the latest figure from the adp research institute. the reading was revised lower for june from 227,000 to 229,000. report friday, looking for an increase with the jobless rate holding steady at 5.3%> a a lot of people say that is full employment. erik: president obama taking his case for the iran nuclear deal to the american people. he will make a speech at american university in washington. his address follows meetings with jewish leaders. they are afraid of the deal could threaten israeli security. earlier, sir martin sorrell talked about the future. sir martin: highly educated. >> a bigger middle-class. sir martin: the deal with iran, the basis is what is going to 10.en over the next to 15 years whether the middle class will demand more reform from the regime. that is the bet politicians are making. erik: the white house chose american university for the speech because jfk spoke there for an arms deal with the soviet. see the address on bloomberg at 11:20 eastern time. of openness to roman catholics who have divorced and then remar

i want to show the adp numbers out weaker than expected.ers came up 185,000 for the month of july weaker than the expectation which called for 215,000 jobs. june was revised downward we have not seen a big change in futures expecting a good rally at the start of trading. this is indicative of an economy. >> unfortunately, the same headlines. this is the obama economy. hoping this is not the new normal and that a change in economic little leadership in january 27th 10 with tax reform and other things we will see the u.s. economy take off. as long as obama's president but this regulatory policies including obamacare, this is the news we continue to get. maria: ready much the same story as you say. commodities as oil hovers their multi-month lows and its impact on what you pay. back in a moment. now there's a smart new way to protect and manage your home. at&t digital life home security and automation. digital life gives you round-the-clock monitored home security for your family's peace of mind. plus you can keep an eye on your home while you

right now the dow is up 64 points. >> we barely mentioned the adp. let's get to rick santelli in chicago. >> hello, carl. once again grading on a curve has some dangers and the handicapping of why adp number was on the weaker side and looking at how it all averages out and factoring in gdp. we do have issues regarding the fed. and that seems to be a big theme. we're already looking at interest rates and equities firming long before the data released at 8:15 eastern. look at a one-day chart of ten-year note yields and we had the outlier where we closed below on change. that has evaporated. now twos are trading above higher yield. fives are getting close to their on change. tens are over it and 30s never went below it. look at a two-day chart of bunds. the same. for the first time in a while, getting traction of higher yields and selling. open up to june 1st and you see what i mean. if we now look at the relationship between our ten-year notes and theirs and this chart, i love this chart because there's so many things going on here. but if you really w

>> friday's jobs report is the big deal but today we get the adp employment report.his is the gauge of private payrolls expected to increase by 215,000 for the month of july. that is down from 237,000 hosted in june. checking on u.s. futures they suggest a positive open. s&p by more than 4 and the nasdaq by more than 12. jobs will be one of the many big topics we'll tackle later this morning with federal reserve governor jay powell. that exclusive interview kicks off 7:30 a.m. eastern time. >> do we have you to thank for that? >> no, we have the southern company. >> oh, okay, good. >> we've had him on before but i believe, joe, this is the first time a federal reserve governor sat on the squawk set. so as is every day we will make additional cable history today. >> fantastic. >> isn't that great? >> who was that? lockhart? >> yesterday. >> unless something really changes. >> right. >> so the ipo would be -- he dissuades him -- but excuse me -- >> quarter point. >> i was on the set yesterday. >> so interest rates will be a quarter point. >> no, actually, they will be

adp says was created in private sector jobs. she decline from the previous months of 237,000. what does that tell you? jack: that there is not necessarily a lot of hiring going on. the big that will act the july number is that there is not a lot of firing going on. we will see how the adp number translates into this number. is anything but a perfect correlation to many months, gdp reported a decline. better.ey're getting relates to hires versus fires. if we are seeing fewer fires, that could end up with a big number and i bet the markets would react. also worth pointing out that in addition to the 185,000 private sector jobs created in the month of july, in the month of june, they revised the number down to 237. jack: 8000. right. how much impact do you think friday's number, how much number --, steve think that number will have on the rate hike in september and december? the language is basically said they want to raise rates. any kind of good member, a combination of what happens on the wage front versus a good seasonably adju

