adp in 12 minutes. jonathan: what is bramo, it, adp wednesday? yields higher by three basis points.being paid to what is happening in the fx market with euro-dollar parity. it is very much about what is happening with pound sterling at the moment. 1.1626. tom: sterling is quite interesting. maybe also looking at some stability in the turkish lira. now a brief into september. daniel morris joins us from bnp paribas. what is the nuance launching from august into september? daniel: at this point, what will not change, we will have some hikes. the payrolls data will inform that. but we should be focusing on the objective of the fed, to get growth down, inflation down, and the interest rate hikes are just a means to an end. whenever it takes, if you will, to get growth down. not only growth, per se, but to get the job market back in line. with the recent openings growing over the recent month, still 11 million jobs down between what employers are looking for and what employees find are available. that means continued higher wage gains. that is not sustainable from the fed's point of view

the adp number today and jobless claims tomorrow.l question is, what did the payroll miss mean for the market? we spoke earlier with the asset management chief market strategist and here is what he said about what it means for the market. daniel: it is going to mean the hike of 75 is good compared to the 75. jon: let's get some perspective from mike mckee, international economics and policy correspondent. what, from your vantage point, where the key takeaways with the adp number? mike: the first thing you could say is they are back after taking two months off to retool their numbers. their numbers suggest the labor market is slowing down. 132,000 jobs created in august is what the adp people found in the private sector. but does that really relate to the rest of what is going on with the economy? take a look at the numbers. they produced for the prior month's -- they plied this with prior month's -- and they are still off. does this mean anything? that is hard to say. adp says you not supposed to use this as any kind of preview for w

after the adp report, not touch market reaction.er by just about 91 taking you to treasury yields, we had a little ease back on the two-year yield market flash here, we have news just crossing, the quarter ends in september, the stock bity th way, it's halted it's changed its outlook compare to the prior forecast of $2.5 billion and this is because of a worsening economic backdrop. weaker economic trends have amplified corrections and supply chain disruptions. so they've seen more cautious buying we've heard this from a lot of different parts of this sort of complex, the chip makers, hp yesterday, cautious buying again, this has halted it's not trading yet on the back of this news, but we will look for that open. >> we've heard that a lot. so, is it in the stocks? or do we get another quarter where we're an even more shocked? >> the stock is down 16% in the past three months. >> but none of this is a surprise anymore it could even get worse in the next quarter >> exactly this is since mid july it's the end of august right now. so in

big about this report i want could be clear adp took themselves out of game haven't had adp report sincesector workers that are out there, in jobs, they wanted to try and get more in line with the jobs' report coming from the government, so if you look at this look at estimates we've got for friday we are looking for 300,000 jobs friday unemployment rate 3.5%, if everything that we are hearing from adp holds true, that they changed things around could, could forecast, a much weaker-than-expected payroll report that we're getting for month of august, again, 132,000 jobs coming through not the expectation of 288,000 looking for that is a 50% haircut jackie as you can see, so want to see how this goes. jackie: that is not a great indicator thank you for context cheryl really important number may not have been accurate predicting having said that jason looking ahead to friday your thoughts, when this came in half of what was expected. >> definitely weaker indicates a slowing labor market. what i think is important to know is 3 1/2% unemployment, rate? one of the things that the fed disdepend

charles: [laughter] >> here's, that adp line jumped out at me and the reason is adp of course monthly they haven't been doing last two months. charles: retooling but must still be talking to the fed. >> they give their raw data to the fed and the fed has 450 hp hp -- phds what i'm hearing from the fed, they flailed the employment number every month. the household survey picks upturns before the payroll sure say does. it peaked in march. yeah, it is entirely possible job growth not as strong as the payroll survey suggestions. >> i don't know why, the media is loathe to mention the household survey anything other than u3. i got 20 seconds. i will go back. you've been more or less very hawk irk for lack of a better word. do you still feel like the fed has a long way to go? >> yes. i've been doing this for 35 years. for 35 years the fed says they will tighten and don't tighten as much as they say. what's changed from the 35 years? we're back in a period of high inflation. if you look back at the '70s and early '80s they ended up having to go further than they said they would go and i thin

