that's a big miss as far as adp goes. a very powerful reason to believe the adp number. it does go along with other softer economic data, especially jobless claims pointed to a weakening in the economy. joe maroff saying the economy hit a low in the spring, whether that's weather related is not yet clear. high frequency overpredicted in march so could swing the other way in april. but we can't ignore the headline number. we think this softening will not last. they did bring their number down, by the way, from 200,000 to 125,000 for friday. rdq pointing out, we ignore it. we don't use the adp employment report in our forecast for payrolls. we continue to look for nonfarm and private payrolls to have risen 175,000 in april. there are viewers from smart economists. another critical question, if the april bls report includes weather payback, is that process now over? the friday number will now reflect actual trend. goldman tells me he thinks there's a bit to go and that's why he thinks 125,000 compared with the trend of 150,000. that would make the 168 just a bit strong, but

the adp number today.e'll find out -- i assume that's on your mind a little bit. >> it's europe, europe. numbers are irrelevant. give me a number above 250,000, i'd say we got something good. otherwise our eyes are turned to europe. i would actually key up bob marley redemption song because i think that redemption plan that they're discussing that's coming out of germany is it actually very interesting. it would do a lot to provide a huge a liquidity into the system. >> could yyou could wait a longt this point. >> you're not going to wait that long. you'll hear about what they'll do and will they pledge gold if to a central redemption plan which would solve warren buffett's problem about gold not have i any problem. we could actually collateralize it and it becomes a very interesting issue and then we'll go from the reseveral shon song to kelly's here rows and then have all the gold behind german lines and everybody will be happy and secure collateralize t and everything will be secure and we'll have the e

today's adp though not nearly as hot.ed the street and also some european fears creeping back into the forefront. what's next for equity? two five-star fund managers join us this morning to talk about what's next. president, portfolio manager ever the permanent portfolio fund and, michael, is it risk on or risk off for the month of may? >> as long as corporate earnings hold up -- they've been surprisingly strong in q1 so far with 75% reporting, that's a great underpinning for stock prices. the income story for investors is good for stocks and it's been light volume so there is a lot more room for new volume. >> april is all about instead of tech and financials, it was all about telecom and utilities. are you position be some more defensive stance to get through to make your way to october or does seasonality matter to you? >> we are not. we're believers in the global growth story and the u.s. is growing anemically and may be underperforming its potential. still growing. emerging markets are still growing. that combined wi

eastern with adp employment numbers. "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ >>> welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc first in business worldwide. i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and wow, and someone said they didn't like that music and we got a call from management. our guest host this morning is neel kashkari, head of global equities at pimco. do you know that song? thank your boys. think cars. >> is it from "cars"? >> yes. you got it! >> hold on that song is way before "cars" ever existed. >> but they used it in that. >> we should find out what movie -- >> that's the movie it was in. "cars." rascal flatts, right? >> checking u.s. futures. the original version was tom cochran and then rascal flatts. checking u.s. equities futures this morning indicated a little bit lower. continuing the afternoon, the late afternoon swoon. wasn't a swoon. we were well up over 100 and closed up about 70, down 35 now. everything could change at 8:15. that's going to be the big number. we're counting down friday's april employment rep

the nation's leading payroll processer,adp, says u.s.ompanies added just 119,000 jobs in the month of april. that is a significant decline from an initial projection of nearly 200,000 jobs, and it's the lowest in seven months. the news even causing stocks to open in the red this morning. and our next guest says parts of this report are even worse than the raw numbers would suggest. joining us now, matt mccall, president of penn financial group. what do you meansome. >> well, you break down these numbers and, obviously, only 119,000 jobs created according to adp, going in the absolute wrong direction -- megyn: in the private sector. >> worst that we've seen in seven months. we've seen over the last couple of months weave dramatically turned in the wrong direction. we break down these numbers, we see construction lost 5,000 jobs, manufacturing lost 5,000 jobs. of those 119,000 created, 123,000 came from service which typically is not going to be leading -- megyn: wait, that's too many -- you say of the 119 created, 123,000 came from servic

