>> tuesday is election day there's some hot races around here, who's coming out on top? let's get the inside story! good morning i'm tamala edwards, it's a holiday for political junkies, election day is tuesday. let's dig in first up we have f and m pollster, terry madonna and dom giordano and christine flowers. terry we'll start with you because you have a poll coming out this week. you showed that the gap has shrunk between tom corbett and tom wolf looking ahead to tuesday, can it shrink more?

>> it can shrink more. there's one word that explains the closing of the gap. taxes. it's the effective use that the corbett campaign has made the notion that we're going to have a gross income tax. it's allowed the corbett campaign to make the charge generically. wolf is a tax spend liberal. it's the overall message it comes out a bunch of ways and it's very effective to close the gap. >> you look at the commercials and it gibbs you pause. fed put those spots up earlier in october, would we be having a different conversation now? >> governor corbett didn't have a good first 3 1/2 years, he lost on education spending which was the single most important

issue. i think another reason not as important as the taxes, after the first debate we saw a different corbett on the campaign trail more focused and more energized more precise about what he would say. we saw a different campaign. for wolf it's been a little rope a dope. i have a 17 or 20 point lead i'll coast and won't say very much. this is an election, 90% about the incumbent. if the incumbent has a 35% job performance on average, what does tom wolf have to be. here's the way i think about it. if you're leading an incumbent by double digits you only have to be an acceptable alternative to the voters. you don't have to be superior. you just have to not make a mistake. >> i think he was sort of lulled into the sense of security that he got when he was so effective in the primary. i mean the primary was the

general for him when he beat really solid solid candidates like mccolder -- mccord and schwartz and mcginnly. corbett came to this game too late. he was an effective attorney general. unfortunately else he is his worst self promoter. the commercials are brilliant. the dead pan if it's a choice between child education and taxes i'll pay my taxes. >> later today, tom wolf is going to campaign with president obama. the president having a tough time across the county. is this smart this close to election day for wolf to do that. does he have enough of a pad to do that or could we be surprised on tuesday. >> i think it's smart, because it's a turnout thing.

this is a turnout election if it's going to be turn and be close and president obama is wildly popular in philadelphia. now 4:00 p.m. at the liacouras center on a football game that's last five or six minutes to a football guy, is that smart? they couldn't do it at 4:30, george. come on, i might be late. >> that's right, president obama remains popular in the city of philadelphia and this election for governor corbett, the only thing that could potentially be is a scenario for him is the scenario where you tamp down philadelphia and explode in the western part of the state. i don't think that works, partly because of what has been said. he had to spend so much time, much of what he made up, he made up within the republican party who had dropped out. whenever an incumbent has to

spend as much time and energy as he's had to spend to get back his base it's hard to get across the finish line. >> we know the gop will hold onto to the house, there's question about the senate, mitch mcconnell against grimes who will be out on top. some people are saying cot republicans take -- could the republicans take the senate? >> absolutely. i put it 60 to 70% probability rate it seems to me the democrats even the ones that are winning by a few polls, a few points in time polls are fading there's not momentum on their side. >> the strong female candidates in iowa. she is ahead in the polls. >> every single independent modeler you mention nate silver. you can go through the list have republicans picking up 6 to 9 seats. they walk around with three to start where democratic incumbents gave up their seats

in west virginia, south dakota and montana so basically they need three. they can't lose the mcconnell seat in kentucky. they are not likely to do that. the only one we're looking at is the kansas seat with pat roberts. it's not arguable they will get 6, 7 or 8 unless something falls apart. >> the tea party came out and endorsed roberts that will turn out and momentum is going his way. >> talking about a republican possibly losing in kansas. >> what's the matter with kansas. >> it's due to the tea party that wants true conservatives. >> the senate is in play each last election each time they say the republicans will win back the majority. we don't know what will happen until tuesday it's so close. [laughter]. >> let's come back locally and

talk about some races -- hard reid. >> let's talk about races that have gotten hot an nasty, state senate in delco, wow children out of wedlock, did you pay taxes. >> these are powerful guys. >> he is claiming his internal polling is showing him 9, 10 points up, cain said he has a dog in the hunt. what does it look like on tuesday. >> delaware county, registration is even, they vote locally for republicans. >> that's my county, and the democrats have been polling well they closed the registration gap, but people will come home to the republican party, burr there's been such if it thrown. >> it's a close election, i

think mcgargle is ahead. cain will have a ton of people out on the street knocking on the doors, getting his voters. >> maybe month co-, but i don't think delaware county. >> let's go over to new jersey, jon runyan's seat. we have tom mcarthur running against amy bell guard. she got dcc money, she lost a super pack that was spoas back supposed to back her. >> you want to go to the shorepoints and hang out solidly republican, closer to philadelphia it's more democratic. i would be stunned if that seat changes hands. this looks like a pretty good incumbent year, plus the party

