>> this is the chris matthews show. [captioning made possible by nbc universal] >> the fairness doctrine. president obama's placing his bet on the deal. republicans are placing their bets the other way that voters will say fairness but fear higher taxes. just too damn rich. is mitt romney with his $250 million, his accounts in zurich too far removed to know what life in america about? for that matter is newt

gingrich who breakfasts at tiffanys and suppers at freddie mac. >> helping newt get stopped after florida. what will they do if he's not. hi, i'm chris matthews. welcome to the show. with time magazine. michael duffy. the bbc's katty kay. kathleen parker and from "the daily beast" andrew sullivan. romney's problem is that just when the problem started paying attention, he's looking too rich for the times. he's made slip-ups like the $10,000 bet. and his tax return showed just how rich he is. newt is not much closer to every man than romney is. he'll be dragging along his deals at k street and charge accounts at tiffanys. a poll asked about whether gingrich cares about average

people? 22% says gingrich cares about the average guy. 24% says romney does. when the president framed the 2012 election this way. >> can neither settle where a shrinking number do barely well, where a growing number do well. everyone does their fair share and everyone plays by the same set of rules. >> well the white house, the president included oftenly believes that's going to be how the pie is sliced in america. is that's how it's going to be how it makes it in america? >> i don't think that a candidate has begun his presidential campaign and put class at the center the way president obama did this week. they're making the bet in shig and the white house that with 8% unemployment with 80% of

americans at or near the poverty line, this just isn't a high-risk idea. chris: usually when they're down 60-40, that will get them over the 50 mark. do they hear he wants to take our money and give it to poor people? >> that's exactly what the republicans are suggesting that he has a pro-poverty agenda. that he's not caring about the poor in america. i think whether it works for obama in november is going to depend on where the economy's heading. the saving grace for america that unlike europeans you embrace people getting wealthy. but when the pie is shrinking, people have got nervous that their share is too strong. when the share is growing they think the aspiration has come back again, it's fine when people get wealthy because i

can get wealthy too. chris: newt gingrich takes no heat for the wealth he's been able to accumulate. >> i personally don't get it. it will hurt gingrich as people has focused how he has earned that money because it is pure washington establishment. chris: but do people care? >> i think they care. he has used his position, his contacts, his influence to make millions and millions of dollars. he has stayed just this side of the definition of lobbyist. chris: do you think people care about ethics and marriages? >> they do care. if you're a crafty politician, and newt is that, you can shift the attention to something they care about and to something they really care about. i.e. hating the media, you deflect their attention and

that's what he's done successfully. chris: is it about the shrinking pie, the deep competition from the other countries, obviously, china, india, they seem to be catching up to us? is it about the shrinking pie of opportunity in this country or how the pie is sliced up? >> i think it's two change. one is the structural change. you read how an ipad is made and you see that it's made in asia with like a labor force that you can never assemble in a free country at wages you can't possibly compete with. the trouble is that obama thinks that seems to be changed. unfortunately it means that short-term americans are going get relatively poor. chris: what do we fight about? >> i think whether if he's the right centurist to take us forward. on the wealth stuff, i don't think it's about wealth.

i think it's about how you earn the money. and i think no one begrudges steve jobs for becoming that rich. but what has mitt romney done by the last six years. business bi-his own admission he was unemployed. he was earning $20 million for doing nothing. he's not doing anything. >> isn't it also not just how he's earned it but how he expresses his wealth. he sometimes seems unable to be anything other than the super rich guy who doesn't -- which it goes back to your poll -- the fact that $249 -- >> he does talk about -- in that context -- he says i like to fire people who are not providing the service that he expects from them. it wasn't -- it wasn't smart politics. chris: have you heard anyone say i like to fire people? >> i actually think it was more he puts in context large sums of money that he's earned from

