phil ackman said he made some mistakes.d out what he told investors about last year's performance. as we head to a break we got today's affleck try -- aflac tr question. in what year was the company apple founded? ohh ah ah aflac! aaaaf-lac! ta-daa! he's not a very good magician. he paid my claim in just one day. one day?! shh! how does he do it? in just one day, we process, approve and pay. one day pay, only from aflac. thanks. ♪ [ male announcer ] fedex® has solutions to enable global commerce that can help your company grow steadily and quickly. great job. (mandarin) ♪ cut it out. >>see you tomorrow. ♪ there's no one road out there. no one surface... no one speed... no one way of driving on each and every road. but there is one car that can conquer them all. the mercedes-benz c-class. five driving modes let you customize the steering, shift points, and suspension to fit the mood you're in... and the road you're on. the 2016 c-class. lease the c300 for $399 a month at your local mercedes-benz dealer. bill ackman is saying

ackman thinks, ackman thinks it can go to $40 and selling for 1.60. trish: i want to go back to overall market. market is off 354 points. 16,549 is your level. cheryl casone at floor of new york stock exchange and john carney from "wall street journal" and very own charlie gasparino. one of the topics that came up on this set, chairman, whether or not we're in crisis of 2008, different version. warnings from carl icahn several months ago. warnings today from george soros. what are people saying down there on the floor? is this part of what is contributing to this selloff, fear of unknown? perhaps the fed is out of ammunition and may have created a situation for itself that it just can't get out of? >> that is interesting. one of the traders i was talking to, back of his mind, under his breath, wish fed would come in. maybe we'll get qe. that is one voice. most of the guys down here are telling me they don't really expect any kind of interest rate easing if you will which would be strange for the fed to do. going back to the fed story that they raised

we have seen bill ackman fail in jcpenney. erik: what about companies like you chesapeake?iginal vader, who is the activist? >> i end up having to run a company again. i have done all that i want to. stephanie: stay with us. we will wrap up "bloomberg best 2015 u.s. year in review" with predictions for 2016. ♪ ♪ stephanie: welcome back to "bloomberg best." let's close this year in review with a look ahead to 2016. predictions, we have got plenty. >> are you going to ask me questions or what? in -- >> the most powerful modern rocket and the world will barge into space for the first time and it will be launched by spacex. >> virtual reality headsets will be relegated to the world of the defense. >> i think volkswagen will go for electric engines. >> apple will not come out with the car in 2016. >> 2016 will be the first hottest year on record. >> 2016 will be longer than 2015 because it is a leap year. >> yoga pants will take over the world. >> men will be wearing pink. >> men will be made fun of for wearing shorts in the office when it is 100 degrees outside. >> my predictio

we have seen bill ackman fail in jcpenney. >> what i want to know is why you are not doing things liketer,are the original -- i do not want an activist -- and it >> i do not want to next and to happen again. stephanie: stay with us. we will wrap up "bloomberg best 2015 u.s. year in review" with predictions for 2016. ♪ ♪ stephanie: welcome back to "bloomberg best." let's close this year in review with a look ahead to 2016. you like predictions? we have got plenty. >> are you going to ask me questions or what? ♪ >> the most powerful modern rocket, and the world will barge -- in the modern world will launch by spacex. >> virtual reality headsets will be relegated to the world of the -- world of video games. >> i think volkswagen will go for electric engines. >> apple will not come out with the car in 2016. >> 2016 will be the hottest year -- first or second hottest year on record. >> 2016 will be longer than 2015, because it is a leap year. >> yoga pants will take over the world. >> men will be wearing pink. >> men will be made fun of for wearing shorts in the office, when it is 100 degre

compared to 2014 when ackman posted gains of 40%. kate, this quickly becomes a tail about his particular investments as opposed to -- it was a difficult year from hedge funds from a broadway. >> three things and hopefully we have graphics to show. valeant down 30%, that was primarily in the fourth quarter. canadian pacific down 30%, he is still fighting for that norfolk southern deal, herbal life his short up 63%. so based on these three names alone it was a really rough year. you know, he actually lost more in terms of redemptions after his wow year, his 40% up year. he has talked in his last investor letter about the redemption request they had q4 of 2016, they weren't bad at all. you have to assume people have faith in him or they are looking at their high water mark and want to stick it out for a while. you know, he has been a remarkable stock picker all in, but he has had some grand failures that we all know about. >> when the valeant thing was unfolding in the recent months you you a say lot of other hedge fund managers saying

