adam parker, the chief u.s. equity strategist at morgan stanley. so adam, what is the impact on the corporate profit outlook for next year? >> well, the analyst estimates are for 12.5% earnings growth for the s&p in 2013, and accelerating and improving set of engs that they arele beding, despite the fact that the way the law iswritten now that fisc cliff could be 5% impact on gdp so, we think that's inconsistent and the risk is negative to those estimates. >> tom: so you're saying that wall street is too optimistic that corporations and their profits, their bottom lines can with stand the fiscal cliff. so what's the likely jut come? >> we think the earnings estimates have to come down, we think they are too optimistic, and we repositioning the portfolio defensively in light of that. >> susan:. >> tom: one of those defensive areas you're going overweight is health care, etf's to illustrate your ideas here, ma whaix you like health care in this environment? >> it's really three things. it's estimate achieve ability, we think the broader markets are to

i bring in adam parker, a defensive day here. do you like utilities at these levels?two sectors are overweight and it's health care and utilities. those are top two. so they are less likely to be missed dramatically. we like pharmaceuticals where the yields are good. >> so you're going to stay with those defensive sectors? >> sure. if the market goes lower, they are going to outperform it. i would say, on the other side, probably the machinery select industrials and consumer discretionary stocks, those are underweight ideas because the analyst estimates are way too high. >> what is going on? i mean, the other day we had a monster rally on better than expected earnings and then it faded. today we have a big selloff and then it comes back again. what is this market telling us? >> it's telling you to be defensive. everyone likes yield. i'm not so excited about yield. i'm going to be buying growth

. >> let get back to our conversation with our newest squawk masters, adam parker, ken rogoff and raghuramolicy as well. if there's not monetary policy and not fiscal still laws lust co -- stimulus, what does that mean for the economy? >> monetary stimulus i would lick to see. the euro needs to be going down. but if there's no monetary stimulus and no further fiscal stimulus, obviously we're going to continue to grow slowly. but that said, i mean, just pure fiscal stimulus, pure spending would have some effect. but we're in a situation where we could be in secularly slow growth for decades given the overhang of debt. so what i really object to is the idea it's a free lunch, interest rates are really low, there's nothing much po worry about, why are you leaving this low hanging fruit? i really think that's overly simplistic and very dangerous thinking. >> ken, you were on a panel earlier this week. ken be you were on a panel with adam earlier this week. >> a few weeks ago. >> and what came out of that panel, too? >> i totally agree with what he's saying. at the end of of the day, our earnin

call your buddy, adam parker, whatever his name is. >> from morgan stanley? >> he's looking for 400 on the s&p, isn't he? >> yeah. >> call him up. you know what he's going do. slowly raise his target so he doesn't look quite as stupid as he does right now. >> we have to invite him back on the show. >> he makes a lot of money to get this right, done he? >> he does. >> do you know what the -- >> don't give him such a hard time. >> do you know what the s&p is up? >> total percentage. >> yeah, percent. >> 12%. it's may. >> you're on your way. >> we'll see. >> i'll take any average. 115,000, remember that? it w >> it was down for april. >> down in april? >> it was. dow was up, but just barely. but the s&p -- yeah, i think it is. the s&p -- it was barely down in april. the s&p and the nasdaq were both down. >> year to date 1rks , 12%. wow. >> anyway, michelle is here. it's a lot easier to introduce her now. >> we'll be looking for an early snapshot when the tape joins us. michelle joins us now. big number in manufacturing which, i guess, in any type of bumpy recove

adam jovamos cone playoffs de la nba,. anoche en san antonio, el francÉs tony parker anotÓ 34 puntos, el argentino manu ginÓbili aÑadio 20 yieron perfectos en los playoffs al doblegar 120-111 al thunder de oklahoma city en el segundo partido de la final de la conferencia del oeste. asÍ, san antonio ha recorrido la mitad del camino para resolver la final de la conferencia en un suspiro. por la conferencia del este, hoy en miami sera el segundo partido deserie, heat recibe de nuevo a los celtics de boston. el primer partido lo gano el quinteto de miami 93-79 y esta noche boston buscara ganar para el abierto de tenis de francia sigue dejando grandes sorpresas. ayer les contamos que la tenista estadounidense serena williams perdiÓ en la primera ronda de un torneo grande por primera vez en su carrera al caer hoy ante la local virginie razzano 4-6, 7-6, 6-3. williams estuvo varias veces a dos puntos de la victoria en el segundo set, cuyo desempate llegÓ a liderar 5-1. pero razzano se llevÓ seis puntos seguidos para forzar un tercer set y porteriormente a la victoria final. la estadounidense habi Ía ganado los 46 partidos de la p