captioning sponsored by macneil/lehrer productions >> ifill: mitt romney was confident and newt gingrich defiant as florida republicans cast ballots in today's winner take all primary. good evening. i'm gwen ifill. >> woodruff: and i'm judy woodruff. on the newshour tonight, we get the latest on the battle for 50 delegates in the sunshine state, and we talk with its junior senator, marco rubio. >> ifill: then ray suarez interviews susan rice, u.s. ambassador to the united nations, about the security council resolution calling for syria's leader to step down. >> woodruff: from germany, margaret warner reports on reaction to the european union's fiscal discipline deal. >> ifill: as florida votes, jeffrey brown examines the foreclosure crisis that has depressed housing prices there and around the country. >> woodruff: and we close with more on the political campaign from mark shields and david brooks.

>> ifill: that's all ahead on tonight's newshour. major funding for the pbs newshour has been provided by: moving our economy for 160 years. bnsf, the engine that connects us. >> and by the alfred p. sloan foundation. supporting science, technology, and improved economic performance and financial literacy in the 21st century. and with the ongoing support of these institutions and foundations.

and... this program was made possible by the corporation for public broadcasting. and by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. thank you. >> woodruff: the republican presidential race in florida came to a close today after a rough-and-tumble ten days. it boiled down to a two-man race, and attacks on the stump and a blitzkrieg of broadcast ads raged on to the very end. at stake: a trove of 50 delegates, and momentum heading into february. republicans predicted a record turnout in florida, more than two million voters. and mitt romney hoped for a decisive victory. >> i'm mitt romney. how are you this morning. >> woodruff: romney started his day greeting volunteers and phoning voters from his headquarters in tampa. the former massachusetts governor's appeal for support

won over those like bill dunn of jupiter. >> i think there's been a lot of, you know, bad stuff going on with how they go at their campaigning, but as far as getting our country back on track i think this guy can handle it. both inside the belt way and outside in the real world where you and i are standing right now. >> woodruff: other voters also complained about the sharply negative tone of the florida fight between romney annuity gingrich. >> we need mitt! >> woodruff: but romney made clear today he's not backing down. >> if you're attacked i'm not just going to sit back. i'm going to fight back and fight back hard. you really can't whan about negative campaigning when he launched a very negative campaign in south carolina. when the people here in florida look at the different campaigns they concluded his was the most negative. >> woodruff: the former house speaker vowed to continue the fight. no matter the outcome in florida. >> this is a long campaign.

you watch tonight. there's no clear path for romney here to georgia. >> how close to this being over. >> probably six months. i would say june or july. unless romney drops out earlier. >> woodruff: just how long it goes on could well depend on romney's ability to attract those conservatives now backing gingrich and rick santorum. i asked him about that in tampa. >> i would love to understand how it is that speaker gingrich characterizes himself as more conservative than me. i have a conservative record as the governor of massachusetts. that record is one i'm willing to stand by. >> woodruff: for his partisan tore up insisted today he's also staying in the race. the former pennsylvania senator campaigned in colorado as did texas congressman ron paul. both had evening events in nevada which holds its caucuses on saturday. >> ifill: judy, you've been all over the state all week long covering this pretty interesting field.

>> woodruff: it feels that way. >> ifill: at the end of the day now as mitt romney gets ready to claim victory or not tonight, did he have a pretty day. >> woodruff: he did. his campaign is feeling very confident. of course they don't say they're going to win by a margin. in fact today they were toning down expectations saying it could just be a few points. but it's clear they have hammered away at newt gingrich from the end of the south carolina polls or the... once the results were known last weekend, and they have not let up. in fact one of romney's people said to me today, he said, we made the mistake once of letting up on newt gingrich. we're not going to make that mistake again. you did hear him say, gwen, just a minute ago that he's going to continue and they'll worry later about the consequences. yeah, they're feeling confident. and the gingrich people are worried but deef fint. >> ifill: i read today there was one positive romney ad on

the air. and it was a radio spanish language ad. if you were a voter in florida and you're watching the debate but aside from the debates you're just watching the ads, what did you know about these two... especially these two guys? >> woodruff: you knew they were both lying in effect. them didn't always come out and use that word in the ads but that was the implication. you heard about newt gingrich, his ethical problems when he served as speaker of the house. you knew that he was on retainer as a consultant to freddie mac, the mortgage giant. with regard to governor romney, you knew... you heard of him as a massachusetts moderate or massachusetts liberal. so you got a pretty, i should say, distorted picture of the two. you didn't get a sense of where these candidates stand on the issues and maybe the voters don't expect that anymore. but it's not what they got here in florida. >> ifill: it's interesting to hear newt gingrich say just now in that piece that you

just did that he plans to be in this for another six months unless romney drops out. what's at stake for newt gingrich after a night like tonight? right now, of course, the polls are still open. we don't know what is the outcome is. we only know that the polls are showing mitt romney doing pretty well. >> woodruff: the gingrich people want that margin to be as small as possible. they do not expect to win. but they don't want to be completely embarrassed here in florida. so that's why gingrich, even today, was running negative ads against romney, doing anything they can to tighten up that margin. they know... i mean, the numbers support speaker gingrich, gwen, in that it does take more than 1100 delegates to clinch the nomination. whoever wins florida is going to come out of here with just barely 90. so a long way from it all being over. no matter how much we in the media talks about who has got the momentum, who is likely to be the nominee. the fact is it is a long road.

