this sunday closing argumeums. president and the republicans focusing on immigration. >> republicans want strong borders, no drugs, no caravans. >> you mean the people of texas want the stop the caravan? >> secure our border, build the wall >> wle democrats talk about health care. >> you're going to have a governor who will wk to expand medicaid. >> health care is on the ballot this year. >> and who we are as a nation. >> maybe most of all the character of our country is on the ballot. >> this morningre on the ground in four of the most important battleground states, arizona, missouri, florida and texas. plus i'll talk to stacy abram

and governor bil hazlemu. one last look at where the race stands. will democrats win back the house? will republicans make gains in senate? what message will voters be sending to president trump? we'll have the results of our final midterm nbc news wall street journal poll. joining me for inside analysis, savannah guthrie, kasie hunt. cornell and nbc news correspondent tom brokaw.un welcome to sy and a special midterm edition of "meet the press." good sunday morning from our election headquarters right here. we are reporting on the first

national referendum on the trump presidency. at stake, all 435 house states. 35 senate seats this year. governors races and thousands of state legislative seats on the ballot. for the democrats great night for them would be winning back the house convincingly. somehow even gaining a senate seat. even if they don't gain control and w nearly a dozen governors mansions. the republican dream, hanging onto this house. solidifying their hold on the senate with gain of three or four seats hitting 54-55 in total, and holding their lossesv innors races to fewer than five. we have two days toego. we h a new poll completed early this morning. we were callingla that . among likely voters, democrats have a seven-point lead. that's a slight improvement for the republicans compared to two weeks ago when t democrats lead 50 to 41. like so much about this midterm

election, how people votes reflects how they feel president trump. the job rating has changed. it's 46 approv 52% disapprove. a 46% job rating for sitting president would mean his party was headed for a big defeat is it possible president trump has changed the rulesr that the geography of our political divide has changed the rules? even though election day is tuesday, some 33 million people have voted. it's a record for the early vote for midterms. we could be on our first everh midterm w100 million voters. we have correspondents across the country. these are the big four states we're focused on now. we'll begin in arizona where democrats a hoping to pick up an open senatese . vaughn, this is very, very close and in many way democrats think if they can't win an arizona

senate seat this time, when can they. >> reporter: arizona is the place where barry goldwater gave birth to modern day conservat e conservativi conservativism. it's the democrat who is trying to take the political mantle as the arizona maverick. she's been up on the airways highlighting herself as that western independent. if you look at mara mcsalcsally the republican, she's stood lidly behind president trump. having conversation os on t ground, there's been many independents who have expressed frustration with mcsally standing by the president.ly naith that health care vote that would have weakened protections for tho with pre-existing conditions. it will be quite telling on tuesday night what the future of arizona looks like here.

chuck. >> thanks very much. one guarantee, arizona will be sending a woman to the united states senate. that we do know and can call with confidence. let's turn to st. louis, missouri where morgan radford is there. claire mccaskill is in danger of losing the senate seat. josh hawley had agreed to be our guest b cancelled late yesterday afternoon citing his campaign schedule. don't think it was lost on us that a couf polls have shown a consistent hawley lead shrinking to a tie. what's going on? >> reporter: that's we's doubling down. he's decided to fire uhis base and focus on telling voters that control othe senate couome down to missouri. every poll shows him locked in a deadccaskill. she's in fight of her political life. in team says the vote missouri isn't as much about president trump as people outside of the state are led to be heve.

she say voters care about health care and about keeping local jobs. if you cross the aisle and talk to her voters, they say thene number issue is immigration. what's interesting here is it's ho can o come down to peel off the moderate voters and in which direction. here in missouri, unlike a lot of those other states, there's noet straight tioting. there's also no early voting. they will keep us guessing until the very end. >> missouri will tell us what the late vecered because of that lack of early vote. well done there. thanks very much. now to florida. it has aeverything. ight governor's race. a tight senate race. a half a dozen competitive house races. katie beck is inouth daytona for us. we had the president there last night. i have to say, is there something that both r desantis and rick scott, the two republicans at the top of the ticket, dhey need this last night? did thetr need donalp there in florida? >> donald trum thinks so.

