>> we've got new poll numbers. hillary clinton has quite the lead. is this just a convention bounce or something bigger? let's get the inside story. ♪ good morning. i'm tamala edwards. welcome to "inside story." let's introduce you to the panel this morning. first up, we were talking about poll numbers, here's our pollster, terry madonna. good morning. >> tam, good morning. >> documentarian sam katz. >> good morning. >> lawyer ajay raju. >> good morning. >> and foreign policy expert ed turzanski. >> good morning. >> great panel, covers all the bases. let's start with these poll numbers, terry. i mean, let's look at these numbers. you found quite a bump for her. the numbers say 49% for her, 38% for him. that's an 11-point jump. we're talking about this on the same day that another poll finds her 15 points ahead. and people will often say, "of course you go up after a convention. it'll come back down." >> not 15 points. >> what do you make of these

numbers? what do they tell us? >> well, actually clinton did go up in '92 16 points, and never trailed thereafter after the democratic convention. here's basically what happened. hillary clinton got about twice the bounce that donald trump did out of his convention. but then over the weekend, when we were in the field last weekend, we had the comments about the khan family, the muslim parents who lost their son, captain khan, in iraq. and that has roiled the political environment like nothing we've seen before. and that story would not die. so you take both of those events -- and i won't even get into the situation with russia and the e-mails and the state department, something that sam was talking about just before we went on air -- and he's just had a horrific week after he was one percentage point behind at the end of his convention. >> and what else does it tell you when you dig in? it's like a household divide. where men are, where women are, where people are with college educations, without college

educations. you imagine a lot of spouses just choosing to not talk about politics. >> oh, well, i joke that democrats and republicans don't want to get married to each other, and you're right. in socialization now, you do have some of that consideration. but we could have the biggest -- i'm not predicting this -- could have the biggest gender divide with men supporting trump, women supporting clinton, that we've had since we began polling. and the differences are profound. we could talk one last point -- region. trump sweeps the southwest and the northwest. white, working-class voters. no college degrees. high-school educations or less. $50,000 in income or less. she romps here in philly and the philly suburbs -- i'm glad you're all seated -- 60-20. 60-20 clinton over trump in the 'burbs. >> we're talking about a city which usually tends to go democratic. guys, let's open this up and talk about the state, which will be hotly contested. as you look at these numbers, do

you think that this is where we're at, or with three months to go, these numbers could collapse at any time and they could be neck and neck? or he could surge again? >> he would have a natural ability to attract veterans. and in the same space of two days, first he trashes a family who've made the ultimate sacrifice and then holds a purple heart up and talks about winning it on a much easier basis. there's just nothing going on up here before it comes out here that would suggest to you that there are any filters. and people say, "well, he's going to turn the corner." no, he's not. he can't turn the corner. he has no discipline. and i think he probably has -- he needs more help than what's inside of a campaign. >> well, let's talk about turning the corners and get our two republicans on board. let's run down the list, guys, of some of the stuff we've got. we've got the khan family argument, russia in ukraine -- "they won't go in." "they're already there" was the

word. his talk on nuclear weapons -- "why can't we use nuclear weapons?" talking about ejecting a baby from a gathering, and refusing to endorse mccain and ryan. this is all in the space of one week, which leaves a lot of republicans who have tried to say, "i'll disagree with him on issues but support our nominee" -- we're talking chris christie, pat toomey, any number of other people -- in this weird bind. can they continue to do this dance where you say, "i don't like what he said, but i'm sticking with the nominee"? >> i think there's a political danger in being with trump, but i think there's something larger happening in the country -- around the world, quite frankly -- that is bigger than trump. i look at it in three buckets. one, there is the anti-hillary bucket, which is no matter what she does, she's corrupt. only thing she's fit to serve is a prison term. those people. second is the bucket of antiestablishment. those are the who want plumbers to fly commercial airlines. why? because commercial pilots are establishment, and let's give plumbers a chance with flying.

