have all the fun? that's no fun. unleash the power of dough. give it a pop. hi, everyone, welcome to "on the money." i'm becky quick. the new year is here but what's ahead for your ball let? will interest rates rise and gas prices stay low? insights and predictions. the latest gadgets and new technology, your phone and home both getting smarter, and could a dryerless car be coming your way? extreme training, an entrepreneur wanted to get in shape, so he hired a navy seal to move in and train him.

active did you telly? time to plan that get away, find your beach or slopes at a bargain. "on the money" starts right now. >> announcer: this is "on the money." your money, your life, your future. now, becky quick. 2016 is here and the fed's interest rate rise is under way. we know that we will be electing a new president this year as well. beyond that, a lot of unknowns. we have two reporters with a look ahead. john harwood has predictions on the political front but first steve liesman on how he sees the fed's move impacting the economy in the year ahead. >> the big question for 2016, how many times will the federal reserve hike interest rates? that depends on inflation, jobs and the economy. inflation should continue to fall towards the beginning of 2016 and then stage lies. assuming oil finds a bottom and the dollar doesn't surge. inflation would then move slowly higher as the year progresses. employment growth will downshift to a more sustainable level

more in line with labor force growth overall. economic growth could shift slightly upwards, more towards 2.5% than 2% but not burning up chart books. all of that suggests the fed raises three times in 2016 depending on the data. but my big call for 2016, a change in how the stock market reacts to the decline in oil prices. the stock market finally comes to realize that low oil prices are good for the u.s. economy and rallies when prices fall rather than the other way around. few of us who cover national politics can say we haven't been surprised by the 2015 phase of the 2016 presidential campaign. when ocialist senator bernie sanders entered the democratic nomination race, who expected him to be leading former secretary of state and first lady hillary rodham clinton in new hampshire by the end of the year? when blustery billionaire donald trump entered the republican race who expected him to be dominating the republican fielder pretty much everywhere?

laying out their plans for spurring economic growth who expected that national security would be the dominant issue on the eve of the iowa caucuses. with lots of humility here three predictions. whether she wins or loses in new hampshire hillary clinton will be the democratic nominee. donald trump will not be the republican nominee. once we get past the first couple of and the field concentrates, that's when donald trump will be vulnerable. and the american economy, middle class wages, not national security will be the focus of the 2016 campaign by the time we get to election day. november seems a long way off but right now we will get some predictions on ow all these changes will hit your wallet. joining us jared bernstein and the cato institute's president and ceo peter goettler. welcome to both of you. i want to start off talking about the federal reserve. we did see the first rate hike. do you think we will see additional hikes in the months to come? >> the federal reserve's rate hike schedule, which is for

is aw,lmost solely predicated on inflation. i know steve talked about inflation, jobs and growth, they are all in the mix, but if you look at their -- if you look at their inflation prediction, that's for inflation to rever to form, to start rising much more close to their 2% target and they've consistently missed that. i think they're going to keep missing that in 2016 so i think they will probably be fewer hikes than most others predict. >> peter, what does that means for consumers who are sitting home who maybe h e credit card debt and who have a mortgage? >> as long as the fed is focused on, as jared said, inflation, economic growth, the employment picture, whether the labor market is tight or not, i'm expecting the economy to be a little bit lackluster. the labor market is not nearly as tight as the employment rate which suggests because we have had such a dramatic falloff in the labor force participation rate. >> sure. >> so i'm not expecting interest rates to get away from us. >> you have an adjustable rate

enough to move into a fixed rate mortgage? >> i probably would, not because i think rates are necessarily going to get away from the consumer, but fixed rate mortgages are at very attractive levels. i mean, except for kind of late 2012, early 2013, it's the best rates we have ever seen. hitting that is pretty attractive, i think. >> i think so, too. >> jar read, you know that low gas prices have been something that consumers have gotten used to over the course of this year. do you think that that is going to be the rule for 2016 or are you looking for higher prices from here? >> anyone who predicts that the -- they know where oil is going is pulling somewhat of a fast one on you, but i do actually take the forecasts that we haven't even quite seen the bottom yet for the price of oil, that's kind of the consensus, and i think that will be the case. i mean, just the supply continues to be really on the up side. now, the price of gas is really remarkable. it is actually lower today than it was ten years ago in nominal