he's beenloakingda a tough priority on the campaign trail. he's made multiple stops here including one just last night in pea, pensaclorida. he said barbed wire at the u.s. border can be a beautiful sight. dividedte is evenly when it comes to the senate race and the gubernatorial race.re folks counting on those endorsements, counting on the support from the president. we'll see more trump supporthi headed ts way when rudy giuliani heads to daytona beach to campaign for r desantis. >> thanks. in florida it'soing to be about what is the composition of the electorate. how much i nonh how much is nonh non-white? we won't know that until election day. let's go to garrett. beto o'rourke has been s aer

star. he's hoping to pull the upsai t ted cruz. in the last two weeks of the race, it's looked like a race.l is it r or not? >> rorter: it's real. the math still favors ted cruz. he's led in every public poll of this state and tans haven't elected a democrat since 1994.e' th been real momentum around the o' rourke campaign. he's been drawing these big diverse crowds all over the state. he's built aet out to vote operation from scratch. a lot of people compares this to the obama campaign. it minds me more of the trump campaign in his supporters are poll truthers. the numberso not capture the enthusiasm on the ground. >> what a great comparison because you'r right in the nooshl smartie pants people we thought we knew what we were

talking about in 2016. let's wait for thevote. thank you. thanks t all of our correspondents on the ground. joining me is the dem rat in maryland. he's the man in charge of getting democrats elected to the senatek welcome b to "meet the press." >> it's great to be with you. >>ou're the d triple c chair in the 2010 midterms when democrats lost more than 60 seats. it was the first midterm of president obama. compare t two atmospheres. >> i was d triple c chair in 2008 which was another good year nor democrats. on the one hand you have kind of a wave, a bluewa . how big, we don't know. in the senate races we have a

lot of senators who in states that donald trump won. for them they have been very clear from the beginning. their number within jone job isd up for the people o their states. if that means working with donald trump on something that helps theates, they ifwill. t means poopposing him and they will do that. it's a very different sort of political battlefield in senate races than house races. >> define at. good ni is a good night losing one senate seat? i don't want to define ad f night. wh what we see now is a situation a whole lotny better thane would have predicted 18 months ago. republicans were saying the would gain seats. no one is talking about that

now. we do he a narrow path to a senate democratic majority. it's a narrow path. it requires holding a lot of these very tough seats and picking up one of the four five republican seats where we're competing. as you know, everything comes down to turn out. we've got more than 7 senate races tt are dow to the wire error.in of >> i'm going to pick out four senate seats, two held by democrats. two held by republicans all in red rritory. you have to win one to have a good night and two to talk about the majoty. it's missouri, tennessee, texas and north dakota. missouri and north dakota and tennessee and texasns on of is it fair to say you can't go 0 for 4? >> you can't go 0 for 4 in all

those states. stat's not going to happen. let me ff all say no one should count heidi heitkamp out. she was down six points years ag claire mccaskill is always sticking up for missouri and known as a fighter for her state. in those two pick up seats, we have incgdibly str candidates who have also said is tojob, number one, stand up for their states working with donald trump if it heut fighting him if that's necessary to protect people in their state. >> tennessee and tex strike me as fascinating in this respect. they are both red states. you have one democratic nominee who has been comfortable using the i word, impeachment and he's within striking distance. you have one democrat who has been saying no, no, if you worry about party i'm not going to win. he's almost running as a centurist republican in a state. they are both

position.ame what does that tell you about where the democratic messaging works st? is it better to be base progressive like beto? >> it tells you that the quality of the cdidate is really important and their ability to communicat on issueseople in their states care about. we have candidates in both texas d tennessee who are doing exactly that. as you say, different approaches as you know in texas. hillary clinton got 45% of the hete. in tennessee didn't get close to 45% of the vote. look, what you see in beto is somekidy who is w to really expand an electorate that can be expanded in texas. in tennessee, the electorate can't be t expandet mump. you are seeing larger tn outs than typical midterm elections.

