bob i'm bob schieffer on "face the nation," new american airstrikes in iraq overnight as president ponders a new strategy to combat the isis terror. >> our goal is to act with urgency but also to make sure that we're doing it right. and we're going to achieve our goal. we are going to degrade and ultimately defeat isis. >> schieffer: what exactly is the next step with congress back in session this week demand for a strategy and action will grow. we'll hear from florida republican senator marco rubio and top democrat on house intelligence committee dutch ruppersberger. former secretary of state henry kissinger has his own idea how to deal with isis. we'll have analysis on that and

more with peg knee noonan of the "wall street journal." david ignatious. "washington post" and peter baker of the "new york times." plus new results from our cbs news "new york times" battlegroundra tcker on how the 2014 election is shaping up. 60 years of news because this is "face the nation." captioning sponsored by cbs good morning, again. the united states has expanded its assault against the terror group isis in iraq overnight launching new airstrikes in the area around the hadetha dam. last month u.s. airstrikes exceeded in pushing isis back from the mosul dam area both are considered key assets in the region. secretary of defense hagel made the announcement while traveling today overseas. >> i think the strikes that united states took are very much

in line with what president obama said were the guiding principles of military action in iraq. >> we begin this morning with florida senator marco rubio who sits on both the intelligence and foreign relations committee. he joins us from miami this morning and senator the president said on nbc this morning that he is going to make a speech wednesday to the american people and outline to them the strategy, he says the next phase as he put it is going to be going on the offensive against isil, his quote this is not going to be an announcement on u.s. ground troops but similar to the kind of counter terrorism campaigns we have carried out in the past. so i guess my question to you is, what do you want to hear from the president? >> i want to hear what she have said months ago weeks ago. that is first clearly explain to the american people what our national security interests are in the region especially what is

happening in syria and iraq, accurately describe to the american people the risk that isil poses. this is a group that made very clear they want to establish an islamic group in the middle east and drive us from the region. the way they're going to drive us from the region through terrorists acts ip cluing here in the homeland describe us to the unique capabilities this group has which includes a ton of funds weapons, but also foreign fighters including foreign fighters with passports that allow them easy access to the united states. second, needs to clearly outline what here going to do, i hope that includes sustained air campaign targeting the supply lines, their command and control structures i hope that will include their central command and control structures within sear why and hope announcing that he's going to target the refineries that they now control in syria. hey're using to fund their tricks. >> you are ready for him to order airstrikes in to syria? >> absolutely.

i think it's critical that we do that. serious about defeating isil you have to go after where they're head quartered. what is important to understand that they are generating revenue in syria with former assad refine lease that they now control and their generating revenues. but all of their supplies, command and control are being operated from there. you cannot defeat isil unless you hit them in those parts where syrian government not present. >> this is a bit of a change for you, is it not, you are a little reluctant going in to syria if i recall? >> if you recall, at that time what the president charactered as sim balance lick military action against assad government. the best way to topple assad was to arm quip, train capacitate moderate rebel elements within syria. that was a better approach. this is targeting isil a group that imposes immediate danger to the united states if we are

serious about defeating them we must strike them in syria and iraq. previous debate was what to do with assad, the best way to topple assad was not through airstrikes but through quip equipping moderate rebel elements. >> do you have some new intelligence information here because if i understood the president correctly this morning, he was not sure that they pose a threat now to the u.s. homeland but they could g.o.p. such a threat to you do you think they pose a threat to the homeland now? >> i believe they d. i'll tell you why. first and foremost because they are replete with both european and american fighters and more europeans that have passports that allow them immediate access to the united states. second because i think it's important not to over estimate the amount of intelligence that we have on these groups and about these groups they have learned a lot about our intelligence gathering capabilities through series of disclosures and other sorts of things they have become increasingly capable of evading detection.

