they put it together for adp. metric your metric there was a slowing from 255 to 177. if i use the government report it went up from 90 up to 177. which is it? is the job market slowing? where's the right number here? >> neither. i think the job market is exactly where it's been. i mean, we created 2.5 million jobs last year. we'll create something closer to 2 million this year. and the only reason is that labor markets are tight. they're getting tighter. businesses can't find qualified workers and technology is starting to play a role. if you look at retail employment which had been a big sort of job growth, that's slowing because the online guys are just killing the bricks and mortar guys so we're seeing less job growth there. fundamental job growth is still strong. month to month ups and downs you shouldn't read too much into them. >> you checked your numbers from last month and are sticking with 255. are you saying the bls has that off by almost what 200,000? >> you're going to drag me into the weeds. >> not i

bls you have to get paid, for adp all you have to do is be on payroll. they measure two different things. this month, that's going to iron itself out. do i think the bls number is going to be a lot stronger. job numbers have been pretty good. that's one thing that's kept the economy boyant here. that's important language because that means they're ready to continue to hike rates. cheryl: jack, we are seeing back and forth right now with the dow, we are negative. not a huge market reaction, but again, the numbers were pretty baked in if you're a market participant, june is a different story. but when you look at what we are seeing with u.s. market action, does it maybe make you think about adding cash overseas specially when you've got europe and japan, those banks are like, hey, we are fine at 0 percent, we are going to stay right here, not a problem, what do you think? >> i agree 100%. i would looks overseas for better investment opportunities, in the case of euro you have a weak currency. ecb is running monetary policy, global economy is doing fine. ja

>> did softer adp raise the strikes for frid strikes for friday's job report?adp data doesn't correlate well to what will happen with payrolls and payroll number to me is a very difficult number to predict. certainly to interpret. i think the stakes were always high with payrolls and market cares a lot about payrolls. i tend to think that it's an overanalyzed number given the uncertainty in the variables that actually go into it. >> michael, do you agree? >> i do think it's going to be a highly watched number. we're coming into an fmoc meeting where a lot of data slowed and the fed is likely to characterize that slowdown as transitory and signal that we're going to continue on with normalization. friday is that first number that says is it really transitory or is it not? the fed's bar for what constitutes reasonable is probably 150,000 or greater. i would agree adp is not a strong signal and we're looking for something even a bit stronger. anything 150 or better if we get a solid bounceback and it's 200 or more, then i think it's much more clear sailing for the

adp in line at 177. and our road map begins with apple's iphone sales disappointing.hy the company says future product rumors could be to blame. >>> private sector hiring slows. will signs of a cooling job market change the fed's potential rate hike plans? >>> and a food rally, mondelez and yum brands beat the expectations. mcdonald's gets an upgrade at goldman up. >>> the iphone shares disappoint and tim cook said we are quote we are seeing a delay in purchasing behavior that we think is a consequence of the number of rumors and reports about future products. that is happening outside of greater china. jim, it will be interesting to watch you get him to expand on that. it is going to be the smallest gap up or down for apple on earnings in a couple of years. >> well, look, i think that this is one of those where if we looked at it as a consumer products company, wow, they beat by eight cents, look at this return of capital it's amazing. but you know what, that is not the way that the street views apple. i want to caution people, the street viewing apple versus the way

the adp employment report at 8:15 eastern, followed by services pmi and ism manufacturing.ore the bell, time warner and yum brands and volkswagen. after the close, facebook, tesla, aig and fitbit will report. result also focus on nasdaq and facebook and tesla. >> since there is no yellen at that time -- >> we'll go to the bar and the french debate. >> mike santoli gave the french bar to me. maybe he'll come and join us. >> good morning, mike. >>> mcdonald's getting a premarket pop following an upgrade from goldman sachs. goldman upping the stock to buy from neutral. mcdonald's up 1% this morning at 14 142.8. etsy is down big after announ announcing the ceo will step down. >>> gilead's anti-viral treatments failed to meet analyst expectations. >>> and fireeye enjoying a nice pop after the third quarter beat. the company producing second year guidance that did top expectations. >>> hillary clinton opening up about her election loss for the first time at an event in new york. she gave her take on why she lost the 2016 election. >> do you take any personal responsibility? >> of