>> we heard from john harwood, peter, and he said if he had to make a prediction it would be that trump would not win the republican nomination. he also said, though, that comes with a huge dose of humility and any of the pundits who have been picking this over the last seven or eight months have been wrong. what do you think happened? >> you have to have a lot of humility when you're talking about donald trump because i think no one expected us to be in the situation we are at. i think it's going to be very interesting to see. what i characterize as a bit of a tug of war, you know, trump is not seen as a conventional candidate who will have a effective get out the vote effort, a ground game, but he's got such a lead. republicans don't sound like the party of limited government very much, no one is talking about cutting spending, reforming entitlements, et cetera. democrats are not talking about some of the issues we would expect them to stand up on, protecting civil liberties or being a little bit skeptical about the use of american power overseas because i think some of the populous bluster has crowded

we'd like to hear the parties talk being. >> that's a good point. jared, let's talk with one of those issues, tax reform. it's something that both sides agree needs to be tackled, however, we've gotten just about nowhere with that. i wouldn't expect anything to change in an election year. >> right. >> but beyond that what do you think happens with tax reform? >> you can't turned around in washington without bumping into a politician who doesn't want to lower the corporate tax rate because our statutory rate is high, but then broaden the base because we have so many loopholes that the rates that corporations typically pay, especially multi-nationals is pretty low. as you said, unlikely to have much happening in 2016, we could see something like that down the record. that depends on who gets elected president. >> thank you for jing us today. >> thank you. now here is a look at what's making news as we head into a new week "on the money." it's no surprise that amazon is number one in sales in

figures have been tallied up. more spoke shocking the scope, they took in $22 billion in sales this year. that was an astounding 26% of all e-commerce sales in 2015 according to a market research kl company. that's up from 22% last year. after a year filled with violations an volatility the dow and s&p 500 end the the year close to break even. the holiday shortened week saw stocks fall. the home index prices climbed slightly higher in december. led by "star wars" the u.s. box office closed at a record year, movie ticket sales hit the $11 billion mark in 2015 for the first time, that breaks the record of $10.9 billion that was set in 2013. up next, we are "on the money." it's a new year, so what's on deck for tech? from virtual reality gaming to driverless cars we will talk to the experts about the biggest

and later could you handle a workout led by one of the toughest men on the planet? meet the entrepreneur who hired a navy seal to live with him and train with him for a month. and right now as we head to

why let someone else have all the fun? the sometimes haphazard, never boring fun. the why can't it smell like

the learning the virtue of sharing fun. why let someone else have all the fun? that's no fun. unleash the power of dough. give it a pop. the consumer electronics show is kicking off on wednesday, that's the annual event that showcases n inew technologies from auto makers to gaming and everything in between. but what technologies will make the biggest impact for you in the new year and which ones will fade out? joining us right now is jordan crook, she is senior writer at techcrunch. also dana coal man who is the managing editor at en dwajt. welcome. >> thanks for having us. >> there is a new amazon entrant into the personal assistant,

from apple. >> it is a speaker that sits in your home, connects via bluetooth and wifi, let's you ask questions the same way you would ask siri a question, ask about the wle, put orders on your amazon shopping list and you can also control different smart electric onks in our home. >> can you show us how she works. >> i can say, alexa, tell me the weather. >> right now in new york it's 47 degrees with cloudy skies. >> so i think what's important is this is a $179 device, it's not very expensive. what's important about it is right now there's a million different connected gadgets that you can put into your home on your wrist and they are all speaking to wifi, but they all require a different portal to use them or interact with them. you have to go to one an after another after another. devices like this like siri or google now allow you to have a single interface where you can react with all of these devices that's going to make or break

don't want to spend 40 minutes getting their home adjusted to the right settings. >> let's talk about hoverboards. this is definitely the hot item for a lot of kids, my kids are asking for them and i think they're cool but i hear these stories about fires and explosions >> it really was a hot item. lots of people even in my own facebook feed i saw unboxing these hoverboards. i can see why. i mean, they seem fun to use until you go splat on your back. >> right, or until it blows up. >> or it blows up, yeah. >> there's a hot item. >> right. but i can see why they are appealing, but they are indeed a little dangerous, airlines have banned them and videos have gone viral, the latest is mike tyson taking a fall on his back. they are a little difficult to use. they're sort of like segues without handlebars. >> let's talk a little bit about driverless cars. we keep hearing they are just in the future in the not too distant future. is 2016 the year we see driverless cars.

