senate seat. there's a brand new poll out this morning that indicates ernst has a seven-point lead. luke russert is standing by in des moines. luke, that had to be a stomach punch to democrats last night when the final poll came out with that margin. >> reporter: yeah. you are completely right, chuck. this poll, considered the gold standard ahead of elections here in iowa. real worrisome news for bruce braley. two things that stood out, braley will have to campaign to turn out the vote if he has any chance. the other thing, joni ernst, the republican, actually polling better on the issue of who cares more about people like me. that is something democrats ordinarily do better on. in this case, she's doing a good job. she also adds this novelty to her candidacy, she's a combat veteran. she would be the first woman sent to washington from iowa if

she were to win. she's really been able to, through the powerful personality narrative, sort of make braley very washington and very unlikable. something to keep an eye on. if she is to win, she would be the number one surrogate any of those republican presidential candidates would want. >> that's for sure. she could become a quick star. luke russert in iowa, thank you, sir. this is such a surprisingly unpredictable election when you see what the numbers we have nationally. we needed two panels to sort it all out. joining me now are some of the smartest minds in political analysis. charlie cook, amy walter and two of our nbc pollsters. fred yang, and bill, our republican pollster with public opinion strategies. you have just given us some brand new data. i appreciate that. here is our generic congressional ballot likely voters, say they prefer republican congress, but it's

the slimmest of margins. and here is another surprising finding. in the ten senate battleground states which largely have leaned republican, the margin is the same, just one point, 47, 46. bill, your party thinks it has the wind at its back. i feel like republicans are trying to will a wave coming on. one piece of good news, then there's a step back. this is a tight election. >> it is a tight election. the senate seats are in the south. president obama's job approval is 23%. the negative is 64%. that's a death star number. the democrats have control in the senate. it's too far a stretch. political gravity kicks in. i think the senate goes republican. >> fred, look at the numbers. did it make you feel better? >> made me feel like the things we need to have happen on election day in a lot of the close states is coming to fruition. for a while there's been a voter interest enthusiasm gap between republicans and democrats. now democrats are catching up. the one number from the generic is that with registered voters,

voter than likely voters, the democrats have an edge, which means, as the reporter from miami said, it's about turnout. >> charlie and amy, our graphic. all the polls, the most recent best poll in all the senate ball the -- battlegrounds. you have seen iowa. the des moines register, they have a great reputation. louisiana, you saw georgia. arkansas, we had it at two. others have it bigger for the republicans. colorado, one point, new hampshire, two points in the democrats' favor. kansas, one point. charlie, you look at this, do you think they move in one direction? is this an '06, or do you think democrats have done such a good job maybe they can split the decision? >> our senate editor figured out if you look at the past eight elections that the tossups have tended to break by over two-thirds, 68%, one way or the

other. that was the lowest. in other words, the dominos never split down the middle. they all go one way or other. i think republicans are going to win the lion's share. keep in mind, these are home games for republicans. the first six seats that romney won by 14 points or more, and those are probably the first six democratic seats to go over the side. >> amy, is this an anti-democrat year, anti-obama year, or anti-incumbent year? what is it? sflsh >> it's an anti-establishment year. the establishment is the democratic party. the president is a democrat. democrats are the incumbent party in most of the senate seats. if you are frustrated and these guys in the polls found that that's the second most important issue for voters is breaking the gridlock. when you are the party in charge, you get most of the blame. >> bill, did the republicans, if they come up short, how are they going to second guess themselves?

>> i don't -- first i don't think they will come up short. >> i understand. if they do, what's the one thing bothering you about this? >> the one thing is big money, data analytics and the obama operation in the states of north carolina, iowa, new hampshire and the other places where they are used to running for president. that's what we don't know. we will see how political gravity, republicans versus that new technology, which wins on tuesday. >> fred, what's the second guessing among democrats? >> well, second guessing will be bad luck to have a lot of road games. >> a bad map? >> yeah. the six-year itch is important. the president's numbers are lower. in terms of the broader perspective, we're going to probably see a record low turnout. on your piece the discussion about anti-establishment, i think voters are voting, they are voting by not voting. >> that is.