and the third are the pro-trump people. those are the people that we're focusing on. they hark back to an old america. they're nostalgic. they're inclusive. they don't want to be -- they see both from a legitimate and irrational fears and anxiety about loss of jobs from immigrants, illegal immigrants, potential terrorists coming in through those illegal immigrants or otherwise porous borders. there are both legitimate fears, and that's what we're not convinced about. we don't know where these polls and the differences are because that bucket could expand for legitimate and rational reasons beyond -- they will look beyond trump and what nonsense he is because they need something other than hillary. that's the concern here. >> i think that's a really good point. we're looking at these two candidates. we should be looking at the electorate. i think that's what you're saying. >> i know you want to get in on this. look, i see it differently. i don't think he can expand his support among the white, blue-collar workers anymore. to win a presidential election, you've got to win independent

voters. you've got to cross the party aisle and go into the other party's camp. you got to win places in this state like the philadelphia suburbs. or in cleveland -- or in ohio, in the columbus area. or in florida, in the i-4 corridor. >> although barack obama didn't do that in his reelection, right? it was a base election. >> no, he won those areas. of course he did. >> no, but he didn't -- he very clearly, he did not make a pitch for the other side. >> well, i agree with that. i do agree with that. >> he wanted to get his base out. i think the point with donald trump is he is losing because of donald trump. >> we agree. >> there's absolutely nothing hillary clinton did at her convention to propel herself beyond him. these are all self-inflicted wounds, and he shows a capacity of a breeder reactor. every time the camera, turns on, someone asks him a question, you

are guaranteed that he will say something that will hurt his own cause. and for people waiting for a pivot, i think sam said this -- >> it's not coming. >> the capacity is not there. >> so then the question becomes the pivot among politicians. we've seen a couple of things. we've seen some republicans, a top advisor to chris christie come out and say -- meg whitman -- "i'm not only not voting for him, i am voting for hillary." but we also see a number of republicans, like charlie dent, who made news this week, saying, "i am not going to vote for trump," but he's also not gonna vote for hillary. there's this weird movement of, "well, what are they gonna do?" are they just gonna show up and vote down-ticket? or stay away from the polls? what is coming from this? >> i think for the gop, post 2012, keep in mind, i mean, you're the pollster, but 1980, ronald reagan wins with 57% of the white vote. he walks into the oval office. in 2012, mitt romney gets 59% of the white vote and loses to barack obama decisively. >> demographic changes. >> so post 2012, the gop mind-set was "we need to have a

bigger umbrella, larger tent. we need to be more inclusive." guess what? donald trump unwound all of that. and now there is gop soul -- the very soul of the party is at stake right now. >> could he still win? this week, we found out people still sent him enough money to close the fundraising gap with clinton. so there are a lot of people out there, even with what the polls are saying, who are supporting him in this state, which is a battleground state. as much as we're saying the wheels are coming off, could we be sitting there on november 9th saying, "but he pulled it out"? >> there are things that could change that could really undermine hillary's campaign. if there was a terrorist attack and the country looked unprepared or inadequately able to deal with this and it was just as horrible as san bernardino or orlando, that could be a big problem. >> we have the two most unpopular candidates seeking the presidency in modern history. so more voters are telling us "i'm voting against the other party's candidate more than i'm voting in favor of my own."

>> well, i think gary johnson and bill weld, if you saw the cnn town hall meeting, there was sort of, i don't know, a goofiness to them in some ways. but they do provide a place for rockefeller republicans, if there still is such a thing, on the east coast. >> or bill scranton republicans. >> or bill scranton republicans to make enough republicans move away from trump. >> let's talk a little bit about another race that's gonna be big, which is toomey/mcginty. also, you had some polling that was on top of that, and it shows that is actually incredibly close. tell us about it. >> yeah, i think the way to think of this race is the better hillary clinton does, you have a down-ballot effect. it's called coattails. we have seen a significant decline in ticket splitting. when ronald reagan was reelected in '84, one out of every two of us split our ticket, voting for the president in one party, and what, a member of congress from another. you know what it was four years ago? one in five.

