captioning sponsored by macneil/lehrer productions >> ifill: it's decision day in iowa, as the first votes are cast in the 2012 presidential election. good evening. i'm gwen ifill. >> woodruff: and i'm judy woodruff at the republican party's campaign headquarters in des moines. on the newshour tonight, we have full coverage of the final flurry of campaign events by the six presidential hopefuls who are competing here. >> this is the big moment. i want to restore the principles that made america. >> and what we need to restore peace, prosperity and liberty to all of us. >> folks, we are going to take america back.

>> ifill: we get analysis from iowa pollster j. ann selzer, stuart rothenberg of the "rothenberg political report," and newshour political editor christina bellantoni. >> woodruff: and perspective from historians jeffrey stein, michael beschloss, and richard norton smith, and newshour regulars mark shields and david brooks. >> ifill: plus, hari sreenivasan reports on syrian americans who say they are being watched by syrian spies in the u.s. as their families are being harassed at home. >> when they were beating my wife, she was screaming, why are you killing me? why are you hitting me? they said we're doing this to teach you a lesson because your son is demonstrating against us. >> ifill: that's all ahead on tonight's newshour. major funding for the pbs newshour has been provided by: and the william and flora hewlett foundation, working to solve social and environmental problems at home and around the world.

and with the ongoing support of these institutions and foundations. and... this program was made possible by the corporation for public broadcasting. and by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. thank you. >> woodruff: it is countdown to caucus night in iowa, and six republican presidential hopefuls worked right up to the end. they were seeking the first harvest of delegates in the nominating season and all- important momentum going forward. wherever the candidates stood in the polls, the message in the final hours was the same. get out the vote. >> this is a big, big moment. all of you are going to have an opportunity to be able to vote in the caucuses tonight. obviously i encourage you to do so. >> come out to the caucuses because tonight is your night to weigh in and make a difference. >> woodruff: the weather was cooperating in the bid to

boost turnout. it was frigid but clear. and there was no snow on the ground. that could encourage more voters to show up at 809 caucus sites statewide. they'll be deciding the division of 25 delegates, ultimately it will take 1144 nationally to capture the republican presidential nomination. >> we are an opportunity nation. >> woodruff: the frontrunner for that nomination, former massachusetts governor mitt romney, predicted monday that he'd win iowa. this morning, he scaled back saying he would be among the top group. and in des moines he was looking ahead to november and president obama. >> the president said he wants to fundamentally transform america. i don't want to transform america. i want to restore the principles that made america. this is the america we love. i'm going to make sure we take those principles to the white house and get america working again. >> woodruff: but romney came under attack himself.

on cbs former house speaker newt gingrich insisted romney cannot disavow a barrage of negative ads that contributed to gingrich's slide in the polls. >> are you calling mitt romney a liar? >> yes. >> you're calling mitt romney a liar? >> well, you seem shocked by it. yes. this is a man whose staff created the pac. his millionaire friends funded the pac. he pre-tends he has nothing to do with the pac. it's balogne. he's not telling the american people the truth. it's just like his pretense that he's a conservative. >> reporter: romney in turn brushed off gingrich's jabs and told ms-nbc, "if i can't stand up to that, i shouldn't be the nominee." meanwhile texas congressman ron paul was also aiming to take first place in iowa. he spoke to young voters in west des moines. >> we see this as a real opportunity, this campaign and what's coming up tonight and in the next several months, this is wonderful opportunity to restate our sound

principles about why this country had been great and what we need to restore peace, prosperity, and liberty to all of us. thank you very much. >> woodruff: both romney and paul were watching the late- surging rick santorum. the former pennsylvania senator played up his chances on abc this morning. >> they've looked at all the candidates. they're looking for the candidate they can trust. that's why we're moving up in the polls. >> reporter: for his part texas governor rick perry tried to reassure volunteers despite his long-shot chances. he was already shifting his focus on the south carolina primary on january 21. >> just like the super bowl starting now. i don't get confused if this is a marathon. this will go on for some time as we lay out our vision for america, as we talk about how to get this country back on track. >> woodruff: minnesota congresswoman michele bachmann also trailed the pack but insisted she was still optimistic. >> we think people will be very surprised with what the vote is tonight. we're confident.

that's why we bought our tickets for south carolina. we're moving on. >> reporter: there was no drama tonight on the democratic side. the state party chair said democrats are excited about re-electing president obama just the same. >> there is a load of enthusiasm on our side. we'll stand with the president and with his record and stand for what he wants to do moving forward, stand with him, next to him, behind him, in front of him and get ready to go. we're ready. >> woodruff: the president planned a live web chat with his iowa supporters during tonight's caucuses. but the main spotlight tonight is of course on the republicans. none of them is feeling confident. they all have a case of the nerves especially those three who are bunched at the top: romney, paul, and santorum. that's because expectations have been raised so high for them. i will tell you though, gwen, that every one of these six candidates is working hard to get out the vote and make sure

