>> this is "the chris matths show." >> a nskot wt your country can do for you. >> i can hear you. >> a time for change has come! >> account president hold back the republican rampage? can he help save enough seats to hold the senate, even the house? can he and biden and bill clinton rows the base to bo bar a wipeout? can the president arouse the young, the progressives, make those true believers believe again? with two weeks to go, can he do a big comeback? finally, don't know much about government. does the candite who knows

nothing and says so beat the pro who claims to know what's best? you betcha. with us today, major garrett, cnn's gloria borger, david igtius and trying to keep the democrats from sweeping out to sea. before that election, the country also looked like it would toss out the president's party. >> our critics are playing with the people's fears, trying to scare them into believing that things will get worse so their own politicalortunes will get better. the picture of fear and despair that they paint on the network even blues -- [laughter] that a picture of america where she was, not where she's going. chris: reagan's last-minu stay the course message was meant to

keep house losses down. here was the election coverage starting with white house correspondent judy woodruff. >> a referendu on his policies, and in an immediate sense he really hasn't come out of it too badly. >> the democratic tie to protest against re notics did not materialize. the president claimed he beat the odds. chris: this. is trying to pull that off this year. >> i think the pundits are wrong. i think we're going to win. >> if you keep moving forward in the face of difficulty, i promise you, we will not lose this election. we will win this election. chris: i think in sports, kelly, they call that pssing. he's pressing very hard, losing his voice. can he inspire still this time around? >> seeing the sleeves rolled up, the voice hoarse, the kinds of fire that people remember from 2008, that certainly hps to a great degree. but the voters he has really lost are not those that are going to be pushed by that, because it's the argent that we've been waiting for that they don't buy, the whole notion that

things are getting better. they're just not comfortable with that. >> the president is trying to get o there and convince his voters that this election is about them and that it really affects them and that it's about him, because they care about him, right? but he hasn't been able to make that connectionet, and he's got to be careful, also, that he doesn't turn off those independent voters by getting so partisan that they are even more enthusiastic about getting out there. chris: i'm wondering about those independents where they're already turned off to th whole thing, major? >> how do you define victory? how does a president say we're not going to lose this election. they're going to lose at least 35 seats in the house. that's the bare minimum. chris: so waste it they have to prevent? >> well, if the democrats claim to a narrow house majority, that wilconstitute a form of victory. chris: i agree. >> if they hold the senate, it's likely they will say we held our own in the senate and there will be a couple of governors races that we'll pick up and we'll

identify those as silver linings the but the problem is, how do you define your message and what victory is? independents are moving in their direction. chris: let me ask but the president's personality. this gets to the very heart of -- he's become to a lot of conservatives the name for their ping. they don't like him. >> he's become the name for the establishment. this change agent who ignited th country in 2008 has become a symbol of bailing out wall street, of fighting to protect the banks. the debate about foreclosure, a visceral issue. it's fascinating that the president is taking the side of banks. he's saying if we rush to stop foreclosures, we'll freeze up the stem. he's not playing the populist lines th heat has in his pocket. >> you know, he delivered a promissory note when he was elected,aying that he was not going to be conventional, tha t it was going to be different from all the politicians. when you talk to people, they say, you know what? >> it's conventional.

chris: i think you have something there. >> he's differentiated himself. chris: when he went after karl rove, the architect of the bush political strategy, when he named the u.s. chamber of commerce and said they took foreign money and are dishing it out to republicanandates, i think he exposed himself to fire. made himself fair game, if you will. >> of course he's made himself fair game. but the white house has been trying to find way to make the bush gument still relevant. they can't make it on the economic basis anymore. it's the president's economy. but karl rove, within the democratic base, is still a figurehat generates antagonism and anger. chris: i agree with that. does everybody agree that it helps with the base rs because they don't like the guy? maybe. chris: but karl rove fired back at him personally. >> i think all of us would agree that any tough election is not going to be decided by a campaign finance argument. not when joblessness is the number one issue in this country. it's a side issue. chris: how about foreign money? >> yes, but only if you can tie it to someone that deepen's someone sense of economic

