juliette saly on the rbnz rate and the language used. enda curran to talk us through the whole inflation. we have marked champion with the latest on the war in ukraine. dani: let's start with new zealand whose central bank has raised interest rates by half a percentage point. let's get more with bloomberg's juliette saly in singapore. break down the decision for us and the market reaction. juliette: catching about 15 of the 20 economists off guard, they are expecting a quarter-point hike. they are saying the path of least regret is to move more aggressively now rather than to have to play catch-up down the track as they grapple with inflation. the rbnz likes the inflation but -- to be between 1% to 3%. they've increased rates by 125 basis points since october force -- october 4. you could see another 50 basis point hike, 50% chance of that coming through in the may meeting. asb and kiwi bank calling for that. let's have a look at what it did to market reaction. we are seeing yields yet -- drop. we saw quite a big move. let's have a look

what are the and plug-ins for the rbnz here?aled it was done, it came as a surprise to a lot of people at the last meeting. they are content to let the lacking impact of the 525 basis points of tightening we have seen layout. there could be more to come because of mortgage holders not going to roll over. other issues at play here as well. we have an election year in new zealand this year. there will be political dimension to this. it is the economy stupid. it expects political mileage to made out of this. this recession has, earlier than the reserve bank predict appeared the anticipated one in the second and third quarter. it has come in the first quarter instead. the next meeting is on july 12, and a week after that we get inflation numbers. next month we will get a better sense of what the rbnz does next. or it could be nothing. shery: confirming that recession for new zealand, and of course a great deal of uncertainty when it comes to those expectations, but also the implications of the rbnz. we are watching, the reaction whe

no surprise from the rbnz either.iette: no, preparing the markets for further rate cuts despite leaving the cash rate on hold at 2%. governor graham willis says easing will be needed to boost inflation in new zealand even as the economy grows at one of the fastest paces in the developed world. record low borrowing costs have fueled a housing boom with growth rising 3.6% to june. the strong kiwi is keeping inflation at the bottom end of the rbnz target band. they key we fell flatly sense they announced they would leave a rates on hold, but has climbed steadily since january. speaking of the stubbornly high fronterra is patting itself on the back with an earnings climb of 65%. revenue however was down by 9%. terra has cut jobs and sold assets to strengthen its balance sheet. shares down by .2% in wellington. the cheek executive told daybreak asia that he is proud of the overall numbers. >> looking at our results, looking back to 2016, extremely strong results in quite a difficult market environment with a geopolitical i

the rbnz has set on two bands of tightening that several economists polled by bloomberg do not expect cash rate will go beyond 2% this cycle. the prediction is for the rbnz to hike key rates to 2% by early 2023 but a rate strategists said there are risks in either direction to that outlook. there could be pressure to hike as mortars reopen in new zealand. over at citigroup, they're noting that rbnz when it comes to inflation, they put up their timeline for the hike at 2% by the first quarter of 2024. haidi: those numbers will come out from new zealand in the next five minutes or so. the st. louis fed president said it is time to end emergency measures to support the economy. he spoke exclusively with bloomberg's michael mckee. >> i think it's clear that some of the inflation will be temporary. how much feeds into a more persistent process is really the question that the committee has to wrestle with going forward. i think we are already above our target on core pc inflation. according to the summary of economic projections katie is -- the committee is predicting 3%, excluding food and

what is the rbnz expected to do?g ie are looking out for doubling down on the amount of bonds they have been buying. they started that in march. they are seen taking that number two $50 billion new zealand. and remember in the emergency march meeting, they cut their points. by 75 basis it was a surprising move, aggressive. it was always a question of the rbnz signaling they are ready to do something like that, negative rates, or more than that if needed. they are looking at a gdp in the second quarter that is expected to drop up to 22%. it was not that strong but 1.8% growth, unemployment could get to 10%. coming,e is a budget the finance minister speaking in a couple of days to give more stimulus because the economy is in need of it and that will mean more bonds. that is one more reason why the rbnz would be ready to buy more bonds. they want to keep yields from rising especially when other countries are issuing bonds, you got to do something to make sure high.ields don't get too as for negative rates, adrian, the h

shery: how will the yvonne: -- the rbnz affect others?nition and they have been the two, if you look at rba governor philip lowe's comments in jackson hole, if you have your just rates above that zero or below and you need to use unconventional monetary policy tools, you want to get in front of that and get in early. i guess the nearest analogy is the rba and what they might do. here are some signs from that, when philip lowe, the rba governor, speaks very soon unconventional monetary policy. haidi: in a few minutes time we will be getting that announcement from the rbnz, thank you, james mcintyre in sydney. we are about to hear from rbnz in a few minutes and we will be hearing from the man himself on friday in an exclusive conversation at 6:30 friday morning if you are watching in hong kong. let's check is this flash headlines. nike is breaking up with amazon, ending a pilot project where it sold its products on the website. the company says the decision is part of its focus to get more direct relations with consumers, and that it will i

this as we await the rbnz's policy decision.likely to tighten by the third quarter of 2022. we are expecting the central bank might push back against that tightening chatter. haidi: coming up next, we get more on the new zealand policy decision. why the rbnz may be dispelling talks on a v-shaped recovery. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> it is not just unemployment or inflation or the employment rate. it is all three of those. they need to be above certain levels. that was the big sigh of relief on wall street. >> it is clear he things we need to go big as president biden does. >> we are at a very precarious and unique moment of economic crisis and that is why we feel confident we will be better off if we take these actions definitively. >> we think inflation is going to be a messy story and that is going to keep the fed on the sidelines. we are constructive. haidi: some guests on bloomberg television >> -- some guest on bloomberg television earlier reacting to jay powell's testimony. maintain current bond buying program for the foreseea

