adp comes in at 174,000, that was a big surprise. the forecast was 70,000, which matches the forecast for nonfarm payrolls on friday. u can see how closely adp has tracked the nonfarm payrolls, private payrolls numbers over the recent month. you might have that longer-lasting reaction. tom: we will have that wednesday, thursday and friday as we dive into the american labor economy. right now, megan greene joins us, writing a really interesting thoughtful note of what could go wrong. i call at the abramowitz plan, because this is what lisa is always thinking, which is murphy's law and what is going to go wrong is going to go wrong. megan, you are channeling lisa abramowicz here. what can go wrong for president biden? megan: first of all, you have to look at the virus. the virus dictated the downturn and it will indicate the shape of the recovery as well. there are some positive signs. we've managed to address some of the snafus in the vaccine rollout in the u.s., certainly not globally. there are these new variants, the u.k. variant i

joe, do we need $1.9 trillion when you have the adp figure such as today?so much of the narrative is that we expect there to be a strong reopening in the spring or summer, but a slow winter. b but theut-- but it may not be as slow as people affected. adp employment -- services, very strong number, came ahead of expectations. housing is booming. they read all that the slowdown this winter has been as bad as people expected. joining us with more insight ,rich, why is this? why do things appear to be holding up better than economists feared? >> well, first of all, you have to give some credit to the distemper stimulus december stimulus package. -- give some credit to the december stigmas package. money is showing up in some of the data tracked by the bank on debit cards. you have got to get some credit there. generally throughout this whole debacle, the economy has surprised us by proving to be more resilient than we thought. admittedly, things are very bad. the worst forecasts, like double-digit unemployment by the end of this? richard: that's an interesting

adp employment adding numbers, pickup in services. that means a rebound in hiring.hat you are seeing in terms of the futures market ahead of the open in europe at 8:00 a.m., it is green on the screen. s&p 500 futures extending yesterday's rally, had a fresh rally. nasdaq, the tech, 0.5%. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ annmarie: good morning. it 6:30 in the second city of london. i'm annmarie hordern and this is "daybreak europe." market attention turns to the jobs number. janet yellen says market infrastructure was resilient during the gamestop frenzy. esther george tells bloomberg vigilance is key. the end -- bnp paribas up debt trading misses, uncertain outlook amid the pandemic. >> well, it is not anticipated that those record levels that we saw in the pandemic environment are to be reproduced. annmarie: good morning, 6:30 in the city of london. we are counting down until the u.s. job numbers today. we hit a fresh record across wall street yesterday, s&p 500 closing 38.71. we are seeing momentum bleed into the asian market, up .8% on the asia-pacific. in the bond market,

tom: a good adp report, and within the gloom of reality for the part of the american labor economy, we cede nonfarm payrolls go to 50, 70, and 100,000. lisa: i think the biggest data point, the ism services, the unemployment figures that came in, the biggest gain since february of last year and raises the question whether we are getting an acceleration in even the hardest hit areas of the economy, even before we left the restrictions that we see. tom: let us start with you. what is your signal from the bond market? jonathon: it sticks the curve. there is an elephant on the front end of the curve, the federal reserve. two yield will do nothing. it will all be driven not just by supply, but what supply will achieve. higher growth, and better numbers, we are starting to see that a little bit, underestimating the united states' ability to snapback faster and we are seeing evidence of that. tom: for those of you who slide into surveillance at 8:00, you need to get up earlier as you enjoy the next is. lisa: on the bond market. on the credit side you are seeing the recovery phase. apple is se