they have people speaking for them tonight at these caucuses who are persuasive and can persuade anyone who is undecided. >> ifill: some of them are actually bringing their families, judy. their last day as they make their closing statements. who are they speaking to especially these top three candidates? >> woodruff: well, er in talking... well, they are talking to the constituents. romney's case is i'm the most electable and the one best able to beat barack obama. i have that business experience. he's looking at moderate republicans and there are a number of those in iowa. he's also trying to pick up a more conservative vote. ron paul's argument hasn't changed either. he's saying he wants radical change. he wants to cut the budget a trillion dollars the first year he's in office. he wants to bring all the troops home from overseas. for rick santorum who is really just now getting the kind of audience he would have loved to have had for a number of months he's saying i'm an authentic conservative but i'm also able to work with people

across the aisle, with democrats. all three of them are in a way making the same argument but just reinforcing them. >> ifill: we keep hearing about undecided, uncommitted voters at the end. are they undecided truely? or are they just not in love with the person they agreed to support? >> woodruff: i think it's a mixture, gwen. i think truly people, a lot of voters i've spoken to, i think you and i talked earlier today and i think i told you of the 25, 30 voters i've talked to just in the last couple of days. only one of them was completely committed. everybody else said, you know, i could change my mind. i'm leaning. probably going to go romney, paul or whomever else they like. but they let the door open. there are some, i think, who are genuinely undecided, who are going to go to these caucuses tonight, listen to the arguments and make up their minds then. as you and i both know, there are always people in a situation like this who just don't want to tell reporters or pollsters what they're thinking.

there really is an element of inpredictability tonight. >> ifill: part of it is always in the closing moments in these kinds of campaigns things happen that you and i don't necessarily see. there are phone calls made. there are flyers that are slipped under front doors. we see signs of that happening in iowa as well? >> woodruff: we sure are. there are and it now has become commonplace in american campaigns in the final days of the campaign and even earlier but in this case in the final days of these, before the iowa caucuses robo-calls, automatic calls, dialing one number after another. we know there are calls going out from the ron paul campaign because they are acknowledging their robo-calling. the santorum campaign is accusing them of practically dirty tricks. they are saying ron paul is going after santorum saying he doesn't truly have a clear record as a pro-life republican. they're also saying he's not truly for gun rights as he says he is. you know, the water are

muddyed that way. but, gwen, i would say the main way most iowans are hearing from these candidates this year is over the television air waves. the candidates, with one exception and that's santorum. most of them really haven't campaigned in this state until the very end. and most voters are hearing about them from what they see on tv. a lot of that is negative. most of it directed against newt gingrich. >> ifill: les we forget, barack obama is also caucusing tonight or at least his supporters are. is there any evidence of a democratic caucus campaign going on? >> woodruff: well, we do run into democrats when we talk to people in cafes. today i was at aaron paul event... actually it was run by young voters to get young people out to vote. a number of young people there who had come to hear romney, paul, bachmann told me afterwards they're for barack obama. so we know there is some obama support here. the obama campaign tells us they have eight campaign offices open in the state. more than any of the republicans.

they say they've made 350,000 phone calls. they say they are gearing up and ready to go. and the president is going to be talking to all these caucus sites. they're going to be caucusing around the state tonight as well. 250-some places in iowa. the president will be defending his record and trying to put iowa under his belt again in 2012. >> ifill: thanks a lot, judy. we'll be back to pick your brain all night especially later tonight when we begin to get some results. >> woodruff: great. see you then. now we turn to "des moines register" pollster j. ann selzer, who has been tracking a race that in recent days has turned into a three-way grudge match. ann, what is your final survey that came out this weekend, we were all sitting on the edge of our seats on new year's eve waiting for it. what did it tell us about who is actually going to be voting tonight and why? >> well, the race is so close. you're seeing every candidate now in these final days breaking a sweat, something that we just really hadn't seen. they're all fighting to get

one percentage point more, two percentage points more. that may be what decides the race. you have newt gingrich who has fallen. that vote got picked up by rick santorum. by ron paul is sort of holding, slipping, not sure. and mitt romney sort of is staying where he was. >> ifill: you've been doing this for a while taking these kinds of surveys. is there often a difference between what we see in that final poll and what the final voting turns out to be? >> well, i will humbly say that the iowa poll since it started doing caucus polling has always gotten the top person correct. but i can't tell you that in my history with that poll that we've things as volatile and things as close at the end as we see in the final poll. >> ifill: is rick santorum actually surging as we keep hearing? >> well, one of the indicators i have that that surge is real is that the other candidates are now coming after him. so they must think that that surge is real. >> ifill: compare this moment in time to what it felt like four years ago when mike

huckabee, famously got a big chunk of the vote by going and organizing evangelicals to support him. does this feel like that or does this feel different? >> well, what is different is that we have more candidates competing for that evangelical vote. so it has splintered. you really don't have that kind of block before. keep in mind mike huckabee did not get 60% of the vote and 60% of the people in the entrance poll said they were evangelical. that vote is still a little bitty lose i have. it's splintered. we'll see what happens tonight. >> ifill: it's easy for us to put people in demographic boxes but we also can believe, i think, that these are issue- driven elections as well. when people talk to you and say this is why i am voting for a candidate-x, what are the issues which are driving them one way or another? >> well, there are two things that come through so crystal clear. there are people who are just adamant that they want to pick the right person, so the things that they believe in,

