aaron david miller, senior _ i would argue ever. argue ever. aaron david miller, senior fellow at - i would argue ever. aaron david miller, senior fellow at the - miller, senior fellow at the carnegie endowment for international peace, thank you for assessment, aaron. lebanon says a number of hospitals in the south of the country are out of action. and the un says all 900 government shelters for the displaced are now full. 0ur senior international correspondent 0rla guerin reports from southern lebanon. an escape route from lebanon today, now passable, just, by foot. israel bombed the road overnight, claiming hezbollah were smuggling weapons beneath it. most of those struggling across this border are syrians, escaping lebanon's war to go home to their own. who wouldn't want to escape this? explosions. beirut last night, another massive israeli strike, one mile from the airport. the target — the likely next leader of hezbollah, his fate unknown. day and night, and countrywide, israel is bombing. this is in the south, in tyre. was ther

aaron david miller will be joining us with his insight. this is bloomberg. ♪ i can't believe you corporate types are still at it. just stop calling each other rock stars. and using workday to put finance and h.r. on one platform. tim, you are a rock star. using responsible ai doesn't make you a rock star. it kinda does. you are not rock stars. (clears throat) okay. most of you are not rock stars. oooh. data driven insights, and large language models. oh, that's so rock roll. it is, right. he gets it. yeah. scarlet: this is "bloomberg markets." i am scarlet fu. we are monitoring developments in the middle east against iran 's missile -- following iran's missile strikes. one big topic is how the u.s. will navigate this. we are joined by carnegie endowment for international peace senior fellow aaron david miller. you point out that we have the holiday to begin tonight and yom kippur next week. benjamin netanyahu and joe biden are scheduled to speak. why is this significant? aaron: the israelis have clearly made a decision. it is no secret the

but the trend lines don't look all that good to me. >> aaron david miller, thank you very much. on the subject of the transition and who it might be, let's bring in nbc correspondent yasmin va suingen you've been talking to voters here in america and what aaron is talking about is so important, that there could be a different amount of pressure on israel if kamala harris is elected, than if donald trump is elected. and arab americans you've been speaking to have been saying they don't like kamala harris. wonder if they appreciate that -- the issue between her and him? >> it's interesting because of the question that peter alexander just spoke of with the vice president in asking her to differentiate herself from the and what her presidency would look like. they feel as if kamala harris is in lockstep with president biden when it comes to the policy pertaining to israel and hamas and lebanon as well. i sat down with lebanese voters in dearborn, michigan, and they feel forgotten, like they're being treated as second, third, fourth-class citizens the only time in which politicians

aaron david miller, thank you as well. >>> still ahead, for 366 days they have been held in captivitytive of two children believed to be the youngest of hamas's hostages joins us. >>> one year after the worst attack on jewish people since the holocaust, where israelis stand on benjamin netanyahu. that's a big question. the remaining hostages and the threat of a wider war. >>> and florida is once again directly in the path of a rapidly intensifying hurricane, when milton will make land fall and what the state is doing to prepare. we are back in 90 seconds. i'm not an actor. i'm just a regular person. some people say, "why should i take prevagen? i don't have a problem with my memory." memory loss is, is not something that occurs overnight. i started noticing subtle lapses in memory. i want people to know that prevagen has worked for me. it's helped my memory. it's helped my cognitive qualities. give it a try. i want it to help you just like it has helped me. prevagen. at stores everywhere without a prescription. want a next level clean? swish with the whoa of listerine. it kills 99.9%

i'd like to bring an aaron david miller, former state department middle east go shader and senior fellow at the carnegie endowment for international peace aaron, as always, good to see you when you see you just let's start first with this intelligence leak as we were just hearing from our colleagues, there's kind of a mixed bag of opinion ends on just how serious this is. some us officials say this isn't great, but it's not horrible. other experts say this is a very serious breach with very serious consequences. >> what do you think? documents and can only read which cnn york times were reporting that the images satellite or injury has been described. but it isn't actually pictured in the documents. look, i think by-in-large even if this war is a serious breach, the israelis will adjust and recalibrate whatever plans they had. the purpose of the leak, people leave for any number of reasons based on my experience in a 20 plus year people leak because they want to feel important people leak because they're angry whether this had political motivation in an effort to embarrass the administra

aaron david miller, as always, thank you for your expertise thanks for having me here. and be right back with more news don't let john king have all the fund experienced the cnn magic wall in the palm of your hand, get live results, expert insights, and an immersive election experience. >> the magic wall, fine in a cnn app today. >> you're shipping manager left to find themselves leaving you lost unique to hire. >> i need indeed, indeed you do sponsor jobs on indeed are two-and-a-half times faster first higher visit indeed.com slash higher sure. >> misprint prince business cards. but we also print these and those and agree that we print your brand on every thanks. so customers can notice you remember you and fall in love with you if you need it, we print it with 25% off for new customers at misprint.com, if you're in pain but need to stay mobile, you need copper fit rapid relief. the revolutionary line of hot and cold therapy ramps that keep your mobile while you recover, no matter where it hurts? a breakthrough adjustable designed with a soft gel pac insert in a lightw

