tv Mad Money NBC March 28, 2012 3:00am-4:00am EDT
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>> thursday. >> thursday! is it okay for pediatricians to turn away parents who refuse to vaccinate them? we'll find out. -- captions by vitac -- www.vitac.com i'm jim cramer, and welcome to my world. >> you need to get in the game. firms are going to go out of business and he's nuts, they're nuts, they know nothing. i always like to say there is a bull market somewhere. "mad money," you can't afford to miss it. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i want to save you money. i want to educate and teach you. call me 1-800-743-cnbc. let me ask you a question. is the shoot first, don't even bother to ask questions later, losing the duel against the markets' more thoughtful and pensive investors? on a blah day, s&p, sliding down
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.2% and nasdaq .7% lower. i think the answer is a resounding yes, they are losing. last week we got a devastating earnings report from kb homes, made it clear that everything is going the wrong way in housing. sales, orders, costs, cancellations, all bad. >> the house of pain. >> the statements from the second-rate home builder, so horrific, to threaten the entire thesis behind this rally, the most powerful move of 2012. housing needs to come back at this point the kb home bomb foreshadowed a rollback of the whole complex, sherwin williams, home depot, whirlpool, it put a damper on the banking rally too. the inventory of homes might at least be peaking and may turn out to be not as bad as we thought.
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if you listen to kb home, you may have been tempted to immediately sell everything even remotely connected to housing. that turned out to be a really bad call. that's right, turns out the fault was not new home starts, but in kb itself. the chief home building star, lenar, today blew numbers away. it reported and it's back to game on with the whole group rising. whole group round, despite the overall down, thanks to lenare squeaking about declines in cancellations, increase in orders and hopefully this part of our economy getting back on track. may i suggest that you read the conference call. you will feel dynamite if you read that call. if you are one of the 63% of americans that own your home.
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many regions around the country continue to have lower housing prices. they need to get that thing done earlier. it would have more gravitas. what happened in the housing group today is a reminder, when traders shoot first and don't bother to ask questions later, they are no longer winning. you got right now a definitive loser strategy if you are playing that -- >> the house of pain! >> -- game. in this market the winners buy the victims of the drive by shootings. those who shot the home builders and their accoutrements didn't bother to ask if the problems were kb specific. they sell everything from a worst of breed player and those who recognized that fact made out like bandits. we saw the same identical situation in the restaurants,
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when mcdonald's announced its quarter. they all got pancaked. it turns out that mcdonald's really made it an issue. chipotle and panera got whacked immediately off the pin action of mcdonald's. today, though, both of those collaterally damaged stocks hit their 52-week highs. how about this federal express? fedex bemoaned the state of the shipping business, immediately dragged ups with it. i think ups is simply doing better than fedex. a la kb homes versus lenore. ups, when did you have to pull the trigger? when fedex said everything was bad. same goes for the agriculture complex. john deere, a bummer of a quarter and sent down everything, fertilizer, seed stocks, you name it. but subsequently a host of fertilizer stocks told us that business was really better. you had to buy into the deere inspired dip.
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yep, it's no longer safe to shoot first and even if you ask questions later, as opposed to not even look, it's not safe anymore. ladies and gentlemen this is a huge sea change, and it gives me some terrific ideas of what might happen in the future. anybody can report what happened in the past. i can get that on a whim. what can happen in the future? now we're talking. right now we're seeing just a ridiculously horrific selling in a couple of areas where i believe people are taking their cue from the wrong stocks. similar to home builders, restaurants, transports and ag complexes. oil service stocks keep getting hit over and over again. why? single piece of bad news. bhi, they made the brilliant decision to go all in north american nat gas. given all that incredible shale and gas finds, now, it did at
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one point -- this strategy made a ton of sense, but not everyone took that stance. schlumberger, ensco and weatherford, all parts of the same oil service complex, but didn't go all in natural gas, so had a bit of a vision about what would happen in this marketplace, natural gas ten-year lows, schlumberger came on our show, the ceo, said natural gas is an incredibly small part of the business. am i the only viewer of my own show? hmm. mad tweets says not. ensco and weatherford, virtually no exposure. natural gas producers are pulling back on drilling, the price of the commodity is too darn low. those affiliated with oil, their stocks are being hammered every bit as bad, and some cases like slob, genuine wall street gibberish for schlumberger.