it will be months if not six months. it's quite some time away from knowing when this is over. >> ifill: ron paul has been in maine, rick santorum in colorado after a visit home with his family. he was campaigning today, saying santorum, that is, saying he's not going anywhere. this idea that all the conservatives will gather around mitt romney or newt gingrich, that is, is the formula. he doesn't seem to be going anywhere. is that something that anybody is acknowledging, that rick santorum is also still in this race. >> woodruff: for sure the romney camp is aware that senator santorum is still a factor. they don't expect him to overtake them but they are concerned about very conservative voters out there. they want to be... they were very upset about some of the tough language that senator santorum used in the last debate against governor romney. so that's clearly a factor.

gep, as we look at this contest, we know that one name, that any republican would have liked to have had endorse them is florida's junior senator marco rubio. he happened to be in washington today on senate business. but he stayed at a camera just long enough to talk to us just a few minutes ago. here's that interview i did with him. senator rub yo, thank you very much for talking with us. he predicted earlier today that whoever wins the florida primary is likely to be the republican party's nominee. all the polls show it's going to be governor romney. are you forecasting he's going to win the nomination? >> i think we should wait until the results come in. i certainly wouldn't underestimate speaker gingrich who has shown the ability in this campaign to come back from this... from some adversity and put on a good campaign in other states. we'll see how that plays out. florida is a microcosm of america. you know the state well. literally every major issue that confronts america that we

as republicans want our nominee to be able to confront those issues are found in florida. over the last ten days you've seen these candidates have to answer questions they didn't have to answer in some of the earlier states. i think ultimately-- i don't know how long it will take-- but if you win the florida primary especially if you win it decisively that bodes well not only to win the nomination but the general election. >> woodruff: senator today governor romney said he will continue to air negative ads and be very critical of speaker gingrich if the speaker is criticizing him. and all the surveys are showing that the vast majority of the advertising, negative advertising in this state, came out of the romney camp. do you believe that governor romney's campaign is going to need to tone it down? >> well, ultimately i don't tell people how to run their campaigns. i remind everybody that no candidate has run more negative ads in american history than barack obama in 2008 especially in the general. we're going to see more of

this down the road. i would encourage the candidates if possible, we always say that, to pivot back the their positive message. all four of our candidates have an appeal positive message that can really excite people and get them behind him. i would hope they would pivot back to that. as republicans our goal is to change the direction of our country. if they're attacking each other using the same lines of attack that the president ultimately is going to use against our nominee i think it's counterproductive. every year we talk about how we don't like the negative campaigns. every year there's more of it. that's one of the reasons i hope that this primary at the right time will come to a conclusion so we can move forward to the campaign. in the general election. >> woodruff: in just a few days that the presidential candidates have been focusing on florida, do you believe florida republican voters have gotten a fair look, a good look at where these candidates stand? >> i think florida voters have been looking at them now for about a year. i think the first debates were in the summer of 2010 if i'm not or 2011 if i'm not mistaken.

this campaign has been going on for a while. by the time they made it to florida they had a series of debates. they had been tested in iowa and new hampshire and south carolina but in florida they had to answer some specific questions. we saw more talk about immigration reform and discussions about foreign policy like we hadn't seen before much we saw talk about the western hemisphere. where else do you get that in these early states? i think we know a lot more about these candidates because they've campaigned in florida. we have a better picture of who they are and what they would do if they got the nomination and ultimately the presidency. >> woodruff: speaking of immigration, you were critical a few days ago of ads that the speaker, speaker gingrich, was running here in florida accusing governor romney of being anti-immigrant. but when you look at governor romney's position taking a much much harder line on illegal immigrants, couldn't that at least be interpreted as viewing people who come to this country from elsewhere as unwelcome? >> i think... again i don't want to get involved as a

surrogate for one campaign or the other. let me say this. both candidates, all four of our candidates have offered a strong defense of legal immigration. those are immigrants too. people all across the world that are waiting to enter there country legally. i get them in my office. they tell us that their relatives have applied and they're waiting to come in. some have been waiting as long as six, seven, eight years. they're in favor of legal immigration. i think most americans now agree that the illegal immigration problem we have is serious and that the legal immigration process we have is broken. it needs to be reformed. just because people disagree about how to reform it and how to deal with it does not make them anti-immigrant. i think that's a very strong charge to be made. that's why i was discouraged to see it in an ad. that's something i expect from the left that unfairly throws that around. >> woodruff: conversely governor romney has called speaker gingrich's position on immigration at one point he called it amnesty when what speaker gingrich is talking about, he said if a family has been here 25 years and they've been good citizens and paid