that's held the seat in the past likely to maintain it. >> i would agree with that and i think mcarthur was toughened up by having to run against lonegan. i had them both in studio, i could see he was a more effective guy in the general. >> another interesting fact, democrats hot an bothered about our region saying they would put in money into races for kevin strauss facing off against fitzpatrick and then they took a look at the first round of polling and said guys you're on your own. my question did they get out too early and take the winds out of the sails and that was it for the candidates. >> we have 16, 18 people in the congressional delegation, 13 republicans, five democrats 16 incumbents seeking re-election regardless of party in my humble

judgment all will win on tuesday, 13 will stay democratic. it was given up by republicans during redistricting. the 6th will stay republican with ryan costello. i'm looking in the analysis that i have done i think it's a great year for incumbents. at the end of the year delegation will stay 13 republican, five democrats unless there's some huge change we don't know about. >> i think what you've seen nationally among democrats. i think they resolve we're not going to win back the house unless they protect the senate and not losing ground in the house. >> george you raised the point get out the vote who is doing a better job of getting people on advance and buses and taxi and getting them to the polls on tuesday, it's going to be a good weather. >> are you talking about the suburbs or philadelphia. >> in both. >> in the suburbs, democrat

also. >> the usual. >> there's not a republican base or support there's no big armor surge to get republicans. >> in these areas in the suburbs like delaware county where they felt the democrats breathing down their neck where they haven't had in so many years, the gop triggered this not panic, but an initiative on the gop to actual work when they didn't have to before. >> i'm not allowed to talk about it, bawlings it's my inside -- because it's my inside story. >> the challenge is people dropping out of the political process and finding out whose going to vote. that's the challenge. let's talk about wednesday, when the elections are over, we'll be looking at 2016. one person people wonders about is chris christie. take a listen to this. >> you don't know a damn thing about what you're talking about

except to stand up and show off when the cameras are here, i've been here when the cameras aren't here and done the work. few you're happy to have the conversation when the cameras aren't here, until that time, sit down and shut up. >> he got into it with a heckler at a second anniversary of sandy event. that's new jersey, they love the guy to tell you what he is thinking. but the national picture, does that moment hurt are help him? >> his candor helps him, his short temper hurts him. this is a guy whole have nuclear bombs at his dispoofl. i don't think he can -- disposal i don't think he can control it. >> i like it when they tell

hecklers are told to stop it. christie did it more abruptly and with more effect. >> they are like the matadoras in the rink. i agree with george, the candor is extremely attractive, he has a hair trigger kind of reaction. >> you know, dom you keep an eye out for conservatives what's rumbling. we've had months since bridgegate, how are people looking at him? >> not good because there are so many other candidates that have the korea dentals, some like ted crews and the election i'm looking for after the senate, what does scott walker do, scott walker is an executive and did things in wisconsin that were very tough. >> do you think he'll run for

president? >> he will run. he is not a crass char massic guy. but he has a good relationship with the media. >> christie is considered in the second tier. jeb bush, a good governor of the state of florida speaks fluent spanish. >> not a small thing. >> married to a columbian. no one can predict. >> we're looking at biden and jeb bush, before we were talking about hillary. let's talk about the democratic side. does elizabeth warren get? >> i don't think so. no one wants to make an enemy of the clintons and go that route. she has said she's not going to run. george expimple of and i were talking about the show about it

and i think we both agree she has a lot of time in her career why have it abruptly end with a race against clinton. although she is the darling of the liberal also. >> could begin get in and give hillary a run for the money or is it a coordination? >> it's a coordination. i think people possession themselves to be the vice presidential candidate. >> people like a story and she is a woman and she has been denied before. >> the question is has she learned that she cannot win with just the clinton circle. she has to brooden that circle. >> i this is ceo tom macarthur's world. in macarthur's world, he opposes new laws to ensure women receive equal pay for equal work.

and macarthur opposes a woman's right to choose backed by a group that would outlaw abortion even for rape and incest. for us in the real world, aimee belgard. aimee will fight for equal pay and protect a woman's right to choose. aimee belgard's on our side. i'm aimee belgard and i approve this message.

