>> this is "the chris matthews show." >> ask not what your country can do for you. chris: come home, america? now president karzai says he does president want to see the troops any more, wants them back in the barracks. is this the final straw? is the government telling us we're not wanted? and is this the first convention in 60 years that starts without a winner that has delegates fought for in the day and switching at night? could a two-man battle all --

actually yield a third man demanded by the hall? and finally gas lines? how high does the price have to go to have people hollering? four bucks? five? tell me it can't kill obama and i will tell you it will. hi, throck the show. andrew sullivan of "newsweek" and the daily beast, katty kay of bbc world america, liz marlantes of the "christian science monitor," and david ignatius of "the washington post." first up, the president has a challenge this week as he launches his re-election campaign after the massacre by that soldier in afghanistan. 53% of democrats, 54% of independents want to speed up the with draufment some heard

eau sub text in the president's comments wednesday. >> i don't anticipate at this stage that we're going to be making any sudden additional changes to the plan that we currently have. chris: david, what would be the biggest problem with leaving sooner? the regular plan now as called for bit president is we'll get out of there in combat force 2014. >> the measure of success for the president's policy be the ability to transfer responsibility for security to the afghans. and as soon as that's possible, soon as they really are ready to take over i think obama and all oush commanders and advisors there would love to get troops home. in september the troop number will be drawn down to 68,000 and the white house despite some pressure to announce the number for the continuing reductions to next year hasn't done it yet.

the reason yet is their commander, general allen, says i'd like to know how the afghans are doing, how much help they need before i tell you the number of troops who are going to continue to come out as we go into next year the chris: we had a big meeting, white house state dinner and all that with david cameron, the prime minister of the united kingdom and he seemed to be saying stay the could, barak. >> i think he was saying we're looking at the overall strategy, not responding knee-jerk. but cameron's concern is he doesn't want his troops left behind if the americans come out faster. so if there is a rush to the exit, david cameron doesn't want to be the man to leave the race. increasingly, as henry kissinger has said, it looks like this is all about exit, not strategy. if we are focused on getting out of afghanistan rather than on what kind of country we're

leave behind, you can understand why politically back leer at home you are seeing the numbers we're seeing in those polls where people are saying well, if it's all about getting out, let's get out now. chris: the american people may have not gotten that, liz. the polling after the fresh horror of the american soldier killinging all those people over there is let's get moving. do you know if they're thinking, so what if the taliban gets back in there, we got bin laden? what's the american thinking when they say get out? >> i think there are two dynamics at work. one is what katty just described, analogous to when you have announced you are getting divorced you don't want to sit around for two years waiting to leave. why not just do it now and do it faster? the criticism i -- you keep hearing from republicans and i think there is validity to this is that the president didn't

really spend any political capital selling this mission to the public. i'm not sure the public understands what the mission is there any more. once bin laden was lead -- dead a lot of them thought well, we solved our main problem, we're are not going to build a perfect democracy there, and why are we even there any more in >> the big fight well. administration was biden said let's stay there were -- with enough strength to fight terrorism. we can chasm any remnants of al qaeda or whatever. the president however and the generals said no, let's stay with the counterinsurgency policy, help the government fight the taliban. the american people, do they want to stay there two more years fighting the taliban? >> they don't. the truth is we went there because of al qaeda and i think most people would agree there's been extraordinary success getting rid of the mid-level

leadership of al qaeda and getting rid of binl laden was the icing on the cake. this country has never believed, especially the middle of the country, that we should be sending our soldiers around the country trying to make countries into things they're not the and that's partly why obama was elected. there is no cost to saying we want no more war in afghanistan and -- >> and the really striking thing that happened after the killing of the afghan civilians last weekend was how many senior republicans came out and started questioning the reason for staying longer the >> and it was much more inflammatory than the accidental burning of a few coreans. it shows again that america say country without any colonial talent. i think the sooner we get out

the better. chris: i think our instinct is not to be a colonial power and their instinct is about religion and things we can't even fathom. daveragetde you had an item in "the washington post" that said the president's envoy has been conducting secret negotiations with the taliban where they would agree to go to qatar and engage in peace talks with us and also that he is working on a reasonable framework with the neighboring countries to avoid chaos once we get out. is that all off now? or is it still happening? >> no, we'll have to see, but the diplomatic side of this is the right rejoinder to what andrew is have aing and what the country is saying. everybody wants to get out of afghanistan, but you don't want to leave behind the kind of mess that produced al qaeda and the 9/11 attacks. just 0 to finish the point, the best way to do that is to have