his job is to stand up for the state of he's talked about areas where he can work with the pre adent but heo talked about areas where he'll fight the president like the issue that is top of mind for most voters around the country which is protecting people with preexisting health conditions. >> a few democrats is sort of been trying to reject the party label a bit saying she's not a proud democrat. they all made promises they won't be just sort of blank checks for the democratic . leadersh phil bredisen said he won't vote. >> those members running i'm sure will fulfill theirco itments. that dupoesn't mean we don't ha a strong leadership team in the

united states senate. this was an example of what i was talking about earlier. they won't senators whose number one job is to stick up for their states. sometimes that mean working with party leadership. sometimes that means working i th opposite direction. that's very different than republic cdidates who are simply rubber stamp trump supporters. what we see from voters, even ic repus, is they want a senator who is going to hold the president accountable and also work with the preside if it' good for their state. >> if a blue wave comes ashore, there's one place where tre appears to be a rip tide and that's the coast of the jersey shore. let me read what the new york star ledger said choke it down and vote for me n menendez. it's a toss up now.

they cho down their reluctance and vote for menendez. he's no gem but he's better than hugan. the democrats make a mistake when they didn't encourage a primary charger so at aum min he could litigate this problem. >> no. bob menedez has been a fighter for the people of new jersey. they do not want trump rubber stamp. hugan would be a trump rubber state in theiti states senate. the reason he's competitive is he spent tons of hiswn mone money he got by -- >> it's not because of his legal problems. >> there's no doubt that he has an issue. it's also the fact that bob has spent 30 million of his own money. money he gained as the ceo of a pharmaceutical company that

real over charged people for cancer drugs. i don't think the people in new jersey want somebody who made that way. i'm confident that bob menendez will win. >> i'm going to leave thi there. d triple c chair a decade ago. '08 and '10. nobody knows this country's elhition probably at point etter than you other man my pals. >> thanks. joining me now is republican governor of tennessee. he's the person of charge in getting republicans elected tos state houacross the country. welcome to "meet the press." >> good morning. thanks. >> let m start with similar question i started with. what would you c gsider ad night for republican governors? is it limiting the number of losses? a lot ofu're defending seats like the senate democrat.

how would you define a good night for the gop? map it's isovernor' reverse of what it is in the senate. there's 36 governors race 26 of which the republicans hold the seat. it's easy to say this is a little bit more of an uphill battle for u h than it been historically with that many seats. we feel good about the posit'rn in but we're not blind to have the fact that a fiesident's t midterm when we have this many seats, we knew we had our work cut out for us. we have worked hard. we raised a record number of money this c and making certain we're putting the money es good use in the campaign. >> it's intng if you look at the great lakes region in general sort of that part of the midwe midwest, it seems that's going to -- it's possible you'll have democratic governors in pretty much all of the states that touch a great lake if things don't go your way and i'm thinking wisconsin but michigan

you're behind and all of these. what do you need to do in the midwest to make it feel like it's a better night than we think you'l have? >> eight years ago we had a pret great night i terms of taking over a lot of those governors in michigan a wisconsin and illinois as well. wisconsin, scott walkw, we k what great campaigner he is. he's one of the best retail politicianse've seen and has good results to show in wisconsi v that's a very tight race. i have a lot of faith in the end that the people of wisconsin will re-elect scott. michigan is a bit more of an uphill battle for us. he's closed a lot stronger than people thought. while that's a difficult part of are by noy for us, we means throwing in towel. >> it's an interesting conundrum here. you have a couple of repubatcans

will cruise to re-election. at the same time you're strug struggle in some of the states in america, oklahoma and kansas. what are hogan and baker doing right?

