>> i'm monica malpass on inside story, the latest poll on the race for pennsylvania governor still has the incumbent losing, but turnout is key, can pennsylvania governor corbett pull it off? let's get the inside story. welcome to inside story, we want to welcome terry money -- madonna who did the poll. the 20 point difference between the two toms, tom wolf and tom corbett shows wolf ahead with likely voters and undecided of 12, so it would make up the gives and registered voters had an 18 point difference with wolf over corbett.

what's interesting it will boil down to turnout. you have a poll that shows a different number if the turnout is what we think which will be low. >> here's the good news for governor corbett. in the poll that we did for pvi in august, the governor was at 25 points down. he is 17 points down with most registered voters we're talking about a seven-point gain. the good news he is bringing republican voters back, you can't be 20 or 25 points behind as the muhlenberg poll shows the quinnipiac shows without losing your own party you're not doing well. the governor is up to 62% of his own party's vote that's the good news. the second part is that he must do better among independent voters particularly those who live in the philadelphia suburbs. it's impossible to win an election if you're a republican

in this state if you don't win the philly suburbs and lehigh valley, north hampton, bethlehem, allentown, big cities up there. the fact of the matter is he is doing better, but he is not doing anywhere near enough among independent voters and we'll see how that plays out over the next, oh, gosh we're down to -- south side of almost five weeks. >> let's run throw the graphics and have you weigh in on them. regardless of how people plan to vote, many perceive that tom wolf will win, 58% think the newcomer with no political and he do will beat the incumbent over 19% for corbett and 60% think the state is off on the wrong track that weighs in only a quarter thought tom corbett was doing an excellent or good job is our next graphic. it makes it a hurdle for the current governor to overcome.

when you said turnout is key it makes a 1 or 2% difference which would help the incumbent. >> the bigger problem the governor has is this. there's a perception he cut education. education for the first time in modern historical is the single most important issue in the governor's election, normally it's the economy and jobs and sometimes crime. the governor is right they are spending more state dollars and he did inherent a problem, a billion dollars of stimulus money went away, but the narrative in the vast majority of five hundred school districts including philadelphia every fall has been the same. teacher layoffs, staff cutbacks, program curtailments, property tax hikes, at the ground level where people live where they see the reaction its been cut, cut,

cut and that's the single most important problem the governor has. the second problem as this is important his own party in the legislature hasn't given him two of his big goals, pension reform and liquor privatization. >> that doesn't bode well. >> no, so he has problems with his own legislature, he is doing better with his own voters and hadn't won the narrative of education spending. him if you're tom wolf, and they is the final point almake, you're tom wolf and have a 20, 25 point lead you don't have to be a superior candidate. you only have to be an acceptable alternative. when you're criticizing tom wolf you're not being specific -- >> it's working for him. the narrative, 84% have said they have seen some of the ads

whoever has the biggest war chest controls the message on tv. >> they boston have big war -- they boston have big war chests. the same number of voters have seen ads for both candidates. it's not like one candidate is -- >> dominating. got it. >> how many people have changed their mind they have seen an ad. one in every ten voter who has seen an ad changed their minds, but they broke evenly. if the candidates didn't have the money, imagine if one candidate was out spending 5 to 1. we might see a different narrative. television is dominating this campaign. pennsylvania is a tv state. >> and we have a poll coming at the end of the race before

election day. traditional last weekend in october. >> what would you predict we'll see in that poll. >> we'll take a look at the horse race again and see if the commercials have had any effect. no one doubts, governor corbett will make history. >> one way or the other. >> he'll make history if he loses he'll be the first incumbent governor seeking election that has lost. if he wins, i don't know no beanlt -- incumbent governor has been this far behind at this point. at the end of the day on november 4 governor corbett will make history, what history remains to be scene. >> we'll talk about this with our panelists who join us next. terry, thank you so .

>> welcome back to inside story let's meet our panelists we'll reintroduce at terry madonna, na meeks, and similar platt -- larry platt journalist, thank you for being here. any surprises we're getting closer and it gets tweaked here or there. no, because what people are hearing, the debate, i want you to know tom corbett is coming out fighting, he didn't mike

wolf look good, wolf is like katherine cane she she was at te right place at the right time, neither one knows what they are doing. >> reporter: he assigned -- he signed off on the cigarette tax hikes. >> we need a sustained funding formula for the schools, not just in philadelphia, but across the states all 500 districts this is only a drop in the bucket. this is our heritage in philadelphia. >> wolf did frame corbett in the debate as a failure on the economy and education even though he said he heaterred -- inherited this from the if he fl government.

