if it' ll get a good one from senator lindsey graham. senator graham: tell donald trump to go to hell. >> the road to the nomination runs through his home state of south carolina and what' s the future of the , republican brand? john: this is not conservatism gop strategist john feehery calls out his own party. john: i think the party' s going to be in for a world of hurt. >> plus, is it a good bet that secretary hillary clinton will that' s the line from the internet wagering site, predictit. why the stock is rising for a company that lets you bet on

fernando i' m fernando espuelas. : welcome to "matter of fact." when i interviewed john mccain about a month ago, he was quick to throw his support behind lindsey graham for president. but to first become the republican nominee, graham will have to separate himself from a very crowded field. what is the veteran senator' s message, and can it break through the noise created by front runner and outsider donald trump? i caught up with the senator preparing for the primary in manchester, new hampshire. hard. the reason i' ve run for president above all others, fernando, is on national security, i have a plan to destroy isil. president obama' s strategy is not working. we don' t have enough ground forces in iraq to repair the damages from us leaving. we have 3500, i would go to 10,000. that would allow more american trainers and advisors, more attack helicopters to take the battle to isil, ramadi and mosul, a city of a million people, forward air controllers

people, special forces to go after isil leadership inside iraq. syria is a complete hell on earth situation. there are no good choices left, but here' s the good news. isil' s not ten feet tall, the arabs want to destroy isil, and they also want to get rid of assad, a puppet of iran. the same two goals expressed by the president. so here' s what i would do. i would get a large arab army up with turkish forces, a modern army, 90% them, 10% us, about 10,000 western forces with 80,000-90,000 regional forces to go into syria, destroy the caliphate, pull it up by the roots, take raqqa away from isil, their capital, hold, then turn to assad and say, you' re next. i don' t think russia or iran would fight for the butcher of damascus if you could knock the entire arab world, which i could.

polls for several months, proposed banning all muslims from coming into the united states. what' s your opinion? senator graham: banning all muslims from coming into the country empowers isil. it puts our soldiers and diplomats at risk. the enemy uses this against us. the way you end this war is you partner with people in the faith to go after isil. every arab nation, the king of jordan, saudi arabia, egypt, turkey, all of these countries want to destroy isil because it' s a threat to their way of life. what obama' s doing is declaring war on the faith. i' m declaring war on radical islam. you' ve got to build up others. you can' t leave with the -- when the caliphate is brought down. we should not have left iraq. fernando: it seems that the debate in the united states, at least in the republican party, is highly emotional, not really fact-driven, and it' s almost as if your logical approach to a problem is actually a weakness as opposed to a strength. so how do you turn it around? senator graham: well number one,

s another 9/11 coming towards this country. barack obama' s policies regarding isil and his empowerment of iran is a nightmare for us long term. that radical islam is running wild and donald trump doesn' t have a clue as to what the hell he' s doing. that his idea to ban all muslims empowers the enemies and puts our soldiers at risk. the idea of partnering with russia to destroy isil and having to keep assad in power as the price to be paid is really dumb. big time dumb. the last thing i want to do is make iran stronger. i' m not going to give them another error capital. rand paul' s isolationist is even weaker than obama' s, leading from behind. so if you' re looking for somebody tough? i' m tough, but i' m also smart. and when donald trumps says, "if you don' t treat me nice, i' m going to leave the republican party," you know what? that' s a bully. a strong man would stick up for himself and not threaten to take his ball and go home. how are you going to deal with the russians? how are you going to deal with

re threatening to leave the republican party because people don' t respect you and they' re not treating you nice? so he' s not strong. he' s weak. he' s a bully. his ideas are ill-conceived. they make no sense. you' re not going to deport 11 million immigrants, but you can deal with illegal immigration. you can suspend your visa programs until you find a way to vet in certain areas, but you shouldn' t deny everybody based on their faith entry into the country. so you want emotion? i got a plan to win this war! i' m going to go on the ground with american boots because we need them to kill every one of these bastards we can find. but we' re also going to partner with people in the region. what donald trump is doing makes no sense, and you know what, donald? if you don' t like the republican party, if you' re threatening to leave, don' t let the door hit you in the butt! all i can say is he' s not a republican. he' s playing people for fools, and i hope people wake up. i hope people understand that what he' s doing is going to