>> i want to ask you about two stories in they feature republican secretaries of state who are republican nominees. there's some democrats who don't think the votes will be counted fairly. talking about kansas and chris kobak. should they have resigned their seats? should they have recused themselves from the voteco t? >> i don't think so. i don't know th spercifics of how the process works. while he oversees the thprocess e's a lot of people involved in that. if our secretary of state was running i wouldn't ask him to step down because there's so ma checks and balances in the process that i just don't h fe anr about the integrity. i don't know how in kansas and georgia they work but i don't c have acern about that. >> president trump is a huge issue in the florida governor's race. in some places some candidates run away from them.

i canhink larry hogan and charlie baker. some have been running with them. is it safe to say that president some complicates things in places and helps in other places? if you le orida, is it on the president? >> i don't think it's any race is eirely on the president, win or lose. i thinkven or's race it comes down to is the senator said just prior toth , even more so in governor's rices it's about the quality of the candidate. k in florida the choice is this. in florida i think the numbers ar right, i think they added about two and a half million jobs in the last eight years under rick scott. it's even morel crimtical tax plan, you can no longer deduct.

florida is on the boom. if i was florida, i would not want to turn that around. i compete with florida all the time. i have a unique perspectiv we're competing with them all the time for new jobs. to me if they turn around where they were going, the direction they been in now, it would be a big mistake. >> let me ask you abo your home state, you said the democratic nominee. he's making the argu'mnt, another pragmatic. i'm going to do what's best for tennessee. you said that's always been a good argument in tennessee. it a good enough argument for him to pull the upset? >> i don't think so. that has been the governor's . argume he can point back to a good term as governor. to a couple things. marsblackburn has run a good race. i think they are pel positioned. tennessee is state where the kavanaugh hearings did change

things. people realize it esn't matter i don't know exactly but i think the kavanaugh hearings has a five o six point swing in tennessee. i think marsha will winha by much. >> republic thanks for jour timyour time. what does an unusually large turn out mean? it means predictions can turn out to be meaningless. we'll look at some of the more memorable moments of the campaign. >> i'm not going to bow down to the alteral of polit correctness. i'm not going to let the media smear me. >> i'm not calling him a racist. i'm saypeople. >> i'm not calling mr. ♪ traders -- they're avaays looking for ages. the smart ones look to fidelity to find them. we give you research and data-visualization tools

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k. welcome b we have more room in our election headquarters here in new york. so that means we haveore panel, more cow bell. it's now an election night -- it can't be an electi night without nbc news senior correspondent tom brokaw so you're right he's here. "today" show co-anchor savannah gurie, nbc news capitol hill correspondent, kasie hunt, cory belcher and hugh hewitt. i want to show you some of the wordlouds that came out of our new poll because we asked a simple message to voters. m whatssage do you want to send with your vote if you could send reat message. what folks who prefer a republican-controlled congress told us. you see immigration pops up big. do your job, wo together. and now take a look at the message that those that prefer c democraticgress. get rid of trump, stand up against trump. but do your job shows u there

too. and work together shows up there. >> we need a work together, do your job party. >> there you go. >> that's what i takeaway. this is so happy. this is a bipartisan result here. it's interesting. i mean i was listening to governor haslam talking about it's not going to be trump's fault if, for example, they lose in florida. but the problem is, is that trump in contrast to many presidents you and i have coveacd hasally literally almost put him on the ballot. a vote for marsha is a vote for me i tennessee and so forth. so he's -- you have to say he's a gambling ma he's all in on it. he's saying, first of all, he's working his tail off. he's had 11 stops in the last three days and he has said it's about me. and most presidents, even when it is a referendum on them and we all know it will never accept that. trump is all in saying, yes, it is about me, so that's what tuesday is going to be in my opinion. >> fdr is the last president to do this, tom. >> it has not just the optics but the tone of a presidential

