good morning. and welcome to "this week." >> let's get this done. >> it's all over but the counting. >> i will be voting yes for the bill. >> i cannot, at this point in time, honestly give you a straight yes or no answer. >> let's kill the bill. >> will the democrats have the votes? >> there's no way they can pass this bill. >> we believe we have the votes. >> the latest from the chair of the democratic caucus, john larsen, and house republican whip, eric cantor. and the presidents' men. david plouffe, the whan who ran obama's campaign, and karl rove, the architect behind bush's campaigns. together for the first time to debate health care reform and the midterm elections.

plouffe and rove, a "this week" exclusive. then, our powerhouse "roundtable," two senate leaders. democrat tom daschle and trent lott join gorge will and sam donaldson on all the week's politics. and as always, "the sunday funny." >> tiger woods, coming back to golf. the masters in april. he wants another green jacket. he left the other in a las vegas hotel room. >> announcer: live, from the newseum on pennsylvania avenue. good morning. one of the most far-reaching bills in modern american history hangs in the balance this morning. and a handful of wavering democrats will decide whether to vote for health care reform or let the president's signature issue die on the house floor. we're joined this morning by two members of congress keeping track of the vote count.

john larsen, the chairman of the democratic caucus. and, of course, eric cantor, the republican whip. so, chairman larson, where are the votes? >> we have the votes. we will make history. lyndon johnson passed medicare. and today, barack obama will pass health care reform. demonstrating whose side we're on. >> let me pin you down. >> go ahead. >> you have the votes now? >> we have the votes now. >> you have 216 commitments now? >> yes. >> do you believe him? >> well, jonathan, let me tell you something, the american people don't want this to pass. the republicans don't want this to pass. there will be no republican votes for this bill. and frankly, i think if it does pass, it's because they're using everything in their political power. and even some things they

shouldn't have in their political power, to cut political deals. >> like what? >> to deliver the votes. >> certainly, you have seen the kind of political kickback deals that have occurred. you have states like louisiana that are going to receive $300 million more for their health care than any other state. and yet, if you look at sort of the comparison for this louisiana purchase, versus what thomas jefferson paid for louisiana and do the analysis, this louisiana purchase costs more than that original one-fifth of the land mass of this country. those are the kind of political kickbacks that have facilitated this bill. and the american people are just tired of it. and i -- >> the only political kickbacks that are coming are to people like natoma canfield, who became the poster for the american people today. what has happened to people being denied because of pre-existing conditions, having

policies rescinded and on a gurney in the hospital. we had an e-mail as he was speaking, about a staff every who was just diagnosed with cancer, who will lose her coverage after he leaves congress. this is what's driving people in this country. >> there has been talk about the deals. nebraska has come out or will come out with a reconciliation bill. louisiana's still in there. >> connecticut. >> there's a new one for a north dakota bank. why is that? >> what the american people want to see is an up-or-down vote. after a year of debating this issue, after several decades of debating this issue, it comes down to whose side are you on? are you siding with the insurance industry? or are you siding on behalf of the people who have been waiting decades for this passage. >> that is a false choice. >> that's the real choice. >> the people of this country don't like this bill. there's a reason why it's taken so long. there's a reason why all this

arm-twisting is going on. and at the end of the day, if this thing does pass, the american people are going to be outraged. they are scared about this bill. >> of course, president obama came and addressed your caucus yesterday. let's listen to what he had to say. >> and this is one of those moments. we are not bound to win. but we are bound to be true. we are not bound to succeed. but we are bound to let whatever light we have shine. >> chairman larson, how many democratic house members are going to lose their seats as the result of this bill? >> well, every time you have a midterm election, you risk the chance of losing members. but it isn't about how many members are going to lose their seat. what the president said is right. it's about this moment. it's about the truth. it's every reason why you were elected to come and serve in congress. you have 47 million americans that don't have insurance. 14,000 dying a day.