's that our risk for the rbnz? governor orr: it is a risk. don't think it's a new or different risks, however, and we have been doing a lot of work to see if the monetary transmission mechanism has changed at all, how impactful our interest rates on that domestic homegrown insulation. all of our work says it is business as usual. we just have to be patient. of course you mentioned the potential supply-side or relative price risks, they are always going to exist. for example, we are talking about being inside the inflation target band in the second half of this year, below 3%, and then at 2% of the same time the following year, what is holding this up? we have had to make assumptions around relative price pressures, including shipping costs as an example. but the quarrel of monetary policy is working, we have always been battered by various price shocks. annabelle: i think that goes back to your point about the ability two weather upside surprises to inflation. the risk of those really comes down to new zealand being a major commodity exporter

we will get a right decision from the rbnz -- a right decision from the rbnz. we are seeing a little bit of weakness in the early going off by about a 10th of 1%. at the head of the aussie open we are expecting a softer open of the asx as well. not a lot of movement in the aussie dollar. the rba pulsates rate hike -- caused its rate hike cycle. we may see one more hike from the rba in may. take a look at the y 13169 against the greenback. shery: let's get a little bit more on the latest economic news in the united states. let's bring in our global editor kathleen hays. kathleen, let me start with you. what is the specific data telling us? >> this is a job survey and labor survey. there is loosening up, but it is still tight. fed officials are focused on the type part. job openings fell to 9.9 million. but look how high they remain. before the pandemic, they were averaging around 7000 or 8000. then they spike up because there were so many job openings than people who wanted to go back to work after the pandemic. still pretty high. the vacancy to unemployment rat

here is what he said in a policy statement where the rbnz cap there record low one .3%.etary policy will remain accommodative. numerous uncertainties remain, particularly in respect of the international outlook, and policy may need to adjust accordingly." he has also said that it is just likely that the rbnz could raise its key rate as cut it. the fact that he said that bank would also like to seek a weaker new zealand dollar because that would help their gdp get stronger, you might think he would be ready to cut, but economists don't link so. far away from that 3.5% he would like to see in the second half of the year. no cuts, even though that could help boost new zealand's exports. chance of a move from the philippine central bank today? well, there are two economists who follow this in our recent bloomberg news survey who are looking for a rate increase, but 19 others say no way, and that is the majority few when it comes to the philippines. bank is keeping the therate at 3%, but it is first time it has not been ironclad unanimous since 2014. let's look at a chart, th

." >> the rbnz raises rates by 75 basis points as inflation swirls. in the u.s. officials reiterate their focus is on tackling price pressures. we get the minutes today. sam bankman-fried apologist to staff after financial buffers plummet by $51 million. sequoia says sorry to investors for backing ftx but defends its vetting process. plus credits sees a fourth-quarter loss for the wealthy management unit. -- credit suisse c is a fourth-quarter loss for the wealth management unit. manus: 10% in assets under management. the bigger shakeup in the tree on markets is the fact that the rbnz is talking about 100 basis points of a hike. what does that do as we get the minutes from the fomc in terms of resetting the tone about how rates -- here is a snapshot of risks. russell hardy record supplies b around $60 from russian bitcoin bounces back. kiwi rates is really where you are seeing this monster rise in rates on the back of this hawkish tone and 100 basis point narrative. that has not prevailed across the rest of the global bond markets yet. tom: for the moment at leas

rbnz kept rates on hold. world's biggest asset ,anager is betting on beijing 2016 will be good for china and investors will be sorry they are not there. do follow me on twitter @rishaadtv, and don't forget to include #trendingbusiness. china, hong kong markets underway in 30 minutes. let's have a look at what is happening. the day after the fed, and asian markets are liking the sense of patients conveyed in that policy announcement. snapping three days of declines for most of these markets, , i continued rebound in crude oil as well as basic materials. gains, the extending kiwi dollar surging since the fed left policy rates on hold. 225, ahead of the boj announcement. 56% expect some form of additional stimulus coming be furtherether that cuts into negative rates, etf of lying, or potentially negative rates for loans, which means lenders will be paid by the central bank to lend. ,traight times index up malaysia adding negativity to the regional look at the moment. let's take a look at some earnings stock reac

