adam haigh looking at the markets.rvative bank has been at the forefront when it comes to ending monetary stimulus. but can janet yellen stay in the lead if inflation keeps slowing her? kathleen hays with more, inflation dropping. kathleen: it increases the conundrum, they say, because unemployment is low, the economy has gotten stronger. not only is it not getting closer to target, it has fallen the past three months. consumer spending also looking on the weak side. here is a chart. if you give me a second -- there we go. because -- 2589. this was the personal spending and income, these are the numbers that watches closely. -- the fed watches closely. the turquoise line is down to 1.5. they got down the first time in five years. , but not as abrupt steadily lower in the core inflation rate. , the odds of a rate hike are also coming down pretty substantially from where they were earlier. what we have now is the world interest rate projection. expected inno hike july, no press conference, but september, gress what -- gu

furthermore, here is adam haigh in sydney. seems to be holding a very well for equity investors. this earningsinto season. what are we going to see throughout this weekend? adam: it does really pick up this week, earnings season. johnson & johnson. big bellwethers for their industries. this has big implications for asian investors who want to take away tidbits from those companies. .apan comes back online we saw some upside in asian equities on monday. looks like we have a little bit more to go today, but there is not a huge amount. we are waiting for more of those earnings reports to come through to see if we have got enough of those. fairly lofty expectations. enough to have got continue this equity rally that has already added $10 trillion to the value of global stocks this year. so it is going to take quite a bit more to keep this pushing on. interesting move in the kiwi dollar, selling off. worries around that inflation number that we came out. interesting to note that we saw a big decrease in rate hike expectations for th

adam haigh joining us. the aussie dollar on quite a charge, maybe owing somewhat to the u.s. t is holding up well to the rba minutes. where is the australian dollar heading next? adam: it was really a combination of those two factors yesterday, extended dollar weakness. then you had the huge run-up after the minutes. a fundamental reassessment of the growth profile and how the rba is assessing that. it is unusual to see this big a reaction to minutes. to that 97 sent u.s. cent u.s. level. 79 cents. they think we could get to 80 cents in the next year. a better chance of high rates by may of next year. we started the week with that being a 40% of ability. -- probability. they are reassessing australia. ande has been a lot of doom gloom around how the australian economy is progressing over the past few months. this has swung the dial in the other direction and spurred gains. some managers have been positioning this for some time. they looked through this more bearish take over the past few weeks and have been positioning for the aussie since may. short-term speculators last week

here is adam haigh in sydney. -- that isis week not stopping some of the worry warts right now in theseadam: the story of the week has been a rosy picture for equities and the dovish tones we have been hearing from policymakers in the states, driving that emerging-market -- driving that. emerging markets having a good week, as well. again thisrencing low volatility we have been experiencing. still aroundvix, those multi-year lows, they expect to double at some point. which is a fairly bold call. they see it going to 20. toy say that is a reversion the mean we have seen over the past few decades. they expect that will occur. they want to remind investors to not be complacent. the key problems remain the things surfacing this year, that equity investors are ready to look through. mainly geopolitics, the aging u.s., and the gradual with of stimulus from u.s. banks. they see that as a potential triggers for an uptick in volatility. yvonne: we have been talking about this tear on em stocks. you have been looking at key technical levels that are showing things stacking up in favor. is there m

adam haigh with the set up for what to look out for in asia. the start of the second half of the year. in case you had not noticed, there are certain assets done well, others not done well is the dollar. the dollar has the worst start to the year. since 2006, the first half of not get over for the dollar bulls. it could get worse. i want to pull up a chart, btv 561. pulling up the currency, has done better than the dollar, the mexican peso, remember the wall? also the euro here has outperformed the greenback. the real reasons for this. you can imagine what they are. the unraveling of trump trade and the fed rate hike story. looking at the bloomberg function showing a very small chance we will see another rate hike in the next meeting. and it seems like other central banks are hiking rates. that is calling the dollar to weaken. it may not be a second half at all for the bulls. yvonne: and especially for the euro bulls, we will see if there is upside. lifted -- people might have misinterpreted that move. he talked of fx and bonds as concernsuse o

