>> this is "the chris matthews show." >> ask not what your country can do for you -- >> i can hear you. >> a time for change has come! >> now the elections, once the fever pitch of health care has passed, democrats life depends on changing the subject. the experts see a huge republican sweep this november. back on track, can the president use the next eight months to switch the train from the wrong tropk pele say we're on to the right track for the country? can he switch signals in time? and finally, the robe, nothing divides washington like a battle over who joins the supreme court. it looks like one is coming. twillhe struggle to replace a liberal giveonservatives a

fight they won? hi, i'm chris matthews. welcome to the show. kelly o'donnell covers congress for nbc news. howard fineman is senior washington correspondent at "newsweek." michele norris is host of "all things considered" on national public radio. and michael duffy is assistant managing editor at "time magazine." democrats can't wait to get off of health care and on to jobs. they're terrified that this year, 2010, might be like three other historic midterm years when a president's party was routed. it happened in 1966 to l.b.j. when for many voters, the great society was too great. republicans swept in in huge numbers. it happened again in 1982, reagan's first midterm when democrats came sweeping in and newt gingrich sweep in 1994, a rebuke of bill clinton was the most recent historic year. look at what has democrats terrified right now. the poll asks voters on a scale of one to 10 how interested are

you in the elections coming up this fall? get this. 67% of republican voters say 10. they're ready to go. only 46% of democrats have a 10 in their enthusiasm. howard, that's a big differential, republicans can't wait to vote. how can democrats led by the president get democrats to want to vote? >> well, it's going to be difficult, chris. those cases you talked about before where the incumbent party was swept out, the economy was bad, unemployment was pretty high or getting higher. we faced a situation in the fall where unemployment could still be 9%. we don't know where the economy is going to go. the president has disappointed his base on a lot of issues. so it's going to be difficult. buthe key thing he has going for him is time. eight months from now until election day, that is a lifetime in american politics. he has to hope that number one, the economy continues to turn around and there are signs that it is. chris: how much time does he have?

voters tend to calcify around a vote, gwa, i eent to vote in what month? >> by the end of the summer. they turn their attention now. midterm elections have lower turnouts. the thing he has got to worry about is not only republicans are jazzed up for this, but older voters are the ones who turn out in the elections and older voters are angry at him for a whole number of reasons. chris: what are they? michele, we had the polling evidence that older voters, not just republicans, older voters can't wait to vote. >> the older voters always vote in larger numbers. the president and the party is going to have to convince younger voterso t fall all over again and to show the kind of enthusiasm that they displayed in the last election. more than the younger voters, the big problem, i think, for the president and the party and all those running in the fall will be the independent voters because they are the ones -- i mean the polls show they are vacillating. they're not necessarily happy

with what they see. unless they can motivate those voters they really do face a steep hill. chris: mike, let's talk about this issue, they say in polls i'm mad at everybody. 1982, 1966, 1994, those are wave elections. people tend, no matter what they say to pollsters, they're mad at one party, usually the incumbents. >> usually they vote against something not for it. that's probably what is going to happen here. how and who they vote against is the thing to watch. white house officials use one metric, one measuring stick you hear a lot. if we're above 50%, all of those elections of past tell us we're going to probably lots no more than 12 seats in the house of representatives. below to 50%, it's 40 seats. that m theargin of difference. chris: that's enough to loses the house. between now and howard's july or august moment is try to get their numbers up above and keep them up there as high as they can. that will lessen what looks like

a pretty hard year for them. >> can i also say it's not just about jobs. it's about philosophy. so there is the big sweeping vision in the presidential election followed two years later, usually when the economy is bad, by a yes but. we sort of liked your vision, yes, but, we're going to correct by taking the house or senate away from you. chris: so it's not like the reason candidate where you give back the product completely? >> you take it back halfway. chris: kelly, the biggest problem for the president is that he can't get bipartisanship from the other side, the republicans without at least a few of the people joining on the other side. senate g.o.p. leader mitch mcconnell said he told his republicans two weeks before president obama was even inaugurated not to make any deals with them. he urged republicans not to be seduced as he put it by possibilities of cutting bipartisan deals. he said, "the reward for playing team ball, meaning sticking with the republicans this year, was the reversal of the political environment and the possibility that we, the republicans, will