the rbnz hiking a record signaling a higher peak great next year. new covid curves in shanghai and shenzhen, as cases surge short of a daily record. rishaad: we do have asian equities, some good earnings supporting the s&p, the likes of best buy, other companies as well, abercrombie & fitch helping to lift the town. new zealand is on the way down. we still have a little bit of underperformance by chinese equities as we get these fresh numbers. shanghai asking new arrivals to stay away from public venues, including restaurants, for five days. the city trying to insulate itself from a nationwide surgeon the coronavirus. it is really forcing authorities to resort to tougher restrictions. the market on the way down. yvonne: i mean, it is the hawkish comments we heard from the central bank. we expect to hear more in the press conference happening any minute now. when the rest of the world is talking about slowing down the pace of fed tightening soon, yes, they will continue on this inflation fight, but the rbnz and is saying their work is not done yet. t

in just 24 hours, we will speak to the rbnz governor. to catch that conversation on thursday at 9:30 a.m. this is bloomberg. ♪ shery: time for morning calls. australian equities are becoming a preferred destination for wall street strategists as growth slows around the world. strategists from the likes of goldman sachs and morgan stanley and citigroup have upgraded australian or touted them among top picks. the australian benchmark has outperformed by 10% this year. we'll be watching the market opens in one hour's time. investors looking from shelter-- for shelter. they are buying into cash cows, etf assets. they have ballooned to $5.6 billion on inflows every week so far this year. the top holdings include multiple energy mains, haidi. haidi: let's get a quick check. of glencore has admitted to a decade of market manipulation. the u.s. regulators say the offenses took place from 2007 through to 2018. glencore agreed to plead guilty to charges including burglary, corruption and price me feel asian. -- the first quarter revenues -- barely

the kiwi is fluctuating after the rbnz hiked by another 50 basis points.et reaction from juliette saly in singapore. juliette: a 60 basis point hike and it was a slightly more hawkish tone from the rbnz. it is up from the three point 95%. and striking a hawkish tone even though he announced and alluded to the fact that the higher prices are going to start to hurt household spending. let's a could what we're seeing in the currency reaction, you mentioned the kiwi fluctuating. it did initially spike higher against the dollar and the aussie after the rate decision, a get back some of those gains but now were up by about .2%. traders saying it will sell out before the decision and on the back was slightly -- elsewhere it's a two month high for asian stocks so we're seeing some pretty good gains coming through and were looking ahead to the big one, tencent expecting to see its first ever quarter of negative growth. analysts have knocked their forecast down about 21% from the peak in 2021. dani: now to the u.s., where retail sales and minutes of the july fed mee

claudio, i was going to ask you about the rbnz, but let's start with the renminbi.he pboc stand out of the way or are they engendering weakness in the currency? i think they are blessing weakness in the currency. we saw in the monday open, holding below the seven level, 6.99 level and it was the fixing on monday that gave the blessing that we can go higher and it was followed by a statement by the pboc that this was in response to growing protectionism and the rise in tariffs. it was sanctioned as an offset with the potential of tariffs going higher. rishaad: how can the u.s. response to this? can they respond to it? what do they have in their armory? claudio: there are a number of things. there is the september 1 deadline in escalation. a further 300 billion. last weekend, wilbur ross was in latin america saying as soon as this week, we could have the rulings with regard to u.s. applications to trade with huawei being announced this week. we will have to see what happens to those rulings, which shows china has taken a gamble and lost some degree of confidence that

in july, in may, the rbnz thought at 5.5%. and mind you, that's still above where the federal reserve is, that this would probably be enough. and of course, there's two sides of the coin since then. you can see that that chart showing where the rba nz now and again the idea they're going to hold and we there have been signs of weakness in the economy. you know, manufacturing down for the fifth month in a row and more. this is the kind of thing that bolsters this case. house prices are down et cetera. on the other hand, inflation, if you look at that, is only down to about 6% on a yearly rate. so the target is 1 to 3%. so that is looking kind of sticky in the latest survey from the rbnz, cpi is supposed to get down to 5.3 by the end of this year and even down to 2.83 by the end of 2024. but it's inflation expectations at 2.70%. maybe that is a good sign. and that's what they're watching very closely because we have seen an uptick recently in inflation expectations themselves, not just the survey, which suggests that that is sti

up next, a conversation with the president of rbnz on monetary policy. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> markets are somehow doing the job of the central bank. >> they will probably respond to this. >> the fed will have to be really cautious and what they do and figure out how to navigate this. caroline: how the situation ukraine affects the broader monetary policy picture. the reserve bank in new zealand raised interest rates for third straight meeting and the rbnz set to take an even more hawkish stance in the year had to contain inflation. kathleen hays is standing by with a very special guest. kathleen: adrian or is the governor of the reserve bank of new zealand, joining us now from wellington. very important time in many ways. certainly your decision to speed up rate hikes reverberated not just through the new zealand market but through global markets. in the last 24 hours we have seen russia invade ukraine and really start a war against them. oil prices have surged, commodity prices look like they will keep rising. is this something that could potentially a