their taxes, this ought to be sort of a path to citizenship. is that a fair characterization? >> again i don't want to become a surrogate here back and forth or a referee in this race. i think speaker gingrich has offered a thoughtful idea on immigration. i'm not completely familiar with everything he's offered but i'm encouraged that we're moving in talking about that. look, we have a legal immigration process in america that's broken. it has to be modernize. there's a consensus in this country that something should be done to help young kids that were brought here at a very young age and are very high academic achievers and want to contribute to america's future or who want to serve in the military. the difficult issue is what do you do with 11 million people who are here without documents? that is difficult to confront for a lot of different reasons. it's not an easy issue. something we're going to have to continue to have a conversation about in america because my hope is immigration will become something that unifies us as a people not a source of conflict that divides us the way it has now. >> woodruff: finally, senator,

as you know very well your name has been touted time and again as a potential likely even choice to be the vice presidential running mate for whoever wins the republican presidential nomination. you've consistently said you're not interested in doing that. you want to stay in the senate. are you saying the position of vice president isn't important? >> no, it isn't... no, it is an important position. what i've said is i'm focused on my work here in the united states senate. that's where i think i can best serve the people of florida. i don't believe i'm going to be offered that position. i don't believe... i'm not going to be the vice presidential nominee. i understand people have to speculate about somebody. when they move on to other states they'll speculate about other people. ultimately though what i am committed to doing is helping our nominee with all due respect to the president who i think is a fine father and husband but i don't think he does a very good job as president. the proof is in the economic results he's gotten. we need to change direction in november. i want to do anything i can to help the nominee. i don't think it will as a vice presidential nominee. >> woodruff: senator marco

rubio, thanks very much. >> thank you. >> ifill: still to come on the newshour, the u.n. debates calling for syria's president to step down; europe's debt troubles; florida's foreclosure crisis; plus, shields and brooks. but first, with the other news of the day, here's kwame holman. >> holman: the latest estimate of the federal deficit puts it at $1.1 trillion for this fiscal year. the congressional budget office released the new number today. it's less than last year's deficit of $1.3 trillion, but up from an estimate last summer. republicans, such as senate minority leader mitch mcconnell, said it's more evidence the president's policies have failed. >> c.b.o.has indicated that we will run a trillion dollar at least deficit again, making it every single year of this administration we've had at least a trillion dollar a year deficit. it's important to remember the president got everything he wanted the first two years. we're living in the obama economy.

>> holman: at the white house, spokesman jay carney argued the president has done his part to cut spending. he said the real problem is the other side steadfastly rules out tax hikes. >> what has been lacking thus far is the way to deal with revenue in any meaningful way by the republicans. that is just not the approach that the broad base of the american public feels is is the right way to go. >> holman: the congressional budget office study said if the bush-era tax cuts were allowed to lapse, the deficits would drop sharply. consumer confidence fell in january, after two months of gains. the conference board, a business research group, blamed worries about higher gasoline prices and overall business conditions. that was enough to slow wall street some. the dow jones industrial average lost more than 20 points to close below 12,633. the nasdaq rose about two points to close above 2813. overall, the dow and the s&p 500

had their best january in 15 years. the nasdaq was up by the most in 11 years. the president moved to revive a small business tax break plan today. he said he wants congress to eliminate capital gains taxes for investments in small businesses and to grant deductions that help smaller firms grow. at a cabinet meeting, mr. obama said it was a priority for him, and one democrats and republicans have endorsed. >> my expectation and hope is that they will get a bill together quickly, that they will pass it and get it on my desk. i would like to see that bill signed this year. >> holman: the small business ideas are part of the president's budget package, to be unveiled next month. the death toll neared 60 today in a sub-zero cold wave across central and eastern europe. temperatures plunged to minus 17 degrees fahrenheit in some places. ukraine was among the hardest hit. heating centers inside tents were set up across kiev for

homeless people. the number of people being treated for frostbite also was on the rise. in poland, five people died of hypothermia in the last 24 hours alone. for the first time, americans who suffer from cystic fibrosis will have access to a drug that treats the root cause. the food and drug administration approved kalydeco today for use by 1,200 patients with a rare form of the disease. in all, about 30,000 americans have cystic fibrosis. it causes mucus buildup in the lungs and other organs and generally causes death by young adulthood. those are some of the day's major stories. now, back to judy. >> woodruff: next tonight, mounting violence in syria and a new diplomatic push to oust the european leaders attempt to european leaders attempt to tackle their fiscal woes, margaret warner is examining repercussions on the ground. tonight, she reports from stuttgart, germany. i spoke with her a short time ago. for us last night.