to sit back say we don't think they pose a threat because we haven't seen one would be short sighted. fact. matter is this group has among their ranks hundreds if not thousands of people with capability of entering the united states quickly and easily and we should not take that lightly. >> you know, senator as president went through this evolving explanation of our strategy famously said last a strategy. then he seemed to be kind of inching along here until he now says we have to really ramp it up and go after them. do you think that he should have shown more of a sense of urgency? he has been saying we have to do this very deliberately but do you think she have shown more urgency in reacting to this? >> i'm going to say something i don't say lightly. i know there is always differences between republicans and democrats i try to certainly not allow that to filter in to foreign policy, something that i hope will continue to be bipartisan i believe this

president has committed presidential malpractice in foreign policy. exhibit a is what he's done with the middle east. he ran for office under the notion that our national interests in the middle east were to disengage as quickly as possible and disentangle from the region that has been chaotic, led toe series of policy pronouncements and words that he is saying whether isil was the jv, setting red lines that weren't in force all those things ha of been counter productive i think created some generational and reputational damage to the united states of great significance. this continues this week you have mixed messages coming from the administration, they don't have a strategy, are we going to contain them more defeat them, the vice president says we're going to fall to the gates of hell the president is saying that we're going to simply contain them. these -- our allies are watching this as well, they're concluding that the american foreign policy is in the hands of someone who does not know what he's doing. >> schieffer: do you see also this changing outlook of those

in your cincinnati we had rand paul who seemed very reluctant about his response but then last week he said if i had been president obama's shoes i would have acted more decisively and strongly. would have called congress back to session even during recess, we should have asked for authorization for hill terry action, he would know no have received it. you also have ted cruz this morning saying, he should have reacted strongly and hit them hard in the very beginning. are republicans also kind of changing their outlook over this past week or so pgh (by mr. 123 ) i hope so. reality in the real world ooms has way of doing that my biggest problem with this motion that we should disengage has never worked. in fact deeply counter productive. at the root that have argument by the way is the believe that all these problems are created because of american engagement. since my earliest days in the senate and certainly with regards to isil for weeks now hive been arguing if we don't

deal with them now have to deal with them later anyways it's going to be harder to deal with them fact that there are more voices echoing that, i think it's a positive development and certainly example of how reality has set in when it becomes to foreign policy and our national security. >> let me ask you a little with it about the president's statements over the week on immigration. he was planning on taking executive action on immigration reform because he said congress wouldn't d then we were told yesterday that the president has decided in fact he will put off any executive action until after the election. white house aides who were briefing reporters made no bones about it they said they were doing this because democrats some of them in very tight senate races democratic candidates felt it was going to hurt their chances for re-election. the president says, it's not politics that is behind it but what do you -- what do you make of all this?

>> it's definitely politics. let me say this. i think that we have to deal immigration. we have a broken enforcement system on immigration. we have legal immigration system that outdated and needs to be modernized to win the global competition for talent we have millions of people living in this country illegal lehman owe have been here for a decade or longer we need to find responsible 'of incorporating them. last year we tried to do that through one size fits all comprehensive approach, it didn't work. we don't have the support for that. the only way we're going to be able to address it i believe she through sequence of bills that begins by proving to people that illegal immigration is under control, modernizing our system then dealing with those who are here illegally. if the president takes executive action he will make achieving that which won't be easy even harder. i'm disappointing he intends to do it anyway because what he's basically saying he doesn't want to be held accountable by the electorate for an action that is unpopular because the american

people don't want to do anything on immigration until they know that the border and illegal immigration system is secure. illegal immigration problem is under control. >> schieffer: i'll close with this question. you've been thinking obviously about whether to run for the republican nomination in 2016, are you anywhere close to making a decision on that? >> well, you know, i have to make decision in 2016 either way because i'm up for re-election in the senate for me not about the position where can i best advocate for 21st century reform 'general that allows us to usher in another american century. decision, can i best do that as senator or can i best do that as running and hopefully winning the presidency. that is a question i'll have more clarity on because i am promise you this, one place been i will not be able to do that from is a senate that is still run by harry reid that allows no votes on anything of substance or importance. >> schieffer: senator marco rubio, thank you so much. >> thank you. >> schieffer: joining us now for a different perspective pop

