options for another round of stimulus, today we will get a look at pandemic's toll on jobs when the adp is released for last month. take a look, triple-digit gain right out of the gate. the s&p is up 15 and the nasdaq higher by 39. the easing of lockdowns raising hopes of economic recovery and fueling markets again yesterday, s&p 500 and nasdaq up 3 days in a row with dow up 267 points at 4:00 o'clock on wall street yesterday. mark zuckerberg defends leaving president trump's posts up. investigating the origins of the russia probe, rod rosenstein testifying before the senate today, he approved the third and final fisa renewal to surveil carter page. mornings with maria is live right now. global markets this morning with a firmer today. take a look at indices. cac quarante in paris 89 and as lockdowns ease up encouraging nine the euro zone meanwhile. take a look at euro zone purchasing manager's index up from 12 in april to 30.5 in the month of may, that's certainly what was one of the fuels for this market rally in europe this morning. south korea announcing additional $29 billion of st

the april number that adp was right on about 20 million job loss, adp losing about 800,000, service down quickly at the business by size down 435 for small, down 722 for medium and down 1.6 million for large businesses by industry the industries that have been hard-hit remain hard-hit 826 down for transport down leisure and hospitality which had been the leader but a lot of jobs had been lost there becky, i can't explain this. you had 10.4 million claims, use jobless claims in the move may 14 million between survey period mid-april through mid-may. it may be the jobs market is not as bad as predicted on wall street it may equally be that adp has somehow missed what's been going on in the jobs market. the market will have to figure out which one to believe ahead of the friday jobs number where the unemployment number is expected to be 20% and the job loss is supposed to be around 8.5 or 9 million >> very quick question we have to get back to alex gorsky does adp, how do they account people who are fur load and anticipating they will be brought back to work soon? >> reporter: i think that

equities up 19 points on the s&p 500. -- onbeat on the adp will the adp report relative expectations. doggedly. --the bond market, treasury the numbers still ugly. another day of foreign weakness. the euro advances .2%. we will be building on that story later in the program. here is the big issue this morning. the sharp contrast between the social unrest that grips u.s. cities, and the market's single-minded focus on one thing. >>

i for one applaud all of these companies, adp, j.p. morgan chase, yelp, tomtom and apple all providing public data which is helping us understand the economy. this is a public service they're doing. they do, as far as i can tell, the best they can. they tweet their models. it's a new age, joe, where we're trying to measure the economy with much more precision and much more frequency than we ever had. i can't tell you the amount of work i had to do to get this road back barometer ready so, yes, it's a problem if they're wrong. you only can take it as far -- i think investors are very shrewd in this regard what they probably have done here is they've increased the up side -- the risk of an up side surprise in this number but a smart investor is not going all in on the adp number >> i'm not your parent i couldn't be your parent. maybe an uncle if you had a really young -- >> you have two great kids, joe. >> if you had a really young subbling i might be your uncle no, they are is there any other reason to exist, without kids? i shouldn't s

if you are on a payroll you are in the adp report. if you are not getting paid on a payroll, you are not in the nonfarm report. so the number could be significantly higher. this could be a case where they don't compare. i would not put too much into the idea that adp is telling us things are better. mike, as ever, thank you for running us through the data. let's carry on the conversation and figure our we are going next. governments are taking fiscal and monetary action to combat the economic, -- impact of the pandemic. joining us now is peter fishel -- peter fisher. previously served as the undersecretary of the u.s. treasury for domestic finance. is it your sense that the u.s. economy is bottoming out? peter: it maybe, i am always expecting a fishhook covering, we hit the bottom end bounce a little and then i don't know what happens. there might be a steep decline but i think what's important is that we understand that we did not dart at equilibrium -- did not start at equilibrium. we have historic highs and importantly,most histori

those who is not a big believer in adp. would be happy if the number comes in in line with adp but i am still looking for a 7 million drop in payrolls in may. tom: one of the things floating that is different now, we got rid of a lot of low-wage people in restaurants and bars and now we are starting to get rid of a different kind of american employee, salaried fully benefited employee. is that true? there iscertainly going to be some of that along the way. there are so many businesses that are going to have to alter their work structure and basically change their footprint. say howlittle early to things are going to pan out on a permanent basis. i do think we are going to get a lot of workers coming back over the next couple of months. we will have to see when the dust clears. it is early to say, but i think there are going to be areas of the economy that permanently lose jobs and there will be other areas that gain them. francine: where do you see it first? if you look at a v-shaped recovery of jobs coming back, what are t

