aaron david miller explains, next. my personal financial psychic, i'm sure you know what this meeting is about. yes, a raise. i'm letting you go. i knew that. you see, this is my amerivest managed... balances. no. portfolio. and if doesn't perform well for two consecutive gold. quarters. quarters...yup. then amerivest gives me back their advisory... stocks. fees. fees. fees for those quarters. yeah. so, i'm confident i'm in good hands. for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this. >>> innocentenia howard is about to arrive in the u.s. in about 30 minutes. he outlined the purpose for the visit bev israel. >> translator: i'm leave for want for a fateful, even historic mission. i feel like i'm the messenger of all of israeli citizens even those who don't agree with me. for the entire jewish people i'm deeply worried about the security of all of israel ace citizens and about the fate of the nation and the fate of our people. i will do everything in my power to ensure our future. >>> this morning senator fei

aaron david miller is the vice president of new initiatives. , good to see you. >> good to see you, too. >> most of the polls echo that four-seat margin that we were talking about that he needs to make up. is there anything he can do in the next couple of days or at this rally tonight that you would think might help him gain some momentum? >> what he has been doing is making it unmistake bli who his base is. if they don't go to the lekou, the next prime minister will be isaac herzog. from the right that's not a good development. so we're in for the last several days. 1/5 of the israeli electorate, 1/5 is probably undecided. i'm not making any predictions. the last time i predicted it which was in 1996. bill clinton invited simon perez to the white house. most of us were persuaded that netanyahu would never become the prime minister of israel. now with the except of david bengorian, he's the third longest running prime minister in israeli history. >> if there is a change, what might happen with the american/israeli relationship if netanyahu loses

earlier i speak with aaron david miller from the woodrow wilson school for scholars. we spoke about whether benjamin netanyahu speech will change anything. i asked how mr. netanyahu can criticize a dies that hasn't been made yet. >> it's easy to do preventive diplomacy. i think that's one of the prime minister's objectives. i think he believes and the israelis are persuaded, i suspect, that they know enough and the arc of the deal from their point of view is running the wrong direction. too many loopholes for the iranians in terms of enrichment perhaps not a long enough period with respect to the durability of an agreement. so i think the details are less important than the politics right now, and the politics given the prime minister's conviction that this is a bad deal -- put it this way, there are no good deals, and such a deal is imminent. the politics given how strongly he feels about the demand an effort to preempt, prevent marshal congressional support, and to some degree american public opinion. >> and it also seems, though, an effort to him any kind of deal.

. >> aaron david miller is a distinguished scholar at the aaron wilson center and former adviser to six secretaries of state on the arab israeli peace process. pick up on the last part of what rula had to say commenting on the tom friedman piece and the reality of what a one-state might mean. >> i think we're really getting ahead of ourselves, michael. first of all, the one state is not a solution. perhaps it would be an historic outcome years and years as a consequence of israel's retention of the territories, no effective palestinian governance there. events on the ground for a comprehensive israeli withdrawal as well as israelis from the west bank impossible. but we're getting a head of ourselves here. if double reports that defive are john kerry's 14-month effort to create the parameters for a two-state solution prime minister of israel despite his public walk-away, which he is now walking back parentally has made some far-reaching concessions on the issue of israeli withdrawal based on the june '67 borders with various land swaps. whether you'd get back to that brokered mediated pr

also we have a senior middle east investigator for obama and aaron david miller is now at the woodrow wilson international center. have you ever seen anything like this before? you served in the united states congress. you were a legislative aide in the congress. 50 or 60 members of the congress would not be attending a speech by a visiting prime minister of israel? that's pretty awful. >> usually hundreds of members of congress don't attend these speeches. >> not because they're protest protesting the guest. >> president obama elevated this speech by objecting to it. when he objected to it it made it a partisan event. if he said, fine anybody can give a speech. we wouldn't be tuned in the way we are right now and democrats wouldn't have to boycott. it's a shame. israel has been bipartisan. israel needs to be bipartisan. this going to expose some of the rifts in the democratic party when it comes to support for israel. the substance is more important than politics of who is there. judgments american people will make about threats from iran is what we need to hear from this speech. >>