very quickly to both of you, best and worst campaigns of the cycle? let's give the awards, regardless what happens tuesday. >> i will say cory gardner in colorado and maybe kay hagan. >> that's two of the best? >> best. who ran the worst? >> pat roberts. that's where he is. >> charlie? >> mitch mcconnell. the thing is, this guy -- there were people that did not want to vote for someone that was the most powerful members of congress. he ran a flawless campaign and is pulling away. governor side, i think governor rick scott is extremely polarizing. but i think they had an awesome campaign. is it enough? i'm not sure it's enough. but sometimes great campaigns still lose. >> worst campaign? >> i think i'm with you. pat roberts. >> i think -- i got to give the award for best to al franken. guess who we are not talking about today? closest senate election six years ago, al franken. recount.

all of those things. how did he survive six years? you got to give it to him. bill and fred, i will see you a lot. charlie and amy, we will see you a lot, charlie on tuesday. coming up, besides meeting voter, i met some candidates. president obama lost in some cases big in 2012. my interview with kaci hickox, the nurse from maine who fought and won her fight over being the nurse from maine who fought and won her fight over being quarantined. i'd just gotten married. i was right out of school. my family's all military. you don't know what to expect. then suddenly you're there... in another world. i did my job. you do your best. i remember the faces... how everything mattered... so much more. my buddies... my country... everything... and everyone i loved... back home. ♪ [ male announcer ] for all who've served and all who serve, we can never thank them enough. ♪ your goals, our experience.

your shoppers, our technology. your data, our insights. introducing synchrony financial, bringing new meaning to the word partnership. banking. loyalty. analytics. synchrony financial. engage with us. we have interesting campaign data for you from facebook on the states that i visited. it turns out, the more time an incumbent gets mentioned on facebook, the worse it might be for them. it's a sign, perhaps, that the race is not a choice number but a referendum. it's what a sitting member does not want. in louisiana, mary landrieu is getting 82% of mentions on

facebook. that's not good. same thing where pat roberts is 72%. both are struggling. of the uncouple beincumbents, o north carolinas are close. kay hagan is in the best shape. what we heard from the (vo) you are a business pro. solver of the slice. teacher of the un-teachable. you lower handicaps... and raise hopes. and you...rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle... and go. you can even take a full-size or above, and still pay the mid-size price. (pro) nice drive. (vo) well played, business pro. well played. go national. go like a pro.

twhat do i do?. you need to catch the 4:10 huh? the equipment tracking system will get you to the loading dock. ♪

there should be a truck leaving now. i got it. now jump off the bridge. what? in 3...2...1... are you kidding me? go. right on time. right now, over 20,000 trains are running reliably. we call that predictable. thrillingly predictable. welcome back. president obama hasn't been a big presence in the midterm campaign trail with many democrats actively distancing themselves from the white house. but it's striking that in the south he hasn't made a single appearance in the fall campaign. for the last leg of my road trip, i swung through the southern battleground states and met with the candidates that are fighting for their own political future.

our road trip stretched 3,100 miles to the straights that will decide control of the senate. it ended in the south where democratic dynastys are battling to survive where the president is unpopular. >> in this environment, there are no more get out of jail free cards. that he are gone. >> from north carolina to georgia, arkansas to louisiana, democrats are running away from the president. what should the president learn from this election season? >> i wish he was more in touch with rural america. >> do you think he doesn't understand rural america? >> how the whole country, not just parts of it. >> mark pryor is the last democrat left in congress. he is in a battle against tom cotton. >> people are as frustrated with anybody in the country. they are not frustrated with me. they know i tried. i tried to bring people together. >> in georgia, the highest unemployment rate in the nation, 7.9% in the backdrop for a

battle between michelle nunn, daughter of senator sam nunn and former businessman david perdue. >> my opponent is against closing tax loopholes that actually insent businesses to take jobs overseas. >> people were critical. dollar general created job and we out sources products. >> democratic senator kay hagan has localized her race, trying to make it about education cuts by the republican legislature, a charge her opponent, thom tillis has tried to deflect. >> if you look at my record, you would be hard pressed to say that we have gone down a partisan path, whether before we had the majority. >> you are saying you didn't. but the public thinks you did. this is not -- the democrats in washington aren't popular. the republicans aren't popular. what is the lesson you would