some regional structure, some agreement among the neighboring countries, pakistan, india, that you are going to contain the violence. afghanistan is requesting to be a violent country probably for as long as we're all alive, but if you can contain it so it doesn't below up -- blow up, it's a safer situation. >> if that were possible, it's clearly the best strategy but if -- in 10 years we have singularly failed to persuade the pakistanis that it's not about their relationship with the after gans. >> one said to me for the first time we don't want to go back to the way it was, this idea that afghanistan is our strategic back yard, that didn't work for us and i was very struck, this was a responsible official and i'd never heard that about. chris: let me ask you about the simple logistics of getting

out of there. can we get out of there in quick order? >> well, that's the danger for obama if he did try to speed up the process. we do have surge troops coming home right before the election and in terms of the politics that might be enough for now. but i'm sure that's what the generals are saying, you know, when allen comes to testify on the hill next -- >> i just can't imagine any point at which they'll be able to say all the neighbor be countries are committed to stabilization. that's a recipe and the country is sick of it. 10 years. this country is not supposed to be at war for 10 years. it's enough. we're not running the world the chris: will the president be able to stick it out according to his timetable given the politics here at home? >> he will try because he doesn't want drama. he doesn't want to be either leading us out of keeping us there >> he doesn't want people to say this is another vietnam

moment. >> and worth pointing out that the president's most likely opponent in the fall, mitt romney is still actually saying he would go bigger. >> that's in iran. what about that? >> politically there is nothing in it for the president to pull the plug on his own oils the >> politically or realistically over there? >> there are costs there too, but in terms of domestic policy i don't think he pays a price for -- >> people will wait it out so long as they see he's focused on the economy and jobs. >> if they think there is a strategy they'll stick with it. if -- the minute they think this isn't, they'll be gone. chris: and before we break, gas prices could become a huge issue in the fall. fortunately there are no gas lines like in the years when it killed jimmy carter.

>> how many of you think jimmy carter is doing a good job on the energy situation? amy and rosslyn? ok. [laughter] how many think he's doing a bad job? [applause] how many of you think he should be pumping gas? chris: carter tried fireside chats in cardigan sweaters hoping that conservation would make him look better. "saturday night live" wasn't making -- taking it seriously. i'm personally at this moment generating all the electricity necessary to transmit this television broadcast to you. there is enough energy left over to run this electric hot comb. >> jimmy?

it's my turn to power the broadcast now. >> ok. ready to switch? >> i'm ready. oh, lord have mercy! thank you, sugar. >> almost lost you there. >> and remember when it's your turn. >> everybody tries to pitch in as best they can. >> are you ready? >> yes, i'm ready. [laughter] >> ok, mama. >> i'd do anything for my jimmy. >> if you take up the examples we've set, it will all work out for the better. i love you all and thank you very much. chris: when we come back, how mitt romney just might lose to rick santorum. plus scoops and predictions.

>> the object is to come to the convention and settle this issue on the floor of the convention. i think both of us will arrive there. i'm in the campaign all the way, to stay all the way to the convention and i think that's where it's going to be decided. chris: that of course is ronald reagan when he kept pushing the fight with gerry ford all the way to the convention. and candidates like newt gingrich this year are pushing it, being like him. katrina, i want to give credit where it's true. nine months ago we asked the matthews meters, nine regs, including you, which conservative would be, would

wind up being the counter to romney and you picked santorum. >> i wish i could say i was prescient but it was really the process of elimination. going down the list to see who else was socially conservative as well as fiscally conservative and there wasn't anybody else. anyone else who ticked the boxes like he did. chris: who else besides katty thought it would end up santorum? just in materials of our punditry ability. i think we're zero. >> if you're asking me, i do remember asking why santorum was polling as low as he was if the -- in 9 fall because he did seem like that kind of candidate that would abale to the the electorate thoo romney never did. i've been thinking a lot about this race and what's going on.