you're talking about when you say driverless. if we're talking about getting into the car, laying back and watching a movie on your ipad that's not going to happen in 2016 but we're always seeing steps towards it, all the way back to when car makers introduced cruise control. the camera that is viewing from the rear view and giving you a picture that's learning about what the car can do in the future to do that for you. >> sure. >> even toyota said in 2020 they want the car to take over for you on the highway. so, you know, the highway is an easier place for the car to match signs and other cars and take you from one ramp to an off ramp. and tesla has cars that can actually tell the speed limit on the signs on the road and slow down or speed up. you're going to see incremental steps towards it and there are steps that are working on it. i think the bigger question is will a big tech company win the driverless car race r will an auto maker win it. we have google and apple working on the same stuff bmw and audi are working on. >> what about virtual reality

what are the newest coolest things you've seen it. >> we saw samsung come out with a virtual reality headset priced at $99. it's definitely more affordable than many of the other virtual reality head saturdays we've seen. "the new york times" used virtual reality to help tell stories for readers. so i think it might not become mainstream exactly, i don't think everyone is going to have virtual reality headset, but i think it's going to enter the lexicon for a lot of mainstream people out there. >> thank you both for being here today. >> thank you for having us. up next, we are "on the money." entrepreneur jesse itzler wanted a challenge so he hired a navy seal to live with his family, train him and push him to the limit. and later, winter getaways, whether you want sunny beaches or snowy slopes, we will tel why let someone else have all the fun? the sometimes haphazard, never boring fun. the why can't it smell like this all the time fun. the learning the virtue of

fun. why let someone else have all the fun? that's no fun. unleash the power of dough.

some entrepreneurs are born risk takers, game to try just

for jesse itzler after co-founding one company that he sold to warren buffet and working with another startup sold to coca-cola the next risk he took was personal. he hired an accomplished navy seal to move in with him and his family for a month long experiment in personal improvement. that's the story in living with a seal, 31 days training with the toughest man on the planet. when i spoke with him recently i asked him how he came up with this idea and why he did it. >> like so many of us we want to get better in a different buckets of our life and i really wanted to get better in the physical budget. i met seal, as he is called in the book, at a 24-hour ultra marathon and i was doing it as a relay team and saw him by himself all alone doing the entire race alone. >> when you say -hour marathon, running for 24 hours straight. >> yeah. >> you have teammates you are passing off a baton to and he's passing off the baton to nobody. >> to nobody. >> that's crazy. >> crazy. and the race was self-supported which means you bring all of

we went a little overboard, we had a tent and we had food and masseuses and he sat by himself alone in a fold up chair with a bottle of water and crackers for 24 hours and i'm like, whatever he has in his mind, i want a little bit of that in various parts of my life. i will be a lot better off. >> i can understand that. the normal response might be to say to somebody, hey, can you train with me for a little while but you went full board. >> i cold called him, i googled him and said i want to come out and meet you. he probably thoughts i was nuts but i got on a plane and after chatting with him for a couple minutes he had so much passion and determination and there was a magnetism to him and i said -- i asked him to live with me. >> did you ask your wife first? >> after. >> oh, boy. >> honey, we're having a guess guest. yeah, i called sara afterwards, my wife, and i said, i've met this unbelievable guy and i asked him to live with us, so we