>> ink wolf came out -- i think wolf came out as a failure in the debate. i have never seen a candidate less prepared and less interested in debating an issue. fact that he has a secret tax plan and not reveal it. and when you talk about cutting education, i don't want to talk about statistics, you are running for governor you should have a plan that you share with the people. i thought it was near disqualifying, if he is this bad in the second debate, i think what terry talked about the little bit of a movement that corbett made this is not over. >> he did say he was interested in imposing a serve ascertains tax on the -- server serverrancn the gas industry. >> he did not take the

opportunity -- i understand you got to lead, you want to sit on it, but taking that safe route could be a problem. i talked to people in the streets, they are saying we doughnut see any excitement for tom wolf that could pour -- portend a problem. watch the polls. i wouldn't be surprise if the final tally is 4, 5, 7%. >> isn't when you're not specific about your financial plan isn't it easy to be a target. wolf is going to raise taxes it's an easy way to plug that on him. >> as a voter i was insulted by this performance. this is a job interview, you have to make an affirmative case why i should higher you. i'm thinking about writing in rene amoore.

>> thank you. let's talk about the cigarette tax it did pass after the last minute stall and delay tactic. $83 million a year will get half of that through this fall to help the schools. it's not the final solution, rene, but it's a help. >> it's good it did happen. i have to agree with nia it's not going to do more to do long term. when are are we going to getting together and say this is how it's going to be this is where the funding comes or it's going to be a cycle over and over again. >> one other point, the long term future lies in the funding commission that is at work. what we have to stop doing is giving schools a percentage hike on the same money they got last year. we need to get a funding formula that takes into account a whole variety of the situations that

schools faces. poverty, students with disability. we need a funding formula that's fair. >> not just heads in the classroom. >> of course not. a funding formula that would dramatically help we need stable funding. we talked about the billion dollar cut, whether it was a cut or not, we don't need to go there, the fact of the matter is we need an assessment of school finances what are the real costs, what can be done to bring savings. 20% of school district costs. >> meantime the third straight year. >> a third of that goes to pension costs. >> one of the problems that we have we don't have leadership reimagining what choose need for the 21st industry. we don't drive the same cars in the 50s, why do we have the same type of school buildings and approach to education this

is the opportunity to coal less the entire -- coal coal less the entire city. get to the families and the students and the teachers and say what is the district we need to have. >> the pennsylvania saa scores not looking good, math, reading all of it. >> what philadelphia needs to do is show the rest of the state it will address it's only issues for example, philadelphia has a $2.6 billion budget yes it's been cut, but you should be able to educate 200,000 kits on 2.$6 billion. at her request talked about the cost -- terry talked about cost going to budget, and it's going to debt service, 45% of that gets to the classroom. >> it has to be better communication with everybody involved. you have to bring in the parents, the community,

organizations, businesses they can help don't band-aid, get people together, whose he is going to be the person that's going to do it. >> let's talk about new jersey, the revel casino was supposed to to go up for auction. the florida bird who low balled it, is waiting on pins and needle and not so happy. he wants to do turn it into a university, make it into a place where we solve all the big issues of world and where we dump our nuclear waste and more. what do you think is happening. >> i don't see a whole a bunch of other people running to the revel, i wound be surprised if he gets the cheaper than what he thought he would bid it for. the waiting game to see if somebody coming up with more money, i don't see that happening right now. >> 3,000 people who get laid off would like that news. >> if you look around state by

state we are all doing gambling, internet gaming that's next. we're all doing gambling, the amount of increase in the folks gambling does not make up for the increase in competition. i think we're only looking at the beginning of a bigger problem where everyone depends on gaming revenues to funds programs. >> it's a net loss to the economy. >> reporter: that's right the gambling gravy train is over. i said before, that earlier in the last ten years, gambling has been the crack cocaine for politics politician, because it's easy money. now you have oversaturation and economic development. i meant redistributes money that's being spent on entertainment. >> let's talk about the hate crime that's raising it's ugly head in the philadelphia area. three people were adler for gay

assault on a couple in philadelphia a couple of weeks ago. it was a vicious attack that left them hospitalized for a while. pennsylvania does not have it written in the law that attacking someone whether they did or didn't, the courts decide if they did and if they found they attacked them because they are gay that's not adjudicated that way, the penalties are much lower. there are several legislators that are trying to change that is that going to happen? >> this was rep -- we have to stop it by having the legislators change the law. >> we did have it until it got thrown it was seen as unconstitutional back in 2008. they were trying to push it in the senate, it's being pushed in the house side. there was a rally last week at

