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wealanagement at charles schwab. panel is back to look ahead to what we're calling separation tuesday -- what i'm calling separation tuesday. i'm trying very hard to make this work. but like our friends on game day, they try to rivalry saturday. well, this is separation tuesday. well, we go through the best case scenarios for all. if trump wins florida and loses ohio, then he has to win 59% of all remaining delegates in a three-way race. if cruz wins, 35% of proportional delegates, best case scenario for him he then has to win 80% ofremaining delegates in order to make it to the convention without contested convention. and if rubio wins florida, he would have to win 98% of all remaining delegates. here's our favorite math i used

if he wins ohio, he's got to win 112% of remaining delegates. alex, you're a math major, right? >> absolutely. >> how does that work out for you? >> two and two -- trump's got three things going into this convention, assuming he's going to lose ohio, he's got a carrot, a stick and a deal. he's very good at deals. the stick is his voters are intense and we're going to want to keep those voters in the republican party. it's going to be hard to exclude those voters. tell them, hey, trump, you've come in with the most votes but you don't have any right to this nomination. >> going to be tough to do. >> that's the stick. the carrot is we've seen ben carson join the trump campaign. >> right. >> what would a trump administration look like? a convention can sort out a lot of those things. and if trump's as good at making deals, you know, that's a card he can play. the problem is this kind of intense emotional violence we're seeing this week makes that awfully tough to achieve. >> i was just going to say it feels like short-term game, long-term pain for donald trump

>> i mean, he hasn't tried. he's so far had no reason to. he's winning by bringing in people who haven't been traditional republican voters in many cases or who've been disaffected in others. he says he wants to be a unifier and at some point he would actually have to start doing that. but to this point there's bee imperative for him. >> hugh, will the stop trump movement ever fizzle? i feel like it has fizzled, but meaning will it ever die? will they ever sort of capitulate and say nothing we can do about it, it's his nomination? >> i don't think so. i think the party would split. senator ben sass is pretty much committed and i talk about turn to 1912 because that was an ir breakup, i don't know how you make a marriage with donald trump and either of the other two. with lying ted, he said it to you this morning. >> again.

>> i think just listening to what hugh said, i agree. i think the never trump movement has said such tough things about him, they're not just talking about his ideology, they're saying he's unfit, he's delusional, he will destroy our party, he'll destroy our country. if you've said those kind of things, and these are big people on record, real activists in the republican party, how can they turn around and say i think they'd be better off, they themselves have said we want a third party, we want to split. we have to create this new republican party for the future. >> barring a sweep by trump, seems like the conclusion is after tuesday assuming kasich wins ohio, contested convention here we come. cleveland, get your rule books ready. the democratic side, anne, has been interesting here because if it wasn't for this republican race we'd be sitting there going, boy, what's going on here? we showed the illinois numbers. i can tell you the clinton campaign is very nervous about ohio, very nervous about missouri which looks an awful lot like oklahoma to them. rahm emanuel's unpopularity may cost them votes in chicago they normally would have. and they're even thinking north carolina's going to be close.

i mean, this week is sort of a replay of super tuesday for them where -- >> but in a more defensive approach. >> absolutely. i was going to say without the many advantages going in we thought she had there. and we really cat underestimate the blow that michigan dealt to the campaign. she was supposed to win there. she expended a lot of political capital and a lot of time and effort to win there and she lost badly. >> and i'll tell you i think the auto bailout hit, i think they wish they'd done it sooner. >> right. >> they sort of blew that one. but they've been wary, alex. it's sort of like they have one foot in the general, they don't want ta alienate sanders, they don't want to anger him or his voters and at the same time they need to defeat him. >> well, bernie sanders is going to be the democratic nominee. >> yes. whether he's wearing a man suit or a pantsuit. >> oh, i see what you're saying. >> the campaign belongs to bernie sanders.

she's the figure head and that's why it's so difficult. >> but she's going to grab it. >> she's going to grab it. she'll end up being the nominee. but it doesn't fit her at all. how can she sell that in a general? >> you know how she sells it? donald trump. >> there's something called the second baseman can't throw to first, golfers can't make putts. she had a terrible week at the reagan funeral and the aids comment, terrible response to chicago, she makes more forced errors than sax and the dodgers. >> that's going way back. >> i must say she came out and said she misspoke. you have to give her credit for immediately saying, exhausted and said the wrong thing about aids and she's in a funeral, she's in the that golden moment, but most importantly she said -- that's when misspoke really works. i said something wrong. >> actually, i'm going to pause here. we're going to play it on the other side because it's interesting she used misspoke because it may be a misremember, not a misspoken.

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here its. ou're d up. 're gry. i'mngry t becausthe to10% the t 1% crols 90%f thealthin cotry. so thank you millennial for lendiyour srt tohe biggest outsider jew in the race, hillary rodham clinton. >> but, doris, that actually is what's happening. bernie sanders has won the message primary. >> i think that's true. >> he won the message. >> this is their sense of rendezvous with destiny. you have to get that younger generation to support what you're doing. you've got to move in that direction. you know what's fun about watching this though it just reminds you politics used to be fun. >> yeah. >> when they did dirty tricks on each other, they were fun

bunch of nuns looking like they held nixon signs -- >> or inviting basically sending too many pizzas to fundraiser. literally high jings. >> we're not getting high jinx but i think that demonstrates why some republicans are in despair because indicates a cruz ticket would beat a. >> she makes the race about him and you can't make the race about her. that's all we have for today. we'll be back next week.

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