take to washington, the lesson you take away from the partisanship? >> we have to produce results. >> if democrats hold on in southern states, it will be because they win a numbers game, which relies on african-american turnout. in louisiana, snar mary landrieu says the president is unpopular but then she added this. >> very, very uphonest with you the south hasn't been the friendliest place for african-americans. it's been difficult for the president to present himself in a positive life. it hasn't been a good place for women to be able to present ourselves. >> reporter: in the final days, racially charged messages like these have circulated. the georgia democratic party put there's out. >> if you don't vote, we could have another ferguson here. appropriate? >> you know, i keep talking about ferguson from the lens of -- as a mom, because i think we all relate to its a parents and thinking about the loss of a

young man. >> would nunn have put that out? >> it's not something we have done. i think it's something that merits a conversation by georgia voters. >> our panel is here, michael, andrew ye andrea, joe. joe, we know it's a numbers game. it's polarized. there aren't swing voters. it's about democrats gets out african-americans, republicans running against the president. how much does that play a roll? you were a southern politician. >> i guess it does, every couple of years. in this case, obama has done well in north carolina and he's done well -- he's done pretty well in georgia. they have been campaigning there. that was shocking that mary landrieu would say that on air. >> robert, democrats have been talking about this privately for years. what say you on this issue,

president obama is a factor in his unpopularity in the south. >> i think we can't walk away from the history of the south. it's obvious. i think race is still the predominant factor in southern races. you see the vote trying to get out the black vote is what is going to either be the thing that sends mary landrieu and michelle nunn to the senate or not. what you see campaigns working on right now are the dropoff voters, people that voted in 2008 and 2012 in the presidential elections stayed home in 2010. the data are trying to search for those voters and get them out. >> michael, one thing we are not talking about is republicans targeting african-american voters. it's not happening. >> they are leaving the playing field to the democrats. there have been efforts by the rnc who put efforts in the ground at certain communities. it has not been there.

they seeded a lot of that ground to the democrats. it's interesting because there is not an energy in the black community for democrat candidates this year. we are seeing it in maryland where the african-american candidate is struggling against the republican. >> let's talk about this as a bigger picture here. does this feel like the same type of midterm election you have covered before, that we are headed to a mini-wave in the republican surge. >> what's difference is isil, ebola, a feeling of insecurity and the economic data. the fact that people are not seeing the progress in wages, in their income that they are seeing in terms of the overall number. the gdp is plus three and a half %, but they are not seeing it in their earning power. >> really quickly, if you had told me a year ago republicans would be sweating it out in north carolina, georgia, louisiana and arkansas a week

out, i would say, this isn't going to be a republican wave. so i don't think talking about african-americans, voting patterns in the south is a legitimate question. i think the bigger question is, why aren't -- why haven't republicans closed down north carolina, georgia, louisiana and arkansas by now? actually, i think -- the question is not about race. the question is about the republican base still diseffective. >> what it is -- what i found out, it's the economy. nobody is touching this. rural america, the economy, still stinks. democrats didn't talk to it very well. republicans haven't talked -- they say, anti owe because -oba. they aren't talking about what's staring rural america in the face. >> you asked the previous panel the second guessing after this race. i think it is the fact that neither side -- i think democrats needed to spend more time talking about what to do on the economy. as andrea said, the numbers may

look different than they did there 2008. but it's how people feel it in their lives every day that -- >> the numbers don't look different. you are going to come back. this why conversation, why haven't the republicans closed a deal, what should the democrats have done to put them -- we will keep that conversation going. i will take a quick break. i have rand paul coming up. is the republican party ready for rand? what will republicans do if they win control of the senate? what will republicans do if they win c[ male announcer ]te? at northrop grumman, we know in the cyber world, threats are always evolving. at first, we were protecting networks. then, we were protecting the transfer of data. and today it's evolved to infrastructure... ♪ ...finance... and military missions. we're constantly innovating to advance the front line in the cyber battle, wherever it takes us. that's the value of performance. northrop grumman.

that's the value of performance. tigers, both of you. tigers? don't be modest. i see how you've been investing. setting long term goals. diversifying. dip! you got our attention. we did? of course. you're type e* well, i have been researching retirement strategies. well that's what type e*s do. welcome home. taking control of your retirement? e*trade gives you the tools and resources to get it right. are you type e*?