i listen to the sales you tell me about by ackman. this one doesn't add up to me. there's too many question marks here. what's really going on with shareholder base? what's going on? >> we always try go back and draw parallels. it goes back to jobs. jobs at apple and the degree to which the board at the time of his pancreatic cancer was disclosed or not disclosed. >> how important is pearson? >> some would say he's the architect of the entire strategy that built the company and watched the stock price soar for quite some time until the last few months when it cratered. through his decision to acquire aggressively to use that tax rate that the company has. and to cut rnd spending, to raise drug prices which got him in the sights of congress, if you will he's something of an ic iconoclast to say the least. and a workaholic as well many people say. >> a workaholic. >> yes. >> workaholic. >> yes. >> when we come back, we'll get cramer's mad dash, count down to the opening bell. looking at futures. we will see how europe continues to trade into its close. "squawk on the

valeant pharmaceuticals on the down side today after activist investor bill ackman cut his firm's stakee company to 8 1/2%. in a filing the firm reasoned it to selling the share generate a tax loss for investors in the company. shares of valeant fell 3% to 98.50. and investors got the first chance to react to a weak report on gambling revenue in macau that was out on friday which showed a decline of 34%, making 2015 the second year in a row that revenue declined. and that hurt shares of wynn resorts, las vegas sands, and mgm resorts. >>> american express was one of the worst-performing stocks in the dow last year, and it got off to a shaky start today in 2016. shares of amex fell almost 3% after fidelity ended its relationship with the firm. mary thompson has more now on the latest piece of business lost by american express. >> reporter: after a tough 2015 american express stumbles out of the new year's gates. fidelity investments ending a 12-year relationship with amex and bank of america in favor of a co-branded card from visa and u.s. bancorp. >> this is part of a long list of losses

bill ackman was out there praising him this morning. it's generally good news for them.etty: it makes you wonder why they did not have a plan in place sooner. it's good news for the shareholders and for the company, but does it indicate that maybe things are not much better with michael pearson? drew: the company says he is still hospitalized with severe pneumonia. that is what you would expect. severe pneumonia knocks you out of your chair. it's a real disease and puts people at the hospital. it was young, healthy people in the hospital and can do so for weeks. he is 56. he might not be the healthiest guy. he doesn't come across a marathon runner. they said he is getting care. i'm sure he's getting the best care available. they expect him to be out for some time. he will not be there in front of investors that jpmorgan at the conference coming up. betty: they have not given an update on his condition? drew: i don't think they know to be honest. they will have to wait until he is better in can resume his duties. this is probably one of the most stressful jobs, a health c

at a bill ackman, a david einhorn, there are some of the best managers ever.e only ones who guarantee big returns are called madoff. >> had you know which guide to go with at which time -- how do withnow which guy to go at which time? my favorite story about carl buying netflix at 60 and sold it at 300. five times your money. anybody could have done that. the person investing in the hedge fund is using them as a vehicle for a hedge. you can only really judge that against what the investor is also invested in. if you invest all of your wealth with one hedge fund manager, then you don't have much of a balanced portfolio. stephanie: which leads directly off'svid's bernie made victims. whole point is you have a diversified portfolio. at some point when he's right it's going to balance things out. >> the promise of the hedge fund world is we provide alpha, smarter than your average insights into the market, and you pay two and 20 for that and i'm not sure that that is worth it. matt: we can look at greenlight capital. it was more than a 25% loss for david einhorn's

