from washington, the mclaughlin group. the american original. for over two decades, the sharpest minds, best sources, hardest talk. the mclaughlin group is brought to you by metlife. guarantees for the if in life. issue one, flat stat. >> the bottom has fallen out for democrats. it's mainly due to the economy, the bad economy and the factemp 9.6%. no change.

the market was flat and from au the market was flat. wages were mostly flat, but the economy is not flat. the economy's transmisnot idolling. jobs are scarce, competition is stiff and in construction and idolling. jobs are scarce, competition is stiff uring, jobs were lost. but private bs were lost. but private employers added 64,000 payroll jobs in september. healthcare gained, hospitals but now brace for impact, now b september marked the 14th straight month that unemployment remained higher than 9.5%. that 14 month streak is the worst streak since the 1930s. eighty years ago, pat, do you remember that? question, the september jobs report is the last one to be released before the elections three weeks from tuesday. what will these numbers mean on november 2 for the democrats? pat. >> i think it means they are going to lose the house, john. that's gone back and forth. the real problem here is the 14

straight months. the stimulous money is running out. states and federal government are going to be cutting budgets in the coming year and it looks like there's one card left to play and that's the federal reserve, basically buying up enormous amounts of debt, putting out dollars into the economy, which means an inflation may be coming down the road, which eleanor. >> well, these pictures -- these job numbers put a gloomy overhang on the election, but i don't know that it's any gloomier than it was. there are glimmers of hope out there for the democrats. the glimmers of hope camp and the woe with me camp. i am not sure the republicans are going to take over the house and if they do, they would provide a nice foil for the president to run against because if you look at what their candidates are saying, pretty extreme positions. what is bringing the democrats back to some extent is making

the contrast with the republican candidates that are out there. they are for tax incentives. they want to eliminate the minimum wage. they want to phase out medicare, social security. and so if you can make it a contrast between two candidates, two people as opposed to a referendum on america's disappointment with barack obama not being able to perform a miracle and dig us out of this worst downturn since the great depression. if it's a contrast that the democrats have some hope. >> it seems to me back in 2008 when he was campaigning, he sold himself for something of a miracle worker. democrats have controlled this congress for going on almost four years now. they have controlled the white house for nearly two years. this is their economy. they now own it. have you noticed that very few democrats are out there blaming bush for this economy? it no longer works. this is theirs. and what voters now see is that all of the democrats policies, pat mentioned the stimulous.

you are looking at cap and trade, you are looking at obama care. you are looking at increased regulation. huge tax burdens coming down the pike on january 1 unless they do something about the bush tax cuts. enormous uncertainty and enormous fear out there, which is why small businesses, investors, don't want to move. they don't want to invest money. they don't want to hire anybody because it's a huge overhang of uncertainty on top of the fact that this administration, this congress put tnt under the national deficit and blown it up. now you have the overhang of enormous debt in this country. and all of that is casting a huge pull on the economy and votedders in november are going to slap down the democrats big time. >> go out on the ledge time, right? in piling it on, you want to take note that gallops recording of unemployment was 10.1%. what we saw here was 9.6 was the bureau of labor of

statistics. do you trust gallop? >> i do. when you look at total unemployment. it's closing in on 19%. that includes all the people who are under employed, working part-time who want full-time work. we got another report from the labor department just this week that showed the job losses last year were much greater than anybody thought. >> are you going to try to relieve obama's situation in this conversation here? >> well, obama has to be frazzled by it all. what does work is running against the republican congress, which is possibly looming. and once republicans are put on the defensive as what they would do about the economy, that's where they begin to lose. i have talked to republicans off the record that it may be better off if we don't win the house. it's better to run against obama than run in favor of a program. >> what advice do you have for

obama? >> to run the contrast campaign that eleanor is talking about. where you talk about -- let's imagine what the house will look like if we have republicans in control. imagine what the senate will look like. >> what do you think she should do after november 2? do you think she should leave the country? he is out of here. >> this is not a great desirable job for anybody right now to be president. but he's doing it. but that's okay. our economy is global. >> hurry up, we want to get to the exit question. >> if we had pelosi, reid, and obama there, if the republicans keep the house, you're going to have a tea party war with the republicans and the tea party guys want to take an ax to the budget and the republicans are going say, hold on. >> forget the tea party. what about the new entrance to the house of representatives? they aren't all tea party. there will be others, too. are they going to be satisfied?