as the company that's all about printing. but did you know we also support hospitals using electronic health records for more than 30 million patients? or that our software helps over 20 million smartphone users remotely configure e-mail every month? or how about processing nearly $5 billion in electronic toll payments a year? in fact, today's xerox is working in surprising ways to help companies simplify the way work gets done and life gets lived. with xerox, you're ready for real business.

welcome back. as we have been discussing, republicans expect to gain seats in the house. they're optimistic about taking the senate. what would the party do with control of both branchs of the legislature? i'm joined now by rand paul of kentucky, senator, sometime

libertarian and likely presidential candidate. welcome back to "meet the press." >> good morning. glad to be here. >> on tuesday, if the republican party gets control of the senate, of the voters said they are voting for the republican party or have the voters simply said they are voting against president obama and it's not a mandate for the gop? how should the gop interpret winning control of the senate if that does happen? >> i think it will be a combination of both. this is going to be a repudiation of the president's policies. the president is on the ballot in a way. this is a referendum on the president. no question, this is a big message to the president. but also it's a message that people are tired of nothing getting done. the gridlock in washington is largely been from the democrats who haven't allowed any legislative to come forward in the senate. i think if we win, you will see legislation passed. you will see legislation sent to the desk of the president. >> a lot of democrats would say house republicans, you know, and some other people were responsible for the government

shutdown so that both parties blame here. i want to ask you something about what you said the oert day in michigan. you said, remember dominos people. they admitted, our pizza crust sucks. the republican party brand sucks, you said and so people don't want to be a republican and for 80 years african-americans have had nothing to do with republicans, why, because a perception. the problem is the perception is no one in the republican party cares. you are admitting you have a brand problem. how do you fix the brand problem before 2016 if that's the case? >> i think you have to show up and then you have to say something. i've spent the last year showing up everywhere from howard university to berkeley to the urban league to ferguson, to the naacp. we have to show wfe have a policy. i'm sensing -- they say this to me time after time, we are being taken for granted. the democrats don't show up,

haven't seen my congressman lately. i think there's a huge opportunity for us. while not everybody is ready to become a republican, many people say they are glad i'm there and they want us to compete for their vote. >> the distrust of the republican party in the african-american community gets enhanced when they go for voter i.d. laws. you have been on both sides. you thought it was -- you said at one point the voter i.d. law drive was sort of over done by republicans and then you walked it back. which is it? >> it's funny the way you describe it. my position is pretty clear. i don't think there's a problem with showing your i.d. but i do think tere's a problem with republicans saying, our big issue for the campaign is going to be voter i.d. what it creates is -- a lot of african-americans understandably remember the '40s and '50s in the south and suppression of the south. what i try to do is i say the

opposite. i want more people to vote. i'm for enhancing vote. i sponsor a bill that would restore voting rights to people who had youthful, non-violent crimes that served their time. there are 250,000 people who can't vote because of an old conviction. i have a friend whose brother had a conviction 30 years ago and can't vote. i want to restore votes. i don't think it's unreasonable, i just think it's dumb for republicans to emphasize this and say, this is how we're going to win the election. early voting should be out there for everybody. i'm for early votes, more voting. let's go to the black community and compete for the vote. let's talk about criminal justice and school choice and economic opportunity. there are ways we can get african-american vote to come to the republican party. >> let's talk about a republican agenda if you get control. are republicans going to send a repeal of healthcare -- the affordable care act to the president's desk or not? mitch mcconnell said it was a priority. then he said we don't have 60

votes. it's not going to happen. he said maybe with 51 we can do it. are you lying when you say you are going to try to repeal healthcare? is it a serious effort? is is it something to gin up base turnout? >> we should repeal obamacare. i think what made people most unhappy is they lost their freedom of choice. it isn't about the healthcare policy. it's about whether every american can choose their doctor or choose their insurance policy. when they have made it illegal through obamacare to choose an inexpensive insurance policy, that should be overturned. we will introduce it and try to pass it. >> very quickly, in 2016, do you delay the start of your presidential campaign because you think republicans should try to have an agenda in the senate for six months? >> i have always said it's going to be spring until i make a decision anyway. my number one priority for january will be, there's $2 trillion of american profit overseas. i'm going to try to pass a bill to bring that home at a reduced