so if you look at the polls, the polls that have secretary clinton up 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, mcginty is up. the polls that show the race three, four, five, she's trailing. so i think that's probably the biggest factor in the outcome of the senate race in our state. >> they're trying to run two different campaigns. she's saying she wants to talk about economics. he's saying he wants to talk about security. he's got the bloomberg endorsement, the fop endorsement. which one of those is the more winning campaign three months out with this so close? >> that depends on what's going on two weeks before the election, i suppose. but, you know, 1% annual growth rate in the nation's gdp, which is what the last quarter extrapolates to, spells trouble for the democrats across the board. and i think bloomberg -- bloomberg reminded us, if you ask me, that we can split our ticket. because not a couple of days ago, he's on national television at a convention supporting hillary, and then a couple days later is out for pat toomey. i don't know how significant

bloomberg's endorsement is in pennsylvania. not sure how many people know who bloomberg is. >> people who like billionaires know who he is. >> but the message was very clear, that, you know, there are people who -- this is how you do it. you can go here for the presidency and here for the senate. >> and i think sam makes a very important point, because when you take that bloomberg endorsement and also you have mcginty with the barnyard epithet that she launched at toomey, she looked absolutely trump-like. and that's the sort of thing, to go back to all the discussion about the first wolf budget, where she was the one who was pretty caustic, who wound up causing problems. she wound up leaving her job. that's the sort of thing -- the burden, of course, is on toomey to make this point while he's dragging this anchor of trump along. and that's why i think he and others are gonna be distancing themselves from trump. >> he must. >> it's their only hope.

>> let's talk about something else that came out of the convention. the protest was about a number of things. one of the areas of protest was over the donor list. "tell us who's paying for all of this." we've learned some of the names, but the democrats said, "look, we're entitled to be able to release this after the convention." and a lot of people thought, as soon as it was over, they'd get those names out, be done with it. they still have not released that list. and now questions are being raised about the judge who's been over whether or not they had to in connections to the democratic party. my question is more process. she's got a high poll rating. get those numbers out now. don't do it 60 days from now when you don't know where she could be in the polls or what people could be talking about. why hold on to it? >> you're presuming they're gonna come out at all. >> well, they have to release them within 60 days of the convention. >> 60 days to the fec. but i think part of the problem is i suspect they didn't raise as much money as they needed to. and i think there's money to it that still has to be raised. because i know governor rendell was working the phones like a madman. everybody i see in town tells me they got a phone call.

>> did you get a call? >> ah, ajay got a call. >> i'm sure ajay got a call. [ laughter ] >> i think sunshine is the best disinfectant, and if they don't release it, assange or wikileaks will release it. i mean, we learned that lesson now. but i don't think -- i agree with sam. i don't think there's anything that they're hiding. i think they're just trying to get their act together, still trying to collect more money. >> there may be a spillover to the city, that the city may have financial obligations that it wasn't counting on because the party didn't fulfill it. >> do you think the voters really care about this? >> no. >> i mean, she raises a great point. we need to, you know, put pedal to the metal, but i don't think -- >> those of us who read the inquirer like to read stories about this. >> ajay raised a really interesting point, that we ought to just take hold of for a moment. what happens, as we get closer to the election, if suddenly there is a tranche of e-mails that comes at us? and as sam mentioned some time ago maybe off camera, what

happens if some of those deleted e-mails make their way in? and suddenly there is that connection between what she did as secretary of state and what happened at the foundation. now the question is will it hurt her or will it help the down-ticket republican side? because quite frankly, i don't know that he can be helped. >> but here's my question on that, when it comes to e-mails. people have been hearing about e-mails with her for quite some time. more damning are just more damning e-mails. to a certain extent, would these e-mails have to rise to a certain level to not just be more of the same? >> no, i think these e-mails we're talking about are the ones that she's already read and determined were private and personal. this is about yoga and weddings and babies. if it turns out that it's about the foundation and the state department, that is some severe lying to the congress, because they didn't turn those e-mails over. >> you make a good point, but remember, this race tightened up