where do you stand today given the disappointing adp report? does it change your opinion on the stock market? how are you setting up ahead of friday? >> i'll long on the market in things that aren't moving a whole lot today, pharmaceuticals -- pfizer, ppa. i'm long but in boring defensive type names. there is new news today that's tempering anybody's bullishness -- ha is europe. spain right now is trading to 8 1/2-year lows. >> look, we've known what the situation is in europe. yes, the economies are bad over there. the pmis over there today were especially bad. >> i think the pmi numbers are new news and the fact that yoeu currency is moving today. we're seeing a dig move downward today. there is a lot of rumors that the ecb at the highest levels -- i agree it is going to be very important to listen to them. there is a lot of rumors that at the highest levels they recognize that they are going to have to do more accommodation. if that is the case, i think the euro currency could really tumble and i think that would have much broader impact her

encouraging e sch ism, but discurrenting adp.nergy levels have really been reflecting that mixed activity. for example yesterday the charge lower -- >> but the dow is at a four year high and we have a terrible -- >> but they look at the russell. it's far from the year high and it's a broader based har kets. the dow is only 30 stocks about. >> we didn't get a selloff on a terrible adp number. >> we actually did have a selloff when we traded below the previous day's trading level and then we traded down 1390, the previous trading day was 1391..0 >> what with a cause disappointment tomorrow? >> it's my sperk difference that traders are looking at the market from a more technical perspective rather than a fundamental. as i mentioned, they're just hands in the air uncertain in terms of some of the correlations that they've been seeing from the fundamentals to the technicals. and then specifically some of the core hagss in the markets, that's more important right now than a weekly jobless data number. >> tomorrow is a monthly. and it's

tune in for the april adp jobs report expectations. 170,000 jobs.tune in for march factory orders down 1.6%. >> we are counting down to the jobs report. we are still on the session watch in europe with key manufacturing and employment data out of germany, france, and portugal. joining us now is the senior equity strategist for the advisers and jeff davis, chief investment officer. good to see you. it's god the adtrp numbers and how much do you expect to see ahead of the big friday jobs number? >> adp has a short-term effect and it's not all that well synched. people will be watching out for friday. the market may react for a half day. friday is the big day. >> friday. wait for that. do you believe that a lot of people say if that number is bad, it's good for the markets. >> unemployment numbers, that's what we are doing. we see a number out of adp that is 120 or something like that. that is not going to be good. the market is going to like that, believe it or not. >> maybe there is nor qe. you see the retreat in the marketss a reversal of fortune in

the adp report out today. how important is it?> very important because we have the numbers pretty weak today and we were able to brush it off. the claims tend to be a leading indicator and the last have been crummy. we know at the end of the day, jobs are slowing. companies are being able to deliver on earnings. to answer your question, earnings matter more, but we have to keep an eye on the u.s. economic data. >> you agree that claims key for investors right now, talk to us about the signals you are watching. what do you look for for the claims tomorrow? >> absolutely. so i am looking for claims to pull back a bit and head down. i think that will be important for the market and the stock market has been highly correlated to the behavior of jobless claims and it is a leading indicator. high frequency and we get them every week. this is a key variable going forward. if we don't see them pull back and they continue to push up, i think that will be a near term problem for the equity market. more broadly, we did have reports today or

i'm seeing economists coming in and lowering their estimates because of the adp report. i'm thinking 125, 130. >> the lowest i saw was 95 maybe. >> under 100, that's a number that brings the fed right back in. i think it's not that simple. but it could bring the for back in. i wrote you a checklist. that's the non-farm say roles number. i don't know if you have my checklist back there but it begins with weakens if we get into a zero handle, 0.8, 0.9, that brings the fed back in. if thein employment shoots the other way, if we start ticking up. but we need a couple of months of that to tick up. all of this pointing me towards an august decision. when i go to jackson hole, it's always a consequential meeting for reasons that are never expected. let's go on and take a look. inflation, i think we have some inflation working through the system right now. on the other side of that it's going to start ticking down. >> exactly. look for a zero handle. if i get there, it's going to blow up, if the fiscal cliff is going to happen, i think you need to check one or more of tease thi