does this surprise you more than adp?'s get to the panel let's get to our jobs panel for some reaction. all of the furmaniacs have been waiting to see jason furman. he looks better. he got out of his pod storage bin and is into a room jason furman michael strain, american enterprise institute he had to get a nice back drop after what happened. david valan, citi's private bank chief investment officer, rick santelli and mike santoli. i'm going to start because it's easie easiest, that's what you were warning us about, there might be some kids in the shot and there are. you know what, it's a better shot, jason. i've got to tell you, i want to give you credit and kudos for saying this in that political piece. it was like two weeks ago and you said this is going to be like a natural disaster and have a quick snap back. you have to be surprised by this number, aren't you, jason? >> this number is higher than i would have predicted most daily data we have for the economy though show that it hit bottom around april 15th and has

there have been moves in the market reflecting what the adp report wants to suggest. it's the whole reason, pete, that we've had this conversation about value. value versus growth in the next leg, if there's going to be one, of the market rally, right we've addressed it every day i read you a plethora of notes yesterday with that headline, bernstein now is saying, when they look at the question, does the value move have legs you know, there's been this move to beaten up stocks. and there's a room for a catch-up >> there is something that i would like to call healthy rotation everybody talked about this power of five, even though it was far more than the power of five there was a lot more going on underneath all of that than was spoken about enough, i don't think -- i think, on the network. so the reality is, scott, yes, there is rotation to other areas. and because of that rotation and some of those various names that we're all talking about, you talked about boeing, some of the rails we don't talk about very often, there's a lot more going on that's starting to show

the stock market that's the only way to interpret the incredible pin action that we got today from adp's incredible -- their national employment report, and it showed that private sector employment decreased by just 2.76 million jobs last month, when most economists were expecting something more like 9 million. >> hallelujah. >> that and some early positive data about the opening of restaurants and casinos are how the dow surged 527 points today. s&p jumped 1.63% we're gaining back all our losses here, people. you see this kind of animal spirits of the market coalescing with the pent up demand for ravenous consumers and you get the insane gains like we saw by the way, taking us to the most overbought level, 11.1, in the s&p since july 24, 2009. any time it's been this high, it's actually okay we'll have to do more on that later this week. look, i know there was a time really not that long ago when 2.76 million job losses would have been considered horrifying. we'd be going full pc'er i dreamed i saw him and you and me, we put mattresses on the tops of our cars grapes of wrath numbers. we

have adp today, then claims tomorrow. people modeling under 2 million claims, which would be constructive to that really ugly may report. it is a lagging indicator. there's nothing lacking about the hardship that all americans are facing. everyone, even if they are employed, i really want to emphasize this, you are touched by this depression unemployment. jonathan: we've said it repeatedly on this program, that those words we hear every week about things getting better, a little comfort -- getting comfortof little to those suffering. 8:15 -- lisa:: 15 is when we get those adp numbers. at 9:45 a.m., we get some feeling for the services sector with composite pmi's, as well as may services pmi's. trump5 p.m., president has lunch with secretary of state mike pompeo. this is closed to the press. i don't find this lunch particularly interesting. what i find interesting is this is the only thing we know of on president trump's schedule today amid the growing unrest across the nation, when people are looking to the white house to

hays is herethleen with the adp numbers. what did they tell ahead of two big job reports this week? you there, what do the adp numbers tell us about the two big job reports this week? technical snafu. maybe that jobs reports won't be quite so big. let's get a charge and see what i am talking about. adp private jobs, it doesn't tell you exactly how many payrolls, how many jobs are in theut every month government report, and the direction is usually very important redone what we saw in the main numbers is that the forecast looks for a decline of 7 million jobs from the adp report, but it was only down by 2.7 6 million, so that is one third of the drop expected, a big difference. so even though it doesn't give you exact read on payroll, it may suggest again that that number won't be so big. one of the things going on in terms of what economists were looking for, they were seeing the number of jobless lames filed the past few months, essentially indicators from a, and they looked at a much bigger lost or its or something has shifted. tomorrow we get jobless claims for the may 30 week. t

that is to esoteric, just look at the adp. -- the adp report. [no audio] jonathan: so double figures at the end of the year. that is the base case? tom k: that's exact a right --tom p: that's exactly right. jonathan: that is unbelievable. that is a difficult environment. where the market is right now, it is interesting in the sequential positive surprise of reopening away from, the sequential month on month improvement. you got to think about the limit of that improvement, how quickly we can actually get this down back to where we were several months ago. what is interesting here, i think it is so important to understand that a bit ago for , jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz and myself, 10% in employment was on except about, and today we are wishing to get there. lisa: that is exactly where i wanted to go. i wanted to pick up on this idea that we are seeing more hiring at a pretty quick pace, but that is to be expected, right? the economy was closed to prevent the virus from spreading. now people are going to get rehired. what are you looking for