democrat on house intelligence committee maryland congressman dutch ruppersberger. marco rubio says president is guilty of presidential malpractice, how would you put it? >> absolutely not. let's talk about where we are. we have very serious threat with isis there's no question. we are the most powerful country in the world and when we have a threat we're going to take action. now what people don't realize is that people that i work with, and people intelligence, armed services committee we deal with the military and intelligence committee every day they are the strongest in the world. they are there advising the president and giving the president exactly what we need to do to protect americans and to stop this threat. now, i think the president mated a mistake when did he not come out as strong after we had an american's head cut off not one, but two. at that point we should have, i believe he should have stood up very strongly said, we're not going to take it, we're going to come after you and bring to you

justice. and i think the president realized he had to be stronger. the vice president who came out and said, we're going to follow you to the gates of hell, that e needed toear. we are doing that. as a result of that, the president and secretary of state and secretary of defense have organized bringing other countries involved because we in the united states we're the most powerful and people look to us for leadership, however we also can't be sheriff for the whole world, we have other issues we're dealing with, too. if in fact now that they know that we mean business, we have to of ha a strategy to take out isis and we're doing it right now. >> schieffer: well, so he's going to make a speech wednesday to the american people, what do you want to hear from him? >> what i want to hear to 'assure the american public and world that we're standing up, we're going to have strategy and we're not going to rest until we bring these people to justice and we stamp them out because there are threat to the united states, to americans to our allies to the world. but on the other hand it's easy

for sound byte to say we need to go in bomb syria if isis is there. we need to do what we need to do to take in the them out. we have to make sure that we have the intelligence, best defense against defense i believe that if we're going to take isis out you need to take out their leadership. want to kill a snake you cut its head off. i believe that is what we have to do find out where their leadership is going after them. >> schieffer: you heard marco rubio saying we need to go after the oil refineries in syria we need to go after these assets, these places that they're going to get revenue, are you willing to go that far? >> i'm willing to do what would need to do i don't want to tell isis what we're going to do before we do it. i think that is what concerns me to just say go in bomb them. we need to get results. like we have done in iraq and -- i mean in afghanistan and in pakistan. we have gob in very effectively took out leadership in that area. the problem that terrorism and al qaeda have grown a lot it

wilt be threat for years to come. that's why we need fob strong from intelligence perspective. and get the information and do what we need to do to protect americans. really, our number one priority to protect americans and homeland then to protect americans throughout the world. my opinion right now americans anywhere in the world are really at risk because of what's happening -- >> schieffer: you're with marco rubio that isis poses a threat to the homeland now? >> well, i'm dutch ruppersberger i'm going to say what i think. the thing that concerns me about the homeland more than anything sells the issue of americans having passports, who have gone to syria laugh become radicalized then they have ability to get back in the united states or great britain or canada. give you an example, you had individual, an american who went to serious radicalized was trained as suicide bomber came home toe see his parents then went back to syria blew himself up and killed other people we didn't pick up the visit to his parents.

that individual was trained could have tea tacked the united states. that's a concern to me. brett let me say this from american point of view. as of today we don't have intelligence that says that there's going to be an attack tomorrow. now that can change the next day. and that's why we're so vigilant. that's why what happened with snowden and these situations, we need to make sure we get the intelligence -- >> schieffer: let me ask you this. can you under any circumstances envision the united states sending ground combat troops back absolutely not. that's not where we need to be. we have intelligence per speck from ability to use our resources take out groups like isis. it's got to be well planned get information. we don't need boots on the ground any more. we don't need tanks going in or infantry in there that's not what we're dealing with. not taking over another country. not going to do. that the american public does not want that either. >> schieffer: all right. congressman, thank you so much. hope to see you again. 57 years ago harvard professor henry kissinger came on "face

the nation" to talk about new book, well he has another new one "world order. it's his 17th when we ask him about the threat from isis when he stopped by earlier he said we should have already hit them hard. so you're talking about a massive response not hitting one target but as many as possible. >> an american is murdered on television for the purpose of terrorizing americans, there should be a response that you cannot -- you would not analyze in terms of a normal response to provocation. so something has to crystallize out of this violence and it won't happen without our leadership. we cannot do it all by ourselves. but we can make clear that certain tactics will be

resistant. >> schieffer: i want to ask you about russia. has the obama administration talked to you or sought your advice on russia? because to my way of thinking, nobody probably knows putin as well as you do. >> it depends how you define the obama administration. until very recently i have had no conversation even with security advisor. on that subject. i have had access to the secretary of state it's my basic philosophy is that i don't volunteer advice. i've been in that position. and i know what it's like but i try to respond to questions when they're put to me. >> schieffer: let me ask you a question. what should our message be to russia and to mr. putin right now and what should our strategy be.