have a bigger team next year. he said sticking together. don't deal with this guy and we'll have more marbles this year. >> they celebrate with each key vote whether they're holding together on the house or senate side where mcconnell is. he has a wildcard in scott brown, he was so quick to embrace the new republican from the massachusetts calling him the 41st vote on health care. on other issues, brown has to be more moderate to appeal to voters back in massachusetts. in one sense he is delighted to have him on that one issue, but he may be much harder to hold on other issues. they really do play -- >> they have executed well on that strategy. chris: why don't they pay some price for not participang in government? >> i think it's possibly because the democrats haven't framed the argument in that way. they have not made him pay the price that well. chris: for not governing? >> for not governing. the public is still confused about health care. they're not sure what it stands for. they're not always sure what the white house stands for on this.

they did such a good job in framing issues during the campaign. they have done not nearly as good a job during the selling of the health care overall to help people understand the philosophy they're trying to execute. >> it's also because barack obama went big. he went big, high concept, sweeping comprehensive, big, big ideas, even though he allowed the congress to shape the health care bill, but because he went big and conceptual, mitch mcconnell's strategy of sort of spreading tax on the highway to mix my felt fors worked because -- my metaphors worked because voters got worried about big government. if obama had put forth smaller measures that any reasonable person could understand quickly and agree on quickly, it would have made mcconnell's obstructionism harder to carry out. chris: the problem he has and this is the question -- can people look up to the president? like a stevenson or wilson, but vote against him, even though

the polls show they like him. they got respect for his mind, his background, his values, but say he is not connected with my interests, which way is he going to affect this election? >> particularly in a midterm election, they can absolutely send that signal for the reason that howard noted just to say hey, not so fast, so far, so quickly. his goal is to get those numbers to a minimum, not to get to a point where they're not longer -- it's interesting about the republicans. you have had this experience. you call them up. they're not anxious to take on the responsibilities of governing, they aren't sure they want it yet. they don't want to win both houses or even one. we don't have very good leaders. they're not popular. no one knows who they are. we don't have a lot of money. we don't disagree on regulation. if you ask them, we would like to have this wave you're talking about in two years. chris: take away the weakened -- >> the analogy there, chris is what happened in the clinton years. the republicans did then become

part of the leadership and as soon as newt gingrich was part of the leadership, bill clinton had someone to run against. >> we put to the matthews meter, will health care be a voting issue this november, meaning will people vote or against candidates? 10. howard, you and kelly both agree. you first. >> well, i think it's just a way for peopleo put on to health carry lot of the concerns they have, for example, if it's about big government or if it's about in the favorable way, if it's about trying to create benefits. i do think it's a way you can tack on a lot of emotions. chris: that brings us to the whiparound question. here it is. is this election going to be mostly about jobs and conditions, or mostly about concerns about this president's liberal or progressive agenda? >> i think many people will really think about jobs. it is influenced by -- chris: what is more important? >> i'm going to say condition,

but it's influenced. chris: what is more important? >> it's the conditions. the danger does the two are linked. republicans the are saying it's hurting the economy. chris: his point of view or the economy? >> people are going to vote on jobs and the economy. >> i think it's both. if i had to choose one, it might be his role and what he has done or not done. i think i'm in the first. the economy can get better, too. chris: in other words, unemployment drops a bit, he could still get tied for being too progressive. before we break, health care isn't the only full-court press this weekend march madness. obama is sneaking a few peeks himself at the games. he made his picks for the espn audience the other day and sounded pretty confident with his pick of k.u. last year he correctly had u.n.c. he is having fun with this. >> former governor of kansas, kathleen is a we'llious. >> she is a fanatical jayhawks