adp report at 8:15 a.m. eastern. expectations call for 175,000 private sector jobs added to the economy last month. investors bid on the federal reserve. no change expected this morning from the feds. in europe, markets under pressure. the ft 100 dumbest part of of a percent of sales to cac quarante in paris. in a show overnight, '-close-single-quote is, but the shanghai composite edging lower down a quarter of a percent. two police officers shot in chicago. authorities say they were ambushed. three people held for questioning. the superintendent address the fundamental issues behind the shooting. >> is another example of how dangerous this job is. people take it for granted when police officers come to work every day, they put their lives on the line and we have to do something about it. maria: the latest on the investigation this morning. airlines hope to squeeze more seats on some flights are not meant cutting back on legroom even more. plus, beyoncÉ coming to your coffee table. she's releasing a special edition b

the adp employment report. the fed decision at 2:00 p.m. eastern.hursday, it's q1 productivity and factory orders. friday, guess what, it's about time again, the april jobs report. and the pace of earning up a little bit this week. the s&p 500 reporting, the two big names to watch, conocophillips, merck, apple, facebook, tesla, kellogg and cvc. >>> fred chairman ben bernanke joins "squawk box" for an hour an exclusive here from 8:00 to 9:00 eastern today. s his thoughts on the president and the economy. and the future. that's on "squawk box," 8:00 a.m. >>> still to come here on "worldwide exchange," of the second round of the french election less than a week away. we'll tell you what global investors need to be watching within that. you're watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc. thanks for loading, sweetie. ...oh, burnt-on gravy? ...gotta rinse that. nope. no way. nada. really? dish issues? throw it all in. new cascade platinum powers through... even burnt-on gravy. nice. cascade. if you want to stay on top of your health, one simple thing to do

the cfo of adp joins us with some new data that may shock you.of "squawk box" begins right now. >>> live from the beating heart of business, new york city. this is "squawk box." >>> good morning. welcome back to skwk skwk right here on cnbc, we're live at the nasdaq marketsite in times square i'm andrew ross sorkin along with becky quick and joe kernen. we're all hanging out together. i think that was the first time in awhile. >> it's permanent now. >> take a look at the futures right now. dow looks like it would open off about 35 1/2 points. nasdaq down as well close to nine points off the s&p 500 looking to open down by five points. some of the big headlines of the morning. we're now about 90 minutes away from two key economic reports. the consumer price index. also retail sales for april that comes out at 8:30 eastern time. retail sales rose 0.5% last month with consumer price index up 0.2%. >>> anthem has lost a court battle to keep cigna from terminating their merger deal. a delaware judge requiring them not to end the transaction. anthem ha

we will get adp employment data, the consensus for 185,000 jobs added last month. after the bell, it is earnings watch. facebook and tesla will be reporting. alix: decision day for the federal reserve, the bloomberg surprise index starting to roll over. sales, week core cpi, week march job numbers. mckee.shington, michael how does the fed a dress the weaker data we have seen? michael: they are going to have to mention the fact that the economy slowed in the first quarter but they do not want to take june off the table and do not believe this will be a continuing problem so they will probably talk about it being transitory. they may mention seasonality problems we had. tractornta fed, gdp now comes up close to the average gdp numbers we get, shows first quarter's have been terrible for the last couple of years, but look at that line far to the right. that is the first estimate they have for the second-quarter growth. the atlanta fed sees it coming back and that is what they will hang their hat on, the forecast for what will happen, not what has happened. alix: is th

to leave interest rates unchanged but investors will be watching for any hints that the fed plans to adph pay roll numbers this morning ahead of the labor department's report on friday. services sectorsute this morning today. stocks closer slightly higher on tuesday. the nasdaq up three points to 6095. apple shares did tumble on disappointing revenues and weaker than expected iphone sales. the world's most valuable listed company said it sold 50.76 million iphones in the second fiscal quarter. it sounds like a lot but it's down from the same period last year. tim cook blaming leaks and rumors about the next generation of iphones for the slowdown in purchases of the current models. and etsy says it's ousting its ceo and laying off 80 employees or about 8% of its cost to cut costs. this as the company reported disappointing first quarter revenue numbers. the former head of skype, josh silverman, will replace chad dickerson as ceo. shares plunging on the surprising ceo change news. back over to you. >> a stock to track today. thank you. >>> 4:40 right now. if you're sick and tired of traffi

