from washington, "the mclaughlin group," the american original. for over two decades, the sharpest minds, issue one, supreme guessing game! the affordable care act, obama care, went before the supreme court this week for an unprecedented six hours of argument, over three days. the most controversial aspect of the law is known as individual mandate. it obliges, commands if you

will, all u.s. citizens to buy health insurance. if he or she decides not to do so, he or she pays a fine, approximately $1,000 per year. the high court justices were troubled. associate justice amount kennedy asked the solicitor general, defending obama care, why the insurance net is being thrown so wide. >> it changes the relationship of the federal government to the individual in a very fundamental way. >>pushups, could be mandated next. >> everybody has to exercise because there's no doubt that lack of exercise causes illness and legal for the court to remove one key element of the law, but keep

the rest of it. justin ginsburg responds. >> why should we say, it's a choice between a wrecking operation, which is what you are going, or a salvage job. >> question, is the goal of controlling heal care costs sufficient to grant congress the power to force people to enter a market they don't want to enter? pat? >> the question, is to what you're talking to, is it constitutional to force people to buy a product they don't want to buy? can the federal government do that even for some noble purpose? and that's the question here. and the individual mandate, which is that, was mocked and ridiculed by five of the justices, certainly in kennedy you saw in -- they virtually depansed the solicitor general in the chambers, and what i think is going to come out of this, the key is kennedy, still. i think the four conservatives

will knock this down, and will kennedy go with the fifth vote? what happens after that? will they get briar? i do think this -- i think that is going to happen. the question that follows is, is the supreme court then -- does the whole wall go down? the supreme court automatically becomes an issue in this election, and i'm not sure which way that goes or which way the defeat of this whole bill goes, who it helps and who it hurts. the central opinion rights now is the conservatives it's a win- win for them. i'm not altogether sure that it is. >> eleanor? >> well, the extent to which the debate becomes about health insurance versus health care i think helps the opposition. and i think that the government's lawyer was nervous, he didn't seem fully prepared, amazingly so, and i don't think he fully confronted the questions that he proposed before him. but the answer to the how far can this go, is that insurance

or health care is a unique market. and i don't -- rare is the individual who will not at some point in his or her life encounters the health care system. so therefore seems to me semantics, whether you're going to confront this market before it actually goes into effect, or that you can somehow preclude it at this point. they should have called the mandate a personal responsibility provision, because really what it's about is not allowing people to use the emergency room as their point of contact with health care, not pay the bills, and make the rest of us pick up the costs. >> i don't agree that's what it's about. it's really about getting healthy young people who either want no health insurance or very high deductible health insurance, getting them into the pool bus this is the only way to -- >> how much would that cost? >> well. >> i see $4,000 as a figure. >> and i think for a lot of young people -- >> they get about $800 on average in services. >> yes. so -- >> so they're paying for those

-- preexisting conditions, they're paying for contraception, they're paying for other medical needs. >> that's why health insurance companies were the first ones to propose the individual mandate rate officer obama got elected. >> that's how insurance works? insuring goes things that could happen to you, and so you -- you're talking about redistribution. >> the insurance [overlapping speakers] optional insurance. this is mandatory insurance. >> john -- [overlapping speakers] >> that's the strongest argument, you've got the wrong -- already paying for medicare. and -- i'm not -- not sure that's welfare. >> necessary that not the precedents. it's constitutional, isn't it? so what is the difference between paying for your elderly care or health care right now? >> it's a difference of form, not substance. by the way, the early days of this country, men were required to buy a musket. under federal law. general washington -- >> my guess is it was state

law, not federal law. >> raise a militia, yeah. >> get ago amendment to the constitution. >> precedence here for forcing you to buy something. >> good point here, and this -- if the individual mandate goes down at the federal level, does it go down in romney care and massachusetts too, if it violates the constitution? this individual mandate? >> i see -- different in romney care. it's a complicated question and i don't excuse it the way mitt romney does. but they do get exempt. >> more public opinion. i show here obama care hovers around 75%, although some provisions are popular. does this suggest obama miscalculated in pressing for wholesale reform? >> no, you can't reform the health care market by tweaking this and not tweaking that. because insurance companies are not going to excuse people with preexisting conditions or promise not to cut you off unless they get -- >> incremental health reform. what's wrong with -- >> which increment would do

you? [overlapping speakers] >> if mandate goes down, i believe the exchanges which are market exchanges, regional and in stays, they will be competitive. the kaiser foundation did a survey which shows the mandate only affects six or seven percent of the population, go 18 million people! and -- excuse me [overlapping speakers] and the majorities of those people would get a federal subsidy. so i think obama care survivors with or without the mandate. >> not if you get romney in the white house. >> i don't think they'll pass -- they won't be the votes on capitol hill to give president romney anything he could sign. >> was obama care at the major factor in the defeat -- >> yes. >> in 2010 elections. >> no doubt about it. >> when the republicans swept in this. this was repudiation of obama care. >> absolutely. >> tea party was built by obama care. and you saw that the democrats