fan. she is a maniac when it comes to the jayhawks. >> do you take care of kansas? >> i do, because i want her to be happy when she is working on these important issues here. >> well, the president hasn't been so invested in college ball since clinton pulled hard for his home state hogs amidst his home care fight in 1994. he crisscrossed the country to enthusiastic cheers sooee! clinton got the cover of "sports illustrated" and even joked about a tax hike in an election year. >> i said i was going to try to tax anybody who bet against my team in the basketball finals. >> and in case anyone doubted the clinton luck, the razorbacks beat duke in a squeaker. comparing barack obama and bill clinton when it comes to hoops is like comparing rembrandt to grandma moses. obama took a turn at play by play and ad libbed this about

his future once he left politics. >> do you want to handle the reay? >> this was a terrific move and he didn't get any help coming back. >> that's well done. you can handle this job if you need to. obviously, you got one that is requiring a lot of your time and attention. >> after retirement, i'm coming after your job just letting you know. >> all right. >> three more years. chris: it did you hear that, three more years or seven, maybe a scoop. sounds like obama is running in 2012. when we come back, we may see a huge battle soon whether barack obama has the stamina to get a liberal leader named to the supreme court. "scoops and predictions" with these top reporters. we'll be right back.

chris: welcome back. the health care push has been the biggest washington fight in years, but this week we saw the

start of the next big battle. john paul stevens, the leader of liberals on the supreme court said he'll decide in two weeks when he'll retire. he is pushing 90 right now and the guessing is he may step down this spring. back when stevens was picked by republican gerald ford, his liberalism was far from obvious. >> he is known as a moderate to conservative judge, but even in chicago, people are going through his legal decisions to find out for se where he stands. right now, for example, we don't know his views on busing, on first amendment cases and on capital punishment. but we do know that he would make the court more conservative than it was when justice douglas was active. chris: he has tund out to be a big liberal. kelly, the last time the president picked sotomayor, everyone liked her, great personal story, ivy league, everything right in her life.

a great personal story. there is some talk he is not going to pick that person with the great narrative, but a onpers who is going to be a real liberal lion like stevens, like earl warren, what do you think? >> insiders say that is a really key decision, do you try to replace stevens with someone who fillings the role that he has played. do look for his birthday in late april as a possible occasion for him to make this announcement. it won't surprise the white house, they're working on it right now. they believe a powerful compelling story is essential. chris: they want to narrative. >> you got to play it out and sell it to the senate but sell to the interest groups and so forth and you need something to talk about because they expect this will be more partisan than society mare faced and -- sotomayor faced and the short list when she was chosen, don't expect it to be the same. runnersup last time may not be on the list this time. chris: the election returns don't look good for the democrats.

59 seats, michele, but not next year. is this going to enter into their thinking? exploit the heck out of the big number right now, pick the big liberal. >> it would be a time to make a safe bet. chris: a safe or a big one? >> bet big. the numbers will change. they'rng goi to pick a fight no matter what happens. they're always trying to face battles. what i hear is a personal story is fine. but they're looking for someone who has emotional firepower in the chamber who is going to be able to take to the members that are on the other side of the ideological spectrum. it's very important to the president, sonia sotomayor wowed him when she had her personal interview. that's what made the difference. he is looking for someone who it cake the strong case who can stand up to judge alito and judge roberts. chris: it sounds like earl warren. >> i don't think so. i think we're in health care mode. sotomayor got 69 votes. there is a broader middle for

supreme court justices than some of the other things that they work on in the senate. i think, even though there is good case to be made they will have fewer votes after this, this is actually -- that sotomayor will be the most unconventional choice that he makes of those he gets. chris: what do you mean by in a? >> he'll come back to the center. he won't move to the left. chris: it won't be like a clarence -- >> there is a broader middle in the senate for the votes compared to a lot of the other things they have been talking about all year. i think it's another factor in the timing and the choice. yeah, stevens may step down, but i think he is also going to make that decision based on partially on what happens with ruth bader ginsberg who is the second oldest person on the bench and has health issues. if he thinks she may stay for a while, he may step down. chris: the wars are the most important, life and death, but picking perhaps the future supreme court here? >> right. and according to the former