excuse me. losing their insurance a day. thousands that are dying throughout this country because of lack of health care. >> some will lose their seats, though, as a result of this vote, right? >> that's quite possible. >> let me ask you about the way your leader, the republican leader, talked about this vote just yesterday. >> we're about 24 hours from armageddon. >> you used the word armageddon. what did you mean by that? >> this health care bill will ruin our country. it's time to stop it. >> okay. congressman cantor, come on. is this bill going to ruin our country if it passes? >> jonathan, what's going on from my perspective, is the american people are full of fear about this bill. they see this bill will take medicare benefits from seniors. that's a scary thought. >> but is this going to ruin our country? >> jonathan, it is about the fear. there is a better way. that's what's going on. >> but i'm asking a specific question. we heard from the republican leader in the house say this is

armageddon. it's going to ruin the country. we have the vote tonight. >> this is a bad bill. the people are frightened. they're frightened that their losing their jobs right now. and here, we're going to tax small businesses to the tune of $2,000 per job. >> does that ruin the country? >> you have folks -- you have families thinking, how are we going to pay for the trillion-dollar debt that is going to occur from this bill alone? and how are our children going to pay for it? >> what it is, jonathan, it is about trying to attack the american ideal. that's what's going on with this bill. people are beginning to think they won't have the life that they've had for their children. that's what's going on. and i think that's what the point the leader was going to say. >> privatize social security. i respect the fact they want to end. >> come on. >> that's true. here's the thing. here's the thing. everybody ought to ratchet back just a little bit. and when you have two members of

congress, two respected members of the congressional black caucus spat on and hurled epithets that were awful. >> jonathan, nobody condones that at all. there were 30,000 people here in washington yesterday. and there were some very awful things said. but come on. nobody condones that kind of stuff. >> is it time to ratchet back some? ruining the country and armageddon? >> it's time to listen to the american people. that's the stunning thing about this. john said there will be some members who will lose their seat. this is a legacy vote. there's no question about it. it's a legacy vote. >> on that note of agreement, we're out of time. we'll be watching. you told us, you already have the votes. we'll be watching to see if you're right. congressman cantor, congressman larson, thank you for joining us on "this week." >> happy to be here. earlier in a speech in northern virginia, the president raised a lot of the very questions that we will be asking plouffe and rove.

>> what they want to ask is the politics of the vote. what's this going to mean in november? what will it mean for obama? will his presidency be crippled? or will he be the comeback kid? it's just like "sportscenter." you know? it's considered a sport. and who's up and who's down? and everybody's keeping score. you have the teams going at it. it's rock 'em sock 'em roberts. >> joining me now, david plouffe, the president's campaign manager, who the president brought back to plan strategy for democrats. he's also the author of "audacity to win." and in indianapolis, karl rove, the architect for president bush's successful campaigns for president. and we have your book, as well, karl. david, listening to some of the analysis today, you would think we were in the last six hours of the obama presidency as we know it, or the beginning of the great obama comeback. what are the stakes here today?

>> first of all, we ought to focus on not the political stakes but the stakes of the country. we're not going to succeed as a country economically if we don't do health care reform. we're going to help grow jobs. help save families and businesses money. end the doughnut hole that seniors have to pay for prescriptions. but the politics of this, by the way, we're going to pass this. we're in much better shape as a democratic party. we're going to talk about not just what we're for, but what the republicans are voting again. they're siding with the insurance companies. siding with the insurance companies over saving seniors money. this isn't just about us being a pinata in the election. elections are about choices. they're voting against an enormous tax cut in health care for millions of americans and small businesses. that's what they're opposing here. >> if you lose this vote, do you lose the house? >> listen, we're 30 weeks away. i have been very clear about this.

