>> a really solid adp print. it is so important to interpret the number in context to what we have seen over the last couple of years to what the fed were actually expecting. a lot of them have been expecting a convergence down to roll placement rate. it is something around the --dred thousand level hundred thousand level. we are now seeing a north of 200,000 level. extremely robust gains relative to what they are expecting. that is making them scratch their heads and say what is going on here. joe: could it be that economists have no idea where full employment this? jeanna: i think that is absolutely the case. we are basically hearing them say that. jerome powell has said they are assessment of full employment -- their assessment of full is highly uncertai n and you shouldn't use it as a guide. the fed president said who knows where full employment is and where this number is. it would be great if we could sustain a 3.5% unemployment without higher inflation. they still think the base case is that there is a ris

adp, the biggest jump in eight months despite those back-to-back hurricanes and 227

again, just at the top we got september jobs report for adp.vising the numbers for august higher as well. up 5,000 to 168,000. joining us now is mark zandi with moody's mark, these are stronger than expected numbers what does this tell us about what we're seeing happening in the economy? >> economy is good lots of jobs this overstates the case a little bit doesn't account for florence >> i'm sorry, what >> florence, the hurricane it won't pick that up. adp all you have to be is on the payroll to get -- >> you don't have to get a paycheck does that mean the september payrolls number may be a higher number or trend than what we've seen on the jobs report? >> i think florence will probably shave 25 k. we're still at 200k so it's still a big number >> so anybody anticipating this who looks at adp will look for the trend to be right. but this week in itself, it may not be quite as tight. >> just for context. where are the biggest areas of strength >> everywhere. >> geographically and -- >> pretty much there are two sectors not adding one is retail.

adp is 230,000 if we get a great number on friday or just another solid plus 200,000, let's say, not a great -- not a 250 but a solid number right around 200,000 on friday, the market's going to say, see, there's folks that are getting better jobs. >> we'll see what happens with the ten year if you start talking 3.20 and 3.25. >> it's a welcome handoff. you're handing off into an environment where here comes quarterly earnings first of all, the financial expectations for earnings are incredibly low that is a bar that is -- we understand capital market. volatility has been low. loan growth is decelerating. this is really low expectations for financials there's an opportunity for the market to really meet and beat those expectations again, that's a welcome condition. and you're handing off a market to what the real strength of this economy and the market has been all year which has been earnings >> i think tying this all together -- i actually don't think value will outperform. growth will continue to outperform the reason for that in order to value to outperform you need one of two co

adp with payrolls up around 230, 240. the market has a problem you're going to see a quick run in rates up to 335 and then the stock market is going down so this is an adjustment to josh's point investors are a choice now, which is a good thing. i think the bond market needs to calm down the best way to do that is give them numbers which are more on expectations and they don't surprise them. >> josh brown, i want to ask you a question, i hear people now saying that maybe one of better things that comes out of higher rates, is that value investing comes back into favor. and when you think about growth investing being predominately driven by how much cash can be raised by zero costs and how many money can be thrown at all kinds of outlandish projects, throwing spaghetti at the wall if capital becomes more scarce or more expensive in the next couple of years. wouldn't this auger well for established companies and existing industries that have seen their multiple compressed by excess competition, to now all of a sudden reasse

the precursor, adp number with a nice meaty number, gain of 230,000 jobs. moves in construction, professional business services, how does the economy look to you? >> that is the point. the economy is great. public sees record levels of consumer confidence. lots of sectors are working. while a few names still dominate the market. you have to be careful about valuation. this is broad-based market with lots of ideas. my point invest in ones not only doing good, doing well, doing it with integrity. liz: integrity is the word. we'll see if you measure that. sometimes people hide that stuff. jordan, great to see you. >> thank you. liz: on a day with 10-year yields at seven-year highs it is a record for the dow jones industrials. [closing bell rings] we hit the confetti. nasdaq eked out a gain of 26 points or a third of a percent. have a freight day. melissa: 103 and counting, and we're still winning, not nearly tired of it. the dow ending up at new record close. 103rd since the election of president trump. david: wow. melissa: subpoena 500 and nasdaq withins as w

also we got the private survey from the adp.looked pretty solid in line with the forecasted surveys. the government seems to be dialing back this pressure that is put on the r.b.i. to help banks a little bit. is a bigne, there discussion about central bank independence. that will continue to be in focus for any central-bank watcher at this time because we know there has been fed bashing by trump in the u.s.. this is an age old thing that happens between governments and central banks. thank you for joining us. general motors is showing that the old-school business of carmaking can still be lucrative despite slowing global sales. they surprised investors. we have the details. this was unexpected. >> it was. analysts were expecting a loss for this quarter you're on your. we sought the shares rally more than 9%. that was also at its two-month high. you are taking a look at the numbers here. we went over the earnings us i will go over that revenue. the estimate was for something less than that. not only that, looking into the future,

