this morning on "early today" -- we shuffling the deck. romney and paul vie for the lead in iowa, while a surprise contender jumps into third. conspiracy theory. venezuela's hugo chavez makes an outrageous suggestion about cloak and dagger actions by the united states. and holy nativity. clergymen clash at one of and holy nativity. clergymen clash at one of christianity's holiest churches. captions paid for by nbc-universal television hello and good morning. i'm lynn berry. today we begin with campaign shakeup. with iowa's caucuses just five

days away, new poll numbers show ron paul is closing in on front-runner mitt romney and those same numbers show a sudden surge from backpacker rick santorum. brian mooar joins us with more from washington. good morning to you. >> reporter: good morning, lynn. it's clear iowa's social conservatives are still shopping around and that's good news for mitt romney. five days before iowa, the gop presidential deck has been reshuffled again. this time mitt romney's on top. >> this is an exciting time. we're going to take back the white house thanks to you guys. thank you. >> reporter: ron paul has slumped to second but picked up a key endorsement from michele bachmann's co-chair. she says he was one time offered a lot of money to switch sides. he denies 2. >> i believe opportunity to elect conservatives. >> reporter: rick santorum has suddenly vaulted into third place. >> how many times do you hear

this as a conservative. don't try to impose your morality on us. >> reporter: newt gingrich is now on a slide, and he's lowering expectations. >> what do you have to do here in iowa? >> you have to be in the top three or four. >> you have to win either iowa or new hampshire? >> south carolina. >> reporter: the whiplash changes shows that iowa's social conservatives are still looking for the one. santorum and paul appear to be splitting that social conservative vote but as we know, a lot can happen in a couple days. lynn? >> brian mooar for us in washington, thank you. the united states had a strong response wednesday to a second threat from iran to disrupt the world's oil supply, that is, if the west pursues actions against tehran over nuclear program. iranian said shutting them down

would be very easy for the naval bases. president u.s. fifth fleet said in a warning wednesday that it would not allow any threat to traffic in the strait of hormuz saying, quote, any disruption will not be tolerated. even with outside monitors on the ground in syria, reports of deadly new violence continues to emerge. amateur video shows what appears to be arab league monitors wearing vest touring the central city of homs. at times those monitors were forced to take shelter as gunfire could be heard in the distance. activists claim government troops open fire on unarmed protesters killing six, bringing the death toll to 39, in just two days since the monitors arrived. yesterday more than 700

detainees were freed after a human rights group accused the government of hiding the prisoners from those monitors. here is a look at some other stories making news early today in america. north dakota firefighters went to the edge of an icy river to make a life-saving grab. they rescued a back labrador after it slid past his owner's electric fence into the freezing waters. the dog is now in good condition. a texas man didn't get away with much of anything during a recent robbery attempt. surveillance cameras caught the thief stealing an empty cash register from a fast food register. police later found him and arrested him on suspected theft charges. around the country nursing mothers held what they call nurse-ins. this happening at target stores. it happened last month when a nursing mother in texas said she was treated rudely by confrontational target employees

who removed her to a fitting room. she since has started a facebook page which launched the nationwide demonstration against restrictive corporate breast-feeding policies. and finally, 40-degree weather didn't stop one group of friends from having a good time on a new york lake. they braved frigid continues to feed what they call their water skiing addiction. i think one of them had a santa hat on, too. got to love that. for a look at your national and regional weather, here's nbc meteorologist bill karins with your weather channel forecast. good morning to you, bill. 40 degrees, that's nothing this time of year. >> water ski, but it has to be like 90. >> in florida. >> alligators in those lakes, makes me nervous. good morning, everyone. we have a very good cold winds out there this morning. up to new england especially. that's where it's the worst and that's where it's definitely the coldest. we're watching temperatures in areas like saranac lake, very

chilly. northern new england is by far the coldest and the worst out there. throughout the middle of the country it's not all that bad out there. we're at 26 in chicago, 29 in minneapolis. now, as we go throughout the day, the wind will die off in new england and improve. high pressure will build in. clipper system coming down from the northern plains into great lakes will bring you rain and snow showers this morning. it's not too big after i deal. the next system behind that, a little more energy with this clipper system. that will bring a little bit of snow to the northern half of the country. it actually feels like winter in a few spots out there. i know it did in new england yesterday. does today. here are the light snow showers through michigan, more back through wisconsin. i'm sure, duluth you'll have snow on the road. just a little coating in many areas. the forecast for today, the rain and snow showers through the great lakes. cold and chilly, especially new england, but the southern half of the country from denver to texas to florida, still doesn't feel like the late december. that's a look at your national forecast. now here's a look at the weather outside your window.