election, and that's where we are in american politics because it's now24 jam packed. i must say that in the last week or so what has been very unsettling to me is to see omerican soldiers unspooling wire on theer with weapons nearby. this is how we're dealing with what is not yet a threat of any kind. if you had imagination in the white house, you'd g u.n. and you'd go to the very many private agencies in this country, international rescue community, catholic charities, and work out a deal to get them stopped on the mexican border. say to mexico if you want ai'r from us, y going to have to get involved in this. instead it's pointing a gun. i don't just think that's what this country is about, but that's also what's elated this a presidential election. >> can i just say this, though, chuck. i spen the last week, four states, four days, talking to voters, and republican andan democraticdates. and while tom is right, this election to a certain extent has

national tones and i certainly talk to republicans who sayat immin is their top concern, i actually came away with a much different picture. i went to an event with the house speaker and scott walker who's in the race of their life and uhliyou listen to them and u barely know that president trump was in the white house. he was barely mentioned by name. they wanndto talk about jobs the economy. every republican candidate i talked to, i spoke with david young in iowa, he said the same thing when you pushed these questions. they do not -- the republicans in tough races, they do not want to be on theerrain the president is on. now, they acknowledge they need excitement from their base, the presidenrying to do that, but in many ways i think he's been a bigger problem than help for a lot these guys. >> i'll go back to the point mr. brokaw was makin's being practical. but look at that word cloud. for those who want republicans in control,on immigras the big thing in the word cloud. i think the president is driving this because they think -- they think midterm elections are about base turnout. they always have and democrats have tdone a poor job of turnin out their base.

so looking at the "wall street journal's" number, the vote higher right now than it was for george bush in '06 or barack obama in 2014. no the president's job disapproval righ really means something. >> hugh, i had a republican pollster said if rick scott doesn't win, it's not rick scott's fault,on it'sd trump's fault. >> when i listened to chris van hollen, a heard less than an enthusiastic guy. when i got the poll this morning, i went to the one number, are you very satisfied or somewhat unsatisfied.74 %, people think their own personal econocs are good. that is a remarkable thing for a >> but then you put that side-by-side with the wrong number. it's like we're not in a economic recession, we're in a political recession. >> but you're in arizona and you've got to pick martha

mcsally, who did the starstpangled banner l night at the asu game, do you vote to keep the economy humming or vote against president trump? >> i've got to show you what donald trump t economy, though. it was something else. take a listen to what he said about why he doesn't talk about hugh.conomy, >> he's got the greatest economy. why is he talking about the border. many you can only say so times that we jatst c 250,000 jobs last month, right? they all say speak about the economy. but sometimes it's not as t excititalk about the economy, right? >> butac the of the matter is, hugh is right. at the end of the day people have the best job creation economy we've had sce the 1960s. in the industrial midwest where trump did so well in the last e ection, it's booming out there. onomy is humming. you cannot, you cannot t overestima importance of the economy when people walk into that booth. >> really quie'ly, but h

the fundamental problem with that. these college educated women in theuburbs who are leading the charge of resistance going on, it's not about the econy for them. what's happening in washington, the disrespect, it is not -- it's disconnected from the economy r so many of these suburban women. >> this is where health care n. plays health care plays into this because it's as much an economic issue as it is a personal issue in this election. premiums are so high people are worried about bankruptcy and it's contradicting the other numbers. >> the question is if it's trump on your mind, how are you going to vote? when we come back, democrat stacey abrams, who's in that neck-in-neck race to become governor (vo) this is not a video game. this is not a screensaver. this is the destruction of a cancer cell by the body's own immune system, thanks to medicine that didn't exist until now. and today can save your life. ♪