president of the united states. he doesn' t have a domestic or foreign policy plan that makes any sense. so to the republican party, wake don' t let donald trump bully you. t handle criticism in the primary, how are you going to be able to be president of the united states? fernando: one of the concerns that i have heard you air before is that his rhetoric, specifically relating to minorities, now muslims, but certainly hispanics in the past, are very damaging to the ability of the eventual nominee to put together a national coalition. how dangerous is he, and is he going to have a lasting effect, regardless of where he ends up in the race? senator graham: there' s a poll out with hispanics where they have not judged us all by donald trump. he has a 68% disapproval rating among hispanics. i believe that the immigration problem should be solved. build a strong border security network, because we need control one. who gets a job because that' s why they come here, to work illegally, but with the 11 million, deport felons, give the rest a chance to stay on our

fine, get in the back of the line so you don' t cheat. at the end of the day, donald trump has taken our problems with hispanics and poured gasoline on it. calling most illegal immigrants racists and drug dealers hurts -- rapists and drug dealers hurts the cause, it' s not right. rounding up people based on their faith, barring them from coming into the country based on their faith alienates most independent minded voters. hillary clinton will mop the floor with donald trump he is killing us with hispanics, his foreign policy' s putting us at risk. so if you want to destroy the republican party' s chance to win in 2016, pick somebody like donald trump who doesn' t have a snowball' s chance in hell of bringing people our way at a time when they' re willing to come our way. if you think this is helping grow the republican party with minorities and young voters, you' re just really not watching what' s going on in this country. fernando: lindsey graham' s campaign ads emphasize the

and security. we' ll see if that message has the strength to lift his numbers in the polls and propel him to a victory in the primaries. >> up next, why donald trump' s reality show is no dream come true for republicans. >> the truth is donald trump is the best thing to ever happen to hillary clinton. >> i can guarantee you donald trump is not going to be the nominee. >> plus -- this company says you can win even if your candidate loses. praised as one of america's best mayors who governed as a pragmatist. bernie sanders passed more amendments in a republican congress than any other member. cracked the gridlock with john mccain to strengthen veterans' healthcare. bernie sanders. a consistent, principled, and effective leader. building a future to believe in. sanders: i'm bernie sanders and i approve this message. anncr: when the attacks come here... ...the person behind this desk will have to

will he be impulsive and reckless, like donald trump? will he have voted to dramatically weaken counter-terrorism surveillance, like ted cruz? will he have skipped crucial national security hearings and votes just to campaign, like marco rubio? 27 generals and admirals support jeb bush. because jeb has the experience and knowledge to protect your family. right to rise usa is responsible for the content of this message. for lynn's family, the big stress is paying four hundred dollars a month in medical and drug costs for aidan. for other families it's higher deductibles, premiums and co-pays that keep adding up. that's why we've got to crack down on price gouging, cap out-of-pocket costs, and fast track approval of less expensive generic drugs. because we've got to get health care costs under control for lynn's family and for yours. i'm hillary clinton and i

mr. trump: donald j. trump is calling for a total and complete shutdown of muslims entering the united states until our country' s representatives can figure out what the hell is going on. fernando: donald trump' s recent call for, in his words, "a total shutdown of muslims entering the u.s." drew swift condemnation from both sides of the aisle. the question is, what impact will his comments have on the

will they have long-term implications for the republican party? the democratic response is largely predictable, so i asked republican strategist john feehery. fernando: tell me a little bit about the state of the race right now. donald trump is leading in most polls. it looks like his lead is solid at least for the last few months. how do you see the race? john: well, trump has got the simplest messages. he' s the best at responding to news events of the day. there' s about 20-30% of the republican base that really liked him. no other candidate has been able to consolidate that different base. and i think that trump right now is leading the polls because the polls are polling a bunch of there' haven' they' they' re not necessarily reflected in these polls. when i talk to the people out in the country they like trump , because he seems strong, he s willing to be politically incorrect which has really upset

