captioning sponsored by wpbt >> paul: weekly jobless benefits claims rise unexpectedly, but you might be surprised to learn those benefits aren't for everyone. over half of the nation's unemployed aren't covered. >> susie: trucking stocks are facing multiple headwinds. demand for shipping is down, while costs and competition are up. and analysts are split on whether now's the time to pick up shares. >> paul: our guest tonight sees oil prices heading back to the $100 a barrel level by the end of the year. he's john kilduff, energy analyst at m.f. global. >> susie: if you're looking to trade in your old gas guzzler, you'd better do so soon. the government is slamming the brakes on the popular cash for clunkers program. >> paul: i'm paul kangas. >> susie: and i'm susie gharib. this is "nightly business report" for wednesday, august 19. "nightly business report" is made possible by:

this program was made possible by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. thank you. >> susie: good evening, everyone.

an unwelcome surprise for the u.s. economy today, as more americans filed for jobless benefits. the number of claims jumped by 15,000 to a seasonally adjusted 576,000. most economists had expected a drop. the report raises questions about the economic outlook and the strength of the recovery. >> susie: while those unemployment claims rose last week, not every out-of-work person is eligible to receive benefits. as stephanie dhue explains, there are many categories of who can and cannot get financial help. >> thank you. >> reporter: out of work since june, james phillips is now watching his sister's kids to help make ends meet. after working for a church for two years, he found he wasn't eligible for unemployment benefits, even though he had worked in the private sector for almost 20 years. >> the last two years, i chose to work for a church-- didn't pay into it, now i don't have it when i need it the most, and that's kind of disappointing

more than anything. >> reporter: phillips is feverishly hunting for a job. he's also cutting his budget, and dipping into savings. he's not alone. currently, 56% of the jobless are not collecting or don't qualify for unemployment benefits. falling into the no-benefit category: new entrants to the workforce, like recent college graduates, most seasonal workers, and the self employed. ross eisenbrey of the economic policy institute says those workers simply aren't counted. >> for unemployment purposes, they are not employees, no one has paid unemployment insurance taxes on their behalf, they don't get benefits, so when they can't find work, they are out of luck. >> reporter: another soon to be out-of-luck group, the long-term unemployed. as of last month, 15% of the unemployed had been out of work for a year or more. and between september and the end of the year, an estimated one and a half million people will see their unemployment benefits run out. >> for example, in new jersey in one week in september, they will

have 33,000 people who will exhaust all of their entitlement to benefits. there's a move in congress to extend unemployment by an additional 13 weeks in states with high jobless rates. but that won't help people like james phillips. >> you live day to day, not knowing what's around the corner, you live in a real sort of fear that you may not make it financially and as a father and a husband, probably one of worst things to go through. >> reporter: still, phillips is hopeful he'll find a job quickly, even though the numbers don't support that optimism. nationwide, there are nearly six unemployed people for every available job. stephanie dhue, "nightly business report," washington. >> paul: wall street headed higher today as that surprise rise in jobless benefit claims was offset by rebounds in most global markets.

by 10:00 a.m. the dow posted a 38 point gain with the nasdaq up 15 points. stocks extended their gains on a survey showing a rise in mid- atlantic factory activity and a 6/10% increase in the july leading economic indicators, a fourth straight monthly gain. steady buying persisted and stocks closed near the day's best levels. the dow ended the day up 70.89 at 9350.05. the nasdaq added 19.98 to 1989.22. the s&p 500 gained 10.91 to 1007.37. in the bond market, the 10 year note rose 8/32 to 101-21/32 putting the yield at 3.43%.

>> susie: those higher jobless claims numbers also triggered a drop in oil prices today. in new york trading, october crude futures fell 92 cents to $72.91 a barrel. joining us now to talk more about the outlook for prices, john kilduff energy analyst at m.f. global. hi, john. >> hi, good evening, susie. >> so you're predicting $100 oil by the end of the year. that's a big move from where we are right now. give us your analysis? >> well, it's a very real possibility. because of all the elements that are at work right now in the various markets, the recovery you see in the stock market n a way for right now it's good news for us all that oil prices are where they are because it is a real validation that economic activity is back in the calculus of everything, particularly in china and certainly in what we are seeing in europe. as you mentioned today about the earlier in the show about the leading economic indicators, showing another positive reading today.