the things, what's in their heart. then there are people who say the most important thing is who can beat barack obama because it doesn't matter what's in your heart if you're not in the white house. so that's been the tension. you can kind of sort out the candidates a little bit in terms of who falls into which camp. >> ifill: briefly, ann, iowa doesn't have a great reputation for picking the winner of g.o.p. nomination processes even though it picks its winners on caucus night. how about this time? >> well, you know, nobody looks at a field as big as the iowans have to evaluate. one of the jobs they have is to tell people who don't have the stuff that perhaps they should get out of the race. sometimes we pick winners. george w. bush. sometimes we pick vice presidents. usually it's somebody who is successful. >> ifill: ann selzer polling again for us tonight. thank you so much. now joining us to discuss what to watch tonight are stewart rothenberg, a contributing

columnist at roll call and christina bellantoni who starts with us this week not a moment too soon. what are you watching for tonight? >> i'm really looking to see if the iowa republicans are as split among their sort of core as we thought that they might. you've got a situation where as judy talked about and obviously ann just talked about where they're looking for electability. then there's the anti-war faction that tends to side with ron paul. you have the evangelical vote which has been splitting but seems to be going with former senator rick santorum with this push at the end and the voters that are going based on the economy, they think that maybe romney would be the best steward of the economy, better than barack obama. are they really split or is romney really going to be able to make that case to all of these groups? >> ifill: how about you, stu? >> one, i'm looking to see whether the second-tier conservatives are simply collapsing. >> ifill: what does that mean

second-tier conservatives. >> that would include.... >> ifill: why tonight be any different. >> that would include gingrich, perry and bachmann. is support leaving them and going to presumably santorum? if it happens in big enough numbers he could not merely surge but surge to the front. that would be a significant development. at least for him if not long term. the other thing i'm looking at is this question on electability that christina mentioned. i looked at the exit polls four years ago. they asked a question: what's the most important candidate quality to you? electability was cited by 7%. only 7% of republicans. you know who won that? those republicans? 51% of them went for mitt romney. now, forward four years later. what percent of republicans in iowa who go to these caucuses say electability is the number one thing. a lot of us think it will be bigger than 7%. how big is it and does mitt romney continue to get those people. >> ifill: let's look at a map of iowa in our heads here and

say geographically which areas as we begin to watch some of these results come in tonight, which areas are you watching to see which way they go? >> i think sort of the central part of the state is really crucial for mitt romney especially because mike huckabee, the former arkansas fwof nor, was basically able to take all of that in 2008 and win the caucuses. romney won some areas in the northeast and some areas in the west. sort of the central west. ron paul won just one county in 2008. so i'm looking at some of those areas to see in that central iowa area if romney is able to capture, say, des moines that will be a pretty good indicator of where this night may go. >> romney's strength, one of his greatest areas of strength was the catholic eastern third of the state. rick santorum, a catholic conservative pro-lifer, the question is does he eat into romney's margin? romney's vote in that area? i think that will be telling. then there's the general question: whether or not mitt

romney generally broadens his support because of the electability argument and because he has been pounding away for months on what a con steferb tiff he is. he's not as if mitt romney has been running as a moderate saying i'm a moderate. he's been saying i'm a conservative. does he increase his margins even in the central part of the state among conservatives. >> ifill: culturally. you mentioned the catholics and the evangelicals. we've been talking about them in part because of the way it happened four years ago with mike huckabee. is that a significant chunk this year or are they not going to have that kind of ability to deliver? >> they've been really campaigned-to this year from mike huckabee going to the state and showing his movies from, you know, the tea party coming through and trying to galvanize that group as well. >> ifill: i heard ralph reed was there campaigning or at least appearing with rick santorum. >> i think they're definitely getting a lot of attention this year. they're being told how important they are. they tend to show up in big numbers. >> i think they're going to show up.

again as this question is, are they going to splinter? as they have been for months. or have they suddenly at the last moment maybe because of divine intervention concluded that they have to support a singing candidate and that is presumably rick santorum? that is a very important question. i don't think we can answer that now. >> ifill: we'll answer it later. here's one of the other questions which i'm curious about because people forget four years ago a lot of republicans caucused for barack obama. that helped him come from behind and beat hillary clinton in iowa. where are those voters now? >> i talked to the obama campaign earlier this evening. they are not publicly talking about what their strategy is. they don't want to communicate that to the republicans, they say. but they say that their real strength is sort of turning out more people. by turning out more people they mean turning out more hard-core democrats. >> ifill: you mean for the caucuses tonight even though there's not a competition. >> exactly. just getting people engaged they're doing a lot of this. i've delivered on my four promises that i made when i

won that speech. they're going to hear obama talk about quite a bit. they're not talking about those republicans. it would appear that perhaps they are not counting on those people returning to him come the fall 2008. i think their caucusing. >> ifill: it seems like president obama if nothing out is a great motivating factor for republicans. they want to get him out of there. >> i don't think you're going to see a lot of democrats reregistering republican just to vote in the caulk caucuses. four years ago 13% of people participating in the republican caucuses were independents. ron paul got 29%. john mccain was 23 and mitt romney got 19. does the independent number go up or down? does ron paul benefit? a lot of interesting questions. >> ifill: here's a question that's asked at this time every four years and every other state of the union. why iowa? why is it so important? so few delegates? it seems so unrepresentative why? >> this is a really great question i think for this year because you've seen the candidates actually spend less time in iowa than ever before. iowans like to say they like to meet every single candidate