two weeks ago largely because of one guy, the fbi director, james comey, who called her use of these e-mails careless and reckless. no indictment. boy, she plummeted. >> he convicted without indicting. >> i mean, chris christie at the republican convention -- i won't go there. >> all right, well, i do have to go here and take a commercial break. we'll come right back to more "inside story." >> "inside story" is presented by temple university. remarkable change isn't easy, but for those who take charge, it comes naturally. explore temple's impact. visit temple.edu/impact.

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♪ >> welcome back to "inside story." i'm tamala edwards. let's turn and talk some very local subjects. monsignor william lynn -- we've seen this drama unfold since 2012, where he was convicted for essentially not being involved in child sex abuse, but moving priests around, not doing enough to stop it. he got a three-year sentence. at this point, he's served 33 months of it and 18 months of house arrest. the courts have been back and forth on this, saying essentially they didn't like how the case was tried, saying he gets out. there were just three months left on that sentence. seth williams saying saying he will be trying him for a third time, that he wants the conviction and wants it to stand for the families. who's right in this? some people would say he's pretty much served his sentence. let it go. other people say, "fine, make the point." who's right?

>> it depends. i heard -- at least i read that the defense counsel for monsignor considered this back and forth a roller-coaster ride. can you imagine the victims, what kind of roller-coaster ride that they lived, that they're living? so for the taxpayers, perhaps it's just a point that somebody's making for those who were victimized, especially by somebody who had the cloak of authority, cloak of trust. i think it's deeper than that. i would think that their point matters more than what we think. >> i think this was also a case of institutional failure on the part of the archdiocese, which moved many priests who were allegedly engaged in sexual-predator activities in the church and relocated them to other parishes. and that went on for quite a while. lynn may or may not have been responsible for doing that, but there were plenty of more senior

priests in the system, in the archdiocesan system, who were responsible for that. and i think this is about that responsibility. this is not about a predator. this is not william lynn. this is william lynn, an executive in the church, who failed the families of the archdiocese by protecting their children. >> well, the other question is do we think williams will get the conviction and prevail? will it have been worth it in that way? >> well, so, lynn had gone away for 33 months, right? the conviction against the institution did come. and the church has been hard at work trying to fix what was wrong. i think at this point, to say, "he had three more months to go. i'm gonna go back at him yet again," starts to look more like vindictiveness than justice. >> but what about williams saying, "it's not just that i want the conviction to be upheld. i don't want the story to be that it got reversed," which is what has happened. >> oh, i don't know how many

people are going to accept that. "he was not convicted." i mean, let's face it, the man spent 33 months in prison for reason. >> let's talk about something else that was big this week. the trump taj mahal had been in a big back and forth with carl icahn. the longest strike they've ever seen in atlantic city, and he said, "guess what? by labor day, everybody's fired, and i'm just gonna shut the casino." and this coming in the middle of all of atlantic city's troubles. they're trying to get it together before november or go under state control. what does this mean to the bigger picture for atlantic city? >> well, the city borrowed $60-some million from the state to make debt service payments and to have liquidity. this a city that's bankrupt, and the state of new jersey has decided not to allow it to file for bankruptcy. the loss of these jobs further erodes the underlying tax base. obviously taj is not gonna be paying real-estate taxes. and, you know, this is a classic case of labor shooting itself in the head.

