from washington, the mclaughlin group. the american original for over three decades. the sharpest minds, best source, hardest talk. issue one. election day. this coming tuesday, november 4, the nation goes to the polls to choose our leaders. the most consequenceial obligation of american citizenship. this year 36 seats of the u.s. senate will be contested. winners will serve the 6-year term. 21 of these 36 sheet -- seats are held by democrats. 15 by republicans. control of the senate is now vested in democrats. to take control, the gop must

retain its 15 seats plus win 6 seats. according to conventional and mclaughlin group wisdom and polling, the gop will safely win three of these seats from the democrats. the states of montana, south dakota and west virginia. that means a plus-three pickup for the gop, with three more seats needed to win the senate. the 10 remaining races are cliffhangers, meaning it is anyone's game. seven are democratic, three are republican. let's begin with alaska. incumbent democrat mark beggage versus dan sullivan. >> who will win in alaska? pat buchanan? >> obama is to heavy a load for beggidge to carry. sullivan will take it going away. >> i think beggidge can pull it out. he's a we will-known name in

alaska. by alaska standarders sullivan is a carpetbagger. >> i'm betting beggidge will lose. sullivan has had a number of bad turns in his campaign -- sullivan has crept up on him. >> mark? >> i think beggidge wins as well. i just don't see how it can be pulled out -- i mean, mi by his opponent in any other way. just isn't there. >> sullivan will win. so the group votes 4-1 sullivan. alaska goes republican. arkansas. mark pryor vs. tim cotton. who is the winner? pat? >> the republicans win this one, john. looks like pryor is really fading towards the end of the race. i think that is a real republican pickup. >> tim cotton, harvard grad, farmer, iraq war veteran. republicans will be talking about him as a puppy

presidential candidate. >> cotton has the momentum. >> i think cotton is an easy winner in this one. a wide margin for that state. mclaughlin votes for cotton. arkansas goes republican. okay, colorado incumbent democrat mark udall. vs. cory gardner. >> gardner is beginning to pull away during the last week of the campaign. i think udall goes down in colorado. another pickup for the republicans. >> gardner has walked away from all his conservative positions. he still supports a federal personhood amendment. he doesn't support on the local level, the state votes entirely by mail. i think udall still has a chance to pull it out but it is tough. >> the much wanted democratic ground game will help udall here to pull it out. yeah, i think udall is to tied to obama to win the state. i think his opponent will win. >> mclaughlin says gardener. group votes 3-2 gardener.

-- gardner. group votes 3-2. michelle nunn versus david perdue. who wins georgia? >> my feeling has been that if the democrats are going to in effect pick up a seat she is a nonincumbent. michelle -- i mean ms. nunn is the one that is going to do it and i had predicted she was going to win. if i could change it now, i would say it is a toss-up. >> eleanor? >> perdue brags he would be the only fortune 500 member of the u.s. senate if he wins '' that is not a great credential this year. michelle nunn, daughter of sarment sam nunn has run a campaign right down the middle. i think she wins. >> nunn has a great chance to win in comparison to other democrats. if she loses i i -- it is bad night for democrats. >> she is a wonderful campaigner, michelle nunn. she carries the nunn name, she

has a lot of name recognition. i don't think it will be close. >> mclaughlin says perdue will pull it out. we vote 4-1, nunn. georgia democratic. iowa, bruce braley ver venus joanie ernst. >> joanie ernst is a hot ticket. let me tell you. as a candidate she has pizazz, big smile. i have to believe if it is a republican night, that joanie ernst is going to be a winner and she will be a sensation if this town if she comes here. >> eleanor? >> she has managed to hold some very conservative positions, but at the same time reach out and appeal to moderates. and she smiles. she is likeable. i think she wins and you're right, she would be on the stage with the republican leaders whenever they have a chance to put her forward. >> two magic words for her?

hog castrater. that is her ad that caught national attention. so if she wins with that reputation ahead of her -- i think she pulls it out. >> mark? >> i agree. i think it is fairly unanimous. i think this is going to be -- she is a dynamic campaigner. she will do very well. >> mclaughlin says joanie ernst. 5-0. iowa goes republican. pat? kansas incumbent republican pat roberts versus independent. >> if the republicans are going to lose one it will be georgia or this one and i have said i felt that roberts because he's not we will off with the tea party folks. he's -- he's older. i thought he was going to lose and i predicted he was going to lose and i -- so i will stand by that that the democrats will take -- >> good history of your migration on this issue, pat? give us all you can. we only have four minutes.