multiple times. they're kicking the tires a as they like to say. if they're going to reward the candidates who didn't spend a lot of time in iowa didn't necessarily spend a lot of money in iowa until the end that's going to call.... >> ifill: that would be mitt romney. >> a lot of the candidates. gingrich didn't start campaigning there until the final last month-and-a-half. i think that it definitely is a big question there. one other thing i will point out is that romney won about 25% of the vote to come in second in the caucuses in 2008. i think that's going to be an interesting look of what percentage he might get tonight. is he breaking that floor? can he win? >> ifill: is iowa good for its launching pad potential? >> absolutely. you're right. the numbers don't justify it. 25 delegates out of about 2300 at the republican convention. and, gwen, not a single delegate will be selected tonight. that will be further down the road. why then? do we dare? i think real people are actually going to participate in the process rather than pollsters and pundits.

and so that's important. real people are involved. second of all, it's a question of momentum. the person... the people who do well here will be able to raise money. they'll get more air time. more coverage. they'll be able to gin up their campaigns. that will be good for them down the road. >> ifill: timing, timing, timing,. stu and christina we'll be talking to you all night. thank you. >> thanks. >> woodruff: we'll have more on the iowa caucuses coming up. >> woodruff: we'll have more on the iowa caucuses coming up, plus syrian spies in the u.s. but first, the other news of the day. here's kwame holman. >> holman: wall street got the new year off to a good start. stocks rallied from the opening bell, on positive economic news out of china and germany. the dow jones industrial average gained more than 179 points to close at 12,397. the nasdaq rose more than 43 points to close at 2648. the u.s. navy will continue sending warships to the persian gulf, despite threats from iran. that word came today after iran said its just-completed naval

drills could close the strait of hormuz, if the west tries to embargo iranian oil. the commander of iran's army pointed to the u.s. aircraft carrier "john c. stennis," which left the persian gulf last week. >> my opinion the enemy has gotten the message of the military sdril. we want to emphasize that we have no plan to begin any irrational act but we are ready against any threats. we warn the american warship that was previously in the persian gulf it is a threat to us and it should not return. we are not used to repeating our warnings. >> holman: in washington, a pentagon spokesman said u.s. naval deployments in the persian gulf would continue, as they have for decades. and white house spokesperson jay carney said iran's warnings show that global sanctions are hurting. >> it reflects the fact that iran is in a position of weakness. it's the latest round of iranian threats. it's confirmation that tehran

is under increasing pressure for its continued failures to live up to its international obligations. iran is isolated. and it's seeking to divert attention from its behavior and domestic problems. >> holman: iran's warnings to the west have escalated as it faces the possibility of curbs on its vital oil exports. a string of bombings struck southern afghanistan today, killing at least 13 people. three separate explosions erupted in the city of kandahar, one in the morning and the others in the evening. one of the bombs was onboard a motorcycle that blew up at a police checkpoint. four police officers and a child were among those killed. the other blasts went off within minutes of each other at a busy intersection. in egypt, prosecutors began to make their case in the trial of former president hosni mubarak. they accused him of tyranny and corruption during his decades of rule, in the first of three days of opening statements. mubarak could face the death penalty if convicted. his two sons and eight other defendants also are on trial. those are some of the day's major stories.

now, back to judy. >> woodruff: and we return to today's official kickoff of the 2012 presidential campaign. jeffrey brown takes a wider historical view. >> brown: and for that, i'm joined by presidential historians michael beschloss and richard norton smith, scholar in residence at george mason university. and with us from iowa tonight: jeff stein, vice chair of the board of trustees for the state historical society of iowa. michael, i want to pick up on something that judy and gwen reminded us of. there's a democratic caucus tonight. there's an incumbent president, a democrat. what is the incumbent normally what happens with the incumbent? they normally stay out of the action or fight for relevancy? >> well, probably the best example of a president actually gaining relevance was richard nixon running for re-election in 1972. that was the first time there was a serious iowa caucus in which george mcgovern did very well and of course new hampshire. but this stuff was almost

wiped off the air waves by richard nixon making the first visit of an american president to china. so in the evening you think that people would be noticing iowa and new hampshire, mcgovern doing very well. instead there was an hour special each evening on most of the networks for a week, you know, richard nixon at the great wall, the great hall of the people. people were not thinking very much about domestic politics, thought a lot about nixon. >> brown: michael just said 1972, the first important iowa caucus. this wasn't around forever. >> it seems that way already. >> brown: what's your thought on the incumbent now and then? >> think of jimmy carter who experienced the highs and the lows of iowa. in many ways he's the man who defined the modern iowa caucuses coming out of no where with no money, no organization to speak of in 1976. to tap into the mood post watergate mood for change. but then four years later as an incumbent facing a very tough challenge in his own