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benjamin from jp morgan wasn't really expecting much nuance from the rbnz.have a preference to be silent, then strike hard and fast. it has historically been a bit of a roller coaster ride. even by that standard, what's going on now does stand out. haslinda: say what you want, new zealand has become a gold standard for other central banks as well. yes it's a small country but when it comes to policy, it does punch above its weight and size. dan: there's a lot of history here. the 90's into thousands were characterized by a shift in many economies toward central-bank independence and buttressing that independence was a formal inflation policy, generally with a two minute somewhere. new zealand was the first. they liked to remind people of that. they are very proud of that. all through the 90's, you couldn't go to any conference or listen to any speech by a central banker without some reference to inflation targeting which drew in a comparison with new zealand. when that trend was in place, it was the gold standard. it's become a little bit squishy or. chris l

after the pause from the rba and the rbnz hiking, it is touching go what the rbi will do.re that they will hike 25 basis points, but they could pause moving forward. that will be the key question. that is what we are watching today. markets are not sitting on the sidelines today as well. haslinda: that's right. as you said what we are coming down to the market open in india in two minutes. rbi front and center. we are watching adani shares that have recovered some losses as of late. if you look at the flagship shares, down 46% since january. taking a look at premarket, positive territory. adani power up 0.60%. adani transmission higher by almost 3%. this is pre-market. big day for india, especially on the back of the rbnz and rba, it does seem like we are some diversions. and it comes to the rba, ed has the property sector front and center, so -- it has the property sector front and center. central banks around the world party much between a rock and a hard place. yvonne: yep, and getting harder. we had the oil shock earlier this week and now we have the central bank diver

why so much uncertainty willunding what the rbnz do?hing to see bits appear ahead of this decision, clearly a lot of uncertainty in the market, after that r.b.a. hold yesterday. twoi think there are schools of thought on the rbnz, having adopted bias in march, there's expectation the governor will want to get on with the job. domestic data the last few weeks soft so he's been delivered the conditions he needs to justify pulling the cut trigger. on the other hand, the economy is not in bad shape. growth has slowed but it's still above 2% and as we saw from the yesterday, there's an equal argument to sit on your hands and wait and see what happens. urgency to bel cutting rates. is the r.b.a.'s decision to hold have any implications for the rbnz? matt: it shows there's no urgency there. paradoxically, if you want to get stimulus into your economy, you want to get a lower and boost that inflation outlook, you want to be doing it when you're one of banks, notentral when everyone else is doing the be thatng so it could it's delivered the rbnz

ahead, we speak to the head of the rbnz governor -- the rbnz, and whether -- on whether the inflation dragon has been slain. this is wilbur. ♪ -- for financial insights from merrill. is he hailing a ride to the concert hall? no. he's making sure his portfolio and retirement plans work in harmony. they want to adopt a child and build a new home. so they're talking numbers with their merrill adviser. she's not researching her next role. she's learning how to handle market ups and downs without the drama. personalized advice so impressive your money never stops working for you with merrill. a bank of america company. 76% of 23andme health customers surveyed reported taking healthier working foactions.th merrill. because they know health isn't just a future state. health happens now. start your dna-powered health journey today with personalized insights from 23andme. >> let's take a look at corporate stories, jd.com's u.s. trading shares fail -- felt after they changed -- they change their merchandise. profitability of the core retail missed estimates as they boosted marketing expenses to

one of the precursors to what were seeing is the rbnz. david: taking the dollar down and then dropping it. live pictures from the press briefing, they kept their rates unchanged but it's really the guidance and no cuts in price. rishaad: they are wary of ongoing inflation pressures, well, i should hope so. yvonne: i was impressed with how they've come back the last few months. that's something we are watching very closely. that briefing just started a few minutes ago. david: on top of all that, this movement seen in the rates market, now price for 100 basis points. the term premium is completely gone, we thought it was back. some of these futures for example at record highs, and i actually suspect markets have swung too much the other way on this. kiwi style qe. rishaad: let's get back to what we are really talking about, mood music coming out of the federal reserve and the federal reserve governor speaking, bill ackman all weighing in with their views. >> i am increasingly confident that policy is currently well-positioned to slow the ec

later on daybreak asia, we speak to the rbnz governor adrian or. let's get to annabelle for the markets in asia. annabelle: we are focusing at what we are seen in the kiwi bond space. yields move in a little bit higher following the decision yesterday. the rbnz indicating inflation could take a little higher. one more rate hike may be needed. the question revolving around how long do rates need to stay elevated. the key rate in new zealand could be at 5.5% until 2025. in the equity space, futures will open in the red. kiwi stocks online to the downside. we have been watching the moves in the japanese yen. we are above the level the dollar again crossed in september when intervention first started. while above that at this point. the question is whether intervention risk is on the horizon. anything that will lead to meaningful appreciation of the japanese yen will need to be an exit away from the negative rates. we have seen a lot of currencies depreciate amid the dollar strength over the course of this month so perhaps the boj are unlikely to act j