rain and snow showers, areas like cleveland and chicago. we're not talking much in the way of accumulations in those areas but look at how beautiful of a day. 60-degree temperatures from memphis all the way to oklahoma city. i've been talking about it the last couple of days, lynn. there's a big shot of cold air that's going to move into the country after the new year, so enjoy this while it lasts. >> this is what eve been doing while i've been doing, bill, starting trouble? thanks so much. euro jitters return. gold falls again. and a big bungle by "the new york times." what's causing rumors for trouble in paradise for one of show biz's biggest couples. the heat get get a scare. unbeatens fall in college basketball. a picture worth a thousand laughs. you're watching "early today."

good morning. welcome back to "early today." north korea has officially declared kim jong-un the country's new supreme leader. the announcement came during the announce many for his memorial of kim jong-il, like the funeral the day before brought thousands into the street. hugo chavez is suggesting the u.s. may somehow be responsible for latin american leaders developing cancer. chavez's comments followed news that argentina's president has a treatable form of thyroid cancer. chavez had a tumor removed from his pelvis in june. new at least 16 people are dead after an explosion in myanmar. and, my, how times have changed. the spanish royal family is publishing its salaries online.

king carlos earned $382,000 this year, plus expenses. his son, prince phillipe earned half that. peace in bethlehem. not quite. dozens of monks brawled turning brooms into weapons at jesus's tradition at site of birth. after armenia clergy accused them of encroaching on their part of the church during the annual cleaning. here's an early look at wall street. the dow opens at 12,151 after falling 139 points. the s&p fell 15 points. and the nasdaq dropped 35. taking a look at overseas trading this morning n tokyo the nikkei was down 24 points, while in hong kong the hang seng lost 120. signs of trouble in europe drove stocks lower here. the s&p 500 fell after five

straight days of gains backing into negative territory for the year. the downward spike was accentuated by extremely low volume. alocoacaterpillar led them lower. they were hoarding cash rather than lending it out as hoped, a sign those banks may be in worse shape than previously thought. on that news the euro hit an 11-month low against the dollar and a 10-year low against japan's yen. euro worries hit bank stocks hard here with bank of america and regions financial leading lower. investors drove bond prices higher. the ten-year treasury yield fell below 10%. oil fell under $100 a bare ol saudi promises to offset any losses from a threatened iranian blockade.

gold fell 2%, closing at the lowest level in five months. lockheed martin was awarded a $2 billion contract to maintain support infrastructure for antarctic research. yesterday "the new york times" thought it sent an e-mail to a few hundred subscribers who recently canceled offer the paper at half price for 16 weeks. well, instead, the offer went to 8.6 million addresses. initially "the times" honored the discount but stopped by early afternoon. the paper won't say how much the e-mail gaffe will cost the company. wouldn't want to be the guy that sent that e-mail. coming up, last-minute college football bowl drama. late nba thrills between the bobcats and the heat. plus, in college hoop action, michigan state looks to knock off unbeaten indiana. your ely morning sports headlines are straight ahead. a shot of cold air moved

into new england. your forecast is coming up. you're watching "early today."

good morning. if you're just waking up, this is "early today." in sports, last night's schedule featured two top 20 match-ups on the college hardwood. here's nbc's mario solis with a

look at all your sports headlines. >> good morning. yesterday there were six unbeaten teams in college basketball. now there are four. let's start in kentucky. number three, louisville, had no answer for georgetown's starks, scoring 16 of his 20 in the second half. hoyas with the lead in the final minute with the tip-in. georgetown knocks off louisville. indiana also lost. 17th ranked michigan state with the honors. appling rallies the spartans in the second. michigan state runs all over indiana 80-65. to the nba, the heat got a scare from the bobcats. charlotte down two with 20 seconds to play. forget going for the tie. henderson drills three for the lead. bobcats up one with 12 second left. that's enough time for dwyane wade to work his magic, cashes in the shot for the win. heat escape with a 96-95 win.