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just like the home builders all took their cue from kb homes -- >> the house of pain. >> instead of lenare. >> the house of pleasure. >> so we have this bizarre phenomenon. oil is not going down. it's all we can talk about. gas, up to $4, now $4.20. now like an auctioneer and we have oil, $125. and stocks are getting hammered, even the ones that aren't natural gas plays, and the players aren't speaking out any time soon, i think oil service stocks continue to take it on the chin. they have taken schlumberger from 70 to 75, and ensco from 55 to 53. the sellers can take it lower. we have an idea. the schlumberger, ensco, these two companies aren't levered to
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the same set of circumstances befuddling baker hughes. they are better. now, weatherford has real management issues, but at $15.93, i think you will buy decent money there if you don't use the start loss orders that i told you about. another group that could play out against the shoot first, no questions asked crowd. tomorrow morning, family dollar reports. while the dollar stores are all smoking hot. family dollar, a real laggard. not executing as well as the other guys. is it not the kind of executioner i like. so today i have an idea for home gamers. today, dollar general announced a 25 million share secondary. at that moment, pick up your phone, call your broker, or whatever you do with the online stuff and get dollar general on that secondary. they already got knocked back a buck and a half and could get hit again off the collateral damage of family dollar -- not
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like the hedge fund, jim. you don't do that stuff anymore, remember your anger management class. anyway, you might get the perfect entry point for this premier dollar store stock. bottom line, i never tire of saying. 2012 is a whole lot different than 2011. last night the people who shot first who ran from the whole sector off one bad number of support, they made out like bandits. and some dropped still further when the next company reported. this time the negative reports have been outliers, they create opportunities. and i sense there will be a lot more, until the quick draw mcgraw artists figure out they are playing with last year's playbook and it's losing them a lot of money. i'm going to alan in illinois to start the questioning. >> reporter: professor cramer, this is al in the land of lincoln. >> what's going on?
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>> caller: i want to say happy anniversary to you and your terrific staff. hope for another great seven years on cnbc, sir. >> my staff is unbelievable. have you met katniss everdeen gilgan, my producer? >> caller: jim, i went to north dakota last summer. >> did you stay in the mcdonald's lot and sleep in the car? >> walmart, the camper. >> i had to sleep on interstate 5, very uncomfortable. >> caller: 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, lines of trucks are hauling oil out of bakken. is endbridge, enb, right infrastructure play now they are starting to expand? >> it's a quality company, moving aggressively in the bakken. the rails, believe it or not.
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a real tangential play, housing is coming back, warren buffett's burlington railroad company. they are there in space. housing, rail, buffett. i don't know, last time i looked, pretty start guy. shoot first, ask questions shoot first, ask questions later, it's not 2011 people. it's 2012, people. they shoot, we make money.
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getting its head around, instantly at least. take pvh corp, formerly known as philips van heusen. calvin klein, tommy hilfiger, izod. any department store, more than a third of the dress shirts and half of the ties will be made by pvh. including this spiffy one i bought for almost full price at macy's. this is an incredibly well-run company up 130% since i got behind it in january 2008. up 32% since the last time i spoke to the ceo, december 1st. pvh tends to initially get slammed. people misunderstand the headline earnings numbers, only to rebound once investors process the positive things. 8 cent earning beat and up 10% year over year. guidance some would say mixed. strength in 2012 will almost
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entirely come from the second half of the year and some might argue that pvh guiding down below what some analysts expected. we really got to figure this out. i want you to make money in this stock. let's check in with the fabulous chairman and ceo of pvh, find out more about the prospects and how the country is doing. welcome back to "mad money." >> good to see you. >> first of all, in january you guided up big, but you trounced that. what happened in the last month and a half that the january guidance, very big, was above what you ended up doing? >> gross margins had a significant sell through of some of that leftover fall product that's in department stores and got that out even quicker, so we really were set up as we go into 2012 very strong, inventory looks great, and feel positive about that. >> calvin klein, up 18%.