that just makes today's adp number all that more impressive. it's an indicator what we can expect. charles: a big question a lot of our viewers have. if everything is so great, when do they start to see it in those paychecks? >> that's the mill dollar question. it's coming. i don't think it will come in a flood. it will be incremental gains. there are plenty of jobs going wanting for people to fill them. it's a matter of the jobs that needed to be filled and people not having the education or technical skills to fill them. that will keep wages a little bit subdued. f that means we'll have some inflation, but not enough to worry the economy. >> i think right now -- charles: you think 3% year overyear hike we could see that? >> i don't know about friday, but you will see it in the next couple. charles: it should have happened a long time ago. considering the job openings and dynamics. >> amazon is raising the minimum wage to $15. target is at $13. enough to move the economy. charles: the market, the economy, those big rigs. did you see the september number? the last quarter. the best

october adp he economists expecting 189,000 private sector jobs add to the economy last month markett is coming out, any second now, because it is -- >> 227 the number 227,000 much better than expected on jobs from adp just hitting the wire, the estimate was 189 getting a number 227,000 jobs, add to economy for the month kevin kelley thoughts on that obviously better-than-expected we are getting the labor department number out on friday. >> yeah we've seen actually typically you see the adp number lead, for the because private payrolls for the friday jobs number from bureau of labor stats this is exceptionally strong when you have seen, though that adp can be about, who to 60,000 jobs higher so this is indicating in that range of what economists are expecting, on friday's jobs number this is this is about unbelievable getting into a seasonal time, though where we have holiday picking up we also will see, jobs come back, into the labor force do you to the hurricanes waerpg off you are going to see you should be seeing a bump like this, this is overall good number, reinforces the narra

cheryl: the bigger question certainly what we will see in job's report, adp coming much stronger thanected, jobless claims coming in pretty strong. we saw wages grow 2.9% year over year for august. you see jump in wages, that's where we do see a big of a jump, and then you see maybe growth in factory jobs, maybe the unemployment rate tick down another fraction of a percent that to me say that is the market is going to selloff again today. >> i think the market is really wound up right now and with the selloff on wednesday. if you saw a really strong earnings number today i think you could see yield rise again which i think would weigh on stocks again, you could see a really volatile reaction. on the flip side if you see a weaker earnings numbers, a lot of attention paid to the positions and you can see yields snap lower quickly. we are wound up right now, the market, we could see volatility, the biggest would be hourly earnings number. cheryl: i think factory numbers will be interesting good as well. some of the pressure that we have seen isn't necessarily trade-related stocks, you ha

jammed from 880 to adp. take wb 84 instead.en found at the home of former president bill and hillary clinton in new york. and one was intercepted on the way to the home of president obama. this is video over the home of (james) ( james )breaking news... a bomb has been found at the home of former president bill anhillary clinton in new york.and one was intercepted on the way to the home of president obama. this is video over the home of george soros yesterday where a pipe bomb was found. (james)( darya ) welcome back. let's get a back. welcome back. let's get a ( james )breaking news... a bomb has been found at the home of former president bill and hillary clinton in new york.and one was intercepted on the way to the home of president obama. this is video over the home of george soros yesterday where a pipe bomb was found. seven day seven day found. bomb was where a pipe bomb was found. seven day (darya)that's it for us this morning... our next newscast is at 5 o clock tonight. you could save energy by living off the grid. comp

after the close, express scripts and fitbit at 8:15, we have the adp employment numbers at 9:45, thee markets called a bit higher. the dow up 103 points. the nasdaq up just shy of 1% with facebook helping to pull that higher. joining me now from new york is tim seymour of seymour asset management good to see you. >> great to be here. >> this will be the first day in october f we fini october, if we finish where the futures suggest, where we had two days of gains. was that expected coming into the end of the month that we were due a bounce as we round out the month? is that the only reason why we're seeing it? >> you may have put the reverse whammy on markets today. be careful there's no question we were in oversold conditions. there's no question if you had not gotten some of those china tariff headline rumors two days ago we might be stringing together four days it's not a huge surprise to see markets have a bit of relief there's some relief last night with facebook. apple is a big one we have the dynamic here where people are starting to really assess the impact of earnings season

founder and cio at adp invest. we are down in premarket trading after the $33 billion purchase -- you often see this after a company spends so much money, shareholders react by selling the shares. some european stocks that might move today are in relation to this, micro-focused sap software and on the target side because redge jump hat got a 63% premium on friday's closing price. hsbcxt, we will talk about , bringing you the stocks on the move including the london stock that rose 4% after encouraging results from the hong kong shanghai banking corporation. we will discuss it further. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ good morning, bloomberg markets : european open. france still not open this morning, euronext putting out a statement saying is due to a technical issue. the open for equity derivatives and indices is delayed. we will keep an eye on that. let's get the top stock stories. >> good morning. piggybacking off that great session it saw in asia, shares up on one of the biggest intraday gains since 2017. the big thing to

meantime, we did get the adp report out, saying companies added 227,000 jobs in october.ates. s&p futures around the highs of the session. so much bad news big ten and after a terrible october. will the job market providing upside surprise? this is the first indicated for that scenario. reaches a dealy which could lead to a sale. this is bloomberg. ♪ david: time now for the bottom line where we look at three cup is worth watching. clorox came in with their earnings and they are down. down over 5% now. they beat earnings-per-share but they have some cost, margin pressures, fx pressures, and they will not be buying as many of their shares. alix: i wonder how much passed through they have. gold corp., interesting commentary after their earnings. this is what he had to say about the crisis for gold miners. caution to a certain degree has to be thrown to the wind. right now as an industry we are facing an existential crisis because reserves are declining rapidly. if we are not replacing the assets, we will stop existing. comments from the ceo of a gold company. i covered gold