we're going to be much better positioned politically. that's secondary to what's right for the country, if we pass this. by the way, we had 15 new voters vote in the 2008 election. okay? these are people who were cynical their vote really mattered. if we don't pass health care, i think that sends a very depressing message. but it will be a powerful message. the vote matters. and it will make a big difference in politics. >> karl, the president spoke about you when he went to talk to the democrats yesterday. this is what he had to say. >> i noticed that there's been a lot of friendly advice offered all across town. mitch mcconnell, john boehner, karl rove. now, it could be that they are suddenly having a change of heart. and they are deeply concerned about their democratic friends. >> now, karl, do you seriously believe the democrats are better off if this does not pass? >> look, i think the country is better off if this thing doesn't pass. this thing is $2.4 trillion for the first ten years of its

operation. this thing has ten years worth of tax increases. $569 billion in tax increases, including $210 billion in a new payroll tax and a new 3.8% surtax on investments that's going to make us less competitive. medicare cuts to pay for, four complete years of the operation of this program. the subsidies don't begin until year four. and not fully operational until year ten. if you look at the first ten years of the operation of this thing, it's $2.4 trillion. and this is paid for by bernie madoff-style accounting, where they double-count money and ignore costs. they claim debt reduction. but it's either between $480 billion in deficits added to the red ink, if you look at what they double-count. and $720 billion if you count what they ignore in here. these people are double-counting $53 billion worth of social security revenue twice. once for social security. once to pay for this program.

$70 billion for a new long-term care premium. they count it for the premium program and for paying for this program. they count $500 million of medicare cuts twice. they ignore $208 million in fixes they put off to the side and said we'll pay for that later. and $30 million in medicaid fixes. this is not $130 million in the black. it's either $480 billion, if you look at what they double-count. or $720 billion in deficit in the first ten years, if you take what they ignore. >> so, david -- >> this is a gigantic disaster. >> bernie madoff accounting? a gigantic disaster? >> listen, karl and the republicans would be familiar with that, since under their leadership, they took us from big budget surpluses at the beginning of the last decade, to a $1.3 trillion deficit for not paying for things like the prescription drug plan, two wars, tax cuts. the congressional budget office is very clear. over the next two decades, this is going to cut the deficit by

over $1 trillion. >> it only cuts the deficit if you double-count. as you double-count $53 billion worth of social security payroll taxes twice. if you double-count $500 billion in medicare cuts twice. once for reducing the cost of the $38 trillion unfunded liability in medicare. and at the same time, for the current expenditures in this program. and if you double-count $72 trillion in premium payments. you have run up more deficit before this bill in the first 20 months and 11 days of your term in office, than was done in the entire bush years. your plan is to take the deficits which were 2% under george w. bush, to 5.1% in the next ten years over barack obama. don't be lecturing us with what you're doing with the spending that started last year with the failed stimulus bill. and continued with your budget increases. you have increased the spending budget of the united states 25%, starting in the middle of the

last fiscal year. this is $2.4 trillion in cost for its first ten years. the country will not afford it. and you will bankrupt the country if it passes. >> i think karl's against the bill. there is interesting accounting here. the medicare dock fix is not in here. that's a couple million dollars. isn't it hard, as a political factor, for people to believe that a big, new health care program is actually going to cut the deficit? >> first of all, karl and the republicans have zero credibility, about as much credibility as the country of greece does. >> this is from the cbo. for god sake, will you stop throwing under epithets and deal with the facts. what about leaving out $208 billion for medicare dock fix. you have two years worth of a dock fix. you're going to cut the reimbursement and not pay it for

the balance of this program? >> let's put the fanciful chart away. >> that is not a fanciful chart. deal with the charts. >> every -- >> what about double-counting. >> karl, let's give a chance to answer. >> i'm trying. the cbo, major economists who have looked at this health care reform. very clear in this decade, is going to lower the deficit. and in the next decade, over $1 trillion. what the american people are focused on, are the health care costs. premiums skyrocketing. we saw insurers raising rates on individuals. small businesses, being bankrupted. not being able to provide care. it's devastating our federal budget situation. we're not going to solve these problems unless we have meaningful health insurance reform. that's what we're going to do. the republican party, if they want to run in this election and the elections of this next decade, against reducing the