that was confirmed by the adp report. it is worth saying, the adp report still shows substantial job losses in may come as well as jobless claims numbers, which are still rising. we want to be careful. i think that we are seeing overall is a bottoming in the labor market. we think some of these jobs are related to the ppp program, so we want to see how much staying power there is over the next 3, 5 months, after those programs expire. it is also worth noting that we saw the jobs come back where we would expect. jobs that were most affected by the social distancing requirements and shutdowns, like construction, retail, restaurants. meanwhile, there is more evidence of more structural job losses in energy, state and local governments, which are still seeing record job losses. these numbers are big, the biggest we have ever seen, but we had 22 million job losses over the last couple months. is a big surprise, but the data will be tremendously noisy during this period. taylor: throughout this noise, provide some clarity. we h

they still capture the flow back into employment as timely as adp does.are looking toward any kind of high-frequency real measurement-based data that we can. again, the range it tells us, the range of the picture, we know the hole is deep, deeper than anything we have seen in our lifetime. we know we are starting to come out of it. we know may is a month of growth. on the consumer side, on the hiring side, i think that is probably the right picture. again, putting a fine point on that will probably take years until we can actually revise and refine those estimates. i think we are moving in a good direction. the question for me as a forecaster is struggling with how does this resurgence in the virus affect things? we know we will not shut things wen to the same extent, but are living with this incredibly disruptive infectious disease. what does that do to the shape of the recovery? what does that do to defaults and delinquencies and the jobs picture? as a forecaster, what does that do to the shape of the recovery is what i'm grappling with right now. fanta

adp saying companies cut over 2.7 million jobs in may, and well below economists' expectations of 8.7illion. the labor department will deliver the may jobs report on friday, and it's expected to show the plunge of 8.3 million jobs with the unemployment rate at 19.5% from 14.7% in april. adp said it appears the job losses did peak in april as the economy has begun to reopen around the u.s. over the last month. the stock market is rallying higher for the third straight session with investors focused on the economy reopening, continuing to shrug off the civil unrest. nasdaq gaining 47, and s&p higher by 24 points. michelle, back to you. >> all right, jason brooks, thank you. >>> and time now for a look at what is coming up later on "cbs this morning." tony dokoupil is live from new york. >>> good morning, of course, coverage of the protests overnight. happy to say quieter than nights past, but e e is d vea e year-long in e' rprisingesu departments have already implemented change following prior police killings, and wh they think there's more work to do. then on the spiritual front, we sa

one, it could be how adp measures the unemployed.eat furloughed workers differently than the bureau of labor and statistics. we have to dig in and see about that. here's the other thing. the other piece of it might just be that economists tend to be negative. have you noticed that all their predictions lately have been on the negative side relative to the trend? i think it's very hard for them to get a sense for what's really happening at the ground level. it's very hard for them to measure energy and hopefulness. i think what you're seeing in the american people is where they can, americans are getting back to it, they are driving, they are shipping things, they are shopping, they are investing. that's the kind of thing that economists can only guess at but eventually show up in real data. stuart: it's a wonderful thing. just a wonderful thing. americans busting out all over. >> may we have more of it. stuart: yes, sir. thank you very much indeed. brian, all good. see you again real soon. >>> look at this. we are almost up 400 point

it's, it's, the thing is, after we saw the adp report yesterday, it's one of these things where we'reing and hoping that it is better than expected. meanwhile three former minneapolis police officers charged with aiding and abetting in the murder of george floyd. they made first appearance in court, a few moments ago. bail $1 million. they face up to 40 years if convicted. the former officer who put his neck own his neck, derek chauvin. he is charged with second-degree murder. he did not appear in court. he is scheduled to appear on monday. tomorrow it is big day tore investors, big day for america. unemployment rate is expected to hit 20% but as the economy is reopening many wonder if there could be some silver lining, and if we could be turning around quickly? we'll be right back. (soothing music) - did you know that americans that bought gold in 2005 quadrupled their money by 2012? and even now many experts predict the next gold rush is just beginning. so don't wait another day physical coins are easy to buy and sell and one of the best ways to protect your life savings from the ne

according to adp, the private sector lost 2.76 million jobs in may. how is that good news? well, it was well below the estimate of nine million job losses. on another positive note, let's look at energy. brent crude has finally risen above $40 per barrel. it happened yesterday. it's above $40 for the first time in three months. right now it's just slightly below that in the aftermarket session, $39.66. but this is very much in part due to rising demand from china and speaking of china, the pmi which measures the service sector activity there rebounded in may to a near ten-year high. that index rose to 55 in may from 44 in april. any reading above 50 indicates expansion. so even though we look at china right now as an adversary considering how they have treated hong kong, their territory, is it in such a recovery mode that we should look at china because it's a couple of months ahead of our recovery, to figure out what our recovery will look like and then make our moves now? let's bring in our floor show traders. teddy weisberg, in anticipation of this, i will start with you

