known at this time. and small business owners feeling less optimistic these days. the survey taken in september shows they are worried about the economy, even though the outlook for sales and capital spending increased. the national federation for independent business said the government shutdown that started after the latest survey was taken weighed heavily on those business owners. >> with the government shutdown in the second week and the nation hurdling towards the debt limit, how close is uncle sam from running out of money? how much money does the treasury need to borrow, and what do the bills look like and when do they hit? amo >> reporter: how soon will the united states miss it's payments? it's not totally clear since daily inflows to the treasury are difficult to predict. what is not difficult to predict

are out lays. after october 17th, the payments come quickly for the united states government. on october 23rd, the u.s. owes $12 billion in social security benefits. on october 31st, the pressurery must pay $6 billion but november 1st could be the highest hurdle of all, on that day the u.s. must pay $67 million on a variety of expenditures. retiree and veterans payments and sup mental security income. that is the date to watch if you're worried about the u.s. missing a payment. it doesn't get easier after that. on november 13th, treasury must pay $12 million in social security benefits and on november 15th it must pay on quarterly interest. bottom line, it's impossible to say when the united states would miss the first payment but every day after the 17th, it's going to get tougher and tougher to pay the bills. for "nightly business report",

i'm amemon javers in washington >> two household names reporting sales and profits for the just completed third quarter. alcoa easily beat earnings forecast thanks in part to u.s. auto makers keeping plants open during the summer, increasing demand for metal. alcoa shares fell in the regular session but rose in after hours. also reporting tonight, yum brands, the owner of kfc, taco bell and pizza hut missed estimates after a sharp drop in china. shares fell sharply in after hours, but this is just the beginning. kayla looks at the upcoming earning season and gives a preview of what to expect. >> reporter: washington may be closed for business but corporate america will be up and running this week when earnings season kicks off and it could get ugly a. quarter of the companies in the s&p 500 came

out and said earnings this quarter will be worst than expected, and in just the last month, the spoken investment group said analysts slashed expectations for 29 more companies than they raised the expectations. just nine companies will report this week but they could hold clues for a broader market reaction. most investors have eyes on banks, which reagan reporting friday. executives forewarned about weakness on main street as mortgage activity dries up and on wall street as trading activity halts. analysts at kbw says wells fargo is most at risk at growth remains elusive. gregory harrison said that will be the case for all sectors. >> it will be more of the same of what we seen in the last several quarters. we're looking at slow earnings growth. expectations are not real high and there aren't a lot of catalyst to drive earnings into the more double digit range. >> there might not be catalyst for awhile.

the international monetary fund on tuesday slashed the outlook for growth in 2013 and 2014. the imf cautions specifically about the federal reserve's pull back from the stimulus program. as companies continue to weigh through low growth and low interest environment, more earnings should beat expectations than last quarter, mostly because expectations are getting lower. for "nightly business report", i'm kayla toushy. >> so will budget talks in washington hurt corporate earnings. here to tell us if it will or won't is john butters. john, welcome back, good to have you with us again. what is the forecast for the recently finished third quarter? is your forecast for the fourth, and how do you think the impasses in washington will affect those earnings, if at all? >> right now for the third quarter, looking for 2.8% down from 6.5% at the start of the quarter. for the fourth quarter analysts

are looking for quite an improvement. the growth rate jumps up to 10% that quarter. in terms of the impact in washington, you probably won't see much in the third quarter as the index closed on september 30s but the fourth quarter is the concern. we haven't seen downward divisions to that but it's certainly something to keep an eye on as we progress through the earnings season. >> john, you've been monitoring earnings for years and listened in on analysts' calls with the ceos of companies. what do you expect the outlook for the fourth quarter and the extend to the washington shutdown and debate over the debt ceiling moves they will make in their profits. >> the markets and ceos dislike uncertainty and that's the situation now. the comment you'll hear leading up to october 17th is concerns about the uncertainty, where things are go from here, and that is basically i think what you'll hear until that point at least until we get resolution.