rate, put the money into roads and bridges and say we have problems here at home. let's rebuild america. he let's do nation building of america. there's bipartisan support for it. barbara boxer supports it on the left. i support it on the right. the president once upon a time supported it. my number one priority is to lower the tax to bring american profit and jobs home in january. >> rand paul, republican, junior senator from kentucky. in many ways king maker on the campaign trail. we will watch you tuesday. thanks very much. >> thanks, chuck. >> quick reaction from the panel. joe, i saw you -- >> we were saying during the break, republicans are going to have to have a positive agenda. republicans that are out there in red states talking about cutting education, cutting infrastructure are losing, even among -- i said five minutes ago, they will have to start talking about more than just cutting. he just did.

>> rand paul has figured this out. >> he figured out. it's smart, except for the repeal of of obamacare which say waste of time. >> and it's going to set the wrong tone. >> it's retro. >> how do they do it? >> exactly. everything else he said and talking about reaching out, going to the african-american community, he's parsing it on voter i.d. >> he's trying to -- the base has this -- it's a fetish. >> it's not a fetish. there are some of us that actually believe. >> is there voter fraud? >> by the way, i got 50% among african-american voters in my district. i campaigned in predominantly black districted. i don't think most americans are freaked out when you say you should show a picture i.d. when you go vote. >> i think the issue is sort of how many forms. >> by the way -- it shouldn't be -- republicans shouldn't lead with that. it's a big --

>> it's disadvantaging people that don't have i.d. >> the problem in voter i.d. and in restricting early vote is so more people won't vote. the news on that answer was, he wants to expand early vote. let's expand early vote. let's have 30 days of people voting so that working people don't have to leave work to go vote. let's do that. >> michael, very quickly. >> in colorado, things are going well for republicans -- >> but democrats -- >> michael -- >> rand paul has done this the smart way. he has listened to what people have to say. his conversation in the black communi is a legitimate conversation he has been having for over a year. i said for that same period of time, watch him. number two, the perception matters more than anything else. if i perceive that your policies are racist or impinge upon my access, it's real. all the talk about what's real or isn't, doesn't matter if i

feel you are suppressing -- >> he's the only republican -- >> got to do the pause button. a brief break. we will turn to ebola in america. my conversation with nurse kaci hickox who fought and won her battle over the quarantine issue. i'd just gotten married. i was right out of school. my family's all military. you don't know what to expect. then suddenly you're there...

in another world. i did my job. you do your best. i remember the faces... how everything mattered... so much more. my buddies... my country... everything... and everyone i loved... back home. ♪ [ male announcer ] for all who've served and all who serve, we can never thank them enough. ♪ [♪] great rates and safety working in harmony. open an optimizer +plus account from synchrony bank. visit myoptimizerplus.com to open an account. service. security. savings. synchrony bank engage with us. it's more than the car.er. for lotus f1 team, the competitive edge is the cloud.

powered by microsoft dynamics, azure, and office 365, the team can gain real time insights and instantly share information around the globe. when every millisecond counts, staying competitive begins with the cloud. this is the microsoft cloud. get to the terminal across town. are all the green lights you? no. it's called grid iq. the 4:51 is leaving at 4:51. ♪ they cut the power. it'll fix itself. power's back on. quick thinking traffic lights and self correcting power grids make the world predictable. thrillingly predictable.

the death toll from ebola is approaching 5,000. the situation is dire. here there has been a debate over the quarantining of health workers returning from west africa. with some of the most prominent governors arguing for compulsory quarantine orders. all week long, kaci hickox of maine has been fighting a public and ultimately successful battle against her state's efforts to quarantine her. on friday a judge ruled in her favor saying she did not need to be isolated as long as she is monitored for symptoms and let's health officials know where she is going in the state. she joins me now and her lawyer is here in the studio. let me start with your court victory. what was the goal in winning this court battle for you? >> well, you know, definitely the goal was to make sure that we are again talking about science and not politics.