adp says companies created 177,000 new positions, a steady pace, but a sharp deceleration from the prior month. it was also the smallest increase since october. some of the highlights included increase of 11,000 in manufacturing jobs. business services added 72,000, the most in three years. small and medium sized firms increased hiring while construction employment fell. >>> and growth in the services sector accelerated in april, thanks to an increase in production and new orders. that's good news for the overall economy, since the services sector accounts for about 80% of the economy. according to the institute for supply management, this is the 88th straight month of growth. >>> that economic data and the fed standing pat were barely able to move the needle on stocks today. the dow rose 8 points to 20,957. nasdaq inched back from record territory, giving up 22. and the s&p 500 was off 3. >>> despite not moving all that much today, the stock market is holding at all-time highs. but volatility is low. so does this calmness on wall street pose a danger to investors? doug butler from rockl

adp compiles labor market data based on the 24 million u.s. employees whose employers contract with adp their payrolls. loser: real estate's new normal: homeowners staying put . . . what appears to be a new normal in the real estate business: homeowners are moving less, creating a drag on the economy, fewer commissions for real estate brokers and a brutally competitive market for first- time home shoppers who cannot find much for sale and are likely to be disappointed during real estate's spring selling season. winner: lyft, waymo strike self-driving car deal as uber rivalry intensifies . . . the company that began as google's driverless car project has reached a deal to collaborate with ride-hailing app lyft on tests of self-driving vehicles. the deal intensifies the bitter rivalry between waymo, a division of google parent alphabet, and ride-hailing market leader uber. it also gives lyft a powerful new ally in the self-driving car race against its more well-funded adversary uber. and it places waymo a step closer to becoming a business with real-world customers. any advice or insight

he said adp is more exciting, but central banking is more complex and more difficult.ough job, but he is sure he will make it. betty: certainly a tough job for him. the boj is in a bind. let us look at the rebounding u.s. payrolls. his june done? kathleen: if you ask the markets, it is, the fed says the same. they were up to 11,000. then it was only 79,000. it did not look quite impressive, but 79,000 is more of an outlier. 4.4%, a 10t down to year low, not since before the great financial crisis have we seen it. president in san francisco said over the weekend he sees three or four hikes coming. let's jump into the bloomberg and look at interest rate projections. you will see how those odds have moved up to just what the fed wants to see, 100% on of the fed moving in june. that is when the futures market is suggesting. it is interesting that wages are kind of stuck at 2.4%, which you cannot see on this chart, but at 2.7%, there is no acceleration. that seems to be looking past this, but donald trump and his team are not. here is what gary coleman said on friday and wh

. >> and payroll processing company adp saying private sector added 177,000 jobs in april.hat's a low level in six months. and now, all eyes are going to be on the government jobs report which comes out friday morning. >> and the federal reserve deciding to leave interest rates unchanged wednesday and the fed also says it expects economy to remain resilient leaving the door on for more hikes this year. and an eye opening report from real estate web site trulia. only a third of homes are worth as much as they were before the recession in 2008 and truly estimate a true national economic recovery in home prices may not happen until the year 20 256r789. >> and that's business i'm david asmond. for years, fios has been promising fast internet to small businesses. but for many businesses, it's out of reach. why promise something you can't deliver? comcast business is different. ♪ ♪ ♪ we deliver super-fast internet with speeds of 250 megabits per second across our entire network, we do business where you do business. ♪ ♪ ♪ in the middle of a storm destiny struck.

whether it's the adp tomorrow or the unemployment number. unemployment number is really going to affect what the fed is going to do. the fed is going to raise rates in june, then they'll do the tapering in september. then they're going to take passes as to who the next fed chair will be. i'm not sure we'll go to 2%. i don't think we'll go back up to 2.40 any time soon. >> you know, today in "the wall street journal" andy, there was an article by a named tom furless. it seems a law professor in germany thinks he has standing to challenge mario draghi buying bonds for germany. do you think this will get any legs with the german constitutional court? it's a novel idea and on one hand. "b," i want to know what you think about it in principle in general. >> well, as far as i'm not a lawyer, thank goodness for that. but what i think you won't have standing by the time that anything gets determined. the ecb will be tapering. it will be a different role. to answer your second question no question in my mind that the germans are frustrated with the l