adp says job losses likely peaked in april. as andrew said, oil is hanging in the high 30s despite consternation about the opec meeting. jim, another day of business leaders addressing racial inequality whether it's gorsky on squawk, moynihan, ballmer, this letter by cory barry, they're out in force >> yeah. i thought that one of the themes echoed by alex gorsky is no more dodging. look, i'm white, i am part of the problem because i'm not doing enough i think there's been a long history of people who have said i'm white, i'm older, i'm a ceo, i can't do anything other than have a committee and put some money at it. there's far more soul searching this time. these are heart-felt sentiments but also sentiments that say i'm rolling my sleeves up. i'm not going to say my heart is going out with them. the hearts going out with them doesn't work it is something that is a platitude, something that gets nothing done and when you hear it now, it's code for, hey, okay, i finished that let's talk about the numbers i think that a lot of co

gary alluded to the adp jobs report.e have the bls, federal jobs report on friday but golly, there is some, the idea is not only maybe v-shaped recovery but maybe the economy wasn't was not as bad as we thought it was to begin with. >> people have to understand that the situation is very different than a traditional recession. this is not the bursting of the technology bubble in 2000. this is the not bursting of the housing bubble in 2007. we intentionally shut the u.s. economy down in march in order to save lives. it was nothing structurally wrong with the economy. we had 3 1/2% rate of unemployment in february, the best, lowest rate of unemployment in half a century. so now we're starting to slowly flip the on switch again and everyone seems to be surprised that the economy is starting to move in the right direction. charles: you know, of course, one of the big debates for investors is particularly on wall street, right? it is always between battle of wisdom of the crowds versus madness of the crowds. that is part of t

. >> it wasn't just the jobs report last week and earlier we had the adp which was the ism in the united states and the pmis around the world, mike so we're going in the right direction and is this a market that is foreseeing any stutter steps ahead when it comes to -- we might not be thinking about sustained chronic unemployment and if we're pricing in a market that's 8% unemployed is this the multiple that you think it should have? the first thing i would say is i don't think most investors are looking at basically the turn on this year's earnings or the next 12 months. if you're investing, chances are you're trying to take a look at what your equity will make over the next serve to ten years and i realize it's a very difficult thing to do. certainly in the context of what, you know, we've been seeing, i think it's kind of hard to why we would get the numbers and i would go back to when we last saw prices at this level and say what is the market forecasting then, and is it a different situation now? i think the answer is clearly it is it may not be as bad as people thought it would be

the way atp starts, it starts as amp, adp and then you need magnesium to make sure we get to atp, which is for energy. so it's a really big deal. - so, people say it's actually as important as coq10. and we're gonna learn that magnesium is like a cornerstone for energy today. - it absolutely is. so there's a lot of things it does. and energy is a big one. - you've got to have it. and like we said, there are millions of people out there who are deficient in magnesium. most of us aren't getting enough in our diet. we're gonna get into why a little bit later on in the show. dr. redcross, you said that magnesium is involved in around 300 or so. i think it's actually more than that. - more than 300. - we'll say 300 biochemical reactions in the body. so, it's a lot of ground for us to cover. so what we did, was today we boiled it down to seven game-changing benefits of magnesium. and i wanna start with number seven and we'll work our way down to number one as we move along here. you say cardiovascular health. so, why yohe ball aunthat whagosay cardiovascular health. important for our hear as,

. >> the latest adp survey shows 2.7 million jobs a large number of states began easing restrictionsthe month. analysts has declared the covid-19 recession over barring a second wave of infections. warner music group completed 1.9 billion ipo on the high note with shares popping well above the $25 listing price as it debuted on the nasdaq warner listing the first debut in the u.s. since the beginning of the pandemic the music label hosts artists such as lizzo, ed sheran and bruno mars >>> the video conferencing app zoom raised $945 million. priced at $21 per share above targeted price range let's look at futures. a bit of red on the board. following similar of what we have seen in europe. underperforming european markets. s&p 500 posted the longest winning streak since february as of yesterday despite protests taking place across america it continued yesterday and value. it will be interesting to see when wall street opens whether they see a little profit on that trade, which is what we are seeing in europe today on that note, let's take a look at auto stocks here in europe. a few fa

the caveat is that adp does not necessarily correlate with the official payroll report as much as wee. nonetheless, it might offer some help that people are returning to work quicker. there may be some people who are starting to come back to their previous old job. there is some help there. women and people of color have been losing their jobs. the next wave of cuts are going to the higher paid workers as well. a lot of it is the people will get their jobs back but there is no saying that it will be too far. it seems very likely that the end of the locked and will mean some millions of people will presumably come off the unemployment rolls and go back place oflow employment. whether it is restaurant or salons or other areas directly affected by the shelter-in-place inquiry meant -- requirements. there have been management, other suppliers who have taken a hit to their revenue. madehem, the way they their money is by cutting workers, office workers. often, higher paid workers, workers who salaries won't be replaced by the unappointed insurance. onwhen you look at the employment expect