in fact this morning the adp unveiled the new jobs report. they retooled the whole thing.sus. couple things stood out to me, job stayers, made 7.6% a year ago, that is their wage gains. if you change your jobs, 16%, that is sort of corroborates the notion that the labor pool is not just people who are out of the workforce, joni, i think it is people who are working right? they're never currented but on the prowl it seems to me. that is a huge difference. if i can get 16% i'm beating inflation. otherwise i'm losing? >> yeah, you know, it is a good job market still. with all of the headline numbers and i know all eyes are on friday to see what the august i don't know report will be but job openings are up. wages are significantly up. iemployees are still in a good position. if they're not engaged in the work they're doing, if they really find themselves they're not happy, it is still is a good time to look for other work but they need to remember that they can't burn that bridge, you know, and not have a reference for their current employer but it can be a good time to look

adp says business payrolls rose one third 2000 -- 132,000. the jobs report due friday will show private payrolls rising by 300,000. said rose the cleveland fed president says the federal bank will need to raise its benchmark rate above 4% by early next year and she does not expect them lower through 2023. she expects inflation to drop to a range of 5% or 6% this year. >> the 5% increase is at any particular fomc meeting ended the key fed funds rate will depend on the inflation outlook that depends on the assessment of how rapidly demand and supply is coming back into balance and supply pressures are being reduced. >> india's economy grew 13.5% in the second quarter. still, it missed economists forecast for expansion. particularly, in the vast services sector helped buy loser mobility restrictions. u.s. regulators approved covid boosters from a moderna and pfizer and biontech. concern is growing about potential new waves of illness in the coming months. covid vaccines until now have targeted the original covid strains even as different mutatio

we have the adp private sector payroll report ahead of the government report on friday. weaker than expected and some noting of wage moderation which i know it doesn't necessarily correlate to the monthly jobs number but that is something the fed and the market appears to want to see. on the other hand, the european inflation number, 9.1%, matching a record high again is a big problem. >> without a doubt now it's interesting the reflex move in the market after that softer adp number was a rally attempt. bounce did not really hold but it sort of indicated the way traders are leaning, what they would like to see perhaps in the jobs data on friday. absolutely in terms of the euro data, ecb talking about an even bigger hike over there, dollar strength all that stuff is tightening up financial conditions which is what the fed wants but it's a bit painful for financial assets while it happens >> if you think powell has a tough job, tightening into a recession and energy crisis, mike, thank you. mike santoli we'll get to our top story now snap making a comeback the company anno

as the fed hikes interest rates and the fed's inflation fight may have gotten a bit harder today's adp report showed that annual pay shows 7.6% year over year in august and this is the first month that adp has released wage data as they sort of tweaked and re-did their formula. secondly, the cleveland fed president loretta midwesester si would be a mistake if inflation peaked too soon. with the fed looming in september how should investors be positioned? let's find out from courtney garcia senior adviser with payne capital management always good to have you with us. >> president mester says inflation is not tamed do you agree or have we seen the worst of it at the very least? >> i think we're continuing to see signs that inflation likely has peaked just most recently we did get the pce numbers out and it is showing that inflation is starting to come down if you look at the total number or the core pce and we're seeing the figures come down as the cpe over the previous months the question is is it coming down enough that the fed will reduce interest rates and that's what the markets are

adp is changing, actually, so the calculation method.he bottom line is the job market is where the fed be focused. this is a very strong number. this to push rates up even higher. i do think bond prices probably need to come down. all of this leads to credit issues that we have to talk about. but i think we have ranges to trade in, and i think positioning is well-prepared for a long december. >> coming up, several stocks and even bigger losses in the broader market this week. in any be worth a by? trade or fade is next up. bed bath and beyond cratering after announcing a restructuring plan. by the market isn't buying what they are selling, literally. when fast money returns. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ this? this is supersonic wifi from xfinity. ♪ ♪ it's fast. so gaming with your niece has never felt more intense. incoming! hey, what does this button do? no, don't! welcome to the fastest internet on the largest gig speed network. are you crying uncle ed? no! a little. only from xfinity. unbeatable internet made to do anything so you can do anything. >>>