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joining me now is aaron david miller who served as negotiator and adviser on middle east peace under both republican and democratic administrations. it does seem he's trying to put a completely different context on those comments preelection comments and election day comments about a palestinian state. >> i mean i've heard the prime minister in many different incarnations, this was not campaign netanyahu. this clearly was governance netanyahu. he sought to explain with some measure of contrition in some of his comments. benjamin netanyahu has principles but one of them is tremendous flexibility and the absence of principle when in fact it suits his needs and conception of israel's security needs. would it surprise me if you could -- if you had a peace process at some point in which palestinian statehood with the kinds of conditions he initially imposed way back in 2009 once again became the frame of reference? absolutely not. let's be clear, andrea i wauxed the u.s./israeli relationship for many years. it's been dysfunctional under reagan and carter and somewhat dysfunctional under c

. >> aaron david miller in the back had a question. >> fascinating presentation. graham wood argued in his atlantic piece, i think that defeating isis requires defeating the idea of the caliphate. that is to say, you demonstrate that there are natural limits to isis' expansion, and you try to accentuate the contradictions of governance. failure to provide services, accentuate conflicts between foreign fighters and locals. there's been a lot of media reporting that isis is weakening. i mean, do you have any way to evaluate and assess whether wood is right in his initial analysis? and second, whether or not these internal contradiction cans are actually appearing, and are they significant? thanks. >> thank you. identity is very important to isis, and we have to always understand that every member of isis has to comply with sort of ideology that isis endorses. it's ideology that the top leaders believe in. it's the kind of theory, you know radicalism where, you know like members believe in the ex-communication of muslims and the very narrow definition of who a muslim

. >> aaron david miller thank you so much. >> thank you. >>> coming up we have more great guests he is one of the most outspoken sport commentators on television but this time he's making waves on race and politics. espn's stephen a. smith joins me to explain why he thinks every black person in america should vote republican. plus fraternities under fire after a wave of scandals at campuses across the country. naomi wolf joins me to talk about the future of fraternities. and kareem abdul-jabbar explains why he thinks starbucks stepped into the brew this week. in my world, wall isn't a street. return on investment isn't the only return i'm looking forward to. for some every dollar is earned with sweat, sacrifice, courage. which is why usaa is honored to help our members with everything from investing for retirement to saving for college. our commitment to current and former military members and their families is without equal. start investing with as little as fifty dollars. i am totally blind. and sometimes i struggle to sleep at night, and stay awake during the day. this is called non

joining us aaron david miller vice president of new initiatives at the woodrow wilson international centerwashington. joining us from jerusalem, david horovitz editor of "the times of israel." there could be serious changes. what are the biggest changes if herzog were to become the next prime minister of israel? >> i think the biggest beneficiary will be a relatively dramatic change in the u.s./israeli relationship -- >> the relationship with president obama would improve almost overnight. >> and certainly at the top. debbie wasserman schultz is correct. the fundamentals of the relationship are sound but the relationship at the top for the last five years has basically been a soap opera. it's been dysfunctional, very little sense of confidence and trust. and that's going to change because mr. herzog does have a fundamental view that this relationship is basic to israel's security. >> and, david, on the sensitive issue, we'll talk about iran nuclear negotiations in a moment of a palestinian -- two-state solution. the prime minister netanyahu, said yesterday on his watch, there's not going t

michael crowley, aaron david miller, thank you so much being on the show. we appreciate it. take care. >> pleasure. pleasure. >> all right, one day after officials in tunisia said neither of the gunmen in yesterday's museum attack were linked to known terrorist groups. an a ud owe group came out this in which isis claimed responsibility for the attack that led 23 people dead. including 24 tourists. in the wake of the attacks, security forces arrested four people they said were directly linked to the operation. tunisian troops will be deployed as a defensive precaution. outside the bardo museum, tunisians gathered as a show of unity in the fight against terrorism. joining me now is the coauthor of "find fix and finish: inside the count terrorism campaigns that killed bin laden and devastated al qaeda" is aki aki peritz. aki, thank you for being on the the show. >> thanks for having me luke. >> tunisia seems to have been regarding the arab spring sort of this one country where they've been able to progress and it's been sort of the gold standard, if you will of countries that

i want to start calling you professor aaron david miller. >> whatever you do michaela don't call me a, thanks so much we appreciate it. john? >>> you and the professor were talking about the effect of the israeli elections on the negotiations between united states and iran on the nuclear development. those negotiations happening in switzerland, our senior international correspondent nic robertson is there. what's the latest? >> good morning. well the latest is energy secretary earnest monitz is meeting with his sort of iranian counterpart sulahi who is the head of the iranian atomic energy organization. they're talking technical issues but what secretary kerry has said and we've heard repeatedly from the state department, there are still gaps to cross, political decisions that the iranians need to take. but so far, today, secretary kerry has not met with the iranian foreign minister zarif. indeed they're waiting for the outcome of this technical discussion that's going on right now. but earlier on today, zarif, the iran foreign minister took a walk along the waterfront here. i was abl