other concerns that we've seen so far in companies that reported, global concerns, the negative impact of the stronger dollar against the yen and other currencies and concerns about global economies, specifically in europe in emerging markets. europe continues to be weak and emerging markets are seeing a mixed picture and a weak performance in a merging market and companies concerned about raising costs and cutting costs to maintain near record-level margin. foreign exchange rates and cost cutting are three tehemes to watch. >> the third quarter numbers that will roll out with speed over the next ten days or so, what do you expect the out liars will be? which second tors will be the standouts on the plus side and the standouts on the negative side? >> in terms of year to year growth, the financial sector is expected to be the best performing, nearly 9% growth expected there but the sector we

haven't really seen numbers come down much, in that second tore a lot of the growth is concentrated with two companies bang of america and margin stanley. there you are seeing growth across the secotor, nine of the 12 are expecting growth. we're seeing interesting, chevron is one of the largest contributor, if you exclude chevron we see a significant growth in the rate. exxon mobile is the largest attract tore. if you exclude that it would have positive growth for the quarter. >> john, you talked about financials. we know that jp morgan and wells fargo reporting on friday. what are you expecting from them not only about the third quarter, but what they might say about the outlook? >> what is interesting, two different scenarios for jp morgan looking for a decline above 14% and the other hand,

wells fargo looking for growth of 11% this quarter. the estimate for wells fargo hasn't really moved that much. so, you know, again, the financial sector expected to be a better one this quarter, and we'll keep an eye out for what guidance those companies are giving, particularly wells fargo for mortgage refinancing and the mortgage market. >> john, thank you very much. john butters, senior earnings analyst. and still ahead on "nightly business report", a shot in the arm, despite the glitches in the health care exchanges, will the increased number of insured patients help the long-term prognosis of hospitals and stocks? that's coming up but first, how the international stocks performed today.

new york state has released figures on the number of people signing up for low-cost health insurance, part of the affordable care act. the state's official health plan marketplace announced over 40,000 new yorkers signed up so far, more than any other state and the agency's customer service center says operators provided help to more than 26,000 callers. the reason so many were calling in, they were getting error messages or dealing with technical glitches. all is not lost. the insurance industry and technology companies with experience in rolling o out computer problems say there is plenty of time to fix the problem before millions are required to begin paying for coverage on january 1st. despite the glitches, many more americans are expected to have health insurance at the start of the year and many hospitals expect to see a surge in patients. how will the hospitals handle

the unexpected influx of new cases and what will that mean of the bottom lines and big for profit hospital chains? bertha coombs has the report. >> reporter: for hospitals having more patients insured under the affordable care act could be a game changer, especially for those with major emergency department operations like universal health, george washington university hospital. >> the industry runs between 12 and 20%. as you know, people present themselves in the emergency room must be treated. many of these people have no coverage. >> reporter: universal health ceo alan mill kper spects rules will provide a bigger prostive for his company's behavioral health. >> the individual policies and the small business policies did not have to have mental coverage. now they have to have mental coverage as of january 1st, '14. >> reporter: that could make a big difference for the families of young people with mental

health issues. >> very often the symptoms show up in youngsters and if you have the ability to pay or be treated when you are young, teenagers, et cetera, young adults, it's very meaningful in terms of the ultimate cure. >> reporter: the affordable care act is tougher reimbursement rules. still analysts say millions of newly insured patients should help offset those pressures. >> we think there is about $3.5 billion of revenue opportunity through the health care reform that should benefit the sector. when you take that revenue and you offset it against medicare cuts and other things that come down the line, you get a very beneficial margin bond in the industry's profitability. >> reporter: hospitals seen patient volumes fall as unemployment remained high the last five years, at the same time uncompensated care has

risen 8% annually. even low reimbursement rates will help. >> you have to see patients come instead of being no pay patients who maybe pay 8 cents on the dollar, at best, become full pay patients, even at very low medicaid rates. >> reporter: that's why this fall, hospitals are proactive about helping uninsured patients enroll and making sure they stay covered. >> people look to us for help and education about the health care system. they have forever. >> reporter: alan miller is optimistic but in no rush to add staff. next year will be a time to watch and learn how the newly insured respond to being covered under obama care. bertha coombs, "nightly business report." to market focus now, we begin with j.c. penney. shares rose after the company said sales trends are improving.