eleanor? >> senator ravich kind of bragged about the fact rented a barcalounger back home in kansas. not having a permanent residence in the state you represent is a fatal error. i think the independent pulls it out and it will be wonderful to see the independent caucus which is now two, expanded to three. they could be the -- the power center in a divided congress. >> clarence? >> yeah, i think orman wins it. independents are strong these days. parties are -- the brands are damaged and in that state, the way this whole thing has come about -- it will work in his favor. >> mark? >> i don't think ormond will win but i know pat roberts will definitely lose. you cannot win this particular state without a residence in the state. that doesn't hold water. >> mclaughlin says ormand. the group votes 4-1. kansas

goes for the independent. kentucky, mitch mcconnell vs. allison lunderagan grimes. pat? >> ca ris ma wins -- charisma wins it. mcconnell wins it again. he's very tough. very able. they just won't get that guy out of there. and she -- when she -- ms. grimes refused to say who she voted for in 2012 -- >> yeah -- >> that. >> i think it hurt her. kentucky is a red state. mcconnell is coming back to lead the new majority. >> mcconnell is the wiley coyote but i couldn't bear to give it to him so i'm sticking with allison lundergan grimes. they don't like mcconnell in the state. if the senate goes republican, it will be a great consolation prize for democrats if mcconnell goes down. >> eleanor vote with your heart. forget your head. >> that's right. >> i would have said grimes myself, if -- mcconnell's

approvals are terrible right now but, you know, turnout is very important for democrats and it is going to be hard to get people to turn out for a woman who would not say publicly that she voted for barack obama when everybody know she is did. >> i think mcconnell will definitely win. he has delivered for the state. brought the bacon home. if he's going to be the majority leader they are not going to pass up that opportunity. >> right again. mclaughlin says mcconnell. the group votes 4-1 mccon medical. kentucky is republican. democrat marry landreaux vs. bill cassidy. >> mary landreaux had a bad last week. this is a red state. i thought for a long time she would be one of the ones that would survive. i think she is going to get beat by 5 points at least. >> she made a floor? floor? >> f-l-a-w. >> i don't think either cassidy or landreaux will reach the threshold. it will probably go into a

runoff and mary landreaux has been there before. she survived in her last race. she wanted a december runoff. i think she does it again. >> landreaux has been here before, before katrina. she lost a number of voters because of katrina. but i'm sticking with her. >> i'm going with cassidy. i thin welcome in this state at this stage of the game. she has made a lot of mistakes. i don't think she survives it. >> you think she is alligator bait? >> i never thought of her in those terms. we vote 3-2 cassidy. louisiana goes republican. new hampshire? incumbent democrat jean shaheen vs. republican scott brown. >> jean shaheen is a very tough candidate, rooted in new hampshire, she is the governor of new hampshire. she is fairly popular in new hampshire. but i pick scott brown because i -- i mean, i saw him coming on and he's an enormously attractive guy and he has roots back in new hampshire.

so i pick scott brown. but i will say this. people should watch new hampshire on election night and the way that goes. if scott brown wins new hampshire, it is going to be a blood bath for the democrats. >> eleanor? >> if jean shaheen wins new hampshire things will be looking better. she is popular in the state. he really is a carpetbagger. he ran in massachusetts junior lost . then he moves to new hampshire. he was asked about sullivan county. he had no idea where it was or what it was. big gaffe at the end of the campaign. >> the polls show 49% to 49%. clarence? >> in brief i think shaheen pulls it out because she has got the roots and brown doesn't. >> i agree i think shaheen pulls it out. it will be a very close call but i think she will basically pull through. >> caller: says brown in a come from behind victory. new hampshire stays

democratic. okay. north carolina, incumbent democrat kay hagin vs. republican tom tillos. >> tillos has had $25 million in attack ads dumped on his head. normally i'm surprised he's not in jail after that kind of stuff but i think he's coming on at the end of this week. and i think kay hagin has run into some problems. she is a very tough competitor. she is a tough candidate. but i think that north carolina is going to go with tillos, put him in the united states senate. >> kay hagin is the incumbent. she has had $30 million of attack ads dumped on her head, beginning last year. and most of the polls she maintains a slight lead. so she has been consistent. i think she pulls it out. >> yeah. i think kay hagin has the advantage of a lot of high emotions on the left in north carolina. they are fired up. we will see now. if they don't -- again, a long night for democrats if she doesn't pull it out'.