. >> caller: i'm thinking about adp?t to tell you, i'll see you adp and raise you with pay c ch democratex. >> that concludes the lightning round. a you need in one place that lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim? for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this. >>> last week i told you that while i like the concept of natural pet food as an increasingly health conscience consumer, it was too competitive, including fresh pet, some considered a disappointing quarter last night it plunged 19% to all-time low at $11.70. however the initial reactions may be too negative given the stock only closed down 87 cents still off 20% for the year and fallen to $13.72. is it now finally down to levels it is safe to buy. i want you at that hear from ceo of fresh pet. welcome back to "mad money." >> thank you jim. >> it's been a roller coaster. stock has come down, what gets

july adp report out at 8:30 a.m. eastern. we also get trade deficit figures and ism services index. time [ inaudiblediscovery communications. now interesting if you look at u.s. futures we're now a bit higher in premarket trade. the dow up about 7. nasdaq up about 8. apple shares up slightly in premarket trade. still trading in correction territory one of the 13 stocks, in fact, on the dow trading 10% or lower from recent highs. >> back to earnings, etsy second quarter loss doubled due to higher marketing costs. they jumped 77% because of spending on product listing ads. the company says the strong dollar could hurt demand for goods this quarter which could slow the pace of gross merchandise sells. they fell 16% in after hours trade. germany off by one. >> shares in coach climbed off recent lows after it's q-4 earnings beat consensus estimates. revenues were down 12% compared to last year but they offered signs the company's turn around process is gaining momentum. >> there's u.s. retail earnings due before the end of the week. second kwar results from ralph lauren and kate spade la

this came after a separate report from adp which showed u.s.conomy generated 185,000 jobs last month. that was below consensus forecast of 215,000. initially sparked concern the report could disappoint tomorrow. we saw several bodies including goldman sachs upgrading the forecast. you may wonder why so many are paying attention to job figures. we have the federal reserve hike next month. many are wondering if the fed will react next month or push towards december. based on the report yesterday, more and more are calling for lift- lift- lift-off in september. >> thank you nancy is. >>> still ahead on "way too early" p two contenders making news in 2 sports world. one of them marco rubio, will tell you what he said that drew boo's from the crowd. >>> which could be heading to the vatican to meet the pope? one that could have to watch his mouth a will little bit. those and more stories when we come right back. ♪ can a business have a mind? a subconscious. a knack for predicting the future. reflexes faster than the speed of thought. can a business

get more clue on that, we have the key nonfirm payrolls data coming out friday and also the private adp jobs numbers later today. so investors may stay on the sidelines ahead of that. >>> moving on to other markets in the asia-pacific region. investors in china shrugged off upbeat data on service sector activity. the shanghai composite slid 1.65%, closing at 3694 as some traders booked profits from yesterday's rally. indonesia closed up 1.5%, 4850 following the release of the country's gdp figures. the economy grew 4.67% compared to the same period last year from april to june. that's the slowest pace since 2009. financial stocks rose sharply in afternoon trading. shares in hong kong rebounded from two days of losses. the market in malaysia gaining by a fraction as we see there following unexpectedly strong trade figures for june. export s surged 5% as shipments to china increased. >>> a record number of households in ja wpan are on welfare due to an increase of those who need support. ministry officials said recipients in may stood at 1.6 million, up from the previous month. households

wednesday, adp. international trade and ism. and friday is the big monthly employment report. the federal reserve will be paying close attention to that last one. along with a number of others. steve tells us now what the central bank will be watching. >> whether the fed hikes raise in september for the first time in more than nine years depends on the issues. two keys, jobs and inflation. making the july pay roll report coming this friday an important one. >> the biggest issue is employment. we need to see two solid months of employment improvement. >> economists expect one this week. the forecast for 215,000 jobs and for the unemployment rate to remain at 5.3% for july. still the lowest since 2007. >> it is moving more rapidly than at any point when they got to the first tightening other than early '80s. >> they said they only needed to see some improvement. even a moderately strong august employment report could seal the deal. the inflation data also has to cooperate. >> i think that's where the real movement will be. are they really comfortable it will makes it to 2%. >> w