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guidance for 18 -- 15 for guidance, is that just what we're seeing here? this kind of thing or just something different in internal? what is moving that huge same-store sales? >> we'll talk about basically north america. and up for the fourth quarter, up about 18%. strong business to continue into the first quarter, up double digits around 10% for the first two months of 2012. and that business continues to have a lot of momentum as we go forward. >> and hilfiger, 15%. >> that business is just accelerating to the first quarter. mid teens comps in north american retail stores, in the tommy hilfiger business. very strong. >> i know these are not inexpensive. i bought a bunch at the same time. i wish i were as thin and cool as are you. i try. >> i can work on the thin, the cool you're on your own. >> these are not inexpensive.
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does this not say -- is it a combination of the brand and also maybe the american consumer? you were the first to call the american consumer back when everyone else had written them off. are things stronger in the country? >> the affordable luxury category. the premium category price point in the united states, $40 to $70, that's a sweet spot right now, really the american consumer is really stepping into. and we don't see it slowing down at all. >> just -- you know, i paid $4.05 this weekend for gasoline. it's not relenting. >> we haven't seen -- you always -- you take a step back, watch the business, i think it's having more of an impact on the more moderate brands. we started to see that business start to turn around. and as we get into second quarter and beyond, you'll see heritage stock.
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>> it was only minus one, and i was looking for minus two to three. how about europe? you're big in europe. i still don't see any weakness. >> that business has continued very strong for us. we are concerned as we look at that macro we want, we're planning the european business up on a constant currency basis. 8% to 10%, so i think we could do better than that. right now, considering where we are, considering what's going on in the business, i think that's a good place to start. >> okay, now, i want to do something i never really get a chance to do. i want to debunk how people view stocks. headline comes out immediately after this release. pvh corp beats and guides april q below consensus, guides fiscal year '13 above consensus. this kind of snap judgment does not fit what i've read.
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>> i think things will settle in, once everybody has a chance to digest it. that came out five minutes after the release came out. we called that before the january results, the full fiscal year, and we talked about for the first quarter would be flat to down slightly. we came out with a quarter that was flat to up slightly. one analyst that is completely off, and 70 cents above everyone else. it's just throwing the math off. everyone else off the $1.20, to $1.27 range. one analyst at $1.90. and hasn't looked at her model for a while. >> i play for the people at home. the people at home read this oh, boy, i'm in trouble. every time we get to this. and your stock is up 130%. every time we get to one of these and you they see that, they give up. think it's not a buy. i've seen this stock had a remarkable move, and it's all because you have beaten consistently what you said you can do.
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>> i think that's true, jim. the silliness in the first quarter i think is -- i really just don't understand the -- it even coming out. for us, from the get go, the business of being planned the way we are, first quarter trends are significantly ahead of the guidance we've given, and north america, comps running double-digit increases against a plan that's plus three or four, so i really feel if we get through the next month, we have upside against these. >> and you've always held that second half of cotton costs decline will be better. looks like cotton has come down even more. >> that's correct. and i think a couple of things. i think the currency issue is really -- just in the last week is really -- we've seen the euro go from $1.28 to $1.33. trying to factor that into the mixmaster. the business on the fundamental basis is very strong. continuing to guide for the year, something close to mid
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teens earnings per share growth. in spite of currency headwinds, so on every level that i look at, i feel we're over performing. >> and below market, i know i'm being waved off. not done. i think this brand is a chinese brand. i think this takes china and takes china huge. i still don't see it. i don't see anything about moving to china. >> our china business is a real growth. talking about the tommy hilfiger. for us it's a real growth opportunity. for us, today, tommy hilfiger is big, has the ability to be ten times as big. and calvin klein, i think both brands could be billion dollar brands in china in the foreseeable future. next four to five years. >> manny chirico, chairman and ceo of pvh.
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this week, nbc news is joining the chamber of commerce in an initiative to help get veterans back into the workforce, called hiring our heroes. there is a job fair tomorrow in new york city aboard the "uss intrepid." our man sully is going to be coming live from the "intrepid" on street signs. this isn't just a good thing to do. this is something we must do, given there are a million jobless veterans in this country and the unemployment rate for vets is a whole lot higher than
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the national average. that's absurd. what is working on a 9:00 to 5:00 job in an office next to working in afghanistan? so as part of our "hiring our heroes" initiative, we have the transformational chairman of clorox. they turned a bunch of despaired brand into single business, but he's also a veteran. served as an artillery officer in the marine corps from august 1976 to 1981, and he's committed to hiring vets on clorox. the ship is facing tough headwinds in the form of higher input costs, caused by the sky-high price of oil. let's see where clorox is heading and what it means to hire veterans. welcome back. >> good to be with you, jim. >> obviously, hiring marines, hiring officers, and vets, has been great for clorox.