party from the left from ted kennedy. had approval ratings in the mid 30s. then along came the iranian hostage crisis which allowed carter to strike a statesman- like pose. he gained by staying out of the partisan fray. he came from behind and won convincingly. it really put him on the road to renomination in 1980. >> justify, you've... jeff, you've watched many of these things from iowa and we heard about the obama campaign team out there. what are you seeing now compared to in the past? >> not only is there the video evidence in the caucuses tonight for the obama campaign but they bought massive advertising space to the des moines register's website. the banner both sides left and right, a video ad, knowing that people are going to go to the website of the state's largest newspaper. so they're definitely trying to inject themselves. probably the best example in iowa of an incumbent injecting

themselves into a caucus was 1984. the democrats were all deciding between walter mondale and glon glenn and gary hart and ronald reagan showed up and did a live rally in des moines during the heart of the 6:00 news taking all of the air out of the democrats' effort. when the incumbent comes to iowa. >> michael, another thing we just heard about earlier in some context here, important differences in iowa then and now. one is money. right? how it's spent. how much goes to television. how much is face-to-face campaigning. >> well just to give you an idea i was talking this afternoon to jerry who is now a great film maker but did jimmy carter's media in 1976. he says they spent in iowa or they spent last than $100,000 which, you know, in current dollars would be maybe about a tenth of what mitt romney's campaign and super pac have spent this time. he also said in those days iowans were much less sophisticated about tv because

they hadn't gone through it before. polls were finding out that they were saying great things about carter. and they would ask the people, you know, why do you think this? they'd say we saw these great documentaries on tv. they didn't realize that these were paid tigsments. >> brown: richard, do you see other changes? >> huge changes. this is not your grandmother's iowa caucus. the field itself, you know, the voters will decide what they think about them qualitatively but in terms of the arguments they're making, this is a much less diverse field. you used to have, for example, typically a main street conservative. >> brown: you mean the candidates themselves. >> exactly. then you had economic conservatives like jack kemp or steve forbes who really influenced the debate with ideas like the flat tax. you had moderates, self-professed like alexander or george h.w.bush who famously beat ronald reagan in 1980. they're gone. basically every person with the exception of ron paul in

this field is trying to appeal to the social conservatives. it's a much narrower range of debate itself. >> brown: jeff, does it feel that way to you there? >> well, one thing to understand is that there are more registered independents in iowa than either democrats or republicans. i think what you're seeing in iowa is a sense that the voters are just tired of either side. so more and more of them are rushing to the middle. so that means that on the democratic caucus you're going to have partisan who are much further to the left of the spectrum. on the republican side those who skew much more to the right of the spectrum. >> brown: jeff, what about the money question that michael beschloss brought up, how it's spent, how much goes into television advertising, for example? >> there has been about $6 million spent in television advertising in the last 50 to 60 days in the state of iowa by candidates and their super

pacs, but the other thing to note is the use of the internet. you can put a longer, much nastier ad on the internet and really stir up your own base. that has led to a further divisiveness within the candidates and the population of voters themselves. >> brown: richard, you were on the program last week when we were talking about this why iowa question and how important is it? what about the results going forward? i mean, has that changed and do you think that's changed if terms of its impact? >> i'm not sure. it's interesting. we'll seal increasingly iowa has been about sending a message rather than choosing a nominee or let alone a president. >> brown: a message as in? >> a rick santorum, for example, or aaron paul were to win tonight as opposed to mitt romney whose basic argument we heard add nause yum is i can win in the fall. if winning in the fall is less important than asserting one's

faith, political and otherwise, in the spring, that tells you a lot about the process. >> brown: what do we think we can say or not say about iowa's impact now? >> i think the process has actually worked very well. a number number of candidates on the republican side have seemed to have weaknesses but that's what the process is supposed to do. these people are being road test for the first time. often times they look very different as candidates in a presidential campaign than they seemed to look before they ran. >> brown: jeff, you joined us in that conversation last week. i think know you think it has a lot of relevance. what do you look for tonight in terms of results that will tell you whether this has an impact going forward? >> well, it's going to have an impact going forward because it's first. the question is, how do people interpret the results? i do think if ron paul wins it shows you a great dissatisfaction by the

population not anger but dissatisfaction with the status quo. if mitt romney wins then it does show that the modus operandi for the republicans this time is to win and then worry about how to govern. not so much about ideology but simply getting rid of an incumbent. the republicans i talked to, that's job one for them. i think that's why romney surprisingly is doing as well in iowa as he is. >> brown: all right. jeff stein, richard north and smith, michael beschloss, thanks a lot. >> thank you. >> ifill: next, the crackdown on syrian dissidents, this time in the united states. while the death toll in syria has now climbed over 5,000, another sinister side of the struggle is playing out right here at home. hari sreenivasan reports.