it often moves the market and then we get the adp employment numbers, which is the precursor to friday'sket. but with major economic data, why is the vix all over the place? earlier it spiked more than 8% and now up 4%. it dropped down. we have to get to the floor show. john, why the nervousness and yet the market doesn't seem to be moving that much? >> right. so it seems like we picked up today where we left off on friday. friday was the second slowest day of the year. low volume today. not a lot of activity. i think the fear that's in our market right now was just additional headlines coming out of washington. there's so much there, both headlines, domestic headlines and international headlines. investors really do have a fear of what is this next headline going to be, how is it going to move the markets? liz: well, if this is fear, i don't think it looks that bad. and i only say that, todd because you may as well call this flat all right? the trump rally and the trump trade is still on. we are near or at record highs. i think the nasdaq 100 hit a record high. so john's right. people a

michael: thursday's a big day -- jobless claims, adp employment, the latest monthly trade nubbers, joblesshe isn -- trade numbers, jobless claims, and the isn numbers. you will want to be watching bloomberg thursday morning. scarlet: shameless plug. michael mckee will be back with us thursday and friday to break down those nubbers. let's check the headlines with bloomberg's first word news with ramy inocencio. : alan passengers from europe will be able to bring down laptops into the train cabin. the trump administration has opted not to expand the ban. "politicocording to ." the u.s. currently bans laptops from eight majority muslim nations. the decision was made this afternoon on a conference call that included homeland security chief john kerry and the european home affairs commissioner. staying in europe, german authorities have detained a 17-year-old syrian mail for planning a possible suicide attack on berlin. wasce said the teenager detained after they learned he had sent a message to family members saying farewell, and jihad." had joined the also, russian foreign minister sergey lav

at dp says private firms added 177,000 jobs its weakest total in six months according to adp the labor reports on friday expectations for 190,000 jobs. as apple stock goes, so does the stock market. the market is down. let's check it. apple shares down about 2 perks the dow dropping about 30 points. nasdaq down by 21. s&p is down by 4. michelle and kenny, back to you. >> thank you, jason brooks from kcbs radio. >>> a bay area bus company is pushing towards driverless city buses. they will be beginning testing it in month in reno. it will be among the first in the country to introduce driverless technology into a metro transit system. but the bus driver will stay behind the wheel. >>> there were hot spots earlier. are we still seeing traffic troubles? >> yes. we still have plenty of slowdowns and those accidents still blocking lanes. this is along westbound 237 here at zanger road so the south bay commute slow out of milpitas. this is blocking two left lanes near zanker and in the backup we had a motorcycle crash and car and so emergency crews also blocking one lane in that eastbound di

microsoft, apple, brand names along with shell and adp. they said it would reduce business risk, make companies more competitive and create jobs, said the administration. donald trump has been very protective of coal miner jobs. they have decreased dramatically in the last several years largely because utility companies are just using less coal. they're using less coal because we have more natural gas and natural gas burns cleaner than coal. and the cost of renewables have come down so coal miners haven't been affected much, they're really affected by forces. pulling out of the paris agreement isn't going to change that. >> last thing, charlie, let's talk about donald trump's tweet overnight. i'm not even going to try to pronounce the word that appeared on his twitter because i don't think i could. people mocked him on twitter for leaving this tweet up for so many hours. that's not the point i want to make. talk to me about the security concerns, the implications of what it means that donald trump has a way to communicate with america and

you have another adp on lockup. okay? hope we don't keep going through this. okay?. we also found that you place other calls for other inmates while they're in lockup. >> no. >> you have placed 17 calls from the unit under your name through other inmates, through their families. you place three-ways to your families to. these inmates are in lockup. they don't have privileges to make any phone calls or have you relay any messages for these inmates. placing you in violation of phone restrictions on the jail. you want to tell me why you're doing that -- >> what does that mean? you don't have to keep going through this, man. >> that's what i'm trying to tell you. you're looking at lockup time. >> okay. wow. okay. >> are you admitting to doing this? >> yeah. >> i'm letting you know here's the situation you're coming into right now. >> okay. >> a recommendation was already made by sergeant daniels to place you on phone restrictions, okay? >> okay. >> any questions? >> no. >> okay. >> please don't come back and waste my time no more. i don't give a [ bleep ] what you do. >