tonight you're in germany meeting with those or covering the meeting of those european leaders. what did they agree to in the end? >> warner: the one concrete thing they did agree to was a new kind of budgetary or fiscal pact they're calling it. some call it a treaty. 25 of the 27 members of the european union agreed in principle to this. and the idea is that they're going to have a tighter mechanism to ensure fiscal discipline on its member countries and punish those in some fashion who don't meet their obligations. so as angela merkel, the chancellor of germany, explained it to us last night, it sounded very tough. that if any country exceeds more than half a percentage of g.d.p. and an annual deficit, it can be referred by the european commission to some sort of european court of justice and some automatic fines will go into effect. but today as people have looked at it more closely, there are a lot of caveats. it's not clear how airtight the mechanism is. the final language hasn't been

written or finalized and won't be signed until march. secondly, even though these e.u. leaders, most of them agreed to it last night, even if most of them come back in march and sign it, it has to be ratified by at least 12 e.u. member parliaments. so there's a lot to be done between what happened last night and this coming into effect. >> ifill: angle merckel as you mentioned was the driving force behind this agreement. you're now in germany tonight. how is it being received away from these inner sanctums where the leaders meet? >> warner: gwen, we came here to germany and we're going to italy next week to try to understand why this euro crisis is so hard to resolve when we have a flavor of that today. first of all, the opposition parties, all the opposition parties immediately were critical saying as they have throughout this crisis that she's trying to drive europe into the kind of austerity measures that will just starve europe of growth. then we went down, we were actually south of stuttgart going to this very, very productive manufacturing area,

and the few kind of ordinary germans we talked to, they liked her tough talk. because she is expressing their values. german values. which is you don't take on debt you can't pay. so, for instance, we were at this factory that makes gigantic tunnel-boring equipment. i was talk to go the work site manager, a man with a 10th grade education. he was pointing to this big piece of machinery they were about to ship to spain. he said the euro has been very good for us. but he said, "greece, that's a problem." i said, "do you think that germany is the wealthiest countries in the e.u. and other wealthy countries need to rescue the countries that have a hard time." "he said no but what can we do? if we don't and if greece goes, as he said, meaning default, he said, then will spain and portugal fall? he got the whole connection. he said that would be very bad for us.

he said we in europe need to have a strong, united europe to compete against the united states, he said, and china. he said, so we really can't afford to have the euro come apart. but he did say about merckel. he said he liked the way she talked. he said, i think that the other leaders respect her. her personal popularity ratings are in fact off the charts, higher than her party's. >> ifill: margaret, you mentioned the big elephant in the room is is greece and who will be able to fix that or turn that around which was not resolved in brussels. i wonder whether it even matters because there have been rules in place against what happens in greece saying that the debt limit has to be enforced but nobody has ever done anything about those rules in the past. >> warner: that's right, gwen. as one commentator said to me tonight, one noted television commentator here in germany, he said, you know, it is really hard for germans to believe that this time they really mean it.

some of the same budget limits that are in this new compact were in the original treaty. as he said, those were violated early and regularly by many countries, he said, including germany. >> ifill: margaret, safe travels to you and thank you for your report. >> warner: thanks, gwen. >> woodruff: next tonight, mounting violence in syria and a new diplomatic push to oust the government of president bashar al assad. ray suarez has the story. >> suarez: since the weekend syrian tanks and troops have been blasting rebel fighters in the suburbs of damascus itself. at least 100 people were killed monday alone. and by today, protestors were left to pick up the wounded since the military regained control. farther north in hommes, more deaths with activists

reporting heavy shelling and machine gun fire by the syrian army. all of which means the u.n.'s most recent estimate, more than 5400 syrians killed since march, is already out of date. >> what's going on in syria is an absolute scandal. i've been saying it for weeks not to say months. >> suarez: french foreign minister voiced the west's mounting frustration on french radio today. >> the butchering continues despite the presence of observers who the arab league who have just left. there are dozens or hundreds of deaths every week. this is not acceptable. this president has blood on his hands. it's not possible for him to continue to assume responsibility for his country. >> suarez: he took that message to new york and the united nations where western and arab diplomats launched their own offenseive. it's aimed at ousting syrian president assad and ending the violence. this afternoon, the 15-nation

u.n. security council took up an arab league prochal that's won strong support from the u.s., britain and france. arab league secretary general nabil. >> arab states aim at taking us as the syrian crisis in an arab context. we are attempting to avoid any foreign intervention. particularly military intervention. >> suarez: the draft resolution demands an end to the syrian government crackdown on the opposition. the plan would also require assad to hand over power to his vice president. that, in turn, is supposed to set the stage for a new unity government. the resolution before the security council says if assad fails to comply within 15 days, he could face unspecified further measures. despite the threat that syrians showed no signs of giving ground. >> the syrian people were