that is the adp number coming in at 230. excuse me, the forecast was 184. , the u.s.e blue line government data, right around 201 in august. we are looking at september this friday. people are always so focused on the report because in a rough way they track -- if you got a large and unexpected jump, does that mean the friday number is going to be stronger as well? the u.s. maine services gate, the isn nonmanufacturing index came in at 50 16. growthg above 50 singles -- signals growth. it was interesting to see because the selloff started with the adp report. it got worth with -- worse with the services report. here we have the benchmark for the u.s. government and you can around 3.8 1%, the highest since july of 2011. third-year bonds closed at 3.34%. this was a selloff. in addition, friday is expected to show unemployment falling to 3.8%. that will be the lowest since 1959. wages we have watched as well. >> we have had a lot of fed speak it -- speakers this week. what was the message today? >> day two of a speech from jay

weather job losses are more likely to show up in the bls report than adp, carl. >> that's a big storyeve liesman. meanwhile there's an op-ed in "the new york times," the economy is great, really, for now. he joins us today to talk more about that, rashir, thanks for being here. >> great to be back. >> people pay attention to mike wilson's view of the market morphing in potentially a bear market it doesn't sound like you're any more constructive on the macro either. >> i feel like the issue is this basically. the only economy in the world which is doing well currently is the united states. every single other major economy in the world has been slowing down i just feel that the u.s. economy is so stretched just now that it is likely to catch down with the rest of the world rather than the other way around, which is the rest of the world catches up to the strength of the united states that's partly because many of the indicators in the united states in terms of the consumer confidence, the manufacturing surveys, the small business indices, these are at multi-decade highs you know, it's v

economic data, adp on the jobs side, services report from ism all of that was very positive. by today being better than yesterday, look what happened with the 10-year treasury note went to highest point in seven years. you would have thought maybe that cuts into stocks. it did, right? the dow was up 178. only closing up 50 some points but it did close higher, so did the broader market but that is what we've seen down on the floor as a positive, able to with stand higher rates and still move to the upside with strong economic data being a driving force. financials will do well when you get higher interest rates and in that type environment. we saw many of the financials, on the list, jpm, morgan stanley, wells fargo, all in the green. up more percentagewise than the market. was kind of interesting to see when the market came well off the highs. up 100 plus points than on the dow. some of the utilities. this makes sense, gave up gains and we saw weakness in those areas. there are three examples on the screen. these are all high dividend-paying stocks generally speaking. so the

david, let me start with you, the adp number, we get that on friday. think it's a fine report, in many ways even better than the government data. 227,000 jobs. the street was looking for 189. pretty good news. >> yeah. it's a good number. we'll have another good number on friday. what we've been doing for quite some time rolling averages of three months at a time to sort of take out various month by month lumpiness. i don't know that anybody disagrees with your conclusion the job data is very good. there are low amount of unemployed people and the people employed are making more money. charles: robert if no good jobs number, anytime wages go up it is a good thing. if we look over past 20 months, under president trump average job gains were 188,000. under president obama, it was 211. we had 40 straight months of 200,000. not surprising by these numbers. anytime gm is doing well. anytime industrial america comes back we should be applauding. charles: that is the point i point to, mining jobs, construction jobs, manufacturing jobs, 38,000 of them accordin

stocks surging on the heels of this morning's better adp report the dow hitting a new all-time high,a fifth straight day. job growth rose in september to its highest level in seven months private sector adding 230,000 jobs in september that was well above forecast comes ahead of friday's job report for september not necessarily a good indicator, that adp, but that builds further momentum to this case that our economy, in the words of larry kudlow, is killing it right now what will it mean for third-quarter earnings that is a big debate on wall street because we are about to head into q3 the earnings growth is an expectation of 21.6% that continues the streak of double digit growth. the question is how much that's already in the market because we are coming off of the third quarter where the s&p rose about 7%. >> powell calling this an extraordinary time for the economy. low inflation, low unemployment and richmond fed out with a series of tweets about the five indicators they're looking for in terms of worry lists, yield curve, nothing is flashing right now. >> flashing recession sig

tomorrow we get adp private payroll report. thursday the weekly jobless claims, and friday the gove ment's monthly employmen numbers will be released. but today the job story was about amazon, the company which is one of the country's private employers raising minimum wage for workers to $15 an hour. m that'se than double the federal minimum wage and it includes all of its full-time, part time, temporary and seasonal eloyees in the u.s. it's a change that could have a wide-reaching economi impact, especially when you consider amazon has added more americanb n the past decade than any company and yet to bennounced second headquarters is expected to employ an additional0,000 people. as courtney reagan reports the amundsonen wage increase could inspirether companies to follow. >> a big move for a big company just in time for the holidays. >> a $15 an hour. >> amazo is increasing its minimum wage in the u.s. to $15 an hour. from an average $11 an hour currently. 250,000 part time, full-time and seasonal workers will benefit from hi