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president trump who is holding a rally in macon, eorgia, there this afternoon. joining me now is the democratic nominee for governor, stacey abrams. if she wins, she would be the nation's first female african-american governor. ms. abrams, welcome back to "meet the press." >> thank you for hav. g >> let me be honest, did you think the sunday before the election you'd be in a coin flip race? >> we were preparing for every eventuality and i'm excited to ben aead heat because i know that we are going to turn out voters who have never voted before. >> it feels as if the finalut debate ahis election has really been about how to count the votes and who gets to vote. it hasn't been as much about some of the issues. how concerned are you that this is going to be a fair vote? i know the last time we were yo, expressed optimism that this was going to be a fair electionu that you would the results. do you still feel that way? >> i do. we have seen unprecedented turnout in this race from people

who normally do not engage and do not vote. some of that has been driven byn the conversaof the voter suppression. one of the best ways to encourage people to use something is to tell them someone is trying to take it away. luckily we have had two court decisions against brian kemp. one that requires absentee ballots be counted even if the signatures aren't exactly the same and a second one that forces him to stop using the exact match system to disqualify voters who are qualified. but what is more important is that we have talked about we've talked about jobs and health care and education, and that's also engaging peop and turning them out in waves that we have not seen in georgia in decades. >> the president is going to be macon, georgia, today. he said you just simply weren't qualified to be governor. he didn't say why. how did you take that assessment? >> i find his assessments to be vapid an shallow. i am the most qualified candidate. i am a business owner, i'm aax attorney who was trained at yale law school, i am a civil leader who helped register 200,000

georgians. i'm a very accomplished political leader who worked across the aisle toacimprove ss to education, to transportation, and i blocked the single largest tax increa in georgia history. there is no more qualified standing for this office in orgia and i lo forward to having the voters of georgia say the same. >> you know, it's interesting, when oprah winfrey came toor campaignyou, she said something that may have surprised some of your supporters that were in the audience that day. take a listen. >> i am a registered independent. because i don't want anyrty and i don't want any kind ofrt an influence telling me what decisions i get to make for myself. >> obviously you want to win over s independents, on one hand, of course having somebody asamous as oprah winfrey saying i'm an independent, come on, independents come with me and vote with stacey amab

but do you think that sends a negative message to democrats as you're trying to fire demo rats upt them to support your campaign? >> i believe oprah's presence fires people up because she has beenntfiercely indepener entire life. i think what she's saying is this is an election about the issues. listen to the conversations happening between the candidates look at whose showing up, who's talking about issues, who has comprehensiv plans for your life and make a decision not based on party but on record and on intention. i'm the only candidate who shows up every time whoas detailed comprehensive plans for georgia and most importantly who keeps her promises and honors her commitment i think what she is signaling to independents and everyone else is that this is the time tke a choice based on who's best for virginia, and she believes -- who's best for georgia and she believes i am it and so do i. >> you've calle your opponent a liar and used some harsh

language. maybe democrats make a few gainh e, but you're going to be dealing with a republican legislature. you have to work across the aisle if you're goingto accomplish anything. how do you repair this divide? let's be honest, it feels worse than ever. how are you goin to try to do this? >> number one, i've run this campaign going to eve single part of the state. i have not ignored a single community or county because i believe that my job to speak to every single voter. number two, if you look at the issues, talk abo education, high-class education for everyone, access to health care invery community and making sure that we have good-paying jobs. this cutscross partisanship. most importantly, i can stand on my record. i was the leader of democrats in a majority republican legislature and able to work t acro aisle and get good done. we can disagree on principles, but we have a common responsibility to georgians. ve always said people don't care about your party, they care about their lives. as the next governor, my goal is going to be to bri everyone

