adolpho, let me start with you.re, big picture, look at the stakes tonight, a lot of people say do-or-die night for jeb bush. do you agree with that? >> well, yes, i think governor bush really needs to step it up tonight. and i think he spent some of the weekend trying to reinvent himself, in many ways. and i think when everything else fails, he needs to do so. i really do think this is a critical night for him. i think he stands a great deal to lose if he doesn't step up, i think. i think a lot of his support might be shifting very quickly to senator rubio. the others, of course, you have mentioned them but rand paul and some of the other candidates are bombing quite poorly. you asked about making the next debate. i think he and governor christie are going to be, as well as governor huckabee, also struggling. and of course, lastly, didn't ask this question, built candidate that has the most to lose in many ways is donald trump. if he doesn't perform, i think you will see him plummet very quickly and his support sta

let's bring in matt lewis, adolpho franco and susan delpursio. matt, your reaction to the first national poll showing carson in the lead? the timing actually very good for cnbc because it certainly will ignite some fireworks we believe in that debate tomorrow. >> absolutely. the iowa thing didn't surprise me. the national poll, carson leading in national polls is a big deal. donald trump leading for like 100 days. from my standpoint, i think this is good news. and it's great news for cnbc. i have to tell you. i mean, the dirty little secret is we all want narratives, a story line out of every debate. the last time it was carly fiorina. it was her first debate. she obviously did great. it seems like the table's being set for a clash of trump and carson and that may be the headline. >> may be. adolfo, matt brings up carly fiorina and her great debate performance described by matt and others there and lingering at the bottom of the national polls. >> sure. >> while a great debate performance might have gotten her some buzz it didn't move her there.

thank you, adolpho franco, ryan grimm, thanks for watching msnbc live. i'm steve cokornacki. "hardball" starts right now. >>> republicans in a frenzy. welcome to "hardball." >>> good evening, i'm chris matthews in boulder, colorado, the site of tonight's cnbc republican presidential debate. and i will admit, it's hard for me to get my head around the chaos of the republican fight for president right now. are the majority of the republican voters so unhappy with their usual leaders, their governors like bush and christie and kasich, they are determined to pick a defiant outlier like trump, carson, fiorina or cruz, or are they ready to just give up the revolution and fall into line? or, is one candidate cute enough politically, marco rubio, to appeal to both catmps, the establishment and the renegades? more immediately, are those on the hard right attracted more to a canned the da, donald trump, who knows something about the economy or one who seems more in league with their religious values, dr. ben carson? well, these are fairly basic questions for a party to be considering t