lisa: adp numbers were still terrible considering the people that lost their jobs and may, but vastlyow the expectation , less than 3 million versus 9 million jobs lost. a lot of people saying perhaps this indicates a lack of visibility into how quickly people are being rehired, and they are getting rehired faster than some people are expecting. have you seen any evidence to that in the indicators you are looking at? david: it's possible that is happening yet let's keep in perspective how bad a job loss of 2.91 million is. during the financial crisis, we had job losses that were in the .eighborhood comes on top of a catastrophically awful figure the month before. outill take a while to sort isctly how bad the situation . situation is, the that the fine details don't really matter here. what is known is that the economic devastation is vast. jonathan: david wilcox of the peterson institute, fantastic to catch up with you here ahead of this ecb decision, just moments away. that decision around about four minutes away. mistakexpensive when christine lagarde said we are not here to close

tom: special coverage into the 80 point -- the adp report on wednesday. jobs report on friday. we will go beneath the headline data on television and radio at 8:30. right now, an important conversation, and i would suggest my most important conversation of the day on this horrific crisis in america. the news media has been on fire through the weekend speaking about this uproar, the different views, but maybe it comes down to how a mayor speaks to his police chief and how a police chief speaks to his mayor to begin to quiet america and move constructively forward. the police chief of flint, michigan is philip clarke, nes to deal with the always handsome sheldon neeley, who joins us live. the mayor of flint, michigan. i believe you took over office six months ago. it has been one crisis to another, hasn't it? mayor neeley: it has been challenging, but for the grace of god we have been diligent in making sure we can provide the good it has been nothing less than a blessing to be in this position at this time. this community overcomes challenge and we will co

i thought yesterday was absolutely remarkable, to get that adp report of negative 2.6 million, and to call that an upside surprise you imagine me telling you at the start of this year that a number like that would be called a big beat, a massive upside surprise? tom: of course, the backdrop is the s&p market, 7% below the valentine's day peaks we saw. over to the ecb and christine lagarde's challenges is with diminished manned and high-end employment, you get a thrust of disinflation and lower wage growth, or even wage decline. the disinflation feel here is isn't it?e story, jonathan: it is. initially, she was putting pressure on the fiscal policy maker, and i think she has learned that in europe, it is really difficult to engineer. the italian market did pushback. plan they announced a little earlier this morning bigger, the expansion bigger than many on the street expected. euro positive initially. we rolled over a little. lisa sent me a note moments ago on five-year-five-year forwards. what do you see on the indicators that matters now? on raised a-lisa: j really good question. why

you have seen some signs and we asked the other day, you had an adp report that had you thinking maybe the worst is over. maybe the kpi had bottomed i do think it has bottomed i'm concerned about the reopenings, the momentum continuing right now the jobs number was made up of low hanging fruit it's businesses were closed bringing back to work. i still don't believe that job points out all the risks i agree and i'd chie dma as another risk as i handicap those, i don't see them as high probability it's never the risks we know it's the risks we don't know that hit you like the pandemic i think you still have a freebie in this market companies will start reporting very soon. we'll hear them pull guidance, not give out guidance so you have the vacation holiday mentioned. >> forgive me for interrupting p you. meg is standing by with dr. anthony fauci with an interview we have been waiting for. >> thank you so much dr. fauci thank you for being with us today. i want to ask you to give us a status check, if you can, on where we stand in the course of this pandemic. you've seen today's jobs dat

when i look at something like an adp or cdw, great long term stories. i think they consolidate the market share and the smaller players, this is part of the creative destruction of the economy. the smaller market share players go away. >> it's a tech retailer. it's not one that you would think of necessarily ben fitsing in time like this. >> sure. i think we all have dual work environments now we're working from home and at some point we'll be back in the office i think we'll all have to buy more equipment over time secondly, every company was forced to go digital when the stores closed if they didn't have digital outlook or outlet, they were out of business i think there was a whole lot of tape to put things together. i think you'll build out a more robust digital infrastructure as we come out of this. >> bare ri, i'm going to go back to you what struck me about your august forecast is you said you felt it was a pretty secure call are there other i understand caters outthere whether it be economic data or signs within the markets that give you that sor