deficit by over $1 trillion, against the insurance company reforms, against saving money. we're happy to have that debate. >> within two months, the democrat congress is going to be forced to deal with the dock fix. they're going to bring up a medicare docks fix, that will be $208 million according to a cbo analysis issued two days ago. >> okay. >> we'll see very soon how much they're committed to fiscal discipline when they have a dock fix that adds $208 billion to the deficit. i like that david never dealt with the issue of double-counting. we'll see if they pass this bill. i hope they don't. i pray they don't. it will be an economic disaster for the country if they do. >> let's look at the political pressure of these wavering democrats. let's face it. this is all about convincing democrats. you won't get a single republican vote. but you have one of your strongest union allies, sciu, running this ad against those who are voting no. >> by voting for health care reform, we will reduce health

care costs and stop insurance companies by getting rich by denying coverage and hiking premiums. call congressman arcuri. tell him to stand up for us. >> he is a democrat who says he's going to vote no. isn't it kamikaze for your allies to go out and targeting democrats who will face tough races in the midterms? >> people feel strongly about this issue. and we're going to have to do this alone as a democratic party. but it's our moment to lead. i think in the short-term and in the long-term, this is going to be seen, most importantly for the country. politics are about comparisons. and so, i think that we're going to -- listen. for a variety of reasons. we have a tough economy. we've run a lot of races. we have a lot to defend. we're going to have a tough election. i think our outcome in 2010 can be better than the pundits think. >> would you ask your union allies to back off and not to target, these are the most

vulnerable democrats in the house right now. you have threats to rescind endorsements. is it time for the unions to back off? >> we're trying to get the votes to pass health insurance reform. we're not there yet. we have the vote to take place. but looks like we're getting very close. i think once the vote's over, obviously, we're going to go out and help democrats win elections. i think we'll have a -- >> are you going to help those who voted no win re-election? >> of course. they have to make their own case to the constituents and volunteers in the district. >> you'll be going up against the unions in some of the races? >> i think it's going to depend race-by-race. a lot of people who don't vote for health care -- we're getting a majority of the democratic caucus in the house and the senate, for health insurance reform, as we did for the energy recovery act. this is a big moment in our country. economic calamity. we have long-term problems like health care and energy that will determine our future. the republican party, for the

most part, is not lifting an oar to help row. >> that is complete bunk. republicans have offered a positive alternative in health care. and you didn't bother to have one meeting between march 5th 2009, to find out how the white house could involve republicans in the bill. don't give us that bunk. that's a false argument offered by the white house. you know what? the way you have sold this bill to democrats, by threatening them. you cannot tell me that the white house didn't sanction some of the groups like moveon.org and others to make threats against democrats. we know the white house sent unsolicited e-mails to federal employees asking them to contact legislators by this bill. i think it's a violation of the anti-lobbying statutes. and that's the kind of techniques that you've been using on this bill. threats, hard-ball politics. if need be, withholding the support of the president of the united states from democrats. you said earlier this week, the

white house did, that the president would be campaigning actively and raising money for democrats who voted for the bill. that is a thinly-described bribe. >> this is just outrageous. no. >> it's in the newspapers. the white house political office leaked it to the press, saying the white house policy will provide the president to go campaign for those -- >> we'll solve it right now. the president will be campaigning -- >> that's a bribe. >> the president will be campaigning for democrats who vote no? >> i'm sure he will helping people the who vote yes on this, or no on this. and voted yes on the recovery act. the economy's growing. police officers, teachers, still working under this. >> government jobs. you promised -- >> david? >> you promised -- >> karl? let's get him to respond. >> you want to talk about the fall elections. we're going to have a great debate. it will be about health care reform. that's a debate we're positioned

to win. it's also going to be about -- people have a clear memory about what it was like under republican leadership. the policies that created huge deficits that devastated the middle class. you have the leader of the house republicans -- >> let him finish. karl? karl? >> you can -- >> karl? >> david? >> the leader of the house republicans, who would be the speaker if they won, has been shaking down wall street, saying we're the guys trying to protect you. protect your pay. this is important. protect your pay. who are fighting against banking reform. >> this election -- if this bill passes. >> karl, we're almost out of time. i want to get both of you to respond to something. i want to get both of you to respond to something. this is a poll that came out about what americans think about the process here. this is a kaiser family foundation poll about getting health care passed. only 19% say they believe the process is working as intended. and 73% say the process is