adp reports hiring is downshifting in a economy buffeted by rising interest rates. data -- the smallest gain after an increase in july. a new survey by pwc showing layoffs -- a pull including more than 700 executives and board members across a wide range of industries. business and leaders are cautiously optimistic about future prospects. joining me as pboc joined global leader for people and organization. one of the most interesting results for me is the fact that the people you told -- pulled are optimistic. more than 83% focusing business strategy on growth. only 30% see recession risk. do they see something other people don't? >> thanks for having me. what businesses are saying is throughout the pandemic they have basically said that we have no investment capacity to grow. that is really why they are leaning into growth because is the is something they control. can they make investments in digital? can they drive digital revenue streams? can they protect their business from cybersecurity? to do that, you need specialized talent. you need to attract it, retain an

we won't need adp. >>> are these regular calendar year companies that are not ready by august 1st withretailers. fiscal years are different this could be a quarter ended in july. >> are you asking why? >> why they expect us to jump when they totally miss the reporting period and we are still supposed -- why can't you get it done? if it ended in july, why >> about when they think they get air time not on cnbc. elsewhere. >> most people, if your quarter ends in june, how long does it take to do taxes do you get extensions? >> of course >> so do i >> this is an extension. >> if they miss the july 31st deadline, we shouldn't report. you missed we'll catch you next time for the next quarter we'll report those you missed your window i'm sorry. a lot of them would be happy a couple from last week. neel kashkari says the central bank is committed to the goal of 2% neel thinks we are a bit away from there. >> we are going to do everything we can to avoid recession. we are committed to bringing inflation down and we are going to do what we need to do we are a long way away from achieving 2% infl

you look at adp, look at their chart. that is a measure of what's going on in our country. so we can fall prey to the idea that president xi, who i think we put in office basically forever because we went and did exactly what the chinese nationalist -- what we all didn't want, which is us going to taiwan, and we act as if, why we decided to saber rattle, it hasn't done anything, but i just think we're not china. we're the u.s. and we're trading like we are china, and that's future trading going back and forth because there's nothing to do. the equivalent of choppy, when they should be doing nothing there's nothing. i mean, what happens if i came in here in the future, there's nothing. >> by the way, they very well may be a half hour, an hour into trading. >> take me off last week, where we had two obviously key indicators show that inflation is at least tamer than it had been a cpi that was flat, a ppi that was down a little bit. and a market that responded quite positively to that and the prospect perhaps the fed will be done sooner. >> when you say it's peak inflation, th

reporter: according to payroll processer adp adding inflation worries reported annual pay up 7.6% for the month. private payrolls grew by just 132,000 in august. that is a dramatic deceleration from the 268,000 july gain. economists had expected even more, a gain of 300,000. service jobs accounted for most of the new jobs with 110,000 added positions. leisure and hospitality grew by 96,000. meanwhile shares of snap are rising after the company announced it will lay off 20% of its more than 6,000 member workforce. ceo evan spiegel telling the employees the company needs to restructure to deal with financial challenges. in addition to the layoffs, the company will scrap several projects including its pixie photo taking drone and its lineup of snap premium shows. the company say being its 8% revenue growth rate is well below expectations. and finally shares of hp are lower after the company reported fiscal third quarter sales down 4.1% from a year ago. the numbers pushed lower by 32% decline. number of notebook computer units sold. earnings a disappointment. hp lower than expected quarte

before i let you go, adp last time, it is rocking. what do you like now? >> marriott vacations.within consumer discretionary. marriott vacations i like. charles: what do you like? >> i don't have any money. i have to sell something to buy something. my last buy was disney after the quarter. i thought it would be extraordinary quarter. this is one of the few streaming companies that will be profitable that is the new metric to look for. >> want a certain level i was saying safety but not necessarily the safest stock in the world? >> no, it hasn't. other names. value is taking a back seat in the last six weeks off the rally, mostly a growth move. i have to upgrade the portfolio. charles: what i like you're both cautious, still doing things, right? you don't like, like you say you don't want to miss this completely. so i appreciate it. keep rocking. erin, david, thank you both very much. hey, folks, coming up my take away the dumb money doing it again. they are beating the smart money. i don't know how the hell they keep doing that but i can't wait to talk about it. i can't wait to