. >> welcome back standing by for january adp report economists expecting 49,000 private sector jobs dagen mcdowell what do you want to say here what are you expecting, we heard nancy lazar tell us earlier that january was real weak spot in terms of jobs. dagen: right. a continuation of december. and this is roughly in line with what the expectations are for the friday jobs' report private payrolls expectations there, is for 45,000 -- >> much better 174,000 -- 174,000 dagen talk about what we're getting here i am sorry to interrupt. dagen: he go ahead. >> 174,000 adp jobs january we were expecting 49,000 much better than expected this is a headline number let me get more date your reaction to 174,000 jobs added to economy month of january verses estimate 49,000. dagen: terrific news for overall jobs' report expectation for growth just 50,000 jobs but i would add that estimates are really all over the map. you have economists expecting a loss of 250,000 jobs up to a gain of 400,000 he overall, so maybe we get a lift, we had job losses broadly speaking in month of december maybe a lift

we will have full coverage starting today with an adp report on claims.mckee giving us good perspective there. we continue with what global wall street is focused on with all this new trading, of the so-called short squeeze. richard windsor joins us. with decades of work out in the middle east, thanks so much for joining us. i know you trade out of abu dhabi. it's a worldwide phenomenon. do you perceive robinhood and robinhood like social media trading truly becomes a global event? simply will the governments allow it? richard: that's a great question. simply because what you've got is potentially is you -- you could argue the retail protections for the uninformed investor are not strong enough on this app. a lot of people take the view buyer beware. they are not doing any fundamental research. as a big debate to be had on the regulation. i think that will define how global this goes. tom: let's to china were a think there is heir to gin culture of speculation very different. -- there is a different culture of speculation. richard: i think it is a little

when adp released numbers this wednesday, we saw 175,000 private sector jobs.e bls report today those seasonality adjustments will boost leisure and hospitality. we know that's the hardest hit sector you might see well above 100,000 jobs, and hopefully see more folks coming into the labor market look for more jobs. that should keep the overall unemployment rate about the same >> michelle, i was reading and my eyes started glazing over, but we need to talk about it because you're looking for 300,000, and liesman, if he's somewhere, his ears are burning because it has to do with the seasonal adjustments being different this year because of the pandemic, michelle >> it's not that the seasonal adjustments are different, it's that what was happening was different than what we would typically see in january, so normally you have a lot of seasonal hiring in december, and those were temporary for the most part workers that are then laid off in january. obviously in the retail sector, in the leisure and hospitality sector, with more restrictions being put on, you didn't

weakness jobless claims, which includes the 12th of the month, topping 900,000, on the plus side, you have adp beating the expectations, and services and even surprisingly services, ism employment those both coming in higher than the prior month, while a strong jobs number, that could undermine the case of the biden administration for added relief. even the highest forecast on the street puts only a small dent in the millions of jobs wiped out by the pandemic. certainly better to come with the impact of vaccinations. >> how many more jobs does the economy have to add to get back to the level, either in total or by unemployment rate -- really in total that we had at this time last year. >> two pieces of this, tyler about 9 to 10 million jobs were lost the total number the payrolls is down 9 or 10 million, plus 3 or 4 million people have left the workforce, so those have to come back into adjustment to where we were in february. >> steve, thank you very much. morgan >>> well, that begins the conversation with our next guest. despite jobless claims falling to low heest levels. linkedin is out wit

the employment component and that, we have had that, the adp, we will get claims in about one hour 20 minutes. positive 100 k, i don't think that is good but it gets it done, nobody believes that. the trajectory, change of direction. tom: 10 seconds and it is good lisa does this. the media does not spend enough time looking at two yield spread markets versus a single point. jonathan: we will do fives and 30's a little bit later. tom: michael wants us to do tens and 30's. jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, from new york, boston, d.c., san francisco and on sirius xm channel 119, from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: president biden is vowing that he will not retreat on sending out $1400 checks as part of a stimulus package. the president told house democrats he is willing to curve the eligibility for the payments. they suggested making the check smaller and sending them to fewer people. republicans have voted to keep a wyoming representative liz cheney in her leadership role. they turned back an effort to remove her from voting to impeach donald trump. house

some solid, economic numbers helping out the mood as well adp, private sector jobs cam

try to extend the best two-day rally since november futures are steady as we watch amazon, alphabet, adp and three times the estimate and we have one eye of course on gamestop, and amc. pretty steady. a road map begins with so many regulators over gamestop the treasury secretary calling ap meeting to discuss, calling a meeting to discuss the recent retail frenzy. >>> plus, the end of an era. jeff bezos will be stepping down as amazon's ceo in the third quarter. as the company announces its first $100 billion revenue quarter. and of course, we're keeping an eye on all things earnings shares of alphabet are surging this morning strong ad sales. spotify share, they're down, just ahead of the open, with a 24% jump in subscriber, another maim that we will hopefully hit in the next hour ahead >> yes, a lot of interesting calls on spotify in the last few weeks. jim though, i got to unpack amazon to start. a lot of discussion, not just about the slightly acceleration in aws but obviously the transition to jassy and the point has been made this morning that at least in big tech, the play book of