i just read an op-ed today. when governor christie stated that it was an abundance of caution, which is -- he is reasoning for putting healthcare workers in quarantine for three weeks, it was really an abundance of politics. and i think all of the scientific and medical and public health community agreed with me on that statement. i'm really glad that the judge also agreed looking at the law. >> your home state governor there said a couple of things after this order on friday. number one, he said -- they are talking about you. she violated every promise she made so far. i can't trust her. he said he will abide by the judge's position. hele he said this about ebola. when you hear the governor say

we don't know what we don't know about ebola, what do you say to that? >> i think that's a very true statement. we don't know what we don't know about everything in the world. but we know a lot about ebola. we have been researching this disease for 38 years since its first appearance in africa. we know how the infection is transmitted from person to person. and we know that it's not transmitted from someone who is asymptomatic, as i am and many other aid workers will be when they return. so i hope that upon reflection, maybe he will change his tune as well. >> this morning in an interview you did you said because the community is concerned that you and your boyfriend were going to essentially stay clear and sort of self-quarantine. can you explain how you are going to do that? >> yeah. i want to clarify that a bit. i understand that the community has been through a lot in the

past week and i do, you know, apologize to them for that. i will not go into town, into crowded public places. i have had a few friends come visit me in my home. that's absolutely fantastic. but on the other hand, you know, my partner is currently in nursing school. there is zero scientific evidence that says that he shouldn't be allowed to return to his campus on monday. >> do you think there should be different rules based on population centers, that in new york city they should be -- there should be more precautions and different rules than say in the part of maine that you live in? >> i absolutely don't. again, i think when we look at the man from liberia who unfortunately died of ebola, no one else in his family has become ill yet. so, again, when we're looking at the science of how this disease is transmitted, it's not like

influenza. and we don't quarantine entire families when one person is positive for the flu. >> very quickly, are all healthcare workers going to need lawyers? >> hopefully not. hopefully this is a terrific win for healthcare workers. their voice need to be heard in this debate. it should not be the politicians. it should be the medical people. >> how do you feel about being pair roddies on "saturday night live"? >> we don't have cable here. i haven't seen it. i had five or six friends send me text messages. >> thank you. in a few seconds, it's back to the midterms. in a few seconds, it's back to the midterms. they aren't over and the

>engineers build, farmers grow, tartists create, but teachers, they aren't over and the they do it all. they build minds, they help children grow and they create leaders. make an impact on a child's life. get into teaching. the more you know.

and welcome back. we may be 48 hours from the midterms, but let's be honest, an even bigger election is going to get under way in 72 hours. that's already begun. the key contenders for the white house in 2016 have been making

their presence felt all week long on the trail. nbc's kelly o'donnell has been tracking that progress. >> reporter: campaign 2014 frequent fliers. >> charlotte's grandmother, my friend and yours, hillary clinton. >> reporter: after months insisting they are not the main attraction. >> i'm not one of the candidates running. i'm the interlude. i'm the halftime. >> reporter: clinton's 2014 tour covered 16 states. jeb bush made stops in ten. chris christie traveled 70 days hitting 37 states. they are among the most watched members of the 2016 contemplators club. >> well, it is true. i am thinking about it. >> i've been coy about it. i'm obviously thinking about it. >> reporter: then george p. bush did his thinking out loud, claiming his father is more than likely to jump in. the former florida governor said, hold on. >> you love him to death.

they have their own opinions. i will make up my mind at the end of the year. >> reporter: clinton did the talking that raised eyebrows when she veered left. >> don't let anybody tell you that, you know, it's corporations and businesses that create jobs. >> reporter: when a heckler got in chris christie's face -- >> you want to have the conversation later, i'm happy to have it. until that time, sit down and shut up. >> reporter: christie's leadership style bellowed far beyond new jersey. but there was no apology tour. >> it's advice i got from my mother a long time ago. christopher, just be yourself. >> reporter: the thinking about it class of 2016 is on this message. they're not in any hurry. for "meet the press," kelly o'donnell, nbc news. >> all right. panel is still here. we're going to go back and we're going to project the senate. you guys are going to collectively project the senate. let's go 2016 quickly. who's had a better 2014, in your

opinion, robert? has hillary clinton had a good enough 2014 to change the party back to a party of the clintons? >> well, look, that's going to be a process that takes more time than just 2014. i don't think she has had a particularly good run with the book. i wouldn't have done as many interviews as she did. i think they hastened the process of republican attacks, which were certainly going to come. i would have waited. i will say, as a democrat sitting here, you have to be impressed with what rand paul was saying. to have a positive talking point before the election is hugely important. i think jeb bush is one to watch. >> it's interesting on the clintons here. in the south, democrats are desperate for the party to become the party of bill clinton again. i don't know if they're all in on hillary, but they wish bill clinton could be running. >> bill clinton has been the most popular democratic surrogate. i don't know how you lose a book tour. that's a hard thing to lose. she's got plenty of time to regroup.