anxiety. >> i was talking to a democratic pollster sayingou y raised the issue of foreign money, ding, ding, ding, but what they haven't done is connect the dots. how does foreign money relate to americans losing theirobs? chris: the loss of jobs is etty strong right now and it's because a lot of companies are cost-cutting and getting rid of payroll. >> he has not been a china basher. a fascinati thing to me is he has not been the commander in chief. we're a nation at war. he is the person who sent 30,000 more troops. yo don't hear him talk about it. maybe he's afraid of alienating the democratic base. if he's going to be presidential and lad his party, that surely is part of it, ande don't hear it. chris: would that help, do you think? >> i thinkould. he has to play the hand that he'sctually got. hean talk about jobs, but he is the commander in chief. that's the reality. >> i think that reinforces people's frustration, that he s in fact continued a lot of the bush era policies with that. >> he reinforces the base of

frustration. chris: let's see what they said about this. what's the best way to help the democrats, attk the republicans or -- can people say attack? by the way, gloria -- >> i don't think he has any -- he doesn't hav any gd choice this year, honestly. so if it's a choice between not going out there and -- versus going out there and trying to get your bas out, just as ronald reagan did in 1982, he's got to go out there and try and rally the troops. so it's not -- look, it doesn't work in a wonderful way for him either way, but he's got to do it. chris: i'm sorry, you want to go? >> real quick. the president has to give all he can to skeptical house and senate democrats who wonr if he's going to do as much for them as he's clearly going to do for himself in 2012. if house republicans do take the house, he has to build a predicate for why he's going

to's pose them. chri you said he's going to get tough. >> i allows him to shot passion and fire that some want to see. foreign money is not something that people really can relate to. it's an abstract argument for many of them. that allows him to play a role that we just don't get t see very often. chris: somebody raised the question of whether he's starting to look like -- a lot of people voted for barack obama last time around. a lot of high-toned republicans said, let's give this guy a shot. is he risking losing their support? >> i think everyone knows he has to do it during the midterm elections. he's risking losing their support, given the fact that he he had such a huge agenda and did so many things tha they may disagree with. i think thathey believe that he probably was too partisan. he promised to be post-partisan. no w republicans bear a lot of the blame in this because they had something to prove to their

base. chris: i think he's mr. big argument. it is the populist argument that the big corporations in america d create most of the jobs have done a lot of cutting of employees and used it as an opportity. like rahm emanuel said, let no crisis go unused. he has to make a case against that. >> he needs to make people feel that he and h party are on their side. the democrats have done well historically by protecting peoe. when people are frightened -- it's obvious that people are frightened now. the democrats are like, we'll take care of you with social security. that's an argument that he isn't king effectively. he needs to be, i think, not red hot, but reassuring. he needs to be the president. >> the president understands and his economic team understands the employment situation in our country is structurally differant then it was 15 or 20 years ago. in a globalized economy, you can't turn things around as rapidly as you once did.

he needs to explain that to people to get them to understand why their probls are persisting and why he got some of the stimulus wrong. the stimulus didn't work in part because they just did a multlier effect. if we spend this much money, we will create these many jobs. that math doesn't work the way as it used to. the president needs to explain that. chris: now to the politics. is the cake baked? is the house going -- >> the cake is almost nearly baked. chris: gloria? >> they're doing better in some tight races now. it's moving a touch. but i think the oddsre against them holding on. when i talk to voters they say it's going to be a republican house. >> you know, i'm guessing. i'd say republican. chris: 4-0. i think it's 5-0. before we break, it's a tough year for incumbents. experience is not a plus this time around. and this is nothing new. 50 years ago dick nixon'slogan was "experience count" that was not a good offense

against the kennedy magic that year. for the bigwigs in congress this year, a throw the bums out year is hard to game. even bill clinton this week is trying to help number one democrat in the senate harry reid and had a frustrating time. >> in a normal time after the record he's made and the things he's done. senator reid would be winning this race by 25 points. chris: he's the best. two years ago when the clintons were frustrated by barack obama's ser tuesday wins, hillary clinton gave a big speech painting obama as a man lacking foreign policy experience, as someone risky. and then her campaign rolled out thisevastating ad -- >> it's 3:00 a.m. and your children are safe and asleep. who do you wtan answering the phone? >> i'm hillary clinton and i approve this message. chris: she's up in the office, glasses on, answering the phone. that inspired one ofsaturday night live"'s greatest skits of the year. >> hillary, i'm sorry to call again this late, but i need your