speeches for example and suggests that it's only a small amount. >> $370,000 is not very much -- >> compared to newt. >> here's a guy that has money in zurich and the kay mans. >> he gave away more last year than most people earn in a lifetime. >> the political malpractice piece that we saw in the romney campaign is they laid their tax returns on the table. chris: why did they do it on tuesday? >> it had to do something about south carolina. not only are they more to come which they didn't take the simple step. do it all at once. and here's my plan so that the next time i pay taxes i'll pay more than this -- >> this is why obama -- i think he's failed on one critical issue. people are happy to see people pay their fair share. but the way to do that without

sounding we're going to tax the rich and give it to the poor is tax reform which he is supposed to be in favor of which he's dropped and punted because of his own party. chris: if you make $over 80 million you have to do that. >> no. let's have no deductions, three rates. and he says he supports it. his own deficit commission supported and he's run away from it and it's pathetic. chris: he came out for means testing for wealthy people and plullinging loopholes. we put it through the matthews meter. will the republicans find a message that trumps fairness? eight say no. four say yes, they will. kat you say he can't beat fairness? >> no. i think the whole fairness issue might be something that

dispates if the economy starts growing again and the unemployment numbers comes down. the natural american state of being is not to worry about fairness. >> but there's time where -- i don't feel like it's a permanent condition. >> the one thing that they could use, that could work is romney is saying the economy is getting better which he just said but i'm the guy that can turn it around. that's his key message. i think that does get through -- he has been a very successful turnaround on us. chris: who's going to win the argument the guy that knows how to do it or the guy who's rooting for the guy that can do it? >> on balance if you could mix -- chris: confidence or compassion? >> i'm going to vote for

competence. if you can fair -- you can put it on fairness it will win. he didn't have to give away 42% of his income compared to obama who gave 1% to charity. >> you have to give a certain amount of money away. >> to the church but he has other charitable targets away. chris: fairness or compassion. >> i'm afraid in his entire bob shrum is right. chris: don't get personal. it all comes down to florida. florida, again. in 2000, the recount created heroes and villains none more than katherine harris. >> tonight we examine political

chicanery or gods of construction sites. they said you know what, screw it. joining us tonight is the center of all this controversial, katherine harris. the florida supreme hass issued a gag order and saying hey, lady shut that surgery altered trap of yours so you're not going to tell us the results. >> chris, i am a public servant. and serve the people of florida and will abide by those laws. bush won. he's going to make me ambassador. and not to a country who's poor. i'm getting out of this back water state. all i have to do is practice for my ambassador state. what do you think of this. >> good god. >> they're so cruel to

katherine harris. katherine harris served two terms in the u.s. congress. lost the senat race back in 2006. when we come back, will the republican establishment freak out if newt wins florida this tuesday? will it go to its battle stations? will they find a way to stop newt. plus predictions.

chris: welcome back. let me show you this posted on his news week daily beast by our own andrew sullivan. there's a picture of newt gingrich and the text says family values, using daughters from your first wife to convince everyone that your second wife is lying about your third wife. well, the thought of newt gingrich getting nominated have republican establishment types freaked out but the fact is the south carolina republican voters were not phased about

his personal issues. the pri mire women went for newt 38% over romney's 29%. if you look at the national picture, republican, democrat and independent, a new nbc "wall street journal" poll asked voters to rate gingrich whether he has high personal standards to set the proper moral tone for the country. 52% gave him a poor rating. the establishment may try to stop newt, but the last time it worked the establishment stopping something was 60 years ago when the g.o.p. recruited dwight eisenhower. >> does it even exist anymore? what they decided to do quite a while ago was to make this a populace religious grass roots organization. chris: why are they afraid? >> they've ridden the tiger for

so long and licking its own lips. chris: is that the fear that they've got to lose? >> i think you're right. gingrich can't win against obama. it has existed far long time. the most amazing thing, there wasn't a single governor that came out and reached out to him. chris: look at rick scott of florida and scott walker -- you pointed out that they've got problems of their own. >> every time the romney campaign puts out its spokesman who tends to be former chiefs of staff it helps him. chris: bringing out susan moll naree and snusnu. -- >> a candidate comes up that seems to be teflon.