the department store posted a smaller decline in september seams and expects the improvement to continue. according to the company, women's and men's apparel and fine jewelry are improving. stock up to $7.77. just a year ago it was trading around $27 a share. big job cuts announced. it will slash 10,000 jobs worldwide over the next two years, that's 14% of the work force. those reductions could save $1.3 billion a year and restore profits at the struggling telecom equipment maker. shares fell more than 9% today to $3.49. shares of xerox. it focuses on accounting practices at affiliated computer services, an it outsourcing firm that xerox bought in 2010. the fcc is looking at practices before it was acquired.

it gets more than half the revenue from the unit. the stock tumbled to $10.14. amazon won a major victory in a dispute today. a u.s. court ruled in favor of the online retailer in a case over the 600 million dollar cloud computing contract with the cia. ibm contested the bidding process for the cia contract but the judge ruled amazon won the contract fair and square. shares of ibm fell nearly 2% to $178.72 and amazon dropped to $303.3. investors fixuated on the washington crisis but there is another financial crisis looming far away from the nation's capital and this could have a big impact on many american portfoli portfolios. michelle reports on why investors should pay attention to what is going on in puerto rico. >> reporter: puerto rico has

some $70 billion of debt behind new york and california but a smaller and weaker connecticut me compared. they borrowed money to cover pension costs and fill budget gaps but that may finally be catching up. investors have been selling bonds for the last several weeks for fear they might not get paid back. agencies downgraded bonds backed by revenue from puerto rico sales tax. puerto rico may be small by bonds from puerto rico are one of the few that has what's known as a triple exception. no hatter what state you live in, if you own a bond from puerto rico, you don't pay federal, state or local taxes on the interest. morning star says there are 567 municipal bond funds in the united states and more than 75% have some exposure to puerto rico. while some traditional may be selling, hedge funds willing to take bigger risks are buying them and mature in 2039 is

selling for 71 cents on the dollar and will pay more than 8%, fully tax free, that's a great deal if you get paid back. puerto rico has taken step ps recently to control pension cost and raise revenue with more taxes on businesses, which they hope will raise $2.5 million in new revenues. but those moves could hurt the economy. it might not provide as much money as expected. possible debt bond you should be watching for. for "nightly business report", michelle cabrera. a new experimental way to pay for education, but will it work? >> i'm jane wells in salt lake city, utah. what if you could fund education, save taxpayers money and make a profit? we're going to look at a unique experiment in improving america's schools.

more americans are falling behind on paying loans and a weak job growth and incomes are getting the blame. consumer delateness has grown. the largest increases in payments that were 30 days late or more were in personal loans, home improvement loans and auto loans. the fourth education summit is underway now in new york city that brings together leaders in government, education, business to find fresh ways to fund and improve america's public schools. a novel approach, a new investment vehicle called social impact bonds. jane well complains how they work and how they could turn a profit. ♪ peanut butter, we like peanut

butter ♪ >> some invest in funds and some invest in preschool, millions of dollars to fund preschools. gold man doesn't just want to give money, it wants to make money. >> the transaction, the first time its ever invested directly in the actual program, the actual education services itself. >> reporter: the wall street giant has the second largest u.s. office in salt lake city and drawing chicago investor to offer the local school district $7 million to fund preschool for children from low income areas. the hope better prepare them for ki kindergarten. >> in the past maybe 15% would end up in special education, even though half of them didn't need to be there, they just needed to learn and the challenge with special ed is once you check in, you almost never check out. >> reporter: the new money is coming through what's called a social impact bond.