help. >> mr. president, what can i do? >> the c.i.a. just confirmed that iran has completed a nuclear device. what do i do, hillary, what do i do? >> mr. president, you can start by getting a hold ofourself. >> i can't. don't you see that i'm in a panic, a blind, unreasoning, inexperienced panic? >> russians will back down. helping iran is a clear ioolatvin of the nuclear nonproliferation treaty. >> one other thing -- i thi the heat may be off in the white house. >> you'll see a red button. hit that once and wait about 45 seconds. it should come back on. >> oncagain, i a amazed by the range and depth of your experience. and before i go, is bill there? >> it's 3:00 a.m. what do you think? [laughter] chr: oh, my god. anyway, when we come back, why "don't know much" is oppressed this year. no blogy. scoops and predistricts when we

come back.

chris: welcome back. 60% of us say the country is on the wrong track. that's not a record level of discontent of how things are being run right n, but it's way up there. all that unhapness helps the outsiders running for office this year and puts the insiders on the defensive. you see it in the debates. like the california governor's race. meg whitman versus jerry brown. >> if you like the pross that we have in sacramento, if you think this is working for californians, then you should elect jerry brown. because if he goes to sacramento, it will be the same old-same old. >> she's been in the bleachers looking at what's happening in

government. i've been in this government. i love california. i know how it works. chris: and in nevada's senate race, that debate was the other night with newcomer sharon angle taking on heareid. >> i live in a middle class neighborhood, senator harry reid lives in the ritz carlson in washington, d.c. >> she doesn't understand what went on in washington. chris: the journal poll asked -- do you want new people with few ties to the political process? 69% o the highly motivated voters said, yes, they want the new guy. gloria, this is the heart of it. >> it is. but then if you ask the tiqueson, do youant qualified people, do you want smart people? sure, the answer is also -- chris: who's asking those questions? >> answer is also going to be yes, look, i think the problem is that if you have experience, you're tiedo the establishment, you're tied to the way washington works and you're not an outsider by definition. but i think people want the best of both. chris: if they had to choose between who's in for five or 10

or 20 years and someone who hasn't done anything wrong yet, where are they going? >> person that hasn't done anything wrong. they have the decided advantage in almost every race. chris: how abo even whacky? some of these people like o'donnell, like angle, who have said things -- >> it depends on the state. delaware, no. kristine'donnell does not have a chance. angle is competitive in nevada. >> i spent time with sharon angle and kristine o'donnell and theer's what they would say about the experience question. chris: are you related? no,>>o, let's make that cleemplet sharon angle said i was a teacher, i served in the state assembly. chris: she was a teacher. >> yes, yes. chris: that is impressive. >> for 100 votes to reduce taxes from her seat in nevada. so she says grandther of 10, i've got life experience. they define it differently. for kristine o'donnell, she's talking about common sense and

those sorts of things. people have to evaluate i but if you jum tpo wisconsin and you have ron johnson, who burst out of the tea party, too, he runs a plastics manufacturing coany, and so his kind of common-sense experience really has a whole different packa.ge chris: some of these people like sarah palin seem to brag about their lack of knowledge. they don't read the papers. >> we had a political party briefly in america called the know-nothings, who bragged about their sepateness, and that spirit is alive now. i mean, i think that sarah palin is a likeable person. the fact that she's sobviously an outsider has worked toer advantage up to a point. when you watch meg whitman in that debate, the fact that she isrticulate, experienced, a good manager, i think makes the case that she'd make a difference in sacramento, much more compelling. i have a feeling peopl wilel be able to make that distinction. the difference between meg whitman and an outsider and kristine o'donnell and an