>> welcome back to inside story, i'm tamala edwards. a bit of a bombshell this week we were wondering what's going to happen if there was a sale of pgw. this week darrell clark came out and said we don't need to have a vote this doesn't look like a good idea we're done with this we've got business lobbiests and union leadership saying i kind of think we should have talked about it. we understand there's lobbying

going on trying to broach something between clark and nutter. they are going to have hearings in december. what was this about going from we're waiting on a study and we're not going to have a hearing. >> let me say i represented the city on this, i'm for the sale. there are positive things that could happen, is a form member of the city council i think it's not appropriate that a deal that could offer a half billion to $800 million to the city of philadelphia doesn't get a public hearing. i don't think that's the right process. >> the republican leader in the state house of representatives, to say a reaction would be an understatement. he said don't come to us with the need for money for the city and the schools when you didn't do this. more importantly if pgw has to come and get a structural change they need changes in the

legislature, don't come to us we're not going to do it. this is not good for republicans who control the legislature in that sense it's not good for the city. >> i agree it's a great deal. it's shows the petty types of things that go on. >> it's petty. >> that's whalts, what it is, tom dom is right. it's going to hurt the city of philadelphia. >> they are saying in december they are going to come back and consider an variety of options does the uil bill come back? >> the bill expires december 31. ful only the administration can start that process, the nutter administration will not do that in the next year, whatever the next administration that's 18 months from now, this has put us in a bad light nationally. uil is publicly traded company, wall street, the nation is

looking at how they are being handled in the city of philadelphia. it's embarrassing. >> we look like a back water. >> the other issue sweeping the nation is uber. anybody with a vehicle can sign up with them. they say they give you insurance and give you a criminal check. the ppa said we don't like it, they have taken seven vehicles and impounded and the mayor said we should get into it. does uber have a future in philadelphia or does the ppa continue to sit on. >> anything the ppa is against i'm for. that's my motto. >> they are losing these medallion sales. this is the future, nutter gets it, millennials love this type of stuff and to show up with riot cops own horses surrounded. >> will you be surprised to see

them being against uber? >> no it's backward. >> they call it an illegal taxi service worried about safety is that realistic. it's just another person in their honda civic taking you to the airport. >> because we're all so secure on philadelphia city council. >> i think uber is having this fight all over the countiment there are legitimate confess about safety and regulation. all those issues could be resolved and what uber and the parking authority should be doing saying how do we get a solution on this, because people love the convenience. >> you have to have a reasonable licensing process, it should not be laborious and deny them. people picking you up, there ought to be a reasonable expectation that her following

regulations. >> how do get people to spend half a million dollars to get a medallion. >> we have the beer distributeship you create this system that has problems and you say it's unfair to the people who are partly of it. >> i'm leading on a neighborhood wine store run boy a mom and pop. >> uberrer wine. >> we have to say goodbye to dom and we'll see you back with everybody's inside stories. this is ceo tom macarthur's world.

in macarthur's world, he opposes new laws to ensure women receive equal pay for equal work. and macarthur opposes a woman's right to choose backed by a group that would outlaw abortion even for rape and incest. for us in the real world, aimee belgard. aimee will fight for equal pay and protect a woman's right to choose. aimee belgard's on our side. i'm aimee belgard and i approve this message. >> welcome back to inside story, you know that dom he is a treasure to the point he has his own candy bar. true to dom it's salty and sweet and just a little up in the. the things he has to do to be worth a candy bar, he had to run

from here and take care of another commitment. it's time to turn to inside stories, terry let's start with you. >> reporter: we remember talking about turnout, 49% of pennsylvania voters turned out in the '06 midterm election. our model 43, 44%, it could be lower in philadelphia if the turnout gets to 30% of registered voters uncork the champagne have a big celebration because that will be something accomplished. >> christine. >> tam just as seamus mccaffery resign this week from the position on the supreme court that's the end of the story. this is troubling this will not give us an opportunity to find out what did happen and what other justices were involved in the other porngate candles.

and justice mccaffery gets to keep his pension. it's a moment to talk about selection. >> there's a report talking about poverty it's growing not just in the of african-american communities but across america. i think it gives rise to the racial tensions and the drop out in the political process so politicians need to look at this issue as a political public policy. >> terry is there any way you would be surprise come wednesday morning. >> reporter: the senate state house rate we can't predict. nationally it would be interesting if we ended up a with a 50 a tie in the united states senate and we get to

watch joe biden preside. >> that's a halloween story. >> it would be entertaining anyway you look at it. don't forget abc news on election night, abc will be your place to be. thanks for watching. i'm tamala edwards. this is inside story

starting right now. a special edition of abc's "this week." your voice, your vote, 2014. two days to go. the critical issues at stake. control of congress up for grabs. this morning, breaking details. brand new polls. who has the edge? how president obama's last two years are on the line. why the road to 2016 starts right now. we're covering every angle. the very latest from america's best political news team. from abc news, a special edition of "this week." your voice, your vote, 2014. here now, chief anchor, george stephanopoulos. good morning, and welcome. the midterms just two days away. so much at stake, control of congress.