all combining to help push these oil prices up. >> is it real demand, john? because we always here about -- hear about speculations in the markets, manipulation in the oil market is this real economic activity? >> it's a combination of real economic activity. it's also a combination of demand -- inflation fears that are in this market that are being driven by budget and monetary policies around the world. also the falling dollar is driving this prospect as well. so it's a combination of that and constrained supply. saudi arabia is chief among opec members in complying with their quota by $110% so they really cut back as have our nations refiners in terms of their run rates. the amount of gasoline and diesel fuel they are producing. also very much constrained, running at below 85%, really all year to try to keep a lid on burgeoning supplies. >> well, now that you bring up opec, they do i have meeting coming up on

september 9th. do you expect opec ministers to increase output, cut output or keep it right where it is. >> it will be price dependent to a degree but to the extent we are below $85 a barrel they will do nothing. however they are in a very activist mode v been now for a couple of years. if prices continue to go higher, i would look for moves quickly by saudi arabia, they got more oil on the market and for them to convene via telephone if not in a special meeting to up all the production quotas to get the price under control. they don't want it to run away again and to trip us back into another round of a recession or economic contraction. >> let me back up a little bit again on your $100 oil prediction. what does that translate to at the pump? what would that mean for gasoline prices? >> much higher obviously. i do want to say, i'm not saying it a virtual lock. because there will be price resistence at points such as 80 and $85 a barrel there will be consumer pushback as gasoline retail prices climb

well above that $3 bevel level. hast year we didn't see the consumer pull back until gasoline prices got over $4 a gallon. this year the consumer here especially in the united states, much more impoverished. doesn't have the ability at all to withstand that those kind of numbers. so the push up towards $1 -- will be felt and reacted to but i do think we're going to see it because of the various factors that we talked about. the u.s. dollar abouting down, inflation pressures and redemand particularly out of china and the rest of the world where they use a lot of diesel fuel there say big call for it. and look for it to be, the stocks that we do have on hand to be dwindled quickly. >> a lot has been made of the economists that we talked to on our program that the economic recovery may not be a very sharp recovery, may not be a very robust recovery. it could be mild. if that were the case, what does that mean for the price of oil. maybe china is booming but if the u.s. economy isn't, could that keep a lid on oil prices?

what we have is a bit of a structural desilt in terms of crude production globally and refining capacity. as we approach near normal refining activity we are in a tight energy supply situation as it relates to fossil fuels or crude oil based fuels. so china just last month imported another record amount of crude oil rivaling last year's stellar numbers. so that is fear. that is why you are seeing energy prices really run ahead of every other asset class in terms it of pricing in the recovery. >> all right, we will have to leave it there. john, thank you so much for coming on the program tonight. >> thank you. >> my guest tonight john kilduff of mf global. >> paul: home foreclosures and mortgage delinquencies are hitting new highs. the mortgage bankers association today reporting a record 13% of mortgages were in foreclosure or at least one payment past due during the second quarter. and the mix of problem loans is changing. foreclosures on subprime

adjustable-rate mortgages actually fell this spring, while the number of prime fixed-rate foreclosures rose. prime loans accounted for one in three foreclosures in q-2. the mortgage bankers say that reflects the toll of job losses on home loan defaults. >> paul: there's a saying among investors: so goes trucking, so goes the economy. that's because trucks carry 70% of the manufactured and retail goods around the country. the industry is typically among the first to benefit from a pick-up in consumer demand. erika miller looks at whether

the road ahead is bumpy or bright. >> people now are moving into bigger places, finally. and they're moving into homes again finally and even businesses are finding bigger office space because they're getting good deals, so why not? >> reporter: if you want to feel good about the economic recovery, talk with jon katz at flat rate moving. new york's largest mover says business has been improving steadily this year. ditto for profits. >> we're down slightly from where we were last year. but we feel good about the rest of this year. and we feel we're really going to even out. >> reporter: but plenty of other transportation companies are suffering, especially freight carriers. shipments are down, because consumers and businesses are buying fewer things. the total weight of truck shipments has dropped 15% nationwide over the past year and a half. transportation economist paul bingham says many truckers are battling for survival. >> the biggest constraint right now is just a lack of demand. they just don't have enough freight-- enough customers out

there generating enough revenue to cover their sunk costs in terms of the assets they've got. the trucks and the yards and the equipment that they've invested in. >> reporter: and, this year, relatively few freight companies have gone out of business. transportation analyst chris ceraso says that's because fuel prices are cheaper than they were a year ago. >> this time last year, high fuel prices were accelerating the demise of some truckers, then fuel prices collapsed earlier this year. that has kept some truckers in business-- exacerbating the supply/demand imbalance and adding to the fact that prices are depressed. >> reporter: despite the challenging environment, trucking stocks have been trucking higher on hopes an economic recovery is finally underway. the dow jones u.s. trucking index has zoomed 58% from the march 9 lows beating the overall stock market. >> reporter: but analysts say be careful about buying trucking stocks now. after all, there's still no proof of a turnaround in shipment volume. >> i think the worst of the declines are behind us...

recently behind us. i think we're at an inflection point here. i think we will still see year over year declines for the next few quarters. but those declines will be getting smaller. >> reporter: but if you believe flatrate moving, things may be picking up. the company hired 50 new workers in may, in order to meet rising demand. erika miller, "nightly business report," new york >> susie: it's the end of the road for the popular cash for clunkers program. the obama administration will pull the plug on the $3 billion rebate program at 8:00 p.m. eastern time monday evening. buyers can still trade their gas-guzzlers this weekend for rebates on new fuel efficient models of up to $4,500 dollars. the department of transportation is still trying to get a read on how much money is left in the program and how soon it can pay back dealers. meanwhile, general motors and chrysler said they will help their dealers with the cash crunch created by the clunkers program. they'll give cash advances to dealers still waiting for uncle sam to pay clunker claims. dealers across the country have

been complaining about the slow and difficult reimbursement process. the department of transportation says the payment process is picking up with 37% of claims now paid. >> paul: on the positive side, susie, the program has been a success with roughly half a million sales on the books. now let's take a look at some stocks in the news tonight.