the private pay roll company adp estimates that private sector pay rolls grew by 185,000 jobs last month. that's lower than a month ago. and 30,000 below the wall street forecast. investors tend to use this report to try to figure out what the government's monthly report will look like when it comes out on friday. in this case also to see, or the gauge what the fed may or may not do in september. >> an early indicator of the friday jobs report came in weaker than expected. the source of the weakness? the oil patch where jobs have been cut back due to lower crude prices and the export sector hurt by the stronger dollar. outside of those sectors, job growth looks pretty healthy. >> last year we were getting $250,000 on average and that's what it would be this year if it were not for energy and what's going on in the nonvehicle manufacturing. i think fundamentally, we're still between 200, 225 k. >> a separate report the biggest part of the economy, services. it surged past in july and hit the best level since 2005. early indications are that growth in the third quarter may be closer to 3%

the adp report will offer a read on the health of private employment. also on the data front, international trade, an important economic indicator and weekly mortgage appliagtions figures are out. and that is what to watch for on wednesday. >> and baby boomers have too much risk in their retirement portfolio, so says a recent study by fidelity which found that many older 401(k) account holders, like me, had higher acquisition to equity than their age. many don't regularly rebalance their portfolios. >> but what if you're one of the 77 million u.s. workers who don't even have a 401(k) or an employer-sponsor employer-sponsored retirement plan. fear not. what do you have to do to secure your retirement income if you don't have that pension plan, the 401(k)? >> reporter: that's almost half of workers. there are other ways to save that you should know about and that's starting with an i.r.a. an individual retirement account is the best way to start saving. a traditional or a roth i.r.a. and the i.r.a., yes, does not allow you to save as much as a 401(k), wit

adp is replacing the lines in the northeast and midwest. you basically want to make sure the system is as efficient as possible. sometimes a new line and sometimes rebuilding an existing line. it's not a one size fits all approach. >> reporter: magnifying the need for grade upgrade is the new emission standard set by the epa. coal-fired plants are being shut. that powers millions of homes. that generation needs to be replaced with new plants which also means new transmission lines. but the new system doesn't look like they did a hundred years ago. they are meant to have higher capacity so they can work for another 60 to 80 years. in ft. wayne, indiana, the company is upgrading its storm station bringing extra high voltage power to the region. projects like this do a lot to improve reliability. they do a lot to ensure that we can withstand the loss of any components in the transmission system. that's important to large customers. >> reporter: because when it comes to turning the lights on, reliability is the name of the game. for "nightly bu

we had an adp number soft on wednesday.e any number above 200,000 is considered a decent number right now. >> that's right. steve gleason pointed out we've had 58 straight months of very strong job gains. i think it will be hard to derail how we feel about the local market right now and tomorrow unless we get a big, bad surprise. i don't know that that's going to happen. i hope not. >> thanks, courtney. >> with the close, we decline 120 on the industrial average. we will have that very important jobs number for you tomorrow morning at 8:30 eastern right here on cnbc. we'll handicap it coming up now as we look at more earnings and whether or not you're buying the dip. it's the second hour of "closing bell" with kelly evans. i'll see you tomorrow. >>> welcome to "closing bell", everybody. that face was for the market. i'm kelly evans. the dow down 118 points on the close. that is the lows of the session. the nasdaq at one point today, down 2%. closing 1.6% showing 83 points for the index. still 5056 is the level. the s&p givi

ism number was positive but on the other hand adp number was a little weak. i don't have any inside information here but you nailed it, what is the fed going to do? this is the key number. last couple weeks ago i spoke to a guy that worked for geithner and runs money for asset management. he thinks they will do it in september. largely because they want to do it. bill gross said like the sick patient who wants to get up to see if they can walk around. i think that is the excuse. maria: think dennis locker, jo, said we will raise rates in september -- lockhart. that is really bad news would indicate we wouldn't. >> anything above 200,000 seems like would be number enough to encourage them to actually take that final step to raise rates a little bit. anything past september, it would certainly put markets in this strange holding pattern, right? maybe trading in a range. could probably hurt economy longer term potentially according to some people who are a little bit concerned about too late. maria: what you're both saying that the federal reserve wants to raise

