average. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. request a prospectus or summary prospectus with investment information, risks, fees and expenses to read and consider carefully before investing. some folks call me a rock star, some call me the mayor... and i love it. and, i make everybody happy. i keep my business insurance with the hartford because... they came through for me once, and i know they've got my back. for whatever challenges come your way... the hartford is here to back you up. helping you move ahead... with confidence. meet some of our small business customers at: thehartford.com/business i don't think about the unknown... i just rock n' roll. finaly today i like to start the new year on a happy note so i always turn first to the obituary page. nothing quite so pleasant as being unable to find your name there and confirming you're

beginning another year on the right side of the dirt. besides, the obits are about people and the occasional animal who have done good things like the one about the chimp in the tars and movies back in the '30s. debbie cobb lives where cheat a lives out the last year told the "new york times" that the old fellow was 80 years old. the trouble is, ape experts say they've never heard of an ape living that long so they are dubious that he was who he said he was. of course he never said anything so we have to take mrs. cobb's word for it. but she does sound truthful. however, the actress mia pharaoh whose mother marino sullivan was in the movies for cheat a said her mom didn't care for cheat a and that's understandable because he was always biting her. if this was the real one, he must have mellowed with age.

the woman at the sanctuary said he was compassion. loved finger painting, watching football on tv and found christian music relaxing. still we may never know for sure. all we have are pictures, and as film archivist eve gordon told the times basically all chimps look like george burns. i love that. we'll see you tomorrow from des moines where norah o'donnell and i will be hosting the early show. and i'll see you next sunday from new hampshire. happy new year, everybody. captioning sponsored by cbs captioned by media access group at wgbh access.wgbh.org ,,,,,,