i think standing next to elizabeth warren and changing her position, you know, she is from wall street. she has taken the money. she was the senator from new york. you don't have to apologize. she has to be authentic, but she still has time on that and has enormous advantages. >> who is the republican front runner? >> rand paul. he's got the organization go gone -- on the ground. he's in all 50 states. he has young folks gravitating toward him. he has african-americans taking a pause and looking at him. as was acknowledged, democrats are saying, let's see. >> the party establishment is against him. >> that's separate. in terms of '14, he has done the best. >> do you agree with that? >> no. rand paul is going to run a great race. he's going to do bert than his father and he's not going to win. main street republicans win. you have jeb or chris christie. >> you think that's it? >> no. who had the best 2014? without a doubt, mitt romney. mitt was right on russia. mitt was right on iraq.

mitt was right in the debate. it's really unbelievable. >> let me say this. i would argue in 2014, the other candidate we're leaving out here, john kasich. not in a tough race. he could be the governor. >> it's a great point. he won with 49% of the vote. >> this time he will win with 60. all right. quickly, i got a toy here. we can start picking the senate. the final ten are here. let's -- i don't know any democrats that think arkansas -- let's assume the polls are right on arkansas and let's assume the polls are right now with kentucky. that gets republican at 47. they need four more. where do you go? how are we feeling about collectively on georgia? runoff? >> runoff. >> runoff. >> we'll leave that in there. iowa? does everybody think it's going to go republican? >> republican. >> wow. i don't buy it.

colorado? anybody here -- are you nervous about it? >> i'm not. only because republicans have 100,000 votes in the bank. >> the governor race is trending democrat. >> if you give them that -- we will say we got two runoffs. new hampshire, shaheen for now? >> yes. give us north carolina. >> give you north carolina. >> republicans have to find two and they can't afford to lose kansas or georgia. let's keep kansas in here. let's say alaska goes to form. they sit at 50. this is how the night could end up. two runoffs and greg orman in the middle. >> even though i have been predicted mary landrieu will win by 6 1/2 votes. >> she always wins by 6 1/2 votes. >> i don't see louisiana in a runoff going democratic in 2014. >> if it's for the senate. this is why this is on a razor edge. >> that's why. and i agree, i think louisiana at the end of the day will fall for republicans in a runoff. >> i think shaheen is in real trouble.

she should have a lot of -- >> new hampshire is the wave test. if scott brown -- that's an -- if scott brown on the east coast, if that's where it's happening and brown is winning -- >> i keep thinking that shaheen will win new hampshire. i keep hearing from democrats that she's in trouble. >> there it is. last word. >> biggest thing is geography. new hampshire is a purple state. she went with 52% six years ago at a high water mark. a bunch of the races, even kay hagan, who's run a brilliant campaign. >> in a midterm year she lost a race for the senate race. before we go, i should share lighter moments from our road trip where interviewed 43 voters, 10 candidates, 7 states. here is my advice for surviving a 3,153-mile road trip. it's all about roadside coffee. ♪

>> i like regular but -- bratwurst. they won't let me drink beer right now. i'm on the clock. good roadside coffee in the north is dunkin' donuts. good roadside coffee in the south, waffle house. that's why we are here tonight. my go-to snack. nothing better than gas station coffee. undecided? two hours of show in one. that's all for today. remember to join brian williams and myself and many of these folks here for election night. we will have complete coverage.

we will be back next week to try to figure out this agenda at this point, because if it's sunday, it's "meet the press."

coming up on "early today," a daredevil a daunting task without a net. as wallenda strikes again. an all inspiring 19-year-old college basketball player whose personal story goes well beyond the hard court. and the scramble of politics, just hours before millions head to the polls for election day. it's monday, november 3rd. "early today" starts right now. good morning, everyone, i'm