i am optimistic. >> do you think people are responding to good backdrop on economy we just got the adptember, 230,000 jobs were created in private sector, added to the the economy versus estimate of 185,000 newsbreaking a few minutes ago we have labor department number out on friday, but you've got that you've got behavior on left around the kavanaugh hearing, did that change the -- the backdrop for the republicans or is it just a better back drob in terms of of the economy what is driving this? >> i think the kavanaugh hearings have energized our base, highlighted the obstructive nature of democrats only want to come to washington to stop this president resist obstruct delay divide i dysfunction republicans delivering, kick-started economy jobs coming back wages up people are feeling better their lives are [either are so it is a really clear choice, do you want results from republicans, or resistance from democrats? and i think voters, are going to pick results every time. >> we got new quinnipiac university poll out finds gop cutting drove democratic lead there was lot of talk before

and new clues about the job market ahead of friday's employment report, the latest adp data showing private payrolls surging in september, but the highest level in seven months and senator bernie sanders unveiling a new bill to break up the big banks, under his plan, any bank whose exposure is more than 3% of gdp would be in the crosshairs bank stocks unfazed, though, by that latest call melissa? >> courtney, more record highs for stocks today bob pisani is at the new york stock exchange with more bob, they're starting to hand out those 27,000 hats? >> we're just about there. so two parts of this story number one, strong u.s. economy helping again, and number two, an unwind of those trade war fears. there was a number of trades around that, getting unwound in the last couple of weeks, including today. let me show you a full screen of the main things that are happening to the stock market and why we're up number one, we've had strong economic data in the form of adp and particularly ty sm services report, 10:00 a.m., helped ignite the market here number two, yields have been moving up. that'

at 8:30 a.m., the initial jobless claims report that came after the adp numbers.ddresses the st. louis fed on the subject of community banks. the most significant known supply chain attack ever against u.s. companies. chipse hackers implanted in its servers that implicated 30 u.s. companies including amazon and apple. a bloomberg businessweek investigation did extensive interviews. amazon and apple dispute the reporting, so has supermicro, the company that assembled the servers. businessweek hits the stands tomorrow. jordan robertson, the author of the story. for those of us who have not had a chance to read the entire piece, bring us up to speed. oforter: the high points that these are in 2014 and 2015, u.s. authorities and major discoveredmpanies discovered hardware manipulation involving a major assembler of server circuit boards. think about this as a permanent infection on a motherboard. we know what malicious software is and malware is, imagine if you embed that in a chip and then you embed it on a motherboard. up,y time the server boots the malware a shot i

adp report was off the charts. so the jobs market is soaring. amazon prices are up a little bit given they raised the minimum wage to $15 an hour. all eyes on consumer spending because it accounts for 2/3 of our economy. you're right, the market is on a tear because of this trade deal. this is a great thing for our economy. the u.s. will become once again a manufacturing powerhouse because of usmca -- uscma. this is great neil. still getting letters write. neil: there are a lot of letters. brian wesbury is with us. brian, someone that crunch as lot of numbers from different industries and fields, states, localities, one thing that struck me from the private data from the adp folks how robust it is bosses are oak kay to pass along pay increases and incentivize people to come to that. that is something we're not seeing in quite a while. the gains there, there is the flip side the federal reserve could look at that say we don't really like the inflationary implications of that but it's a interesting new wrinkle, is it not? >> neil there, is other e

at eight: 15 eastern time, adp employment numbers for september. at 2:18, president trump will send a message to hundreds of millions of mobile phones across the nation as part of a nationwide test of a national wireless emergency alert system. at 4:00, we hear from fed chair jerome powell as he speaks in washington. it is time for bloomberg first take. we are joined by our cross as a reporter and rachel evans. rachel, italy, big news. willthey are saying is we have a big deficit now, but take care of it in a couple of years. you can see what happened with italian assets. they were relieved, at least at the promise the deficit will come in. >> we saw fear in the market yesterday that we could be on track for another greece. clutch onhe parallel juncker drew. italy tolooking for come out and say it will not be like greece. we had comments suggesting some in the italian government are eurosceptic. so i think today saying that we are going to increase the deficit next year, but rain it again -- rein it in again in subsequent years. alix: ubs says they

a strong adp report drove the 10--year-old to a seven-year high. stocks are going lower.ening for the broader averages this morning. the dow jones industrial average expected to be down about 80 points. the s&p 500 is also down a third of a percent and the nasdaq with a 37 point decline, down one-half a percent. this after the major indices closed higher yesterday. the dow set another record high. it is the 15th record close of the year with the dow industrials up yesterday 54 points. the nasdaq was up a third of a percent, 25 points higher at the close above 8,000 now. in europe this morning markets are under selling pressure. things have just turned mix. the dax index in germany is higher by 4 points. the fq100 is down 64 and the cac is down 44. asian markets finishing lower overnight across the board. markets were closed in china for a holiday. leave elon musk alone, details behind the message rapper consistent yeah west gave to a -- kanye west gave to a class of art students. coaches who score, the highest paid coaches in college football, your been meyer is number tw