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but i don't understand why is it that there are so many unemployed vets? >> jim, i think it's really a function of two things with other companies, and programs like yours will address these things. first is awareness. i don't think a lot of companies have an awareness of the qualities that vets bring to the workforce. those qualities around mission orientation. the discipline and maturity. the focus on teamwork, and lastly i think just the values orientation, the focus on integrity. put all four of those things together. mission orientation, discipline, >> these vets, and i think we have taken constructive concrete steps to help do that. >> at goldman sachs, we had
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similar personnel. i had helped doing that the people from the military, felt loyal and thrilled to have the job. what is the retention rate, veterans, versus non? >> we see it typical. to your point, it is a bit better. i think one of the things, i don't know if you did thissad goldman, one of the things we did for perspective. this is january, february, march, quarter is almost over. 16% have been vets. impressive. we are trying to wrap it up beyond that first, we put all of our external job postings on vetsjobs.com. that helped a lot. and secondly, the service
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academy, west point, coast guard, merchant marine. the talent out of the service academies, with five to seven years of military experience is exceptional. we participated in two conferences, we will do another one this year, if not more, the third thing, the engineer group, our engineering group is partnered with firms like the lucas group, recruiting and job fairs for military personnel, we participated in those. and we are linked into the junior military officer, noncommissioned officer like orion international. one of the largest recruiting for ncos. you put the steps together, i think any company can do these
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it is getting awareness to how to get access to the vets. >> any particular divisions, finance, sales, r and d, talking engineers. >> we are seeing a lot of match up with product supply, manufacturing and logistics, you have a lot of people coming out of the military with that, supply officers, or any of the different branchs, combat arm branchs, artillery, all of them have experience with logistics, we are seeing a good leadership fit. product supply, r and d in particular, seem to be sweet spots. >> how about the skills they learn in the military, versus the skills out of businesses? >> it is a real difference, what is theoretical, what is practical. when you have noncommissioned officers with a few years that have to work and lead people to
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get things accomplished. that is one of the things we are seeing is mission orientation, as one of the vets told me at a manufacturing plant, every day is a mission day at clorox. how to rally people around a mission and get that mission accomplished it is hard to learn that in a classroom. >> speaking of mission accomplish, you have been doing a great job, because of the dividend. last may, you raised the dividend. this is a board decision, could it come up for discussion against? >> it will come up again. clorox is one of those dividend aristocrats, who raised their dev dends for 34 years, we doubled our dividend in the last five years, compounded growth rate, the yield is about 3.6%. rest assured that conversation
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will come up in the board meeting in may. >> the head winds and tail winds, we know gasoline, oil is a giant headwind, a lot of people, talking about ten year lows in natural gas. it has to figure somewhere as a tail wind for your company? >> natural gas reached all-time lows, we haven't seen any moderation of input costs for us. we hope we will. resin, a big peefs our glad trash business and the bottles we use for bleach, exset ra, gas, natural gas is, however, it is not the feed stock in asia, this is a global market, we have seen some prices in resin, we are sees the global demand is strong. we have seen stabilization. we will start to see mitigation of input costs into the spring
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courteous into the summer. >> i want to know. on your website there, are great ideas people are presenting. can you give me an idea of website, social media that changed your company or given you an idea for a new product? >> one of the things that came up. on brita, our water filtration business, one of the problems people were having, innovation at the end of the day is solving somebody's problem. one thing that was noted, feedback we were getting from consumers, why not use brita on the go? find a way to tap tap water in the car, and save all the containers of bottled water. we came up with brita on the g a small bottle with a filter built n it will fit in a car cup holder. people can buy a brita on the go bottle, and forgo 150 bottles of bottled water. that is one of the insights
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through social media. >> my daughter made me buy her the single cup filter. it has taken the college kids, who feel guilty about using the bottles, a terrific job. a great leader. thank you for leading us in this important mission, an issue that matters to all of america. >> that you for everything that you are doing for it. too. chairman and coe of clorox. i don't -- the man is hiring, he is telling you how to do it. everybody should be hiring the vets. >> as a u.s. marine, i learned the power of trust. we knew we wouldn't let each other down. i deeply respect the sacrifices made. we. veterans, some here with me
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time for the lightning round. are you ready, skee-daddy. andrew in south carolina. andrew. >> caller: professor cramer, got an italian and ukrainian booyah for you. >> loving it. >> caller: ticker lf. educational technology based company. leap frog. what you got for me? >> skip it. i'm going to ben in my home state of pennsylvania. ben. >> caller: hi, jim. i'm a first time caller. calling about a company called exel. they are in a trial for prostate cancer? >> the stock is telling me that ain't going to happen. i'm willing to make it a speculative bet, but i don't like the odds. it's like math.