whatever is bounced at them seems to bounce back off of them. teflon can disappear. chris: i know a lot of you were surprised that they're voting for newt. he's the only excitement. romney bores everybody to death and newt seems like excitement. >> he seems like excitement as long as he lets the audience deflate. newt is a familiar figure. i don't mean that in terms of politics. i just mean, he's a georgia boy. he's our neighbor. he talks the language we talk. and mitt romney is a little bit -- chris: elite? >> not only that. he's from up north. chris: john wrote a great piece. he said you can tell the crowd who they're rooting for. the newt people look like pitch fork people. >> he has passion and came from

out of nowhere. romney's not electable. chris: tuesday night at midnight what will the establishment all the government noffers, karl roves can they stop him? >> i don't think they can because the people behind him are the fox news and the talk radio listeners and that is the republican establishment. >> if newt wins, it's a run away train. >> if it's a tie, if they're just one point apart going into the primary, romney wins and here's why, he's the only candidate, he has a state chris: are you rooting for romney? >> i have a little information here if you'll let me finish. i like mitt romney a lot. i know him. and he's a fine person. anyway, he has access -- they've had -- they've done this micro data whatever you call it -- chris: data mining. >> and they've been able to call them and make them early voters. so it's very possible, you

know, and that's worth 5% by these very sophisticated polling people. it's a close, close race, he's already won. >> if gingrich runs away with it, i think ron paul will run as a third party candidate. what's interesting to me is that the republicans has so forced the position and so eaten themselves alive that they may succeed in making obama a liberal reagan in a way they may succeed in making obama a liberal reagan in a way he's a little bird told me about a band... ♪ an old man shared some fish stories...

♪ oooh, my turn. ♪ she was in paris, but we talked for hours... everyone else buzzed about the band. there's a wireless mind inside all of us. so, where to next? ♪

chris: welcome back. mike tell me something i don't know. >> last weekend two candidates called jeb bush and asked for his endorsement.

to see who wins florida. >> we've seen an awful lot of bashing both romney and gingrich. germany has a unemployment rate of 5.5%. france has the number one health system in the world. it's a great way of rallying the base. it just happens not to be true. chris: i always think they're thinking of maggie and churchhill. >> we like kathleen. chris: not kathline harris? >> thank you so much for making that association. but now that we're into the field of katty, no offense, i have -- i have it on good authority that calista gingrich has sought out the hairdresser of laura bush and asked spervingically that she would be made like a more mature

woman because she doesn't want to be associated with the younger wife. chris: andrew? >> the most important indicators the right track, wrong track numbers. it's gone from 75-15. to 60-30. if that continues, the wind -- well, it's a breeze behind obama's back. chris: 30% is enough? >> not right now. but when it's up from 15 in three months and it's headed in that direction -- it's the direction, not the absolute level. it's the narrative. chris: you're paying attention to "the wall street journal" poll. why is florida the most political state in the country? be right back.

chris: welcome back. this week's big question -- what's the biggest reason florida's the most important political state in the union?

is it its bigness? or is it its diversity? or is it simply exciting? er or is that nobody knows and neither party can count on it and that it's always been the decider? what makes it so hot? >> 2 2 electoral votes. i think obama cannot win it. chris: cannot win it? >> cannot win it. chris: katty? >> it's very big and it swings. [laughter] >> i have to take a minute and recover. i said it for her. chris: it swings. >> all of the above. florida is the petry dish. the bottom is another country. >> diversity. it's all of america in one big swinging state. chris: why is obama dead down there? >> his negatives are unbelievably high. that margin is much tougher than a bunch of other states.

chris: we'll see how often he goes down there. thanks for a great round table. katty kay, michael duffy, kathleen parker and andrew sullivan. kathleen parker and andrew sulli[ male announcer ] this was how my day began.

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