adam sieminski has been in his current job for a year and a half. before that he had a career with another company for 14 years as chief econmist and energy stratagist. adam is a former president of the united states association of energy economics and also former president of the national ass association of petroleum analyst. he has been on a number of advisory committees. the energy and national security program and also at least two advisory committees in the past here to the energy program. and he has been an occasional lecturer several times here. we are pleased to have him back. he is going to talk about the reference case of the 2014 annual energy outlook. and we will weproceed with discussion and q&a after that. welcome, adam. >> will, thank you for the in o introduction. it is great to see you back at john hopkins. i heard you say we were old friends and i am now saying friends of long acquaintance. i want to go through our energy outlook report. first thing is i want to thank john and paul. john is right here. and here comes paul. so when