betty: we did not get a lot of clues about the job market from them adp report.came in in line with estimates. will the jobs report be important this time around? it seems to be less and less important overtime. the earnings season showed corporate earnings are on the right track. i think we have a tail wind it d less important overtime. from the corporate earnings environment, excluding the apple store yesterday. is keyedk the market in to the wage number. we talked about the diversions between the fed expectations for a few more hikes, the market expectations for 1.5 at best this year. that could close that gap. you see earnings accelerating a little faster. the market wants to see wage and that would probably close the gap between market expectations in the fed. betty: looking at those valuations, how much of a pricing in a policy risk as well? is there any in here? we are do not think pricing in a lot of policy risk. if anything, we are pricing in better policy, corporate tax reduction, we have eliminated a lot of that optimism. but there might still be optim

and adp suggests 170,000 jobs, that would be good compared to last month.s check on the big board, the dow 30, a smattering of green, performing stocks at the top. most are down and the key stock today in the market will be apple. iphone sales there were not up to snuff. less than 51 million and wall street was looking closer to 53 million and consequently you could see the shares are down 1 1/2%. and remember, facebook, they're going to report tonight after the close, that stock near all-time highs and trading higher. weight watchers, the confidence to raise the forecast, oprah winfrey doing pretty good there. we did see weak forecast from trilio, two major customers and uber, uber cutting back big time on services. joining me pliz macdonald, shah gilani and we'll have to start with apple. what are they going to do with the huge cash pile? >> they're going to keep it there until they get a deal to bring it over, repatriation and put it to work back here. charles: the dream is that they bring it here and build factories and create jobs, instead of continuin

george: anything near consensus, it is accommodation of adp -- labor stats have been relatively robust fed have a lot speakers that characterize what their interpretation is after the numbers. messaging is out there, the data has been ok. anywhere between 160 to 200. -- 200 is fair game. the weakness in the q1 is spilling over further. that takes away possibilities of the fed hiking in june. yvonne: not everyone is convinced this is transitory, right? we seebout breakevens, renewed pressure. now the commodities story is racing down as well. i want to pull up a chart and show what we seeing, not just with energy, but industrials. precious metals have been rolling up. how do you square this type of weakness and commodities with your view that rates could still go higher? ultimately, there can be moments where we have soft patches. it could be region-specific. some of the weakness is starting to show up in china data and that is what is driving the commodity story, not a global phenomenon. itthis were to persist, causes us to question the european recovery. and is the u.s. about to take a

the adp jobs report at 177 is more than most think is needed to cut the unemployment rate and the ism suggested good growth in that critical sector early q-2 data not necessarily the auto data is saying the fed is correct to look through the weakness and stay on track for a june hike. >> got it, steve. thank you so much. the markets are lower across the board as we countdown to the big fed decision. this is noted investor who expects the summer interest rise will go along with a correction in the stock market. rebecca patterson is a cnbc contributor, managing director and christina hooper with invesco. good to have you here. rebecca, was steve right in what he was saying in terms of the fed looking past the soft data and focused on a june rate hike? >> i rarely disagree with steve. the market as of this morning is pricing in about a 71% chance that we get a june rate hike and barring some major shock, a le pen victory from france this weekend or something that rattled the markets in a big enough way that they might pause, i think we are likely to get a hike. >> chris tea he intinchris

added 177,000 jobs in april . . .the private sector added 177,000 jobs in april, payroll processor adps closely watched employment report this week will reveal at least a moderate rebound in hiring.many economists believe the labor market was poised to bounce back last month. loser: apple iphone sales slip on next-iphone hype. . . apple shipped fewer iphones than wall street expected in the first three months of the year, a surprise drop that dented its stock price. shares fell 2% after hours. the stock (aapl) is up 27% this year. what happened to iphone sales? apple ceo tim cook attributed the dip to media hype on the next model. it' was "due to the earlier and much more frequent reports about future iphones," cook said in a call with analysts. loser: prices for most u.s. homes remain below precrash peaks . .. what housing recovery? only about one-third of u.s. homes have topped their prerecession price peaks, undermining other measures that have shown average national housing prices zooming past those high-water marks.make no mistake - the housing market has clawed its way out of the