i spoke to aaron david miller, seniorfellow at the carnegie endowment for international peace.ard there in that report from lucy, israel now having its third ground war with lebanon, and she was saying there in that report that these wars are hard to end. so what do you think? and i know it's a difficult question, but what do you think israel's endgame is here? the enduame israel's endgame is here? the endgame is — israel's endgame is here? the endgame is clear _ israel's endgame is here? the endgame is clear - _ israel's endgame is here? tue: endgame is clear — to israel's endgame is here? tte: endgame is clear — to push hezbollah, and most of its military infrastructure, north of the litani river, even perhaps further than that, toward the awali, in order to ensure that there are no cross—border incursions by hezbollah forces, or that their high—trajectory weapons cannot, on a daily basis, essentially make life in northern israel intolerable. the problem, of course, is that without a major military intervention, and the capacity to prevent hezbollah�*s return, it seems to me

jeremy diamond is in tel aviv, and former state department middle east negotiator, aaron david miller is also standing by. >> right. let's start with jeremy diamond and tel aviv. jeremy, tell us more about what we're seeing in gaza 7 anniversary, the israeli military is stepping up its operations in gaza once again, for the fourth time over the course of the last year, these really military now beginning to carry out another major offensive in northern gaza in the jabalya refugee camp after it says that hamas off militants have begun to regroup there, it is just the latest instance of the really military being forced to go back into areas that it had previously carried out an offensive in which it said it had cleared. >> but then hamas rebuild speaking of course, two major questions about israel's long-term strategy in gaza and the lack of an alternative hamas governance inside the gaza strip overnight, the israeli military striking more than a dozen targets in jabalya from the air, as well as from artillery strikes to prepare the ground for israeli infantry troops to move in as it is

thank you very much, aaron david miller. thanks to richard engel as well.p with a sky news anchor for a podcast launching tomorrow. listen where you get your podcasts. he has the most interesting and the latest information from the front lines. >>> an explosive new book from bob woodward shining new light on the relationship between netanyahu and joe biden and also between russian leader vladimir putin and former president trump. vaughn hillyard joining us with more on that. vaughn, an unnamed trump aide indicates the former president may have spoken to putin as many as seven times since donald trump left the white house in 2021. there's a denial from trump on truth social about that. what more are you learning? >> let's look at the broad blink -- blanket denial. a spokesman says the stories in this book are made up and they are not true. going on the attack against bob woodward specifically noting that he still has a lawsuit, donald trump does, against bob woodward for releasing the audiotapes of the interviews in 2019 and 2020. you see there, none of thes

. >> aaron david miller. always good to get your perspective. thank you so much.d nations on thursday accused the parties involved in sudan's civil war of using starvation tactics against civilians. this week marks 18 months since the start of the conflict between the sudanese military and the paramilitary support forces erupted, leading to the world's worst humanitarian crisis. in the first half of october, 40,000 people fled their homes leaving 8 million people internally displaced. 97% of those people face severe levels of hunger. the u.s. announced last month a $424 million aid package for sudan and neighboring countries. i asked the u.s. special envoy for sudan about the u.n.'s accusations that the parties are using starvation as a weapon of war. >> sadly we agree completely on the fact that both warring parties are turning food and starvation into a weapon of war. close to 20 million people facing acute hunger and starvation. we have been able to get some key routes open to humanitarian aid. we are getting three or four trucks a day through. one place with o

let's go ahead and speak with aaron david miller when you hear this news what are the things that will happen next? because there are a lot of questions if it is true that the israeli military has taken out the leaf leader of hamas, yahya sinwar. then what happens next? and what needs to be worried about, for example, the hostages and the war itself yeah, thanks for having this the middle east, i don't usually believe in game game-changers are inflection points. they have been ground up in the daily grind of this conflict. >> well, this is a big rock dropped in a lake and the ripples are quite extraordinary if, if and secretary blinken thing is right. >> yeah, history and why was the preeminent palestinian decision maker responsible for the terrorist surge of october 7. it flicking a degree of cruelty in pain on israeli civilians on precedent in the israeli palestinian conflict. then the question becomes, if he is the pre-eminent decision maker who, who ultimately will make decisions on so many issues who is going to essentially plan hamas's military strategy. israelis killed us on nas

. >> aaron david miller, as always. thank you thanks. >> jessica. >> still ahead. republicans are now appealing a georgia judge's decision strike down a slate of controversial new election. we're going to break down the potential implications for this let's cnn newsroom you want to answer a stoop political analysis. >> you have questions out. >> biden said, the right stayed awake. >> why did trump pulled out of a 60 minutes? i love bullying now network of i got news for you saturday at nine on cnn. >> i still love to surf snowboard. and of course, scape so i take kuno magnesium to support my mother sullivan bone health cumulus, high absorption magnesium glycine, it helps me get the full benefits of magnesium kunal, the brand i trust okay. >> ready to washington one second. >> i got to finish my laundry. yes. it's girls night one second. i use rents what's rinse to the company that will pick up wash, fold, and deliver your laundry and dry dry-cleaning at the touch with veteran i do not trust other people with my laundry brynn's guarantees your satisfaction. >> i've