the adp april report is out at 8:15 eastern time.orecast calling for an increase of 175,000 private sector jobs. then at 10:00 a.m. we get march factory orders expected to drop 1.5%. still with us, of course, our guest host chris watling. chris, i want to get your take on the adp numbers, hoping to get a little bit of insight on what we're going to see on friday with the nonfarm payroll numbers. your thoughts. >> it's key. better than last month's softer than expected number. they haven't done that much in the last few weeks. it a's good pointer of where we may end up. on the one hand weak housing seems to be a little bit better. there's probably a little but more employment associated with that. but equally there's a sense that the -- certainly if you look at the economic surprise index, the data's surprising to the downside relative to expectations in the states at the moment so i think this is absolutely key. if it's a poor number today and friday, i think the market's vulnerable anyway at the moment. so if you put in a poor payro

adp came in a little under what was expected.body's expecting such a weak number in this monthly payrolls report that we'll get on friday that i think unless we see a print below 100,000, the market may be okay with it. there's something called the weather pay back that a lot of traders are looking at right now. and we're seeing it in employment data. and what then means is because of the very warm winter, the numbers from january, february and march were a bit about inflated and we're seeing a statistical pay back. so there could be weakness in these number, but unless it's below 100,000 on friday, i think the market can hang on. >> so some weakness, but potentially priced in to the markets. if we do see a weak number on friday, how does that bode for the rest of the year? obviously things will slow down a bit more during the summer. >> yes, i think so. but again, i think it's a the degree of weakness. for instance, i think the average expectation is around 170,000. the whisper number is around 120,000 and again there is wiggle

>> adp jobs thursday and data on . before that home price index quite a bit of econo like the eurozoneor now. back to you. tupdate. mentioned, japan's in april.rs said the adjusted .1% fromumber of people witho jobs was million employment million. meanwhile, job e april. ministry s for each t try attribute a recoverers in somareas. jobcies in regions rose. for104. in about has topped 10 meanwhile meanwhile, the ministry openings in the regions are mostly all right, that' me for thiseave you with a >>> peoples northeast arovercoming the2011on't be businesses, entire you their suc"the roadsday at 1:00 "n former prime defending how his country through most challenging times n was 112011 when annation sparked fukushima of the sry ang accident at th >> translator: the government promotin power and failing ant. as the head of th government atike apologize >> kan als the government about the accident from nuclear agency and other feared the situati out ofent kan fukushi decided go i thought able to happening if i relevant >>

obviously we have some weak adp numbers. market's a little unsure here. the market is whispering around 1.50. my playbook is try to stay out of that range, say we get 1.75 we want to do one thing, we get 1.25 we want to do another. i'm looking at the 175 number. because if it comes in -- i'm sorry, the 125 number. if we come in weaker than expected, i want to buy mexico and sell u.s. dollars. today was a great example. when we saw those weaker than expected ism numbers on the employment side mexico weakened because they thought their exports would go down. if you get a weaker number here, actually, we expect quantitative easing talk to go up. so i want to buy mex. it's a little weird but think through it. i think it will work well. we're about 1298 right now. a profit about 1260 about this. it's just kind of a crazy play to look at. a weaker than expected number that actually could lead to dollar weakness overall. >> a surprise number to the upside though you think means dollar strength? >> yeah. i do. i would like to sell aussie on that because their rat

poor numbers today on the adp jobs. poor numbers on factory orders falling. it's all going the wrong way, and middle class incomes, they're also falling. why? because presidential policies undermine free market capitalism at every step. we're going to get into it in just a moment. >>> also this evening, just as president obama lands back in washington from afghanistan, immediately heads to two high dollar fundraisers. chris christie has essentially declared his candidacy for vice president. we are going to show you the take. personally, i think christie would make a hell of a good vip. we will debate whether he is just the hammer that mitt romney needs to whack obama and biden. >>> and a new congressional study out on obamacare shows businesses are going to drop employee health care plans left and right because obamacare is just too expensive. proof again that if upheld, obamacare will bring the u.s. closer to bankruptcy because of this misbegotten entitlement. first up, who is to blame for the humpty dumpty economy? economic growth sputtering around 2%. the