comes on the heels of that stunning adp report, 230,000 jobs.at is the adp report, at a time companies are saying they can't find enough workers but the jobs are going up 230-k. maybe people are getting up, finding work, getting back into the labor force. watch the labor force participation rate. ashley: friday's big number. stuart: that is a good point. just moments ago we got a blowout number on services sector. liz: best in more than a year. stuart: a very good number on new private sector jobs created. why the dow is up 119 points. very close to 26,900. show me apple and microsoft. all-time highs yesterdays. 232 on apple. microsoft close to 116. check out amazon in the wake of their $15 an hour to all workers in the united states. there are 13 bucks, getting close to $2,000 a share again. >>> ge, they got their credit downgraded by two notches at s&p the stock is unchanged at $12 a share. oil, we'll get a latest read how much oil is in storage. that could affect the oil price. >>> on the markets, staying with it, bring in jason rotman, lead

big jump in adp, you get a big jump in jobs. the manufacturing index also topping forecasts. indexs. and service rising to 61%. anything above the 50 line signals growth. report is due out on friday. people are now wondering if there will be a stronger gain. we are watching wages very closely. >> yesterday we talked about chair powell having a goldilocks scenario. today talking about getting past neutral. >> he said that before. evans the president of the chicago fed says he sees policy moving to restricted. the president of the philly fed had a different view. he doesn't seem like he is on board with a rate hike yet. is three this year, to next year, to the year after. three i have not seen acceleration yet. we still see these good job numbers. i don't think there is a rush. i am open-minded. its inflation starts to accelerate, i could support a december increase. >> probably a minority view. ast fed members are expecting december hike. hadtaly's budget woes markets a bit shaken. it seems like that seems to be settling down a bit. what has changed? >> a concession of smart g

adp, the biggest jump in eight months despite those back-to-back hurricanes and 227 jobs 10-yr hits ane week high in the yield. the nasdaq and russell down 10% for the month. sharp gains of the open. job hiring trouting expectations >> gm, what would be its best day since may. facebook unveils a new growth strategy some strong global sales boosting kfc and taco bell and ceo of yums brand will join us at this hour >> heading into the final trading sessions, the dow with a 6% drop today. s&p is down 8% nasdaq and russell and so-called correction territory with a more 10% decline. a lot of technician wants to see if the s&p can close above 200 days >> that would be important there is a lot of technical damage done. a lot of people are freaking out of yesterday's rally bob lane did fantastic work on "mad money" last night look at the rotting, look at how bad it is. i would come back and say october is over. it does matter yesterday's seasonal strong day. we are very over sold. we got yesterday and today's bad news because of some stocks are irrelevant i was in the facebook call twice. on

>> no the market looks at the adp and it's fine. charles: we are rooting for a good number?we are rooting for a good number. ♪ a moment of joy. a source of inspiration. an act of kindness. an old friend. a new beginning. some welcome relief... or a cause for celebration. ♪ what's inside? ♪ [laughter] possibilities. what we deliver by delivering. i kept putting it off... what was i thinking? ok, mr. jones... we're all done. i told you it was easy. with life line screening, getting screened for unknown health conditions is so quick, painless and affordable, you'll wonder why you hadn't done it before. so if you're over age 50, call now and schedule an appointment near you. for just $149- a savings of over 50%- you'll receive a package of five screenings that go beyond your doctor's annual check-up. ultrasound technology looks inside your arteries for plaque that builds up as you age and increases your risk of stroke and heart disease. after all, 4 out of 5 people who have a stroke, their first symptom is a stroke. so call today and start with a free health assessment to unders

it wouldn't be out of the ordinary to go into wednesday's adp and friday job report. is strong or wages pick up, likely we jump back up to the high three teens many believe 3% is the down side support should the jobs report disappoint the other big deal, issues of exit when you consider how wide disparity is in our rates versus key rates of japan, china, germany, it is going to be a big job having the central banks try to get along in an exit like the u.s. you think of what's going on with trdraghi, how he is likely gone in 2019, angela merkel not running for party chairmanship in december, likely we'll see major power changes. with angela merkel and mario draghi, what it underscores is a dynamic around the globe that traders need to pay attention to, whether it is tea party, whether it is brexit, whether it is what's going on in italy, whether it is what's going on in general about big government versus less more localized government and national trends that go with it, these certainly seem as strong as ever, and certainly angela merkel paid a price. as a famous firs

we thought the adp report, which just underline that our economy looks pretty good right now. employment included. if there's more jobs in the economy and our wage gains gains, which we finally began to see them last month set of data that does bolster the argument for inflation. rates could go higher, but a little caution here. elizabeth: great to see you. let's get to the kavanaugh confirmation. chuck grassley now say the media is biased against kavanaugh. senators coming out today in his defense going into the room to read the fbi report. the white house saying there's no corroboration of the fbi charges against him. senate majority leader mitch mcconnell is moving towards a debate tomorrow and a final vote on saturday. let's get you at reliance on capitol hill. >> a very politically charged day here in capitol hill today. protesters marching the streets outside the capitol outside the capitol and the rest made inside the senate buildings throughout the course of the day. republicans are frustrated, accusing democrats of moving the goalpost with senator chuck grassley. >> w