aaron david miller thanks as always to help us understand the situation a little better. >> always a is in washington trying to stop that deal with iran secretary of state john kerry is in switzerland pushing for a deal. jim sciutto joins us live from switzerland with more. what's the latest jim? >> reporter: for all that drama, all the acrimony back in washington here in switzerland where the talks are taking place, they're accelerating. this is meant to be a meeting at a much lower level, political director level. now you have secretary of state john kerry here and his iranian counterpart in switzerland as well. they're not just going to meet multiple times, meeting through wednesday. they wouldn't do that if they didn't have something to talk about. you are hearing from other state department officials and administration officials, what is in fact a prebuttal to the speech in washington saying he doesn't know what the deal is on the table and many facts are wrong and been wrong before the interim agreement in place since november 2013 has held back iran's nuclear program in a way

a leap of faith that former middle east peace negotiator aaron david miller says is at odds with thats because he thinks the deal is imminent and he has to leave no stone unturned. >> reporter: israel is not the only skeptical ally. saudi arabia also fears that iran's bad behavior, sponsorship of terrorism, destabilization of the middle east is all being overlooked by the u.s. in order to win this historic deal. >> margaret, thanks. >>> well your mouth could be in for a makeover from silicon valley. that may sound strange but it's a more gel more than twice as effective as toothpaste. the man behind a potential breakthrough that could transform the dental care industry. >>> but first, it's 8:06 time to check your local weather. >>> only on "cbs this morning," bao bao saying bye-bye to mom. jan crawford's at the national zoo. jan, what's up? >> well, you know we're getting a behind the scenes look at a moment that's emotional but also essential. we'll see why the panda separation is happening a little sooner than normal. that's next on "cbs this morning." if you have medicare part d, w

aaron david miller advised six secretary of state on the arab/israeli peace process.ran want today? >> you know they're looking for a deal they can defend. one that leaves them with a capacity when the deal is done to maintain a or create an industrial-grade nuclear infrastructure. and ultimately leaves them with the possibility should they want to exercise it of breaking out to acquire a nuclear weapon. they want a deal with dignity, one that creates not just a measure of sanctions relief but demonstrates that these negotiations which have been ongoing, have been worthwhile. have paid off. and above all, i think they want to be treated, whether they deserve to be treated or not this way is another matter as a co-equal. as an emerging great power, at least in the middle east. >> the fear is among critics of this deal that the u.s. is now so politically motivated to make a deal that it will tell stlettle for a lousy deal and give iran too many concessions, do you dpeer that? >> there are no good deals, there are only deals with varying degrees of risk. i know that nego

. >> here to talk about this aaron david miller he is executive vice president of new initiatives andaeli relations in your column. you say while relations are at their worst point ever there are some political game playing going on here. what do you mean by that. >> there's no doubt there's a crisis there's no section of policies policies politics and personalities. it's running about 25 years, it's a continuing wous soap opera. but there is a bit of gamesmanship here and i think most of it occurs on this issue about what to do with the the two-state solution. the fact is that the prime minister of israel is not committed to this. he's not prepared to pay the price and most of his behavior suggests that he's expanding or creating space for it to occur. the administration -- and so he's really not fooling anyone. a walk back from the walk back. >> was there a feeling that he was committed and now revealing not really committed anymore? >> not really hard to believe on this one. benjamin netanyahu's whole sense of identity is not to become the midwife of the creation of a state to divi

. >>> joining us now is aaron david miller who add a vised sex secretaries of state on on the peace process woodrow wilson international with center. good morning. >> pleasure to be here. >> what do you make of the details we have just heard that they are apparently moving closer but tricky issues remain. >> i think that's right. i stopped reading tea leaves when i left the arab/israeli negotiations. there is no way to predict. this is the gameend game in the sense that there will be a ton of issues and a ton of work to do over the next several months. they have to get through this hurdle. that means producing enough to persuade skeptics. the israelis the saudis most of the u.s. congress whether you are a d or an r, hardliners in iran -- although not to be confused with the regime itself. that in effect whatter you are going to get is a sanctions release for a smaller, more transparent, more easily verifiable iranian nuclear program. this isn't a transformation. rather than jump off the cliff we have to understand this is another step in an excruciatingly painful process that's still proven