broken. frankly, i think a lot of americans listening to this debate right here might agree with in a 73% that say the process is not working. my question to you, david, isn't that in some sense, an indictment of president obama, since he got elected, promising to change the system? >> well, he's trying to. first of all, in almost every poll out there, well over 60% of the american people believe that president obama is trying to work with the republicans. the converse is true. well over 60% of the people believe that republicans aren't reciprocating. and worse than that. it's not because of principle. they think it's because of raw, naked politics. he's trying. he's making his executive branch more transparent. lessening the influence of lobbyists. he's going to work on immigration, education, on some of the energy ideas. i think we have the opportunity to work in a bipartisan fashion. he's going to look for that opportunity each and every day. >> karl, we're almost out of time. don't republicans bear some

blame for this? >> this is an indictment of the president. he held a meeting on march 5th, 2009, to talk about health care reform. the next time he talked to republicans on health care reform, was the blair house meeting. he has been aloof, distant, detached. this bill is based on bernie madoff economics. and it includes things he campaigned against hillary clinton and john mccain on during the campaign. >> all right. >> it is a bad bill for america. we will fight the election on this. and the democrats will have significant losses in the house and senate as a result of this bill. >> you have ten seconds. >> listen, karl and a lot of the republicans want to call the election all over. health care reform is good for people. and it's good for the country. >> for the longest mission -- >> karl rove? >> you should not denigrate the mission like you just did. >> karl rove, joining us from

indianapolis. thanks for joining us on "this week." david plouffe, thank you very much. i think we'll be debating some more. coming up, a special "roundtable," george will, sam donaldson, democrat tom daschle and republican trent lott. and "the sunday funnies." >> they're working on declaring march 18th as st. obama day. we want to honor the president for driving the democrats out of washington. yes.

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coming up next, "the roundtable" and "the sunday funnies."

as we profess a desire and a need for bipartisanship, we have a process that is this inexcusable on an issue this important. i think it is fair to say, and i don't know that any republicans would ever dispute it. the democrats were virtually locked out from the beginning. >> trying to have a bipartisan bill on the finance committee. that was denied. tried to get something done before it got to the floor, work with the centrist groups, that was denied. >> two former senators a decade ago, sounding a lot like the current senate leaders. they're here with us on "the roundtable." we have george will. former majority leader trent lott. and former majority leader, tom daschle. and sam donaldson. put this day in historical context.

>> here's the context. today, as happened yesterday, and as happened yesterday, and as will happen tomorrow, 7,000 baby boomers will retire and going on the social security and medicare role, increasing the pressure on the system. we're about to, going to add 32 million more people on the entitlement, involving subsidies of health care insurance, up to $80,000 a year. democrats who vote in the house today for this, think they're going to put it behind them. the odds are very good, after the reconciliation procedures are done in the senate, that will it come back to the house. we'll be wallowing in health care for a long time to come. and finally, once this has passed, the american people will look at the health care system and say this is the system that democrats wanted. so, every complaint they have is going to be a complaint about

democrats. >> can i jump in before the majority leaders? >> sure. >> that's the weakest argument for keeping 32 million americans still off of health care. for making them go the emergency rooms, shifting the cost to the rest of us. the fact we can't help the fellow citizens because we're not a rich enough country to pay for it. that's silly, george. >> before we get to the leaders, let's look at the entitlement programs, the two other big votes this has been compared to. we have 1965 and the medicare vote. it passed the house, 313-115, with a significant portion of the republican caucus voting yes. and 1935, social security, 372 yes. just 33 no. the majority of republicans joining democrats and voting yes. what happened this time, senator daschle? >> i think it's a different republican party than it was. it's a republican party that really doesn't have the same commitment that the same republicans had in other decades.