the fact that you had a $230,000 adp number. that's good for the economy.ooking at earnings, 20% growth this year, i'm still looking at 8% and 9% for the next couple of years. stock markets don't go su sustainably when earnings are headed north is it an issue? yeah, liquidity is being sucked out of the market, as long as inflation is anchored at 2%, i'm not too concerned. >> bond yields are moving up because things are good. i guess the risk is are they too good are prices going go up enough that jerome powell and the fed will have to change those crazy dot plots and get more aggressive on rates? >> it's possible, but the bigger risk is for asset allocators you can't have all your money in stocks you have to have an asset class that has equity risk in the past that's been bonds. but it's hard to make an argument for bonds over the next couple of years what will investors do they have to turn to other asset classes. it could be long short, tactical, but they have to did something. >> let's talk about that again, here's why bonds are important, folks not only

the rest of the market, we have the adp jobs reports. 230,000 jobs. street -- >> neil: these are service sector? >> the private jobs. >> the service sector are phenomenal. >> the employment component is the highest ever. so we came into the week thinking between 182 and 180 jobs. by friday morning, wall street will look for 230,000 jobs created last month. >> so wall street is not paying attention to the judge or "the new york times" report or the president or he might be in hot trouble with new york state authorities about tax dodging about the like. what do you think? >> that's more of a campaign kind of thing a hit the trump's ego more than -- certainly is not a economic issue. it's one of these things that he feels like a "new york times" hit job to deflate president trump, the guy that said he inherit add few million bucks to the guy that inherited a half a billion. regardless, the people that believe in him know that he built upon the success that his father obviously began. >> neil: does he have to worry about how he and his father, the family,

david: plus we have this incredible jobs report today, the adp report, the big kahuna is on friday. we had 227,000 jobs in october that were created. 900,000 more jobs than job seekers. that's extraordinary. >> i got to jump in on this. i think the jobs numbers are fantastic. i will give anybody credit who wants it, including president trump. david: but? >> good for him. my but is the wages. look, we see nominal wage rising. i heard 3.2% earlier. i don't think that's accurate. more like 2.8% year on year. >> 3.1 with wages and salaries. >> here's my problem. that's the nominal number. i always look to the actual number which is after you factor in inflation which is becoming an issue and other costs. when you look at that number, we are going up and that's great, but we should be going up dramatically more. david: you're getting into the weeds. the thing is how people feel and people feel, what is also real, is people feeling good. consumer confidence is way up. it is affecting people's attitudes. it's very positive. liz: consumer confidence is high. >> implied in your statement is

not that the equity markets weren't already pretty red hot, but we did have good adp jobs and we had a tremendously strong service sector reading from the ism group, second highest reading ever and the highest reading was the second month it was in existence back in 1997. but as i look up at the board, the first thing i see is that the long end is really starting to hit its stride. we've taken out the 3.11 high-year close of the year for 10s. doesn't mean that we're going to replace it yet, we haven't closed, but it is an important first step not only that, as carl mentioned, we shot through that 3.26 level in 30s. for all you technicians out there, there was a variety of patterns and formations that have been violated, especially on the 30-year i won't address them all the important thing is when signals are important, you should get a validation in a number of different systems that you monitor technically, and that does seem to be the case. the 10s to 2s and hopefully we have a one-week chart has moved much closer to 30. it's trading 27.28 this is hugely important for investors be

good news for main street to see higher wages the other one is factory payrolls one sore spot in the adp on the surface, once again manufacturing employment looks good in that report, the lowest increase since july of last year that would provide the markets with nervousness over the tariff war, and the stronger dollar starting to impact on manufacturing employment, which for the past year had been a bright spot. those are the two potential worry spots i would be looking for today. >> david, you have an commit hat and a strategist hat has it been worrisome for you on either front the velocity at which yields have risen? >> it's been breath taking when you consider that the net speculative short position on the ten-year note in the futures and options pits has never been as high as it is today i thought the bond serl sellers exhausted themselves, but i guess they have not. so it's not just the move, but the speed of the move. this isalmost like a mini tape tantrum we have on our hands a lot of this is not just premised on the economic data. a lot of the bump is due to transitory factors,

the payroll company, adp came out with numbers on the right note. it did lead to higher interest rates. we saw that today. in the environment, financials will be well to look at some of the financial stocks. they were all up today. more than the market. with higher rates, compare them to dividends and utilities that you're paying. some higher dividend paying stocks came off to turn lower on the day. it is the kind of day it was paid the dow was up. but we will take it, the s&p fire as well. elizabeth: good to see you. the fbi report on the kavanaugh supplemental inquiry could happen any moment. we will bring headlines when it breaks. at first, the president at the mississippi rally last night defending his nominee, brett kavanaugh. slamming christine blasey ford in my next guest says there's a double standard that when it comes to talking about doctor ford and judge kavanaugh. we will debate this with the rnc spokesperson next. >> the president was stating the fact and frankly facts that were included in the report. everything that judge kavanaugh s