the governor are the -- of the rbnz says we have a bit part in this. government is taking steps to deal with the hot housing market. m optimistic report definitely a lot of caution. a lot of governments realize if -- inflation isÁsurging. what h}h$}h$appens when we get r away from the pandemic? å&shery: kathleen hays with everything to watch across asian central banks. imim promises must be matched with real auction. we will have more from the cop26 climate summit in moscow. -- glascow. >> to cut down methane gas emissions. this is the second largest contributor to climate change. countries that agree and sign onto the pledge will promise to cut down methane gas emissions from 2020 levels come 2030. as usual, the devil is in the details. we see countries like russia, india, china, they have not signed onto this proposal. this is where the heads of state and political figures go home and it's time for the negotiators to do all the work behind the scenes. to see whether or not this will yield real results by the end of next week. this is now about the te

we also had the rate cut from the rbnz. it was not completely unexpected, but we are getting this line from the governors saying they considered cutting 50 basis points today, but the consensus was for 25 percent. we have new zealand making an abrupt pivot to easing. to what degree do you think the country might be a canary in the rates coal mine? >> normally, they are not considered the canary in the coal mine. i think there are a couple of central banks who are, but i think what the rbnz has done is really underscoring the situation you see in the developed markets, which had an expansionary economy, and you definitely are looking at a slowdown which will more it rate cuts. you have seen how the expectations of a 50 basis point cut by the fed have risen from a very low level two weeks ago to know about 15%. i think we are in a monetary easing cycle, but i would not necessarily say that new zealand is going to drive that or that they will be the canary in the coal mine, so to speak. avril: what are you expecting from the f

tom: thank you very much with the preview there of the rbnz. japanese yen. wto meets in abu dhabi, it's happening, the eu's trade to -- trade chief says they need to reserve rule-based trade. starting with the discussion that he's been having there with chinese officials. quex my focus was the decision where china's minister of commerce. focusing our discussions on wto ministerial confidence. obviously we will work with our bilateral trade issues. ask commissioner, just dig into that a little bit. when we talk about progress, because you have been a bit critical about the u.s. and china and that geopolitical spac having an impact more broadly on trade, what does progress in look like at the end of this conference? kwuex we are currently in a more geopolitical situation than we were before. it's growing tendencies towards protectionism. so, we need to adjust all of this. we need to preserve the role of the wto and rules-based multilateral system. it is the most favored nation principle, which is behind much of the resilience, which you are seeing in global tr

rbnz did, when steven major uses that phrase, in other words, what the rbnz and the rba does come andhey did plenty today. they complained about the strength, they added qe of the said that by foreign actors, that's the benchmark and rewrites the narrative for central banks globally. that's a proposition i put to you this morning. good morning. nejra: exactly, increasing qe talk of negative rates has move the kiwi, it's the worst performing gtech currency against the dollar. you can see the kiwi there on the first market board, but also i want to highlight what's happening in gold, collapsing below $1900 an ounce after the biggest drop in seven years yesterday. consensus seems to be saying it was that jumping real yields which actually was led by what we saw in the tenure, jumping six basis points, the most since june, partly on economic optimism but also in anticipation of record supply coming through this week. he talked about the curve steepening, we certainly saw that as well. in terms of what happened in the equity markets, we're seeing some red on the screen in asia today. yeste

were looking at a 92% chance ont the rbnz takes it down august 11.resting to see how they control speculation in the property market. let's see how all this plays out. asia looking like this, up about 6/10 of 1%, highest level so far this year. not bad given all the challenges for the global economy. rishaad: thank you, david. let's look at how china has managed to weaken its currency -- so muchting much as a squeak out of its trading rivals. it has triggered cries of market manipulation and interference. g20 finance meeting taking place this weekend, they don't seem to be worried about the yuan anymore. it is a curious situation. when china last hosted the g-20, there was concerned that china was planning a steep device wishon and global markets were on the edge. all forward, and the yuan 3% against the dollar, 6% against the basket. ase people have described it a stealth device way should, but there is no finger wagging. there therestory is is so much money around the world, so china is going into this g-20 as the chair and a comfortable position.

the white line is the rbnz official cash rate. low in march of 2020 and now with inflation, the turquoise line, it is back above 3%. home prices in august up nearly 26% annualized rate. a red hot housing market. that is why they were ready to do a 50 basis point hike in august until the government locked down economy because of the outbreak. they had to wait. we spoke with the governor of the rbnz and asked about october. he said they will be watching inflation and jobs and it was definitely a live meeting. >> we retained the right but not the obligation to move policy when we think is necessary. >> they are expected to do a 25 point basis hike. the 50 point basis hike is no longer on the table. our team says they will wait. the virus is taking a toll and they will signal a rate hike in november. shery: we only have a few minutes to find out. kathleen hays with a preview of that decision. the world is seeing the first energy crisis of the transition, and it will not be the last. how much of this energy crisis has to do with the gr