we know canadian pacific was pursuing norfolk southern with bill ackman. since november they've made a series of takeover bids norfolk southern has rejected as being, quote, grossly inadequate. $68, two months, we know at least one player wants to make a position, norfolk southern and csx could make attractive takeover targets. they've fallen from highs. one caveat here, what i wanted southern reports tomorrow. assuming they follow in the footsteps of the other three railroads, results could be negative and could withstand the entire group, which gives you a chance. time@to buy the rail stocks? much more positive in the group, no reason to buy tons of stock immediately. no forced bottom point here, people. you can take your time. what i like to do is leg into these kinds of stocks slowly into weakness, use dividends to tell you exactly to when to pull the trigger. yes, the yields will tell you. for example, you might want to start a position when the company in question sports a 3.5% yield, write these down, csx, $20.57. union pacific, $62.80. norfolk sout

ackman and paulson. stephanie: we are not seeing money leave hedge funds.e are seeing money leave weaker performing hedge funds. the big behemoths are just getting bigger. go with that, but within the consultancy that is striving that observation, it is the tangible idea of desperation defining return. david: we have had several guest on here who have said there are structural reasons why the big investors have to put some money into hedge funds. talk about that consultancy. this is what i look for. we always ask the question that stephanie just asked. what were retail investors doing in this? at some point, those retail investors will find lawyers. tom: i think the retail thing is tangible, but it is over weighted and consumed rather by the institutional desire to find alpha. it's the baloney word. stephanie: zero interest rates puts us in this position where we were scarred for returns. there were no defaults out there. people said i guess this is a place to be. high-yield were trading at 6%. johnathan: 18 months ago was the last time i was in new york. y

. >> that was an old ackman trade. it will work out eventually. >>> is it just us or is peter schiff starting to sound like legendary fund manager dallio. well tell you what he says that has investors running for the exits. >>> and fresh lows and a big dividend cut is coming for big names. we'll tell you what names the traders see slashing dividend this is year. >>> and later, are you afraid we're in a bear market? well if we are, we found the one sector that history says does well if stocks continue into freefall. much more "fast money" after this. ou're a small business expert from at&t? yeah, give me a problem and i've got the solution. well, we have 30 years of customer records. our cloud can keep them safe and accessible anywhere. my drivers don't have time to fill out forms. tablets. keep it all digital. we're looking to double our deliveries. our fleet apps will find the fastest route. oh, and your boysenberry apple scones smell about done. ahh, you're good. i like to bake. get expert advice for your small busin

loss six ackman trillion of the 7 trillion. >> what is important is what you have there.hina. tom: staying 1%. >> china is bright important from an equity market. foundational idea to our confidence? >> normally the textbook would tell you there are three links across the country's. the first one is straight. the second is financial markets. it is clear that financial markets and sentiment are intimately linked. if ceos look around and say we better hold back hiring a little, we should think about what the implications will be. >> when you look at the global stock market, we have seen a lot more consolidation in the last 12 months. consolidation is among regions and countries. are we going to see more consolidation? >> they have to put in place a path to giving you visibility. would be focusing on the companies that have the strongest balance sheets. it is difficult to know who is going to be taking over and who is going to be the acquirer. francine: you are holding for five or six years. we talked about the medium to short-term. what happens in three to four years? is th

ackman's losing streak is extending into 2016.ershing square holdings has lost 11% this year after a loss of 20% last year on the back of a decline in drugmaker valeant. all of their publicly does closed long holdings have fallen this month. leading the decline, platform specialty products. that is the bloomberg business flash. alix: let's head over to the markets desk where julie hyman has a check on the company movers. julie: lending tree is one of the stocks am watching. they are bouncing back after a huge plunge yesterday. company saying it expects to itsase 2016 guidance on call on february 26. yesterday, the company presented did not givece and updated guidance. that is one of the things that contributed to the decline on the stock. shares bouncing back by 12%. today.watching yelp the stock was cut from a cell to a neutral. it is trading above that still. the analyst says it's partly due to a quarter over quarter drop in traffic. there has been increasing competition for the local ratings on the internet. affirming aators de

we've seen a lot of hedge funds and struggle like bill ackman -- the previous year, he did really wellll turn things around this year. he will turn things around this year. bank of america sent out another note on that today. i have to take a better look at that. this one just focused on equities. scarlet: thank you so much. alix: still ahead, tech startup foursquare suffering identity crisis in the past, but now hitting its stride. we will talk to the new ceo, next. ♪ scarlet: welcome back to bloomberg markets. alix: foursquare's cofounder stepped down last week, supporting the company's push to its new strategy. originally a location check-in app, it has expanded its functionality, including its pinpoint platform. the company's new ceo joins bloomberg radio. >> thank you so much. you are listening to the bloomberg advantage. i want to bring in jeff glick. you got the new spot, you are the new ceo of foursquare. what is at the top of your agenda here? >> nice to be here. our business grew 170% last year. building up our enterprise solutions and our developer tools and pinpoint audienc