always capable of solving its crises and internal problems alone. it has never accepted any form of foreign intervention in its internal affairs and affairs of its homeland syria. >> suarez: but it may never come to that. russia, a key syrian ally, has veto power in the council and foreign minister sergei visiting australia today called the resolution a path to civil war. >> they hope that knowledgeable people, reasonable people understand what this is about. and who opt in favor of dialogue and engagement of everyone, not in favor of isolating. isolation doesn't work. >> suarez: back in the security council u.s. secretary of state hillary clinton tried to allay russian and chinese fears about u.n. military action. >> now, i know that some members here may be concerned that the security council

could be headed toward another libya. that is a false analogy. syria is a unique situation that requires its own approach, tailored to the specific circumstances occurring there. >> suarez: the security council was expected to continue discussing the res loougs tomorrow. it remains unclear when a final vote might come. and joining me now from the united nations is the u.s. ambassador, susan rice. she's been involved in today's security council sessions with secretary of state clinton. madam ambassador, russian diplomats have called the current u.n. resolution a path to civil war. they got the veto. is that the end of this resolution? >> no, not necessarily, ray. we'll see as we get deeper into negotiations where, in fact, the russians are. they have a fundamental choice to make.

they can stand with the syrian people and the countries in the region in the arab league in support of a peaceful plan to transfer power and have democratic elections or they can be on the wrong side of history and as secretary clinton said today complicit in the consequences for the syrian people. we hope they'll make the right choice. but there's no assurance of that. in fact, we will get into negotiations and we'll see whether a resolution that itself imposes no sanctions, has no threats or authorization for the use of military force but simply condemns the violence, condemns the syrian regime for the atrocities against its people and calls for supporting in toto the arab league plan to pursue this peaceful transition can garner their support. it will be an important indication of their intention. >> suarez: earlier we saw your boss, the secretary of state, speaking to reassure china and

russia. given the wording which is what the russians have objected to, and they say it leaves open the possibility of armed intervention, can they be reassured? can this be rewritten? >> ray, there is absolutely nothing, zero, nada in this resolution that calls for, allows or contemplates the possibility of the use of military force. that is simply false. and the secretary said that that... in the council today when she said the analogy to libya is a false analogy. so there's nothing to fix in this resolution. it is not under chapter 7 of the charter which is the provision for the use of force or sanctions or self-defense. it is nothing along those lines. so that is an argument that the opponents of action in syria have been using to delay and deflect meaningful council response. there are other aspects of the

resolution that they may legitimately object to such as supporting the arab league plan about which they have some reservations but there's nothing in this resolution that threatens or authorizes the use of force. there's nothing that imposes sanctions. there's nothing that false under chapter 7, the enforcement provision of the charter. >> suarez: often a vote is held up until an outcome is more certain. is the u.s. ready to go ahead with the vote even if it looks like a veto is coming? >> well, see,... we'll see where the sides line up in the context of the negotiations. too soon to make that judgment, ray. we're not interested in a divided council as the secretary said today. indeed almost every member of the council today including russia and china, we seek a unified consensual decision out of the security council that supports our interests, the arab league's interest and the syrian people's interest in a peaceful political transition that ends the

killing and ends the crisis. that may prove not to be possible. and if that's the case, then morocco which has sponsored this resolution, the aroob league which has sought council action and we and others will have to take a decision about how to proceed but that's pre-masur at this stage. >> suarez: as diplomacy takes its steady course in new york at the united nations there's no hesitation in syria. the army is moving strongly against what is called the free syrian army. and the people, two dozen a day, who are being killed day in, day out wait for diplomacy to work. >> we have taken the view from the very beginning, ray, that one death is too many. this has been going on for 11 months. the united states has been very clear that assad's policies are absolutely reprehensible. and need to end immediately. we have imposed very tough sanctions on the syrian regime as have members of the european union.

the arab league has called for sanctions. many others have come and the economic pressure on assad is very intense. we're proceeding with a great degree of urgency because we are deeply concerned that assad is now stepping up his violence. he is taking advantage of the absence of the arab league monitors to do even more damage. so this is quite urgent. but, as i said earlier and as the secretary of state said in the security council member- states have a choice to make. are they going to be on the side of the syrian people and the right side of history and the values that we hold dear, freedom of assembly, freedom of speech, freedom of expression, freedom to chart one's own political future or are they going to side with a dictator whose days are very numbered. >> suarez: away from the cameras, members of the arab league delegation briefed members of security council delegations today in new york. any signs that that helped soften the resistance to the

arab league-backed resolution? >> well, i think it certainly clarified so misconceptions for those who are listening and have an open mind. there are many who have tried to suggest, those who are supportive of the assad regime that somehow this resolution entails regime change. that is false. and indeed the arab league secretary general, the prime minister of qatar representing the arab league member-states made that point very clearly. it calls for a process consistent with syria's constitution for assad to hand over delegates, responsibility for negotiating the parameters of a peaceful political transition to his vice president. that is what the arab league plan entails. that is what the council is being asked to endorse among other elements of the arab league plan. and so that misconception,