the kiwi dollar jumping to recovery after the rbnz came through with the 50 basis point hike. the bank of new zealand saying that these rallies are really opportunities to sell, given the poor growth outlook for the rest of the world. sydney futures looking pretty flat at the moment. also watching dollar-yen, just over 127 to the dollar. the latest fed, minutes making it crystal clear that there is consensus for 50-basis point rate hikes in the next couple of minutes. meantime, china's economic prospects for 2022 keep dimming. joining us now is kathleen hayes, enda curran, and andreea papuc. will start with the fed minutes. the fed pause in play here. what do you think might happen for future policy moves? clean: it depends on inflation, that is the message here. the idea is to frontload rate hikes. they have confirmed from the minutes and may 4, and meanwhile, jay powell said likely more 50-basis point rate hikes in the next two meetings. other fed officials have echoed it. so now it is crystal clear that this is what they are planning to do. all of them said they need to mov

we think the risks are balanced. >> the governor from rbnz talking about patience.ng to india's elections, parties are accusing each other of illegal spending as authorities seize ballistic goods in a crackdown. let's bring in our reporter from delhi. why is the amount of money spent , legal or illegal, on an indian election so very high? >> is basically the size of the electorate. you have hundreds of millions of people you are trying to where you -- trying to woo to get the votes. more than 950 million people and political parties have to get the voters to come to rallies and spend -- and they have to spend money on ad campaigns and every other kind of publicity campaign and in india a lot of the money that is spent is not accounted for. a very small percentage, less than 5% of the actual money spent, is declared. so it is actually about trying to get out the word and paying all of it with cash, liquor, gold, drugs, whatever works. >> what does it mean for a party to use unaccounted money to fund a campaign? >> india is still a significant cash-based economy so a

we'll be watching the rbnz rate decision, of course, quite closely. said, no change expected, but still the kiwi dollar in focus on that. aussie stocks online to the downside and we're watching brant crude fractionally higher as we get trading underway but traders really caught kathleen it's that story of shrinking inventories. but then on the other side, you've got that story of china demand. and we've been discussing across these hours just how much malaise is seeping into the chinese economy, not just from loan demand, shrinking exports, but other factors that that activity data yesterday. certainly a lot for investors to be weighing there as well. the push pulled away there. let's move on to our next guest saying he's underweight on emerging markets in japanese equities. and the other side of that is he's overweight us stocks. karen calder, head of equity research for asia at joining us now. so, karen, i just have to start with some big news in the last 24 hours, actually, all week, lots of big news every 24 hours. but us retail sales stronger tha

we have the rbnz decision coming up next.every day in business brings something new. so get the flexibility of the new mobile service designed for your small business. introducing comcast business mobile. you get the most reliable network with nationwide 5g included. and you can get unlimited data for just $30 per line per month when you get four lines or mix and match data options. available now for comcast business internet customers with no line-activation fees or term contract required. see if you can save by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities. >> it is not :00 a.m. in beijing and shanghai. welcome to bloomberg markets china open. >> we are counting down to the open of trade. let's get to the top stories. >> the biggest gain in two weeks as china joins the u.s. and other nations in a coordinated release of reserves. >> investors awaiting a likely rate hike. we will get tha

this of course as we continue to watch the rbnz.r are coming on the show and talking about their decision to keep wrench marks on hold but also bringing forecasts for higher interest rates. sydney futures at the moment looking higher. this on the back of the longest losing streak since october. nikkei futures unchanged. we saw a slight gain on the s&p 500 in the new york session. coming up in the next hour, we speak to emily wise of state street for her market strategy plus bloomberg equality, focusing on the future of women in afghanistan. we will be speaking with an associate professor. this is bloomberg. ♪ haidi: very good morning. i am haidi stroud-watts in sydney. we are counting down to asia's major market opens. shery: i am shery ahn in new york. welcome to "daybreak asia." a choppy wall street session. the virus and taper talk way on the economic outlook. commodities feel the pain of china's credit tightening. copper heading for its worst week in two months. adrian orr tells

the rbnz is forecasting a recession, whereas the rba is forecasting a couple of years of weak growth. the u.s. trying to figure out where the federal reserve will go when it comes to rate hikes. what can we expect from payroll data and how that will contribute to the narrative we are seeing with treasury yields plunging again in that standoff against the fed? >> we had a drumbeat of weak data this week coming out of the u.s.. with jobless claims, job cuts, and now with the private sector jobs report from adp coming out overnight, and finally services pmi. the survey of how the services industry is doing also coming in weaker than expected. with all of that as a backdrop, even a really strong payrolls report might be seen as something of a lagging indicator, and more of the sort of thing if the fed response to this rather than the rest of the data and goes on in hikes, they risk a policy error that will make even slow down even worse that will potentially cement a recession for the u.s., and quite possibly a tough one. that is why we saw 10 year yields hit fresh lows, we have seen the