we got adp this morning and it was a big miss, a 50% haircut from the estimates and looking for $2288k and came in at 130,00 private sector jobs and the market was looking at this number today because 80p has are configured how they collect data to match the government report we'll get on friday. does this signal to you we'll get a rougher jobs report come friday than we're expecting right now? >> well, yes, cheryl, listen. by all historical standards, we are in a recession so the jobs, the jobs numbers are going to reflect that. you know, the problem is we all tend to live minute to minute, second to second if you will and in terms of revising numbers, there's nobody better at revising numbers than the government. i mean, they spend their whole life giving us numbers and coming back one month or two months later and revising those numbers either upward or downward. i would suspect that the employment numbers are going to deteriorate as we move forward. listen, the fed is raising rates, they're trying to deal with inflation. the goose that lays the golden egg is the economy, and they'r

you know, we've got private adp numbers tomorrow, the jobs tomorrow friday and in two weeks the cpi number'll see. >> which sector or what types of stocks would you be looking to buy on your pretty rosy outlook for the fall, which you don't hear too often. >> as always you look at some of the technology mark just mentioned whether it's the googles, the amazons, the lone duration assets, i think you can wait a bit launch because it looks as if growth could be scarce as the fed continues to raise rates continuing to look there and also some of the oversold retailers who have one-time inventory dislocations as everybody tries to figure out as demand and supply normalize, which is happening pretty independently of the fed. >> retail holding up a little better best buy is having a good day despite reporting comps down double digits. it was less bad than expected. barb, thank you. good to get your take. we've got two minutes to go in the trading day. mike, what are you seeing in the internals today? 1% down on the s&p and volumes as well, because we're still at the end of august. >> overall volu

do you think they're accurately counting what is happening in small businesses because for a while adp of those businesses with 50 or fewer employees? >> they better. they better wake up in terms of what is happening in the small business economy. what happens on main street you know, pretty much you know, sets the pace what happens in the broader economy and you know, they have been sending out you know, smoke signals for a while now in terms of what this means for jobs for investment, for local economies and you're right, just when you hit a big company like amazon, what it does for small business contractors, again that is what happens when you burden and you impose these new costs on larger companies. small business suppliers. again that has an impact on their workers. so on every policy at the beginning, charles, we need to be moving 180 in the opposite direction and support all american businesses. charles: yeah. >> particularly at this really challenging point in our economy. charles: karen, keep up the good work. >> thank you. charles: the backbone of our nation and again you k

we begin with stocks again to the downside after adp said jobs came in worse than expected.was 132,000 jobs for august. that was half the forecast. look at this fed officials are now talking about interest rate hikes above 4% and economic growth slowing to well below 2% and goldman sachs is now warning u.s. house prices will slow dramatically in coming quarters. this is sparking fears of a recession. there is all that. now there is this, hillary vaughn is in washington with more on how businesses are dealing with a rise in crime coast to coast. hillary? reporter: good evening, liz. well president biden says he knows a lot of americans do not feel safe anymore and he says the answer is more police. but that is a big disconnect from some mayors in the president's own party who are not ramping up hiring of police to get a handle on high crime. it is forcing businesses to limit hours, move locations or close shop entirely because they don't think it is safe to be open for business. according to the national retail federation, about 69% of retailers say they have seen an increase

adp rofrt of private payrolls for august coming out.on friday. we also have chicago manufacturing survey to look out for the month of august as well as fresh fed commentary. >> and worrisome eurozone inflation numbers as well. we've got also a wave of layoffs sweeping across american businesses in the past year. what's the latest you can tell us on that? >> well, the latest big headline around this is from snap. news came yesterday report from verg snap will lay off 20% of staff, 1,000 employees. at the same time, two senior executives from the company are heading for the exit and they're making their way to netflix. now, it's been a difficult year for snap. you'll remember back when the company delivered q2 results shares dropped more than 25% in a single day. the company missed on both the profit and revenue lines. and those disappointing results kick started a wave of selling and a wave of disappointing earnings from a number of companies in the social media space due in large part to weak online advertising revenues. year to date, s