which has fueled some concern in various quarters, was certainly directly addressed by our arab partners in their meetings today and yesterday. and i hope that it has brought some clarity to those that are paying attention. >> suarez: the united states ambassador to the united nations, susan rice, thanks for joining us. >> thank you for having me, ray. >> woodruff: now, we look at one of the major economic problems on the minds of voters this year, including in florida: housing. jeffrey brown has the story. >> brown: florida may be known as the sunshine state, but like much of the country conditions remain poor when it comes to the housing market. a national report out today, the so-called index shows u.s. home prices fell for a third straight month in major metropolitan markets including

miami and tampa. in florida, home values have dropped by 40% or more in some areas since the housing bust. nationwide prices have dropped by more than a third. and the foreclosure crisis continues with nearly 2.7 million foreclosure filings last year. several states have been particularly hard-hit including california, nevada, arizona, and indeed the site of today's primary election florida. some voters in tampa today said they wanted the candidates to offer more solutions to the problem. >> i'm not thrilled with the reactions from them talking about it. i think they've kind of just gone past it. i really don't think they want to talk about it. >> brown: a map from the newshour's "vote 2012" center helps tell the story. the tampa area is one of nearly 30 counties in the state where foreclosure rates have risen substantially in some cases doubling, tripling

or quadrupling since 2007. the darker the color the worse shape the county is in. to date republican presidential candidates have largely avoided spelling out specific policies on housing, mainly arguing that fixing the broader economy is the most logical solution. in october, mitt romney said in an interview in las vegas that it was best to, quote, let the foreclosure process run its course and hit the bottom. more recently in florida, he's talked generally about taking measures to turn around the problem. most of the focus of the last week though has been on the government-owned mortgage giants fannie mae and freddie mac. last week's debate in jacksonville, romney took aim at newt gingrich's consultant work with freddie mac. >> he should have stood up and said these things are a disaster. this is a crisis. he should have been anxiously telling the american people that these entities were cause ago housing bubble that would cause the collapse we've seen here in florida and around the country. >> governor romney owns shares

of both fannie mae and freddie mac. governor romney made a million dollars off selling some of that. governor romney has an investment in goldman sachs which is today foreclosing on floridians. >> brown: in that same debate texas representative ron paul and former senator rick santorum both said fannie and freddie should be phased out. for his part, the president used his state of the union address to call for new legislation aimed at helping those unable to make their mortgage payments. >> responsible homeowners shouldn't have to sit and wait for the housing market to hit bottom to get some relief. and that's why i'm sending this congress a plan that gives every responsible homeowner the chance to save about $3,000 a year on their mortgage by refinancing at historically low rates. >> brown: the president's principal program for working with lenders has far helped more than 900,000 homeowners get a permanent modification on their mortgage. that's far short of the

original goals of the program. tomorrow the president is expected to spell out further details of his newest plan. more now on housing and the campaign more now on housing and the campaign from jed kolko, chief economist with trulia, an online residential real estate site that provides information for buyers, sellers, renters, and agents. and arian campo-flores is a reporter for the "wall street journal" who's been reporting on housing in florida. he joins us from miami. jed kolko, before we get to florida and the campaign, fill in the national picture for us a bit. what do today's numbers tell us? >> the housing market is still struggling in most parts of the country. even though we have seen some good news in the past few months, both sales and construction appear to be picking up a bit, but home prices are still falling. not as much as they did at the worst part of the housing bust but they are still falling. a lot of people have wondered how can that be? we thought that if you fixed the economy, the housing market would follow and we've seen employment growing each

month for more than the last year. but the problem is even with more jobs and growing housing demand, there's so much inventory, so much supply, so many vacancies that it's hanging over the housing market that makes it hard for prices to rise. you may have more people who are demanding housing and are looking to buy, but there are so many homes that are available and could come to market if prices started to rise that there's nothing to push prices upward until we get rid of some of this inventory. >> brown: take that national picture and translate it to what you've been seeing in counties in florida. give us a little flavor of the current state of the market there. >> well, i spent some time reporting in the county in central florida, the eastern end of the i-4 corridor. the western part of that county in particular cities like deltaa, de berry and deland have been especially hard hit.

the price theirs have come down 54% from their peak. i saw blocks with four or five, six homes that were in foreclosure. for sale signs all over the place. i spoke to a lot of people who either faced foreclosure or went through it. they just uniformly described this incredibly excrutiating maddening process that takes years of negotiating with banks. in the course ruins their credit and just creates immense frustration. also spoke to those who were their neighbors and feel trapped in their homes because they've seen the property values plummet in their areas and they just don't really have a way out. >> brown: just to stay with you. there you were all week while the campaign was going on. how did this issue play out? what did people tell you they wanted from the candidates and what were they hearing from the candidates? >> well, what they said they want is more help for homeowners who are underwater.

