>> production assistance for "inside washington" was provided by allbritton communications and politico, reporting on the legislative, executive, and political arena. >> you would think we could get more than any-vote margin in new hampshire. >> this week on "inside washington," mitt romney speaks out a win in iowa. >> thank you so much, i want. igetsk santorum's campaign the second place finish. ron paul gets a respectable third. and in fourth place, and happy new gingrich's benninger 4 mitt romney. >> -- gunning mitt romney.

>> it is amazing that the news media continues to say that he is electable. >> we are headed to new hampshire and then south carolina. captioned by the national captioning institute --www.ncicap.org-- >> not since jimmy carter second in 1976 has there been so much excitement about t he iowa caucuses. rick santorum had every right to take a victory lap tuesday night. nobody has ever worked harder. two weeks ago he was a long shot. ron paul -- hats off to him for bringing in younger voters. newt gingrich and rick perry -- gingrich is fuming and it may perry has decided south carolina is nice this time of year.

is the santorum in for the long haul? >> i think he could be. we have had pretenders' crash and burn. he is a ticket, experienced, knowledgeable -- he is articulate, experienced, knowledgeable. he was written off because in 2006, he lost by a huge margin and had not been in public life since. he has shown that you can resurrect yourself in iowa, like jimmy carter had done in 1976. he is the most plausible challenger. >> what do you think, colby? can santorum not run off the track? >> he will have a hard time doing that. he has the enmity of the john mccain. john mccain really has a thing about rick santorum. in that losing campaign, responding to isantorum's

request for help, and then in 2008, going after john mccain and a big way, not just endorsing mitt romney, but attacking john mccain in the most temperamental why. mccain went down to south carolina to poke it santorum. >> evan? >> i don't think it santorum can win. this was fun, but i think charles wrote a column in "the washington post" on friday that sounded pretty due to fall to me -- dutiful to me. he is kind of possible, and not really plausible but there is this kind of kabuki here. >> i am with evan. he could theoretically it knock off romney if the conservatives coalesce around him. but at the moment, that does not look like that is going to

happen. if he got the nomination, obama would win quite easily. >> a few minutes ago, mark shields, who is in iowa for the caucuses, sat in front of the camera for us. i asked him what we learn from iowa. >> we learned that every vote does count. beyond that, we learned that rick santorum, with his election night speech, was able to establish in. that has been lacking and his campaign, and that was that he was the product not of power but oa grandson of an italian immigrant coal miner who lived in a country town in a shack. he drew in rather stark line between himself and the background of mitt romney without ever once naming romney. it was quite moving, too. >> if you are more interested in a candidate who can defeat barack obama, mitt romney is

your man, right? >> absolutely. his card remains electability. credentials, experience, background and achievements and electability. >> what happened to newt gingrich? he blames the super pac pro- romney ads. >> 45% of every dollar spent on television in iowa was spent attacking newt gingrich. think about that. that is an amazing figure. newt gives a lot of material. >> we'll talk more about newt gingrich later. first, santorum's speech tuesday night stirred the blood. good stuff. romney says, "i am confident, i am not obama, a vote for me." that does not stir the blood. >> he will try to put it signed into it, but santorum is a social conservative who cannot lord obama. enough republicans will figure

that out -- who cannot beat obama. enough republicans will figure that out. >> there is a schism in the republican party between business conservatives and social conservatives. romney is the business conservatives. what is the clinton line about republicans? they fall in lien. -- in line. that is what you see happening, and the establishment is falling in line for romney. it is not going to be a cakewalk, but i don't quite see -- there isn't an alternative that really works. even money is coming in now to center on, but is late -- to santorum but it is late. >> but it is not too late to derail mitt romney. this is going to be a long slog. it is all about getting delegates, not just winning primaries. there is a very strong, strong anti-romney feeling in the

republican party that is going to manifest itself. >> he cannot seem to get past the 25%. >> if you compare the votes he got in iowa in 2012 with what he got in 2008, the difference is six votes. not 6%. essentially, exactly the same support four years ago. > he didn't go -- he almost didn't go to iowa -- >> the line is that republicans don't fall in love, they fall in line. >> when i say that santorum is plausible, i don't mean he as much of a chance of beating rodney. he has a path, but it is unlikely. he comes in second in new hampshire, does really well in south carolina, all the others dropped out, perrys and newts

dropped out, and then it is one- on-one. he does not have organization or money. unlike cain or perry or bachmann or even in gingrich, santorum has experience and background -- stability, if you like -- of somebody who could be a president -- >> whoa, whoa, whoa, "new york times," front page, he is part of the pay for play culture of washington. he was very close to lobbyists. he tried to get lobbyists -- jobs for republican lobbyists, part of that tom delay's k street strategy. when he got out of office, he got a whole lot of money from medical people because of earmarks. once you start taking over his record, he looks like a creature of washington. >> he got some tea party support, but he is not a small government republican. >> that is what i wrote to this