clerks of stevens that i talked to, he is going to retire and ruth bader beginburg's situation is a part of it. chris: how so? >> from the president's point of view, as he decides overwhelm to pick, having two likely picks coming up, he has to balance the two of them. i don't think he is going to go in your face left because i think with everything else he has got and all of the other confrontations he has got, he would like to have some consensus there. i think another minority is a strong possibility. chris: i think that, too. >> someone like the dean of the yale la school. chris: the only african-american being clarence thomas doesn't make sense to me. people think like that and he could pick another minority. >> you don't have to go hard most are going to vote with the president's party on that issue. chris: hold the is a us quo. when we come back, "scoops and

predictions." the miracle of high-eed internet is changing our lives in ways we never thought possible. helping us to connect, and learn, and innovate - driving our dreams and our economy forward. now the fcc chairman has released a report that creates a pathway for everyone in america to be connected to the power of high-speed internet. it depends on 350 billion dollars in private investment to make it happen. investment that will be important for job creation and economic recovery. at at&t, we're ready to do our part. in fact, at&t is investing billions to build out and enhance our wireless and wired networks. we applaud the fcc chairman and his vision to provide access to high-speed internet everywhere... including rural america. everyone deserves to be connected to the future... and the future has always connected to the future... and the future has always been our business. at&t.

chris: welcome back. >> i can have a little fun with you. there was so much interest in the past week or so about the house using a rule called deem and pass, which was heard demon passed. it's the self-executing rule, not a great brand for democrats. >> is also not great that it's called the slaughter rule named after congresswoman slaughter. that plays right into the right-wing rhetoric. something you don't hear much about, but it's important. there are a couple hundred nominees that are in the pipeline of the obama administration that have not been acted on by the senate, especially in the trade area and some other really substantive areas. it's really gumming up the works. chris: why? >> because individual senators, many republicans, but some democrats can hold anyone of them up over the most obscure things in the world. that is happening. i think obama is going to make a

bigger deal of that and complain about it more loudly. >> news this week that not only were the folks on wall street getting big bonuses during the banking run-up, but also the people who were supposed to be monitoring the banks were also getting some of these bonuses within the government. sometimes they were small bonuses, a couple hundred dollars for some sort of suggestion but sometimes they were big bonuses. by about 25%. that has caused folks on the banking committee to look at the bill carefully to make sure it doesn't happen again. >> a behind-the-scenes story, eric holder's plan to try khalid sheikh mohammed in a civilian coward has run aground. they are trying to get lindsey graham of south carolina to try him in a military trinalal in exchange of getting graham's vote to build a prison in illinois. they'll probably get the vote. it's not clear that they'll get

their own party, their own democrats to vote for that deal as well. they don't want them in the u.s. chris: tiger woods is coming back, can he ever get back to where he was? be right back.

chris: our big questhin tios week, will tiger woods regain his position as a sports icon? kelly. >> i think it's going to be tough. people may like him, but they won't forget. chris: wil he become an icon again? >> this is so out of my lane, chris. chris: this is america. this isn't about sports. >> we love redemption so yes. >> yes, he will if he deals with the personal side of his story more openly and candidly. americans love that redemption thing and he is still the greatest golfer of all time. >> anything is possible. the story, i agree that the story of redemption is almost as appealing as the story of a fall from grace, but -- chris: what are you society with the attitude? >> i'm taking that attitude. my crystal ball is a little bit cloudy. >> redemption is good. winning is better. if he wins back his wife and wins government tournament, he will be ad.epte chris: he will win the master's and be like babe ruth with some faults on the sideline on the

fairway. thank you, kelly o'donnell, howard fineman, michael duffy and michele norris. thanks for watching. see you here next week. [captioning made possible by nbc universal] the miracle of high-speed internet is changing our lives

in ways we never thought possible. helping us to connect, and learn, and innovate - driving our dreams and our economy forward. now the fcc chairman has released a report that creates a pathway for everyone in america to be connected to the power of high-speed internet. it depends on 350 billion dollars in private investment to make it happen. investment that will be important for job creation and economic recovery. at at&t, we're ready to do our part. in fact, at&t is investing billions to build out and enhance our wireless and wired networks. we applaud the fcc chairman and his vision to provide access to high-speed internet everywhere... including rural america. everyone deserves to be connected to the future... and the future has always connected to the future... and the future has always been ourusiness. at&t.