>> professor:. >> the situation has come very far and using military presence which we cannot accept. there for it is appropriate for us to insist that the military pressures -- bob the problem he says is to convince putin it is bet are for both sides if ukraine becomes a bridge between them rather than an outpost of either. >> we need an outcome that does not make the west appear weak. and an outcome that does not make it appear humiliated. can one find a passage between it. we cannot permit country to be -- but we should do it in a manner that keeps open the possibility that russia joins

international system rather than it is put in a position where it feels totally outkast. >> rightly or wrongly there seems to be a perception in various parts of the world that the united states is somehow withdrawing, do you feel that, do you hear that? fundamental statement of the administration have emphasized more what we should not do than what we can achieve. they have implied withdrawal of america from certain regions is actually beneficial to these regions. i think in the countries that i know and that very many of them it's that the united states is

restoring, not so much about american presence is about american actions. >> schieffer: for the partisan divide in washington on foreign policy, kissinger beliefs america must always remain involved. must always play a role. >> i would any way prefer it if both parties had comparable policy in that respect and disagreed mostly on tactics. we shouldn't tell the american people that there's -- two absolute solutions. could say historic which every part of the world is changing simultaneously but it cannot change creatively without a major american contribution. >> schieffer: his book goes on sale around the world this week. we'll be back in one minute.

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>> schieffer: this week we mark the 13th anniversary of the one of the worst days in american history the day we have come to know by two numbers 9/11. memories of that day may have faded for some for those of us who were in the northeast that day it will never be forgotten. all of us, my family was among the lucky my brother was in the pentagon the day before the attack in the very room where the plane hit. we lost contact for four hours with my younger daughter in new york. but she was eventually found safe. i knew 11 people who died or lost close relatives that day including a young colleague at cbs news who lost her dad. so forgive me if i feel a certain urgency about the current terror threat, forgive me but i've been through this before. no, i can't forget the bad but i

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>> schieffer: welcome back. we're here with three of the best to talk about it analyze it peggy noonan from the "wall street journal." david ignatious of the "washington post," peter baker of the "new york times." the president is going to make a speech on wednesday. what does he need to say? >> i think he complains what his strategy s. it's time to come out say what it is. he had elements of it already out there, went to nato he talked to allies there about joining a coalition he wants to obviously arm and do better with the syrian army going to need to help american public what he wants to accomplish to, detroy isil or isis or shrink to manageable size needs to reconcile these different messages that have been sent in the last few days. >> peggy how did we get and how did the president get to where he is now where you hear people

saying does he understand this is really important? >> it's a very funny thing. we have had a few weeks actually a few months in which we have seen when we look at that part of the world iraq and northern ear gentleman isis, grimmist, most terrible, beheadings and the now treatment of so many people, it's quite shocking. and yet the president's comments on this immediate crisis have been -- have varied from, this is very serious to not so terribly serious i think the biggest thing he has to do wednesday night is tell us, this is how i really see it. this is what we're really going to do. this is how we're going to do it. this is doable. he's going to have to regain something he's lost in the past few months, maybe credibility on these serious foreign affairs issues. >> schieffer: i want to get

your perspective on this same question. obviously people are questioning are they question everything, should he have gone on vacation to should he have gone to stonehenge on the day that he held this news conference about all of this. i've been here a long time i can't remember a president getting criticized for going on vacation. the criticism seems pointed this time around it's not all just coming from republicans. >> he's on his back foot. he's defensive every thing he says often ends up looking like the wrong thing even if when you parse it, there's some sense in the middle of it. i think in this speech wednesday night in addition to laying out the details of policies so americans understand what we're going to do. understand where we're going he needs to bring an emotional resonance to what he says, not to flatter our host, the piece you did remembering 9/11 what it felt like some of that has to come through from the president