the lack of any appreciable pullback to let people comfortably get in the economic data this morning, adp payrolls were less bad than expected and it was just another day where there was nothing in particular that popped up that got in the way of the notion that we could have a smooth and relatively strong reopening of the economy. and if you're bearish, you think that's absolutely the wrong thing, it's going to be time before that negative view is born out if it happens, so that's why, again, i think we've had this area of market time where the bulls could take some more control over the tape >> i guess, mike, it's not necessarily a spark or a catalyst but i think it plays into the sentiment, and that's what's been happening in europe this week. >> yes >> in both the last couple of trading days, the german dax in particular which closed up 4% nearly today and puts the dax only down 6% year to date, comfortably the best of the european markets, and putting it in the same sort of bracket as the u.s. indices, which still continue to lead but that's ban factor this week as well. >> no doubt

the adp, ism, today the jobs report the stimulus there's been more discussion this week on stimulus from the ecb, u.s., and japan that story continues the treatment and vaccine story reports of progress continuing there. the three buckets that moves the markets and all three have been positive this week there's a couple of concerns out there. first is this bond yield rally we've been talking about a lot of debate, what is this? is this a reflation, inflation, stagflation? i think we've seen the big move up in the 10-year treasury yields 30 basis points. some of the vigilantes are out for the moment the market is calling this reflation if we go towards 1% on the 10-year, there will be a lot of calls for the fed to intervene the other the valuation story. prices are up, but earnings system still keep coming down. that means the multiple is expand drag matically. what does that mean for the market when are the earnings estimates going to move higher s the big question, remember that -- ceos, 40% declined to give guidance this year. what does that mean? it means they better start having bett

finished higher after another rally today, investors were encouraged by an estimate from payroll company adp there are reports 2.7 million jobs were lost in may economists had expected that number would be closer to 90 million jobs optimism that the worst of the job losses from coronavirus may be behind us push the dow up more than 2% to achieve its 3rd day of gains. >>tonight we're getting our first look at the way the american people are responding to the george floyd protest his death and the way the president has handled all of it. i'm joe khaleel here in washington with the recent poll numbers tell us ♪ here's what we want everyone to do. count all the hugs you haven't given. all the hands you haven't held. all the dinners you didn't share with friends. the trips you haven't taken. keep track of them. each one means one less person vulnerable, one less person exposed, and one step closer to a healthier community. so for now, keep your distance. but don't lose count. we'll have some catching up to do. in an unprecedented crisis... a more than $10 billion cut to public education couldn't

that's why everybody is watching fox business because you have the adp report tomorrow. thursday you have initial claims, you got the jobs report and now we are talking about another round of stimulus. where do we go? >> right. couple that all together and that gets us to the volatility that we have seen in the market. let's kind of back up a little bit. 2019, top headline was always u.s./china relations, tariffs. as time has moved on, clearly we have been focusing on covid and the effect it's had on our economy and the market. we are going to continue to see that. back to what you said before, best quarter since 1998. historically over time, we have seen when we have seen productive quarters of 50% returns or higher, the following quarters have been up 10%. two quarters now have been up 13%. i think if you see the pattern that's there, this market is going to move higher but now we have to throw in two things this market has never seen before. swaef second wave of covid, i don't think we have seen a second wave yet. we still have lingering effects of the first phase. th

around the world, but also we are starting to see some green chutes when it comes to the economic data adp coming out and it was orders of magnitude, tim, better than what was expected. it was a decline of 2.7 versus what was expected which is north of eight in terms of a decline >> yeah. and there may be statistical outliars that make that number funky and on friday we're expecting, what's interesting about it is you will lose 13.5 million job, but you will have rehiring of 8.8 net-net minus 4.7. this is kind of where we are with unemployment is going to be at 17.2. hard to do cart wheel, but relative victory possibly. i do think it's funny because as we talk about the market and guy references this, too we rarely talk about the volatility to the upside and so i don't think we'll have a market special today on the upside, but the reality is it's been extraordinary and it has been ferocious and you mentioned the rest of the world and the ecb meets tomorrow and they'll reignite their bond buying program. european stocks are up 21% and the dax has outperformed the s&p 513% in the last 15 day

according to a new survey by the payroll company, adp, u.s.usinesses cut 2.76 million jobs in may. the damage was concentrated in 2 sectors. 719,000 manufacturing jobs and 826,000 trade, transportation, and 22.6 million jobs since the pandemic began in march. >>> still to come, the popular tourist destination, next wednesday -- when yosemite national park will reopen to the public and the limitations that will be put in place. >>> news out of minnesota as we mentioned at the top of the newscast, prosecutors have charged the other three former minneapolis police officers, in connection to the death of george floyd. the specific charges we are about to learn here in a news conference coming up, on top of that, prosecutors also increase the charge on derek, the former officer who is seen in the video pressing his knee on the neck of george floyd. his charges are now second- degree murder. initially last week he was charged with third-degree murder. all of this, as a black lives matter movement, which started right here in the unit states has gone

