from washington, "the mclaughlin group," the american original. for over two decades the sharpest minds, best sources, hardest talk. issue one, squeaker man! >> my goodness, what a squeaker! but it sure is nice to have a win, i'll tell 'ya! this is a campaign night where america wins. we're going to change the white house and get america back on track! >> mitt romney won the iowa caucus on tuesday. former pennsylvania senator rick santorum came in second.

it was a photo finish. romney beat santorum by 8 votes, or 1/100 of 1% of votes cast. but a win is a win. santorum thanked the caucus- goers and saluted them after the votes were counted tuesday night. >> game on! [cheering] you, you, by standing up and not compromising, by standing up and being bold and leading, leading with that burden and responsibility you have to be first, you have taken the first step of taking back this country! [cheering] >> question, what makes iowa a surprising win for romney? pat buchanan. >> originally romney appeared to write a off because he was fareful of the social conservatives who killed him in 2008 and given the victory to

the fellow from our -- arkansas. and i think what happened here was romney decided to go back in and he did well, and he won iowa, and if you win the first two states there's no candidate who has won both iowa and new hampshire who has gone on to lose the nomination. secondly, his challenger is rick santorum, who ran a great campaign in iowa and who came up to tie him, but santorum does not appear to be a candidate right now who can go the distance. and besides, romney has a victory but his opposition is still divided four or five ways. >> is buchanan missing the main point that the reason it's a big surprise is romney didn't spend very much time there? didn't spend that much money either. >> ran there four years ago, and as the obama campaign pointed out, he emerged with six fewer votes than four years ago, so he maintained his base, if you will, in iowa, and four years ago there were a number

of so-called moderates in the rate, giuliani was in, mccain, and huck. bee won because he stood out as the social conservative with the common touch. this time around, romney was the only really so-called moderate in the field, and the rest of the vote is divided among the conservatives. and so all romney has to worry about new hampshire, he doesn't want santorum to do too well because that might pose a threat, and as long as gingrich stays in and perry stayed in, they'll divide the vote and the 25% man can emerge with a plurality win. >> okay. with the new hampshire primary looming this 53 years of age, wife karen, sever children, four sons, three daughters. youngest daughter, bella, has edwards syndrome, a deadly genetic illness. another son, gabriel, was born

prematurely and died two hours after birth. roman catholic, income, over $1.3 million over a 20-month period ending august 2011. penn state university b. a., and law school jd. university of pittsburgh mba. u.s. house of representatives four years, two terms, '90 to '94. u.s. stockmarkets 12 years, two successive terms, 1994 to 2006. fox news channel contributer, four years, 2007 to ma2011. question, santorum is roman catholic. given two-thirds of iowa voters are christian, why didn't santorum easily defeat romney? i ask you, james. >> hi wasn't the only christian in the race. most are evangelicals. you had rick perry who had transformed himself into being

the texas job creator, into being a social conservative. michele bachmann went for the social conservative vote. even newt gingrich talked about his conversion to catholicism so it's split among the candidates. >> here's santorum on the issues. >> climate change. "a beautifully concocted scheme. just an excuse for more government control of your life." gay marriage. wants a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage, saying "it destroys the basic unit of our society because it condones waiver that is antithetical to strong, healthy families." stem cell research. opposees such research, thus breaking with then-president gw bush. partial-birth abortion, led the charge in congress against partial-birth abortion. question, will santorum win new

hampshire? mort? >> i don't believe he'll win new hampshire. i don't think he'll come close in new hampshire. i think it will be a huge win for romney. but i want to go back to iowa, because the big part of what happened in iowa was that gingrich was -- doing extremely well in iowa, he was attacked by the super pack of romney, and he was destroyed by the negative ads that cam out of that, and his vote in a sense went partly to mitt romney and partly to santorum, which is why santorum did as well as he did. i don't think me as the staying power our caring power to do well either in new hampshire or south carolina. >> santorum's problem is he came into new hampshire at four or five percent and romney at 45. he has an enormous way to go. i don't think he'll make it. and quite frankly, the conservatives are a little divided not only in new hampshire, ron paul in there as well, but they are in south carolina, john, where that comes next. romney right now has a 2-1 lead

in south carolina because the conservatives are all divided there as well. if they don't get behind a single conservative candidate, and very, very soon, this thing is over. >> santorum may have already blown it in new hampshire because he's speaking to an student audience and got into an argument about gay marriage. it's legal in new hampshire and popular in new hampshire and wasn't forced them on some elites. so new hampshire is not -- santorum's kind of state. but there is a lot -- there are some [everyone talking at once] >> don't have to win -- perform the expectations, jon huntsman could po off some independents. then they go on the south carolina and see what happens. >> so you just going to say -- new hampshire doesn't matter? >> it matters a lot because if romney performs below