because he's taking us back in to a deadly conflict with a very dangerous adversary i hope it will have both. have clear detail, emotional power. >> schieffer: i mean, is emotio -- the president during his news conference said that he tried to layout, look we're trying to be very deliberate about that. i think probably that's a good thing. we have to be -- >> don't have to worry about deliberate. he gets that just fine. what he needs to worry about is the other part. >> the same time americans are so used to hearing their political figures try to tug at their heartstrings and hit their heart all that stuff. i think the to america is the brain, i think the president has to sort of say you know what, let me tell what you is difference about isis and why this is a very specific thing in history and why because of that we do have to move forward and do something. i do not think people saying he

needs passion. i keep saying he needs good, clear sense. >> schieffer: you heard henry kissinger, basically said i already hit him. he basically said, there cannot be a measured response when we see the kind of atrocities. i think what he was trying to say, what did he say here, is to get through to the american people that i understand how awful this is and we're going to do something about it. >> i think that's right. part of the passion, or sense of understanding, visceral understanding ever ho you horrible the beheading videos were how horrible the situation on the ground not just for americans but for syrians and iraqis hard for him it seems to convey. that we're impatient. we want to hit right away. remember after you talked about 9/11, after 9/11 took four weeks before president bush did anything in afghanistan because it does take time to get the

surveillance right what targets, to figure out what your strategy s. even person like president bush is often criticized for cowboy actions took time to figure out what the plan is. that's what president obama has done we're not a patient society right now isis doesn't make us feel like we want to be patient. >> looking before for the way to respond, let's go bomb them, you have to have something to bomb. we saw some overnight they hit isis around this second dam which apparently there was worry that they were going to take that over. >> if you want a little model of what is ahead what the strategy is, look to the events of the last 48 hours. use their power over new targets in the anbar province in the western part of iraq to hit isil fighters at this dam. hitting them at another dam in the north now they are at the hadefa dam.

iraqi special separations forces trained by the u.s., maintain good contact with them came in to hit the isil fighters on the ground joined by, we're told, iraqi sunni tribal fighters, organizing a quiet effort that involves saudi arabia, thebe uae jordan and u.s. over the last months. that's the shape of what is coming. it's a very tough strategy to execute but it's getting started, and it's go -- problem is you have to go house to house in mosul in fallujah, in ramadi all these cities where they're dug in what is going to do that if it's not americans? >> schieffer: that's the question here. you don't do that with airplanes. do you that with troops on the ground and can there be a successful strategy without u.s. troops or troops from some place in the west going in there to do this? >> i feel like in a way we're confusing two things.

it is one thing to say u.s. guys in there intelligence for guidance for some leadership i get that. that's different from, hey guys, let's invade a nation and do nation building. isis is a specific threat. we know 50 targets which we can go bam boom, boom, yes human beings on the ground. this doesn't have to be hundreds ever thousands of americans invading a country that does not want us. it's different. as i hear the president in his interview, i think he allies the two. >> schieffer: i'm not advocating that we send u.s. troops there but somebody is going to have to do this. peter, what is latest news on iraqi government, are they going to be able to come together and form some kind -- >> that's key to this. because we're not going to put troops on the ground in substantial numbers have to be iraqis to do it. you have to do new government.

malaki is on the way out. make sure that they form this new government as they promise to do because otherwise it doesn't go anywhere. you look at syria we don't have government we're working with. we're at odds with him he should go. who are our friends there, our proxies are the free syrian army maybe 4,000 some fighters that we've trained and vetted on very large force, haven't been very effective so far can we make them more effective on the ground to go along with hair power. very big question, you follow isis to the gates of hell you don't do a drone. how do you get there? >> schieffer: are there other ground forces in that part of the world that could physician we could convince them to do it, could be a factor here? >> the truth is the united states is going to have to keep trying to build them, especially syria. we've decided that we're not going to ally with president bashar who is going after isil