it's such an odd situation he's found himself in. i was thinking of how to describe what's going on and it almost seems like buyer's remorse. that the party has already decide essentially that he's it and when you look at the polls they all see -- say they think he's going to be the nominee. in a way that's hurting romney. i actually feel like if voters thought there was a chance that he might not be, that it might be santorum, they might like him better. chris: so you buy a car, thinking it the the worst decision you've ever made and you go buy the guy? >> there is a sense that they're stuck with him. >> but with no decision going into the room in tampa, what's that means for his chances to beat obama? >> wrl -- well, obviously not great. but they can obviously go try find some glamorous person and

do a palin moment in cement romney is the most dreadful candidate since john kerry in terms of abailt to deliver. his speeches are vacuous. he has no real connection with other human beings. this is a candidate who is a zombie. chris: so he can't do big talk and he can't do small talk? >> his best lines are about the economy. chris: if the economy is getting better, then what does a turnaround guy offer? >> exactly. >> i think that's his biggest problem. he is a compelling prop pigs to voters that is right economy is really in trouble and he's obviously the sort of firm, tough manager who's been out there and knows what to do. i would say if the economy gets better his only hope is staying in the fight and being seen finally as this decent guy, gritty guy, good family man who

has stuck it out through all these challenges and -- chris: going to ask you, will there be a first ballot nomination at the convention? >> i would say there will be. romney will get just over 50%. chris: first ballot? >> yes. chris: first ballot nomination? >> yes. chris: when we come back, scoops and predictions. we're going to ask you to tell me something i don how did this small colorado town get through tough economic times? freight rail. it attracted large companies, like vestas. we built four factories to make turbine blades, towers, and generators. creating over seventeen hundred jobs. then suppliers, stores, more companies followed, creating more jobs. economists call that the ripple effect. i call it the freight rail effect. freight rail connects every corner of america, bringing jobs and economic growth along for the ride.

visit freightrailworks.org.

>> tell me something i don't know is brought to you by charles schwab. let's talk about the the pearnl tension you and your money zefrpblt talk to chuck the chris: welcome back. andrew, tell me something i don't know. >> bit end ncht obama campaign most americans will hear the words mitt romney and think wall street banker. that's the message. he's wall street.

he's what brought you this. and he's going to fleece you one more time. chris: katrina? >> i was going to tell you something on iran or israel but actually this week i was luckily -- lucky enough to be invice presidented to the state dinner at the white house. it was full of celebrities from both sides of the atlantic. george clooney, lord and lady granthamm. but the most impressive celebrity was andrew sullivan who turned up with his husband. what an impressive couple they made. >> i kind of panicked but aaron grabbed my hand and got me through the. chris: and i understand there was another couple there, the aforementioneded katrina and husband tom. looking reblendent in that gown by -- who did that for you? >> a girl doesn't tell the >> they always do when they brag about it! chris: liz marlantes, tell me

something i don't know. >> the next big competition is illinois. early voting was yesterday and so far the totals have been less than impressive. as we know, early voting has been important for romney in a lot of these. and it has not been what he might hope. >> president obama is looking strong enough as a candidate that the buzz is beginning about who is going to serve in his cabinity -- cabinet in a second term the the answer is, are you an ambassador? susan rice, a likely player in the next administration. chris: put an oar -- has hillary put an oar into this? >> not to my knowledge the >> they all want her to be the next ambassador -- tom shows no signs of leaving that job the chris: when we come back, the

question of the week. focusing on the negatives of the other guys? but isn't it still really just about him, the incumbent? that's my question. about him, the incumbent? that's my question. we'll be right back.

but if you really want to make an impact, vote. then, what matters to you and the people you care about will really count. you'll want to vote the more you know. chris: welcome back. the president ramped up the campaign this week. he wants to be a choice between him and the republicans, which brings us to this week's big question. is it really a choice between him and the other guy, or is it just about him and how he's doing as president? >> i hate to be ambivalent but it will be about him of course. chris: we'll learn more by quick answers. >> it was about the incumbent. the primary has made is increasingly about choice. >> choice. about the better candidate. >> it's about him and how he's doing. chris: three make it two. i think it's all about how well he's doing.

gas prices will decide the elections, not the cangers of a possible pop -- opponent. that's the show. thanks for watching and see you back

♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] offering four distinct driving modes and lexus' dynamic handling, the next generation of lexus will not be contained. the all-new 2013 lexus gs. there's no going back. ♪