economic picture still mixed with the disappointing adp numbers. that's after yesterday's positive numbers on manufacturing. they are keeping a close eye on the friday's jobs report. the april jobs picture will be released friday morning. and later tonight, that is going to be the pricing. we'll see if it's below the expectations. sources i spoke with remain wary in light of competitors like apollo and others. zeroing in, investors are looking for positive earnings. a number of positive earnings results today from comcast, cvs, caremark, time warner, and mastercard. the global economy is having red flags today. the labor market and manufacturing sectors both in the spotlight in china and the euro zone. we hash it out right now on the "closing bell" exchange. bob pisani and rick santelli joining bill and myself. >> bob, why is it at a four-year high? >> people stop me in the street. it's crazy. there's two things. you mentioned the earnings. down from 1%, the earnings are continuing to be better. but i don't think people have a lot of alternatives a

the april numbers are the lowest adp has reported in seven months. iphone could soon have a serious challenger. tomorrow samsung will unveil the galaxy siii. the fun is getting a lot of buzz and could be named the official from of the 2012 olympics. samsung is a sponsor. >> cleanup underway after severe weather in the midwest including tornados that touchdown and parts of indiana. when damage to several homes and a barn. storms left behind damage in iowa. nobody was hurt. >> north and west of metro washington right now a severe thunderstorm warning in the fact. let's start there and show everybody where the storms are. it is actually a small area, a couple of storm cells here that have a history of hail and strong winds. it is for portions of loudon county the eastern panhandle frederick county this is the heaviest selling with the possibility of pale there. the weather service as a possibility of quarter sized hail and wind gusts of 60 miles per hour. there has been a separate cell farther north as a cross into areas west of frederick county marylan

the latest from the folks at adp, who process our paychecks, reporting fewer americans than we thought are getting them. 119,000 private sector jobs were added last month. that's tens of thousands fewer than experts predicted and the worst showing in seven months. factories not humming and orders slowing, posting their biggest drop in three years and you have a huge headache for the president that year, a recovery in doubt and a reelection as well. it is way too soon to say but market watcher larry glazer says the economy is losing steam and fast. larry, you were talking like this in the middle of some booming data. now we're getting some that confirm your slowdown views. which is real, what we saw if the boom period or now in the not so boom period? >> we were cautioning investors during the first quarter when everybody was getting carried away not to get carried away. the jobs data is nothing short of a disappointment not just for analysts but also for wall street investors. disappointing across the board. this comes on the heels of other disappointing data. we saw the with gdp, refl

adp data 183, markets open 150. a lot of data coming your way.e out your pencil and write it down april 113, nonfarm estimate which includes government and private sector 155, my guess that's coming down. claims data? 383,000. that's up 10. economists hoping for 370. continuing average coming up. continuing down that is for the prior weak, again, showing softening in the economy. lower gch dp. a change from the first print, 1.9%. biz investment up sharply, government another tick down 3.9%. inventories going lower. that may be a good sign, not so much inventory buildup. i'll be back at 10:30 with economists reaction to the data and how forecast for that super bowl of data, the payrolls may be changing. melissa. >> thank you very much. steve liesman, see you later. check in with rick santelli in chicago. rick. >> the nice thing about government data is there's a lot of different rabbit holes we can go down. my sources, friends, have been sending me one of the best. this is u.s. corporate profits. they were down over 4% in this gdp report. that's t