folks want the principals on their loans to be written down. they would like these refinancing programs and loan modification programs to reach them. you know, figures were cited earlier that the administration has put out and it's true. in fact, more than 900,000 people have had permanent modifications but none of the people that i spoke to had been able to benefit from any of those programs. so there's this sense that those, you know, folks in washington who have put forth solutions, those have not worked thus far. what they're hearing so far from the candidates on the campaign trail, on the g.o.p. side are a lot of generalities but no specific proposals that, you know, would suggest a way out. >> brown: it sort of presents an interesting dilemma, jed kolko, for some of the republican candidates because

for the most part on economic issues they're pushing for free-market policies. how does that translate into the particulars of the housing market? >> i think the republican candidates are in a tough position when it comes to housing policy. when it comes to voters, housing really is a bipartisan issue. we truly did a survey of consumers, and we found that even a majority of republicans want the government to support home ownership. they're actually in favor of most of the types of proposals that are on the table. the problems for the canned dalts though is almost any policy that you might come up with, such as refinancing or reducing principal, loan modification, will either cost somebody smo money and that somebody is probably going to be the government or the banks or both and it's very hard to separate people who are underwater or might lose their homes and it's entirely not their fault from people who might have taken risks or made bad decisions that maybe they

shouldn't be bailed out for. democrats are a lot more willing to accept that some people who may be less deserving to be helped than republicans are. republicans are a lot less willing to burden either the government or banks with more money. it means even though republican voters want to hear from their candidates some kinds of policies that might help the housing market, republican candidates face these land mines of the challenge of spending more money and the reluctance among lots of republicans to help undeserving homeowners. >> brown: at the same time, jed kolko, the obama administration with a more interventionist approach is still finding this a very tough nut to crack, right? still a big problem. >> that's right. what obama proposed in the state of the union address probably needs congressional approval. we know how that usually goes. but another irony of the whole debate over housing policy is that some of the most innovative and daring ideas have actually come from

advisors and economists and other policy wonks who traditionally advise republicans. so the ideas are there. it's just that current politics make it hard for the sgochlt to spend money and have to deal with this question of separating the deserving from the undeserving homeowners and makes it very hard for the republican candidates to talk about these policys in the campaign. >> brown: arian campo-flores, bringing it back to florida. i wonder if you see any bright spots there. florida still being a very desirable destination for so many people around the country. is there some hope of morning people coming in, picking up some of these houses? are there some signs that people point to? >> there are some. i mean, you know, in the miami area, for instance, there's been a lot of international buyers that have come in that are scooping up properties that were and all these condominiums that were overbuilt during the boom period and paying all cash. they're starting to eat up some of that inventory.

in the county where i spent time reporting, you're seeing again people taking advantage of the really low prices, buying up properties that they're then renting out or using sort of as investments so that is starting to happen. it is helping. i spoke to the property prayer in the county who felt that the market was probably pretty much at the bottom, but there is just still so much inventory left that it will just take a long time for that to really have a noticeable impact in these neighborhoods. >> brown: jed kolko, just 30 seconds or so here. does that fit into any part of the national picture? >> yes. truly we see many more people from outside of florida searching for homes in florida than people in florida looking to leave. florida's long been the retirement community for so much of the u.s., and baby boomer s will still be retiring and now that homes

are more affordable in florida, some of those baby boomers who thought they'd have to look for cheaper locations in the south can now consider florida again for their retirement. >> brown: jed kolko, arian campo-flores, thank you both very much. >> my pleasure. >> ifill: and more on florida, with the analysis of shields and brooks: syndicated columnist mark shields and "new york times" columnist david brooks. mark, are you surprised that we haven't heard more about this housing question in the florida campaign? >> i am. but i think within the discussion itself. that is republicans are not comfortable talking about major national federal policy. particularly in a primary that's been a debate on the right hand side of the, even the republican divide. >> ifill: it seems like most of the discussion about housing has been pointing the finger at one another for

money they took from different people. >> that's true. i think there's hesitancy on the part of both candidates or all four candidates to be affirm affirmative about a government program. then the argument would be the market has to clear. they don't want to say that. nobody wants to say it's probably going to have to go down a little more. >> ifill: they're off to nevada. another conversation. let's talk about what happens tonight. mark, if romney wins as the polls seem to be indicating so far, was it because he was a better candidate or because gingrich was worse? >> it will be because romney came back and took a punch, showed he could take a punch in south carolina and come back. i think it's fair to say regardless of how you feel about either candidate that each of them has lived by the following creed: i'm going to spend every minute i have, every dollar i have, every opportunity i have telling you, the voters, why my opponent should not be president of the united states.