>> everybody is going to be influenced by the tea party man >> okay. >> and don't get the house, there will be a blood letting in the republican party as well because they blew this fantastic opportunity. if we had divided government, maybe the two parties will come together and inject into this economy what is needed and that is big infrastructure projects. infrastructure banks. >> i will bet you that infrastructure will be on the agenda and the republicans would go for it. >> exit question. will voters expect positive changes in the economic outlook as a result of the november election? pat buchanan. >> if the republicans win, they will expect them, but they will be disappointed. >> eleanor. >> they will expect them, but the republicans may want to do something affirmative as opposed to standing on the sidelines. >> they will have to put a new chairman in. >> what does that mean? >> committee action, that's

where it all takes place. >> like paul ryan would be the new chairman of the budget committee. look, the republican party has been painted as the party of no by the democrats. they have been the party of stop and that's why they are going to make huge gains in november. the american people are not sold. >> voters don't expect great changes, they just want to change what is up on capitol hill now. so i don't think that people are expecting an overnight recovery. they are waiting to hear what republicans are going to do when they have a chance. >> you resigned to all of those? >> i resign to what? >> the expectation of what is going to happen. >> i'm always a pessimist on these things, john. remember '94? i don't think anybody predicted the republican blood bath. >> fatalism. when we come back, rearranging the chairs. the forecast is full of ifs. retirement these days,

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issue two, rearranging the chairs. >> pollsters and pundents generally agree that the republicans will retake control of the house of representatives. people want lower taxes and small government. the principle reason why republican president, george bush, lost the house and the senate in his midterm. second term elections in 2006. gw spent too much money. barack obama has done the same, many believe. the current house lineup, democrats 2, 5, 6. republicans 1, 7, 9. for control 2, 1, 8. assuming republicans gain control of the house, john boehner, minority leader becomes speaker of the u.s. house of representatives. republicans will gain house of representatives. all congressional committees in the u.s. congress practically all of the action takes place

on the committee level. and chairmanships are the key to the committee action. assuming all goes ed towns of new york. as chairman, isa will be able to hold investigation and issue subpoenas to the white house and its staff. cabinet officials and heads of government agencies to testify requested. >> question, as a group, how powerful and how tough are these republican chairman?

eleanor clift. >> well, there are some like fred upton, who is going to take over is a moderate republican and i don't think democrats would have any great issue with him. they would probably applaud his chairmanship. darryl isa is primed to make obama's life miserable. i mean he will investigate everything that can be found whether it's there or not and he will be reminiscent of chairman dan burton during the clinton years. he is a disaster for the democrats and probably for the republicans, too. i think paul ryan is a smart guy. he has some budget plans that no republicans will sign on to because they are too extreme. but if he is serious and you have a serious partner in the white house, i mean perhaps there's some opportunity for common ground there. it's not an unmitigated disaster. >> i think a lot of incoming republicans will be happy to sign on to paul ryan's budget plans. paul ryan is the most creative conservative thinker that the republicans have.

he is young. he is energetic and as chairman of the budget committee, he will be gang buster because he will go line by line through the obama budget. the congress refused to pass the budget. they left town without a budget or an appropriations bill or a tax bill. >> continuing resolution? >> they did a continuing resolution, yeah. the other very important chairmanship that you left out is homeland security in the house and that will be taken over if the gop wins by peter king who is outstanding on the islamic terrorist threat and other national security issues. >> you calling the chairman universally tough? >> i don't know all of them, but i would say in the positions that matter. homeland security, budget, appropriations, yes, they are tough. >> paul ryan is a very important one and he does have a deadly serious program for cutting that budget. but he only has because you are talking about serious, serious cuts. you get right down to doing that, it's not like you spent too much. you get down to the details and you'll have blood all over the

floor and a lot of republicans will recoil and the tea party republicans will support him and that's where the war is coming. >> that big massive tea party majority. >> they influence everybody, though. >> you talk like there is going to be hysteria. >> there's going to be a war. >> give me a break. >> with a budget like that? >> why would they want to ruin the situation? he has subpoena power. >> john, you're talking -- >> obama's government, except for the house. >> the deficit is 10% of the entire economy. >> yeah, you're going to have republicans elected on let's slash the deficit. and then they are going to get up there and they are going to look at what that means if you do that and as you pointed out, republicans don't sign on to what paul ryan is doing. essentially wants to privatize medicare and probably social security as well. you can't do that without having -- paying a huge political price and the republicans won't want to pay that price. >> look where the big money

is. medicare, medicaid, social security. and it doesn't get much less popular from there. the fact is, a great way to make enemies. if all they have is darryl isa, they are giving out subpoenas, it's going to look like the party of no is becoming the party of destruction. >> what do you think of isa as a national candidate? >> i like darryl isa personally. >> do you think he has national potential? >> the talking car alarm, that's his voice, by the way? >> what was your question again? >> what are you talking about? >> stand away from the car. that's his voice. most famous voice in america. >> is this a serious question. what do you think about his performance and integrity? >> he's a man of integrity as far as i can tell. however -- if you want to send out subpoenas, you can do a lot