expectations, then that can maybe give rick santorum a chance. >> the public republican party is alive and well because they're probably going to stomp out santorum, as well as the others, and mitt romney is going to run as the inevitable mainstream candidate, thanks to -- [everyone talking at once] >> perry will be back in south carolina, newt will be there, ron paul will get a -- [everyone talking at once] >> ron paul will never drop out. so ron paul -- >> he'll stay in there. >> and there will be another conservative. >> you'll have newt in there and perry in there, draining the votes that potentially could go to santorum. >> whatever their convictions, the republicans who believe in the electability of their candidate, dominantly support romney and for good reason on because he's the most electable of any other republican. >> why didn't perry do better when he spent $5.5 million on

negative ads? >> looks like he was out of the job. >> oops is my answer. oops. >> perry is -- [everyone talking at once] >> in office in texas the. >> he's the only one who had this kind of administrative experience. >> of all the governs i've met, he has the best understanding of small business and how it works in the economy. that's not the issue. the issue is how could you perform on the national stage? he was clearly unprepared and inadequate for the national stage. >> he was -- [everyone talking at once] have that kind. >> he didn't have that time! >> remember the name of the epa -- >> even before that he wasn't able to carry the debate. you think they could recover? >> no, i don't. [everyone talking at once] >> get more than 50% finish that. >> he's a man of pre-fabricated sandbags and if you go beyond that, he can't handle himself well. >> maybe he should. >> noticeable. >> okay. primaries nunununununununununun

carolina, florida. february, nevada, colorado, minnesota, arizona, michigan. which one of these january primaries is the most likely to deliver some kind of upset? >> i think south carolina is the one because right now romney seems to be leading which would be a tremendous upset. that's a state the conservative is supposed to win. >> florida will also be significant in that believe january 31st, and they moved up earlier in the calendar. and the republicans for the first time in these early primaries have proportional delegates so that whoever runs and wins gets the delegates. >> long primary. >> that's the stretch it out somewhat. >> is santorum pull it off? >> here's the thing. he's got to win south carolina, i think, or somebody has to beat romney there. if romney wins south carolina, he's ahead in florida. what exactly stops him, john? i think romney could win

florida, even if lost south carolina. >> who is his biggest threat in south carolina? >> probably santorum, who is surging because newt is falling. i think ron paul will get his usual 15 to 20%. >> what about perry? >> perry will be there but i don't think he'll get more than 12 or 15%. >> you know the population is made of south carolina? >> yes, heavily of evangelical christians. >> that's right. >> but there is a powerful republican party there, built up over the years, and i think that party will move behind mitt romney. the governor is behind him. >> perry's firewall, south carolina something, that why he is staying in the race? [everyone talking at once] >> i don't know that. >> you give perry more credit? >> i think he didn't want to leave the way he would have have had to left. and he's a man of real political achievement and accomplishments. and i think he just didn't want

to leave -- [everyone talking at once] >> it's all right he deserves it. he's been very effective [everyone talking at once] >> also may be recognition that mitt romney is still the most likely nominee, and if he stays in the race, he helps romney. insures his future. >> exit question -- santorum surge in iowa. will that surge plus his strong polling in south carolina mean that he will win in south carolina, pat buchanan? >> i think as of now, romney will win new hampshire, south carolina, florida, and i think this is just about over. >> you do? >> uh-huh. >> as clean as that? >> yes. santorum isn't as pure as he presents himself. he's about to get a barrage of negative advertising and supposed to boy for us dealing with special interests in -- and so -- i think he's peaked. >> five seconds here. >> i think romney will continue to roll. >> i agree. i think romney will continue to roll and i agree with what pat

satisfied. by the time we get through florida this, race will be over. >> romney is on a roll. when we come back, obama report card. issue two, obama report

card. >> i promise to do everything i can, every day, every minute, every second to make sure this is a country where hard work and responsibility mean something, and everybody can get ahead. not just those at the very top, not just those who know how to work the system, but everybody. >> trust me. with the economy. that was the message president obama brought to ohio this week. but what do the experts have to say about that? 36 selected economists from the

nation's esteemed banks, financial firms, independent consultants, and academic institutions have rated the president's performance on the economy. here's the breakout. one, half of the group rated him fair, 18 out of 36. two, a third of the group rated him poor, 13 of 36. three, 15% of the group rated him good, 5 out of 36. four, not a single one of the 36 economists gave mr. obama a rating of excellent. which republican candidate would do the best job on the economy? 24 of the 36 economists, a two- thirds consensus, say the best candidate to handle the economy is -- mitt romney. mr. romney certainly knows how to save.