outsider -- >> people are just voting yes or no. yes, no. chris: right now jerryrown versus montgomery whitman, which way is that going? >> that race was over three weeks ago before the ho remark from jerry brown or one of his staffers. that has re-energized that race. meg whitman has a narrow th to victory. but jerry brown is the favorite. >> i think jerry brown is fired. >> i think he has the momentum. >> i would bet meg whitman. chris: let's talk about hear reid. >> he's clearly the underdog. he hasn't performed near expectations. democrats are terrified about it. he's going to take a lot of money away from other races down the stretch. chris: so you're betting on angle. >> this is one honestly that is so close. chris: come on. >> no, i can't call it. chris: belly up. come on. >> man up? is that -- no. well, let me give you just an impression. i would say ttha there is a difference between people perc ivingntelligence and elitism, and the outsiders are

saying hey have real world intel jism. >> i think that harry reid can play the reassurance card. he's knowledgeable, and i think that state really nds to be reassured. chris: i agree with you two guys. i have no idea who's going to win in nevada. it wil come down to 100 votes. i think it's going to be so close. most people think jerry. i like jerry. scoops and predictions. [ male announcer ] martin o'malley sworn in. inherits a billion-dollar surplus, low unemployment. o'malley signs the biggest tax hike in maryland history. raids chesapeake bay fund to cover spending. gives raises to top aides. business climate ranks 45th worst in the naon. now 200,000 jobs lost. o'malley covers up jobs report that proved maryland's economy stalled if relected, o'malley willaise taxes again. whether he does, is up to you.

from his frere jacques... [ speaking french ] [ mom ] ...so he decided to study in paris. ♪ to see french masterpieces with his very own eyes. we even linked our citibank account to his so when his account ran low we just transferred funds. i just hope t language isn't a barrier. bonjour. [ mom ] my ryan can be very shy. [ male announcer ] from linked accounts to citi mobile we make it simple to manage your finances. what's your story? citibank can help you write it. chris: welcome back, major. te me something i don't know. >> alex sink, democratic nominee for governor likely to win in flida. put a huge campaign together. don't be surprised if president obama doesn't return to colorado for that senate race. chris: which race is that?

>> that's ken buck against michael bennett. chris: who wins that? >> is close. that's why the president is considering going back. >> lame duck session we're going to talk about that, talk about taxes. they're probably going to vote to extends tax cuts for the wealthy for one year, and the middle class, either five years or permanent. >> again, on harry reid's race, he told me since his last competitive contest, 600,000 people have mednto nevada. they don't know him. they don't undetand some of the things he's done for the state and he thinks that's one of the reasons he's in such a tight race. >> there is already tal at the pentagon that general david petraeus will come back from kabul next summer to become chairman of the joint chiefs and there's a lot of talk about who will replace him. one interesting possibility is miral eric olson, who runs special operations forces, which are really doing the most work out there. chris: does that make him more or less powerful in terms of pulling out? >> the debate that will take place next spring about the

timetable for withdrawal between the president and petraeus will be -- buy tickets for that one. that will be one of the most interesting moments of the year. chris: when we come back, the big questn this week -- in the ends, will the tea party be seen as a boon, a big plus or a big drag on the republicans this year? [ male announcer ] are you paying more and more for cable

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chris: tea party favorites won g.o.p. primaries in three states republicans knead in order to take back the senate -- nevada, alaska and delaware. will the tea party, when all is said and done, be a big drag or a big boon for republicans in this election? major garrett? >> a boon, because the tea party energy will help them retake the house or make it very, very narrow and win a significant numberf senate seats. republicans will have already internalized that they couldn't win all 10, so the tea party will be a net plus. chris: gloria? >> serrt tm, big plus, long term, big problem. chuts: bri this election. >> it will help them get out the vote. >> i think it will absolute energize people. it'siven people a definition for what they're running for. and yet there can be drabacks. >> i think they're both. obviously it energies the right but also the left and independents that are scared of these people. chris: it wasn't mitch mcconnell

and jo boehner that got them hopped up this year. thanks to our roundtable. davidding ignatius, congratulations, you're now a member of the french legion. thanks for watching. [ mom ] my son ryan didn't know his voulez-vous

from his frere jacques... [ speaking frenc] [ mom ] ...so he decided to study in paris. ♪ to see french masterpieces with his very own eyes. we even linke our citibank account to his so when his account ran low we just transferred funds. i just hope the language isn't a brier. bonjour. mom ] my ryan can be very shy. [ male announcer ] from linked accounts to citi mobile we make it simple to manage your finances. what's your story? citibank can help you write it