>> you have a forgiving wife. we will give her big props for that. what happened? how did life change when the seal moved into your house? >> the first day that he moved in he decided we were going to do a pull up test, see how man pull-ups i could do, so we went down stairs and i did eight kicking to get over the bar pullups, i squeezed out eight, he said rest for 30 seconds and do it again and i got six, he said rest, try it one more time and i could barely do three. i said, all right, i'm done. i couldn't feel my arms. he said, you are not done, we're going to stay here until you do 100. he taught me right there on the spot that when i thought i was done, there's so much more in my reserve tank and that was just something that he did every day. every day he had a saying that if it doesn't suck we don't do it. and it sucked. >> words to live by. >> yes. >> what do you think the worst thing was that you ever had to do that you weren't sure you could possibly do? >> we did this thing he called the 4-4-48 which was every four

would run four miles for 48 hours. it's basically a marathon one day, a marathon the next day but with no sleep. >> okay. that sounds awful. those life lessons are those things that translate beyond your personal life and into your career as well? >> definitely. he had a theme of just getting uncomfortable, being comfortable getting uncomfortable and really pushing your limits and seeing how far you could push your limits and that's something that, you know, has just been very rewarding for me. >> would you do this again or are there other life experiences that you're planning to do as a result? >> i'd like this to be a series where i live with interesting people, as long as my wife lets me or as long as she will let me. it's one thing to hear about someone or read a book, but when they come into your life and you can spend time and some of whatever they have, their edge or whatever makes them tick rubs off on to you then it's really powerful. >> jessie, thank you so much. >> thank you, becky. >> i appreciate it. up next "on the money," a look at the news for the week ahead. and vacation steals and

bargain on a winter get away? we've got the travel tips you

tomorrow on our show and on our guest you can go to our website otm.cnbc.com and follow us on twitter @"on the money." >> here are the stories coming up that may impact your money this week.

supply management releases its manufacturing index for december. on tuesday, auto makers will announce last month's car sales. on wednesday the federal reserve will release minutes from december's interest rate meeting. thursday we will be getting a read on the retailers with december's chain store sales. and on friday we will see how many jobs were added to the economy and where the unemployment rate stands. by the way, happy birthday king, elvis presley was born on january 7th, 1935 in tupelo, mississippi. travel is about to become more expensive, air, hotel and ground transportation prices will increase i the new year as an improving global economy and stronger demand outpaces increases in supply, at least that's according to the american express 2016 travel frast. there are still deals to be had, joining us is teri johnson, she has some recommendations. teri, thanks for being here today. >> of course, thank you for having me?

bargain where should i believe looking? into there are great travel barringness out there, to start there are norweigian airways, they just launched their direct flights from new york, boston and washington, d.c. to montinique and guadalupe. this is the first time in 20 years that there is an airline flying to these destinations, the flights start at low as $79 one way. >> what? >> yeah, free wifi and free live tv streaming. >> give this a try when you still can. >> these deals are only lasting until this april, the end of april. >> i'm concerned about stretches my collars dollars, what are some of the best ways to do that? >> you can go the all inclusive route, there are great deals, especially for family vacations. if you were to go to the websites of these resorts and sign up for their newsletter, sign up for their flash deals, you can find really great specials, but you have to stay pretty active on social media to really find these great deals.

>> amazing places to travel with kids, places i florida, you can go to the sand pearl beach resort in clear water beach, florida, focused on the wildlife eco friendly adventures. go to places like costa rica that have chocolate rain forest tours. >> tell me that again. >> some of the chest chocolate comes from costa rica, they tabacone resort you can find good adventures for kids that teach them about the environment, there's free planting activities, wildlife, volcano hiking, all sorts of things for families that have kids that are super, super active. >> what about if i'm looking for something super easy? you mentioned all inn clue testify before. >> all inclusive is great, also cruising, cruising you can get on board, river cruising, viking river cruise is a really good one, they have a lot of good deals where you can get sometimes two for one, sometimes

especially if you book in advance. these river cruises they are going no matter what. >> fantastic. teri, thank you so much for the hints. >> thank you. that's the show for today, i'm becky quick. thank you so much for joining knee me. next week the affordable care act is due for the six-week checkup. bay area costs are rising but it treatment improving we will check it out. >> each week keep it here, we're "on the money."

why let someone else have all the fun? the sometimes haphazard, never boring fun. the why can't it smell like this all the time fun. the learning the virtue of sharing fun. why let someone else have all the fun? that's no fun. unleash the power of dough.