i mean, i had the good fortunate to work with two republicans, howard baker and bob dole, who worked very constructively over the last 18 months to come up with a bill they endorsed, similar to the plan we have in front of congress today. i think in part, we have a much more rigid, more ideological party than we had before. and i think that's been playing out for the last couple of years. >> i can say exactly the same thing the other way. this is a very dogmatic, i'd logically committed democratic party. the leaders decide, we have the votes. we're going to ram it through. we are going to ram it through the house, one republican vote. and through the senate, and in the final analysis, no republican votes. there was no effort to make this a bipartisan bill. there are good parts of this bill that could have been passed in pieces. everybody agrees there needs to be insurance reform. there's other areas i think they could have come together. in may of last year, there was a

republican effort to reach out and say let's sit down and see if we can come to agreement on a number of things. and we're told basically, thanks but no thanks. this is a huge bill that's going to dramatically change how the american people get their health care. now, look. yeah. you would like to have more people covered. but in covering 32 million people more, and saying, by the way, we're going to cut taxes. and we're going to reduce the deficit, it defies common sense. you cannot do all of that. >> but the cbo, says exactly that. they've scored this bill. they've said that not only is the federal government going to save $6 billion. but in the second decade, we're going to save $1.3 trillion. the cbo is the referee. we can differ with it. those on the right will continue to object to cbo's score. but the score is the score. it's the official referee. we now it now in black and white. >> but what the cbo does is takes congress' promises at face value. let me ask the two legislators

here. do you really believe that the tax on the cadillac, the high-value health insurance programs that have been kicked down or would be kicked down the road to 2018, do you believe that will enacted? who believes that the medicare cuts will be made? cbo has to assume that. >> the doctor fix they'll have to do. the doctors will be cut by 21% unless congress changes it this fall. >> we have an article in "the new york times" by a cbo director. he's a republican. >> john mccain's campaign manager. >> i understand. but someone who knows something about the cbo. he talked exactly on this point. he said if you strip out the gimmicks and budget tear games and rework the calculus, a wholly different picture emerges. the health care reform legislation would raise, not lower fall deficits. >> future congresses will be wienies, pardon the word. >> there's a good record of that. >> there will be an imperative

on the hands of future congresses if they don't like these particular tax increases. they don't like these particular cuts, to do something. they can't just let it go. i think the body politic wouldn't stand for that. and from the standpoint of this bill, changing america, which a lot of people want to say, you can still have your own doctor, just as you have now. you have a health care plan you have now. you can still have it. >> i'm not going to take anymore medicaid patients. or i'm not going to take any medicare patients. and that's beginning to happen. >> they're doing that now. the status quo is unsustainable. we can't sustain the problems. the costs. we can't sustain any aspect of health care as it's now delivered in this country. >> let me jump in with this, too. you mention medicare and social security, very popular. very important parts of our fabric in america. but both of them are in financial difficulty. here we are, putting more weight on medicare. at a time when it's already

facing tremendous problems because of the baby boomers coming along. >> george is quite correct. because of the demography of the country that's changing, we have to fix these things. >> we've been having to do it the last ten years. we didn't do it. >> we fixed social security in the early '80s. we may have to fix it again. but that's no reason to abandon it or abandon health care. >> one of the first and most predictable consequences of this bill is that health insurance premiums are going to go up. they have to, tom. we're changing the risk pool. once you say to insurance companies they cannot discriminate against people who have pre-existing conditions, when you bring the risk pool in, all of the people who already have troubles, you're going to have the premiums go up. that's the first thing that's going to change. >> but george is right about premiums. there are issues involving premiums. but what he hasn't mentioned is the increased transparency, the

fact we're going to get away from rewarding volume. we're going to reward value. we're going to have delivery reform for the first time. we're going to deal with the structural problems in our health care system for the first time in history. and those are, by cbo account, going to have a profound effect in bringing costs down, not raising them. >> let me make one other point here. i know process of washington consumes us. and the average american out there is saying, what is all this? i have never seen such a contorted process to try to get a bill through the house, through the senate. they talk about just deeming the bill passed. at least they were wise enough yesterday to back away from deem and pass, even though you didn't vote on it. and now, it's going to go back to the senate for reconciliation. i use reconciliation. but not like this. >> trent knows procedure as well as anybody in washington. and he knows that the republicans are very masterful if they want to be, just as