of damage. [ inaudible ] >> what are the republicans is he's not a national figure and you can't put him on the ticket because you aren't going to carry california and that's where he's from. >> and clarence's point, i don't know if they will take over one or two houses yet. but the american people are saying we want the gop to be the party of stop. it's the bulk of the american people. it's the independents that are on. >> independents are part of the status quo. they don't necessarily want you to stop a popular program. >> the liberals have over reached the american people are saying stop. > correct. >> at some point, stuff is not enough. at some point they're going to have to say what their agenda is. it will be exposed as a big lie because they aren't going to cut the deficit anymore than

the democrats. >> what are the democrats going to run on? >> the rich in trouble is the war budget and the defense budget. that's where you'll get a coalition of people that say stop the spending for these two wars. do we need all these? >> you think gates is experiencing that enlightenment? he wants to cut the size of the military. >> the commander in europe says we have too many bases over here. exit question, after november will there be a friendly merger between the incoming gop freshman, he thinks it's going to be hysteria. or will it be a hostile takeover? pat buchanan. >> there's going to be a friendly civil war inside the republican caucus. >> i don't know how you can have a friendly civil war. i call it a -- i think it will be a shotgun marriage. i will add that the antiwar party that pat was just talking about is not going to be enough

to cut off funding for either war. >> defense budget has grown a lot slower and less relative to social spending in the united states, but to answer your question, i think that the incoming gop freshman, a lot of them are going to have that tea party influence. a lot of the people signed on to the pledge are new names, but i think you will have the old gop establishment trying to throw the brakes on it and much to their shame. >> what is your intuition? what are you going to put in your chicago column? >> i do write a column, john. and a blog as well. i welcome you to it. >> i think you have a column on this subject. >> i forgot what the original question was. >> are the incoming democrats going to have a friendly takeover? >> gop, i see more peace between democrats than republicans. i don't think it's going to be a smooth merger at all because you have a strong group of tea party folks who are going to want to flex their elbows and they always do that in t

issue three, democrats dream ticket in 2012? rumors are put forth that the secretary of state, hillary clinton, might replace vice president joe biden on a 2012 obama, clinton demot does hilla about that rumor? >> i have absolutely no interest and no reason for doing anything other than just dismissing these stories and moving on. because we have no time. we have so much to do and i think both of us are very happy doing what we're doing. >> what's the likelihood of the takeover? >> they pretty much said it this week. if she wants to be president, she would be better staying secretary of state because she doesn't have to own the whole obama agenda and she has a good shot at being named the replacement for gates at the defense department when he

steps down sometime next year. >> how can the democrats be certain about maintaining the presidency? >> they have to invigorate the ticket, john. she brings what? she brings women? >> she brings white folks. she brings the folks in pennsylvania and ohio and west virginia, kentucky that voted against obama. but here's the thing. it is too ideal not to be on the table if obama is in trouble. >> there is zero chance this is going to happen for two reasons. one, no president likes to admit they made a huge mistake in selecting a vice president, but number two, hillary clinton is not going for second banana again. she was second banana under her husband and under barack obama. she's not doing it again. she's going for top job or bust in 2012. >> she'll will young enough to do it. what is she? 60? >> she's 64. >> she could do it.

>> you were thinking 2016. i'm saying she is going to run in 2012. >> i don't think it will be necessary for obama to make that move. i don't think it's on the table right now. anything is possible in the future. but she is better off staying. >> joe biden is doing a good job. he's not a mistake. >> we'll be right back. gecko: are you ready for your talk, sir? boss: just going over how geico helps people save in even more ways...

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i really didn't see it coming. i didn't realize i was drifting into the other lane. [ kim ] i was literally falling asleep at the wheel. it got my attention, telling me that i wasn't paying attention. i had no idea the guy in front of me had stopped short. but my car did. my car did. thankfully, my mercedes did. [ male announcer ] a world you can't predict... demands a car you can trust. the e-class. see your authorized mercedes-benz dealer for exceptional offers through mercedes-benz financial. ♪ predictions, pat. >> real deadlock of democracy coming up in the spring. not simply the war inside the gop. republicans aren't going to come back and cut their own social programs. i don't know where the cuts are going to come and i think everybody is going to be in total gridlock. >> is that the prediction? >> yes. >> okay, eleanor. >> democrat joe mansion is going to pull ahead in west virginia on the strength of the

republicans creating an ad sending out a casting call for hicks to play west virginia residents. misselling john deere tractors and the ad in philadelphia. >> okay, on election day, three states will be holding referendum on obama care. the voters in all three states will overwelmingly vote to opt out of key provisions of obama care. just like missouri did by 71%. >> another election coming after the midterms and i predict that neither barack obama or richard daly will endorse in this mayoral race coming up because it is so dismissive. >> brace for impact. i predict that hillary clinton will become president of the united states. bye bye. >> when? ? [ music throughout ] [ male announcer ] looking for a complete picture of your money?

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