it fell briefly after the adp numbers disappointed, then the isn services number of cayman better than expected -- the isn services number came in that are than expected. there are a lot of fed officials talking. atlanta's dennis lockard said the bank is a most ready to raise rates in september. president obama is taking his case for the iraqi nuclear deal to the american people today. eases crippling sanctions on the islamic republic. detaileddent made a sales pitch at a speech at american university in washington. president obama: some have argued that it showed the futility of negotiations, but in fact it was our willingness to negotiate that helped america rally the world to our cause. it secured international participation in an unprecedented framework of commercial and financial sanctions. fromet: u.s. lawmakers both parties who oppose the deal are threatening to vote it down, but as long as the president can keep majorities below the two-thirds majority, it will stand. mark: officials have confirmed that the airplane wing that washed up that come from malaysia air flight 370. th

stocks following the slightly disappointing adp report and now our attention turns to tomorrow.get that july jobs report. futures indicating a lower open. the dow off by around 11 points. this as oil prices continue to move lower. >> let's give you a run down of what to watch this trading day. weekly jobless claims are out at 8:30 a.m. eastern. the number of people filing for unemployment benefits is expected to increase from the previous week. the fed says it needs to see a sustained recovery in the labor market before it decides to raise rates. networks report before the opening bell. >> second quarter loss nearly tripled such as the battery factor and new model x offset higher sales. tesla's operating loss beat forecast and revenue rose 24%. ceo elon musk says tesla may expand their production. shares of the stock falling nearly 6% in after hours trade down a similar amount here in europe. let's talk more with the auto analyst at isi group. george tesla losing more money than expected. that shouldn't be a surprise because this is a company in it's growth phase. no? >> exactly

adp below consensus. ism services very strong.s in that 220,000 area. one thing that's a big swing factor is going to be state and local hiring. we think it's on the upswing after having run below consensus for a long time but now we think it could be hiring going on at the state and local level. >> any more fallout from the powell on yesterday, fed governor, sitting fed governor, on the set with us, versus lockhart the day before, who sounded more hawkish than powell did. >> a lot of chatter about that yesterday with lockhart suggesting that september was a done deal. and then powell was sitting right in this chair yesterday and joe, you were there, we went at him three times on this and the third one was a little bend on it where he said the time is coming, the fomc said, but he would not say september was a done deal. the question was powell undoing it, on different pages when it comes to making up your mind on september. >> why do they have to be in agreement anyway? >> they don't. we're just trying to read the tea leaves, und

wednesday we get the latest report on jobs from the private sector from adp, often a good predictor oft jobs report that will come out on friday. economists expect an increase of 215,000 jobs in the month of august. an unemployment rate of 5.2%, slightly lower than last month. we will find out if automakers are on pace to sell more than 70 million vehicles in the u.s. this year when they report their latest sales numbers. thursday brings us a potential market move from the ecb on whether it will hold or change interest rates. we'll get the latest earnings report from medtronic and finally star wars fans will be feeling the force next week with the force open their wallets after disney unveiled its new line of star wars toys online starting wednesday afternoon. over the course of 18 hours more products from the film "star wars the force unwakens" will be unveiled around the world. i'm mandy drury, get all your business news on cnbc. >>> next, serving the faithful. how a family-owned business 50 years in the making is preparing for the pope and the wave of people expected. all: milk! mil

we have that disappointing adp report. yields were down and then the better than expected ism report and yields were up and also helping the dollar. quick look at the dollar today and we also have super thursday for sterling and that's really crucial. 15597. >> still to come on worldwide exchange, awaiting a triple whammy from the bank of england. we go live to thread needle street where julia is on stand by to preview super thursday. stay tuned. female announcer: you're on the right track to save big during sleep train's triple choice sale. for a limited time you can choose up to 48 months interest-free financing on a huge selection of tempur-pedic models. or choose to save hundreds on simmons beautyrest mattress sets. you can even choose $300 in free gifts with sleep train's most popular stearns & foster mattresses. the triple choice sale ends soon at sleep train. ♪ sleep train ♪ your ticket to a better night's sleep ♪ >> shares suffering heavy losses. outlook on the back of weak second quarter earnings. in light of the