long night. mclaughlin says tillos -- >> what what does mortimer say. >> i think kay hagin loses. she has basically lost her welcome in the state as well. >> right on the money, mort, once again. you know what money is. >> mclaughlin says tillos. north carolina goes republican. okay, tally time. republicans win 9 new seats. alaska, arkansas, colorado, iowa, louisiana, montana, north carolina, south dakota, and west virginia. but republicans also lose two seats, georgia and kansas, for a net-plus republican gain of seven seats. what does that mean? it means the six-seat win threshold has been passed. and a majority of the group on this platform declare that the u.s. senate -- you're going to say something? >> 48 seat force the democrats afterwards and 52 for the republicans.

they have got the senate, john. >> correct. buchanan interrupted my flow here but i'm going to resume my flow. the u.s. house stays republican after the election day. you understand? >> republicans will gain in the house. gain seats in the house. >> we haven't done the house. >> which is what always happens most of the time in midterm elections. no big surprise. >> so here's the next question. is this election a referren -- referendum on barack obama? >> it is definitely a referendum on barack obama and the corp tense of the federal government -- competence of the federal government. >> his low approval isn't helping but the sainted ronald reagan, republicans lost the senate in 1986 when reagan was at the height of his popularity. there is o a lot more going on. >> i agree. unfortunately for obama, he's being compared to bill clinton who managed to gain seats

during the monica lewinsky scandal during this point of his two-term presidency. >> she is back on the scene, you know that. >> she is entitled to be. but that was a case where clinton generated sympathy for himself expect the democrats and the republicans came out losers. obama hasn't been able to swing anything close to that. >> i think -- i predicted on this show a number of months ago that the republicans would -- increase their margin in each house and take control of the house of representatives. i think obama is the principal cause of it and so, too, is a weak economy. i don't believe the -- excuse me. one period and i can go into it. >> just one thing. i'm not going to go into that but it is the employment numbers. the job numbers that are going to affect the election and those job numbers are very weak and that is what is going to affect -- at every level of

every state. >> the economy has problems. the stagnating angels. lo participation in the work force and inequality. those are all themes that were present in the previous and much of which this president inherited. >> this election is definitely a referendum on barack obama. >> of course. >> don't forget the manage group has its -- the mclaughlin group has its own web site. you can watch this program on the web at any time from anywhere in the world at mclaughlin.com. could anything be simpler. mclaughlin.com, or more self rewarding. i can't think of anything. >> i can. >> a new standard and i agree with you. when we come back, america -- does america have special ties to ebola-stricken liberia?

where you headed?

uh just gonna hang out. it's a school night. with gary and todd? yea. not sure about those two. i've been meaning to ask you - this is tougher than i thought - is there any drinking going on in this crowd? no. i hope not, because alcohol can lead you to say things and do things you that you really wish you hadn't. isn't this what you're supposed to say? i know. so if any of your buddies ever pressure you to take a drink, just tell them you promised your dad you wouldn't. i'd do anything to keep you safe. ok. i will. i hope this is working. i promise. i love you too dad. they really do hear you. brian? yea? so start the conversation even before they're teenagers. good idea. for tips on what to say visit underagedrinking.samhsa.gov a message from the substance abuse and mental health services administration.

issue two. once more into the breach. the liberian breach. >> what i signed this morning was a memorandum to the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff in response to the memorandum of recommendation i received from the chairman and the chiefs yesterday to go forward with a policy of essentially 21-day incubation for our men and women returning from west africa. the fact is the military will

have more americans in liberia than in the other department. >> liberia is the epicenter of the ebola outbreak gripping west africa. under orders from commander-in- chief obama, the united states is sending hundreds of military personnel from bases in colorado and texas to build treatment facilities in africa for ebola patients and administer humanitarian relief. defense secretary hagel said the plan to isolate us troops for 21 days before their return was developed in consultation with military families who, he said, very much wanted a safety valve, unquote, to prevent the spread of ebola. liberia has long-standing historical ties to the united states. it was founded in 1817 as a colony for freed american slaves to be resettled in africa. and declared itself to be a free republican by governor j.