>> sreenivasan: it a se anthem filled with meaning for syrian- american virtuoso. among the words to his composition entitled "my homeland." when will i see you free? he played it before hundreds protesting outside the white house this summer against the regime of al assad and in support of the uprising. though he says the song intends a global message, his appearance and his performance may have almost cost his parents their lives back home in damascus. >> when i phoned the white... when i performed at the white house, a few hours later the syrian security forces of that regime attacked my parents. here's a regime who couldn't stand a five-minute song. >> sreenivasan: did you expect them to go after your parents? >> yes. i actually warned my parents. i'm going to be performing.

watch out. >> sreenivasan: his 73-year-old father and his 66-year-old mother were attacked in their damascus home in late july. an assault documented with photos and video a short time later. >> thank god they have didn't kill them. they handcuffed his hands. they made him watch my mom being beaten. >> sreenivasan: he had tape placed over his mouth. handcuffed. beaten. >> that's my dad. that's my mom after the attack. >> sreenivasan: she's bleeding from her eye and her head. >> you can see her neck too. >> sreenivasan: shortly after the attack, his parents were granted emergency visas to be with their son here in the u.s. he's convinced it was not random thuggery or even regime loyalists but an attack orchestrated by the security forces of assad. he contends that the attackers acted on information gathered here in the united states. he has feared for his own safety here and perhaps with

good reason. he's received threatening phone calls and his own website was hacked in mid december by the syrian electronic army which plastered a menacing message across the page. how do you know that your parents were targeted because of what you did in washington? >> when they were beating my mom she was screaming, why are you killing me? why are you hitting me? they said we're doing this to teach you a lesson: because your son is demonstrating against us. i have no doubt in my mind that there's a group of people who are surveiling, monitoring, the syrian-american community. and it's managed by the syrian embassy in washington. >> sreenivasan: that's a charge the syrian government categorically denies. but it's not just syrian expatriates making that allegation. in mid october the f.b.i. arrested mohammed sewey, a naturalized citizen from syria and a former car salesman in northern virginia. among the charges leveled in the indictment, that he was acting as an agent of the

syrian national intelligence service. the indictment alleges he was actively spying on the expatriate community here and passing information back to syria where relatives of u.s.-based protestors would then be threatened or killed. prosecutors say he had protests videotaped for delivery to syrian agents. the u.s. attorney for the eastern district of virginia, based in alexandria. his office is prosecuting the case. >> if you go through the indictment it lays out in detail act after act after act of him engaging in conduct in which he's trying to conceal, hide or misrepresent the fact that he's an operative for syrian intelligence. he's directing other people to make recordings of dissidents and protestors and then providing that information back to the syrian government. >> hello. >> sreenivasan: part of the foundation of that case was built on wire-tapped conversations he had in arabic

with his wife. and with an f.b.i. informant. his defenders say the government has misunderstood the tone and content of the nine conversations. and mistranslated similarly harmless expressions unique to syrian arabic. but mcbride says there are other parts of the case that link the man to the assad regime. >> at a time of immense civil unrest in syria, the president takes time to meet personally with this man. he has access to the syrian ambassador here in the united states. he has access to high-level members of the syrian intelligence agency. >> sreenivasan: his trial is set for may. he is jailed without bail now, though he freely admits he's an assad supporter his family and associates say he wouldn't risk his and his wife and children's livelihoods here. they insist he's innocent. he expressed a desire to be interviewed by the newshour but our requests were denied by the authorities who hold him.

his public defender also declined to speak on the record. the syrian embassy in washington d.c. has repeatedly refused newshour requests for an on-camera interview with either the ambassador or a top aide on this matter. and whether the syrian government is running agents in the united states. but in a statement they did say there have been concerted efforts recently by individuals and the media to spread lies and distortions regarding the embassy of syria. these proceed post russ allegations claim that the embassy is involved in targeting or intimidating syrian expatriates in the u.s. which is absolutely untrue. the syrian-american community is divided between support for the uprising and for the assad regime. at a syrian orthodox church outside washington, not a single parishoner wanted to talk about their homeland. the congregation's pastor struck a careful middle ground. >> we are with those people who ask rightly for their

rights. they want it in the right way going on the streets, demonstrating peacefully but not for those people who.... >> sreenivasan: only 10% of syria is christian. the assad regime has allowed them to practice and even attain high rank in the syrian government. some syrian christians are cautious to take sides in the uprising. that caution has been reinforced by the recent travails of christians in egypt has islamists come to the fore. the pastor says no one is without blame in syria. and every side is spreading its own misinformation. >> everyone is engaging in propaganda constantly: the government and the opposition. everyone. the church is even engaged in propaganda. everyone for his political point of view and how he sees what is good for the country. >> sreenivasan: he says he has heard the rumors of the presence of the secret intelligence in the united states but he believes the

syrian government when it says they have nothing to do with it. >> i have heard it on the news. i have gone to the syrian embassy in d.c. and the statement posted over there that the embassy says has nothing to do with this. its never recruited anyone to work for it. who is american and who lives in the u.s. >> sreenivasan: those denials meant little at a recent meeting of the syrian-american council outside washington. speaker after speaker denounced the damascus regime, speaking and singing of a syria without assad. many told the stories of family harassed, assaulted or worse allegedly because of actions taken by their family members here in u.s. this person is from michigan. she did not want her last name used for reasons that will become apparent. her father who left syria 40 years ago was marching outside the syrian embassy this past spring when the ambassador invited him and others in to talk.