democrats were in the minority, at stopping virtually every procedural opportunity there was. >> let me get to -- >> how can the republicans be complaining about process when they themselves put their bodies in front of that legislative process for the last 18 years? >> let me get to the next step, which is the senate. >> go right ahead. >> this supposedly is not over, right? the reconciliation fix has to pass in the senate. and many of those house democrats are going to vote yes today are doing so because they've been assured it will pass in the senate. >> they can trust the senate. >> i spoke to senator mitch mcconnell about this. and here's what he had to say. >> i think any house democrat who votes for this bill, thinking the senate is going to clean up the mess is delusional. plus, their trusting the senate to clean up the mess. as one of my colleagues put it, it would be walk off a cliff and hope that harry reid catches you. >> is he going to catch him? >> i don't think so. >> senator daschle? >> we're going to pass the

reconciliation package in the house. it will go to the senate. there's 20 hours. amendments can be offered. procedural challenges can be made. at the end of the day, the majority will rule. and harry reid has the votes. he's going to demonstrate that beginning this week. >> i found it interesting he did release the letter. it's a letter giving the house democrats assurance. and they tell us there are 51 signatures on the letter. but in what's been released, the signatures are left off and it's a blank piece of paper. >> if so much as a comma is changed, its goes back to the house. >> that's true. >> but this is a protected measure. that is, it's an expedited procedure, that allows a majority in the house and the senate. there's no reason why we wouldn't have the votes necessary to pass reconciliation when it happens. >> the bill is going to pass. reconciliation is going to pass. it's becoming the law. and in november, people will argue, as part of the offyear elections, about it.

and down the road, they'll keep arguing. and down the road, it will have to be fixed again. if this bill, as i perceive it, were the only thing that was going to pass and would never change, if i were in the senate, i would vote no. or the house. but we have to take the first step. tried for 100 years. couldn't do it. without a first step for that 1,000-mile journey, you're never going to make it. along the way, you have to change the steps. but without the first step, we're ruined. >> the only time i've ever seen the congress turn tail and run and reverse a bill that passed -- >> you're exactly right. >> we passed it in the fall. went home. got an earful. came back the next year and reversed it. >> but you remember that bill, don't you? it said that older people needed to pay if they wanted catastrophic health insurance if they had the money. and most of the older people who didn't, wouldn't have to pay. but elderly people who were wealthy would have to pay. they rose up in arms.

don't you touch me. >> we've spent the entire show talking about health care. and we looked back at the president's speeches over the last month. we put it in into a program that shows you a visual reputation of how many words, the big suggest lines he uses. this is a world cloud. you can see, of course. this is 35 speeches over the last month. health, insurance, the big issues. try to find jobs on that little word cloud. we can help you if we have another graphic. this health care has crowded everything else out. you won't see a single mention in any of the speeches of afghanistan, or terrorism. has this been a cost that this has dominated, not only the last month. but it's dominated much of obama's presidency so far? >> it has. and it's by design. this president cares deeply about this issue. he's said to me it's his legacy. and he understands the balance and the importance of this. but he's also done an extraordinary amount of work in the other areas, as well. we made progress on the economy.