haidu: matthew there with a preview of the rbnz in the coming hours.e latest crypto crackdown is ending up, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ kathleen: let's get a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. in abby has emerged as the front runner for citigroup's retail assets. said to be in advanced stages, valued at more than one big and. an agreement would make it australia's second-biggest biggest credit card player. it added that discussions would not necessarily lead to a deal. reports of trademark application forb couponiz. it could launch a brand focusing on small business operators. the stock has climbed about 15% in three days and has gained 31% since it debuted in march. the dow jones reporting and into talks after the founder change their minds about a sale. some employees are said to have thought the company would be a strange fit for efficiencies. the wall street journal reported the two sides were discussing a deal whose value range from 15-20,000,000,000 dollars, including debt. and the biggest dam return since 2010 on the rally in glo

we are joined this hour by the rbnz governor, adrian or. -- orr. haidi: let's take a quick look at markets. we saw that exuberance over the moderna vaccine progress really dissipate quickly. we saw the late session swing when it comes to trading in the u.s. as it has concerns over the efficacy data from moderna causing some concern. take a look at the futures in asia. we are seeing downside when it comes to futures trading in japan, australia, and hong kong, although we are looking at a little bit more of a positive open when it comes to trading on the mainland, and just also keeping an eye when it comes to energy markets as well given that we are starting to see backwardation between that june and july contract for the wti, suggesting some of the storage issues have started to ease. let's take a deeper look at the markets. investors are increasingly debating whether the broader stock market has become disconnected from the fundamentals. if we look closer, the sectors can tell a different story but the view from the president of pence wealth manage

new zealand bond yields rising as well ahead of a cash rate decision from the rbnz.ek, we are expecting to see the rate raise to 1.2 5% from 1%. we have plenty more to come on daybreak. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ shery: here is a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. india's company has received environmental clearance for an $8.6 billion plan -- facing protests. activists are citing concerns over pollution and the diversion of land away from agriculture. gsw -- jsw says it set aside funds for environmental protection. a coffee company completed the restructuring of its financial debt, emerging from chapter 15 bankruptcy proceedings. that means it is no longer subject to insolvency proceedings in any jurisdiction. the ceo says he is confident the luckin coffee will have growth. rising labor costs weighed on profits in the fourth quarter. net income rose 7.4% to 1.2 billion dollars, missing average analyst estimates. a talent crunch is making it harder for i.t. companies like tcs to attract workers, increasing costs and weighing on margins. paul:

we are looking to adrian, the head of the rbnz speaking on what this means.ld be more support for the kiwi dollar. plenty more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> from the heart of where innovation, money, and power collide, in silicon valley and beyond, this is "bloomberg technology" with emily chang. ♪ emily: i'm emily chang in san francisco, this is "bloomberg technology." coming up, the washington dc attorney general slaps amazon with an antitrust suit, accusing

the ecb goes for a light touch, what will the rbnz do?you look at the pboc versus christine lagarde, i am surprised the euro has not moved lower. in many ways, it was a reiteration of what we already knew. for her, it was about what shape does the clearer and crisper guidance take from the ecb? and powell speak later this week. it is a big week. dani: as dane said, the euro path and so much in em is dependent on the dollar. the dollar is looking more uncertain. powell, that will be hugely important for determining where the euro goes, it is stuck at about 118. manus: she might do a bit of readjustment over the summer. to the markets. jay powell will speak, you will get the rbnz. we had triple records on friday across the u.s. the s&p 500 down by two tens of 1% today. as we going to earnings season, banks and tech in focus. looking at revenue rises of between 30% and 50% across the banks. the collapse in yield is running into a little bit of a brick wall. have we reached a sense of exhaustion in terms of pricing a slowdown in the global ec

kiwi stocks a bit on the back foot after that rbnz decision yesterday.nnabelle: and as you said, it is this waiting game we have for the key u.s. inflation print coming up in about 24 hours. here is the picture for u.s. futures as they come online. a bit of weakness creeping in, similar to what we had in the intraday session. traders are reading that key u.s. inflation print. ahead of that we had the revision downward to u.s. gdp at the end of last year, but that data is kind of seen as pretty much uneventful by a lot of investors in the market. still, this core pce reading could highlight the very bumpy path that the fed faces to achieving its 2% target. what else are we tracking the session? you can see bitcoin, we have been tracking it over the course of this week, past the $60,000 mark. earlier it touched $64,000 in the u.s. session. it is that supply-demand dynamic. . more demand, investors parlayed into the spot bitcoin etf's. so that is the trading set up in this session today. but it is really that focus on the fed that we are also tracking this

rbnz already said if things it has done enough in that battle.dd we are also watching when it comes to any reaction from the aussie dollar given we are looking at a decidedly risk off mood at this point in time, kathleen. kathleen: the ecb governing councilmember mario santana says core inflation is coming down faster that it went up and is confident prices have peaked. he spoke to bloomberg's caroline connan a-day simran wants economic conference. mario: we have to keep an eye on all items of inflation and poor inflation stands out as -- core inflation stands out as a very important educator as well. you are right. it is not coming down as fast as headline inflation. but, we also need to remember that in the way you have it, it places the same trajectory. so, we need to remain confident about our way to -- the way we are fighting inflation. caroline: you remain confident you may have reached the peak? mario: all indicators say so. for this to happen we need to keep monetary policy very clear. we have increased interest rates for 400 basis points