>> well, without a doubt it's going to be the adp and the bureau of labor statistics jobs report. and cautionary word, adp instead of being released wednesday will be released thursday due to the monday holiday. and they're both looking for headline numbers of 150,000. so, you know, i think we're getting accustom to being happy with less. and also out on thursday is our second look at first quarter gdp. it was poultry when we were at 2.2. the expectations are for it to be below 2%. all of these are important as we assess what's going on with europe and how it may impact us more negatively. >> absolutely. julia, my last question to you then is when are we getting out of neutral? when are we going to go into something a little higher in terms of gears here? >> well, i mean, the best news we've had of lately is inflation is set to decline. consumers should get a little boost to their purchasing power from falling gasoline prices and perhaps falling bacon prices as your previous segment suggested. but i think the bad news is that the headwinds to europe and also in china, we've seen a

yesterday the payroll company adp delivered some disappointing employment data. the dow lost as much as 87 points before closing down 10 the nasdaq added nine. >>> new study by commonwealth fund finds the united states spends more per person than 12 other industrialized nations on health care. in 200 the u.s. spent $8,000 a year on medical services, about $3,000 more than the next two countries. the study also found that the extra spending doesn't necessarily translate into better health care. >>> news corp.'s board of directors is sticking with the boss. on wednesday the board said it has full confidence in rupert murdoch. the announcement comes a day after a panel of british lawmakers said murdoch is unfit to lead his media empire after last year's tabloid phone-hacking scandal. the ruling could force news corp. to sell its shares in satellite network british sky broadcasting. >>> amazon says it will start making its own television shows. the company plans to develop original series this year. consumers will be able to watch on its streaming service. amazon ins

adp jobs data on thursday and then the main jobs data on friday.efore that home price index to deal with. quite a bit of economic data. but looks like the eurozone really the big focus for now. back to you. >> thanks a lot for that update. now, as he just mentioned, japan's unemployment rate rose in april. the internal affairs ministry said the seasonally adjusted jobless rate is 4.6%. a rise of .1% from march. the number of people without jobs was over 3 million while those in employment numbered just about 63 million. meanwhile, job availability in japan rose for the eleventh month in a row in april. the labor ministry says there were 79 positions for each 100 job seekers last month. the ministry attributes the increase to a recovery among retailers in some areas. job vacancies in disaster-hit regions rose. the figure for miyagi prefecture stood at 104. that's the first time in about five years the number has topped 100. meanwhi meanwhile, the ministry says job openings in the disaster regions are mostly construction related. all right, that's th

the adp, national employment report today suggests the private sector added about 130,000 jobs in may, similar to the number last month. it reinforces and confirms that hiring has slowed down after some strong months in the winter that may have been boosted by warm weather. >> tom: let's take a look at the past year's worth of the data that your firm co-authors with aadp. you number these numbers wells showing job growth has slowed considerably since november andecembert is half the rate it was at the end of the last year. why is that? >> part of it is that overall economic growth has slowed and employment is well-known to lag behind that. so when gdp growth slows as it has early in the year, a few months later employment starts to slow as well. but i also think that there are other considerations that are weighing on businesses's decision to hire. some of that comes from across the pond where uncertainty about the resolution of the eurozone crisis is probably giving pause to employers before plunging into hiring. and of course towards the end thi year we had the concern that through

that number by the adp, suggesting 110, 115,000 new jobs, that's not going to cut it harris. month, just to keep pace with the increase in population and new people entering the work force, the people graduateing from college, immigrants who come into the country. so that number is very subpar, and one of the problems i have with the official numbers, the labor department puts out, harris, is that i think we are very much understating the unemployment problem in this country. for example, one statistic that came out recently is that almost one out of three americans has been out of a job -- that is unemployed has been out of a job for more than a year, harris. that's a real tragedy. i think the real unemployment rate in this country is closer to about 10 percent. harris: wow. and when you consider what's going on in europe, spain may be the next to need a bailout with, with unemployment around 25 percent, that will no doubt have a ripple effect, too. >> it will. you know, the big problem, obviously, europe has this problem where they have very large welfare states, very gener

the private payroll company adp said that the country has added 130,000 workers in the month of may that was a short of what economists had predicted ... stocks are responding we have seen a bit of a turnaround of the doubt and to the s&p is a bit higher than the nasdaq ... 401k fees could reduce savings considerably that's the news ... a report shows the average american couple could pay nearly $155,000 in fees for a 401k planned throughout their careers ... there is a debate as to whether this is overstated said the government is requiring further disclosure the fda is rejecting a request by archer-daniels midland and others to call their processed product anything other than high fructose corn syrup ... stadiums do it.. so why not train stations? the c-t-a is getting ready to sell naming rights and sponsorships. the c-t-a is offering businesses an opportunity to get as rail station named after them. it's the latest move to generate more revenue from non- traditional sources and help head more threats of fare hikes and service cuts. the stations up for naming rights are addison belmont