spent most of its time being politically correct. so trump is someone who i think is formidable right now. we' ll see if he' s actually formidable when the voting happens. fernando: he' s upset the apple cart in any case, right? some of the seemingly strongest candidates like jeb bush are mired in 5% range or so. they have a lot of money. do you see them coming back? is there an opportunity for recovery when you' re down that far in the polls? john: well, remember, john mccain was down and out. john kerry was down and out. we all remember howard dean, who did so well this time in the election several years ago. it' s awfully early to think the front runners now are going to be the front runners then. i still remember telling people very confidently that rudy giuliani was going to win the republican nomination to be president. that' s how we came up with john mccain. i think it' s very early to be making bold predictions. there'

even though the polls don' t show that. if you did deep in the polls, people haven' t decided what they are doing. we' re not sure what the big new events are going to come. we' re also not sure if the latest comments from donald trump will blow up his campaign or not. he has said so many things that are so crazy, that any other candidate would have faced huge problems. fernando: putting aside whether trump' s lead can be maintained, he' s definitely changed the tone at least thus far of the debate, and it seems not necessarily for the positive in the republican field. but really this kind of bitter rhetoric that -- you called it crazy talk, he' s insulted a wide variety of groups of voters. does that impact how people see the republican brand long-term? or is it a short-term phenomenon? john: we'

i think that depends on who gets the nomination. if a donald trump or ted cruz who' s basically saying the same types of things without the heated rhetoric -- there' s not really a dime' s bit of difference between ted cruz and donald trump in my opinion. it they get the nomination, then it could have lasting damage. but you really have two debates going on. the debate between the ted cruz-donald trump wing, you could almost put ben carson in that wing as well, and then you have the other debates of the chris christies, the jeb bushes, the john kasichs, more traditional republicans, more establishment republicans, more people who actually have governing experience, and in the middle you have someone like a marco rubio who' s trying to play it both ways. if rubio or any of the other candidates on the establishment wing get the nomination, it has no real long lasting damage to - the party. if on the other hand a donald trump or ted cruz do get the nomination, i think the party' s going to be in for a world of hurt and could face catastrophic consequences in the upcoming

fernando: why? why will it be a catastrophe? republicans who won' t vote for ted cruz or donald trump. and i think it could lead to a split in the party. i also think that the race baiting, the religious baiting that' s been going on from trump and largely ted cruz the same way, is not something that builds a broader base for the party to draw from. we have demographic changes in this country, there are a lot of hispanics who are voting, a lot if you' re going to demonize those people, why would they vote for the republicans? and for the long term capabilities of the party, i think the rhetoric from trump and cruz to any extent will really hurt the party in the long run. fernando: i think it was yesterday, cbs published a poll which showed hillary clinton in some theoretical matchup with different republicans having this really tremendous lead with hispanic voters, leaving many of the candidates below threshold

in terms of hispanic voter support for a republican to win the nomination. i know it' s early, so we can' t make any conclusions, but how do you see in the best of cases a republican that you would support, closing that gap? john: well, i think for example someone like a jeb bush, speaks fluent spanish. remember when he did the "slow jam" on jimmy fallon in spanish. i talk to a lot of immigration groups, i work with a lot of them on different issues, they' re desperately afraid of jeb bush becoming the nominee because he could do so well. he not only speaks the language, he lives the language, his wife being a mexican- american. i think marco rubio to a lesser extent, but he' s been who' s been trying to expand and fix the immigration laws in a positive way. i think that he could make case to a lot of hispanic voters much more so than either cruz or trump. so, i do think that someone like jeb bush can open the door to

get the 35-40% threshold. any other candidate from the other wing, carson, cruz or trump would close the door. >> coming up -- who will win the iowa caucus? even if you can' t vote on the outcome, you can bet on it. >> it is a stock market, but to many people it looks like a