we're doing very well in afghanistan and iraq right now. the elections just were held. you look at all of the other aspects of his presidency. and i would say in spite of the fact that you may not talk about them in rallies around the country. the fact is we're making progress. this is where he's put his emphasis for a reason. today is that day. today is when we're going to see health care passed. >> but it goes beyond health care. we see just last week there had been negotiations on so-called financial services reform. been negotiations on so-called financial services reform. there's been a lo of bipartisan corker, senator shelby, senator dodd and others. and all of a sudden, under pressure i believe from president obama and from his left flank, chris dodd said no more negotiations to find a bipartisan common cause. we're going to ram this through without republican participation. there is a pattern here. and i think they're going to pay a tremendous cost. >> we heard from -- >> chris dodd actually said, i want to continue to work with

corker and other senators. he called them over to his home. he worked out details on task forces on bipartisan basis. jack reid is working with the republican party. >> it's not going to make it through the process. >> one of the few republicans who has been working on a variety of issues with the president and with democrats, lindsey graham. and he's made no bones about it. he believes going through with the process, the reconciliation process, is going to destroy his efforts to work on health care -- on immigration, on the guantanamo issue. it's going to destroy it all. sam? >> it's not going to. some republicans say if this health care bill passes, and i think it will, it will destroy the country. that's nonsense. >> it's not going to destroy the country. but will it destroy bipartisan? >> the minute you started "the roundtable," shows there's not much bipartisanship up there. >> we were able to do it in the '90s. >> you and tom? >> yeah. >> i recall some fights, though.

>> history from the standpoint -- on the floor of the senate. >> we had our disagreements. but we also came together. welfare reform, balanced budgets. safe drinking water. portability of insurance. big things in a bipartisan way. >> the democratic members of the house and senate, their appetite for difficult votes is now exhausted, which means, the country will -- this is the good news about health care. having sucked all of the oxygen out of this town, we will be safe from cap and trade, and others that will require democrats to continue -- >> i think, george, each one of these takes on its life. and they start developing the kind of momentum. we're going to have an energy bill. we'll have a financial securities bill. it may not involve a capped system as i would like it. but you're going to see progress on these other important issues. i guarantee you. they all take on their own life and their own momentum. and the next ones are coming. financial regulation in particular. >> you are going to take a hit. the democrats will take a hit in

november. maybe mainly because of the economy, rather than the health care dispute. but you'll lose more than the offyear losses. you're not going to have the control in congress that you have right now. i think the president was wrong to try to say we'll take all of the islands at once, instead of one island at a time. but he was right to take the big island of health care. i think that's very important. >> "the wall street journal"/nbc poll shows the job approval in the country in congress, is 17%. who are those 17%? haven't we found a way to lower the approval? i understand that politics is a transactional business. are you at all embarrassed about water suddenly being released into the california valley because of health care? >> you're going to see polarization. when that polarization continues as it has, people are not enchanted with congress. they want to see cooperation. they want to be able to see some progress on some of the issues. i guarantee -- >> when we were working together, after 9/11 in 2001,

the approval waiting went up to 71%. why? because people saw us working together to do the right thing. >> we don't have much time. i've been wanting to ask you this for some time. harry reid is facing -- he may be the most vulnerable democrat in the senate. or one of them. you were in exactly that situation, as a leader, facing a tough re-election race. what do you make of reid's chances? what advice do you have for him in juggling those two problems? running for re-election and running your caucus? >> i think you have to do the right thing. that means be the best leader you can be. the best senator from the state of nevada or south dakota or mississippi. do what you have to do to lead this country as well as you can do it, for as long as the people of your state give you that chance. that's what harry reid is doing. >> what do you think? he's going to lose, isn't he? >> i don't think so. i think harry reid can turn this around. i really do.

once health care passes. you know, and people start focusing on the opposition, he's as strong a competitor. he's never -- he lost one election. and i have to tell you. he's a resilient, political leader. >> you have a real headline. >> predicting that harry reid -- >> in the short run, democrats will lose seats in november. in the long run, when people discover there is no death panel, there's not going to cut basic medicare. next year, it will be the same. they're cutting the subsidy for medicare. >> less health care. more taxes. more fees. more government intervention. that's what they're going to experience. >> and there you have it. we're out of time. thank you very much. george will, trent lott, tom daschle, sam donaldson. "the roundtable" will continue in "the green room" on abcnews.com, where you can get all of the political updates all week long by signing up for our newsletter on abcnews.com. coming up later, "the sunday funnies." and the this-won't- hurt-a-bit business.

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