the street didn't listen to that the adp number was much better-than-expected and none of this matters to the folks providing individual investors with his and/or advice and instead the market was up because well board millennials were just day trading. i asked everyone to do two things when this whole thing started falling apart. do not take a loss of stock that you'll regret later and try your best to make money on oversold market that was pricing , and now the market is still very selective and the economy is still fragile and the election will soon add another layer of complexity. it's called you want to take some profits but remember you can't make money in the stock market if you are not in the stock market. joining me news rye bmo capital market chief strategist, brian b elsky. this is something, over and over again, when the market fell off that cliff in march, every news channel in the world wanted to give brian belsky on because he had been too bullish. you stood up and you stuck to your conviction, you stuck to your work, are you still as convinced? >> we are and thank you s

rich saperstein you bought cisco and adp. talk to me >> well, boeing is the quintessential vaccine story as we look at it. people are afraid to fly they have problems with the max and it's all well documented they raised $25 billion. they got adequate luquiddy we think the plane gets in the air by year end and if there is a vaccine and we resume flying, they're going to accelerate deliveries and stock will do very well. cisco on the other hand is an interesting story because first of all we think there will be ach a ratcheting up with china and cisco is our national champion when that occurs. the company's got a 7% free cash flow yield they're returning most of it to shareholders they're going to benefit from cloud and software as service. very low 3% dividend yield so, again, another staple that we view we can get into the tech sector with a low exposure and low multiple >> can you give me a little more detail on when you got into boeing i only ask that because the stock feels like it's up 1 million percent off the lows. >>

they look at payroll data from over 120,000 companies and government industries and similar to what adp does that we were talking about last week as well so in the payroll number is the one that feeds into the headline 2.5 million job gain that was positive and that was not coming from people that were claiming they were employed. that was literally coming from the data that businesses have on their payrolls >> this idea of the conspiracy and i get back to this idea of a conspiracy all the people that thought the obama administration was messing with the numbers now are convinced the numbers were right. all of the people that thought the obama administration never messed with the numbers now think the trump administration is doing it. can you walk through why these numbers are the best that these career professionals can come up with just how many households are measured with this what the questions are and why they don't actually mess with the numbers. they want to make sure that they're hands off so they're not seen as being somebody that's actually contaminating the evidence walk us

the adp report suggested the drop would not be as much is expected, but this knocked people on theirloyment falling when it was supposed to move up, rod based job gains across sectors. a chart to put individual perspective. we saw payrolls up to .5 million in may. that is the biggest monthly increase ever. they plunged nearly 21 million. look at the chart. the drop was april. unappointed was supposed to drop to 19% and it fell to 13.3%. not expected and the labor department said there was a misunderstanding with the way some people counted themselves furloughed versus employed and it might have been three points higher on the jobless rates, but not as high as protected. one of the negatives and the report, 21 million u.s. workers remain unemployed. jobless claims show people are still laid off in the millions. unemployment at 16.8% in may, a bigger gap versus the u.s. unappointed rate, the highest since 1984. one more reason many economists are saying there is more fiscal spending needed. president trump called the jobs report outstanding, but he too wants to see more spending. presi

three big jobs reports this week, adp, private sector payroll numbers people follow very closely, showinghat that sector of the economy lost about 2 or 3 quarter of a million jobs during the month. nine million were expected to be lost. much better than that there are still jobless claims tomorrow. we're looking at the big jobs report tomorrow on friday. the trend, with a lot of data. not great data but shows a steady decline in the worst of it. let's get the read from keith fitz-gerald. clearly the markets are responding. they like what they're seeing. do you? >> i like what i'm seeing very much because the narrative is shifting from doom and gloom, even all the negative headlines and all the negative news still to come. it is moving forward. that speaks to hope, that speaks to recovery, that speaks to the american spirit. neil: you know what is wild, when you look at major market averages, keith, you and i gotten into this before, they're substantially from the lows. nasdaq is up 48% to its lows. if you think about it, we're a little more than 3,000 points away from our all-time highs,

everyone at the major banks is trying to figure out how few people they need to bring back >> after adp yesterday, goldman had a note that suggested the number implies significant rehiring and although continuing claims were a little troubling, you could argue that the jobless claims number shows exactly that, that people at least to some degree are being asked to come back to work. >> yeah, look, i think that when you see the notes, the notes tend to be, okay, business was down 60%, 70%, and now it's down only 25% the casinos, well, they were closed now they're only off, say, 30% from where they were and everyone is so happy that things are open that they tend to be taking stocks far higher than you would expect. now, we do have a lot of apologists come on and say look, stocks represent the future, but the fact is that maybe the stocks, if they represented the future a month ago, they got it wrong. who's right, who's wrong if they represent the future, what the heck were they doing all the way down >> it's funny you mention that because, speaking of about a month ago, it was may 13th t

dp you look at adp survey, deep questions will be asked about the numbers.hey missed by 5 million and it's supposed to be surveying the same thing i think there's issues with the data the reality is the drop wasn't as bad as we thought it was going to be. that's good news but i think that this is no time to take our foot off the pedal with regard to keeping the disease down, but also i think we will need to get -- i think the $600 bonus payments for low wage worker who is are unemployed, 60 $0 may be too much you need something or it's widespread poverty after july. the workers are not going to get back to work in a rush we need more money for state and local governments. they'll continue to lay people off. there's more work to be done i think we need to keep our eye on the ball. the market is too complacent we shouldn't be this high given the amount of uncertainty on the economy and the disease. so investors need to be a little bit cautious here. be diversified, recognize this is not a victory here. it's a first step, a long and very treacherous and difficu