together to solve the problems that we can solve together, ading with my lues, faith, family and service, but recognizing that everyone comes to the table as a georgian and we have to work together. >> is there an idea that your opponeke, brian , put forward that if you would you would actually also put forward? >> absolutely. we completely agree on the need toin crease teacher pay. we agree on the need for public safety. we just have ade different on how we get there and whose responsibility it is. he has some good slogans but no comprehensive plans for what he wants to accomplish. on have not only slogans but detailed plans where we're going to go and how we're going to pay for it. you don't have to raise taxes to raise expectations and outcomes. >> if you're running for re-election four years from now, what's the one accomplishment you have to have in order for you to feely deserve -election. >> the expansion of medicare, creating thousands of jobs and making certain that we repair our broken mental health system

so every person io georgia faces trouble, faces challenges, does not feel the stigmaof mental health and has access to substance abuse trtment and mental health treatment. if we can get that done that's the baseline for a lot of work. >> this legislature has rejected it before. what makes you election will make them not reject medicaid? >> 17 stes led by republican done so, 15 led by democrats. the states that expanded medicaid have seen their costs go down, outcomes improve d increases in their bottom line. i think that legislators on both side oaisle, especially republicans who represent these rural hospitals on the brink of closure are goinng to be wil to do what it takes to save the lives of their constituents. >> stacey abrams, i've got to leave it there, theno democrati nee for governor of georgia. ampaigning throug december so i guess rest up and stay safe on the trail.

thanks for coming on. >> thank you. we have invited republican brian kemp todi appear as w the last time that we had stacey abrams on, and once again h declined. when we come back, how to watch election night. the clues i'm going to befo lookin to see which way the night is going. >> republicans can't hear you boo, but they can hear you vote. >> i need your vote for a republican house. i need your vote for a republican senate. so we can continue this incredible movement. ♪ can i get some help. watch his head. ♪ i'm so happy. ♪

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welcome back. data download time. we've got races obviously in every time zone across the country, including all the late alaska time zon this tuesday night, so it's possible we may not know who controls the hous the senate, gubernatorial races, until the wee hours of the ysrning. maybe later. in one case months later. but we actually could know how the night is going pretty early on with a few key raceson the

east coast. here is what i'm looking for. in the battle for the house, we have 25 republican-held seats where polls will close before 8:00 p.m. so you'll have a pretty good idea as you can see where the house is headed. but let's look for specific clues. in the battle for senate, indiana senate, the earliest poll closing is the state of indiana. that senate race neck in neck. we'll have a pretty good idea oe which diion the senate is going on the republican side with indiana here. that said, if it's reallyclose, we could be waiting very, very late for gary, indiana. let's go to some key bellwethers in the house. lexington, kentucky. kentucky's sixth district. whenever democrats control tngress, they controls seat, that's why we're watching that one early on's then l go to the state of virginia. they have four congressional districts, different types of republican-held districts which will tell us whether we'll see a wave or not. the easiest district to win is

virginia's 10 the swingiest seat is virginia e h, the 2nd district. the next one is david brat, virginia 7, richmond suburbs. he's your wave watch seat in virginia, the charlottesville district and t gn soms almost all the way to roanoke. if democrats are winning this at then it's tsunami watch time. when we come back, end game and the growing number of republican the growing number of republican house seats now in the hi, kids! i'a carl and i'm oker. do you offer $4.95 online equity trades? great question. see, for a full service brokerage like ours, that's tough to do. schwab does it. next question. do you offer a satisfaction guarantee? a what now? a satisfaction guarantee. like schwab does. man: (scoffing) what are you teaching these kids? ask your broker if they offer award-winning full service and low costs, backed by a satisfaction guarantee. if you don't like their answer, ask again at schwab.