if the children get through third grade without needing special ed, investors will get their money back plus 5% interest. director of preschool services brenda is used to winning grants, not repaying bonds. >> it would be a bond. down what that means? it would be a pay back with interest, and my heart sunk and i thought i'm in a public school system. there is no way. how would i ever find the funds to be able to do that? >> what sound does it make? >> reporter: for now, the county and united way will repay the bond but eventually the state needs to be convinceed to take over but social impact bonds are new and untried and she's heard from skeptics. >> is it a big rip off? who is getting rich. >> teaguen, are you here today? >> reporter: teaguen is one of three to go through preschool, all had delayed speech. >> my oldest that was in the program, he was caught up by

kindergarten. >> reporter: he's reading a grade level ahead. >> if kids can grow up in the system and become contributing members of the society, they can contribute in different ways. we know high-quality preschool works. >> reporter: if investing for profit also works. for "nightly business report", jane wells, salt lake city. on friday you'll remember we told you about investors who sink money into the penny stock of bankrupt electronics retailer tweeter after confusing twtrq with that of twitter, which will have the symbol twtr when it begins trading. tweeter stocks shot up on that mistake. today to avoid confusion in the future, wall street regulators changed tweeter to thegq. no comment or even a tweet for twitter. a major make over for ben franklin, the brand-new 100-dollar bill began circulating today and they have

the most advanced anti counter fitting, including a blue 3 d security ribbon and a color shifting liberty bill that sits inside an ink well and water marks that are held over from earliy eier versions of the 1 0. i think mr. franklin would be impressed. >> and in washington. >> something hasn't stopped. that's "nightly business report" for tonight, i'm susie gharib. for more and the stories we covered tonight, head to nbr.com. >> for give me for interrupting you there. have a great evening everybody. have a good night. "nightly business report" is brought to you by. >> thestreet.com, enter active multi media tools for an ever changing financial world. the dividend stock advisor guides and helps generate income during a period of low interest rates. we are thestreet.com. b

outdoors maryland is made by mpt, to serve all of our diverse communities, and is made possible by the generous support of our members. coming up... capturing chesapeake beauty at the edge of the land. dredging the bottom for signs of a comeback. and, restoring the bay from the bottom up.

next. outdoors maryland is produced in cooperation with the department of natural resources. dnr...inspired by nature, guided by science. closed captioning provided by maryland public television

man: we can go up to chicone creek, and then i want to go up to gales creek, which is this beautiful little creek. narrator: it's early morning and photographer david harp is where he loves to be... taking photos of the beauty in the marshes along the chesapeake bay. david harp: just being out in the marshes, watching the sunrise. the whole smell of the marsh, being around these spartina grasses. i could go on and on. it's just a beautiful place. it's threatened, and that's one of the things that keeps me going. i want to say, damn it, we need to do something about this. we need to protect this. good. this is perfect. you see these irises over here? narrator: david has been taking photographs of nature along the waterways of the chesapeake bay for most of his life. david: i consider myself more like an environmental photographer.

it's that relationship between human and nature, between the great blue heron and its edge, and the nests, and where it lives. watching the monarch butterfly alight on golden rod in september. and the tundra swans coming in on a snowy day. i enjoy not just a picture of an animal but what's that animal's relationship to where it's nesting, why is it there? is it threatened? there are all these questions that i ask. i'm a journalist, i just love the story. that's the most important part to me, and how to bring that back and show to people. narrator: david learned his trade at a young age from his father. david: my dad was an amateur photographer but he was a newspaper editor. he worked at the hagerstown morning herald.

the day that president kennedy was assassinated, i was a junior in high school, i walked down to the newspaper office and i stayed there until the wee hours of the morning. i've just never looked back. that was the day. and since then i've always wanted to be a photographer. tom, how you doing? tom: good. are you heading up to gales creek? david: yup. narrator: harp took his skills and love of journalism to the baltimore sun, where he met writer tom horton. they've published several books all about the chesapeake bay, and the edge of water and land. tom: i think if you were to pluck out an essential theme for both of us since we started with the bay 30 some years ago, it would be the edge. narrator: the edge. that meandering, jagged transition where water meets land. an organic zone filled with life and critical to the chesapeake's health. david: this is where the stories were,