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families. hillary's plan: raise the minimum wage, get equal pay for women, cut taxes for the middle class, and new incentives for business to share profits with employees instead of just rewarding ceos. those at the top are doing just fine. it's your family that needs a raise. i'm hillary clinton, and i approve this message. fernando: are elections just a high stakes political race where the outcome is bound to come down to the wire? you can bet on it. really bet on it. according to john phillips, who works with the social wagering site predictit, it will only cost you pennies, and the results are far more reliable than political polls. john: it is a stock market, but to many people it looks like a wager. it starts as a contest between two people, one who thinks something is going to happen and one who thinks it' s not going to

and they reach a price from zero to one dollar which they make that contract, and if the person who says it is going to happen, say that person puts down 75 cents if this is going to happen, if it does happen, that person gets a complete dollar. if it doesn' t happen, then the person who puts down 25 cents on the opposite side of that prediction gets the complete dollar. so it' s a one dollar winner take all contract in which two people are betting on the outcome. fernando: and the outcome of -- who is it for? the people are dissipating are having a -- participating are having a good time, but -- john: it is an academic product of the the tory university of london, and 15 more universities are taking the anonymized raw data, looking at how things share versus polling and other criteria.

research for people who are in business. in marketing departments, business schools, statisticians political scientists,. for instance, are people who live in iowa more accurate at predicting the outcome of the living we will find out. the question becomes, are people who are professionally involved in politics more accurate? are people who are donors to campaigns more accurate? all these questions we will be able to answer to the course of the election cycle, and it is a great exercise, enjoyable. i encourage you to get on there. fernando: thank you so much. i hope you will come back. we will look at the differential between the market and the polls. fernando: any election is a gamble, buti john says many predictt players -- predictit

on the political stock market, insider trading is encouraged. >> next on "matter of fact," more shock and awe in the race for the white house. and, reigniting the gun debate.

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fernando: most polls show trampolining the republican pack. he has clearly shaken up the race. look no further than jeb bush' s struggle. funded by a $100 million dollar super pac that was meant to "shock and awe" other candidates into not running, he' s now in single digits. trump' s increasingly violent language has electrified his supporters. he has mainstreamed prejudice. divide and conquer is his strategy, and thus far it is working. some republican leaders fear that trump' s bitter rhetoric is damaging the gop brand. yet, trump is only as powerful as his performance at the ballot box. his competitors will try to beat back his ideas as we approach the all-critical iowa caucus and

in the end, the people have the power to decide not just the future of a political party, but the nation as well. what do you think? tweet me and use the hashtag #matteroffact. connect with us anytime on twitter, facebook, or our website, matteroffact.tv. >> when we come back -- is anyone winning the gun control debate? people are working harder than ever, but the everyday cost of perscriptions, child care, or even just buying groceries can be a stretch for too many families. hillary's plan: raise the minimum wage, get equal pay for women, cut taxes for the middle class, and new incentives for business to share profits with employees those at the top are doing just fine. it's your family that needs a raise. i'm hillary clinton, and i

fernando: once again, a critical issue of national importance is being captured by ideology. facts and reason get tossed to the curb. i' m talking about gun control. in the wake of yet another mass shooting using guns purchased legally, we must ask ourselves, what is the benefit to america of letting our terrorist enemies or the mentally deranged easily buy military assault-style weapons? it' s an easy logic-based argument -- we must make sure that a person buying a machine

listed in a government terror database, or has a mental illness record that would obviously disqualify them from owning automatic weapons designed for warfare. while both sides can argue absolute positions -- more guns, no guns -- the rest of america yearns for a sensible solution that respects the second amendment while not arming our enemies. contact your representatives. tell them what you think. that' s the bottom line. i' m fernando espuelas. [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy.

for lynn's family, the big stress is paying four hundred dollars a month in medical and drug costs for aidan. for other families it's higher deductibles, premiums and co-pays that keep adding up. that's why we've got to crack down on price gouging, cap out-of-pocket costs, and fast track approval of less expensive generic drugs. because we've got to get