. >> last week's adp number did slightly disappoint. so are expectations slightly tempered today? >> i think they are. they're looking for around 225,000. this will be on par with what we saw last month. keeping that average around 220,000 which is the pace of hiring since the start of the year. keep in mind that the fed is looking for further improvement in the u.s. labor market so simply more of the same. doesn't necessarily imply that the u.s. labor market is taking additional steps in the right direction. >> how has the recent drop impacting the jobs picture. >> we are certainly seeing a decline in the energy sector in hiring in the energy sector and remember these are high wage jobs so that is certainly put ago digsal downward pressure on the wage component and wage growth has been the missing component with average hourly earnings stagnant since the end of the recession. >> they have been positive for 50 consecutive months but they're accurately absorbing the slack in the labor market. so arguably more important than the headline increase we will be watching that average hou

hiring still decent as we saw in the month of july as private payroll tracker adp says there was a gain pace of what we saw in july. manufacture and construction on the rise a good sign for home building on the pickup over the past several months. economists are expecting the labor department to have a gain of 225,000 jobs on friday one employment rate steady at 5.3%. tesla reports its 2nd quarter earnings at the closing bell today and investors and analysts will be closely watching for whether or not tesla is on pace to hit elon musk's stated goal of 55,000 deliveries this year. and the model x crossover is expected to help them reach the goals. apple is sliding and it's down again this morning after a stock rating downgrade from a bank of america analyst who thinks there will be a lot of pressure on apple stock in the near term and iphone sales slow down from their meteoric rise over the past year. apple has lost more than $100 billion in market value since its hit a high in february. overall the market looking to snap a three session losing skid. let's check the big board. up across

. >>> we have adp private sector jobs report for payrolls in the month. increase but fewer than expected. came in 185,000 jobs. the expectation was for 210,000 jobs. it is a little bit of a disappointment but always a precursor for the big government labor jobs report out on friday. where are the greatest jobs? with us fox business exclusive, korn/ferry ceo and indeed chief economist. first off what are we expecting here, tara? >> i mean i think we're expecting a another good, strong, healthy month in the labor market on friday. there have been some mixed signals about exactly the strength but somewhere over 200,000 jobs created this month which is still doing quite well. liz: gary, listen, ceos call you when they need to fill really decent job positions, high paying ones. are you getting more calls today? does that mean you see from the trenches more demand for big jobs? >> well, you know i think the market is healthy. the job market undoubtedly is healthy. you have low unemployment. you have big companies this month that stepped up hiring. on the other

i know we haven't had a fed meeting, but we've had an adp number, one of two jobs numbers that was aisappointing. the water cooler topic of the day is 10-year highs on a variety of subindices, with regard to the 10-year headline pop and ism nonmanufacturing. now if you're going to pick an aspect of the economy to be shifting from second to third, you would want it to be the service sector. i have nothing against manufacturing, which would all come together. but we do see the service sector, the biggest swath of the economy, at least depicted by the ism, respondents and of course the people who put together the survey and ask the questions. but let's rise above all that on face value, why do we look at data at all? why do we look at the ism data and then -- grab the telephone if we're traders and invest? and push the stock market higher, yields higher. even fed funds futures lower. which means maybe the fed moves closer on tightening? well the answer is simple -- because it is supposed to be a signal that gives us a notion about the direction of the economy. and it's not just the econ