adam haigh joining us from sydney. adam, good to see you. a big question we keep asking is growth? topline it seems u.s. companies have this on their sales forecast and are getting hit the most. morning, yvonne. as we have been hearing from our colleague su keenan, at this point in the earnings season, investors are trying to get a feel for what some of the biggest themes are, and it is interesting to see the dichotomy to install price performance on companies that are beating on the profit numbers and those that are missing, but also those missing on the sales numbers. certainly on the earnings releases, it is all about the big hits. on the chart, it is more than a 3% decline on the days that companies miss on the sales numbers, halfway through the earnings season in the u.s.. it shows you the level of expectation investors have for revenues and companies they will. we need to see numbers coming in or beating otherwise. if they fall short of expectations, their stocks get sold off. later today in asia, we have plenty of other big companies. we have them reporting later this week.

let's go to adam haigh as we look ahead. ty muted into trading, but a huge week for earnings. adam: it is massive indeed. the micro getting in place because we have tended to move away from individual companies, even in the equity market, investors have been so engrossed in the central banks. we will hear from the fed on wednesday. that will be key, but it is micro driver company specific sphere we have credit suisse, amazon. we have a lot of tech and banks andalso rack so smith line all sorts of bellwethers for their industries. just setting up for a slightly weaker start on monday. oil just a little bit weaker ahead of the opec meeting. it will be close to keep an eye on. haidi: we talk about the relocation out of the u.s. after record highs. in the spdesting are, one of the most liquid assets out there with the biggest etf for the u.s. traded stocks. this chart shows you hear the money flowing out, they are now foring for the fourth month july. that would be a record straight going back to the start of the bull market. tha

let's get the latest with adam haigh in sydney. good to see you.ork with you and your team on the survey you have conducted with three investors and strategist, asking them what they saw or when they would see the end of this bull run in stocks and bonds. most said, late 2018. what will lead up to that? adam: good morning, yvonne. the bull market going into its last phase. a key takeaway, the median estimate is looking at the last quarter of next year for the start of the bear market and the s&p 500. this has been a really good bull run it has gone on for a long time. it is the second longest bull market in u.s. history. the main concern now from the survey participants is the worry around central-bank policy and of exit from these years unprecedented stimulus from some of the big major central banks. wast of this action coordinated going in and a lot of investors are worried about a messy unwind on these balance [no audio] ramy: it looks like we have just lost adam haigh. let's continue on right here and head over to the federal reserve. the feder

let us get the latest from adam haigh. adam, we have been talking about u.s. posting pretty healthy earnings. the stock has been under pressure lately. what is going on here? what does that say about the broader economic worry? the: yeah, at this point in u.s. earnings season, it is interesting to see it happening in u.s. banks. what is going on here is profits are doing pretty well. we have artie seen $30 billion worth of profit earned in the reporting season from the big ten banks. profits are exceeding expectations generally across the board. just speaking to the folks. they are happy with what they have been seeing from banks. the share prices are under some pressure. interesting chart here shows the kbw banks index against the yield shows you the mirror image. as at treasury yield has come off, bank stocks have been coming off as well. we are in a situation where profits have been doing nicely at u.s. banks, but talks have been selling off during the reporting season. they have been down on this index for nine of the past 10 days, which is the worst perfo

let us bring in adam haigh, joining us from sydney now. adam, good to see you.d market into her steadied. equities looking to a fairly muted start. we are looking for the next catalyst, earnings. yeah, yvonne, that is absolutely steadying in the bond market. it has been a tough two weeks in that selloff, so that will be comforting. say, you get the next key piece of information coming from corporate's themselves and back to company fundamentals, which will be very welcome for equity investors. bear in mind, expectations are very high going into this earnings season. in the u.s., often by this time of the year, we have seen the expectations being operated a fair bit, and that has not happened this year. with expectations high going into this, that does leave risk of disappointment and the s&p, very close to those record highs , and global equities performing very well. so that is very key. also, we do hear from brainard. her speech is particularly interesting because it focuses on normalization and how they get the balance sheet reduction started. that is one of