i cannot emphasize leave ability on thursday's claims report versus the mystery of what adp does on wednesdaylisa abramowicz does not get it done, we need to see something better. lisa: i would like to go back to the point, the market response and what is going to be. damian mention jump on yields, an all-time low at 1.49%. are we pricing and fundamentals that have to do with the labor market, or are we pricing fundamentals in which is monetary policy? at what point do better fundamentals mean tighter monetary policy, which is negative for risk? jonathan: let's be clear about that, they are off the tides. lisa: i could make an argument. if you look at some activity, it is looking like tuppy markets when you have reverse inquiries and dividend payouts, leverage -- just saying. jonathan: you could have said that at any point in the last month. tom: i'm waiting for a montage. jonathan: tom, you are up. tom: i am waiting for a montage. jonathan: what would you like it of? tom: of brady. you have to do a brady montage. i work on radio. jonathan: from new york city this morning, good morning. serve

global chief investment strategist le la richardson is the adp chief economist. see you both >> thanks for being here >> stephen, i talk about the rain picture there is a story crossing the wire now j.p. morgan is cutting market effects to market weight because of the rising yield story in the u.s. is the picture changing air play book at all? >> well, look, the u.s. is borrowing a lot and having a higher inflation target, which chair powell downplayed somewhat and luckily he is aware of these things in his testimony yesterday. all of this will probably weaken the u.s. dollar in time. but we've got a tremendous amount of consensus positioning that's underweight the u.s. dollar and the fact that we're seeing, for example, europe push back on sovereignty yields rising the ecb likely to do more. i haven't heard the federal reserve talking about stepping up the qe from 120 billion a month while the biden administration pushes through a record large stimulus. so it's very possible we are in a countertrend rebound in the dollar, which causes a bit of trouble for some o

it might be all these improving economic signs, the economy percolating with adp.cted growth. we've seen it in some retail sales reports. we got a hint of it in boffo numbers out of amazon, showed a whole lot of buying of a whole lot of products. ironically we could be curtailing supply as economy picks up steam. good for the economy, not good for those who pay for oil and gas, right? >> that is exactly what's happening. vehicle miles traveled are increasing, particularly in asia. asia is growing, the economies are growing more rapidly than in the west but you're exactly right. opec plus basically reduced its production. saudi arabia took out a million barrels a day for some period of time. and the u.s. is not going to spend a lot of capital on new drilling, new production anytime soon. the whole u.s. industry is still recovering from the dramatic setback of 2020. they don't have the capital to put into new oil. so we're not going to recover to the level we were at before covid and so, yeah, we're going to convict the availability of product and it is going to come

adp says companies added 174,000 jobs in january.en hard hit leisure and hospitality industry saw gains. >>> a shot of promise to astrazeneca and oxford university out with details on a covid-19 study showing high efficacy with a single dose of the two dose treatment. trials demonstrated efficacy rate of 76% three weeks after a single dose and when delaying the second for 12 weeks or more, effectiveness rose to 82%. ceo of parler says he's been terminated. he said he was terminated by. >>> i am hearing that love is literally in the air this valentine's day. what's going on with that? >> yes. alaska airlines is out to reunite couples separated during pandemic with booking for love sweepstakes. it is giving 100 free flights for locked down love bird to enter. couples can share their stories through tomorrow night at midnight pacific time. michelle. >> sound pretty good. thank you so much. we will check back with you at 6:30 when the stock market opens up. see you then. >> sounds good. >>> 5:40. helping younger generation of san francis