49.4 billion for april go through numbers again if you look at all of these compared to what we saw adpesterday maybe a little bit disappointing to market although futures are aren't moving from where they were down 49 on dow takes us into tomorrow maria just mentioned it we are getting the big may jobs' report the estimate, 8 million jobs lot of unemployment rate 19.8% at this point we were up 40.77 million claims all the way through mid-march takes us to 4 million claims in total that is kind of the bigger picture if you will for how many americans have filed for unemployment. maria: 42 million americans having filed for unemployment, in just the last 10 weeks cheryl, thank you so much with numbers markets have worsened in face of this, we are pretty much back to where we were before, but initially move lower. >> to sput in perspective that continuing claims number, that cheryl said came in at 20 -- about 21 1/2 million people it has a lag, but that is above where it was in prior report last week, so that number worsening, the number who filed for first time unemployment benefits, is

last week they are painting a much weeker picture in the labor market than what we saw both from the adps well as the household and the payroll survey still pay attention to claims. it seems like they're still running weeks behind we're still trying to work through the bottlenecks and, yeah, i definitely will be paying a lot more attention to some of these alternative data sources. >> anetta, if people had done that, the disconnect that was so widely publicized between the underlying economy and the stock market would have been easier to understand you don't think it was just the fed. you said there's the fed plus the result of that fiscal stimulus as well that's not everything. there were things happening to explain it that were real and not sort of ee femme err rel like stimulus and the fed? >> change turned clearly positive around mid april and the actual level of economic activity there i think we still see quite a bit of a disconnect between the market and economy we've had one great employment report and that's one great data point. we're still short quite a bit of jobs we still ar

employees on even sometimes not paying, insurance premiums or rent they prioritized that is why i think the adp number was so low, i would like to see this below 8 million tells us that we are ready for bounceback businesses have already been for a questioning -- gearing up for -- opening. dagen: a big jump in average hourly earnings year-over-year we saw in april expectation there up 8 1/2% but why it is because the outside gains wages reflect a larger portion of losses of job losses low paying service jobs, from the coronavirus lockdown people without a high school education, they went from unemployment earlier this year below 7%, in april, to north of 22%, you will see those elevated unemployment levels among the people who cannot afford to be out of work. maria: i will tell you even if we have seen the worst -- these are some really ugly numbers steve moore this week he have a had kevin hassett from white house he said that he had heard something, about a 50% contraction, in this second quarter contraction second quarter going to be so sharp we know we are already in recession do you think

. >> sandra: some more details on that in an adp right up, said thursday that the vaccine is developingational institutes of health will be tested and 30,000 people in the u.s. some will get the real shot and some dummy shot. as scientists carefully compare which group winds up with the most infections. so we look forward to what comes through all of that. meanwhile, meanwhile, what is grabbing headlines as these new spikes happen in florida and arizona. he was the arizona governor that they are confident that while they are seeing a spike in cases, they will be able to take this on. watch. >> from the standpoint of covid-19 and arizona, we are concerned every day that we have the proper capacity and resources. that is what we have been working on for three plus months in the state. that's what we are partnering with the hospitals on, and it is my belief that come what may, we have capacity. >> sandra: so what can you tell us now with more than 2 million cases how much of this is more access to testing and more testing being done versus new spikes and new hot spots developing in the cou

we did see a number yesterday from adp, the payroll processing company, that was a bit better than we showed a loss of jobs, a couple million jobs this month. so this is really a stunning number. the president has already tweeted about it, as you have seen. so you can imagine what the political implications of this are going to be. they are going to substantially change the argument about whether we need more stimulus. they're going to substantially change the president's argument in the election, but we really need to dig into these numbers before we can reach any real conclusion about them because, as i've said, i've never seen numbers this far off expectations in, i don't know, 40 years of watching this stuff. >> chris lu, obviously these numbers can be adjusted in future months, but right now it looks like really good news. "the washington post" talking about there are hopes that may's unemployment rate is near the nader of the crisis, the rocky bottom below which the united states will sink no further. yet with some 30 million workers collecting unemployment benefits, the labor m