adam haigh joining us live out of sydney. central-bank divergence overshadowing markets.oj fights its lonely 2% battle. at the otherecb end of the spectrum looking at the change of tack. -- tech. more oflet's look for this with kathleen hays, where she covered the boj. we heard from governor kuroda, he held course, but pushed back the goalpost when they would hit inflation. what was your take? kathleen: my take is that andrnor corroded -- kuroda the team at the boj is clear, they are in it for the long haul. in the more reason to dig and continue to fight the reflation fight. i want to preface this whole discussion around the view of questioning this theme of central-bank diversion. not because of the boj, they are the side we look at when we want to say there is diversions -- divergence. a lot of questions for governor kuroda about pushing the inflation target out to 2020. he said 2% is a necessary target. he made it so clear, you have to understand, japan is fighting a 20 year deflation legacy. let's hear what he said. >> i would like to point out, there is strong defla

adam haigh is in sydney.we watching out for -- will be see a bigger fallout here in the market from these renewed tensions in north korea? at the moment, we not seeing a huge move in the markets. we are seeing geopolitical tensions escalate and there has been some move of money toward safer havens. the yen and older marginally stronger this morning. but they are not huge moves. we must run a that context amongst what is happening here. developments are keeping up and happening quickly. interesting to know, the south korean market itself, tensions on the korean peninsula, muted. i love this terminal chart. extent of the south korean kospi index and how it has outperformed this year, which is an interesting thing to remember. escalations are something that foreign investors and south korea are very used to. theythe course of time, have been prepared to look through these mild bouts of risk aversion that happen from time to time, as things do escalate. the yellow line on the bottom panel shows us, foreign invest

let's get to the latest with adam haigh joining us from sydney. , seeing stocks looking to start the week slightly down. do you think earnings live up to expectations? adam: good morning. they are very lofty expectations , and we will have to see big try to keepis week the rally in equities going. the interesting thing is i am hearing from a real cross-section of companies, glaxosmithkline, credit suisse, then you have amazon and alphabet and tech giants as well. it is a good cross-section and should provide investors with a decent understanding of how the earnings season is progressing, one of the busiest weeks we get in the u.s. we have the federal reserve decision coming, but it is around the statement with the central bank balance sheet reduction, how will they do that? any commentary can be very isful for how that positioning. we know the bond market continues to expect far fewer rate hikes in the federal reserve itself. we have the focus on the micro data, company fundamentals and whether we can push the bull market further. yvonne: despite t

let's get to adam haigh for more on this. what is your take on the numbers so far? just looking at those headline numbers, it will take a little bit of that pressure off prime minister shinzo abe. his poll ratings are under a lot of pressure. we have been reading reports this morning that his defense today.r may be resigning she would be the latest casualty in a series of how he is having to adapt to these poll ratings. these numbers ease that pressure a bit. elsewhere in japan today, there are a lot of earnings to get to. we are expecting -- in the market itself. when the market closes friday afternoon, we have big heavyweights coming up, , and yahooomura japan, reporting after the markets. there is a lot for japanese investors to get to. the dollar-yen and a reasonably tight range. it will be interesting to see how that plays out. we have seen a, huge rally in the small-cap stocks. they have been the worst performers this year. what is going on with this turnaround? getting a little relief in the china index, the key gauge of small-cap, mainland chinese shares. yes

we are joined by bloomberg's global markets aeditor adam haigh.hat blowup number when it came to the headline job gains, but wage growth is still stagnant. cool labor, not too market, is that going to be a further boost for equity gains? ,eporter: by the looks of it the selloff we are seeing in bonds is rolling through to asia. australia in 10 years is selling off this morning. is a continuation of that statement -- of that theme we have had. investors being prepared to just put all their eggs in the global economy and continued earnings expansion we are seeing across the world. if you look at the u.s., often the earnings numbers are being downgraded at this point in the year, but they are holding up relatively well for the s&p 500. it is that against the concern in the bond market that is driving the selloff of a more hawkish tilt we have got from central bankers recently. theme ase of that same we start the week off in asia. we will probably see more small gains in asian equities as we roll through from friday. really the week is all about that