we had a good job report from adp today, bad number on job losses, worst since the '30s.ator joe manchin doesn't agree with ramming covid relief on single party ticket, democrat party line. he is looking for bipartisanship, harmeet they may have boxed themselves in, if they do it this way there is a law called paygo, if you ram it through reconciliation you have to offset through cuts to medicare or cuts to farm subsidies. president biden's poll numbers are dropping in the "quinnepiac poll," down below 50%. covid relief, we may not see it for months says senator joe manchin. >> you make great points. the way they go off, fudge numbers and cuts with projections and projections are usually partisan and fit whatever outcome is desired. so i am glad to see some people pushing back but i frankly don't believe any of that will necessarily last. today's joe manchin can be a different person tomorrow. that is often what happens in politics with the shifting sands of politics. you pile on the fact that in addition to all of this, democrats wanting to push through $15 an hour minim

reporting and analysis, cnn's kaitlan collins, julie hersh field davis of the "new york times" and adp chief economist nela richardson. kaitlan, i want to start with you. there is obviously as you saw in those clips some opposition to the go big approach from republicans, but there's also some opposition from within president biden's own party. so what's the white house's plan to sell this relief bill this week? >> well, you saw last week how they were trying to do that and then by the end of the week it really came to this conclusion from president biden when he gave that speech, basically that they are going to go this alone without republicans. so they've continued toin cyst that they want it to be a bipartisan bill, but you are not seeing any congressional republicans sign on to this. whether or not that changes and they can win over some moderates now that president biden is conceding he doesn't believe that $15 medical minimum wage is going to be included, that's another question, but another thing they know is that this week all of the attention is going to be on president trump

we thought we would get a low number for adp.biggest black eye from the covid-19 fallout is still the jobs picture. weekly jobless claims continue to print in that 800,000 range. week after week after week. and that's more than we saw during the worst week of the financial crisis. as you mentioned, last month's jobs report was a complete bust, a complete whiff, a lot of it in the restaurant industry, most restaurants have been shuttered, right. but i think it's important when we try to look at how are we eventually going to bring the unemployment rate down because it's probably really above 10% right now if you look at the real unemployment rate so you've got to look at where the jobs come from, right. so 50% of nonfarm jobs are with large companies, most of those companies are doing just fine. 50% are with small and medium size businesses and they have been hit the worst by the pandemic, by lockdowns, and i'm talking the with small and medium business owners every day and i don't hear a lot of them talking about aggressive hirin

. >> hello >> i know you took a cue from adp and upped your estimate to 200.me if, i guess, a little south of at least your expectations and some others, too >> yeah. we shouldn't have upgraded, obviously. i think explanation is leisure and hospitality was weaker than we thought the tee decline in december was it but we had another meaningful decline and also didn't get the boost in some of the other areas that we thought was going to come from seasonal factors so the headline definitely on the weaker side in the establ establishment certainly in the payroll numbers. that said, we did have a big increase in the work week. so hours worked in january were actually up pretty significantly. temporary help services also up. some of the more leading parts of the payroll report. i thought they were actually encouraging, even though the headline number weaker than expected, at least what we expected. >> the president a moment ago in the pool spray today said at the current rate it will take ten years to get back to full employment he was responding to the jobs number

some solid, economic numbers helping out the mood as well adp, private sector jobs came in better ism services also strong 59 minutes left of trade, wilfred. we are set for a record close on the nasdaq >> we are. close to the session highs just off by 10 or 15 points on the dow as we stand. coming up on today's show galaxy digital's outspoken ceo weighs in on the rise of the retail trader and furious rally and subsequent pullback in gamestop. plus the company box is taking on docu-sign in the electronic signature space. we'll speak with the ceo about the new strategy, his thoughts on the shakeup at amazon, and very much more and we've got another big afternoon of tech earnings on the way. qualcomm, ebay, paypal among the names set to report after the close. 58 minutes and 40 second until then and until the close of course the s&p up 0.4%. let's focus in on the big stories we're watching today mike santoli is watching the action joining us to talk about amazon and the big bezos news but let's start with you and the markets. >> pretty steady performance really market making the case tha