of friday's jobs report, hiring at private businesses slowing in july according to payroll processor adp. 185,000 jobs last month, down from 229,000 in june. all right, coming up, right after the break. donald trump is going to tell us how he's preparing for the big debate tomorrow. >>> also, we're talking to a 92-year-old who's voting for the first time in her life. it's all happening here exclusively on "the intelligence report," i'll see you back here in 2. . trish: welcome back, everyone. support for donald trump keeps growing and growing, he's the front-runner going into tomorrow night's big debate, and the reason for that, i would say anyway, is a lot of voters are saying he connects with them. he's real, and they're energized by him. well one woman is so energized she decided to register to vote for the first time in 92 years to cast a ballot for donald trump as president of the united states. she joins me right now, beada corum of knoxville, tennessee is on the phone. beada, welcome, great to have you here. what is it you like so much about donald trump? beada? can you hear me? b

michael: you will get the adp report on wednesday.40 year low during the survey week for the july payrolls number. people will be watching jobless claims as well in terms of thinking about what happens with the fed in september. erik: thank you, very much. here's a look at some of our top headlines this morning. a 10% climb in the second quarter profits for hsbc. they posted profits of about $6.6 billion. hsbc also said it is selling his brazilian business a cache the estimate in at $5.2 billion. three german automakers are buying nokia's digital mapping. bmw, audi, and daimler, will they $3.1 billion for here and each will get a share of the business. it will supply map data for about 80% of cars navigational systems in america north america and europe. software will be available nationwide a week from today from at&t and will include unlimited talking and testing -- texting, and large gigabyte data . it will encourage tv subscribers to add wireless. stephanie: now for a bit of news i know you care about, especially if you follow thi

until wednesday when we get the adp report, and that people will start to recalibrate .get the jobs report, friday we are expecting no real change in the pattern we have seen. 225,000 jobs created. we are anticipating the mix will be about the same. brendan: what is the number down or up that would cause you surprise looking at the jobs number? mike: the lien for people is below 200,000,s people will back up. -- people will back off. --nie: whitest janet yellen why does janet yellen put so much emphasis on -- mckee, thank you so much. the lead story today is oil again. ,t has simply broken down another level. we saw brent crude go to 51. nowhere near the march lows, but we are getting their rapidly. we will go to houston. stay with us worldwide. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪ ♪ tom: good morning, bloomberg "surveillance." vonnie quinn is here with top headlines. vonnie: the greek stock market is back in business but the reopening after a five-week shutdown was not waiting for. an official said the country's economic output -- outlook does not look right. -- shares

dennis lockhart thinks we should go now unless you start to see the adp number that comes out later todayinitial jobs claims come out tomorrow. only if they significant discipline, they say they will go for a rate rise in september. -- i'm to see on my screen, the dollar over the course of the year, the best performer if you're looking at the bloomberg correlation index. back to you. francine: staying with the fed in india, we spoke to raghuram rajan about a rate hike. it is best if the fed starts normalizing. prepared,everyone is but you can never rule out the possibility. guest is the ubs senior economic adviser, george manus. gettinga voting member ready for september. the market is flipping the coin, 50-50. george: i think it is going to be in september. there is only a possibility -- there is always a possibility of a getting hijacked by a rogue number over the summer. is they will start to do it in september. francine: there is no danger if they's -- if they hike in september. look at china, we do not know what is going on in the market. been chapter has -- there's been chatter abou

what do you think of the numbers, -- is a those are noisy, adp noisy projector, i am hoping for another we -- the economy is continuing to heal. and this has been a resilient recovery and is continuing. vonnie: time to answer our twitter question of the day. how long should parental leave be? got many answers -- one of them inflammatory, some were delightful. first answer -- it is a question of who pays. brendan: that is very fair, i feel strongly on the subject, but as with so many other policies, the smaller the business the bigger the burden -- how do we square that? alan: lots of different ways, also, in thepport, longer run, most benefits come out of wages or they raise productivity and i think family leave has potential to do both. -- it should very on circumstances. the health of the baby, whether it is a single parent or nuclear family -- is that there --fair? alan: i think it should be universal. one of theve this country is high infant mortality . countries that have parental leave have lower infant mortality than we have. brendan: it invites gaming. can you prove that you do