because they were not flexible in terms of making a deal that would -- >> but to the larger point, if i use some words, make a mental connection. vegas or atlantic city. international travelers. family destination. entertainment. gambling. now, 10 years ago, you had only two choices -- vegas and atlantic city. today, 48 states have some form of gambling. other than utah and hawaii. now, think about it. atlantic city, if you put all your chips on just one thing, which is gambling, and you have nothing else around it, that's a recipe for disaster. >> yeah, let me pick up on it. there was no diversification. you're exactly right. and look what vegas did. i mean, it is now a family resort. you bring the kids. who would have thought of that, what, as you point out, 25, 30 years ago? and as i look around, where is the benefit to the folks who live in atlantic city from all this? >> how can you have a venue on

the ocean and get it this wrong? >> go to atlantic city. you seem to be able to find out there. >> you got it. >> very quickly, the numbers came out. we saw the huge fight over the sugary-beverage tax. you know, the side that was against it, they really threw the kitchen sink, everything they had. it turns out they spent about $10 million. the people who were for it spent $2 million. now, usually, and you know this from politics, the guy who spends more money gets a pretty big bang for the buck. he wins the day. they have not won the day. does this tell us something different or new about political skirmishes in philadelphia? >> we're looking at the money that was spent on television. we're not looking at the money that was spent in the halls of city council, which were used to get votes and a coalition of people. there was a lot of deal-making that got done. and ultimately, while the public's opinion about the sugary-drink tax was important, what was probably as, if not more important, was the extent to which members of city council got to take home the bacon. and i think when we calculate that bacon, we're gonna see that there's probably a lot more comparability in what was spent

to pass the sugary-drink tax. >> so jim kenney was very smart in that initial address to say "and you get a park, and you get a program, and you get a program." >> he has the power to do that, and he wanted this passed. >> all right. well, we have to take a short break. we'll come back to our insiders' inside stories of the week. i'm hillary clinton and i approve this message.

how do we make the economy work for everyone? hillary clinton's plan starts here... by making big corporations and those at the top finally pay their fair share in taxes. and those companies that move overseas? she'd charge them an exit tax. then she'd use that money to make the largest investment in creating good paying jobs since world war ii. millions of jobs. you can read the plan here.

>> "inside story" is presented by temple university. remarkable change isn't easy, but for those who take charge, it comes naturally. explore temple's impact. visit temple.edu/impact. >> welcome back to "inside story." i'm tamala edwards. let's get it going on inside stories, terry. >> all right, let's go back to the presidential campaign and the importance, i think, of whether or not donald trump can handle the nuclear arsenal, whether, in fact, he is capable of being commander-in-chief. in 1964, the democrats went after one barry goldwater with one commercial. it aired one time. it's the daisy commercial, where a little girl is sitting in a field peeling petals off.

in the back, a nuclear bomb went off. i think that's gonna be a huge issue for the democrats moving forward. >> sam. >> well, i got up this morning and thought that i would be the fashion plate of this morning's show. and then i walked in and i saw ajay and realized that, once again, a public failure. [ laughter ] >> that's his inside story. ajay. >> how do you top that? world affairs council honored vice president biden with the atlas award, and he gave a stirring speech about the pressing need to find a cure for cancer, the moonshot project. but the young friends division of the world affairs council honored dr. david fajgenbaum, a young research scientist at penn who has the castleman disease, which is a rare disease, but may have also found the cure for it. it was one of the most inspirational nights of my life. >> all right. sam, we'll end with you. >> tam, this week the president told us that isis is on the run in both syria and iraq. the problem is, two days

earlier, nbc reported that the national counterterrorism center has come up with a heat map that shows isis in 18 countries, a three-fold increase over the last two years. they appear to be less on the run than they are on the move. >> mm. all right, on that note, we will end "inside story." thank you to you guys for being here and to you for watching. i'm tamala edwards. we'll see you back here next sunday. >> i'm nydia han along with gray hall. >> coming up next on "action news," a berks county family of five is dead in what police say is a murder/suicide. a close call for a driver when a falling tree misses him in his truck. >> septa changes tomorrow on

the regional rails. those stories and chris sowers has the exclusive accuweather seven-day forecast. good afternoon it is

sunday, august 7 i'm nydia han along with gray hall. >> here's some of the stories we're following on "action news," police say the deaths of a berks county family appear to be a murder suicide. the man once better known as the blade runner is rushed to the hospital from his jail