. >> bill ackman was there advocating for change as well. >> but he's the one that got him back. >> hempany operate at a higher metabolism. let's say that. margins were too low. all the rest of it. i do think it's the kind of stock perfectly built for this market, right? people have loved these bond like very stable companies to own and it's been bad. >> but they also like the turn around stories on the staples. mcdonald's and walmart getting credit for being a defensive turn around story. >> today's a day when we're saying bad news is priced in. let's give it a shot. >> they should benefit from lower energy costs overall. >> they did see better margins. >> right. >> this quarter and yes, energy goes into a lot of the production of a lot of their soaps and beauty products. also consumers should be getting a benefit from the lower oil prices. they didn't talk about it because it's being largely offset by the stronger dollar. >> with a 2% yield on the ten year and 3.35% yield on this stock. >> right. >> down side is. >> that's to mike's point. >> not too many stocks can say that right no

bill ackman, very smart guy. >> all right.gainst him in the norfolk deal, let's be fair. >> some of his bets, if you look at two of his bets, valeant, nothing to do with activism, he just picked a stock. or mondelese where nelson peltz is already there. the opportunities are so limited he had to pile on on top of nelson peltz. if the big guys like pershing can't find opportunities, i think it's a tough ask. >> that's what underpins your belief to short activists, just lack of opportunity? >> yeah. what's happened is there are no more fortune brands. no companies own titleist golf balls and jim bean liquor, there may be a few, but very few. the whole idea of returning capital, people have recognized that's not a panacea for anything. it can be an appropriate thing to do, but buyouts in and of themselves are not as favored as they were. >> finally 2016, we're not going to get to 5 trillion? >> i don't think so. i think it's -- personally i think it's going to be a good year for m&a, but very hard to repeat what we had last year.

are dan loeb or bill ackman, all of whom like to take large stakes in companies because they know theyn had less than 1% of ebay when he started his proxy fight there. jana had less than 2% of qualcomm when it initiated a strategic review last summer. 3% less of dupont, but ultimately resulted in ellen leaving the company. fabio: i hear you and there is the big stick. could there is the other reality that mason capital is the largest hedge fund that holds them. they have lost about 40% of their assets. substantialen a rotation out of activist. mason was down double digits earlier and had another rough you. they are down substantially. frankly, star board has also seen acid withdrawals as well. there's more of an element to whose army?us the market cap for this company is $31 billion. you take these three things together, their ownership of alibaba is 29 billion. the third component of that is that silicon valley is about attracting town to people to work for you. does is in aone relevancy to the stock price of yahoo!. no one on the business card makes any difference to the value of the

. >>> bill ackman issuing an apology after his hedge fund suffered its worst year last year.pershing lost 15% to 20%. he writes when the stock price rose this summer to the mid 200s per share, we did not sell as we believed it was probable the company would likely complete additional transactions that would meaningfully increase in intrinsic value. in retrospect this was a costly mistake. >> a number of others as well, platform, a company which has gone down dramatically, canadian pacific also. interestingly he says valeant had actually considered selling some this summer but were locked up because they were in possession of knowing the company was considering a large deal of some kind. doesn't give us indication of that. some of the more interesting parts of the letter, after he goes through the portfolio and the disaster that befelled it last year is a build potential bubble taking on the index fund force lack of corporate governance and unwillingness to engage and wondering out loud as to whether if we continue to see these flows into all of these passively managed funds,