i was joined now by aaron david miller, seniorfellow at the carnegie endowment for international peacecy based on the administration's view, and probably israelis as well, that when the israelis in fact respond to the october 1st iranian strike of more than 180 ballistic missiles, that the israelis are going to respond, to use the words of the defence minister, in a precise, deadly and surprising manner, and the iranians may well respond. if they respond with the same kind of launch or greater than they did on 10ctober, then thaad which has the capability, the terminal high altitude area defence system, has the capability of intercepting missiles anywhere from 150—200kms away. it's a very effective system and it comes along with at least 90 plus, almost 100, us troops to operate the system as well so i think it's a contingency. it's also clear demonstration at a time when we are closing on one of the most consequential elections in modern american history that the administration does not want to show weakness in the defence and in the face of ira'ns second ballistic missile attack agai

for more, i'mjoined now by aaron david miller, senior fellow at the carnegie endowment for internationalour time today and your insight. what's the main thing to understand to about president biden ordering the thaad missile defence system and its crew be sent "to defend israel". i think it is a contingent based munitions review and probably israelis as well that when the israeli is in fact respond to the october one irani and —— iranian strike, to use the defence of the defence minister —— words of the defence minister, if the iranians respond for the same kind of launch and saad, the capability defence mac system, it has the capability of intercepting missiles —— thaad, it is a very effective system and it comes along with at least 90 plus, almost 100, us troops to operate the system as well so i think it is a contingent. it is also clear demonstration at a time when we are closing on one of the most consequential elections in modern american history and the administration does not want to show weakness in the defence and interfet -- in show weakness in the defence and interfet —— in t

joining me live is aaron david miller — former state department adviser and current senior fellow at�*re told that talks are under way, indicating a cease fire and hostage release deal in gaza. talks stalled yet again. when we see the strike, how serious is israel about those talks? about as serious as hamas is. over the last year we seen talks, sometimes raising expectations that we were near a deal. but always tethered to the unfortunate sad and tragic reality for notjust tragic reality for not just the hostages and their families but the hundreds of thousands of palestinians who are suffering in gaza. there simply in urgency on sinwar when he was alive and certainly on benjamin netanyahu. and while sinwar death may have opened up while sinwar death may have opened up over time the possibility of a significant deal right now we�*re talking about a cease—fire, releasing hostages and perhaps an undetermined number of palestinians. when the presence of pain is so great that the advantages of —— disadvantages of not concluding one. frankly, i think we�*re still very much where we have

aviv is the anchor of this program, nbc's andrea mitchell traveling with secretary blinken and aaron david millertate department and middle east negotiator. secretary of state blinken back in the region, as are you, trying to in his case reach a cease-fire deal and bring the hostages home. what are the chances of this happening? >> reporter: very, very slim. the terrible situation of the explosions over lebanon just today, two apartment buildings collapsed, were levelled by israeli air strikes in beirut. two children we know died, several children died in the -- among the 18 people founded in the rubble, according to the lebanese health service and to our correspondent there. the crisis continues. gaza, people are starving. there have been air strikes there. this as secretary blinken was landing, all this happening. the pressure from the u.s., from blinken today with netanyahu to get food into northern gaza, a trickle of trucks have gotten in. they have not gone to the people who need them because of the continuing air strikes. the u.s., the president said last week at a meeting in germany, the w

i'm joined now by aaron david miller, longtime diplomat in this region knows that very well good to have you. thanks so much for taking time this afternoon. i always hesitate when one major middle eastern power, israel is firing at another major middle eastern power, iran, soon after iran fired at israel to say that the conflict is coming down. but based on expectations, at least at the outside end, as to how big israel's retaliatory strike could be this one, i think we can safely say was that the lower end of that spectrum? is that your view? >> i mean, i think that's right, jim, in terms of the next proverbial shoe to drop, which would be iranian consideration of a response. everything that's coming out of iranian media suggests they're downplaying this and the israelis frankly are not briefing in great detail about how or what they did it, nor do they appear to be groaning about it. so i think that's right that we dodged and other bullet, but i must say this this is the second time iranians struck israel directly. april 13, 14 the israelis and responded with a one-off strike against i

. >> aaron david miller, as always, you are a wealth of knowledge in the region.s. >> thanks for having me, ana. >>> turning now to cuba where millions of people still don't have power days after an outage which was a problem even before a hurricane slammed into the island yesterday. on friday, cuba's entire electric grid collapsed putting 10 million people in darkness. technicians worked to repair it ahead of oscar's landfall, but the grid failed three more times over the weekend and that reached cuba as a category 1 storm with 80 mile per hour winds and it's a tropical storm still bringing heavy wind and rain. the cuban government expects power to be restored by tomorrow. >>> in texas, a fiery helicopter crash late yesterday killing four people including a child. this video shows the aftermath of that crash as the helicopter went into a radio tower in houston sparking a fire that spanned three blocks, a collision so loud firefighters heard it from their station a little less than a mile away. nbc's stephanie gosk has more. stephanie? >> officials are calling thi