we're waiting on the jobs numbers from adp ahead of friday's big jobs report. stock were boosted yes it because of manufacturing. the bloomberg maryland index was hired on strong gains for source of fire. people are turning to dark m eat alternative to balls and chicken breats. it is an early start to the grilling season. americans may be willing to spend more on mom. consumer suspend an average of $152 this year on guifts for mom. at the new york stock exchange, i'm jane king, bloomberg news, for wbal-tv 11 news. >> 62 degrees on tv hill. we will check with syrup for problems on the roadways -- will check in with sarah. >> keith mills has the answer for last night's orioles games against the yankees. >> here is a look at last night's winning maryland lottery numbers. do not throw those tickets away . i'm really going to miss you. my new apartment isn't that far away. it's 4.2 miles away ! with this droid razr... motorola... verizon 4g lte... video... skype. you're gonna get lost. this has gps. well, that makes me feel better. me too. i'll go get two from the b

the may adp unemployment report out.t to call for an increase of 150,000 in private sector payrolls. weekly jobless claims due at 8:30 a.m., expected to remain unchanged. also growth expected to be revised down from 2.2 to 1.9%. at 10:00, the may chicago pmi is out. cleveland fed president speaks at an nab conference 8:00 a.m. eastern. and u.s. retailers reporting may same store sales despite any boost for more's day. total sales forecast to rise just 2%. in here, great food demands a great presentation. so at&t showed corporate caterers how to better collaborate by using a mobile solution, in a whole new way. using real-time photo sharing abilities, they can create and maintain high standards, from kitchen to table. this technology allows us to collaborate with our drivers to make a better experience for our customers. [ male announcer ] it's a network of possibilities -- helping you do what you do... even better. ♪ >>> if you're just joining us, these are your headlines. markets end the month in dramatic fashion with r

private payroll processing company adp said one under 19,000 jobs were added last month far short of000 projected ... is the fewest number of workers added in seven months this is just a preview of what we might hear from the labor department when it reports the monthly job growth numbers and unemployment figures coming out friday wall street will be waiting ... there's a pullback in demand for aircraft and morgan stanley economist say that the manufacturing sector is showing impressive resilience and slowing global demand ... and facebook expects to market its initial public offering to investors in the canning and might go public by the end of the month that would be the largest internet ipo in history ... discounts and cheap financing are at the lowest in seven years for car dealers the biggest incentives are offered on the larger gas guzzling vehicles ... general motors is spending the most on incentives to get people to buy their cars ... more people are buying stick shift cars lately those models are typically cheaper than those with automatic transmissions ... stocks are curre

payroll processor adp says private businesses only added 118,000 jobs in april less than 177,000 economistson the bright side leading economists see steady job gains for the rest of 2012 and predict hiring will be strong enough to push unemployment below 8% by november. election day. >>> coming up, it was a long road to the presidency for barack obama, his struggles written in letters to an ex- girlfriend vailable for you to read. >> if you haven't planted your spring vegetables, derek thomas here with the truth about planting mythtips to get the best bloom good morning derek first let's check with holly. >> hey, if you hasn't made your weekend plans yet, then i have the event for you as we are live, american visionary art museum where they are gearing up for their kinetic sculpture race you know what i love about this race, amazingly whacky, creative but they give away the best bribes award. we will talk about the awards and more and how you can get a good spot along the race route. all live later on fox 5 morning news stay with us ♪ okay, so who ordered the cereal that can help lower chol