here he is saving words. >> when he was on the today show after being nag rated, he said if i can't get this economy to turn around in three years, i will be looking at a one-term proposition. well, here to collect! [applause] >> present a fair rap on the part of romney? >> yes, it is. i think the president has made two huge mistakes amount the very beginning of his presidency, one is the stimulus program was not only an inadequate but half went to the states and municipalities, which is call the public service unions. and did not do what had had to do, which is become a multiplier in economic dynamism. secondly, he voted months and months and months to the health care program, which amongst other things created a tremendous amount of what they call regulatory insecurity. and stanford and the university of california berkeley did a survey of this and found as much as two million jobs were not created because of regulatory insecurity. and that's a serious study. and that's exactly what so many people in the business

community have come to the conclusion about obama's presidency. and that's one of my big problems with -- >> any different on the romney as president of the united states? >> absolutely. romney is an extraordinarily talented businessman. he understands the economy. he understands how it works. which is one of the great problems of this administration. they may have theories, they don't understand how it works. >> is romney also -- >> and i was a supporter of obama. >> is romney a deal maker? >> he certainly is. >> an accomplished deal maker in. >> very accomplished! >> is had what the american people really want? >> party of it. he to make compromises with the democratic legislature in massachusetts to get things going. they know he can work. >> i don't like this romney commercial going on here. >> to my left, i'm -- i'm amazed. [everyone talking at once] that you've let him go on. >> i want to hear what mort has to stay. >> i read -- >> you said -- [everyone talking at once] excuse me!

i read the survey that you just referred to, the ap survey, and the economists that responded said they were not familiar with romney's plans for the economy. they were basing it on the fact he was with capitol. the ability to shut down a lot of business and have a success here and there that made him a millionaire-billionaire is not necessarily going to vault him to the presidency. and -- [everyone talking at once] >> hold on! led her finish. >> i want to say something with this president did this week, and that is to do two recess appointments. he challenged the congress and he appointed richard cordray to the consumer protection bureau. and this is a welcome act -- action because what has been going on here is basically the washington equivalent of jury nullification, you have a congress that won't pass anything, even when they support it. no jobs programs. they won't confirm anybody and

trying to repeal -- [everyone talking at once] that was duelly and signed inulol by the. >> this is the worst economy in modern history. >> there are over 200,000 jobs created in the last month, and [everyone talking at once] premature to say all is well. but it looks like we're on the right track. >> listen, this is the worst economy in modern history. what the president chose to do -- rather than move to the center, he doubled down on the exact same policies. and he -- you may be impressed by the fact the unemployment is down to 8 1/2%. that's only because the workforce collapsed. it would be 11% which is worst easily the worst numbers ever. >> the difference between romney and obama is very simple. obama and pelosi and reid bet the entire farm basically on most of it on the public

sector, hauling us out of the recession. romney and the republican party will do as reagan did, bet on the private tech so almost 100%. that's the fundamental difference between the two parties. >> the private sector got us into the mess. remember that? we also got -- we have to be restrained -- [everyone talking at once] >> you got to have -- [everyone talking at once] >> three years. >> he has saved us what was near disaster. [everyone talking at once] >> excuse me! romney is 59-point plan is basically just going back to the same policies that were in place when president bush was in office. [everyone talking at once] >> he failed! >> he failed the policy. >> this is -- [everyone talking at once] >> let me get to this. [everyone talking at once] >> this is a stubborn, near

depression that we're in. >> wrong policies! >> the president isn't to be faulted not making clear how -- >> hold on, hold on! the one thing that romney called for is calling for china to get rid of the currency manipulation in america's recovery. isn't that a piece of singular -- who else is talking about china in that sense? >> santorum. >> a lot of people are, because china they believe has manipulated currency to make their e ports -- >> how do you fight that impact? >> well, we are -- there are a lot of things we can do. >> they devalued their currency, took it down by 50%. >> yes. >> and then they flooded us the damage has been done to america. >> what about romney's first point of correction of the situation is to call on china

-- they've been trying for years, bringing it down at 5% a year it. won't do it! [everyone talking at once] >> they're not -- knock -- [everyone talking at once] >> we'll be right back with predictions.

forced prediction, yes or no. the unemployment rate will be under 8 and by the end year. >> under. >> under 8.5. >> closer to 9. >> above 9. >> above 9? >> yes. >> 8.4. bye-bye!

thanks, mom. who are you calling "mom"?