morning. he has got his weaknesses, especially among the republican constituency, because in 2010, it was a year of republicans insisting on small government and betting against obama's overstretched. santorum is not a small government republican. but i am saying that in terms of just -- >> lobbyists -- >> comparing him with the other pretenders, he is a guy who stands -- >> he is the last man standing here. >> newt gingrich is standing, but not very tall, i guess. newt gingrich on getting even. >> i want to congratulate a good friend of ours, somebody who we admire and whose family we admire, and that is a rick santorum, who waged a great, positive campaign. i admire the courage, discipline, the way he focused. i admired how positive it was. i wish i could say that for all the candidates. >> he wishes he could say that

i'm mitt romney, who the former speaker says is a liar. the enemy of my enemy is my friend, evan. >> this is not the best newt. i like happy newt. the angry, a petulant newt is not the best figure. >> i love the petulant newt because it is a great copy but when you see them as human beings and not automatons, it is interesting phenomenon. >> he argues it is this super pac money that brought him down. >> no question about it. the super pac money from ron paul, a pac -- too, but you have to think the romney many -- >> you see the spending overlaid on it, you see his downfall directly attributable to negative --

>> ronnie had something to work with. >> oh, yeah. >> the $126 million that he got from a fan or freddie, i forget which one it was -- >> the most effective ad was from ron paul. it was called "serial hypocrisy's." it ran in iowa over and over again. newt shot up in the polls because of his record in history in the 1990's, but there were elements that were not generally known. i do this for a living, and i did not know about in nancy pelosi ad until a few weeks ago bit when i saw it, i was surprised. i had not known about his connection with freddie mac's. it came up the first time that one of the debates. that was the first i heard of it. if you are a voter in iowa and you hear about newt running and

you remember what he did in 1994, it would be inclined to support him. did you learn about this, hammered home in the ads, and those two elements were the most important. >> bloomberg news reports that romney's 8-vote margin -- $75.44 a vote. rick santorum, $10.12 a vote. rick perry, $218.65 evoked. [laughter] >> what about john connally? $17 million? one delegate. >> i think the unkindest cut gingrich received it was not from romney but from the establishment that took him down. let me define the astonishment -- republicans inside it the beltway, those who served with him. they really went after him.

some colonists, also -- some columnists, also. he is not going to forget this. that projection is going to bother him take it goes beyond new hampshire. he is going to teach those folks lesson. he is going to teach them a lesson in a way they will experience it at the polls. >> the reason perry stay in is because there is still this angry, white, middle-class male force, this seating force, and romney is not released their guy -- not really their guy. santorum for the moment. that is a force to be tapped, and nobody has figured. out how to. >> if you read the speech santorum made tuesday night, he talks about this appeal, how hard work paid off for him, how his grandfather taught him the

value of it -- >> but, you know, you have to think about santorum in iowa last sunday when he talked about entitlements, "i know what to make black people's lives better by giving them someone else's money," the suggestion that black people are just shiftless, lazy unlike the hard-working people, the white people. the statistics blow his pieces out of the water as to who is getting entitlements and it was not good at handling he did in sioux city is going to haunt him. >> well, except the pandering works, and are angry, white middle-class males out there. >> we have to go back to our friend mark shields in new hampshire. >> new hampshire can turn on a dime, and new hampshire voters do not like coronations. they don't expect to be part of

a coronation . one of the people who is under the gun, this is his last chance, is jon huntsman. he put all of his eggs in this basket. we have two debates back to back this weekend. this is the last chance that many candidates realized they have to make the case that alley for themselves, but against the leader. >> romney as my head in new hampshire, but as mark said, new hampshire is a quirky place that doesn't like coronations. as to both george bush -- ask both george bushes -- >> or hillary. >> you can still win by losing or lose by winning, like lyndon johnson, or bush and buchanan in 1992. bush was second but when a moral victory take it depends on the margin between romney and

whoever is second. if it is santorum and it is within at single digits, it will be seen as a santorum victory. >> tsongas, the comeback kid -- >> it is all about expectations and the margin. it is not necessarily the order of finish. except that santorum has to show that he can beat ron paul at all the others. >> you wonder about the ron paul factor. apparently, this is ron paul territory, but he has not done that much up there. >> the realclearpolitics poll, ron paul is picking up in new hampshire. >> the independent vote in new hampshire -- >> and declared -- undeclared. >> in iowa, they went heavily

for ron paul. one-day republicans. >> republican elders are being very nice to ron paul these days. they are praying he does not run as an independent. >> he is the sort of like at jesse jackson in 1984. he has a constituency, a strong one in the party. not going to win the nomination, but he could end out in tampa with a strong number of delegates. he will demand respect, perhaps a speech. >> he will demand more than that. >> platform? that is going to be a problem for the republican " establishment"-- >> i don't know how you can accomplish that. >> do we have to have a meeting and decide -- [laughter] everybody brings a lamb, except karl rove, who brings the

incense. lots of chanting. you would enjoy it. [laughter] >> i gather that jon huntsman would not be allowed. >> depends on new hampshire. we like winners. >> you look at those polls, he is way down. after all the work he has put in. >> it is hard to know what his narrative, his story, what his appeal is. that is the issue. what is on an offering? until he can answer that in essex and -- what is huntsman offering? until he can answer that in -- >> "the boston globe" found -- >> that is not a recommendation for republicans in new hampshire. >> he is an honorable guy but he looks like a rich kid. he needed to say from the very beginning that i would be different and he did not do that. >> we did not hear about mitt romney's religion. was that a factor?