adp was blowout number, signaling friday's jobs report will be blowout number. fed chair powell said the economy is firing on all cylinders and they continue to raising rates. people overnight panicked. we haven't seen this level in the 10-year for the past seven years. if you go back to may of 2011, when the 10-year was around 3.25, i think we closed 3.2, you know gdp was very anemic. gdp is a lot lower than it is today. the natural path for rates to go or move is higher. david: veronica, i will be frank, i bought stocks, s&p spdr right the week of the election i bought. i'm thinking of locking in about 35% gains right right. melissa: you're bragging now. you're bragging. david: get back in after the election. what do you think of my strategy. >> you're a smart guy. i'm hearing it from a lot of financial advisors. people moving more into cash, locking in some gains for now. they will wait until the volatility is over from the midterm election. melissa: a lot of bracing from david asman. david: i'm happy. i'm sharing the wealth. i'm sharing the wealth. melissa:

adp jobs for september, 230,000, way higher than august.umber of americans who applied for unemployment benefits dropped to a 49-year low. trish: i love hearing that. >> definitely a lot of strength in the market this is just a little blip today. trish: i love you said, i'm long-term bullish as well. i've been quite bearish at various times. >> i'm not short term right now. trish: scott, are you, would you buy in this kind of environment? are you down 300 plus? is this an opportunity? >> i would. i think to the point that k part made there, every time market reacted, i still believe he is a dove in hawk's clothing every time the market dropped, 500, 600 points hopefully we are. want to be on the same page. trish: every fed governor pretty much is a dove. >> that's true. they have to be. that is really what the long-term trend has been. here is the thing, trish, every time the market drops 600, 700 points on something, over reacted to the fed it has been tremendous buying opportunity. this is no different. >> i agree with you. trish: we watc

today's adp report, this is a report on private sector job creation for october, blew away estimates. 222,000 jobs created this month. the expectation was something like 189,000. so really nice move there. the employment cost index, the eci, shows wages grew at the fastest rate in a decade. the u.s. economy just clocked one of its best six-month stretches in the past decade. growth up 4.2% in second quarter and 3.5% in the third quarter. check out this headline from the "wall street journal." the u.s. economy is flashing signs it's downhill from here. what? what? you are the article's writer, john. tell me what's behind this. >> as you just said, we just finished one of the best six-month stretches we have had in the past decade in terms of economic growth. and we survey economists every month and the economists we are talking to, the wall street economists who are out there listening right now, are projecting the economy, the economic growth is going to slow down over the next year to 2.5% growth by the first quarter, 2.3% growth a year from now, and the federal reserve is projecting

we, of course, are anticipating week, butlater in the the adp playing the part. >> let's see if there's red there. you have the vix coming down a little bit. it's below 21, but for the aboute in october it's 19.4. you contrast that with 15 in january through september and, a course, china has been source of concern for investors. the backdrop there, disappointing data showing manufacturing slowed to a two-year slow, but beijing is promising more stimulus. is lifting chinese stocks trading in the u.s. >> so much to keep a close eye got some stocks we're keeping an eye on on because time for our top calls, the big movers. arts up, electronic citingded to $110, limited catalysts at the gaming company. a price target of $17. the analysts say the companied years,ggle to grow for less licensing disputes with apple are resolved. ad finally, g.e. updated with $13 price target, citing conviction that the ceo can lead turn-around. up by more than a percentage point and there are your top calls. than a week toss go, mid-term elections six days away and campaigns are in their final push. trump head

yesterday we got the adp numbers.re stronger than expected, but from what i'm reading in this report it sounds like you think hiring may be hitting a plateau. why is that? >> we saw a 1.1% drop in hiring. in general hiring is still strong, just less strong we're seeing a deceleration almost across every industry the biggest ones are agriculture, about a 4.7% drop, that's compared to a few months ago where there was a 32% increase in hiring in agriculture, and manufacturing is still up, but it's up much less than it normally is i feel like every month i come on talking about double digit gains in manufacturing, this month up 3%. >> the two industries you mentioned are ones targeted by the chinese with these counter tariffs. do you think that has anything to do with it? >> it's a strong possibility we don't have a way of directly relating it to tariffs, but that drop in agriculture it's tied to something else going on. and manufacturing also both industries have been strong hiring to see that kind of a drop shows someth

. >> by the way, and if you do adp's number, using adp numbers in the last 21 months have been 345,000or 21 months 34,000. there is no doubt that those jobs have come back despite the fact we were told they never would and this is what i think is president trump's advantage. republicans quite frank going into the midterms, the forgotten men and women come the gainfully employed. stuart: what really shocks me is i don't read this kind of stuff on the front page of "the new york times," cbs evening news or any other news program. >> it doesn't fit the narrative. >> 7.1 million job openings. the number one story in the country. i don't care who you are or what you believe in. everyone needs a job, everyone wants to feed their family and i run once the upward prosperity we started to show. stuart: switching gears a little bit here. i've got news on big tech. jeff bezos says yes, amazon will work with the military. that's very different than workers at google and microsoft. they don't want to work with the military. bezos is doing the right thing here. microsoft and google doing the wrong t