who lost a lot on the -- lot of them -- >> lost the house. >> who voted for it, and so obama care was the number-one thing. now -- [overlapping speakers] >> what impact will it have on the presidential race if the supreme court tosses out obama care? constitutional? >> first it will make the supreme court a major issue in the campaign. secondly, it will moralize and the conservatives, but the people defeated the democrats in the others if this whole thing goes down, and obama -- they can say look, it could energize those folks as well. my guess is the president, however, does not want to campaign in the fall on an issue obama care per se, that is as unpopular as you say, but some of the aspects of it like preexisting conditions -- >> look like obama will have -- >> the presidential mandate. >> the republicans will say the guide -- he's a constitutional lawyer who acted unconstitutionally! >> why did he do it? >> because it was the big centerpiece of obama's

administration. >> why did he think he could make -- [overlapping speakers] >> thought it was the social security of this generation. >> if you called it a tax, everybody is taxed. if you call that a tax, it would be perfectly constitutional. try to find something politically palatable, and frankly, before the right captured all the dialogue, virtually ever constitutional expert expected this would be upheld and that the law which is brought on behalf of 26 red states, and the national federation of independent business, was so politicized, it looked -- >> is it a lose-lose proposition, meaning if the upholds it and it invalidates the opposition, charges that obama overreaches his authority, and if the court throws it out still looks like he will overreach his authority. >> the court throws it out, he'll have sympathy from people who suddenly -- college age kids like me who find health care coverage is lost. preexisting conditions.

most of obama care is popular, actually. go down issue by issue. the kaiser polls and others show this. so if you take away the mandate, it's not really clear like pat says, obama necessarily going to lose [overlapping speakers] >> if they -- if he wins, it's going to recharge the opposition against it. if he reject it, he will go to -- >> obama doesn't mind debate engine favor of obama care. if that's going to be an issue, he does not. >> really? >> it's a signature issue, john. how could he run away from it? >> run away from it? >> when we come back, russian roulette! > issue two, russian

roulette! [audio not understandable]

>> it was intended to be a private exchange between outgoing russian president dmitry medvedev and president obama. but thanks to an open microphone, it was broadcast to the world. a little a nuclear security summit last monday in seoul, korea, mr. obama reveals his willingness to cut a deal with russia on the placement of anti- missile defenses in eastern europe, after this year's november election. the missile defense system was first proposed by president george w. bush to protect european cities against iranian missiles. it was vigorously opposed by russia. so the first systems are currently scheduled for deployment in romania in 2014. and in poland in 2018. mr. obama says he will have more flexibility after the election this year. republicans were quick to seize on the flexibility comment. >> this is a president who is

telling us one thing and doing something else and is planning on doing something even more frightening. >> governor romney went on to characterize russia as america's number-one geopolitical rival. a charge that threw re row joinedder from medvedev that, this is 2012, not the 1970s, the height of the cold war. congressional republicans are calling for a "urgent explanation" of mr. obama's comment to mr. medvedev. here's the exchange again. after my election i have more flexibility. >> question, mr. obama's -- or reset of u.s.-russian relations is his foreign policy priority. how much further is he likely to take that, that reset, in a

second term? >> this is a gaff of the really the first order, john. he has confirmed the suspicions of every conservative and traditionalist and nee con in america that after his election, all this nonsense i've been supporting in my first term goes out the window and we've got the new and the -- obama de has scared the daylights out of it. >> wait a minute! wait a minute! [overlapping speakers] >> the missile system is gone. >> who is to say he means that? is it even interpreted by medvedev as to be literal? >> don't they allow -- [overlapping speakers] >> diplomatic. >> tell him to cut me some slack until i get elected, and then we can do business. >> so this is my price, you've got to be good to me on this, and cut me some slack? >> yes, i'll pay you back later on! >> it's a gaff to -- an issue,

i agree. but frankly, i'm relieved that he has this kinds of personal relationship with a major russian leader who can pass a message and say basically what is true n a overheated political campaign, this is not an issue he's going to talk become he wants to protect the star treaty and reduction of nuclear weapons that he has negotiated, and the russians are threatening to scuttle it because they think the nato missiles are aimed at them. that is something that is imminently workable outable, and he will do that after he a elected. this is negotiations. >> this is flexibility, some kind of grand bog and we can only go into after i'm assured of re-election, because it's too dangerous now. >> every second-term president wants to do some big thing where he is bringing about world peace and whether it's bill clinton's weird efforts or -- >> what is the answer? >> it means obama would like to have a grand bargain, would like to have some foreign policy legacies like the guys who try to make peace in the