very little time saying why i should be or how i will change your life. i think most of all newt gingrich's argument has been i'm the one guy in this race tough enough, smart enough, quick enough to take on barack obama in november. and yet been whining about the dirty tricks, the unfair treatment, the ungentle manly treatment he's getting at the hands of mitt romney. he's whined an awful lot. >> i spoke to a few republican governors and then some republican senators this week. what impressed them was the idea that romney had that terrible week in south carolina. the question was does this guy really have the fight in him to fight back? one romney advisor told him, you know, you're in a corner. you have a bottle in your hand. are you going to break the bottle and start slashing the guy? that's the way politicians talk i guess. they were impressed that romney did come out.

he certainly has come out slashing both in the debates and on the air. i think if you measure your politician by your toughness, he's shown he can do it. >> ifill: the beginning of this week there was undisguised panic within the republican establishment about the prospect of a newt gingrich surge. was this a victory for them if romney pulls this out? >> if gingrich goes down, yes. i mean there is terror, panic i think it's fair to say on the republican side about the prospect of newt gingrich being at the top of the ticket in november. i mean, the republicans will tell you some even on the record but not all but they really fear they'll lose both the house and the senate if newt gingrich is there. >> ifill: and yet expectations for mitt romney now sky high. >> a lot of that is not because he's had a good week or two but it's also just who is in the electorate. in south carolina you had a lot of high school educated social conservatives. that's traditionally

gingrich's people. romney does much better with the college educated republicans. there are just a lot more of them in florida the way there won't be in some other states they're going to. one of the big things i saw this cnn poll which is representative of a lot, where they ask people, would you have problems enthusiastically supporting these other candidates if your guy doesn't win? 74% would have problems if ron paul was the nominee and 28% would have problems if newt gingrich was the nominee. only 7% have problems if mitt romney is the nominee. they're will to go accept him. >> but i would say this. this has come at a considerable cost to romney. in just less than two months his rating among independents has gone from 41% favorable to 34 unfavorable all the way down to 23% favorable to 51% unfavorable among independent voters. i mean that is the key group, the target group, the group republicans were sure they could carry against president

obama in the fall. i mean, he's got an awful lot to make up. there have been body blows and facial cuts administered to him, in this battle with newt gingrich. >> ifill: perhaps they never admit they're going to drop out. i don't see any of these four remaining candidates including ron pl, rick santorum both campaigning this week not in florida. why don't we hear any of them beginning to sound like they're thinking about dropping out. >> rick perry said he was still in even after he dropped out. he stayed in a couple days. they never want to say that. i suspect they won't. but the key thing to say, a lot of people. >> ifill: they won't say it or they don't drop out. >> i think they won't drop out. but the key thing is that you hear it from other lesser pundits that if santorum drops out, that's the anti-romney vote. they'll swing over to gingrich. if you look at the polls when they ask you if it was just gingrich versus knee who would you vote for?

romney picks up a lot of the santorum people. it's not clear if san torp up did drop out it would necessarily hurt romney all that much. >> romney was trailing gingrich in the wall street journal nbc poll head on head nationally the two of them. that will be influenced by what does happen tonight. i think that the problem for gingrich going forward is we hit a fall owe period. i mean, chances for him to change the narrative. we have only one debate this month which has been his principal forum. secondly i mean he's not on the ballot in missouri. and the organization is required in those caucus states where he might be able to do well but he doesn't have the organization. >> ifill: fortunately i'm sorry to interrupt you. fortunately all night to talk about this. i'll see you back again for west coast updates and for a special tonight. mark shieldsing david brooks, thanks a lot.

>> woodruff: again, the major developments of the day. mitt romney was confident and newt gingrich defiant as republicans cast ballots in florida's winner-take-all primary. the u.n. security council took up an arab league peace plan for syria, while syrian government forces routed rebel fighters from the outskirts of damascus. and the congressional budget office estimated the federal deficit will top $1 trillion for the fourth year in a row. online, we have more on today's primary contest. kwame holman explains. kwame? >> holman: gwen filed a blog post on what to look for in tonight's results, plus patchwork nation profiles the types of communities most likely to support mitt romney. on our health page, there's voting of a different sort about the future of health care. a new report lays out four scenarios for the average american's care in 2025. cast your ballot for the most likely one. on our social entrepreneurship page, read about how a haitian- american is helping neglected and vulnerable children in her homeland.

and examine what's happening in many of the biggest housing markets around the country, and how much prices may have fallen in your area. paul solman has an interactive chart on his making sense page. all that and more is on our web site, newshour.pbs.org. gwen? >> ifill: and that's the newshour for tonight. on wednesday, we'll follow the g.o.p. presidential hopefuls as they move on to colorado and nevada. i'm gwen ifill. >> woodruff: and i'm judy woodruff in tampa. we'll see you online, where you can follow the county-by-county returns on our interactive map and watch the candidates' victory and concession speeches tonight, plus you can view all our programming on your mobile device. just download the pbs newshour iphone and ipad app. and we'll be here for a special report on the results of the florida primary at 11:00 p.m. eastern time, and again tomorrow evening. thanks for watching. good night. major funding for the pbs newshour has been provided by:

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