>> absolutely bad polls show that a lot of evangelical christians -- absolutely. a lot of polls show that evangelical christians think it is a cult. >> this past week was the first time i've seen some of that in my e-mail box. it may be there, but it wasn't over. -- overt. >> it will be a factor in new hampshire. >> it could be in south carolina. >> absolutely. >> is there a way to find a romney stopper? >> i am excited to get out with a real republicans -- not that there aren't real republicans in iowa, but it was a loose the pc process and you had a lot of people that admitted they were democrats voting in caucuses last night. >> rick perry says he will stay in their eyes, looking fondly on

south carolina, is kind of folks, he thinks. i call your attention to a piece by jonathan martin in wednesday's politico. "the consensus republican candidate, looking for a romney stopper." is that person rick santorum? >> this idea of a conspiracy, meetings and all that, it is amusing and people feel self important. in the end, it will have no effect. >> are you going? >> no. [laughter] i stick to one conspiracy at a time. i'm with the washington masonic establishment, and that is it. that is my membership. [laughter] the point is this -- perry had his chance in iowa, had his chance in the debates. the most memorable thing he uttered was "oops."

with the south carolina, i am not sure what is going other than that he has a lot of money and some hope. it looks as if there is going to be a consensus candidate who will oppose romney, then it would be santorum. it is hard to imagine anybody else imaging right now. >> we had take this week when santorum was talking by john f. kennedy, the meeting with baptist ministers, and he said that when he read, it made him want to throw up. that is the kind of tape that will not play well for santorum. >> colby? >> in addition to the "oops" line, there was his line on the sunday talk show where his campaign had a lot of bombs an8 -- bumps and grinds along the way. [laughter] >> there is really know what you can beat him in.

that is the reality. >> they keep searching and searching. >> daniels on the bench, paul ryan sitting on the bench, chris christie did there is a strong republican establishment, but they are not running. >> we did a whole program without talking about president obama yet. $500 billion in cuts from the pentagon, a leaner, meaner, more agile force, iran is fooling around with the strait of hormuz, and recess appointments. let's start with the new military the president is talking about, evan. >> you can cut an awful lot, but they are dodging the big question -- are they going to go after the big ticket pieces of hardware? they are talking about "we will not fight two wars." that is an academic exercise any way. the question is will we cut bait, useless cold war pieces of art where --

>> such as? >> and did these vehicles so that marines can hit the beaches, which they have not done since 1991944 -- >> you never now. >> do we need another carrier? that is where the money is ted . they are not talking about. >> even in the bush administration -- not whenever, but most of the time when they tried to cut a big piece of hardware, they got such opposition from the meps senior people in their own party in congress -- from a very senior people in their own party in congress who had building elements in their district or state. >> the main a thing in this new strategy is maintaining supremacy on the seas and in the air. as long as that is part of our strategy, we are ok.

this was a military-driven exercise, not just a political exercise for the white house. you had a lot of senior military officers, and the criticism from republican candidates is just manufactured. >> i don't think so at all. this is not about pieces of hardware. this is about a reduction in our capacity to fight on of the land. i know that obama says the war in iraq is over, and he essentially an ounce the war in afghanistan is going to be over in two years. nobody wants a war in iran or asia or anywhere. but it is not what you want, is one they can you. we had 9/11, and we had the invasion of kuwait, which came out of nowhere, and we needed half a million americans and we succeeded in kuwait. the total strength of the army will be less than the number of tubes we had in kuwait in 1991.

if you imagine that the arabs and the gulf are not looking around and thinking america is sick of any involvement and is reducing its capacity, website are we going to go with? who are we going to talk to? -- what side are we going to go with? , are we going to talk to? i can see the saudis dialing up the pakistanis -- you have a bomb, send us a dozen. >> we have enormous treasure and humanity in that part of the world and the way it has turned out is not terribly good, even in afghanistan which was justified and we should get it done initially. it is just sucking our blood. >> the question is now deciding to go here or there. the question is are you going to have any capacity to ever engaged in the crowd if you shrink the way we do? the answer is probably going to be no. >> it always was down to the soldier or -- >> whoa, whoa, we're not talking

about eliminating the army, we're talking about cutting it by 20%. >> to the point where a would not be able to sustain kuwait in 1991. >> if we were in this situation you are talking about, two wars -- >> i see no evidence that we cannot fight a long war. i see no evidence of that . >> i suspect this debate is going to continue for months, maybe years. last word. see you next week.