himself. there are plans now taking shape, i just talked to the head of the syrian moderate oppositions anti--isil cell. there are plans to build a force to go along with the force that peter mentioned that the cia has been training covertly. as peter said between 4-5,000 people with much billinger force that would be trained by our military trainers under overt legal program go in to areas where you bomb and isiv on the run then you need something, one lesson from iraq. don't knock the pegs out without being able to fill the vacuum. >> and isis oisil mystique. they have mystique going for them. they have been winning so far that has to be broken and world needs to see that it is broken and it can be broken but you

have to move relatively quickly and sharply. >> schieffer: somebody deconstruct the president's latest pronouncements on immigration. >> he said he's going to wait until after election to take action but he will take it which is interesting formulation of course. it's calculation on some level that he doesn't believe that the action he would take, we will take would be ratified by american voters in two months in the mid term election. also recognition if he makes that the central issue for a lot of races where democrats are vulnerable if the senate goes republican because of his decision to do it, he obviously has blow back within his own party. he thinks that making it easier for illegals to stay here would be sustainable only if it's taken outside of this electoral environment where billion dollars worth of ads would fight it out he wants to wait until after the election much like he

did with other issues like don't ask -- >> schieffer: which i found interesting he was not doing this for political reasons yet all weekend white house officials officials have been briefing reporters on background make no bones they said, yes this is why we're doing it. keeping the senate democratic. >> the president's denials that politics, i think are pro forma. of course it's politics. the president is a political leader, it's not forbidden for him to make decision that are sensible politics for his party and his governance. governing strategies. they're not lot of surprises here. >> truly one wrap on obama he's not political enough he doesn't do politics well. seeing him in a little more political, cynical calculating mode that doesn't shock or upset me. >> schieffer: what do you think would be the fall out from this? >> i think it was odd move and

an odd announcement on the president's part. here's why. it will upset his friends and strong members ever his space while at the same time it will not quiet his opposition because his opposition will say okay, you know what we said probably going to do tuesday? he's going to do it tuesday but tuesday in november. it's not as if he changed his stances only his timing. i don't see what that -- i'll leave it there. i don't really see what that gets him. >> schieffer: you've already seen republican reaction. mitch mcconnell what he didn't say, wait until after the election. >> here ishe analogy this weekend, the 1994 mid-term election and often blamed on clinton's decision to go ahead with gun control measures in the election year. it had clinton waited until after that election he wouldn't

have given issue to the opposition that cost them the congress they don't want to make what they see as mistake to president clinton made. is calculation, it is political of course it's empty call. president's own words meaning if he did it now in this political context. >> schieffer: he said at some point -- >> not why he's doing it. >> and spend next two months making the case, talking to the american people. said the american people don't really understand. but he did not say but i'm going to do this, i'm going to drive it home because i'm going to explain it, i'm going to linger over and spur swayed you come along with me. he didn't do that. his statement sort of suggested the american people will magically come to understand and agree with his position in november. >> schieffer: why don't we take a break we'll come back talk about all this in a moment.

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fire. already see it beginning to fray. the goal, can i get this off the front page try to see if they can deal with larger, more substantial issues underlying the conflict. that's note easy thing. you can easily see this becoming what they call a frozen conflict in the soviet air a. sowf evacuate area which they simply -- sowf yet area where they remain at loggerheads. >> schieffer: do you see any good news there. >> i don't. one of these cease fire agreement you are thankful that people won't get killed. but i think this agreement ratifies russian gains, ratifies russian interventions through proxy forces, leaves ukraine pot boiling any time russians want to turn up the heat, it's unfortunate deal, shows really that the president in ukraine was getting overwhelmed on the battlefield. >> schieffer: i want to turn now to something else as we speak, the funeral has begun in new york for joan rivers.