the rbnz has fallen through with a very aggressive tightening cycle.uestion today will be what happens when the bank of korea, will they hike again or perhaps be the first to stand pat? >> the expectation seems to be that they will actually stand pat. our next guest expects the bank of korea to be the first mention -- major central bank deposit on rakes -- rates. kathleen, always great to have you. the expectation right now seems to be that the bok will downgrade growth forecasts given the challenges that the economy faces. how tricky will the messages be for the bok not to tell markets that they are going to cut immediately? >> you are exactly right. we are expecting a hawkish hold this morning. we do see a no change decision at 3.5%. at the same time, we see one or two dissenters who were still call for a hike. that is likely to be diluted down because of the growth forecast that's likely to be revised downward towards 1.6 or even 1.5. that should message to the market that the bok is unlikely to continue hiking from here. haidi: you are pointing at

we expect a 20 -- 25 basis point cut in august, and -- august from the rbnz.sis point cut from the rba. rate cutsluding to complicates matters for the central banks. we saw the ecb move last week and now the rbnz indicating that rates would need to go lower before they go higher again. the rbnz have highlighted global risks, and it is key that these currencies can lean in to some u.s. dollar weakness, and the reason for that is because domestically, investment was highlighted by the rbnz and it is concerning to us that business confidence has been week for some time. we have a forecast for the kiwi dollar of around 65, and a forecast for the aussie dollar around 68. but we still have a euro-dollar -- euro strengthening against the u.s. dollar over the next 12 months. we think the antipoverty and deanencies -- antipo currencies will stay relatively weak themselves. with regard to positioning, it is very short for the new zealand dollar as well as the aussie dollar. you have to remember, when you think about why is it short, the traders are picking up carry here

it should be said the rbnz already indicated that they do plan to keep rates on hold.y are done with tightening for now. enough work has been done to bring down price pressures but that is the market reaction so far. shery: imf managing director -- china's gdp to grow 5% this year and says beijing has a policy space to push for stimulus. she spoke exclusively to haslinda amin from the g20 finance ministers meeting in india. >> what we are predicting for china is growth. this is way better than where they were last year. last year, for the first time in four decades, china grew less than the global economy on average. from 3% last year, they are climbing up. growth is slower than is necessary. consumer confidence is not as strong as it has to be. why? because of the problems in the real estate sector. we also see export from china slowing down because growth in the world economy is slowing down. demand for manufacturing products from china is slowing down. what can china do about it? our recommendation is first, china can encourage, through monetary policy steps, especi

we will be speaking with the rbnz governor adrian orr to talk about what is coming next for the rbnzfter that hawkish hold yesterday. this is bloomberg. ♪ so, what are you thinking? i'm thinking... (speaking to self) about our honeymoon. what about africa? safari? hot air balloon ride? swim with elephants? wait, can we afford a safari? great question. like everything, it takes a little planning. or, put the money towards a down-payment... ...on a ranch ...in montana ...with horses let's take a look at those scenarios. j.p. morgan wealth management has advisors in chase branches and tools, like wealth plan to keep you on track. when you're planning for it all... the answer is j.p. morgan wealth management. haidi: another story we are following, shares of live nation entertainment falling. bloomberg revealing a justice department move seeking a breakup over the business over antitrust violations. the case is related to ticketmaster's unrivaled control of concert ticket sales. the 2010 merger of live nation as well as ticketmaster has been the subject of several antitrust investigations

kiwi herebe long based on that view from the rbnz?n: you can make the case the kiwi will regain some ground. if anything, that view should be expressed against other commodity currencies and the same region, really. i'll see kiwi looks across -- like it is topping out. so a return of demand for the new zealand dollar could indeed push it lower from current levels. comments also come to highlight how much of a struggle for any central bank from here would be the consideration of negative rates, and equally, how much of an important driver negative rates have become for the currencies, our outlook. to the extent the markets are now repricing the risks of negative rates, that will continue to boost the kiwi, especially against the australian dollar. the other narrative in the past 24 hours has been kudlow telling us the trade deal is not dead between the u.s. and china. many people have questioned the veracity of that trade deal anyway. and then you have the chinese lashing out at the australians. many people say the chinese are pinned i

haidi: how strong is the pressure for the rbnz to cut sooner? diana: i don't think there is pressure on them now because when you look at the broad-based economic figures, i don't think anything is really signaling they need to cut right now. inflation is still too high year in australia. -- here in australia but i think that by the time we get to the middle of the year things will look quite different because the labor market will weaken and labor market strength was one reason why china's economy held up a lot better last year. despite the fact interest rates went up and inflation was higher consumers were able to offset the weakness in purchasing power with a strong earnings growth from being employed and i think that will change. we see unemployment rising to 4.5% i the middle of the year. it is 3.9%. and the consumer picture will look a lot weaker in a few months. but as we stand now, there is not any pressure on the rba to cut interest rates. haidi: it's a big political year both with conflicts ongoing and elections, indonesia heading to t