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. back now with end game. i want to put up a simple chart, guyswhich is presidential approval and number of seats lost in a midterm. first midterm. let me show you, we have donald trump'rating, 46%. we don't know how many seats his party will lose. check out barack obama in his first midterm. his apoval rating47%. 63 seats were lost. bill clinton 48%, 54 seats. hugh hewitt, i 46%. ve some republicans going, well, hey, you know, that's su yivable. but look historically, and i think one of the things we failed to do in 6 was remember history was working against

clinton, third term is very difficult here. history says b this cou a drubbing. >> i thought six months ago it was going to be. het was a signal event that makes this different, brett kavanaugh. vernor haslam brought it up to you. i think on wednesday everyone talking about brett kavanaugh and the lingering impact, deep decisive across tht states in places like montana, in places like florida, as haslam said, in tennessee, i think kavanaugh is going to be the term on wednesday that's going to be in the word cloud of pundits. >> you know, cornell, if we're missing this election in '16 the miss was missing a trump surge at the end. if we're missing something today that in two days we'll see, what are we missing? >> i'1 we missed the protest vote of young people. i think what we're missg, i hate to say this because i'm a pollster, our polling numbers are not going to be accurate because we don't know what the heck the electorate -- >> because turnout will be so big? >> i just got 8 text from the mayor in atlanta and she's like

they have never seenturnout like this. stacey is expanding this electorate. democrats came2 ,000 votes short the last time in the governor's race there. he saw that and she started working to expand the electorate. we have younger voters turningat out a higher pace. i don't trust any of the horse race numbers and i'm a pollster. >> neither do i, kasie. shh, don't tell our pollsters and i love our pollsters. i have to say i'm a little nervous too because of ts turnout. >> chuck, the one thing i don't think we should lose sight of, and toin a cer extent it feels obvious because we've talked about it over and over again, but women and the w t thaty have responded to this president. the number of people -- i bumpe into somebody on the street in kansas city. we call it man on the street interviews. she was walking out of rapa bread with her breakfast. >> a woman on thveestreet. >> a woman on the street. and she had hosted a political fund-raiser for the democratic woman running in kansas city. she had never done anything like thatefore in herlife. she talked about how just

absolutely angry and upset her neighbors we're seeing it in the candidates in these house races not just think d underestimate that. >> you know, you guys i want you to tackle this question. one of the most important swing voting groups in 2016ere people that didn't like either candidate and they broke for donald trump two and sometimes 3-1 depending on the state.e right nowve found if you don't like either party, you're voting nearly 3-1 democratic, savannah. >> i think it's a geography is destiny thing. what hugh just talked about and what kasie just talked about. hugh is telling the story in the kavanaugh e the hearing was a senate saver for the republicans. we'll probably all conclude that. and n the suburba house districts, it's the fired-up emales who have had it. they don't likew the president is acting and it doesn't matter how strong economy may be, they want to send a protest vote. i think what's most fascinating. states are little laboratories, like we used to say in law school. is is an experime on tuesday night. which method is going to work for democrats? is it to be a moderate, somebo

who's so moderate they seem like a republican like joe donnelly ins indiana or the beto o'rourke and stacey abrams model,the progressive change the electorate bring out people and i think we'll get answer to that on tuesday night. >> tom, put a little cold water on allf this. does anything change wednesday morning? even if it's a democratic wave, democrats win the senate and the house, what changes in our politics >> well, what troubles me is we'll end up again with a pudding without a theme. we'll have democrats probe ly in use on the upside. i think the senate will probably stay the same.'r and just going to have to muddle through for the next two years. the country is t still going be deeply, deeply divided. when you're talking about women, for example, i've been listening to women out there as well. kavanaugh had a big impact on suburban women who liked they didn't like what they saw,

frankly, and drifted back across. so we ve a real mishmash. we've not talked about parknd, we've not talked about las vegas, we've not talked about what happened in pittsburgh a week ago. we are a country that is slaughtering our own citizens on a regular basis. maybe not in those big numbers, but too often. >> well, i tell you, gun control messages have apparently been working. we'll see if it happens on tuesday. here on ight back tuesday night with my colleagues lester holt and savannah guthrie. midterm coverage on nbc bens at 8:00, 7:00 central. don't miss it. that's all we've t for day. thanks for watching. we'll be back next week post midterms, because, if it's sunday, it's "meet the press."

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