let's bring in adam posen who joins us.l. >> a 4 million private sector jobs, people want to know how you got to that number. >> yeah. it's the number -- the number is a solid estimate, but it's an estimate. what we've done is we've taken several different standard macro models and then said, okay, if you get the baseline trump policies that he's declared, we work through industry by industry, county by county what's going to happen, and i actually think, carl, that's what people should focus on. we have it all up on our website, all the data and interactive map. people can reconstruct it. we're making tangible how santa clara, california, or it's detroit that gets hit and it's the poor working people, frankly, who get hit. if you start a trade war with mexico and china. it's not just an abstract big number. it's specific industries, specific companies, specific communities. >> how are you making the leap from jobs that are directly tied to trade to jobs that are affected in ripple effects? >> that's a very good question. w