college football. cal and texas in the holiday bowl. that's the difference, longhorns take the lead and win 21-10. wild finish to military bowl. air force down seven with under a minute to play when jefferson finds zach for a 33-yard touchdown. they just need the extra point for a tie. they try the fake, it backfires. falcons crash and burn. toledo holds on to win. finally, football players are referred to as some of the toughest athletes in the world but one player met his match at the happiest place on earth. oregon ducks james with the look of tearer on space mountain at disneyland. let's hope he's not as scared of the wisconsin badgers next week in the rose bowl. that's a look at sports on "early today." who had the monster concert tour of the year? which star is literally gnashing her.net?

plus, remember the letter carrier motto about neither sleet nor rain, et cetera? we'll introduce you to the person who should be the postal service's new poster girl. you're watching "early today."

welcome back to "early today" on this thursday morning. with the exception of new england, it's a pretty mild day out there. everyone pretty much east of the rockies enjoy this warmth while

it lasts because the extended forecast now for monday, tuesday, wednesday of next week looks like the coldest air by far of the season is on the way. so, enjoy the 60s and 50s. 58 in kansas city this time of year. just a gorgeous day in st. louis too. tomorrow we have rain showers up from chicago through new england, but that's really about it. really no big storms on the way. if you're watching us on wsaz news channel 3 in charleston, west virginia, see christmas trees designed by local artists, model railroads and original artwork at illumination holiday of light at the clay center. that's your early event of the day. thanks so much. here's an early look at this morning headlines in entertainment. megan fox has been grinding her teeth and has nothing to do with michael bay, the "transformers" director who fired her. she say she's wearing a sports mouth guard because her tattoo removal session to laser off marilyn monroe are incredibly painful. apparently she's clenching her

jaw so hard she's endangering her teeth. youtuu2 was the top grossinr taking in $156 million. country princess taylor swift tour was a distant second with $97 million. katy perry photographed in hawaii without russell brand and her wedding ring is fueling rumors of some trouble. "us weekly" quotes a source saying a mega fight, not just a fight, a mega fight, between the two led the two to spend holidays apart with brand heading to england. e news reports bradley cooper is involved with zoey zaldona. >> who this is. >> i said the same thing. her spokesperson dismissed rumors last month but a source told the website the two are, quote, totally dating. apparently their source is 16 and a valley girl. totally dating. >> she's beautiful.

i just don't know who she is. >> i'm not familiar either. i was under the impression he was dating jennifer lopez so this will have to be worked out in our entertainment segment. news comes to us from knsw in wichita, kansas, where in nearby kendall a severe winter storm saw one postal worker saddling up just to get to work. a blizzard buried roads and residents under heavy snow but that didn't stop the postmaster from living up to the traditional mail carrier motto. she rode her horse through two miles of whiteout conditions just so the little town of 60 or so people could get their mail. there you go. i'm lynn berry and this is "early today," just your first stop of the day today on your nbc station.

4:28 is your time now. it is a chilly morning out there. meteorologist veronica johnson is going to join us in just a moment to tell us about this real winter that is settling in. good morning to you. >> welcome to news 4 today on this thursday, december 29th. we begin with breaking news out of silver spring where university boulevard is shut down right now because of a deadly car accident.. it happened after 3:00 this morning at the intersection of university and herring drive. only one car was involved in the accident. we're told three women were in

the car. two of them have died. we have a crew on the scene and we'll bring you a live report, coming up later. all lanes of rothville pike are open at this hour after a deadly accident shut down the busy roadway for hours. the accident happened during rush hour just short of the beltway. police say a pickup truck heading south jumped the median and headed right at the bus. the bus driver swerved to avoid it. the accident left the bus driver trapped. rescue crews had to use pry bars to free her. she was rushed to the hospital with serious injuries. passengers watched helplessly as the whole thing unfolded before them. >> i heard the noise and the bus kind of went off the side of the road and hit the tree. >> the next thing i know, we hit the tree, just like that. it was so fast.