. >> i'm going to call it a reversal. 10 months ago when bill ackman was on the scene, we loved thathis deep rare disease trade. help us understand this change. >> i think it is about expertise. when we think about being a leader in a category, that implies you have privileged to all of the key constituents in a particular therapeutic category. it means regulatory affairs and medical affairs are more efficient. even as small companies innovate, they look to you to be the partner. what this is about really is being the number one or number two leader in a clinical category. >> if focus is the premium now, the focus on spectacular categories, are there companies is that atheir focus? possibility in the pharmaceuticals area? >> we have already seen that. those guys affectively swapped assets. one was doubling down on oncology. they both did carve outs of those assets and sold them to the other. theme, an investment deal thesis. the owner isn't necessarily the number two leader. it is really going to be a common deal theme. r&d discussion, how much is this about pattern expire? >> i thin

remember when bill ackman revealed in 2011 that he was betting that this hong kong peg would break? well, it's been a wrong trade for years and although there are stresses now, it may not actually happen because consensus is saying that hong kong does have hundreds of billions of dollars of fire power reserves and the determination to keep the peg even under pressure. this is a similar story for saudi arabia. the riyal pegged for decades to the dollar. there is increasing speculation it's just getting too expensive to defend the riyal as oil tanks. the bottom line, oil's collapse, china's slowdown is pressuring economies globally and central banks are being seriously tested just adding to the overall unsercu uncertainty in this market. >> currency pegs, there aren't that many of them left in the world, but those few that remain if and when they break, the moves are so violent because when currencies trade you can see the flows over days. the dollar moves day by day by day, but if a central bank allows something to happen like we saw the swiss franc, the moves are so violent and can

. >> okay, a thursday alert right now, bill ackman's hedge fund ended 2015 with a 20.5% loss accordingng an investor update. we knew it was around 20%, but now we have the tally. when we come back, a milestone putting tv in second place. digital media taking the top advertising spot with billions after stake with potential winners and losers next, and political ad spending ramping up this month ahead, and donald trump is in the act. we'll show you what we're talking about when we return. >>> gop presidential front runner, trump, released the first political ad of his campaign, highlighting his stance on muslims, terrorism, and begins airing in iowa and new hampshire today. >>> doiigital media on track to take tv as the number one media category. digital media reaching $68 billion in advertising revenue in 2016. joining us now to say who he thinks are the winners and losers in the media world is the associate portfolio manager of the multimedia trust. good morning, larry. >> hi, andrew. >> thank you for joining us. when you look at who we're going to be the winners and losers of this, a

you're an investor in bill ackman's persing square, and last year, though, he was down more than 20%. staying? >> we have no plans at the point in time to change out of persing square. i focus more of my time at strategy level, the asset category level, and it is providing what they are supposed to do in our portfolio. they have a concentrated portfolio, significant conviction in their positions, and as we model the performance of any other type of hedged equity portfolio, it really is receivering the purpose, so to the extent that they were to change and become real estate focused fund or something else, then i might have bigger issues than if they stick to what they their knitting it. >> okay, thank you so much for joining us today. >> thank you, becky. >>> coming up, is the housing market in danger of another crisis? we'll get a -- i don't like doing this, getting a reality check on real estate in america because, you know, people say realtors, and it's not a realtor. it's a retrealtor. reality reenforces it. it's nuclear. remember? look what happened to that. >> just get a check.

. >> i don't know, bill ackman, he sold some -- >> right before the end of the year. >> after he hadoubled down. >> close to 10% and then backtracked about 1.5%. >> that's getting close to another level there too when you look at those lows that it hit. >> generally wanted to be -- >> okay. got it. >> i just think that we're -- >> yum brands chairman and ceo david novak. former ceo going to retire in may. the company is in the process of spinning off it's china business. verizon reportedly launching an auction to sell it's data center assets. the company is looking to get more than $2.5 million for that. >> let's get back to the broader markets right now. as we showed you the u.s. equity future versus been selling off sharply this morning. dow futures down by 250 points below fair value and the s&p futures are off by 30. they're also looking at the nasdaq down by 71 points. this comes from claims overnight that north korea tested the hydrogen bomb. joining us is ubs's senior portfolio manager and senior vice president. also he is the director of global macro for fidelity investments.