today we're kicking it off with abby joseph cohen. abby began her career as an economist with the fed before joining goldman nearly three decades ago. great to have you on the show. >> thanks very much. happy to be here. what do you make of the markets these days? if you had to pick out one thing that the markets are, is that anticipation of fed policy or the price of oil in. >> what we're seeing i think in this recent rally is that investors are realizing that the economic data for the united states are actually reasonably good. we've gotten good data reports, for example, on employment. we see, for example, as well that industrial production has been rising and durable goods orders are all up and the internal dynamic of the u.s. domestic economy looking good, and i think that many investors are responding to that. >> why are we trading so choppily then? if what you say is actually true, that things are looking pretty rosy for us here in the united states, why have we had such a tumultuous 2016? >> 2016 isn't very old thus far, but t