there's also these conversations going on that, well, we had a much better than expected showing for the adphan exacted. are we -- expected. are we actually going to see a much better than expected report this morning? how did january do, you sunshine. >> well, we're looking for payrolls to move back into positive territory, albeit minimally, between 40 to 50,000, so slightly above consensus. with the unemployment rate steady at 6.7%. on a nominal basis i would say this still would be a disappointment, anything below 200,000 on a monthly basis is considered disappointing. on a relative basis compared to what we saw in december with payrolls falling outright into negative territory and marking the sixth consecutive month of waning momentum, this is a welcome step, coupled with yesterday's improvement in claims, a positive payroll would be a welcome boost of confidence that the market can and will continue to recover as the economy is allowed to reopen and return to some semblance of normal, certainly the labor market is showing signs of improvement from here. maria: so i get you and i underst

adp above consensus. claims number in the week of the survey was elevated above 900,000.e been following also has been negative we'll have to watch that for the jobs number where the consensus is plus 50,000 back to you. >> steve, thank you for that >>> we've got a lot more coming up on the program right after the break. the lessons that investors and top market watchers learned on the rise and fall of game stock. tom farley will be our special guest right after the break. >>> and then sir richard branson and the founder and ceo of 23 and me as that company announces it's going public today via his spac stay tuned, watching "squawk" on cnbc >>> treasury secretary janet yellen meeting with top regulators to go over the reddit rally. joining us to talk about what we've learned and whether he thinks regulatory tweaks are needed is thomas farley. looking at some of your comments we think more people invested in the market is a great thing. democratization. plus if it returns to 8% as you pointed out for 100 years you need to do it to keep up and plan for your financial future

my wife is adp and we have been trying for three or four weeks, calling from 4:30 in the morning to 70, monday through friday, and absolutely nothing. the people that were in the villages and people in the counties where all the big donor money goes, they have been able to get it, but the rest of us are kind of out of look -- luck. host: and you are on the northeast atlantic coast, correct? caller: yeah, we are just above fort myers. host: right. thanks. i mention that because of a facebook post who says jacksonville, florida university hospital has been doing a good job of calling and scheduling 65 and older patients. publix, winn-dixie, and walmart grocery stores are now distributing the shots to the public as well. and in massachusetts, when they open the floodgates for those under 65, watch out says cindy in boston. on facebook, this says it depends on where you live. the closest place i could schedule my mother was a 90 minute drive. there are not a lot of options other than that. what there is only get a handful of doses, so it runs out by the time you get through online. and ta

tom: they like it, on the jobs report we have got adp claims with a jobs report. it's going to be an active end of the week into the super bowl. jonathan: guess who's back, guess who's back. you will like this. lisa: let's get the elephant out of the room, yes. on radio i do have the full cast. tom keene is dying here. let's just put this out there. this is what i do to keep you to a part. -- you two apart. i heard that there were arguments about tom brady, groundhog's day. i took one for the team. tom: the power that jonathan ferro has here in the internal bloomberg machinations. you have to get information on abramowitz. jonathan ferro on the bloomberg. jonathan: did you change the photo? did you change the photo? lisa: you aren't sure? it's 7:03. [laughter] jonathan: we've got some time. we've got some time. we've got two hours, lisa. what's the rush? on the bloomberg terminal, we have the picture of a man that looks quite similar to meet, tom brady. did you do this, tom? tom: well, he's the three point underdog and we know lisa's affection for mr. brady. we ho

we get adp today, you know what that ans on friday, jobs reports is coming stay tuned, "squawk box" willt back when you switch to xfinity mobile, you're choosing to get connected to the most reliable network nationwide, now with 5g included. discover how to save up to $300 a year with shared data starting at $15 a month, or get the lowest price for one line of unlimited. come into your local xfinity store to make the most of your mobile experience. you can shop the latest phones, bring your own device, or trade in for extra savings. stop in or book an appointment to shop safely with peace of mind at your local xfinity store. >>> welcome back, everybody. let's take a look at u.s. equity futures this morning you're going to see green arrows once again these are modest advances. yesterday you did look at significant gains with the dow up by better than 1 1/2%, the nasdaq 2, and the s&p up by about 1.4% this morning, dow futures up 38 points, s&p futures up by 14 and the nasdaq up by 92. let's bring in barry knapp, managing partner at ironside's macroeconomics, and there's been a lot of acti