and this morning, clearly, steve, they weren't thrown by the adp number. >> the private sector came inhe number of 185. the september rate hike looks to be baked in with a jobs number above 2 00,000. in line with estimates ain and appeared to meet the criteria of further improvement in the labor market. we did math. here's what we came with. 52% probability of a rate hike. that's above the 40 from yesterday. 12 of 12 economists we read and who we talked to calling now for a september rate hike. two guys wouldn't make the call. we didn't include them in there. here's the data that got them confident in that rate hike. 2. 215 is the number. labor force participation unchanged. let's take a look at where the jobs are. professional and business services up 40,000. and there's retail. it's been above 31 one month in a row. makes me question how weak the consumer can be if retail is hiring the way they have been. l leisure and hospitality up. other areas that gained, including construction, manufacturing. that's another good sign for growth but the bulk of the gains came in the service secto

adp -- on the downside, 3 30,000 short of the consensus. ism services though biggest part of the economy, very strong. claims neutral with a 215,000 job growth month. the trend has been positive so there will be some tolerance around a weak number tomorrow to raise rates. there is another jobs report in early september before that meeting on september 16th and 17th. >> the big conference out in jackson hole. >> yes i will be there. we'll have some newsmakers on our air. >> but miss yellen is not going. >> she will not be going. >> you'd give her a fly fishing lesson. >> i would. if she wants to make a statement in late august she's going to have to call me. >> ron insana joins us now to talk more about the markets and the fed. what do you think this jobs number is going to mean for the fed's deliberations and what do you think they're going to do? >> i wrote a piece yesterday about the struggle that the fed now faces. every time they hint that they're ready to go the indicators that they're watching collapse and undo the very process that t

talking about the 27th l amendment theas last amendment 1992 was the last time that the constitution was adpedmore orn than al200 years after it was proposed as part of the original bill of rights the amendment prohibited members of congress a from receiving anla increase in. salary until after the next election had been held and that was again 1992. before that the 26th amendment, 1971, two last amendments the pn united states tsconstitution.: ahmed is up next, ellicott city, maryland on the independence th line.c good morning.need >> caller: thank you fors taki my call. i don't think that -- i think to the american publicns needs to e understand one thing that changing the constitution is noi a priority for justice, liberty and pursuit of happiness.s fr and theseom politicians and oths are really distracting us from the core issues that divide us because of the injustices and economy and crumbling of our social values and what we stand in the united states and distra throughout the world and how to be respectable nation.nion is these are distractions. this constitution, you know, no document

has his thumb on the pulse of what janet yellen and company will do, but i can tell you in front of adp tomorrow, jobs report on friday the market's a little itchy. there aren't that many big data points between now and the meeting so i would have to say, yes, in the market response it paid attention to mr. lockhart. >> ian, is that because he's seen as sort of a middle voice on the fed? he's not one of the more hawkish members who you'd expect to hear this from. perhaps it does reflect where they want to go? >> well i mean i definitely think it's a change for him, but in general it just doesn't seem likely they're going to raise rates this year at least to me. let's assume they do. i think what you're seeing in the dollar is clearly a negative for all commodities and all the early cyclicals. it used to be the leadership in the marketplace. it's clearly an issue for people who are betting on stock buy backs, dividends and m and a and it's also an issue for i guess fang, which is the acronym of the week for those companies as well because it takes out some of the risk profile for individ

. >> your adp was weak? >> it was weak. >> so where are you on this? are you going on vacation? >> he's already there. job growth has been remarkably stable. some months a little lower. some a little higher. >> you have that shift down. you were 260 last year. now you're running a little bit over two right now. the interesting question is to think about how much you really need to soak up slack in the economy. and it may be as low as 100. so that question, right? becomes what is sufficient for the fed to hike, if you get there. and i think if the fed were honest and not political, the number could be as low as 150. >> what's your number, 215? >> no. >> 214.5? >> our number is 205. we're looking for 205, because we do believe there is -- as the unemployment rate starts to fall, you know, you're going to see the numbers coming in lower and lower. there's less slack in the labor market. but i think the point that steve made was very important, that the fed changed their language. the word "some" was put into their statement. they need to see some improvem