you were the founder, i believe, of a payroll company, adp. is mitt romney's private sector experience fair game here? you've had to run for office numerous times and people have known your record. >> i have. that private sector company now has 50,000 employees in 23 countries across america. 5,000 are employed in my home state. that's what we ought to be looking at. why should romney be able to escape responsibility when he talks about judge me on my business record and it stinks. that's what we're looking at. that's not for america. that's not what america needs right now. america needs real job creation and real uplifting for people's opportunities in the future to get their kids an education and be able to get on with life. >> so, senator, do you think it's vital that the obama campaign continues to highlight the kind of private sector experience that mitt romney is talking about? if he takes people's pension and bankrupts the company and a few people walk with a ton of money, that is important, is it not? >> it's important to know. it's a

be in the report on friday based upon -- the jobs report on friday based upon what you see from this adpeport. >> there is no necessary link between one and the other, and also it's very very dangerous to predict friday's report. people get it wrong all the time on the upside and the down side. i would say that signs are that the recovery continues. it's continuing at a moderate pace. we have had 25 consecutive months of job growth. we have had 4 million private sector jobs created. the pace of job creation may slow a bit relative to the beginning of the year but positive in the right direction. continued progress. >> larry you take those economic numbers, who is messaging the economy better? >> well, so far, obviously the obama team is, because they have had a general election focus campaign, whereas romney until very recently has had to fight an internal battle. i'm not an economist, and therefore, i have a right to be confused. [ laughter ] >> absolutely. >> every day i read a different report. you know, it's -- one day it looks great. the next day it looks terrible. you just don't kn

>> tomorrow is about the adp report. that sentiment and make people feel much more nervous about the global outlook. >> you are up. what are you looking for? >> we look at cyclerships of the market. we are not day traders. the usual suspects will be the headline news like jobs and gdp and europe. we look at the market like a big onion with multiple layers. if you peel across, i will give you two examples. the spread between the two and 10-year bond is yield flattening. that's a recession potentially. the vix forward curve is projecting higher volatility. not good signs. >> we have to go. what do you watch? >> i agree. people should set their alarms for the 8:30 gdp members. we work and think there is potential for the number to be stronger than expected. chemicals is a bell weather of the economy and early indicator of what's going on in the manufacturer sector. we are see a lot of investment and people being put back to work and we are bullish about the economy in general. >> thank you. thank you for giving us your thou

the bulls have retreated on worst than expected adp data. now, all eyes turn to the economic data for tomorrow. estimates are for a jobs gain of 168,000 in the nonfarm payrolls while unemployment is expected to remain at 8.2%. in today's "closing bell" exchange, maria and i are joined by bob pisani. also, joe grecko. he's with us from the floor. of course, late today we've been seeing a decline as well but earnings or economic data, what do you think is the bigger indicator? in times of crisis, we saw europe pushing around the stock market. if things calmed down, earnings matter a lot more. and certain days here, you can see earnings clearly affecting the markets. >> the reality of the market year to date, it's been earnings this quarter, it's been earnings. the market is up. >> rear, since december 21st, everything just calmed down. before that, remember, june, july, august, september, october, every day when europe moved up, we moved up, europe moved down, we moved down. >> joe, help us out. earnings or economic data, what is more importan

and the fewest since seven months expectations were for quite a bit more now adp typically is higher than what the labor department says which gives its report on friday and labor are reported a similar gain of 120,000 jobs so expectations are fairly low enough for the jobs are coming up on friday the key is in whether or not this will turn into a longer trend because we some of the gains of around the corner of a million which is what is needed to get unemployment back down and more people are coming back off the sidelines looking for work and things tightened up the certainly impact economy of what the earnings for consideration include the couple from the east bank of the base of clorox records that profit dropped 13% $132 million port scan hit with much higher commodity costs even though it did just how the new price increase. and every film based peat coffee and tea sought to profit plunged 39% to $3.4 million that is coffee bean prices soared by 44 percent. market is down after the dow hit more than a four year high yesterday and 13,000 to under 79 blower now by 44 points for t