>> for the wage number for sure, expectation on jobs is 185,000 or so jobs to be added adp, not the best8% unemployment, and any number that suggests momentum in wages could give a green light for federal reserve to keep raising interest rates >> up 2.9% last month i believe. >> unless larry is right and productivity starts to turn and companies get more out of each worker in which case you could afford to have wages go higher, not guess an inflationary scare, something that powell yesterday said was a possibility >> sure. then you get into debate whether the bond movement reflects inflation expectations or just plain higher interest rate, something that fed powell now expects. the question is 3 or 4 one baked in for december, we'll start to have debate about next year and whether the economy can handle it. so far we swallowed it well. >> "squawk alley" is next on the other side of this break don't go away. ♪ a moment of joy. a source of inspiration. an act of kindness. an old friend. a new beginning. some welcome relief... or a cause for celebration. ♪ what's inside? ♪ [laughter] possib

any united states terms of the payroll story, our big focus on out,in the adp numbers certainly a factor difficult. wehas been a turbulent month are closing out the worst month in seven years tech is a big part of that. joining me now is jonathan pepper, who is also the author of the book the myth of capitalism, which comes out on november 12. good afternoon. i want to put this in the context of the book you have written as well, which focuses on the captured command of the economic heights from these tech giants we have all been talking about. the last month has seen a significant shift in the market perception of these stocks and i'm wondering if whether or not this kind of fixed narrative that you would expect at some point, things like regulation, personal privacy, all of these other factors start to come back in a way that they haven't from investor perception of these stocks and they alter the wider perception of these is this is as well. is this what you expect to have happened? jonathan: i think there is a growing chorus of criticism of the tech giants. some of this is tied to th

. >> i'm not sure why we're spending time on actman this year i think adp has gone fairly well for himknow it has been a very, very difficult period for mr. ackman. tryon and ppg not really having talked that's significant stakes for trion. they have been fighting battles and ge and procter & gamble -- >> one year anniversary yesterday. >> of peltz -- >> the shareholder meeting. >> and i'm not sure if they won or lost that proxy fight. >> they lost nelson peltz is on the board. >> but the numbers -- >> they claim victory and then had to walk it back and let him join the board the company doesn't have much to show for it. >> now, dan lobe, his track record of late and when it comes to proxy fights -- >> campbell's will be tough for him. i struggle to figure out what he is pitching. first it was an outright sale of the company. then a full board slate. now he's saying they have a fiduciary duty to see whether they sell but they could turn around the business, improving soup, not too specific the best thing they have going is the share price down 22% this year we got a date now also, nove

we saw it in the adp report.ll systems are a go what's unusual about current economic conditions is it's unusual for unemployment and inflation to be this low for this long. but as we return to normal monetary policy, slightly higher interest rates we can expect more volatility. i think that's what you're seeing today >> is this really the comments that took us this leg lower on equities we have known that the economy has been strong. was it powell? >> i think it was powell but then also yesterday we had jp morgan downgrading, em equity, chinese ek chinese equities we saw that was happening. for me i would think powell would take his foot off the gas if rates are doing what he wants to do without him involved wouldn't you think it would be a natural progression or am i thinking too dovish on this? >> talk to us about what it means for other markets. clearly it weighed on u.s. equities today in realtimes is it going to hurt markets more than it would hurt the u.s. market? >> i think it will i think it definitely w

the adp and moody's job report found 230,000 jobs were added last month.t is much better than the 185,000 economists were expecting a that is a big reason that the markets are higher this morning. checking in on the latest numbers, the live big board shows the dow jones at more than .5%, 157 and 158 points, 26,931, getting very close to 27,000. the s&p 500 is up almost .5% at two 29,003 -- nasdaq up about .3% and at 8028. >>> federal judge allowing a lawsuit to move forward against tesla. the lawsuit accuses tesla of mistreating foreign workers and says that they were paid below minimum wage, forced to work 80 hour week max and were threatened with deportation if they reported workplace injuries. tesla says it investigated and found fault with a subcontractor that no longer does business with tesla. the judge rejected the motion to dismiss the lawsuit. >>> workers at the largest beer maker in sonoma county are facing layoffs. the brewing company said that it is cutting 12% of its workforce. it says that sales are slowing as competition is increasing. that

. >> it's both, but if you look at the data today, adp data overshot and eci came in higher so we'reeeing wages pick up. the highest wage growth in year and that will be tough on profit margins for some corporations but, you know, if you're selling paint or refining crude, it's probably a good thing for you. >> we were talking about the dollar it's had a 2% gain on the month, and it's sort of quietly been marching higher every single day. the what levels are you wamp, a -- you watching, and it's been such a big theme of pain for earnings this season. >> and the paint probably gets worse because dollar liquidity will continue tobe an issue. it will get lower as the fed continues to tighten the debt around the world, of course, is at quite left levels, so it is something to contend it it isn't only emerging markets there is a scramble. the swaps market, the forward markets that continue to weigh on balance sheets of european banks, it will reverse a bit because of the disparity between the economies of the u.s. and the economies of europe. that divergence actually will relieve some of