and peggy you wrote a blog about her this week and what you think she means to the american people. i just want to hear from you about that a little bit. >> well, i think a lot of people were swept the past few days of a tore by real affection for her, affection that almost took them aback. it was a tribute to how much we appreciate people who make us laugh. she was profane she was on the border, she was transgressive, she was subverse i have she was whacky, she played the fool. she made america laugh for a long time, half a century. beautiful things have been written about her i think she would have loved everyone of them. she was a great woman. >> schieffer: she left instructions to her daughter. i don't want to quiet thing here i want a big deal. i want hollywood, i want a lot

of paparazzi which was just so joan rivers. >> going to be good. gay men's chorus will sing. the nypd it's going to be a show she would have loved it. >> schieffer: thank you all very much. we'll be back to look all tho senate races outside washington how they're shaping up. stay with us. at perdue, we pride ourselves on the freshness of our chicken. well, not that kind of fresh. but i can guarantee the freshness of our chicken because we go beyond what the usda requires... with extra inspections in american family owned farms, refrigerated trucks that deliver daily and everywhere in between.

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"new york times" joint venture the 2014 battleground tracker. our own director of elections here at cbs news anthony salvanto. what is the led line? >> republicans still have the edge, bob. we would say that if the election were held today it would be 51-49 republican senate. the overall environment continues to favor them by which i mean the state of the economy is still seen as poor by most voters. and president's approval rating still under 50% historically you would image ip that would give the party out of power an edge. but it's how did that edge is

that becomes political point here. those numbers could go a lot higher if the republicans, we see this in almost every state can move beyond very enthusiastic, very motivated conservative base start winning some of the moderates that they aren't yet getting. >> schieffer: in one of the key races that is down in georgia where michelle nunn is trying to win that seat that was held by republican. someone down there told me said, look, this is going to come down to two things. men and women, blacks and whites. said michelle won gets big turn out of women and big turn out of african americans she's going to win. if it goes the other way the republican purdue is going to win. what are you finding on that front? >> we see a gender gap in nearly every state, women are going for the democrats and men are going for for the republicans that is the case. turn out to go go to be huge in a lot of these states. in a lot of these states large

parts of the electorate, georgia is one of them, north carolina is one of them, louisiana is one ever them, heavily democratic groups that tend not to vote in large numbers in the mid terms including african americans. if that changes you see democrats having a better chance this is by no means over. republicans are in better position, it's a 60-40 things. 40% chance democrats keep it. >> schieffer: it's very very close in all these races. >> it's close in all of them. and what is keeping this close not just gender gap but also use of the current administration. the president is on the ballot in mid terms to some extent. in some of these states we see that over half of the voters say that they're going to the polls just to vote against the administration that is certainly motivating knack for for republicans for democrats running, that is arkansas that is louisiana, it's a lot of the already conservative southern states. that campaigning at a distance from the president we see that

going on all over. >> schieffer: talk about that david. >> what are the close races right now? >> the way i think is there are six battleground races. the democrats need four to keep the senate, the problem is only two of them are in states that the president wants. basically republican territory in these six are arkansas, alaska, colorado iowa, louisiana, north carolina. democrats need four of them. there's some fascinating races iowa is a great race with popular democrat and conservative republican, you have tv ads with people firing guns and talking about hog castration and it's really close race. the they're going to be populous democrat or conservative democrat. colorado is another good one. folks around the country may look at these races say what do i learn nationally what is going on in some of these states. colorado has so many interest at play energy, you have guns, you have pot, you have lot of things

at work. i think that in all of these races though the other commonality that we see is really about whether democrats can motivate, something like presidential year turn out among their base right now we just don't see that. which is why republicans have very narrow edge atal all. >> schieffer: thank you all. we'll be back in a moment. when folks think about what they get from alaska, they think salmon and energy. but the energy bp produces up here creates something else as well: jobs all over america. engineering and innovation jobs. advanced safety systems & technology.

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>> schieffer: that's it for us today. before we go we want to note the passing of long time cbs news correspondent bruce morton whodied friday after a long battle with cancer. he was a gifted writer reported for cbs news for almost 30 years and he loved politics. he was 83. and next week we will be right back here when we'll be talking to new york democratic senator can i continues, and ken burns will be here to preview his new series for pbs "the roosevelts"

we hope to see you then i'll see you tomorrow night on the cbs evening news. thanks for watching "face the nation." captioning sponsored by cbs captioned by media access group at wgbh access.wgbh.org

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