we bring in our global markets editor, adam haigh. we are waiting for the r.b.i. decision.nt. is it now time to reverse? reporter: the message coming anz from the people at freddie aussie dollar bulls to be aware as we go into this message. they are making the claim of resilience. let's bring it up on the terminal. it shows you the strength of the aussie dollar recently. last week was characterized i a bankerslobal central pushing more on the hawkish commentary, and the expectations commentary ande discussion in the market has been around whether the rba will in the hawkish language. all things considered, if we go into the meeting today, we expect that won't be the case here, but there is still a risk and that skews a downside disappointment risk for the aussie. people are cautioning against any hawkish move from the rba and think they will have to wait before they got the inflation numbers this month before they make any change to their incredibly neutral stance, which they have maintained for some months right now. betty: the people at bank of america have been asking th

let's bring in adam haigh in sydney. north korea dominating the geopolitical realm this week.illets resilient to all of this. why is that? indeed, very, resilient. and a showing a track record we where equityory, investors shrug off these political concerns and focus more on the fundamentals. let's take a look at it on a chart. the extent of the outperformance we are seeing in south korean stocks. it is asia's best market this year. it is handing double what you are seeing on the s&p 500. that is because investors focus on earnings rebounding, the buybacks we are seeing and corporate reforms that slowly but surely are coming through. investors hope we will see more cablethe big chaebol's -- -- chaebols get reformed. earnings growth story continuing to power stocks on. yvonne: here in hong kong, we have been seeing a drop in activist activity recently, compared to a month ago. are we in the clear? is it getting harder to short stocks in hong kong? is certainly shows us there is some trepidation around -- investors are prepared to go with a theme and stick with it, on the bearis

adam haigh is joining us live it from sydney.en looking at the bank of america monthly survey of investors that shows money pouring out of u.s. equities despite these rallies. where is all this money going? it is very interesting in the context of what we have been hearing. we keep notching up record after record of u.s. stocks. this closely watched bank of america survey, they manage more than $500 billion in assets. a really serious pool of money managers. there are underweight position in u.s. equities is the biggest since 2008. the least amount of u.s. equities they were holding since the financial crisis. that shows us -- told us a few things about valuations. this showsrt here, us the disparity between the u.s. market in the japanese market, where we have seen an outperformance in japan. money wasne faces going into with investors increasing their overweight position in japanese stocks. the relative value trade is people finding plenty more value in japanese companies. still plenty of run, we had a pullback after the initia

adam haigh joining us live from sydney.arts looking ominous when it comes to equity investors. talk us through them. it looks like a pretty tricky end to the week for market. that spill over from what we have seen in the u.s. session, going to impact us here in asia. the first chart was interesting. this is the s&p 500 and the 50 day moving average. you can see how we have been through that key level. not always give us a predictive value of what is going to happen next. us anhey do is give indication of where momentum is in the market. selling is gathering momentum in the u.s. equity market. we will see that it is still over to asia. and this is sitting on that 50 day moving average. pretty tricky times. one upbeat thing we will see today will be those samsung numbers. that is been a very good performing stock in south korean equities. generally doing very well. may be the bright spot in among some a gloomy trading during the week. betty: we know that where samsung goes, so goes the south korean markets, right? moving to a

let's get to our global markets editor, adam haigh, joining us live from sydney. he dollar back in the doldrums, stocks and bonds not acting too much overnight. how will asia wake up to all this? adam: good morning. the main message is around inflation, isn't it? those are the key takeaways. the move in the dollar was big. they pronounced moves to the upside. especially the aussie, the kiwi. a little bit of reassessment for global money managers as they work their way through the fed statement. it will mean slightly different things to different people, depending on their expectations for inflation. they may make slight tweaks around the edges. we will get back to company fundamentals. facebook is doing nicely in after-hours trading in the u.s.. we have heard the ocbc numbers growing in singapore. as london traders awake later in the day, we get plenty more from the european trading season. it is one of the biggest days in european markets. now that we are through this fed meeting, we get back to company fundamentals and allow stock investors to get back to what th