if we have we fish adp day on wednesday and even more important, that could reverse things.re other things analysts could think about. if you look at cleveland cpi, it relatively flat. you may see analysts come out and say he was sufficiently interdependent and we will get another low cpi print. so they saw some things could stop the route 4 asian currencies and the rest. >> you mentioned what was going on in the jobs report a moment. what was the other argument about chinese trade? >> they had been very strong on trade. the big part of that is strong trade accounts. for do you, it is decidedly weekend. they are narrowing quiet significantly. goldman sachs provides three or four very strong reasons why analysts will be wrong and his chinese numbers will remain quiet strong. i linked to earlier research that i did that predicted much the same. >> paul, enter this conversation. >> it seems that the equity side of the market has been a little bit delusional. it will be more mild and meeker. a little bit of a slap in the face. when try to get going again, i think you look at the

but this is the very beginning of the end of help one >> well, adp would ratify that 132. we were looking for 300 or so. that's the forecast for this friday even the white house yesterday said we expect job numbers to cool >> i know. they seem to be unaware of what's really happening. >> that's what they want you talk about powell's got to get wages down got to get wages down. wage growth down, excuse me. >> run on commodities. he's dealing with a congress that was trying -- that was acting as if we had 10% unemployment, right? congress has -- you want a job congress will give you one it will be a high-paying job all right? you'll have to learn something about engineering. i was with an engineer this weekend, and i can do 3d printing of pieces like lego. >> i'm not sure that's a bad thing. >> what? >> when you talk like that, engineering jobs isn't that what we want? >> we don't need as many people working at bed bath as we have because when you have those minus 26% comps, david, that tends to leave lot of empty shelves. >> understood. my question -- >> where did it go at

we won't get adp because they continue to refine methodology after having a series of hedwig face. but, we will pay attention to the view. the deadly has an op-ed on bloomberg saying as we said wishful thinking on inflation doesn't help powell at this point. >> okay, so food. we know that ukraine has been able to get through. there's a lot of green coming. we know that fires got crushed and refinery margins means what the consumer is going to pay which means by chevron has a big upstream and downstream, if you are valero you don't want to be in these stocks. i think people don't understand, oil has come down substantially from the price at the pump. the tenure has come down substantially, which would say things are running to. i just think that people who are fighting the fed and fighting the tape in the same way in november if you are bullish you found the fed and the tape. we don't want to be against when it switches. when it switches it is always an unbelievable time. everything is going the way of rules. >> 94 as we are a few days out from opec plus. >> inventories from chips,

it's jobs week in america like joe points out on wednesday, we will get our first look at the retooled adp private payrolls report. that report has been paused for two months while the company changes the methodology by which it calculates those numbers. and on thursday, we're going to get the jobless claims on friday, of course, the all-important nonfarm payrolls, the government august employment report it's a light week for earnings on the microeconomic front the company specific side of things you have best buy, hp inc. and enterprise reporting tomorrow. campbell's soup reports on thursday as well joe, if you look at the overall picture for some of the catalysts, everybody has to point right now to the jobs report is that going to give them even more fuel to raise by 75 basis points, three quarters of a percent, or is it going to show us easing where they can say, maybe it's time we can take the foot off the gas a little bit and see how the economy plays out, joe. >> crazier than usual in trying to figure out what we're supposed to hope for supposed to hope for, you know, more people no

on wednesday, we get the first look at retooled adp private payroll report that report has been paused for two months while the company changed the methodology. on thursday, we get jobless claims and second quarter productivity data and then friday is the august employment report light week for earnings. if you are not done now, we're just not going to do them. if you can't get your work in at this point -- how many extensions do you get in school? retailers are different. there are companies on different fiscal years it is almost september let's go we are worried about next quarter. i finally do my taxes after the extensions, it is next year. i'm not done yet are you? i'm not done i'm afraid to say that with 87,000 people breathing down my back. >> it leaves you ahead of the game in the end. right? >> best buy. hp hp enterprise report ctomorrow campbell's soup on thursday. broadcomm. and then, mike, we talk about artemis. i want to talk about artemis >>> we will. the world's biggest proponent of electric vehicles says we still need oil and gas elon musk says civilization will crumble