>> he gave his first name, last name, where he was from. i got a text from my sister saying isn't this crazy? they just came to my uncle's house and asked what's your brother? >> sreenivasan: another uncle hers died from a brutal beating security forces meted out when they came to arrest one of his sons. she told us that ten cousins were also rounded up, tortured and beaten. she said if she thought it would make a difference to her family's safety she would stop protesting. >> you know, they're everywhere in the syrian community. i'm certain that there's surveillance. to me that won't stop. the wall of fear is down. >> sreenivasan: whether any part of that wall was ever built here will be a key issue when the man is brought to trial next spring. >> ifill: >> ifill: on our web site, we want to hear from syrian- americans who believe they or their family members have been intimidated by agents of the assad regime, and its supporters. you can submit your information

confidentially at newshour.pbs.org. >> woodruff: and in a return to the night's big political story, the iowa caucuses, shields and brooks are here with me in the studios of iowa public television just outside des moines. that's syndicated columnist mark shields and "new york times" columnist david brooks. good to have you with us here in iowa. david, we've been watching these candidates throughout the campaign. tonight the voters are finally going to weigh in. let's look back at what we've learned about these, in iowa, five men and one woman. what have we learned about them over the course of this campaign? >> the big story is it's much more likely that mitt romney could get the nomination. rick perry annuity gingrich were the challengers and they have not done so well. mitt romney is still very

likely. the microstory is rick santorum's rise. i think that's a big story. it's partly because there have been a lot of social conservatives here. they've been looking and time is up. they have to make a decision. going to the des moines register polls they've gone with santorum. the second thing is he's not only getting with social conservatives but to go a lot better with people without high school degrees who make up the majority of the electorate among republicans. mitt romney has had trouble with those people. santorum hits them on the social issues but also on the economic issues. i'm not a corporate conservative. more active role for government enhancing manufacturing jobs and things like that. his big job tonight is to show i'm not just about abortion. i'm about... i've got this populist economic message i'm selling to. >> woodruff: i asked you about all these candidates because there are a lot of would have, should have, could have that people are talking about. if rick perry's campaign had been a different campaign, if he had been a different

candidate we'd be talking about something very different tonight. >> no question, judy. that's one the wonderful thing that mirbal beschloss used the term road tested in iowa. it's the place where candidates are road tested. they're examined. i mean, the iowa voters are as welcoming and open as any people on the planet. but they do ask tough questions. they do make harsh judgments. rick perry, he's a very effective candidate campaigning retail. that is, meeting people in small groups. he's quite affable and gregarious but he just died in public forums. the idea of newt gingrich at this point the least... he's considered the least knowledgeable cdidate.... >> woodruff: perry you mean. >> while newt is considered the most knowledgeable but now it's up to almost a third of republicans said they would not vote for newt gingrich if he's the nominee.

that's a consequence of three-and-a-half to four million dollars of negative commercials and advertising against him. but i think that the sleeper story here is iowa always winnows out as well as winnows in people. that's ron paul. ron paul is leading among independents 2 to 1. >> woodruff: are they going to be voting? >> that's the question. that's the thing i think i'm looking for tonight is the size of the turnout. if the turnout is dramatically big with 119,000 republicans voting, participating in 2008 which was a record. since 1980. if you start to see that go up, that's probably independents. that's probably people coming in who haven't been republican activists in the past and it's probably ron paul. you see the ron paul crowd. it's like an old-time democratic crowd. a lot of low income people, a lot of young people and old people. some yuppies. it's a very eclectic group. >> woodruff: we remember that term. david, what about the

independent voter? we are so focused covering this, these caucuses on the republican party. we've made some mention of the democrats but there is a big chunk of the electorate in the state self-identified independents. >> the romney people think that's their people. the romney people feel that's their people. a lot of them, it's important to remember that they still could be won over. a lot of people going to these caucuses and each candidate has a speaker. a lot of people sometimes as much as 30% are still to be won over. those people i suppose especially. that's also worth emphasizing because there are two events here. there's the results which you'll learn about. then there's the speeches after the results which is are even more important. barack obama after the iowa caulk caucuses really got to broadcast. you get to tell the country what just happened. jimmy carter did not win the iowa caucus in 1976. walter mondale got 49% but gary hart got 16% somehow turned that into a victory. by how he sold it.

with the candidates they'll have their biggest audiences especially the top three. that's really the second big crucial event here. >> woodruff: mark, are the candidates talking in this campaign about what the voters want to hear about? is there a match, do you think? >> well, i'll tell you this, judy. i'm not sure. i'm really not. but david... to david's point about rick santorum appeal to go the evangelical, the born- again evangelical. they were 60% of the electorate last time. they're down to 30% this time. that in part is the religious and moral issues are not no longer considered but they aren't as central as the even though.... >> woodruff: the economy has overtaken it. >> the economy is dominant even though iowa's unemployment rate is three points below that of the nation. it remains so. the candidate with the most consistent economic message or emphasizing economic credentials certainly has been

mitt romney. i'll be fascinated by what he says tonight because i can remember that george herbert walker bush when he won here in 1980 and upset ronald reagan the favorite said i have big mo. that meant nothing to voters. he was talking about his campaign. david is absolutely right. that's a key moment tonight. what does rick santorum say? he's introducing himself to the nation tonight with what he says. they have to be careful. if they go after ron paul, if mitt romney goes after ron paul, which he hasn't done. he's been very careful not to. they're running the risk are of a third party. nobody thinks that a third party challenge led by ron paul is going to do anything except re-elect president obama. >> woodruff: david, i'm throwing out the questions that have occurred to me as i'm listening to you. are these the same candidates they were when they started campaigning in iowa? i mean, have they modified what they are talking about? >> ritate romney is the same. he's cruising. don't embarrass myself. don't commit to anything i'm going to regret in the fall.