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let's go to celia in massachusetts. >> caller: hi, jim. >> how are you? >> caller: triple booyah to you. >> i see your triple and take you a quad. >> caller: oracle? >> quarter was okay. i think they are doing a lot of right things, but not enough to do the job. stock is stuck here. let's go to ryan in illini. >> caller: hi, jim. >> hi. >> caller: this is ryan in illinois. can i get a badda bing, badda booyah! >> i like that "sopranos" booyah. >> caller: i just turned 25, and i work for baxter international. they offer a stock purchasing plan. i have been acquiring shares of at discount over the year. i want to get your thoughts on the employee purchase like this. >> you can have up to 20% in baxter. i wouldn't encourage that. i do think baxter a terrific company, on the comeback, but i
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need to you be diversified. so people like you don't own 100% baxter. let's going to matt in chicago. >> caller: i'm curious about kohl's. kss >> they raised the dividend. look at these kohl's socks. you tell me this isn't spiffy. that said, sell, sell, sell. no mojo there. and that is the conclusion of the lightning round. but when you're alert and energetic... that's different. you're more with it, sharper, getting stuff done. this is why people choose 5-hour energy over 9-million times a week. it gives them the alert, energetic feeling they need to get stuff done.
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it's tweet week here on "mad money" where we are proving that "mad money" still the most interactive show on television. i was going through these last night at 11:30 and again at 4:00, it doesn't stop. here is how it works. you ask me questions on twitter @jimcramer, and we take the best ones. the ones that require more than 140-character response, and devote an entire segment to you, to giving you the answers you are looking for. so far, we've gotten a whole bunch of tweets asking about the transports. both the individual transportation stocks, tons of those, and then, of course, the whole group. but more importantly, how it really does relate to the broader market. people love this stuff. and i know i talk about it, but i got to go deeper, take this one from theblueprint4 who tweeted long time watcher, want your thoughts on the dow jones transport components, how does oil prices affect this trade? great question! oil expenses, fuel costs go
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through the roof for rails, airlines and shipping companies, fed ex and ups. there is a fuel surcharge they can pass on to the customers. in other words, with oil prices at these levels, you expect transports to be rolling over, laying an egg. lately, the opposite has happened. the transports have been rallying. leading the rest of the market higher. and you shrug off sky high of oil. can this rally be sustained. what does it mean for the rest of the market? we're going off the charts to answer that question with the help of tim collins and my colleague at thestreet.com. we want to satisfy you, we have a million people going to the thing. and we won't stop until we try to get everyone answered individually or on the show. first, let's take a look at the daily chart of the dow jones transportation average. so we can see what is happening. the precursor to the rest of the market. biggest thing that sticks out is how the action in the transports since february is reminiscent.
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very reminiscent of the action from november through december of last year. now, the two periods aren't precisely the same. but they certainly rhyme, and price pattern is almost an exact match even as the total is different in absolute terms. in both cases, the transports went from the ceiling of resistance, the dotted line and fell all the way down to the solid line that represents the floor of support and in both cases, the transports had rebounded, but failed to reach the ceiling again before pulling back. why does this matter? why is this significant that we have had this pattern? bounce, bounce, bounce, and boom. the reason is, because this is -- the transports have been doing this, almost repeating the same move they made in november and december. after the final pull back in december, we caught an awesome rally, right? an awesome rally in the transports. collins believes the same thing could happen.