the payroll company adp says employers added 119,000 workers, compared to more than 200,000 the prior the figures come two days before the monthly jobs market report. >>> 17 companies that use the euro say the unemployment rate rose to nearly 7%. and about half are officially in recession. >>> target says it will phase out amazon's kindle e-reader at its stores this month. the retailer say its won't carry the reader anymore because of a possible conflict of interest. some say it could be because apple is going to open kiosks, where it will sell kindle's rival, the ipad. >>> a poll by travel and leisure magazine found travelers complained about la guardia's check-in and security process. readers say it's the worst when it comes to design and cleanliness. travelers voted minneapolis the best airport in the country. that's your money watch. for more, go to cbsmoneywatch.com. in new york, i'm alexis christoforous. >>> illit -- a litter of puppies and their mother are saved from being euthanized. ask they have dr. phil to thank. the dogs were hours from being put down. when he was contacte

all the data, you look at the adp numbers, they point to a soft jobs figure. granted consumers may have a little more money in their pockets from lower gas prices, but gasoline and food prices are still higher than they were a year ago. and if we look at consumer spending, which is stagnating, consumer incomes, which have stagna stagnated, and we see consumers are dipping into savings, this can't last, we have to -- >> so you're a bear on this story? excludeing the eurozone you would be a bear, is that fair? >> not really. because excludeing europe if we can do that, then stocks are still more attractive than other asset classes. but i wouldn't be buying them tomorrow. i'd wait for this correction to play out and buy them in the fall. >> you'd wait. what about this -- i see two sides to this. you've got like the chicago fed report today was lousy. a lot of these local fed reports have been lousy on manufacturing. okay. but, you've also got a 1.5% ten-year treasury. whatever it finished today, 155, does that not at some point boost the value and the valuations

. >>> and the payroll company adp says it rpeers businesses are -- appears businesses are hiring fewer new employees than predicted. the major markets in europe sell 7% in may. traders are concerned greece could drop the euro and spain may need a bailout. but investors are encouraged to find out that spanish leaders are in washington, meeting with treasury secretary timothy geithner and the head of the international monetary fund. there are plans that spain cannot afford to overhaul its troubled banking sector. >>> here at home. several retailers, including target, macy's, tj maxx and nordstrom. the average company saw a 4% increase over last year. and the results could give the economy a much-needed boost. a new report shows the economy grew more slowly than expected in the first three months of the year. >>> and mortgage rates are at another record low. according to freddie mac, the fixed rate on a 30-year loan is 3.75%. and a 15-year loan has dropped just 2.97%. and that's your money watch. for more business headlines, head to cbsmoneywatch.com. at the new york stock exchange, i'm a

the adp number was disappointing. below expectations. to this election. >> part of me feels like the economy is going to be the decider but i keep going back and looking at demographics and i think it will be close. the republican party whether it is mitt romney himself or people at the state level are givering the democrats more and more to call after republican want to bees on issues of demographics. yesterday debbie shults said i would like mitt romney to tell us where he stands on the paycheck fairness check. more on the war on women and where mitt romney stands on the issues. i don't know how much the economy is going to hurt mitt romney going forward. >> i want to talk a bit about campaign strategy. we'll see if you guys are going to match him. trivia we ask when was the last time the republican won the white house without a bush or a nixon on the ticket? the answer is 1928. herbert hoover and charles curtis ticket. we'll be right back. you're watching "the daily rundown." sorry. sore knee. blast of cold feels nice. why don't you u

>>mark: a flat open expected on wall street one day after a disappointing report from adp.vate sector only added 119,000 jobs for april. we are awaiting the weekly unemployment report but more importantly, it is tomorrow when april jobs report comes out, we will see how hiring feared in the month of april in the u.s.. general motors earned $1 billion in the first quarter but losses in europe late on those results. >>darya: here is a story we're following, cal state university employees have overwhelmingly voted to authorize a series of today's strikes if they cannot get a new contract. the union has proposed rolling strikes where groups would go out on strike for two days each, one group following the next. officials with the university system say a strike is premature as bargaining is ongoing. the four did thousand student system is dealing with a loss in state funding. i can't stand these spots. those spots are actually leftover food and detergent residue that can redeposit on your dishware during the rinse cycle. gross. jet-dry rinse agent helps wash them away so the onl