j. roberts in 1847 under a constitution patterned after that of the united states. many liberians can claim descent from african americans who settled in liberia in the 19th century. and interestingly, its principal port city is named buchanan. >> buchanan. what is with buchanan? >> buchanan secretary of state, james buchanan, also president of the states, john, member of the american colonization society. he was second generation. this was established basically by the american colonization society and americans of all parties, basically, who felt they ought to find place for slaves when they didn't -- when they felt if we're going to put an end to slavery, they didn't believe that blacks and whites could live together and they wanted to find place in africa for african americans to live. that was the name of the game before abraham lincoln. >> lincoln supported it as a possible option among other options. >> i was in liberia with

richard nixon. clearly we went to -- we had big meeting with all of them and they were as american as they -- they were as like americans, the folks running it up until master sergeant samuel doe had that brutal revolution and murdered and abandoned them on beach. >> they have had a lot of problems with governance. but they have a female president, ellen surleafjohnson. but they have been overwhelmed by spread of ebola. i give president obama a lost credit. he was ahead of the curve when he deployed american troops to liberia. our military has the resources and the logistical expertise and i also think it is a right policy to quarantine them for 21 days. the american military families were pressing for this. and that is very different from quarantining medical personnel that go over there. why? because when you go into the military, -- >> i know --

>> you surrender your rights. when you're like the nurse maine -- >> if your -- why is it right for the military to get 21 days quarantine when they are not treating patients but it is okay for a nurse or someone back an aide worker to come back and go out on the street or go bike riding in maine. there is no consistency between that and -- in terms of the health of the american people. >> no, we -- we have different -- we have a different relationship with -- with the military. when you go into the military, you give up many of your rights and fighting ebola in west africa is less dangerous than going on night patrols in afghanistan. the medical personnel that go over there are on a voluntary basis and they come back and they monitor their health and everything we know about this disease says if you have no symptoms, you're not spreading the disease. and -- >> tell that to the doctor up there in new york. >> the doctor he reported himself. voluntarily. >> this is the difference. >> if i may inject something

here. the military culture is difference. in the military culture when the order is given, people follow it. this is for the sake of everybody. and civilian culture you want to encourage volunteerism. >> but if you want to effect the health of the american people first -- >> pat -- you agree the disease is not -- the disease is not catching -- is not -- >> after 21 days. >> okay. if you're not showing symptoms. >> good morning. good morning. >> number one -- >> it is true. >> if you aren't showing symptoms you can't catch it. >> excuse me. these soldiers are not their voluntarily. they are there as part of a military con i thinkent. i don't think they should be -- continget. i don't think they should be forced to lose any protections they can get. >> you don't know how they are protected. >> yes, i do because they are not working with ill patients. >> 21 days is not the worst thing that could happen in order to protect the people that -- >> it is tied to the military. >> you don't take the slightest

chance of a catastrophic outcome. the last thing you want to do is to risk that this kind of disease should -- >> where -- we're supporting the military. we're supporting the military being quarantined. >> we will be back to this issue in a future program. we will be right back with predictions. blah

lking to veterans about the real issues they're dealing with can be awkward and uncomfortable. we think to ourselves, "i never served. how could i understand? they'll talk about it when they're ready." and then we wonder why they don't want to talk. but when their behavior changes, when they withdraw to themselves, increase substance use or even talk about hurting themselves it's time to act. because if we don't, our families and relationships will suffer. ask the hard questions. listen to the veterans in your life and show you care.

make the call. it matters. when you recognize a veteran is in crisis call the veterans crisis line at 1-800-273-8255 and press "1". sorry, out of time. bye bye!

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welcome to government contracting weekly sponsored by aoc key solutions, inc. government contracting weekly is the only television program devoted exclusively to the competitive and dynamic world of government contracting, a world where coming in second place is not an option but where principle-centered winning is the only approach. good morning and welcome to government contracting weekly. i'm jim mccarthy, the owner of key solutions and the host of this show. it's no secret that the department of homeland security is one of the most dynamic agencies in the government contracting industry. and within dhs, cuoms and border protection represents an enormous and vital component, yet many contractors struggle with how to best work within the cbp and other dhs components and acquisition structure. joining me today to help clarify these issues