he's stayed very disciplined. rick santorum is is nine times better. just much cheerier, occasionally tells jokes. i went to a buchblg of his events. having having seen him campaign in pennsylvania a much better candidate. he was here a lot. 370 town hall meetings will do that to you. he's been the big improver. i would say ron paul doesn't really change. he's going to give a speech to himself in a room or to a thousand people. he hasn't changed but i think what they have discover,, you can tell they react to heads nodding. one of the things you see when heads are nodding, when people tie the economic issue to values issues, when they talk about the country losing its work ethic, losing its sense of responsibility, when they say the economy is not only about the recession, the financial crisis but a sense that america has lost some value, economic values, that's what i see them all gravitating to. so they do respond to those nodding heads. >> this is where david and i disagree. what i think the country is always looking for is an upbeat conservative s.

and there are two kinds of conservatives, judy. those who view the world at five minutes to midnight that things are bad and they're going to get worse which i've heard more from santorum than you have heard. the five minutes to sunrise conservative. things are bad but together we can make things better. that was ronald reagan. that was jack kemp. that was mike huckabee. and i don't think anybody has grabbed that mantle. >> i would say the tenor of the electorate has changed dramatically from four years. it's much darker. much more pessimistic. maybe they're reacting the that. as a political analysis, being optimistic is rarely a bad thing. >> woodruff: michele bachmann did win the iowa straw poll some months ago. she was on the rise. are the polls showing, david, her support has just all bull disappeared. yet she's been out there. hit all 99 counties. what happened to her campaign? >> people looked at her and for whatever reason there was no big event but they decided not quite ready to be president. she's had some very humbling

events where very few people have showed up. there's still the press gang around here. the crucial thing is she said she's going on. the lesson of newt gingrich's career is never drop out. because you never know what's going to happen. that also is good for mitt romney because all the anti-romneys will still be around apparently in new hampshire and south carolina. >> woodruff: there mayate no be the winnowing out. we'll have a chance to talk about that. >> there will be, judy. >> woodruff: okay. there will be. there won't be. you'll have a chance to have another word on this tonight. mark shields, david brooks, thank you both. gwen. >> ifill: judy, i'm curious about one thing. you have covered many of these caucuses. you have been to the actual caucus. >> woodruff: don't say how much. >> ifill: i won't ask that. they're different from going to the polling place and dropping a ballot in the box. what are they like? >> woodruff: i will tell you i've covered ten of these caucuses going back to 1976. what makes them different, gwen, is that voters are putting themselves on the line. they're going out among their friends in some cases neighbors. these may be people they know

or people they don't know very well but they are publicly in some instances, many instances, declaring what their political views are. as we know in our society that's often something that people often typically something people keep private. iowans are very proud of the role they play in the american political process. that is something that has not changed since 1976 when i started covering the iowa caucuses. they feel that responsibility. they feel that connection. as american citizens. they take it seriously. they don't mind being out in public and going out to the local school house or the firehouse or wherever that caucus may be. so that's something very special about this date. it's one of the reasons i always look forward to coming back here. >> ifill: you're going to be off to a couple caucuses yourself tonight. >> woodruff: i surely am. as you know we're in iowa public television here. actually in johnston iowa not far from des moines. i'm going to be going to one of the caucuses at the

johnston high school. so we can report on that later tonight. >> ifill: we'll be wait to go hear all about that. judy woodruff for us in iowa tonight. thanks so much. >> woodruff: great. >> ifill: again, the major developments of the day. it was countdown to caucus night in iowa, as the republican presidential candidates made final appeals for the first votes of the 2012 nominating season. wall street got the new year off to a good start, thanks to encouraging economic reports from germany and china. the dow industrials gained more than 179 points. and the u.s. navy said it will continue sending warships to the persian gulf, despite iran's warnings to stay away. follow the iowa caucuses online. kwame holman explains. kwame? >> holman: there's a viewer's guide to our online coverage including an interactive map where we'll show results later

on the rundown blog. our team in iowa filed a video dispatch on the occupy movement in des moines and interviewed people there. plus, on our politics page, watch all our conversations with this year's g.o.p. presidential contenders, as well as a few from years past. all that and more is on our web site, newshour.pbs.org. judy? >> woodruff: and that's the newshour for tonight. on wednesday, we'll move on-- along with some of the candidates-- to the next contest in new hampshire. i'm judy woodruff. >> ifill: and i'm gwen ifill. we'll see you online, and again here for a special report on the results of the caucuses at 11:00 p.m. eastern time, and once again tomorrow evening. thank you, and good night. major funding for the pbs newshour has been provided by: >> bnsf railway. >> and by the bill and melinda gates foundation. dedicated to the idea that all people deserve the chance to

live a healthy, productive life. and with the ongoing support of these institutions and foundations. and... this program was made possible by the corporation for public broadcasting. and by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. thank you. captioning sponsored by macneil/lehrer productions captioned by media access group at wgbh access.wgbh.org