middle east their foreign policy. >> maybe he doesn't know where flexibility would lead. >> he knows where it would lead. >> what is the grand bargain? >> let me give you one. the nee conservatives are pushing for war on iran. what he is basically saying is, we can do business on a lot of things, if obama's reelected i bet there would be no war on iran. however, if mitt romney is elected, interest could be one! [overlapping speakers] >> yeah, if that's mitt romney's campaign slogan. he's in trouble. >> no nuclear weapons. >> how damage something -- how damage something for examplability, the use of that word, to barack obama's re- election? >> with the gaff? >> yes,. >> you know, this is not going to -- win him any support among those who don't already support him. the paranoid wing says, there, you see? he'll give away the store! i don't want -- i'm not quoting directly. but -- >> the non-paranoid wing is not

going to be upset by this? >> no. >> and become paranoid. >> as being pragmatic, frankly. trying to deal -- diplomacy is five sided chess. give yourself as much -- as you can [overlapping speakers] >> held in confidence, right? >> already got the reset in place with russia. so whether -- why is he -- >> not in place, it's in motion! >> what else does he need legs inability on? we already know on gay marriage le evolve -- >> we don't know what policy -- obama has up his sleeve. >> i think domestic policy. reminds us -- [overlapping speakers] >> issue the pope and the infidel. pope benedict xvi visited cuba for three days early this week. the pontiff met with cuba's

formal reader, fidel castro, a former catholic altar boy. the conversation was about books and how catholic liturgy changed over the years. the pontiff also urged cuba's current leader, if i debtle dell's brother raoul castro, to allow for greater freedoms for the people and catholic church. on wednesday the pontiff held an open air mass in central havana that attracted 300,000 people, including some 800 cuban americans largely from miami on a "pilgrimage to see the pope." prior to arriving in cuba, the pope critiqued the castro brothers' harkesist economy, saying it contribution does not correspond to reality." pope benedict also took a swipe at the u.s. for its 50-year-old embargo against cuba, saying the situation in cuba is "worsened when restrictive

economic measures imposed from outside the country unfairly question, pope benedict's visit comes 14 years after the first fame us papal visit to cuba in 1998 by pope john paul ii. did pope benedict measure up to pope john paul? tim? >> i know a lot of people who are upset with john paul's visit in 1998, that he didn't come sort of rattling the saber at cuba in the way he had gone into eastern europe, when go behind the iron curtain and try to bring down the soviet empire. >> but this pope did. >> well, he fired as much ammo at the united states as he did as fidel castro there, and there's stronger critiques i could think of that would be very apt than to say this does not so respond with reality. it's an evil dogma that the communist treat and does not respect human liberty, and whatever the u.s. policy should be towards there, there needs to be a very firm message, and

i hope that the holy father -- >> did you see the exchange 15 the pope and -- fidel castro and they -- reconstructing what happened to the liturgy over the course of the -- >> i think the pope is a diplomat and handled this very well. and i would just hope that his words about the embargo might be taken seriously by american catholics and see some of the american priests go to the pulpit and try to energize people on this issue instead of rag ago way on the contraceptive issues. >> pope paul lifting of the u.s. embargo on cuba, what did you think of that? >> well, earlier pope was in favor of that as well, but the difference between this visit and earlier one is -- especially in regard to the pope's support to the movement over in eastern europe, is that the people in eastern europe were really poised and trying very hard to overthrow the soviet domination. it's not the sayings same in

cuba. fidel is moving from the scene now and they're in transition -- [overlapping speakers] >> the question i want to ask, do you think that lifting of the embargo is going to go over well with cuba an americans? the call made by the pope. do you think marco rubio were rejoice, a catholic and apparently a fine catholic, will rejoice hearing that when marco is -- into no, they're not! and if you're running in florida, you should probably be hard-line on this. but let me say this. the soviet empire is over. the point is i think we ought to begin to engage with the =+v.p1ju by step, the way we did before. >> very with been doing that! >> no, it's been tomorrower and we ought to engage in -- in other words, the regime separate the regime from the people. >> you think it was indicating that when he was talk to the head of russia? he will be flexible?

lift the embargo? >> i think he's talking about missiles there. >> we move from missiles to the embargo. >> you're right. >> we'll be right back -- it's another second term issue. >> we'll with predictions.

prediction, pat? >> obama care individual mandate goes gown but it's a split decision, the other parts are saved. >> eleanor. >> the palin affect raises the bar for my woman considered to

be mitt romney's running mate. >> interesting. tim? >> if mitt romney leading in the polls, he will pick rubio as running mate, otherwise go with someone safer. >> clarence? >> scott walker recall will be viewed as a signpost in a turning point in favor of the obama administration nationally. >> the current shiite friction will erupt into open con flick in egypt and other arab springers before fall of this year, 2012. bye-bye! [ female announcer ] what would you call an ordinary breakfast pastry

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