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see bullish. i was so excited when tim sent me this. i said smoke show. last week, transports pulled back. now they could be ready to launch another terrific rally. after the action of november and december, the trend line changed, the direction, all of a sudden a new higher floor of support appeared. black line. okay? black line, and the transports rallied above that line until until the initial pattern repeated itself in february. and that new support line ran close to the 55-day average. and collins uses 55. here we go. a little arcane stuff here, and one of those mathematical constants associated with leonardo fibonacci. found a set a number that repeated over and over again in nature.
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and i'm a fibonacci nobody, but that's okay. now we see the same exact thing. the transports have a more bullish support line, in brown on the chart, and we see this. it's in there, believe me. and this is the brown line, you have to follow it at length. and the 55-day moving average, how high can the transports go up if this pattern repeats itself? dow jones transportation is at 5,276. if we break out over 5,375, then collins sees this index going vavoom, 5,575, based on what happened before. 9.5%. and that is just going to get a lot of bears to capitulate. what does that mean for the rest of the market? check out this long-term chart of the s&p 500, more representative of the market as a whole.
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than the dow jones industrial average. i like to talk about both. if transports continue to rally, collins believes the spy can hit 160, a 13% gain from where we are right now. that would be a great year. and just like with the transports, it's all about symmetry. we have a generational low from 2009. through the beginning of 2010. and it dipped making what is known as a cup and handle formation, continuation pattern, which suggested that the rally would resume. okay? cup and handle. cup and handle. that's exactly what happened. another leg up for the s&p, and first quarter of 2011. look what happens after that. another dip, just like in 2010, see these repeat patterns? just like 2010, another cup and handle formation, and just like before, this cup and handle formation, this still has legs. cup and handle, who knows how high the handle will go? he does. based on the size of the previous moves, he believes it
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could go to 160, equivalent of 1,600 in the s&p. this is so bullish. i have to tell you, really bullish. got to fathom this stuff. bottom line, chart suggests that interpreted by tim collins, transports can keep rallying and so can the s&p 500, regardless of oil. my view, i find this extremely plausible, considering how robust this market has been. we have been able to rally with out the transports, and they do call them the trannies, sky is the limit. remember, keep the tweets coming, cramerica. @jimcramer and i can be answering your question on the show. look, i'll give you a commercial break to start tweeting. guys, so excited. i was on it, and they were on the twicker. "mad money" will be right back. [ male announcer ] this is lois. the day starts with arthritis pain... a load of new listings... and two pills. after a morning of walk-ups, it's back to more pain,
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sometimes i'm mystified as to why we have to attribute a rally to any particular statement by the fed, of course. yesterday, one of those puzzling days. ben bernanke made the same comments he's made a half dozen times and worth a half a percent in the market. does anybody really believe that? did it matter? of course not. silly. yesterday's huge rally was ascribed to bernanke. you would think if bernanke would talk again tomorrow say same thing again, we would get
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another big move. that's not true. the suckers who believe the fed-to-market relationship are the same dopes that said oil would go down if the dollar was strong or gold would go -- strong or any number of false positives that don't play anywhere except in the media. if the fed is bogus, what drove things? market mechanics. even after today's lackluster session, many managers are underinvested or didn't beat the benchmarks. yesterday bought stock they knew they would be more invested to be done. they move up their own stocks and move the individual performance. it's illegal to mark up stocks and the last day of trading. yesterday, gave you safe harbor to move up own stocks. yes, this does happen. sure, big firms with dopey execs that say i listened to ben bernanke today even though he repeated exactly what he said before, we ought to take his word as opposed to the other times. that's what the media would have you believe. far more money managers are
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saying the sucker isn't coming in. better capitulate, get long. i have to explain my performance to my clients and that will be a wac -- awkward if i miss the rally. nothing has changed when it comes to bernanke, but everything changed when it comes to the market refusing to come in. only five days left in the best quarter of '98. yesterday's rally driven by capitulation of markets. unfortunately, the market mechanics doesn't fit into the narrative or the headline. it's my job to try to make you money. so i would rather tell it like it is, even if it goes against the media grade. stick with cramer. some mornings, getting the family together for breakfast
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