obviously, it was in line, maybe even better than people had thought after the adp number.markets are on board with that because they are already pricing it in. i don't see this as a market moving event. positive onocks are the s&p. feels like good news. gina: hard to imagine a much better report for stocks. back over the last five years when the employment number beat expectations, stocks are up 70% of the time, they are up half a percentage point on the day. you can expect generally good news is good news for stocks. when financials are 15% of the index, even good news that stimulates a fed increase is also good news for stocks. jonathan: your point on the financials, dependent on what's happening with the treasury curve. there is not really validating the financial bull calls. how do you reconcile those two things? gina: you have to have enough growth that you justify the fed continuously increasing rates and the long end of the curve going higher, too. so far the long and has remained anchored, and that is tough for thatcials, except for period just after the election.

steve: very little, the other problem with this budget, projecting 3% adp growth, which is absurd. assuming no recession for steve: 208 quarters. daniel: -- not krishna: if trends continue, they could be the largest business cycle -- jonathan: we could go another 10 years. krishna: 10 years is a long time, but i think it could continue for another 2, 3 years. is continuing for two or three years, what is the treasury market town you -- we had not short -- net short positions in futures, then net long. a violent step back. how do you score that? krishna: but the treasury market is betting on is the fact that u.s. economy is slowing, or at least it is very worried about that. i think if the fed plays around with the balance sheet and in turn makes a mistake, overplays its hand, then the u.s. economy is going to slow down. i think the market expects that if the fed on winds its balance sheet faster, rates are going to go up. i would contend that slows down the u.s. economy and race will rally rather than go up. david: it seems to be a consensus about what will happen and what will not

be a market mover, a lot of economic data this week, most notably the job's number out on friday and adp as the german dax index. in asia overnight, stocks were mixed, take a look. nikkei average down, shanghai composite up, fractional movers, can you spell liar, google out with a list of the top words each state needs help spelling including one where the word is the state itself. [laughter] maria: we have that one coming up this morning. joining me to talk about it fox business dagen mcdowell, recon capital chief investment officer kevin kelly and fox news contributor guy benson is here, great show so far, guys. >> it's been far. that map cracked me up. wisconsin, what's going on in wisconsin? my home state is new jersey, the most misspelled -- googled search term is twelve. maria: a lot of people had problems spelling pneumonia. kevin: i had a problem with the covfefe. dagen: that's a good dog name. maria: maybe will turn out to be something. joining the conversation fox news senior judicial analyst andrew napolitano, former ceo of ck restaurants, andy puzder and kt is here to talk ab

manufacturing and construction spending, tomorrow, april auto sales, paychex small business jobs and wednesday, adp, service index and fed decision at 2:00 p.m. eastern time. thursday, q1 productivity and factory orders, friday, april jobs reports. as for earning, more than 100 companies in the s&p 500 reporting. the big names to watch, include conocophillips, merck, apple, facebook, tesla, kellogg and cbs. >> more than the holdings of united states and canada. >> yep, you could buy netflix and tesla. >> 90% of that is still overseas. brings us back to the question we keep talking about again and again which is tax reform will it will be something that allows repatriation in a temporary or ten days. how important is that, bob? >> it's huge. i think, maybe if we get tax reform, repatriation is 100% likely. >> do you believe that apple is sitting with all of that cash overseas, not bringing it back, not buying anything because of it? >> not necessarily. look. apple is very stingy with their money. we know that. i don't know they bring the money home and all of a sudden, there's some major acquisition

i think we get adp on wednesday. on thursday i mean. >> you have a number, seth?it's too early in the week. >> oh, too early in the week. all right. >> too much rain. anyway, all right. >> you never know. >> when we come back, a bear call on grand tech companies like snap, facebook and google. we're going to talk to bill smead about the names he's betting on and which names he's avoiding, too. >>> as we get to a quick break a quick programming note don't miss lee cooperman live on the halftime report today. his first interview since settling with the s.e.c. that's at noon eastern time. "squawk box" will be right back. there's nothing traditional about my small business so when it comes to technology, i need someone that understands my unique needs. my dell small business advisor has gotten to know our business so well that is feels like he's a part of our team. with one phone call, he sets me up with tailored products and services. and when my advisor is focused on my tech, i can focus on my small business. ♪ ♪ rumor confirmed. they're playing. -what? -we gotta go