>> paul: and those are the stocks tonight. susie? >> susie: morgan stanley is once again hiring, thanks to the market rebound. the wall street investment firm is looking to fill 400 trading and sales positions. morgan stanley cut its trading staff last year as it grappled with the credit crisis. but with its rivals pulling in big profits on fixed income and equity trading in recent quarters. morgan is moving to beef up those operations. >> paul: tomorrow, our friday market monitor guest is mark skousen, editor of the investing newsletter "forecasts and strategies." >> susie: your morning caffeine fix could soon cost a little more, as starbucks announced price changes today. in some cities, the coffee chain is charging up to 25 cents more for its most complex coffee concoctions like frappacinos. but it's trimming prices on some basic drinks by a nickel to ten cents. starbucks says the changes will

go nationwide over the next few months. >> paul: no signs of the recession at jet blue. the airline has sold out of its $599 "all you can jet" passes. the company said it received overwhelming demand for the deal, which allows unlimited travel between september 8 and october 8 on jet blue planes. the sellout comes a week after the deal was launched and two days before the offer was scheduled to end.

>> susie: here's a look at what's happening tomorrow. federal reserve chairman ben bernanke gives his reflections on a year in crisis at a fed conference in jackson hole, wyoming. also tomorrow, existing home sales are released and quarterly results from j.m. smucker and ann taylor stores. if the recession is winding down, why are consumers and businesses having a hard time getting bank financing. tonight's "two ways to play" looks at the reasons behind the slow credit flow. here's kevin depew of "minyanville" and "minyanville's" kevin depew. >> access to credit is getting tighter. banks are not only cutting credit lines for more consumers, they're also becoming more aggressive in their cuts. conventional wisdom says the economy can't recover without access to credit.

but a recent study of all nine post-world war ii recessions by barclays capital, says this thinking may be wrong. according to the study, in the first year of recovery net new borrowing almost always lags the economy. the study also points out that, historically, borrowing by households and corporations always falls in the first year of recovery, which is precisely what is happening today. >> as you've pointed out, the supply of credit is certainly falling, and that's typical of how most recessions unfold, but there are two sides to the credit coin. availability of credit on the one side, demand for credit on the other. during prior recessions, credit availability was a short-term problem, largely because the underlying demand for it was still present. now, however, both availability and demand for credit are declining. that's key, because credit demand is the side of the coin the federal reserve cannot control. a central bank can make credit available, but there must be demand for it or it's like throwing a party where no one shows up. >> susie: more now, on our top story: unemployment.

as more people find themselves looking for work, many are attending job fairs. today, more than 350 job candidates came face to face with recruiters, but this was no ordinary job fair. it was designed specifically to help those who've served their country. they describe the event, in their own words. >> anybody's got a resume. i'd appreciate getting a copy of it. >> the purpose of today's event is kind of basically for a way for veterans to connect with companies. because companies just can't just walk onto a base and say i'm here to hire veterans and veterans can't walk into any corporate america building and say, "hey i'm a veteran, please hire me." so this is a way for them to come together-- on one accord and get to what's usually the last step, which is face to face meeting. >> we do see a better quality of candidate it seems at the recruit military job fairs. then, i would say than the average job fair that we go to. just because the military core values are so tightly interwoven with what we have at bank of america. >> my job search is going real well. they found at a table down there... navy defense

contractors. because i have my license, they said i found a hard to fill position and they're trying to get past h.r. right now and get me hired, so it's going real well. but to some, have supply chain experience that translates very well into our supply chain environment. contract negotiation type "o" experience, corporate security, information security, business continuity that disaster management background in preparing for things to happen that you can imagine in the banking business translates very well. >> take my card go to our website and see what's on there. i'm hearing a lot. some obviously are taking time and talking, but there are some also that are just giving that information and that's almost a daily ritual. next step is to continue this process on a daily basis, and search every avenue that 's available for job recruitment, whether it's online, or through an agency... whatever, that's critical. just staying out there and being exposed to as many opportunities

as possible. that's pretty much it. >> susie: that's "nightly business report" for thursday, august 20. i'm susie gharib goodnight, everyone and good night to you, paul. >> paul: goodnight, susie. i'm paul kangas wishing all of you the best of good buys. "nightly business report" is made possible by: this program was made possible by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. thank you.

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