love park to say hey we need to stands up for it, what's scarier, people didn't know this law didn't exist, now they are waking you mean saying why don't we have it. >> one other related point, pennsylvania does not have a state law that makes it illegal to discriminate based on sexual orientation for employment and housing. now i polled on that, the voters of the state say we ought to have that, if we have it for other consideration, why not sexual orientation. it's not directly related, but it is in the sense that it's another area of that needs to be covered by state law. >> and then you have to educate our voters. our voters are not paying attention or not hearing. or are we communicating enough. disability is the same thing, that's not in the state law they are pushing council women and

jimmy kenny introduced something they would like to see in the state happen on a city level. until it hams on the state level it could be invalidated on the city level. >> because this issue came up with the attack a couple of weeks ago, brendan boyle hopes to get legs with this. >> one of the good things about this, it is a terrible act, but one of the positives is a group of people acted and does not wait for superman to fix this. there's an artist and activist who started an an line petition and started fanning the flames of outrage and that's what i like to see is citizens take action and not wait for a politician to fix things. >> let's go to national and international news, president obama spoke built threat of isis and -- about the isis and

airstrikes within the syrian borders. the threat of the islamic nation has been in the forefront of everybody's minds are we starting something that's going to be an open-ended yearlong issue i won't call it a fight or war involving american money and we're spear heading the effort at this point although he is trying to get other countries involved is this a long term mess. >> it's an evolution where we're seeing war and conflict. when i listened to the president's speech it harkined me back to his lecture in his nobel peace price. he said we are not nations against nation, but ideologyies against factions. we've seen arab nations step in,

saying this is not enough. it's like the united states waiting for german germany come in and save us. the arabic states need to step, they are starting to, but not enough. >> the president said really we have no choice. >> reporter: i think it's a mess, but it's one like america has to engage, because america doesn't lead on something like that is no one does, but i do think it's not just about military action. this happens to be a war of ideas, and activating moderate muslims nia is right that's the cay to overcoming this -- that's the key to overcoming this, take a page from the marshall plan. being the good guys again. >> pentagon member said it's

going to be a multiyear complex. >> we have to offer a different vision from disaffected young people. there are people coming from europe and the united states there's a war against islam. if you have islamic people involved in the battle you take the legs out of that argument altogether. >> are we indirectly or hurting or helping in syria? >> we have no choice when a large portion of syria is controlled by isis. remember there are big differences here, this is an organization that has at its disposal 3, $400 million which we are trying to get rid of by bombing the oil refineries. the fact of the matter this is a worldwide threat this is not contained to the middle east. i agree with what my colleagues have said be we have to take this seriously, we have to deal with radical islam this is a cultural war against women it's

against modernity, they live in the middle ages, they would completely transform the world. only america can play the key role. can we do it along? no, of course not. about you it's up to american leadership to pull this together and we need to put the resources to fight it properly. >> all the world leaders were at the u.n. except for putin who has his thing going with ukraine he didn't bother to show up was that a mistake on his part? >> absolutely, we all need to come together and deal with the issue, it's coming to all over

>> hello again time for inside stories of the week let's start with larry. >> reporter: there are a lot of

young people making change in the school district. spring word collaborative that takes on the achievement gap it's a recomprehension program kudos to him we need more like him. >> rather than being upset at the headlines of young black women doing the wrong thing, two african-american women have come together sister circle a free program for girls starting temple university saturday october 4. >> reporter: monica, kudos, rnc that started a new website gop vote.com we're excited about that, to help with awareness for voting. >> medical marijuana passed the state senate 43-7. now this bill has limits, you can't smoke it, it's pill form, it's oil base and moves over to the house where i don't think it's going to pass. the majority leader is against it, the governor is not entirely

on board, but it probably has a majority of the house not likely to come up in two weeks that remain in the session. >> we'll have to check back in two weeks and see how close you were. thanks to our insiders, thank you for your time and your thoughts, thanks for watching. we hope to see you back here next sunday morning.

>> announcer: starting right now on abc's "this week," attack on isis. martha raddatz on a ship in the middle of the action with an extraordinary inside look at the round the clock u.s. war effortu and breaking details on the new fears about terrorist sympathizers here at home. then on the road with house speaker john boehner. will he call for american ground troops to join the isis fight? plus, what he'll tell the president if republicans take over congress. and bill o'reilly on his latest page turner. his stunning take on the death of a world war ii legend. who does he think ordered a hit on an american war hero? from abc news, "this week with george stephanopoulos" begins now. good morning. i'm martha raddatz, and today